Assessing the Impact of Sea Level Rise on Representative Military Installations in the Southwestern US Dr. Bart Chadwick SPAWAR Systems Center Pacific.

Assessing the Impact Assessing the Impact of Sea Level Rise on Representative of Sea Level Rise on Representative

Military Installations in the Southwestern USMilitary Installations in the Southwestern US

Dr. Bart ChadwickDr. Bart Chadwick

SPAWAR Systems Center PacificSPAWAR Systems Center Pacific

SERDP SymposiumSERDP Symposium

December, 2010December, 2010

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Project TeamProject Team

SPAWAR Systems Center PacificSPAWAR Systems Center Pacific – Dr. Bart Chadwick, Dr. Pei- – Dr. Bart Chadwick, Dr. Pei-Fang Wang, Marissa Brand, William WildFang Wang, Marissa Brand, William Wild

TerraCosta Consulting GroupTerraCosta Consulting Group - Dr. Reinhard Flick, Dr. Robert - Dr. Reinhard Flick, Dr. Robert Guza, Dr. William O'Reilly, Dr. Peter Bromirski, Dr. Adam Guza, Dr. William O'Reilly, Dr. Peter Bromirski, Dr. Adam Young, Walter CramptonYoung, Walter Crampton

UCSD: San Diego Supercomputer CenterUCSD: San Diego Supercomputer Center – Dr. John Helly – Dr. John Helly

SDSU: Global Change Research GroupSDSU: Global Change Research Group – Dr. Walt Oechel – Dr. Walt Oechel

US Geological SurveyUS Geological Survey – Dr. Tracy Nishikawa – Dr. Tracy Nishikawa

Army Corps of EngineersArmy Corps of Engineers - Dr . Kevin Knutti - Dr . Kevin Knutti

Moffat-Nichol/BlaylockMoffat-Nichol/Blaylock - Matthew Martinez, Issac Canner - Matthew Martinez, Issac Canner

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Technical ObjectiveTechnical Objective

Coastal military installation Coastal military installation vulnerabilitiesvulnerabilities

Region-specific SLR scenariosRegion-specific SLR scenarios Southwest USSouthwest US

Evaluate & apply framework Evaluate & apply framework – Naval Base CoronadoNaval Base Coronado– Marine Corps Base Camp Marine Corps Base Camp

PendletonPendleton

44

InstallationsInstallations

Marine Corps Base Camp PendletonMarine Corps Base Camp Pendleton Nation’s premier amphibious training Nation’s premier amphibious training

basebase Occupies approximately 125,000 acres Occupies approximately 125,000 acres

along 17 miles of the southern along 17 miles of the southern California coast California coast

Supports ~41,000 personnelSupports ~41,000 personnel Current value over $3.6 billion Current value over $3.6 billion

Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton

Naval Base CoronadoNaval Base Coronado Serves a critical mission to arm, repair, Serves a critical mission to arm, repair,

provision, service, train and support provision, service, train and support the U.S. Pacific Fleetthe U.S. Pacific Fleet

Unique combination of airfields, Unique combination of airfields, airspace, training ranges, and airspace, training ranges, and installationsinstallations

Supports 21 squadrons, >220 aircraft, Supports 21 squadrons, >220 aircraft, 3 carriers, and ~36,000 personnel3 carriers, and ~36,000 personnel

55

SourcesSources - key SL - key SL drivers for drivers for southwest USsouthwest US

PathwaysPathways – Link – Link sources to sources to receptors via receptors via physical impactphysical impact

ReceptorsReceptors - - common DoD-common DoD-specific installation specific installation elements elements

Site-specific Site-specific questions and questions and scenariosscenarios

Assessment Framework – Assessment Framework – Sources, Pathways and ReceptorsSources, Pathways and Receptors

Sources/Stressors Pathways Receptors

Local Mean Sea Level Waterfront structures

Subsidence and Uplift Inundation Coastal structures

Atmospheric-Oceanic Processes

Flooding Buildings

Storm Surge Erosion Training and testing lands

Precipitation Intrusion Civil Infrastructure

Tides Water LevelMilitary and Civilian

Personnel

WavesProtective Buffers and

Natural resources

Non-Tide Residuals

66 Southwest SL Today

Southwest SL 2100+

Sea Level Today

2 m

3.5 m

Predictable Extreme Tide

Extreme Storm Wave Runup

Maximum Potential Flooding Elevation 6 m

PDO

ENSO

0 mOcean Warming + Ice Melt

Long-Term Risks

Episodic Risks

1.5 m

4 m

Assessment Framework - Conceptual ModelAssessment Framework - Conceptual Model

Flooding, Beach & Cliff Losses - Combinations ofFlooding, Beach & Cliff Losses - Combinations ofMSLR, Climate Variability, Tides, Waves & RunupMSLR, Climate Variability, Tides, Waves & Runup

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Sea Level Scenarios - MethodSea Level Scenarios - Method

B1,A2 Future Climate Scenarios

CCSM3 Global Climate Model

Wave Watch III Model

CDIP Model

Local Waves & Runup

Local Non-Tide Residuals

Harmonic Tide Model

Predictions

SERDP Prescribed Sea Level for 2100

ACoE Quadratic

Model

Local Mean Sea Level Curves

Local Tides

Groundwater

Protected Bays and Estuaries

Exposed Shorelines

Sea

Lev

el S

ou

rce

Co

mp

on

ents

To

tal

WL

88

Sea Level Scenarios - CombinedSea Level Scenarios - Combined Combine prescribed future Combine prescribed future

MSL scenarios with SL MSL scenarios with SL variability over a range of variability over a range of return periods return periods

Tide and non-Tide (CCSM3-A2, 2000-2099)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

Water Level (m NAVD)

Retu

rn P

erio

d (Y

ears

)

Year

Month

Week

Day

Decade

SS0160 Total Runup

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Water Level (m NAVD)

Retu

rn P

erio

d (Y

ears

)Year

Month

Week

Day

Decade0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Met

ers

(NA

VD

)

NRC I

SERDP 2.0

NRC III

NRC II

MSL = 0.774 m

Include relevant SL Include relevant SL components based on components based on exposure - groundwater, exposure - groundwater, protected bays, exposed protected bays, exposed beachesbeaches

Tide + NTR

Tide + NTR +Runup

SL Variability vs. Return Period

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Coastal System DelineationCoastal System Delineation

Compile geophysical system dataCompile geophysical system data Compile installation dataCompile installation data Integrate within a geospatial visualization and analysis Integrate within a geospatial visualization and analysis

systemsystem– Capability for superimposing hydraulically-connected water levelsCapability for superimposing hydraulically-connected water levels

Coastal System DelineationCoastal System Delineation Digital terrain with GIS infrastructure overlaysDigital terrain with GIS infrastructure overlays

Naval Base Coronado

MSL

Beach Training Areas

Beach Training Facilities

Beach Rec Facilities

Near-Shore Buildings/InfraShip-Shore Interface

Stormwater Conveyance

Ammunition Bunkers

Airfields

Inland Buildings/Infra

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Cum

mul

ative

Flo

odin

g (%

of i

nsta

llatit

on)

Total Water Level (m NAVD)

““Dose-Response” type Dose-Response” type curves for installation curves for installation sensitivity to sea level sensitivity to sea level riserise

1111

Physical Effects - Exposed ShorelinesPhysical Effects - Exposed Shorelines

Long-term Long-term equilibrium shorelineequilibrium shoreline

Seasonal variability - Seasonal variability - historical datahistorical data

Constrain with sand Constrain with sand budgetbudget

Translate shoreline Translate shoreline change to future change to future terrain modelterrain model

Long-Term Shorelines (Seasonal Variations

and Sand Budget Effects)

Current Mean Shoreline

Current Summer Shoreline

Ocean

Future Beach (Land)

Future Winter Shoreline

Seasonal variations ~ 40 meters between summer and winter

Beach line if sand budget is positive

Future Summer Shoreline

Beach (Land)

Current Winter Shoreline

Current Conditions

Future Conditions (2100)

Future Mean Shoreline

Beach Retreat at 2100 from SLR (Brunn’s Rule)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Bea

ch W

idth

(m

NA

VD

)

Historical Profiles

"Bruun-ish" Model (NRC II) + Seasonal

PN1110

1212

0.5 (>2045)

1.0 (>2070)

1.5 (>2085)

2.0 (>2100)

Week 2.40 2.90 3.40 3.90 4.40Month 2.80 3.30 3.80 4.30 4.80Year 3.39 3.89 4.39 4.89 5.39

Decade 3.63 4.13 4.63 5.13 5.63Century 3.80 4.30 4.80 5.30 5.80Week 1.99 2.49 2.99 3.49 3.99Month 2.36 2.86 3.36 3.86 4.36Year 2.80 3.30 3.80 4.30 4.80

Decade 3.17 3.67 4.17 4.67 5.17Century 3.34 3.84 4.34 4.84 5.34

NB

C

SS

0160

W

ith R

unu

p

MC

BC

P

PN

111

0 W

ith R

unu

p

Location/ Condition

Return PeriodBaseline

(m NAVD)

Future Increase in MSL (m)0.5

(>2045)1.0

(>2070)1.5

(>2085)2.0

(>2100)Week 2.40 2.90 3.40 3.90 4.40Month 2.80 3.30 3.80 4.30 4.80Year 3.39 3.89 4.39 4.89 5.39

Decade 3.63 4.13 4.63 5.13 5.63Century 3.80 4.30 4.80 5.30 5.80Week 1.99 2.49 2.99 3.49 3.99Month 2.36 2.86 3.36 3.86 4.36Year 2.80 3.30 3.80 4.30 4.80

Decade 3.17 3.67 4.17 4.67 5.17Century 3.34 3.84 4.34 4.84 5.34

NB

C

SS

0160

W

ith R

unu

p

MC

BC

P

PN

1110

W

ith R

unu

p

Location/ Condition

Return PeriodBaseline

(m NAVD)

Future Increase in MSL (m)

Assessment of VulnerabilityAssessment of Vulnerability

Defined scenarios and stakeholder identified key Defined scenarios and stakeholder identified key vulnerabilitiesvulnerabilities

Screening-level assessment accounts for MSL+variability - Screening-level assessment accounts for MSL+variability - assumes un-modified shorelineassumes un-modified shoreline

Potential impact to key receptors from problem formulationPotential impact to key receptors from problem formulation Highlight scenarios under which these receptors would be Highlight scenarios under which these receptors would be

impacted impacted

1313

NBC Baseline NBC Baseline MHHWMHHW

NBC MSL+1.0m NBC MSL+1.0m Yearly ReturnYearly Return

NBC MSL+0.5m NBC MSL+0.5m Yearly ReturnYearly Return

NBC MSL+2.0m NBC MSL+2.0m Yearly ReturnYearly Return

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SummarySummary DoD is developing methodologies to evaluate vulnerability and DoD is developing methodologies to evaluate vulnerability and

adaptation at coastal installationsadaptation at coastal installations These risk-based methods incorporate quantification of stressors, These risk-based methods incorporate quantification of stressors,

pathways and receptors pathways and receptors Vulnerability to sea level in the southwest is related to the co-Vulnerability to sea level in the southwest is related to the co-

occurrence of high tides, high waves, surge and El Niño conditions occurrence of high tides, high waves, surge and El Niño conditions Sea level rise can dramatically influence the return period of what Sea level rise can dramatically influence the return period of what

today are viewed as “extreme events” today are viewed as “extreme events” Vulnerability to these events can occur via flooding, inundation, Vulnerability to these events can occur via flooding, inundation,

erosion, intrusion or water level itself erosion, intrusion or water level itself Each installation has a unique sensitivity to these conditions Each installation has a unique sensitivity to these conditions