Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area Matei Georgescu Matei Georgescu Center for Environmental Prediction – Rutgers Center for Environmental Prediction – Rutgers University University The Fourth Symposium on Southwest Hydrometeorology The Fourth Symposium on Southwest Hydrometeorology Tucson, Arizona Tucson, Arizona September 20-21, 2007 September 20-21, 2007
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Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area Matei Georgescu Center for Environmental Prediction – Rutgers University The Fourth Symposium.
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Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area
Matei GeorgescuMatei GeorgescuCenter for Environmental Prediction – Rutgers UniversityCenter for Environmental Prediction – Rutgers University
The Fourth Symposium on Southwest HydrometeorologyThe Fourth Symposium on Southwest HydrometeorologyTucson, ArizonaTucson, Arizona
September 20-21, 2007September 20-21, 2007
Topic Outline
• Introduction/Scientific Question
• Method of Investigation/Numerical Modeling
• Impact of Hypothetical LULCC over Greater Phoenix area
• Assessment of 30 years of LULCC over Greater Phoenix area
• Can we quantify the impacts of LULCC on local and regional weather and climate?
• What can we say about specific land-atmosphere interactions and possible feedbacks controlling these impacts?
• With expansion expected to occur for at least the next 50 years what consequences may be expected?
• As sprawl continues in the Greater Phoenix area, can we use lessons learned from this case study to mitigate effects from other rapidly urbanizing cities in arid areas (e.g., Las Vegas, Riyadh)?
Dominant LULC representation for fine grid employing circa 2001 (a), circa 1992 (b), circa 1973 (c) landscape, and a hypothetical land cover scenario (i.e., pre-1900) with anthropogenic influence removed (d).
Summary of all 12 experiments performed. For each experiment, the analysis time consists of the period lasting from July 1, 12Z through July 31, 12Z. ** denotes experiment used as Control simulation which was validated against observations.
LULC Year from which Initial and Boundary Conditions were used to force RAMS
WET Years DRY Years
NLCD92 1990** 1994
Pre-Settlement 1990 1994
NLCD92 1984 1989
Pre-Settlement 1984 1989
NLCD92 1983 1979
Pre-Settlement 1983 1979
Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL
Observed three-hourly 1.5 meter air temperatures (black) and RAMS simulated 2-meter temperatures from the control run simulation (red) during the period July 1st -12Z to July 31st -12Z, 1990. Units are in [°C]. The time series represent temperatures averaged over five stations: (1) Sky Harbor International Airport, (2) Phoenix Encanto, (3) Phoenix Greenway, (4) Waddell, and (5) Maricopa Agricultural Station.
Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL
RAMS simulated ensemble differences (NLCD92 - Pre-Settlement) in (a) first atmospheric level [24.1 m] air temperature [°C] and (b) dew point [°C], for the WET years; (c) first atmospheric level [24.1 m] air temperature [°C] and (d) dew point [°C], for the DRY years. Each calculation is for the analysis period: July 1, 12Z – July 31, 12Z.
Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL
RAMS simulated ensemble differences (NLCD92 - Pre-Settlement) in (a) total accumulated precipitation [mm] for all 3 WET years; (b) total accumulated precipitation [mm] for all 3 DRY years;
Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL
Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL
(a) domain-averaged [lat: 33 to 34/lon: -112.2 to -111.0] vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature difference (NLCD92 - Pre-Settlement) for selected DRY year cases; (b) as (a), but averaged over each DRY year simulation for the analysis period: July 1, 12Z – July 31, 12Z.
RAMS simulated ensemble differences (NLCD01 minus NLCD73) in (a) first atmospheric level [24.1 m] air temperature [°C] and (b) dew point [°C], for all three WET years; (c) first atmospheric level [24.1 m] air temperature [°C] and (d) dew point [°C], for all three DRY years. Each calculation is for the analysis period: July 1, 12Z – July 31, 12Z.
RAMS simulated ensemble differences (NLCD01 minus NLCD73) in surface sensible heat flux (a) for all three WET years, and (b) all three DRY years. RAMS simulated ensemble differences (NLCD01 minus NLCD73) in surface latent heat flux (c) for all three WET years and (d) all three DRY years. Each calculation is for the analysis period: July 1, 12Z – July 31, 12Z. All units expressed in W m -2.