Assessing the Impact and the Challenge of New Technologies Richard Perlman [email protected] Lucent Technologies Bell Labs Innovations.

Assessing the Impact and the Challenge of New

Technologies

Richard [email protected]

Lucent TechnologiesBell Labs Innovations

A few starting thoughts

• In a world in which ideas are becoming increasingly dangerous we are in the perhaps unenviable role of spreading danger

• In a part of the world where so many have relatively little it seems the willingness to give is paradoxically increased

• I am honored to be allowed to support you in you work and efforts

A Model For Invention

Desire / Motivation Problems / Opposition

NewIdeas

A Model For Invention

Global Cooperation Bandwidth Limitations

NewLink

A Model For Invention

Review Technology High Cost of Fiber

SILK

List Positive Motivating Factors

– Faster transfer rates for large datasets

– Move up to 5 to 10 mbs

– Community services

– Provide connectivity to k12

– Speed for distance learning (real media)

• Problems– Last mile -> wireless

– High cost of infrastructure (monopolies)

– Uncooperative management -> creative hr

– Human resources

List Negative Motivating Factors

• Prestige of having faster connection that nearby country/institution

• <next>

Hopes and Expectations

• A wise person knows his/her hopes and expectations and can tell the difference between the two.

What Did you Expect?

• Based on past projects, and initiatives, think about what you expected and what you actually ended up with.

• Did you always get what you wanted?

• What were the unintended results?

• Were they better, or worse than you had hoped?

Wisdom

• … grant me the Courage to change the things I can,

the Serenity to accept the things I Cannot change,

and the Wisdom to know the difference…

Wisdom• As you think about your network, what are some

of the things you can change…• 1)

Wisdom• And, what are some of the things you cannot

change…• 1)

Think about your networkA model for realizing your potential

How large can you think

before you are lost in the

noise?

What is the smallest

element you can consider?

What do you need to

survive?

What must you deliver to your

customers?

What makes you unique?

Think about your network

• Make sure that you are adding value and not just cost.

• Find your niche.– If you are going to re-invent the wheel,

invent a better one.

– Tackle the problems nobody else is interested in.

Think about your network

• For every thing there is a time and a purpose.– The trick is knowing what it is the right

time for now.

Think about your network

• You gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em. (The Gambler – Kenny Rogers)

Think about your network

• Be careful what you outlaw, forbid, prohibit, proscribe, disable and stop.

• It may have been your future.– Do we really know what is happening?– What is the difference between Napster and

new advances in distributed computing?

Think about your people

• It is easier to channel a motivated person than to motivate an uninterested person.

• Look for loyalty in direction an diversity in means.

• Creativity requires space for failure.

Think about your people

• Come mothers and fathers throughout the land And don't criticize what you don't understand Your sons and your daughters are beyond your command Your old road is rapidly agin' Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand For the times they are a-changin'. (The Times They Are A Changin’ - Bob Dylan)

Think about time

• Perlman’s Quandry:–Why is there never enough time

to do it right…

–…But, there is always enough time to do it again?

Think about time

• Where have you been, where did you come from?

• Where and what are you?

• Where and what do you want to be in one week, one month, one year… ?

Think about direction

VS.

Think about direction

But, don’t become a dinosaur! Be prepared to change if circumstances dictate.

Think about direction

A solid foundation A clear goal

Good management

A good plan

Think about health

DevelopmentExploration and

development of new ideas and processes

ExpansionContinually growth

and adaptation

InteractionExploration and

development of new ideas and processes

ManagementA renewable, reliable supply of resources

IdentityKnow who you are and

what you exist for

ConcentrationRemove waste and

inefficienciesInte

rnal

Ext

erna

l

Think about a coffee break

But not yet… We still have • Pavel Horvath• Elchin Aliyev• Sirodjiddin Nabiev• Yuriy Yakymenko & Volodymyr Tymofieiev