A framework is being developed for the purpose of assessing the environmental impact of livestock industry development scenarios (fig. 2). This framework aims to be flexible enough to cater for the diversity of livestock producAon systems in Africa and Asia; rapid enough to be useful for decision makers; and, sophisAcated enough to improve confidence in decision making. The framework takes a value chain approach, allowing users to add or remove value chain steps as necessary. Stocks and flows are modeled across spaAal and temporal scales, providing results for key indicators in four impact categories. Impact categories and indicators include: depleAon of available water resources, changes in soil water holding capacity, and change in water quality; Soil erosion, change in soil organic maIer, change in soil ferAlity Global warming poten1al from emissions of methane, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide Biodiversity and landscape mulAfuncAonality The framework has been piloted on dairy development in Tanzania and will be extended for other species and systems in 2015. Assessing the environmental impact of livestock industry development pathways Fraval S, Lannerstad M, Herrero M, Notenbaert A, Ran Y, Paul B, Mugatha S, Barron J, Morris J Pressure on environmental resources must be considered in ambiAons to meet nutriAonal and livelihood needs into the future. Human populaAon is forecast to increase from 7.7 billion today to approximately 9.48 billion in 2050, with an increase of over one billion in Africa alone. ConsumpAon of animal source foods in SubSaharan Africa is forecast to increase by 25% in 2050 (fig. 1). MeeAng increased demand for livestock products will depend on a strong environmental resource base and funcAoning ecosystem services. Decision makers and industry advocates, therefore, will need to consider alternaAve development pathways and the related environmental impacts. How can such complex environmental assessments be incorporated into investment and policy decisions? An iniAal pilot test of the framework was undertaken for proposed intervenAons in the MoreMilk in Tanzania project. IntervenAons were targeted at increasing milk yield through farm level acAviAes. Preliminary results suggest that these intervenAons will have minimal impact on water resources, moderate increase in nutrient mining and a moderate net increase in emissions. Net impacts vary by system (depicted in map 1). All environmental impacts were less on an efficiency / per unit product basis. In Lushoto district, 18 threatened or endangered species were idenAfied. Impact for biodiversity could not yet be quanAfied, but management strategies can be put in place promote biodiversity. This pilot test supports the noAon that environmental risks and benefits can be idenAfied ex ante. Simon Fraval [email protected] ● Dar es Salaam, Tanzania ● Tel +255 686047617 ● www.ilri.org Acknowledgements: This is a collaboraAve research agenda between ILRI, CIAT, SEI and CSIRO Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates FoundaAon This document is licensed for use under a CreaAve Commons AIribuAon –Non commercialShare Alike 3.0 Unported License November 2014 Challenge Evidence Response image Map 1 – Lushoto preliminary results Source: CCAFS Figure 2 – Framework for environmental assessment Figure 1 – Projected change in meat and dairy consumpAon
Assessing the environmental impact of livestock industry development pathways
Jun 23, 2015
Poster prepared by Fraval S, Lannerstad M, Herrero M, Notenbaert A, Ran Y, Paul B, Mugatha S, Barron J and Morris J for the ILRI@40 Workshop, Addis Ababa, 7 November 2014
Pressure on environmental resources must be considered in ambitions to meet nutritional and livelihood needs into the future. Human population is forecast to increase from 7.7 billion today to approximately 9.48 billion in 2050, with an increase of over one billion in Africa alone. Consumption of animal source foods in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to increase by 25% in 2050. Meeting increased demand for livestock products will depend on a strong environmental resource base and functioning eco-system services. Decision makers and industry advocates, therefore, will need to consider alternative development pathways and the related environmental impacts. How can such complex environmental assessments be incorporated into investment and policy decisions?
Pressure on environmental resources must be considered in ambitions to meet nutritional and livelihood needs into the future. Human population is forecast to increase from 7.7 billion today to approximately 9.48 billion in 2050, with an increase of over one billion in Africa alone. Consumption of animal source foods in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to increase by 25% in 2050. Meeting increased demand for livestock products will depend on a strong environmental resource base and functioning eco-system services. Decision makers and industry advocates, therefore, will need to consider alternative development pathways and the related environmental impacts. How can such complex environmental assessments be incorporated into investment and policy decisions?
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A framework is being developed for the purpose of assessing the environmental impact of livestock industry development scenarios (fig. 2). This framework aims to be flexible enough to cater for the diversity of livestock producAon systems in Africa and Asia; rapid enough to be useful for decision makers; and, sophisAcated enough to improve confidence in decision making. The framework takes a value chain approach, allowing users to add or remove value chain steps as necessary. Stocks and flows are modeled across spaAal and temporal scales, providing results for key indicators in four impact categories. Impact categories and indicators include: -‐ depleAon of available water resources, changes in soil water holding capacity, and change in water quality; -‐ Soil erosion, change in soil organic maIer, change in soil ferAlity -‐ Global warming poten1al from emissions of methane, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide -‐ Biodiversity and landscape mulA-‐funcAonality The framework has been piloted on dairy development in Tanzania and will be extended for other species and systems in 2015.
Assessing the environmental impact of livestock industry development pathways Fraval S, Lannerstad M, Herrero M, Notenbaert A, Ran Y, Paul B, Mugatha S, Barron J, Morris J
Pressure on environmental resources must be considered in ambiAons to meet nutriAonal and livelihood needs into the future. Human populaAon is forecast to increase from 7.7 billion today to approximately 9.48 billion in 2050, with an increase of over one billion in Africa alone. ConsumpAon of animal source foods in Sub-‐Saharan Africa is forecast to increase by 25% in 2050 (fig. 1). MeeAng increased demand for livestock products will depend on a strong environmental resource base and funcAoning eco-‐system services. Decision makers and industry advocates, therefore, will need to consider alternaAve development pathways and the related environmental impacts. How can such complex environmental assessments be incorporated into investment and policy decisions?
An iniAal pilot test of the framework was undertaken for proposed intervenAons in the MoreMilk in Tanzania project. IntervenAons were targeted at increasing milk yield through farm level acAviAes. Preliminary results suggest that these intervenAons will have minimal impact on water resources, moderate increase in nutrient mining and a moderate net increase in emissions. Net impacts vary by system (depicted in map 1). All environmental impacts were less on an efficiency / per unit product basis. In Lushoto district, 18 threatened or endangered species were idenAfied. Impact for biodiversity could not yet be quanAfied, but management strategies can be put in place promote biodiversity. This pilot test supports the noAon that environmental risks and benefits can be idenAfied ex ante.
Simon Fraval [email protected] ● Dar es Salaam, Tanzania ● Tel +255 686047617 ● www.ilri.org Acknowledgements: This is a collaboraAve research agenda between ILRI, CIAT, SEI and CSIRO Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates FoundaAon
This document is licensed for use under a CreaAve Commons AIribuAon –Non commercial-‐Share Alike 3.0 Unported License November 2014
Challenge
Evidence
Response
image
Map 1 – Lushoto preliminary results
Source: CCAFS
Figure 2 – Framework for environmental assessment
Figure 1 – Projected change in meat and dairy consumpAon
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