Assessing the agricultural negotiations with ATPSM September 2006 David Vanzetti Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities UNCTAD, Geneva United Nations Conference on Trade and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Development
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Assessing the agricultural negotiations with ATPSM September 2006 David Vanzetti Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities.
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Assessing the agricultural negotiations with ATPSM
September 2006
David Vanzetti
Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities
UNCTAD, Geneva
United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development
ATPSM
• Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model
• Static
• Deterministic
• No stocks
• 35 commodities
• 160 countries plus EU25 plus RoW.
Outline
• Features
• Documentation
• Coverage
• Trade policies
• Outputs
• A likely scenario
• Results
ATPSM Documentation
• Downloadable from website unctad.org/tab• Online help from interface• Updates from website• This ppt presentation available on request
Features
• Free• Easy to use for and researchers, policymakers and
negotiators • Graphical user interface• On-line help function and
handbook available• Report writer - Export to Excel
Limitations
• Bilateral trade issues (non-spatial)• Tariff line level cuts• TRQ definitions (=> overfilled)• C++ version ≠ Excel version
• Global import quota• Bound in-quota tariff rates• Bound out-of-quota tariff rates• Applied tariff rates• Distribution of quota rents• Export subsidies• Domestic support• Production quota• Not suitable for RTAs
Two tier tariff structure
ATPSM output
• Consumer surplus
• Producer surplus
• Tariff revenue
• Quota rents
• Welfare
• Commodity prices
• Production
• Consumption
• Exports
• Imports
Market Access: Current Tariffs
Bound Applied
High-income countries 51 48Middle-income countries 60 25Low-income countries 78 39
High-income countries 4 3Low & Middle-income countries 20 13
Agriculture
Non-AgricultureSource: UNCTAD TRAINS, WTO
Specific Problems:• Tariff escalation• Tariff peaks
European Union: bound and applied tariff rates
Note: New AVEs (Paris), Five products with tariffs above 500% not plotted.