Assessing Risks due to Climate Change

7/31/2019 Assessing Risks due to Climate Change

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2/25

Xgjcn oa @oexnexp

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:%0% Xfn Ennh aoz ge Gppnppinex oa Zlpmp%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 44

:%8% Xfn Xgzdnx Zndloe %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 0%0%:% @ozgc Znnap %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 7>7>

8% Xfn Rzokn`x @oiroenexp%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 7174

8%7% Igle Ojkn`xlqn%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 7174

8%:% Zlpm Gppnppinex %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 7174

8%0% Pòrn %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 7174

8%8% Xfn G`xloe Rcge Hlineploe%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 7476

8%>% @fgedled òehlxloep geh rocl`| znproepnp %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 767% Xfn Rzokn`x$p Tozm Rcge%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 7


3/25

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4/25

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5/25

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6/25

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7/25

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le xfn pgin tg|, geh lzznqnzpljcn &@fl`flcelpm| geh Fngc#7


8/25

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6


9/25

:%8% Xfn Xgzdnx Zndloe

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10/25

0% @zlxl`gc `cligxn zncgxnh Lpp~np aoz ògpxgc geh lpcgehror~cgxloep

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òexgilegxloe oa dzo~ehtgxnz geh p~zag`n tgxnz &[g`m geh Cgzpne%7


11/25

0%:% R~jcl` Fngcxf geh Pganx|

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F~zzl`gen Dnozdnp oa 7


12/25

xfn f~zzl`gen# ingp~zled :>)02 ilcnp tlhn rgppnh tlxfle ge npxligxnh 7> ilcnp oa Pge K~ge# R~nzxo Zlòp`grlxgc# cngqled g xzglc oa hnqgpxgxloe le lxp tgmn%

Tflcn zgleagcc g`zopp xfn lpcgeh qgzlnh dzngxc|# poin gzngp zn`nlqnh ~r xo :1 le`fnp oa zgle tlxfle g xtnex|)ao~z fo~z rnzloh% Xfn zgleagcc znp~cxnh le acoohled# cgehpclhnp geh `gxgpxzorfl` coppnp le leazgpxz~`x~zn%Xtncqn rnorcn oe xfn lpcgeh oa R~nzxo Zlò tnzn mlccnh# xfznn gp g hlzn`x znp~cx oa xfn pxozi# geh elen oxfnzpgp ge lehlzn`x znp~cx% Leazgpxz~`x~zn lirg`xp tnzn dzngx= 4>. oa tgxnz geh pntgdn pnzql`n tgp copx geh 2. oa ~xlclx| rocnp geh `gjcnp% Ge npxligxnh 00#770foinp tnzn hnpxzo|nh% Zogh hgigdn tgp npxligxnh gx (:: ilccloe geh hgigdn xo r~jcl` p`foocp tgpnpxligxnh gx (:2):> ilccloe% Gdzl`~cx~zgc hgigdnp tnzn gcpo pldelal`gex tlxf 4>. oa xfn òaann `zor# .oa xfn rcgexgle geh jgegeg `zorp# geh 1>. oa gcc ro~cxz| hnpxzo|nh%

Oqnzgcc òpxp xo xfn ^P iglecgeh geh lpcgeh xnzzlxozlnp zng`fnh (>%< jlccloe le xoxgc òpxp# tlxf ge npxligxnh(: jlccloe oz iozn le R~nzxo Zlò gcoen% Oe O`xojnz 7># 7


13/25

Copx Xo~zlpx Znqne~n :


14/25

r~jcl` fngcxf le xfn zndloe# j~x xfgx xfn fngcxf)`gzn hnclqnz| p|pxni tlccmnnr rg`n tlxf xfn `cligxn zncgxnh gprn`xp xo xfn |ngz :2:>= tfnxfnz ozeox xfn p|pxnip gzn `grgjcn oa òrled tlxf oxfnz po`lgc `fgednp lp~e`nzxgle%>

0%0% Lpcgeh Nòp|pxnipLpcgehp gzn nvxzninc| qgc~gjcn gp clqled cgjozgxozlnp aoz

~ehnzpxgehled prn`lnp ghgrxgxloe geh nqoc~xloe% Aoz nvgircn# i~`f gpxfn Dgcgrgdop gz`flrncgdo rzoqlhnh nv`nrxloegc lepldfx aoz @fgzcnpHgztle le xfn 7602p# xfn iozn ge`lnex Fgtgllge Lpcgehp fgqn ple`njnòin znòdel{nh gp g rznilnz plxn le xfn tozch aoz p`lnexlal` px~hlnp oanqoc~xloe le lpocgxloe% Jnaozn f~ige leac~ne`n# xfn Fgtgllge Lpcgehpfgh eo gexp# znrxlcnp# girfljlgep# oz igiigcp &nv`nrx aoz oen jgxprn`lnp,% Xfn zo~dfc| :#222 prn`lnp oa geligcp geh rcgexp xfgxp~``nppa~cc| òcoel{nh xflp `cligxl`gcc| geh xorodzgrfl`gcc| òircnvgz`flrncgdo oqnz xfo~pgehp oa ilcnp oa orne o`nge oe xfn tlehp# j|

acogxled# oz gxxg`fnh xo pxozi)hzlqne jlzhp &@gzcw~lpx 7


15/25

znpnzqn oa R~nzxo Zl`o pfotnh xfgx le`zngpled lexneplx| oa f~zzl`genp`o~ch znh~`n xfn hneplx| oa xznnp le xfn aoznpx geh xfnlz xoxgc jloigpp#geh agqoz xfn hnqncorinex oa agpx)dzotled# pfozx)clqnh geh tnnh| prn`lnp#le`c~hled leqgplqn prn`lnp &O$Jzlne# nx gc% 7


16/25

nvxzninc| hlqnzpn òzgcp# igedzoqnp# geh png dzgppnp gzn rznpp~znh j|hnaoznpxgxloe# gdzl`~cx~zn# òepxz~`xloe# rocc~xloe geh alpfled%

@cligxn)zncgxnh `fgednp ò~ch gaan`x òzgc xfzo~df iozn xfgeplirc| le`zngpnh tgxnz xnirnzgx~znp; le poin Rg`lal` k~zlphl`xloep#`fgednp gzn nvrn`xnh le gnzlgc nvrop~zn h~n xo png cnqnc gcxnzgxloep

gppo`lgxnh tlxf NEPO% Le xfn @gzljjnge# nzoploe/pnhlinexgxloe ig| jn`g~pnh nlxfnz hlzn`xc| xfzo~df acoohp oz lehlzn`xc| xfzo~df le`zngpnhnzoploe aoccotled alznp gppo`lgxnh tlxf hzo~dfx òehlxloep% Le ghhlxloe#f~zzl`genp geh x|rfooep `ge hgigdn òzgc znnap% Aoz nvgircn#F~zzl`gen F~do le 7


17/25

ò~zpnp oa g`xloe% Xfnpn le`c~hn rzo`nppnp xfgx gzn lexnzxtlenh tlxfdoqnzege`n% Xf~p# xfn pòrn oa xfn rzokn`x leòzrozgxnp xfn po`lgc gehnòeoil` lexnzrcg| oa òccn`xlqn hn`lploe rzo`nppnp%

Xfn `grg`lx| xo lircninex po`lgcc| hnplzgjcn rocl`lnp# tfl`f ig|eox jn rznpnexc| ror~cgz oz tfl`f ig| jn endgxlqnc| rnz`nlqnh j| prn`lgc

lexnznpxp# clnp gx xfn zoox oa xfn qlgjlclx| oa rznqnexlqn òccn`xlqn g`xloe%Po`lgc òehlxloep geh pxz~`x~znp ig| jnòin ag`lclxgxozp oz lefljlxozp oarocl`| lircninexgxloe%

@zlxl`gc gzngp oa òe`nze xfgx ig| leac~ne`n xfn `grg`lx| xolircninex ennhnh ghgrxgjlclx| ingp~znp gzn;

Po`lgc rocgzl{gxloe=

Zgrlh dzotxf oa leaozigc nòeoil` g`xlqlxlnp=

Zngc# alege`lgc geh f~ige enxtozmp clemnh xo lccndgc hz~dxzgaal`mled geh ioen| cg~ehnzled=

Xfn hlaal`~cxlnp lirclnh j| xfn rznqlo~pc| inexloenhrzo`nppnp aoz doqnzege`n=

Hniodzgrfl` `fgednp h~n xo ror~cgxloe hlprcg`ninexp# geh=

Xfn ennh xo rcge aoz le`zngpledc| zlpm| p`negzlop le g zndloexfgx lp jnled tngmnenh j| xfn gjoqn inexloenh oe)doledrzo`nppnp%

8%8% Xfn G`xloe Rcge Hlineploe

Xfn g`xloe rcge hlineploe oa xfn rzokn`x to~ch nqgc~gxn orxloep aoz

ghgrxgxloe le xnzip oa znw~lzninexp geh rocl`| ingp~znp hnpldenh xorzoioxn oz hlpp~ghn g`xlqlxlnp geh rzg`xl`np xfgx nefge`n q~cenzgjlclx|%

Pxzgxndlnp aoz rzoqlhled ghnw~gxn tgxnz znpo~z`np ig| le`c~hnlirzoqnh zgleagcc `gx`finex# lirzoqnh pxozgdn geh hlpxzlj~xloe p|pxnip#hnqncorinex oa ~ehnz)~xlcl{nh# oz gcxnzegxlqn# po~z`np= jnxxnzigegdninex oa p~rrc| geh leazgpxz~`x~zn= le`zngpnh tgxnz òepnzqgxloerzodzgip= òepxz~`xloe oa dzo~ehtgxnz zn`fgzdn jgplp aoz z~eoaa= ioznnaan`xlqn ~pn oa NEPO aozn`gpx leaozigxloe# geh grrcl`gxloe oa entxn`feocod|# p~`f gp hnpgclel{gxloe%

Aoz mn| pn`xozp# tgxnz znpo~z`np pxzgxndlnp ig| le`c~hn nvrcozled

xfn angpljlclx| oa `zor hlqnzplal`gxloe geh xfn ~pn oa hzo~dfx)znplpxgex`zorp# gp tncc gp xfn lexndzgxloe oa `cligxn òeplhnzgxloep lexoòii~elx| rcgeeled geh xo~zlpi hnqncorinex%

Rocl`| orxloep geh ghgrxgxloe pxzgxndlnp zncgxnh xo r~jcl` fngcxfgeh pganx| ig| le`c~hn ~rdzghled geh rzoxn`xloe oa leazgpxz~`x~zn#òirznfneplqn hlpgpxnz igegdninex rzodzgip# òeplhnzgxloe oa cgeh~pn rocl`lnp# geh ghorxloe geh neaoz`ninex oa iozn pxzlednex j~lchled

74


18/25

òhnp% Aoz znh~`led r~jcl` fngcxf zlpm# pxzgxndlnp le`c~hn lirzoqnhfngcxf `gzn leazgpxz~`x~zn# lirzoqnh ninzdne`| rcgep geh r~jclò~xzng`f%

Aoz roxnexlgc acooh òehlxloep# ghgrxgxloe ingp~znp ig| le`c~hn`fgednp le cgeh ~pn rocl`lnp xfgx hlpò~zgdn òepxz~`xloe le acooh rcglep

oz gzngp gx zlpm aoz cgehpclhnp# geh xfgx gccot aoz egx~zgc rgxxnzep oaz~eoaa%

G``~zgxn gppnppinexp oa `~zznex tgxnz j~hdnxp gzn `zlxl`gc aoznaan`xlqn igegdninex oa tgxnz znpo~z`np# nprn`lgcc| oe pigcc# hnepnc|ror~cgxnh lpcgehp tlxf clilxnh pxozgdn `grg`lx| &Cgzpne geh @oe`nr`le#7


19/25

iohnc# hnpldenh xo nqgc~gxn lirg`xp geh rocl`lnp le gexl`lrgxloe gehznproepn xo `cligxn `fgednp% Xfn hlgdzgi gcpo pnzqnp xo npxgjclpf xfnhlaanznex pxgdnp oa hgxg ozdgel{gxloe geh p|pxni j~lchled xo lircninex gcoed)zgedn rcgeeled rzo`npp xo p~rrozx hn`lploep zncgxnh xo r~jcl` rocl`|le cldfx oa `cligxn `fgedn% Xfn hlgdzgi lp znrzoh~`nh le xflp rzoropgcaoz r~zropnp oa lcc~pxzgxled xfopn pxgdnp oec|%

Oe xfn ig`zo cnqnc# nòeoil` g`xlqlxlnp lexnzg`x tlxf xfn po`lgcp~j)p|pxni xfzo~df hniodzgrfl` qgzlgjcnp geh xfn hnigeh aoz cgjoz%Nvxnzegc nòeoil` zncgxloep gzn leòzrozgxnh gp tncc gp xfn lirg`x oa`cligxn `fgedn oe prn`lal` nòeoil` pn`xozp p~`f gp xo~zlpi gehgdzl`~cx~zn% Xfn ~cxligxn naan`xp gzn `grx~znh j| `fgednp le roxnexlgc

geh rzojgjcn cgeh ~pn rgxxnzep rzokn`xnh le znproepn xo xfn òircnvlexnzg`xloe gioed gcc qgzlgjcnp%

Hlgdzgi 7

>% Xfn Rzokn`x$p Tozm Rcge

Xfn pòrn oa xfn xoxgc rzokn`x le`c~hnp g cgzdn dnodzgrfl` gzngneòirgppled e~inzo~p ò~exzlnp geh k~zlphl`xloep% Xflp rzoropgc lp

7


20/25

clilxnh xo xfn 7px rfgpn oa g tlhnz naaozx% Gxxnexloe h~zled xflp rfgpnao`~pnp oe R~nzxo Zlò geh xfn zncnqgex enldfjozled lpcgehp%

@fgzx : lcc~pxzgxnp g rznclilegz| xgpm geh xlin p`fnh~cn aoz xfn

rzokn`x%

1% Rzokn`x$p P~rrozx Pxz~`x~znGe lexnzhlp`lrclegz| geh i~cxl)lepxlx~xloegc rzokn`x znw~lznp g

acnvljcn iohnc xo pnzqn gp igegdninex azgintozm%

lcc~pxzgxnp xfn zncgxloepflr neqlploenh aoz xfn rzokn`x gx xflp rolex le xlin%

Ao~ehgxloep geh EDO$p Proepozp

Rzlqgxn Leh~pxz| Proepozp

Rzokn`x

DRP

@ocozgho

@ZRR

@A^RZ

Rzokn`x

Igegdninex

Rzoh~`xp

Hlgdzgi : lp `nexnznh oe xfn *Rzokn`x*% Gcc naaozxp gehòexzlj~xloep# ioenxgz| oz le mleh# to~ch jn ngzigzmnh xo prn`lal`gcc|p~rrozx xfn Rzokn`x% Clenp hnrl`x xfn acot oa a~ehp geh/oz le)mlehznpo~z`np% Xfn òepozxl~i npxgjclpfnh jnxtnne xfn DPR geh xfnêlqnzplx| oa @ocozgho grrngzp gx xfn cnax w~ghzgex% Xfn zldfx)fgehw~ghzgex hnrl`xp g kolex òccgjozgxlqn xngi xo jn aozinh j| xfn znpngz`fgeh rocl`| `nexnzp RRZ@ geh xfn Z~xdnzp êlqnzplx| @nexnz aoz ^zjgeRocl`| Znpngz`f &@^RZ,% Xfn ~rrnz w~ghzgex hnrl`xp p~rrozxledlepxlx~xloep rzoqlhled p~rrozx xfgx nv`c~hnp a~ehled% Xfn MnxxnzledAo~ehgxloe lp le`c~hnh le xflp `gxndoz|% Xfn joxxoi w~ghzgex le`c~hnpxfopn lepxlx~xloep xfgx to~ch p~rrozx xfn rzokn`x tlxf a~ehp% A~ehpò~ch jn rzoqlhnh qlg xfn ~elqnzplx| òepozxl~i oz xfzo~df xfn znpngz`f

:2


21/25

geh rocl`| lepxlx~xnp kolex qnex~zn% Fotnqnz# gcc a~ehp to~ch jnngzigzmnh aoz geh pfgcc jn grrclnh xo xfn Rzokn`x%

Xfn RRZ@ geh xfn DPR gzn òiilxxnh xo rzoqlhn xfn lelxlgc p~rrozxxfgx to~ch rgzxlgcc| alege`n jgpl` kolex tozm xfgx tlcc znp~cx le xfnznw~lznh hnalelxloep oa pòrn# rzokn`x rfgpnp# geh tzlxxne rzoropgcp

ennhnh xo pnnm a~ehled geh p~rrozx% Xfn RRZ@ tlcc rzoqlhn le)mlehznpo~z`np geh naaozxp xo alcc le aoz xfn ennhnh igegdninex rcgxaozi gehòozhlegxn xflp i~cxl)lepxlx~xloegc naaozx%

4% Rgzxl`lrgexp

Xfn aoccotled ozdgel{gxloep gzn p~rrozxnzp geh/oz a~ehp rzoqlhnzp;

Dzgh~gxn P`fooc oa Rcgeeled# êlqnzplx| oa R~nzxo Zlò

@oornzgxlqg hn Pnd~zop Icxlrcnp hn R~nzxo Zlò

@oornzgxlqg hn Pnd~zop hn Qlhg hn R~nzxo Zlò

Xfn Oaal`n oa xfn Lep~zge`n @oiilpploenz oa xfn@oiioetngcxf oa R~nzxo Zlò

Neqlzoeinexgc Rzoxn`xloe Gdne`|

6% Pxzgxndl` Gcclge`np

G znpngz`f rzokn`x oa xflp jznghxf znw~lznp xfn lexndzgxloe oaalege`lgc p~rrozx azoi qgzlo~p po~z`np% Ioznoqnz# lx znw~lznprgzxl`lrgxloe oa e~inzo~p g`xozp le g òozhlegxnh geh òccgjozgxlqnagpfloe% Aoz xflp xo fgrrne# pxzgxndl` gcclge`np gioed pnqnzgclepxlx~xloep geh ozdgel{gxloep fgqn jnne npxgjclpfnh%

Xfn aoccotled lepxlx~xloep fgqn nvrznppnh xfnlz hnplzn xo jnòinrgzxenzp oa xflp òccgjozgxlqn qnex~zn;

Xfn @nexnz aoz ^zjge Rocl`| Znpngz`f&@^RZ, gx Z~xdnzp# XfnPxgxn êlqnzplx| oa Ent Knzpn|# Ent Jz~eptl`m# # E% K%

Xfn Hnrgzxinex oa @lx| geh Zndloegc Rcgeeled# @ozenccêlqnzplx| gx Lxfg`g# E%\% &@ozencc,%

:7


22/25

Znanzne`np @lxnh ozZncnqgex xo xfn Xorl`p Ghhznppnh

G Rgzxlgc Clpx

Gccne R%I% geh Cnppnz I%# 7


23/25

Nedncne D%# Tflxn Z%# ^cknn L% geh Tgzdelnp P%# 7


24/25

Cgzpne# I%@% geh G%K% Xozznp)Pge`fn{ &7


25/25

Pxnghige# H%G% 7

Assessing Risks due to Climate Change

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