Assessing Reliability in the Western Interconnectionwrpinfo.org/media/1290/wecc-assessment-activities_wrp.pdfAssessing Reliability in the Western Interconnection Vijay Satyal and Byron

AssessingReliabilityintheWesternInterconnection

VijaySatyalandByronWoertz,WECC

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

Overview

• Who/WhatisWECC?• CurrentstateoftheInterconnection• Assessingreliability2017– 2034• Stakeholdercollaborationonreliabilityassessments

• Afoundationforreliabilityassessmentdata• Nextsteps

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

NERCRegions3

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

WhoWeAre• WECCisanot-for-profit

organizationthatexiststoassureareliablebulkpowersystemintheWesternInterconnection

• ApprovedbyFERCastheRegionalEntity fortheWesternInterconnection

• NERCdelegatedsomeofitsauthoritytocreate,monitor,andenforcereliabilitystandardstoWECCthroughaDelegationAgreement

• LargestofeightRegionalEntities• BothaRegionandan

Interconnectionmakesitunique—betterperspective

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

WhatWeAreIncorporated: 2002Business: 501(c)(4)not-for-profit

socialwelfareorganizationBoardofDirectors: 10Members,IndependentEmployees: 134Members: 361Offices: SaltLakeCity,UT(HQ)

Vancouver,WA

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

DataasofSeptember19,2017

WhoWeWorkWith

• ProfessionalStaff• Members• Policy/OpinionLeaders

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

WhatWeDo

Mission:Toassurethenear- andlong-termreliabilityoftheBulkElectricSystemintheWesternInterconnection.

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

Vision:ToservethepublicinterestbyassuringtheBulkElectricSystemisreliable;tobestinformtheRegion’sleadersintheirdecisionsregardingcriticalelectricreliabilityissuesfacingtheWesternInterconnection;andtopartnerwithourstakeholderstohelpthemplan,developandoperatetheBulkElectricSysteminaccordancewithindustry-acceptedreliabilitystandards.

Purpose:ToassurethepublicofthereliabilityandsecurityoftheWesternInterconnection’sbulkpowersystem.

HowWeDoItReliabilityPlanningandPerformanceAnalysisPlanningServices: BaseCases,TransmissionStudies,ScenarioPlanningReliabilityAssessments: PowerSupplyAssessment,StateoftheInterconnectionPerformanceAnalysis: EventAnalysis,OperationalPracticesSurveyStandardsDevelopment: RegionalStandards,VariancesandInterpretationsTrainingandEducation: HumanPerformance,SystemOperation

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

Risk-basedComplianceMonitoringandEnforcementEntityRegistrationComplianceRiskAssessments:

InherentRiskAssessmentInternalControlsEvaluation

Monitoring:CriticalInfrastructureProtectionOperationsandPlanning

StandardsViolationEnforcement

SpectrumofReliabilityAnalyses

• VoltageStability• Generation

interconnection/retirementanalysis

• N-1contingencystudies

• ResourceAdequacy• TransmissionCongestion• PathUtilization• FrequencyResponse

• Projectbenefitsandselection

• Costallocation

Utilitylevel(localized)------- Regional------- Interconnection-wide

TimeHorizonsofourWork10

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

ReliabilityAssessmentandPerformanceAnalysis

Past Present FuturePerformance Analysis EventAnalysis ReliabilityPlanning

• Reliabilityvulnerabilityassessments

• ReliabilityPerformanceIndex

• Specialassessments/deepdiveintoemergingissues

• StateoftheInterconnectionreport

• OperationalPracticesassessmentandrelatedmaterials

• CoordinationwithNERCondatamanagement

• Technical Committee supportandfacilitation

• EventAnalysisandlessonslearned

• CausecodingandRootCauseanalysis

• Eventtrending

• Operationalguidelinesandbestpractices

• RACsupportandfacilitation

• AnchorDataSetdevelopment

• Basecasedevelopment• Production costmodel

development• Shortcircuit datacollection

• ProbabilisticResourceadequacyassessments

• NERCandregional reliabilityassessments

• Special reliabilityassessments

• Databasemanagementandmodeldevelopment

• Scenariodevelopment

• BESexceptionprocessing

• ProjectcoordinationandPathRatingprocess

SOTI2017Trends11

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

Coal, 38,174, 14%

Geothermal3,5391%

Hydroelectric,72,044,27%

NaturalGas,104,261,39%

Nuclear7,6793%

Other5,3562%

Solar

14,3576% Wind,

21,663,8%

2016NameplateCapacity(MW)

Coal,209,064,24%

Geothermal17,7442%

Hydroelectric,234,577,

27%

NaturalGas,257,753,29%

Nuclear61,7827%

Other14,0232%

Solar25,4473%

Wind,52,022,6%

2016NetGeneration(GWh)

WesternU.S.RenewableResources12

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

5k

10k

15k

20k

2000 2005 2010 2015

MW

WesternU.S.RenewableCapacity

Biomass Geothermal Solar Wind

ChangingResourceMix:Solar13

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

-2,000

3,000

8,000

13,000

18,000

23,000

2014 2015 2016 2026*

WesternUSNameplateCapacitySolarTrends(MW)*

Utility-Scale Small-Scale Linear(Small-Scale)

EclipseImpactsonSolarEnergyProduction

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

SolarEclipse15

MWTG– OrganizedMarketEfforts16

ReliabilityContext

• Focusquestions:– WhatpotentialreliabilityrisksmighttheWesternInterconnectionfaceinthenext1-20years?

– HowcanWECCbestunderstandthosepotentialrisks?

• Whatis“reliability?”– Theabilitytomeetloadwithavailableresources.

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

ResourceAdequacy

Economics

SystemStability

PolicyandRegulation

WhatIstheCommonCase?

DataSet

2026CommonCase

Loads

Resources

Transmission

Model

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

• ProductionCostModel(PCM)

• SecurityConstrainedEconomicDispatch(SCED)

• Resourcedispatchforeachofthe8,760hoursinthestudyyear

WECC’sviewofthemostlikelycombinationofloads,resourcesandtransmissiontopology10

yearsinthefuture

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1

2

(1) Boardman– Hemingway(B2H)[500kV](2) Delaney– ColoradoRiver(TenWestLink)(3) Delaney– PaloVerde[500kV](4) Delaney– SunValley[500kV](5) EnergyGateway:Wallula– McNary[230kV](6) EnergyGatewaySouth:Aeolus– Mona[500kV](7) EnergyGatewayWest:Bridger– Populus[500kV](8) EnergyGatewayWest:Windstar– JimBridger[230-500kV](9) EnergyGatewayWest:Midpoint– Hemingway[500kV](10) EnergyGatewayWest:Populus– Midpoint[500kV](11) EnergyGatewayWest:Populus– CedarHill– Hemingway[500kV](12) HarryAllen– Eldorado(CentennialII)[500kV](13) I-15CorridorReinforcementProject(CastleRock– Troutdale)(14) Morgan– SunValley[500kV](15) Pawnee– DanielsPark(16) WestofMcNaryReinforcementProjectGroup2(BigEddy– Knight)

4

5

6

7 8

9

2026CommonCaseTransmissionAssumptions(CCTA)ThepurposeoftheCCTAistoprovideabasicsetoffacilitiesthatTEPPCcanuseasastartingpointfortheirownstudies.TheCCTAisalistoffacilitiesthatareexpectedtobein-serviceby2026.

RegionalPlanningCoordinationGroup(RPCG)CAISO– CaliforniaIndependentSystem SIERRA– SierraSubregionalPlanningGroupCTPG– CaliforniaTransmissionPlanningGroupSWAT– SouthwesternAreaTransmissionCG– ColumbiaGrid AESO– AlbertaElectricSystemOperatorCCPG– ColoradoCoordinatedPlanningGroupBCCPG– BCCoordinatedPlanningGroupNTTG– NorthernTierTransmissionGroup

Bluetext– Indicated“UnderConstruction”

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2026CCTransmissionUtilization20

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

P45SDG&E-CFE

P60Inyo-Control

MostHeavilyUtilizedPaths

P52SilverPeak-Control

MostHeavilyUtilizedPaths

U75 U90 U99

P25PacifiCorp/PG&E115kVInterconnection

13.30% 8.94% 6.42%

P45SDG&E-CFE 11.23% 6.79% 4.73%

P52SilverPeak-Control55kV

12.89% 5.08% 0.00%

P83MontanaAlbertaTieLine

10.50% 3.79% 0.09%

P36TOT3 20.99% 3.41% 1.00%

P60Inyo-Control115kVTie

10.82% 1.59% 0.00%

P83MontanaAlbertaTie

P36TOT3

P25PacifiCorp/PG&E

SystemOperatingLimit(SOL)Exceedances(SOTI2017)

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2k

4k

6k

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

bero

fExceeda

nces

SOLExceedancesbyQuarter

NewCommitteeResponsibilities22

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

PlanningCoordinationCommittee

• BaseCasedevelopment• Powerflowcases• Dynamicandstabilitystudycases

• Systemmodelvalidation• Specialassessments• Underfrequency loadshedding• Disturbancevalidation• Applicationsofsynchrophasordata

TransmissionExpansionPlanningPolicyCommittee

• CommonCasedevelopment• Productioncostmodelstudycases

• Capitalexpansionmodelstudycases

• Scenariodevelopment• NERCassessments• Specialassessments• Probabilisticandstochasticassessments

ReliabilityAssessmentCommittee

Recommendation&BenefitsofRAC23

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

Recommendation:CreateaReliabilityAssessmentCommittee(RAC)andconsolidateTEPPC&PCCfunctionsintothisnewcommittee

PotentialBenefits:• Reducedduplicationindatacollection• Accurate,consistentandcompletedatasetforWestern

Interconnectionplanning• Increasedbuy-infromusers• ImprovedcoordinationbetweenWECC’snear- andlong-term

planning• Enhancedverificationofdatasourcesandmodelingassumptions• Morefocusedstakeholderengagementandparticipation• Planningexpertisefocusedwithinasinglecommittee• Improvedefficiencyandcosteffectiveness

RACOrganizationalStructure

ReliabilityAssessmentCommittee

ScenarioDevelopmentSubcommittee

Whatmightbeplausiblefuturesfor

theWesternInterconnection?

StudiesSubcommittee

Whatstudiesshouldweconductto

understandpotentialreliabilityrisks?

ModelingSubcommittee

Whatmodelsshouldweusetoconductdesiredstudies?

DataSubcommittee

Whatdatadoweneedtooperatethe

models?

WhatpotentialfuturereliabilityrisksshouldWECCbethinkingabout?

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

AnchorDataSet(ADS)• PlanningObjectiveforWECC:

– Consistencyin“initialassumptions”aboutthe“statusquo.”– CommonStartingPoint– ConsistentinitialdatafromtheRPGsthathelpsWECC

populatetheirBaseCase(s)forreliability/transmissionplanningstudies– AssistsentitiesandRPGswithFERCOrder1000planningandprojectselection.

• Reflectskeyplanningassumptionsof:– Resourceandtransmissiontopology– RPScompliance– Otherpublicpolicyconsiderations(relatednewproject

investments)

• KeyProducts:2028HSPF;2028ADSPCM,Changefilesandroundtrip-validated1-hourexports.

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

Overallprocess26

RPGs-CompleteRegional

TransmissionPlans

Compile&ReviewInitialADSDataSubmittals

ReviewDraftADS(PFand

PCM)

CompileandPostFinal

ADS

DevelopDataforNextADS

CurrentReliabilityAssessments

BaseCases

PowerFlowModel

8OperatingandScenario

Cases

2Five-YearSeasonalCases

110-YearSeasonalCase

Year10Assessments

ProductionCostModel

2026CommonCase

4LegacyStudies(Storage)

7NewPCMStudyCases

Year20Assessments

CapitalExpansionModel

2034Reference

Case

4Scenario-BasedStudy

Cases

2AdditionalCapEx Study

Cases

OtherAssessments

StochasticAnalysis

(throughJHU)

Gas-ElectricInterfaceStudy

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

ContactInformation

VijaySatyal,[email protected](801)883-6847

ByronWoertz,MBA,[email protected](801)883-6841

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

ExtraSlides

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

OperationalADSWorkflow(1.0)31

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

F

K

InitialADSProcessWorkflowVer1.0–WPR-WECC(05/18/2017)InitialADSProcessWorkflowVer1.0–WPR-WECC(05/18/2017)

DataSu

bmitters

(PC,TP,BA)M

OD-

032

DataSu

bmitters

(PC,TP,BA)M

OD-

032

WPR

WPR

PFDataW

ork

Grou

pPFDataW

ork

Grou

pPC

MData

WorkG

roup

PCMData

WorkG

roup

WEC

CStaff

WEC

CStaff

L&R

L&R

Apr-Jun2018Apr-Jun2018Jul-Dec2016Jul-Dec2016 Jan-Mar2017Jan-Mar2017 Apr-Sep2017Apr-Sep2017 Oct-Dec2017Oct-Dec2017 Jan-Mar2018Jan-Mar2018

G LH

C

E J

D

BA

2028PFPre-Run

Final2028HSPFADS

2028PCMCompilation

Draft2028PCM

Final2028

PCMADS

2028DataRequest

2028HS1BaseCaseCompilation–MOD-032Process(Aug-Dec2017)

ISO2026PF/PCM

CG2026PF/PCM

NTTG2026PF/PCM

WC2026PF/PCM

WPRSMEGroup

compileschangecasesinGridViewformat(andassociated

dynamicsdata)

Latest2026WPRRegionalTPRoundTrip-capableDataset(consolidatedPF&

PCMdata)

Develop2028PCMOtherData(withWPR/DataSubmittersparticipationasappropriate)

LatestRegionalPlanningAssumptionsfor2028ADS(i.e.2026-2028LocalTOincrementalload,resource,transmissioninformation)asdevelopedthroughtheindividual

RegionalPlanningProcesses

IdentifylatestRegionalTP

topologyandPCM-specificdata

changestoWECC2026CCv1.7

Sameasabove

Sameasabove

Sameasabove

WPRDataSubmitter

Coordination

2026WPRPFwithDynamicsOnlytobeusedforthe2028DataRequest

ViaRoundTrip

WPRDataSubmitter

Coordination

WPRDataSubmitterCoordination

CoordinatedReviewofdraft2028ADS–ChangeCasesPCMOther

Data

WPRDataSubmitter

CoordinationWPRStakeholderCoordination

Exported2028PFADS

RACOversight–ADSProcess

Check

1Eachplanningregionmakestheirowndecisionsregardingthescopeofchangestheywishtosubmitforcompilation2WECCneedstwoweekstoconvertthecaseintoPSS/EforsomeDataSubmitters3DisclaimertobeaddedthatthisisaSeedCasetoassistin2028HS1BaseCaseDevelopment,nottobeusedforstudies.4ThisloopisessentialforallTopologyandResourcechangesthatincludesRPSandResourceAdequacy5ThiscasewillbereviewedbytheDataSubmitters,WPRsshouldbeinvolvedthroughtheDataSubmitters.6Nofurtherchangescanbemadetothetransmissiontopology,resources,orRPScompliantPFCase.

2

3RACDa

ta&M

odeling

Subcom

mittees

4

6

7

8

1

Round-Trip

PosttoADSSite

7Dependingonwhat"OtherData"isneeded,thiswilltakemoretime.WECCstaffwilldefinewhichitemswillbedecidedincommitteeandbystaff.8WPRwillcoordinatewithrespectiveBAstoreconcile2017L&Rdataforthe2018submittals.9RoundtripprocessisforvalidatingPFandPCMdatasetconsistency.10RACOversightoftheADSProcessOnly.11ADSSitewillincludepostedversionofthe2028PF,Exported2028PF,2028PCMandChangeFiles.

FOOTNOTES

Validate2027Assumptions(2017data)

True-Upfollowingyear’ssubmission

9

10

2028HSPFCommentPeriod

5

ADSDeliverables

PCM-specificdata

Validateforconsistency

PosttoADSSite

YesNo

Coordinate2027LoadAssumptions(2017L&Rdata)

PosttoADSSite

11

Whatdoestheworkflowmean?• RPGshavethefirsttouchpointwithDataSubmitters.

• RPGswillensuretheseed-dataprovidedtoWECCreflectsRPSconsiderations/mandates.

• WECCwillNOTundertakethenextCCTAeffort(PCM)

• DataSubmitterswillhaveaccesstotheMOD-32HSPFBaseCaseprocessandreviewWPR/IPRinputs.

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