© 2017 General Electric Company - All rights reserved Marco Alverà Snam CEO Fuelling the future with natural gas
© 2017 General Electric Company - All rights reserved
Marco Alverà
Snam CEO
Fuelling the future with natural gas
1. There will be a lot more LNG (+50% 2020 vs 2015)…
2
LNG trade expected to double to cover demand
from Asia and other newly developing countries
LNG liquefaction expected to grow
significantly, especially in Australia and US
… and there could be even more if liquefaction costs are lowered
3
LNG liquefaction costs – 1000% cost inflation
Year
$/t
pa
• Build in lower cost areas and then
assemble
• Floating concepts to reduce
onshore building costs
• Standardise design
• Competition between
manufacturers
• Share facilities for LNG plants in the
same area
Lowering costs
Sources: Oxford School for Energy Studies, LNG Plant Cost Inflation,
research paper Feb2014
2. FSRUs will allow new countries to start benefiting from gas
4
Proposed regasification terminals by country
Source: IHS – Regasification database as of Aug. 23, 2016
40
14
6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1
7
3
2
1 2 2
1 1 2
5
1
12
8%
5%
10%
37%
-1%
24%
7%
0%
8%7%5%
14%10%
21%
-11%
2%1%
7%
3%
12%
1%
12%
6%9%
11%13%
12%
57%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 Onshore FSRU LNG CAGR 2016-2030**
LNG Onshore SRU LNG CAGR Bangladesh
Colombia
Philippines
Ghana
S. Africa
Bahrain
Cote D’Ivoire
Panama
Uruguay
Jamaica
El Salvador
Senegal
….
Source: OECD/IEA, “World Energy Outlook 2016”; EU Reference Scenario 2016
* Implementation of the only 20-20-20 energy package with the achievement of the targets ** New Policies Scenario hypothesizes the full implementation of the Energy Policies set out at EU level
*** IHS Rivalry assumes EU on track to reach its 2020 targets. 2030 targets at EU level not reached but different trends among Countries (priority is given to national policies)
Natural gas long-term demand & production (Bcm)
450 Scenario
New Policies EU Ref. Scen. 2016 IHS Rivalry
Current Policies
De
man
d
Pro
du
cti
on
Eurogas 2016
Forecast
Data for EU28 587
484
452
327
465
420
480
546 542
457
422
440
474
565 542
508
375
210 190
163 145
125 112 102 96 90 84
• Gas demand long term forecasts
point on substantial stability in
2015-2025 timeframe
• Internal production decline
• Import requirements set to rise
• Wider gas demand volatility
after 2025 due to different energy
scenarios with potential fall to
~330 BCM in most extreme
scenarios
3. Europe: import requirements set to rise…
5
… with new infrastructure and interconnections providing gas to gas competition
Present flows
Debottlenecking of national interconnections and new supply sources fosters
market integration, greater liquidity and security of supply
RUSSIA
NORTH
SEA
NORTH
AFRICA
LNG RUSSIA
NORTH
SEA
NORTH
AFRICA
LNG
CASPIAN SEA &
MIDDLE EAST &
EAST MED
Expected flows
European
priority
projects for
market
integration
Single market opportunity:
• Greater Interconnections
• Higher Flexibility
• Security of supply
• Lower prices
=
=
6
• Reduces emissions in the automotive
sector with low unitary transport cost
• About 900k CNG cars and 1,000 filling
stations in Italy
• Could grow to 2.5m vehicles and 1800
filling stations by 2025
• Renewable source, already well
developed in some European
countries (e.g. Netherlands,
Sweden,…)
• Strong increase in Italian biogas
production facilities (already >1,500)
which could be upgraded to
biomethane
• Could be injected in the network
using current gas infrastructure
• High potential – 10/15% of Italian
demand (~7-8 bcm)
Biomethane CNG
• Development of Small Scale LNG for
transport is a legal requirement (esp.
for Marine transport)
• Requires mini-LNG terminals or
coastal deposits
• Investments in the sector have already
started also thanks to EU support (i.e.
TEN-T subsidies) initially focused
mostly on Northern EU infrastructure
• Depending on the level of development
of the infrastructure (and new
ships/vehicles penetration) could add
up to 30 bcm of demand by 2025 at
EU level (~7% of 2016 EU demand)
SS- LNG for
transport
4. Technology: new sources and uses of gas
CNG vs. Diesel
–CO2: -30%
–NOx: -80%
–SO2: -100%
–PM10: -90%