ASRR Conference: Engineered Resilient Systems Panel Ensuring Engineered Resilient Total-Ship Systems: Using More Physics-Based Design Tools in Early Concept Design Bob Keane, Ship Design USA, Inc. 5 October 2011
Dec 26, 2015
ASRR Conference: Engineered Resilient Systems Panel
Ensuring Engineered Resilient
Total-Ship Systems:
Using More Physics-Based
Design Tools in Early Concept DesignBob Keane, Ship Design USA, Inc.
5 October 2011
Opinions are those of the author and not those of any Government agency or program.
Inseparable Resilience IssuesDr. Robert Neches, OASD(R&E), 31 March 2011
Rapidly Adapting to User Needs– Warfighter / Engineer Information Exchange
Accelerated Needs Exploration: Conceptual Design– Co-Evolution of ConOps & Systems for Multiple
Alternative Futures
Accelerated Design-to-Build: Capability Engineering
Advances must be embedded in tools and environments accessible to Government and industry – Systems 2020 2
5/3-6/05 Summer Naval Surface Ship Design Program 3
• A “system of systems”: Operate in battle force with older and newer ships
• Very low quantities, high unit cost, long lives• Extremely complex product: millions of piece parts• No prototypes, first ship(s) must be fully operational• Government develops combat/weapons/communications
systems• Government ultimately assumes responsibility for meeting
requirements• Lack of commercial shipbuilding industrial base to build upon• Intense Congressional oversight
Nature of the Product-A Warship
5/3-6/05 Summer Naval Surface Ship Design Program 4
USS MIDWAY 50-Year Global Crisis Response
ItalyElections
1947
Lebanon1950
Earnest Will1987–1988
Desert Shield /Desert Storm
1990–91
IranianHostage
Crisis1979
AfghanistanInvasion 1979
Laos1961
Vietnam1965–1975
PhilippineCoup1989
Quemoy-Matsu1958
Korean TreeIncident
1976
Fiery Vigil1991
The General
Board
Naval War
CollegeOpNav
The Bureaus
The General Board
Naval War
CollegeOpNav
The Bureaus
The Fleet
Collaborative Innovation in Fleet Design,1922-1941
Agents of Innovation: The General Board and the Design of the Fleet That Defeated the Japanese Navy, John T. Kuehn, Naval Institute Press, 2008
MIT'S VON HIPPEL: INNOVATION, LEAD USER ANALYSIS, CUTTING CONCEPT TIME & COST
“…sometimes it's a waste of time and resources to try to understand customer needs…
sometimes it's less expensive and more efficient to
– let your customers define the needs,
– limit yourself to offering solutions, and
– let the customers design based on that.”
6
Experience and the Right Tools Make A BIG Difference
1980s Reagan Buildup: Average Cost Growth for Average Cost Growth for Lead Ship was 10%**Lead Ship was 10%**– NAVSEA Highly
Experienced Ship Design Workforce
– User-Driven Design 1990/2000s Acquisition
Reform: Average Cost Average Cost Growth for Lead Ship was Growth for Lead Ship was 50%**50%**– Inexperienced Industry
Design Teams– Mfr.-Driven Design
Lack of Experience
Smart, Physics-Based Tools
ToolsTools
Highly Experienced
Smart, Physics-Based Tools
Rule-Based Tools
Lack of Experience
Rule-Based Tools
Highly Experienced
ExperienceExperience
** SEA 05C, June 2008
8
Seaway Loads for Design of Surface Combatants: Rule-Based Design
Structural Design of FFG 7, CG 47, DDG 51 Classes
– Interested more in extreme loading conditions than actual loads which contribute to fatigue
– Worked with simplified loading envelopes
– Deterministic analysis resulted in scantlings for maximum load expected
– Highly random wave-induced loads were set of simplified hydrostatic loads under extreme seas
No Physics-Based Computations nor Seakeeping Model Tests to Determine Actual Seaway Loads
9
Lack of Physics-Based Design Tools: Increased Ownership Costs
FFG 7 Class
– Hull girder doubler plates & ballast added
– Extensive deckhouse fatigue cracking
CG 52 Class (with VLS)
– Serious hull cracking and buckling problem
– Extensive superstructure fatigue cracking
DDG 51 Class
– Bow structure buckling and cracking issue
Operational loads exceeded rule-based design loads
$100M’s in repairs for sustaining service-lives
10
““Outside-In DesignOutside-In Design”” – Start with Hull Form, Then Cram Everything into Hull
Hull is sized and shaped in early design based on:
– unreliable weight and area/volume estimates
– invalid assumption volume is “arrangeable”
– fallacy that limiting hull size limits ship costs
Need architectural tools to optimize arrangements
11
Ships Possessing Greater Density Increase Production Cost
Ship Production hours increase with density and fall into predictable groupings.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Combatant Designs
Hybrid Designs
Commercial Designs
Legacy Hulls (Return Data) MPF(F) Notional Designs (Estimated Data)
Future L-Ship
LHD
LSD
LPD
LMSR FLO/FLO 3
FLO/FLO 2FLO/FLO 1
DISTRIBUTED
AVIATIONLOG-RO/RO
RO/RO
LHA
AOE
Auxiliary / Amphibs Designs
Future DDG
CG
DDG
FFG
No
rmal
ized
Fir
st S
hip
Pro
du
ctio
n (
Ho
urs
/ L
T)
Outfit Density (lbs / cu ft)
12
WHERE WE NEED TO GO
According to an old proverb, if we do not change our direction, we might end up where we are headed.
13
Systems Engineering – Ensure “Elegant” Designs*
Effective – it does what it is supposed to do
Efficient – to produce, operate, maintain
Robust - insensitive to variations in operations
Minimal Unintended Consequences – few band aids required to fix it in-service
*M. Griffin, Former NASA Director, Dean’s Seminar, SIT, “How do we fix System Engineering?”, 13 Dec 2010
14
Toward Robust Systems Engineering: CREATE-SHIPS Project
Computational Research & Engineering for Acquisition Tools & Environments (CREATE):
– Replace empirical design with validated physics-based computational design
– Detect and fix design flaws early in design process
– Develop optimized designs for new concepts
– Begin system integration earlier in acquisition process
– Increase acquisition program flexibility and agility to respond to rapidly changing requirements
DoD High Performance Computing Modernization Program
15
Integrated Hydrodynamics Design Environment - IHDE
ASSET/LEAPS
GeometryProblemSet Up
ConditionsAutomatedGridding
SSFTSD
SMPVERES
AEGIRDAS BOOT
FREDYNTEMPEST
NavyFOAM LAMP
LOADSPOWERINGRESISTANCE MANEUVERING SEAKEEPING
AUTOMATED VALIDATION CASES
DESIGN STUDIES
SHAPE OPTIMIZATION
HPCMP
DRIVER/GUI
LOCALHPC
Rapid Ship Design Environment (RSDE) Architecture
04/19/23 16
LEAPS Database
Rapid Ship Design EnvironmentGUI
ASSETSynthesis
Hullform Gen/Trans
IHDEHydro
ISAArrangement
SHCP-L Stability
Behavior ObjectZ
FloodingBehaviors
StructuresBehaviors
SeakeepingBehaviors
StabilityBehaviors
GEML KernelNURBSMath
Radial BasisMath
KrigingMath
Neural NetMath
Execution EngineMulti-Discipline Optimization Design Space Exploration
ResistanceBehaviors
Hullform Geometry
Arrangement Geometry
LEAPS API and Toolkits
Design Data Sets
BehaviorMan TktHulltran Tkt Hullgen TktSHCP-L Tkt
Structure Geometry
SubdivisionGeometry
04/19/23 16
17
Modeling Warships in the Ocean Battle Space: Way Ahead Need to start co-evolution of ConOps & systems for
multiple alternative futures long before Milestone A
– Continuing process not tied to specific acquisitions
Need engineers to have unfettered access to warfighters
– Accelerated exploration during concept formulation
– Collaborative process exploring new/radical innovations
Need more physics-based tools for concept design with
– Timely pre-processing of system geometry
– Timely post-processing of results into decision aids
Need to reconstitute DoD S&T infrastructure
– DoD Labs resume their advanced development role
CISD Overview - March 2010 18
Center of Innovation in Ship Design is:Center of Innovation in Ship Design is:The hub of a national collaborative enterprise combining the best ideas and experience of government, industry, and academia in ship design
CISD CISD MissionMission: : Ensure the Future Capability (People, Tools and Knowledge) of the Nation to Develop Innovative Ship Designs to Effectively Meet Defense Needs
Focus Areas: Navy of the Future• Develop Future Ship Designers• Knowledge Base / Design Tools & Processes• Future Ship & Ship Design Technology Needs• Develop Innovative Ship Design Concepts
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