ASOK 3

KAUAÌ COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kauaì

The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

A SYNOPS IS OFA SYNOPS IS OF SUSTA INAB IL I TY RESEARCHSUSTA INAB IL I TY RESEARCH

IN HAWAI ` IIN HAWAI ` I AND ONAND ON KAUA` IKAUA` I

•• GLOBAL WARMINGGLOBAL WARMING •• RESOURCE L IM I TSRESOURCE L IM I TS • SOC IAL INEQUITYSOC IAL INEQUITY



Measu r i ng G loba l CO2 F rom Hawa i ` iMeasu r i ng G loba l CO2 F rom Hawa i ` i

INCREASING

EXPONENTIALLY

Source: Mauna Loa Observatory: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/



CO2 G rowth Ra te sCO2 G rowth Ra te s What Exponentiality Looks Like

Source: Mauna Loa Observatory: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/



HAWAI` I EMISS IONSHAWAI ` I EMISS IONS



EMISS IONS EMISS IONS TT RENDS BY SECTORRENDS BY SECTOR

MMTCO2e



II S LAND EMISS IONSSLAND EMISS IONS

TONS PER CAPITA

Source: HI Climate Change Task Force, Emissions Inventory, 2008

6.0

13.2

16.1

17.8



K IUC K IUC EMISS IONSEMISS IONS TREND TREND



I SLANDISLAND PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE

MEASURESMEASURES



RESOURCE USE PER CAP I TA ON KAUA` IRESOURCE USE PER CAP I TA ON KAUA` I Still going up?

POWERPOWER

WATER

WASTE

Vehicles (per 10 people) Power (kWh per person) Water (Mgd per 100 people) Waste (Klbs per person)

CARS



POPULAT ION FUTURESPOPULAT ION FUTURES



LOOMING DEPENDENCYLOOMING DEPENDENCY



I S LANDER COMPOS I T IONISLANDER COMPOS I T ION



POPULAT ION D ISTR IBUT ION NOWPOPULAT ION D ISTR IBUT ION NOW



POPULAT ION RED ISTR IBUT ION?POPULAT ION RED ISTR IBUT ION?



KK AUA` I ’ S RECENT TRACK RECORDAUA` I ’ S RECENT TRACK RECORD



ECONOMIC OVERSHOOT?ECONOMIC OVERSHOOT?

SPENDING

WAGES



KAUA` I ’ S SUPPLY “CHAIN”KAUA` I ’ S SUPPLY “CHAIN”



EE QUITY IN HOUS ING?QUITY IN HOUS ING?



HOUS ING FOR WHOM?HOUS ING FOR WHOM?



GROWTH FOR WHOM?GROWTH FOR WHOM?



FUTURE ENERGY FUTURE ENERGY SS I TES?I TES?



I S LANDISLAND ECOSYSTEMSECOSYSTEMS

CONDIT IONSCONDIT IONS

& & PROSPECTSPROSPECTS



HOW’S THE WATER?HOW’S THE WATER?



FR I ENDLY TRADEWINDS?FR I ENDLY TRADEWINDS?



Hawa i `Hawa i ` ii I s Downwind O f Amer i c a I s Downwind O f Amer i c a

NORTH PACIFIC CYCLE

Source: NASA JPL, http://www-airs.jpl.nasa.gov/News/Features/Features20060403/



Hawa i `Hawa i ` ii I s I s Al sA l s oo Downwind O f ADownwind O f A s is i aa

DIRECT FROM WEST PACIFIC

Source: NASA JPL, http://www-airs.jpl.nasa.gov/News/Features/Features20060403/



F U T U R E S H O R E L I N E ?F U T U R E S H O R E L I N E ?

Source: TKI mapping, based on Chip Fletcher, http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/sealevel/ChipsTalk.html



HAWAIÌ’S “COLD WALL”; A Hurricane Diverter

Storm Tracks: East & Central Pacific, 1965 - 2006

Stephen Miller on Hawaii’s “Cold Wall” 1:30 – 3:15



KK AUA` I RA INFALLAUA` I RA INFALL by 2100 : by 2100 : 34 – 79% decrease

Elevated

Cloud Base

Reduced Mountain Area Producing Rain



RA INFALLRA INFALL OUTLOOK BY I SLAND OUTLOOK BY I SLAND

Stephen Miller, FWS ecologist at HCA conference ‘07, predicted that a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C would push the cloud base up to about 831 meters (2726’), a 2.3 degree C increase would cause it to rise to 943 meters (3093’), and a 3.7 degree C increase would result in a cloud base at 1,169 meters (3835’).



Kaua i ’ s Mes i c Fo re s t : Then & NowKaua i ’ s Mes i c Fo re s t : Then & Now

THEN

NOWNOW

Source: Hawaii Biodiversity & Mapping Program, http://hbmp.hawaii.edu/projects.htm



Alaka i Na t i ve B i rd Hab i t a t : A l aka i Na t i ve B i rd Hab i t a t : 85% l o s s w i t h 2 °C85% lo s s w i t h 2 °C wa rm ing wa rm ing

Source: Modeling the fate of endemic birds, Benning/LaPointe/Atkinson/Vitousek http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/99/22/14246.pdf

CURRENCURRENTT

FUTUREFUTURE



"Hawaii needs "Hawaii needs wayways to s to transition a wet forest to a transition a wet forest to a

mesic forestmesic forest in a spiral of in a spiral of continually movcontinually moving ing

conservation targets."conservation targets."

Stephen MStephen Milleriller, , EEcologistcologist, , USFWSUSFWS HCA Annual Conference

July 25, 2007, http://kauaian.net/blog/?p=880



THERE’S THERE’S MOREMORE……

Source: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRPotentialUSEffects.html



I M M I N E N T T H R E A T SI M M I N E N T T H R E A T S T O K A U A ` I E C O S Y S T E M ST O K A U A ` I E C O S Y S T E M S

•• HOTTERHOTTER (faster increase mauka(faster increase mauka**)) •• DR I ERDR I ER (more extreme rain events)(more extreme rain events)

•• LOWERLOWER (faster(faster sea level rise) sea level rise)

•• R I SK I ERR I SK I ER (m(more hurricanes)ore hurricanes)

•• S I CKERS I CKER (multiple disease(multiple disease vectors) vectors)

•• D IRT I ERD IRT I ER (more polluted air)(more polluted air)

Tom Giambelluca, Honolulu Advertiser, 25 Mar 08



SYMPTOMsSYMPTOMs of unsustainabilityof unsustainability

•• Emissions growthEmissions growth ((ipcc)ipcc)

•• Ecosystem lossEcosystem loss ((MEA)MEA)

•• InequityInequity ((Hawken, Hawken, blessed unrest)blessed unrest)



CONCLUS IONCONCLUS ION :: Sustainability begets conservation,Sustainability begets conservation,

NotNot the other w the other way arounday around

We cannot “save” habitats withoutWe cannot “save” habitats without saving humanssaving humans

MISS IONMISS ION ::

Plan for kauaÌ adaptation toPlan for kauaÌ adaptation to climate changeclimate change

BBuild uild resilienceresilience as we as we migratemigrate

our towns and ecosystemsour towns and ecosystems mamaukauka

& & trimtrim our footprint our footprint



TOWARDTOWARD

Sustainability thinking:Sustainability thinking:

HawaiìHawaiì cannot cannot REREsolvesolve

any any ONEONE of our of our CHALLENGESCHALLENGES without without REREsolvingsolving

ALLALL of them together of them together

ASOK 3

Education

kauaian institute ken

county management training

t ion kaua

emiss ions kaua

i s lander compos

person cars kaua

sector mmtco2e kaua

imeasu r i ng g loba