Top Banner
Asian Property Development 18 June 2007
31

Asian Property Development

Jan 16, 2022

Download

Documents

dariahiddleston
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Asian Property Development

Asian Property Development18 June 2007

Page 2: Asian Property Development

House Registration Numbers

Source: Real Estate Information Center (REIC), Government Housing Bank

Jan - Dec 2005 Jan - Dec 2006 Growth (% )Total 72,072 78,096 8.4%Owner-Built 25,244 28,949 14.7%Developer-built 46,828 49,147 5.0%

1 2 9 ,6 8 8

1 0 8 ,0 0 1

1 7 1 ,2 5 41 7 6 ,6 1 6

2 9 ,0 2 9 3 3 ,0 7 4 3 3 ,9 8 0 3 7 ,1 8 2

5 6 ,0 8 5

6 9 ,0 5 0 7 2 ,0 7 27 8 ,0 9 6

1 4 8 ,6 3 1

1 3 4 ,0 8 6

1 7 2 ,4 1 9

6 7 ,0 5 4

1 0 ,0 0 02 0 ,0 0 03 0 ,0 0 04 0 ,0 0 05 0 ,0 0 06 0 ,0 0 07 0 ,0 0 08 0 ,0 0 09 0 ,0 0 0

1 0 0 ,0 0 01 1 0 ,0 0 01 2 0 ,0 0 01 3 0 ,0 0 01 4 0 ,0 0 01 5 0 ,0 0 01 6 0 ,0 0 01 7 0 ,0 0 01 8 0 ,0 0 0

1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6

N e w r e g is te r e d r e s id e n t ia l u n it s O w n e r b u ilt D e v e lo p e r b u ilt

1

Page 3: Asian Property Development

New Registered Residential Units during Jan – Dec 2006

Source: Real Estate Information Center

Jan - Dec 2005 Jan - Dec 2006 Growth (%)

Single Detached Houses 46,643 42,744 -8.4%

Owner-Built 22,754 26,064 14.5%Developer-built 23,889 16,680 -30.2%

Jan - Dec 2005 Jan - Dec 2006 Growth (%)

Townhouses & Shophouses 14,536 18,386 26.5%

Owner-Built 2,490 2,885 15.9%Developer-built 12,046 15,501 28.7%

Jan - Dec 2005 Jan - Dec 2006 Growth (%)

Condominiums 10,893 16,966 55.8%

Owner-BuiltDeveloper-built 10,893 16,966 55.8%

2

Page 4: Asian Property Development

Catalyst for Urbanization (1)

Source: Energy Policy&Planning Office, Kasikorn Research, AP

Y e a r O i l p r ic e T ra n sp o rta tio n c o st (B a h t/ l i tre ) a s % o f in c o m e

2 0 0 2 1 3 .3 9 -1 6 .4 9 1 3 %

2 0 0 4 1 6 .9 9 -2 2 .3 9 1 7 %

2 0 0 5 1 9 .6 9 -2 7 .7 4 > 2 0 %

2 0 0 6 2 5 .5 9 -3 0 .1 9 ?

3

Page 5: Asian Property Development

Catalyst for Urbanization (2)Thailand’s Demographics

Source: National Statistics Office, Department of Provincial Administration

0-2443%

25-4433%

60+9%

45-5915%

Age Band

Potential home

buyers

Current target group

4

Page 6: Asian Property Development

Market Situation Relies on Economy

Source: BOT, Real Estate Information Center, Asian Property Development

Correlation: -0.588

24.15%

9.42%

50.84%

23.12%

4.38%8.36%

27.72%

2.74%

13.93%

-56.71%

-54.89%

0.68%26.42%

27.85%

18.65%26.75%

-16.72%

2.43%-15.85%

5.0%6.1%

4.5%

6.3%5.3%

1.9%4.6%4.4%

-10.5%

-1.4%

5.9%

9.2%9.0%8.3%8.1%

8.6%

9.5%

13.3%11.2%12.3%

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Housing Registration (Growth) GDP

5

Page 7: Asian Property Development

Unemployment Rate vs House Registration

Source: BOT, GHB, Asian Property Development

Correlation: -0.588

134,086

37,182

72,07278,096

56,085

171,254

69,050

33,980

53,353

33,07429,029

67,054

172,419

67,451

102,320

80,031

129,688

108,001

176,616

148,631

1.7%1.4%

2.2%2.0%

2.0%

3.2%3.6%

4.2%4.4%

1.5%1.5%1.7%

2.6%

2.6%

2.8%3.1%

5.9%

4.3%

2.2%

3.6%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Housing Registration (Unit) Unemployment Rate

6

Page 8: Asian Property Development

Short term Indicator – Oil Price (1)

Source: UTCC, Energy Policy&Planning Office, Asian Property Development

Consumer confidence vs. Oil price in 2005

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-0510

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Consumer Confidence Oil Price (RHS)

Consumer confidence vs.Oil price in 2006

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-0615

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

Consumer Confidence Oil Price(Baht/litre) (RHS)

7

Page 9: Asian Property Development

Short term Indicator – Oil Price (2)

Source: UTCC, Energy Policy&Planning Office, Asian Property Development 8

Consumer confidence vs.Oil price in Jan-Apr 07

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-0715

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

Consumer Confidence Oil Price(Baht/litre) (RHS)

Page 10: Asian Property Development

Less Impact by Interest Rate

Source: BOT, Real Estate Information Center, Asian Property Development

Correlation: -0.588

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Housing Registration (Growth) Interest Rate (% change)

9

Page 11: Asian Property Development

No Impact on Consumer Confidence (1)

Source: UTCC, BOT, Asian Property Development

Consumer confidence vs. Interest rate in 2005

70

80

90

100

Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-054.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Condumer confidence Interest Rate

Consumer confidence vs. Interest rate in 2006

75

7677

78

79

80

81

82

8384

85

86

87

88

Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-065.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

Condumer confidence Interest Rate (MLR)

10

Page 12: Asian Property Development

No Impact on Consumer Confidence (2)

Source: UTCC, BOT, Asian Property Development 11

Consumer confidence vs. Interest rate in Jan-Apr 07

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-076.00%

6.50%

7.00%

7.50%

8.00%

8.50%

Condumer confidence Interest Rate (MLR)

Page 13: Asian Property Development

Current Market Situation

• HIGHLY DYNAMIC MARKET• MARKET FOCUS BY LEADING DEVELOPERS – SEGMENT

SPECIALIST• NO SIGN OF INDUSTRY COLLAPSE – LOW GEARING• FINANCIAL ADVANTAGES (Pre & Post Financing) TO BIG

COMPANIES – NEGATIVE GROWTH ON NEW DEVELOPER LOANS / DIRECTOR LOAN

• BIG COMPANIES GAIN MORE MARKET SHARE• INTENSE COMPETITION MAINLY FROM LARGE COMPANIES – AIM

TO BE NO.1 / HIGH ANNUAL GROWTH TARGET• NO NICHE MARKET SEGMENT• “SHOPPING MALL” MARKETING STRATEGIES• LOWER GROSS MARGIN AND HIGH SG&A (INDUSTRY)• SUPPLY HANDOVER AND ALARMING IN SOME MARKET

SEGMENTS

12

Page 14: Asian Property Development

Source: Bank of Thailand, Real Estate Information Center, AP

INVENTORY HANGOVER IN HIGH-END SDH

2003 2004 2005 1H06 9M06 2006

Financing :

Capital increase MB 11,508 6,699 3,806 730 809 1,897

New property development credit MB N/A 46,146 28,587 16,081 22,440 29,404

Outstanding property development credit MB 150,579 193,839 194,528 195,166 198,558 183,864

Supply Outlook :

Inventory growth % 24.9% 34.7% 7.7% 2.3% 3.8% 2.5%

Land subdivision permit (Bangkok and Greater Bangkok) % 108.9% -14.7% 12.5% -6.0% 8.2% 9.8%

Construction permit (Growth) %

Low rise 48.2% 30.9% -24.6% 13.5% n/a n/a

High rise 72.4% 140.1% -50.9% 87.2% n/a n/a

Dominant Players :Market share of listed company % 52% 43% 48% 48% 41% 45%

13

Page 15: Asian Property Development

AP’s Definition of Condo

1. SUPER HIGH END – LARGE SIZE / CBD / MASS TRANSIT / >B 10 MM

2. HIGH END – SMALLER SIZE / CBD / MASS TRANSIT

3. MID END – SMALLER SIZE / GOOD LOCATION / MASS TRANSIT

4. MID-TO-LOW END – SMALLER SIZE / GOOD LOCATION / NO MASS TRANSIT

5. LOWEST END – SMALLEST SIZE / FAIR TO POOR LOCATION / NO MASS TRANSIT / THOUSAND NUMBER OF UNIT PER PROJECT

14

Page 16: Asian Property Development

POTENTIAL OVER SUPPLY IN LOW-END CONDO(MARKET SITUATION - 1st QUARTER)

UNIT PORTION GROWTH(%) (%)

SDH 1,379 8.4 (62.1)TH 2,724 16.6 (19.4)CONDO 11,183 68.1 103.5OTHER 1,133 6.9 37.2

TOTAL 16,419 100.0 23.1

15

Page 17: Asian Property Development

MAJOR SEGMENTS OF LAUNCHED CONDO ARE LOW-END

UNIT PORTION GROWTH

< 1 MM 3,206 28.67 84.5

1-2 MM 4,989 44.61 107.0

TOTAL 8,195 73.28 97.6

TOTAL CONDO 11,183 100.00 103.5

16

Page 18: Asian Property Development

Housing Demand per Year

Source: Asian Property Development

• National Economic and Social Development (Government, issued 2002) 123,075 units/year- Low income 64,985 units- Medium to High income 58,090 units

• Kasikorn Research Center (Kasikorn Bank, issued 2004) 92,700 units/year- Low income 40,000 units- Medium to High income 52,700 units

• Fiscal Policy Research Institute Foundation(Government Agency, issued 2004)- Total Demand 113,000 – 120,000 units/year- Development Built 71,000 – 81,000 units

17

Page 19: Asian Property Development

Company Overview

Page 20: Asian Property Development

Shareholding Structure

• Management 36%Khun Anuphong Assavabhokin 24%Khun Pichet Vipavasuphakorn 12%

• Others (free float) 64%

18

Page 21: Asian Property Development

Board of Directors

• Management 3 directorsKhun Anuphong AssavabhokinKhun Pichet VipavasuphakornKhun Jaroonsak Buntoonginda

• Related companies 3 directorsKhun Chaiyarat Thampeera - Pre-BuiltKhun Vilas Pilakasiri - Pre-BuiltKhun Payont Sakdejyont - Q-CON

• Independent directors 7 directorsKhun Pong SarasinKhun Chatchaval BhanalaphDr. Naris ChaiyasootKhun Siripong SombutsiriKhun Shaw SinhaseniKhun Kosol SuriyapornKhun Nontachit Tulayanonda

19

Page 22: Asian Property Development

AP’s Business Structure

AP Group

Asian Property Development and subsidiaries

(Property Development)

Citismart Service Co., Ltd,.(Customer Service andProperty Management)

Bangkok CitiSmart Co., Ltd.(Property Broker)

20

Page 23: Asian Property Development

AP Projects Update

Page 24: Asian Property Development

Product Strategy

Source: Asian Property Development Plc.

Old

CONDO15%

SDH25%

TH60%

New

SDH5-10%

TH50-55%

CONDO40-50%

21

Page 25: Asian Property Development

Sales & Backlog

Source: Asian Property Development Plc. 22

Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 1 Apr-31 May2007

Beginning backlog 4,940 5,087 4,954 6,084 6,781 8,908

Booking 1,693 1,490 2,142 2,747 3,541 4,730

Income recognition (1,546) (1,623) (1,012) (2,050) (1,415) 0

Ending backlog 5,087 4,954 6,084 6,781 8,908 13,638

- from townhouses and single detached houses 2,255 1,403 1,749 1,377 1,444 2,345

- from condominium 2,832 3,551 4,335 5,405 7,463 11,293

Page 26: Asian Property Development

Ongoing Projects (as of May 31, 2007)

Source: Asian Property Development Plc.

Type RaiNo of units

Project value (Btm) Launch year

Completion (last unit

transferred)

% sold (in unit) (as of 31 May

07)

Available for sales

(Btm)Place & Park SDH 91.6 275 800 N/AThe City (Rama 5 - Pinklao) SDH 90.0 283 1,700 Q3 2004 Q4 2008 73% 463The City (Pinklao) SDH 38.0 88 700 Q3 2004 Q4 2007 84% 111The City (Pinklao) Phase II SDH 115.7 288 1,600 Q2 2007 Q4 2010 16% 1,339Baan Klang Muang (British Town Srinakarin) TH 43.5 413 1,630 Q1 2005 Q4 2008 80% 332Baan Klang Krung (Siam - Patumwan) Condo 4.7 580 2,900 Q1 2005 Q2 2008 100% 0Baan Klang Muang (The Paris Ratchavibha) TH 17.0 137 737 Q2 2005 Q4 2007 99% 5Sydney Office Park (Ladprao 71) TH 11.5 76 669 Q4 2005 Q4 2007 100% 0Baan Klang Muang (Grand De Paris Ratchada) TH 18.0 209 870 Q4 2005 Q4 2008 100% 4Baan Klang Krung (Grande Vienna Rama III) TH 18.2 205 1,420 Q4 2005 Q4 2007 99% 14Baan Klang Krung (Grande Vienna Rama III) SDH 13.1 24 500 Q4 2005 Q4 2008 50% 250Baan Klang Muang (Luzern On-nut 46) TH 26.1 299 880 Q4 2005 Q4 2008 52% 424Baan Klang Muang (Monte-carlo Ratchavibha) TH 26.9 261 1,273 Q1 2006 Q4 2008 61% 502Klang Krung Office Park (San Francisco Bangna) TH 19.0 110 1,100 Q1 2006 Q4 2007 98% 20The Address @ Siam Condo 1.6 224 1,100 Q2 2006 Q4 2008 85% 167Baan Klang Krung (The Nice Ratchavibha) SDH 18.2 50 670 Q2 2006 Q4 2008 32% 456Life @ BTS Tapra Condo 4.1 672 1,100 Q3 2006 Q2 2009 72% 303Baan Klang Krung (The Royal Vienna Ratchavibha) TH 35.6 330 1,400 Q4 2006 Q4 2009 15% 1,192Baan Klang Muang (The Royal Monaco Srinakarin-Pattanakarn) TH 24.7 309 900 Q4 2006 Q4 2008 48% 469Baan Klang Muang (Swiss Town Kaset Navamin) TH 31.2 320 990 Q4 2006 Q4 2008 49% 504Baan Klang Muang (The Paris Rama 9-Ramkhamhaeng) TH 19.1 297 740 Q4 2006 Q4 2008 47% 394The Address @ Sukhumvit 42 Condo 2.7 214 700 Q4 2006 Q4 2008 70% 213Life @ Ratchada Condo 4.1 474 950 Q4 2006 Q3 2009 99% 8The Address @ Chidlom Condo 4.5 597 3,000 Q1 2007 Q2 2010 56% 1,322Life @ Sathorn 10 Condo 1.4 286 900 Q2 2007 Q2 2011 93% 66Life @ Paholyothin-Aree Condo 2.0 357 1,000 Q2 2007 Q4 2010 98% 17Life @ Ratchada-Suthisan Condo 2.9 520 1,100 Q2 2007 Q4 2010 97% 34

8,607

23

Page 27: Asian Property Development

Future Projects to be launched in 2007

Source: Asian Property Development Plc.

Note: 1 rai = 0.4 acre = 0.16 hectare = 400 sq.w. = 1,600 sq.m., 1 sq.feet = 0.09 sq.m. , 1 sq.m. = 10.76 sq. feet

SDH = Single Detached Houses, TH = Townhouses

Type RaiNo of units

Project value (Btm)

Land acquisition Launch year

Completion (last unit

transferred)Klang Krung Office Park (Chokchai 4 - Sena) TH 10.0 79 500 Q2 2006 Q3 2007 Q4 2009Baan Klang Muang (Krungthep Kreeta) TH 10.9 113 310 Q1 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2009Baan Klang Muang (Latpraklao) TH 24.7 350 900 Q1 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2010Life@Paholyothin 18 Condo 1.9 183 340 Q2 2006 Q4 2007 Q2 2009

Total planned-to-be-launched projects 47.5 2,050.0

24

Page 28: Asian Property Development

% Estimated Transferred Condo

Source: Asian Property Development Plc.

How do we manage any potential risk for condo projects?

• Reducing the financial risk, we finance each new condo project by cash inflow from prior condo projects.

• Reducing the operational risk, we monitor the number of unit sold reaching the confident level before acquiring new plots of land for new condo development.

(million Baht)

Existing Condo of APProject

valueTotal units

% unit sold * 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F

Estimated last unit

transferredBaan Klang Krung (Siam - Patumwan) 2,900 580 100% 80% 10% Q2 2008The Address @ Siam 1,100 224 83% 100% Q4 2008Life @ BTS Tapra 1,100 672 71% 60% 40% Q2 2009The Address (Sukhumvit 42) 700 214 65% 100% Q4 2008Life @ Ratchada - Ladprao 36 950 474 100% 100% Q3 2009The Address (Chidlom) 3,000 597 55% 70% 30% Q2 2010Life @ Sathorn Soi 10 900 286 92% 90% 10% Q2 2011Life @ Paholyothin-Aree 1,000 357 84% 60% 40% Q4 2010Life @ Suthisan 1,100 520 100% 60% 40% Q4 2010

12,750 * % sold as of May 20, 2007

% Estimated transferred

25

Page 29: Asian Property Development

Financial Summary

Source: Asian Property Development Plc.

Q1 2007 2006 Q4 2006 Q3 2006 Q2 2006 Q1 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002

Revenues from Property Development (Btm) 1,415 6,344 2,050 1,012 1,736 1,546 4,490 4,793 4,312 2,408 YoY Chg (%) -8.5% 41.3% 36.8% -13.8% 59.0% 113.2% -6.3% 11.2% 79.0% 128.9%

Consolidated Revenues (Btm) 1,415 6,344 2,050 1,012 1,736 1,546 5,258 5,740 4,757 2,701 YoY Chg (%) -8.5% 20.7% 36.8% -25.7% 28.3% 48.3% -8.4% 20.7% 76.1% 110.8%QoQ Chg (%) -31.0% 103% -41.7% 12.3% 3.1%

Gross profit from Property Development (Btm) 456 1,996 647 308 536 505 1,551 1,821 1,674 899 Gross margin from Property (%) 32.2% 31.5% 31.5% 30.5% 30.9% 32.7% 34.5% 38.0% 38.8% 37.3%

Overall Gross profit (Btm) 456 1,996 647 308 536 505 1,683 2,004 1,771 993Gross margin (%) 32.2% 31.5% 31.5% 30.5% 30.9% 32.7% 32.0% 34.9% 37.2% 36.8%

Operating profit (Btm) 232 1,043 315 81 325 324 976 1,369 1,441 745Operating margin (%) 16.4% 16.4% 15.4% 8.0% 18.7% 21.0% 18.6% 23.9% 30.3% 27.6%

Net profit from normal operations (Btm) 158 794 240 86 234 233 645 1,010 1,192 686 YoY Chg (%) -32.2% 23.2% 13.2% -49.9% 40.4% 148.8% -36.2% -15.2% 73.6% 161.9%

Net profit (Btm) 158 1,344 240 636 234 233 765 1,097 1,192 688 YoY Chg (%) -32.2% 75.7% -1.0% 207.5% 40.4% 57.2% -30.3% -7.9% 73.2% 160.0%QoQ Chg (%) -34.1% -62.3% 171.5% 0.4% -3.7%

EPS (Bt) 0.07 0.59 0.10 0.28 0.10 0.10 0.34 0.48 0.53 0.34

Total assets (Btm) 10,465 10,418 10,418 10,851 10,804 10,565 10,291 9,247 6,620 3,586 Equity (Btm) 5,213 5,048 5,048 4,736 4,099 4,213 3,983 4,266 3,325 1,706

Outstanding debt (Btm) 3,902 4,031 4,031 4,785 5,502 5,156 5,303 4,030 2,471 1,464Net debt (Btm) 3,264 3,124 3,124 3,554 4,782 4,593 4,787 3,322 1,507 1,108

Net debt to equity (x) 0.63 0.62 0.62 0.75 1.17 1.09 1.20 0.78 0.45 0.65ROE (%) (average equity) N/A 29.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A 18.5% 28.9% 47.4% 52.2%

26

Page 30: Asian Property Development

Interest rate (MLR)

Source: BOT, Asian Property Development 27

Page 31: Asian Property Development

THANK YOU