Asian Property Development 18 June 2007
Asian Property Development18 June 2007
House Registration Numbers
Source: Real Estate Information Center (REIC), Government Housing Bank
Jan - Dec 2005 Jan - Dec 2006 Growth (% )Total 72,072 78,096 8.4%Owner-Built 25,244 28,949 14.7%Developer-built 46,828 49,147 5.0%
1 2 9 ,6 8 8
1 0 8 ,0 0 1
1 7 1 ,2 5 41 7 6 ,6 1 6
2 9 ,0 2 9 3 3 ,0 7 4 3 3 ,9 8 0 3 7 ,1 8 2
5 6 ,0 8 5
6 9 ,0 5 0 7 2 ,0 7 27 8 ,0 9 6
1 4 8 ,6 3 1
1 3 4 ,0 8 6
1 7 2 ,4 1 9
6 7 ,0 5 4
1 0 ,0 0 02 0 ,0 0 03 0 ,0 0 04 0 ,0 0 05 0 ,0 0 06 0 ,0 0 07 0 ,0 0 08 0 ,0 0 09 0 ,0 0 0
1 0 0 ,0 0 01 1 0 ,0 0 01 2 0 ,0 0 01 3 0 ,0 0 01 4 0 ,0 0 01 5 0 ,0 0 01 6 0 ,0 0 01 7 0 ,0 0 01 8 0 ,0 0 0
1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6
N e w r e g is te r e d r e s id e n t ia l u n it s O w n e r b u ilt D e v e lo p e r b u ilt
1
New Registered Residential Units during Jan – Dec 2006
Source: Real Estate Information Center
Jan - Dec 2005 Jan - Dec 2006 Growth (%)
Single Detached Houses 46,643 42,744 -8.4%
Owner-Built 22,754 26,064 14.5%Developer-built 23,889 16,680 -30.2%
Jan - Dec 2005 Jan - Dec 2006 Growth (%)
Townhouses & Shophouses 14,536 18,386 26.5%
Owner-Built 2,490 2,885 15.9%Developer-built 12,046 15,501 28.7%
Jan - Dec 2005 Jan - Dec 2006 Growth (%)
Condominiums 10,893 16,966 55.8%
Owner-BuiltDeveloper-built 10,893 16,966 55.8%
2
Catalyst for Urbanization (1)
Source: Energy Policy&Planning Office, Kasikorn Research, AP
Y e a r O i l p r ic e T ra n sp o rta tio n c o st (B a h t/ l i tre ) a s % o f in c o m e
2 0 0 2 1 3 .3 9 -1 6 .4 9 1 3 %
2 0 0 4 1 6 .9 9 -2 2 .3 9 1 7 %
2 0 0 5 1 9 .6 9 -2 7 .7 4 > 2 0 %
2 0 0 6 2 5 .5 9 -3 0 .1 9 ?
3
Catalyst for Urbanization (2)Thailand’s Demographics
Source: National Statistics Office, Department of Provincial Administration
0-2443%
25-4433%
60+9%
45-5915%
Age Band
Potential home
buyers
Current target group
4
Market Situation Relies on Economy
Source: BOT, Real Estate Information Center, Asian Property Development
Correlation: -0.588
24.15%
9.42%
50.84%
23.12%
4.38%8.36%
27.72%
2.74%
13.93%
-56.71%
-54.89%
0.68%26.42%
27.85%
18.65%26.75%
-16.72%
2.43%-15.85%
5.0%6.1%
4.5%
6.3%5.3%
1.9%4.6%4.4%
-10.5%
-1.4%
5.9%
9.2%9.0%8.3%8.1%
8.6%
9.5%
13.3%11.2%12.3%
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Housing Registration (Growth) GDP
5
Unemployment Rate vs House Registration
Source: BOT, GHB, Asian Property Development
Correlation: -0.588
134,086
37,182
72,07278,096
56,085
171,254
69,050
33,980
53,353
33,07429,029
67,054
172,419
67,451
102,320
80,031
129,688
108,001
176,616
148,631
1.7%1.4%
2.2%2.0%
2.0%
3.2%3.6%
4.2%4.4%
1.5%1.5%1.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%3.1%
5.9%
4.3%
2.2%
3.6%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Housing Registration (Unit) Unemployment Rate
6
Short term Indicator – Oil Price (1)
Source: UTCC, Energy Policy&Planning Office, Asian Property Development
Consumer confidence vs. Oil price in 2005
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-0510
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Consumer Confidence Oil Price (RHS)
Consumer confidence vs.Oil price in 2006
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-0615
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Consumer Confidence Oil Price(Baht/litre) (RHS)
7
Short term Indicator – Oil Price (2)
Source: UTCC, Energy Policy&Planning Office, Asian Property Development 8
Consumer confidence vs.Oil price in Jan-Apr 07
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-0715
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Consumer Confidence Oil Price(Baht/litre) (RHS)
Less Impact by Interest Rate
Source: BOT, Real Estate Information Center, Asian Property Development
Correlation: -0.588
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Housing Registration (Growth) Interest Rate (% change)
9
No Impact on Consumer Confidence (1)
Source: UTCC, BOT, Asian Property Development
Consumer confidence vs. Interest rate in 2005
70
80
90
100
Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-054.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
Condumer confidence Interest Rate
Consumer confidence vs. Interest rate in 2006
75
7677
78
79
80
81
82
8384
85
86
87
88
Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-065.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
Condumer confidence Interest Rate (MLR)
10
No Impact on Consumer Confidence (2)
Source: UTCC, BOT, Asian Property Development 11
Consumer confidence vs. Interest rate in Jan-Apr 07
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-076.00%
6.50%
7.00%
7.50%
8.00%
8.50%
Condumer confidence Interest Rate (MLR)
Current Market Situation
• HIGHLY DYNAMIC MARKET• MARKET FOCUS BY LEADING DEVELOPERS – SEGMENT
SPECIALIST• NO SIGN OF INDUSTRY COLLAPSE – LOW GEARING• FINANCIAL ADVANTAGES (Pre & Post Financing) TO BIG
COMPANIES – NEGATIVE GROWTH ON NEW DEVELOPER LOANS / DIRECTOR LOAN
• BIG COMPANIES GAIN MORE MARKET SHARE• INTENSE COMPETITION MAINLY FROM LARGE COMPANIES – AIM
TO BE NO.1 / HIGH ANNUAL GROWTH TARGET• NO NICHE MARKET SEGMENT• “SHOPPING MALL” MARKETING STRATEGIES• LOWER GROSS MARGIN AND HIGH SG&A (INDUSTRY)• SUPPLY HANDOVER AND ALARMING IN SOME MARKET
SEGMENTS
12
Source: Bank of Thailand, Real Estate Information Center, AP
INVENTORY HANGOVER IN HIGH-END SDH
2003 2004 2005 1H06 9M06 2006
Financing :
Capital increase MB 11,508 6,699 3,806 730 809 1,897
New property development credit MB N/A 46,146 28,587 16,081 22,440 29,404
Outstanding property development credit MB 150,579 193,839 194,528 195,166 198,558 183,864
Supply Outlook :
Inventory growth % 24.9% 34.7% 7.7% 2.3% 3.8% 2.5%
Land subdivision permit (Bangkok and Greater Bangkok) % 108.9% -14.7% 12.5% -6.0% 8.2% 9.8%
Construction permit (Growth) %
Low rise 48.2% 30.9% -24.6% 13.5% n/a n/a
High rise 72.4% 140.1% -50.9% 87.2% n/a n/a
Dominant Players :Market share of listed company % 52% 43% 48% 48% 41% 45%
13
AP’s Definition of Condo
1. SUPER HIGH END – LARGE SIZE / CBD / MASS TRANSIT / >B 10 MM
2. HIGH END – SMALLER SIZE / CBD / MASS TRANSIT
3. MID END – SMALLER SIZE / GOOD LOCATION / MASS TRANSIT
4. MID-TO-LOW END – SMALLER SIZE / GOOD LOCATION / NO MASS TRANSIT
5. LOWEST END – SMALLEST SIZE / FAIR TO POOR LOCATION / NO MASS TRANSIT / THOUSAND NUMBER OF UNIT PER PROJECT
14
POTENTIAL OVER SUPPLY IN LOW-END CONDO(MARKET SITUATION - 1st QUARTER)
UNIT PORTION GROWTH(%) (%)
SDH 1,379 8.4 (62.1)TH 2,724 16.6 (19.4)CONDO 11,183 68.1 103.5OTHER 1,133 6.9 37.2
TOTAL 16,419 100.0 23.1
15
MAJOR SEGMENTS OF LAUNCHED CONDO ARE LOW-END
UNIT PORTION GROWTH
< 1 MM 3,206 28.67 84.5
1-2 MM 4,989 44.61 107.0
TOTAL 8,195 73.28 97.6
TOTAL CONDO 11,183 100.00 103.5
16
Housing Demand per Year
Source: Asian Property Development
• National Economic and Social Development (Government, issued 2002) 123,075 units/year- Low income 64,985 units- Medium to High income 58,090 units
• Kasikorn Research Center (Kasikorn Bank, issued 2004) 92,700 units/year- Low income 40,000 units- Medium to High income 52,700 units
• Fiscal Policy Research Institute Foundation(Government Agency, issued 2004)- Total Demand 113,000 – 120,000 units/year- Development Built 71,000 – 81,000 units
17
Company Overview
Shareholding Structure
• Management 36%Khun Anuphong Assavabhokin 24%Khun Pichet Vipavasuphakorn 12%
• Others (free float) 64%
18
Board of Directors
• Management 3 directorsKhun Anuphong AssavabhokinKhun Pichet VipavasuphakornKhun Jaroonsak Buntoonginda
• Related companies 3 directorsKhun Chaiyarat Thampeera - Pre-BuiltKhun Vilas Pilakasiri - Pre-BuiltKhun Payont Sakdejyont - Q-CON
• Independent directors 7 directorsKhun Pong SarasinKhun Chatchaval BhanalaphDr. Naris ChaiyasootKhun Siripong SombutsiriKhun Shaw SinhaseniKhun Kosol SuriyapornKhun Nontachit Tulayanonda
19
AP’s Business Structure
AP Group
Asian Property Development and subsidiaries
(Property Development)
Citismart Service Co., Ltd,.(Customer Service andProperty Management)
Bangkok CitiSmart Co., Ltd.(Property Broker)
20
AP Projects Update
Product Strategy
Source: Asian Property Development Plc.
Old
CONDO15%
SDH25%
TH60%
New
SDH5-10%
TH50-55%
CONDO40-50%
21
Sales & Backlog
Source: Asian Property Development Plc. 22
Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 1 Apr-31 May2007
Beginning backlog 4,940 5,087 4,954 6,084 6,781 8,908
Booking 1,693 1,490 2,142 2,747 3,541 4,730
Income recognition (1,546) (1,623) (1,012) (2,050) (1,415) 0
Ending backlog 5,087 4,954 6,084 6,781 8,908 13,638
- from townhouses and single detached houses 2,255 1,403 1,749 1,377 1,444 2,345
- from condominium 2,832 3,551 4,335 5,405 7,463 11,293
Ongoing Projects (as of May 31, 2007)
Source: Asian Property Development Plc.
Type RaiNo of units
Project value (Btm) Launch year
Completion (last unit
transferred)
% sold (in unit) (as of 31 May
07)
Available for sales
(Btm)Place & Park SDH 91.6 275 800 N/AThe City (Rama 5 - Pinklao) SDH 90.0 283 1,700 Q3 2004 Q4 2008 73% 463The City (Pinklao) SDH 38.0 88 700 Q3 2004 Q4 2007 84% 111The City (Pinklao) Phase II SDH 115.7 288 1,600 Q2 2007 Q4 2010 16% 1,339Baan Klang Muang (British Town Srinakarin) TH 43.5 413 1,630 Q1 2005 Q4 2008 80% 332Baan Klang Krung (Siam - Patumwan) Condo 4.7 580 2,900 Q1 2005 Q2 2008 100% 0Baan Klang Muang (The Paris Ratchavibha) TH 17.0 137 737 Q2 2005 Q4 2007 99% 5Sydney Office Park (Ladprao 71) TH 11.5 76 669 Q4 2005 Q4 2007 100% 0Baan Klang Muang (Grand De Paris Ratchada) TH 18.0 209 870 Q4 2005 Q4 2008 100% 4Baan Klang Krung (Grande Vienna Rama III) TH 18.2 205 1,420 Q4 2005 Q4 2007 99% 14Baan Klang Krung (Grande Vienna Rama III) SDH 13.1 24 500 Q4 2005 Q4 2008 50% 250Baan Klang Muang (Luzern On-nut 46) TH 26.1 299 880 Q4 2005 Q4 2008 52% 424Baan Klang Muang (Monte-carlo Ratchavibha) TH 26.9 261 1,273 Q1 2006 Q4 2008 61% 502Klang Krung Office Park (San Francisco Bangna) TH 19.0 110 1,100 Q1 2006 Q4 2007 98% 20The Address @ Siam Condo 1.6 224 1,100 Q2 2006 Q4 2008 85% 167Baan Klang Krung (The Nice Ratchavibha) SDH 18.2 50 670 Q2 2006 Q4 2008 32% 456Life @ BTS Tapra Condo 4.1 672 1,100 Q3 2006 Q2 2009 72% 303Baan Klang Krung (The Royal Vienna Ratchavibha) TH 35.6 330 1,400 Q4 2006 Q4 2009 15% 1,192Baan Klang Muang (The Royal Monaco Srinakarin-Pattanakarn) TH 24.7 309 900 Q4 2006 Q4 2008 48% 469Baan Klang Muang (Swiss Town Kaset Navamin) TH 31.2 320 990 Q4 2006 Q4 2008 49% 504Baan Klang Muang (The Paris Rama 9-Ramkhamhaeng) TH 19.1 297 740 Q4 2006 Q4 2008 47% 394The Address @ Sukhumvit 42 Condo 2.7 214 700 Q4 2006 Q4 2008 70% 213Life @ Ratchada Condo 4.1 474 950 Q4 2006 Q3 2009 99% 8The Address @ Chidlom Condo 4.5 597 3,000 Q1 2007 Q2 2010 56% 1,322Life @ Sathorn 10 Condo 1.4 286 900 Q2 2007 Q2 2011 93% 66Life @ Paholyothin-Aree Condo 2.0 357 1,000 Q2 2007 Q4 2010 98% 17Life @ Ratchada-Suthisan Condo 2.9 520 1,100 Q2 2007 Q4 2010 97% 34
8,607
23
Future Projects to be launched in 2007
Source: Asian Property Development Plc.
Note: 1 rai = 0.4 acre = 0.16 hectare = 400 sq.w. = 1,600 sq.m., 1 sq.feet = 0.09 sq.m. , 1 sq.m. = 10.76 sq. feet
SDH = Single Detached Houses, TH = Townhouses
Type RaiNo of units
Project value (Btm)
Land acquisition Launch year
Completion (last unit
transferred)Klang Krung Office Park (Chokchai 4 - Sena) TH 10.0 79 500 Q2 2006 Q3 2007 Q4 2009Baan Klang Muang (Krungthep Kreeta) TH 10.9 113 310 Q1 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2009Baan Klang Muang (Latpraklao) TH 24.7 350 900 Q1 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2010Life@Paholyothin 18 Condo 1.9 183 340 Q2 2006 Q4 2007 Q2 2009
Total planned-to-be-launched projects 47.5 2,050.0
24
% Estimated Transferred Condo
Source: Asian Property Development Plc.
How do we manage any potential risk for condo projects?
• Reducing the financial risk, we finance each new condo project by cash inflow from prior condo projects.
• Reducing the operational risk, we monitor the number of unit sold reaching the confident level before acquiring new plots of land for new condo development.
(million Baht)
Existing Condo of APProject
valueTotal units
% unit sold * 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F
Estimated last unit
transferredBaan Klang Krung (Siam - Patumwan) 2,900 580 100% 80% 10% Q2 2008The Address @ Siam 1,100 224 83% 100% Q4 2008Life @ BTS Tapra 1,100 672 71% 60% 40% Q2 2009The Address (Sukhumvit 42) 700 214 65% 100% Q4 2008Life @ Ratchada - Ladprao 36 950 474 100% 100% Q3 2009The Address (Chidlom) 3,000 597 55% 70% 30% Q2 2010Life @ Sathorn Soi 10 900 286 92% 90% 10% Q2 2011Life @ Paholyothin-Aree 1,000 357 84% 60% 40% Q4 2010Life @ Suthisan 1,100 520 100% 60% 40% Q4 2010
12,750 * % sold as of May 20, 2007
% Estimated transferred
25
Financial Summary
Source: Asian Property Development Plc.
Q1 2007 2006 Q4 2006 Q3 2006 Q2 2006 Q1 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
Revenues from Property Development (Btm) 1,415 6,344 2,050 1,012 1,736 1,546 4,490 4,793 4,312 2,408 YoY Chg (%) -8.5% 41.3% 36.8% -13.8% 59.0% 113.2% -6.3% 11.2% 79.0% 128.9%
Consolidated Revenues (Btm) 1,415 6,344 2,050 1,012 1,736 1,546 5,258 5,740 4,757 2,701 YoY Chg (%) -8.5% 20.7% 36.8% -25.7% 28.3% 48.3% -8.4% 20.7% 76.1% 110.8%QoQ Chg (%) -31.0% 103% -41.7% 12.3% 3.1%
Gross profit from Property Development (Btm) 456 1,996 647 308 536 505 1,551 1,821 1,674 899 Gross margin from Property (%) 32.2% 31.5% 31.5% 30.5% 30.9% 32.7% 34.5% 38.0% 38.8% 37.3%
Overall Gross profit (Btm) 456 1,996 647 308 536 505 1,683 2,004 1,771 993Gross margin (%) 32.2% 31.5% 31.5% 30.5% 30.9% 32.7% 32.0% 34.9% 37.2% 36.8%
Operating profit (Btm) 232 1,043 315 81 325 324 976 1,369 1,441 745Operating margin (%) 16.4% 16.4% 15.4% 8.0% 18.7% 21.0% 18.6% 23.9% 30.3% 27.6%
Net profit from normal operations (Btm) 158 794 240 86 234 233 645 1,010 1,192 686 YoY Chg (%) -32.2% 23.2% 13.2% -49.9% 40.4% 148.8% -36.2% -15.2% 73.6% 161.9%
Net profit (Btm) 158 1,344 240 636 234 233 765 1,097 1,192 688 YoY Chg (%) -32.2% 75.7% -1.0% 207.5% 40.4% 57.2% -30.3% -7.9% 73.2% 160.0%QoQ Chg (%) -34.1% -62.3% 171.5% 0.4% -3.7%
EPS (Bt) 0.07 0.59 0.10 0.28 0.10 0.10 0.34 0.48 0.53 0.34
Total assets (Btm) 10,465 10,418 10,418 10,851 10,804 10,565 10,291 9,247 6,620 3,586 Equity (Btm) 5,213 5,048 5,048 4,736 4,099 4,213 3,983 4,266 3,325 1,706
Outstanding debt (Btm) 3,902 4,031 4,031 4,785 5,502 5,156 5,303 4,030 2,471 1,464Net debt (Btm) 3,264 3,124 3,124 3,554 4,782 4,593 4,787 3,322 1,507 1,108
Net debt to equity (x) 0.63 0.62 0.62 0.75 1.17 1.09 1.20 0.78 0.45 0.65ROE (%) (average equity) N/A 29.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A 18.5% 28.9% 47.4% 52.2%
26
Interest rate (MLR)
Source: BOT, Asian Property Development 27
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