Asian Modeling Exercise - €¦ · 41 People are Attending the First Meeting 11 from USA, 9 from Europe, 6 from Japan, 6 from India, 4 from China, 2 from Korea, 1 from Indonesia,

Overview of the Asian Modeling Exercise

Leon Clarke, Kate Calvin, Jae EdmondsSeptember 17, 2009

Tsukuba, Japan

Acknowledgements

Our thanks to the following organizations for their funding:

This is an open process and we welcome funding from other interested parties.

Goals of the Exercise

Objective: to better articulate the role of Asia in addressing climate change.

Enhancing the Suite of Scenarios that Explore Asia’s Role in Addressing Climate ChangeEnhancing the Ability of Models to Effectively Represent Asia

Means: To bring together global modelers that commonly participate in efforts to explore international policy architectures with regional modelers and experts with Asia-specific knowledge, understanding, data, and analysis.

A coordinated modeling exercise that attempts to link these communities to provide more effective modeling and analysis of Asia within a global context.

A small set of coordinated scenarios and a range of extensions by individual modeling teams.

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Motivation: Asia’s RoleGDP POPULATION

PRIMARY ENERGY CO2 EMISSIONS

EMF 22 MiniCAM Scenario (Reference)

Motivation: China & India’s Role in 2050

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GDP POPULATION

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Two Categories of Issues for Better Articulating the Role of Asia in Addressing Climate Change

Enhancing the Suite of Scenarios that Explore Asia’s Role in Addressing Climate Change

Have we identified the most pressing issues that modeling could address?Have we, accordingly, articulated the most valuable scenarios?

Enhancing the Ability of Models to Effectively Represent AsiaWhat key elements are missing from the representations of Asia in the global models? In the regional models?Which elements could we improve through this exercise? How?How can the global models leverage off the regional models?How can the regional models leverage off the global models?

Schedule

First Meeting: When: September 17-18, 2009Where: Tsukuba, JapanObjective:

Review Existing Asian Scenarios WorkPlan a New Scenario Exercise

2 to 3 subsequent meetings, every 6 months2nd Meeting: March 20103rd Meeting: September 2010

Final Product:Special Issue of a Journal (2011)

1st Meeting’s Agenda

Day 1: 18 Presentations, 20 Minutes Each

We need to be very strict about time managementPre-defined presentation template

4 slides describing the model1 slide on Asian baselines3 slides on Asian scenarios

Day 2: Focus on the plan going forward

AGENDA Day 1: September 17, 2009

8:30 to 8:40 Welcome – Mikiko Kainuma 8:40 to 8:45 Introduction – Jae Edmonds 8:45 to 9:20 Overview – Leon Clarke OVERVIEW OF MODELING CAPABILITY—THE GLOBAL MODELS

Chair: Leon Clarke 9:20 to 9:40 Kate Calvin: PNNL 9:40 to 10:00 Geoff Blanford: EPRI 10:00 to 10:20 Keywan Riahi: IIASA 10:20 to 10:40 COFFEE BREAK OVERVIEW OF MODELING CAPABILITY—THE REGIONAL MODELS

Chair: Jae Edmonds 10:40 to 11:00 Ram Shrestha: Asian Institute of Technology 11:00 to 11:20 Chin Siong Ho: U. Technology Malaysia 11:20 to 11:40 Jiang Kejun: China Energy Research Institute 11:40 to NOON Yong Gun Kim: Korea Environment Institute LUNCH NOON to 13:00 Jiang Kejun: What Do Asian Policy Makers Want To Know: China OVERVIEW OF MODELING CAPABILITY—THE GLOBAL MODELS

Chair: Geoff Blanford 13:00 to 13:20 Valentina Bosetti: FEEM 13:20 to 13:40 Elmar Kriegler: PIK 13:40 to 14:00 Peter Russ: EU 14:00 to 14:20 Junichi Fujino: NIES 14:20 to 14:40 Tom Kram: PBL 14:40 to 15:00 Dominique van der Mensbrugghe: WB 15:00 to 15:20 Atsushi Kurosawa: JIEA 15:20 to 15:40 COFFEE BREAK OVERVIEW OF MODELING CAPABILITY—THE REGIONAL MODELS

Chair: Stephanie Walldoff 15:40 to 16:00 Suduk Kim: AJOU University 16:00 to 16:20 Vaibhav Chaturvedi or P.R. Shukla: IIAM 16:20 to 16:40 Zhang Xiliang: Tsinghua University 16:40 to 17:00 Shuichi Ashina: NIES OPTIONS FOR THE ASIAN MODELING EXERCISE

Chair: Leon Clarke 17:00 to 17:30 OPEN DISCUSSION

Participants

41 People are Attending the First Meeting11 from USA, 9 from Europe, 6 from Japan, 6 from India, 4 from China, 2 from Korea, 1 from Indonesia, 1 from Thailand, 1 from Malaysia

10 Global Modeling Teams:EU, EPRI, FEEM, IIASA, JGCRI, JIEA, NIES, PBL, PIK, World Bank

6 Regional Modeling Teams:Asian Institute of Technology, China Energy Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Korea Environment Institute, AJOU University, IIAM

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Possible Topics

Growth and Development Paths: The effect of different population and economic growth assumptions in Asian regions

EMF 22 International Transition Scenarios (Reference)

CHINA’S GDP CHINA’S CO2 EMISSIONS

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REFERENCE4.5 W/m2 N.T.E.3.7 W/m2 N.T.E.2.6 W/m2 O.S.

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REFERENCE4.5 W/m2 N.T.E.3.7 W/m2 N.T.E.2.6 W/m2 O.S.

International Climate Targets: The implications of varying international climate policies on Asian regions

EMF 22 International Transition Scenarios

CHINA’S GDP INDIA’S GDP

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Annex I

POLICY REGIONS

Economy-Wide CO2 Constraint

Annex I

Power Sector Carbon Intensity

Africa, China, India, Latin America, Korea, Middle East, Southeast Asia

CAFE Standard China, India, Latin America, Korea, Middle East, Southeast Asia

Biofuels Target China, India, Latin America, Korea, Southeast Asia

Industry Carbon Constraint

China, Korea

Policy-Based Crediting Africa, China, India, Latin America, Korea, Middle East, Southeast Asia

2035 Emissions by Sector

2035 Emissions by Region

Source: PNNL/Pew Center Collaboration

Non-Cap-and-Trade Climate Policies: The impact of various policy based commitments (e.g., RPS, energy efficiency standards, CAFE standards) on Asian regions

Possible Topics

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Non-Climate Policies: The impact of various non-climate policies (e.g., sulfur standards, BC policies) on Asian regions

EMF 22 MiniCAM Scenario (Reference)

GLOBAL SO2 EMISSIONSGLOBAL MEAN

TEMPERATURE RISE

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Technology: The effect of various technology assumptions (different technology availability, different costs) on mitigation in Asian regions

CHINA’S CO2 EMISSIONS INDIA’S CO2 EMISSIONS

EMF 22 MiniCAM Scenario (Reference & Scenario 1 3.7 W/m2 N.T.E.)

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Land-use Policies: The impact of land-use policies (e.g., offsets, REDD) on agriculture, land-use, and land-use change emissions in Asian regions.

EMF 22 MiniCAM Scenario (Reference & Scenario 1 3.7 W/m2 O.S.)

CHINA’S LAND INDIA’S LAND

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Imperfect Cooperation on Climate Policy: The degree of emissions leakage in Asian regions as a result of differentiated climate policies around the world.

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REFERENCE3.7 W/m2 OVERSHOOT

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Climate Policy on Energy Security and International Trade: The implications of climate policy on energy security and international trade within Asia, and between Asia and the rest of the world.

CHINA’S OIL CONSUMPTION INDIA’S OIL CONSUMPTION

EMF 22 International Transition Scenarios (2100)

Possible TopicsGrowth and Development Paths: The effect of different population and economic growth assumptions in Asian regions

International Climate Targets: The implications of varying international climate policies on Asian regions

Non-Cap-and-Trade Climate Policies: The impact of various policy based commitments (e.g., RPS, energy efficiency standards, CAFE standards) on Asian regions

Non-Climate Policies: The impact of various non-climate policies (e.g., sulfur standards, BC policies) on Asian regions

Technology: The effect of various technology assumptions (different technology availability, different costs) on mitigation in Asian regions

Land-use Policies: The impact of land-use policies (e.g., offsets, REDD) on agriculture, land- use, and land-use change emissions in Asian regions.

Imperfect Cooperation on Climate Policy: The degree of emissions leakage in Asian regions as a result of differentiated climate policies around the world.

Climate Policy on Energy Security and International Trade: The implications of climate policy on energy security and international trade within Asia, and between Asia and the rest of the world.

Address a subset of these in the core scenarios! address the rest in in extensions by the individual modeling groups. We must prioritize.

THIS IS A GOAL-ORIENTED MEETING

We have two primary objectives.Figure out what sort modeling capabilities and results are out there, at both the regional and global scale.Get a sense of the highest value next steps to move forward on a coordinated scenario exercise.

Enhancing the Suite of Scenarios that Explore Asia’s Role in Addressing Climate ChangeEnhancing the Ability of Models to Effectively Represent Asia

We want to keep conversation focused on these two objectives.We have a lot of material to go through, so we will plan to be dictatorial in keeping the process on track.