Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre APERC Workshop The 49 th APEC Energy Working Group and Associated Meetings Gyeongju, Republic of Korea, 22 June, 2015.

Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

APERC Workshop The 49th APEC Energy Working Group and Associated Meetings

Gyeongju, Republic of Korea, 22 June, 2015

6th APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook

Cecilia TamDeputy Vice President, APERC

2APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario

3APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2012 2020 2030 2040

Mto

e

Non-energy

Agricultural andnon-specified

Commercial

Residential

Transport

Industry

APEC Total Final Energy Demand

Energy demand rises 50% by 2040, led by higher demand in transport

Source: APERC Analysis

Preliminary results

4APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Growth in Final Energy Demand compared to 2012

China and South East Asia account for nearly 90% of all additional demand

Note: Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other North East Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei), South East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam)

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2020 2030 2040

Mto

e

South East Asia

Oceania

Other Americas

Other NE Asia

Russia

US

China

Source: APERC Analysis

Preliminary results

5APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

2012 20400

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

HydroNuclearOther RenewablesGasOilCoal

Axis Title

Mto

eFossil Fuels Continue to Dominate

Fuel Shares  1990 2012 2040

Coal 27.9% 37.5% 34.3%Oil 35.7% 28.3% 28.6%Gas 20.2% 20.2% 22.2%Hydro 1.9% 2.2% 2.7%Other Renewables 8.6% 7.2% 7.9%Nuclear 5.8% 4.6% 4.2%

86% Fossi

lfuel

85% Fossi

lfuel

Natural gas demand will increase by 57% in 2040 from 2012 level while hydro and other renewables will increase by 63% within the same period.

Source: APERC Analysis

Preliminary results

6APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

APEC Energy Supply Gap

1990

2000

2012

2030

2040

-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

-402

-353

-569

-812

-1004

494

680

772

778

785

304

650

345386

1594

1784

-243

-276 251

ChinaRussiaOther NEAUSOther AmericasOceaniaSEA

Mtoe

Axis Title

Net Exporter Net Importer

Supply gap is define as demand minus production.

Source: APERC Analysis

Preliminary results

7APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Generation, 2012 and 2040 [TWh]

Electricity Generation By Region 7

[TWh]

2012 20400

2000400060008000

1000012000 China

Axis Title

2012 20400

200400600800

100012001400 Russia

Axis Title

2012 20400

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000 United States

Axis Title

2012 20400

500

1000

1500

2000Other Amer-

icas

Axis Title

2012 20400

100

200

300

400

500 Oceania

Axis Title

2012 20400

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000 SE Asia

Axis Title

China and South East Asia drive future electricity demand in APEC

Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map. Source: APERC Analysis

Preliminary results

2012 20400

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Other NEA

8APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

APEC Energy Investment in Energy Supply

Low Cost Investment Case – USD 24 Trillion High Cost Investment Case – USD 73 Trillion

Total Energy Investment by Sub-Sector

Investments in power and upstream dominate the energy sector. Power sector investments are estimated to range from US$ 8 trillion to US$ 36 trillion, while those for upstream production range from US$ 14 trillion to US$ 30.5 trillion

(In USD Trillion)

(Source: APERC Analysis)

Note: Upstream (oil, gas and coal production), Downstream (refinary, LNG import and expoert terminals), Transport (oil, gas and coal) and Power (generation, transmission and distribution

Preliminary results

14.01

1.01

8.11

0.86Upstream (Oil, Gas and Coal Production)

Downstream (Refinery and LNG Import and Export Terminals)

Power (Generating Capac-ity, Transmission and Distribution Lines)

Transport (Oil, Gas and Coal Transport)

9APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Alternative Scenarios

10APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 204040

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Chart Title

BAU Energy Intensity Index Alternative Energy Intensity Index

Axis Title

Energ

y inte

nsit

y index (

2005 b

ase y

ear)

APEC’s Energy Intensity BAU vs Alternative

APEC’s target in 2035 can be met under the alternative scenario

Source: APERC Analysis

45% reduction target

Preliminary results

11APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Energy Savings Compared to BAU

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Indust

ry

Tra

nsp

ort

Res

iden

tial

Indust

ry

Tra

nsp

ort

Res

iden

tial

Indust

ry

Tra

nsp

ort

Res

iden

tial

2020 2030 2040

Mto

e

South East Asia

Oceania

Other Americas

Other NE Asia

Russia

US

China

Preliminary results

Source: APERC Analysis

12APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Renewables in APEC – 2012, 2030 and 2040

Source: APERC Analysis

2012 BAU: 761 GW2030 High Renewables (HR): 2,526 GW2040 High Renewables (HR): 2,874 GW

China

Russia

United States

Other North East Asia

Other Americas

South East Asia

Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map.

BAU-2012

HR-2030

HR-2040

0

500

1000

1500

Axis TitleBAU-2012

HR-2030 HR-2040

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Axis Title

BAU-2012

HR-2030

HR-2040

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20

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100

Axis TitleBAU-2012

HR-2030 HR-2040

0

50

100

150

200

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300

Axis Title

BAU-2012

HR-2030

HR-2040

0

50

100

150

200

Axis Title

Oceania

BAU-2012

HR-2030

HR-2040

0

100

200

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500

600

Axis Title

BAU-2012

HR-2030

HR-2040

0

50

100

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350

400

Axis Title

#REF!

Geothermal

Other Renewables

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Preliminary results

13APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Renewables in Transport

• Just considering the gov’t blend targets, the share of biofuels will more than double from 2.2% in the total transport demand in 2010 to 6.0% in 2030

• However as only 1st generation biofuels are assumed in the model, supply potential for bioethanol for both BAU and high supply does not meet the demand by 2020 onwards.

Source: APERC Analysis

Mtoe 2010 2020 2030 2040

Hi-Bioethanol Demand

26 78 91 89

Hi-Biodiesel Demand 2 20 34 42

Hi-Supply, Bioethanol

57 68 83 101

Hi-Supply, Biodiesel 22 33 48 66

Preliminary results

14APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

• The scenario strives to maximize the use of clean coal, natural gas and nuclear in the electricity generation of APEC member economies

• To illustrate the hypothetical effects and policy implications from drastic changes in the power mix

Alternative Power Mix Scenario

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Alternative Power Mix

APEC’s electricity generation, 2012 and 2040: Preliminary results

Actual BAU Cleaner Coal

High Nuc High Gas(50%)

High Gas(100%)

2012 2040

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000 Chart Title

Other Re-newables

Hydro

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Axis Title

TW

h

Data excludes importsSource: APERC Analysis

16APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

CO2 Emissions in Power Sector

Preliminary results

Source: APERC Analysis

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2012 2020 2030 2040

Gt CO

2

BAU High Nuc

Cleaner Coal with CCS Cleaner Coal no CCS

High Gas (50%) High Gas (100%)

17APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

• Scenario results will be updated based on feedback gained at the Annual Conference

• Drafting to take place from July-October

• Volume II (Economy Outlook) to be circulated for review at the end of October, comments requested by end November.

• Volume I to be circulated for review end November, comments requested by the end of the year.

• Release Spring 2016

Next Steps

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

We look forward to your feedback on APERC’s Outlook!

19APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Part 1 – APEC Demand and Supply under BAU Case• Introduction• Final Energy Demand• Primary Energy Supply• Outlook for Power

Part 2 – APEC Demand and Supply under

Alternative Scenarios• APEC Energy Intensity Goal• APEC Doubling Renewable Energy Goal• Alternative Power Mix Scenarios• Energy Investments• Implications for Energy Security and Climate

Change

Table of Contents of 6th edition Vol I

20APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

• Key Messages

• Economy Overview• Business as Usual

• Alternative Scenarios APEC Energy intensity goal APEC Doubling renewables goal Alternative power mix

• Scenario Implications Energy investments Sustainable energy future Opportunities for policy action

Table of Contents of 6th edition Vol II