ASEAN REAL ESTATE ASEAN REAL ESTATE S S S S INVESTMENTS INVESTMENTS Sopon Pornchokchai, Sopon Pornchokchai, PhD D.FIABCI CRS MRICS PhD D.FIABCI CRS MRICS President, Agency for Real Estate Affairs President, Agency for Real Estate Affairs Director Thai Real Estate Business School Director Thai Real Estate Business School 1 Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 1994 1994 AGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA) GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA) ISO 9001-2008 CERTIFIED Director , Thai Real Estate Business School Director , Thai Real Estate Business School
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ASEAN REAL ESTATE ASEAN REAL ESTATE S SS SINVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS
Sopon Pornchokchai, Sopon Pornchokchai, PhD D.FIABCI CRS MRICSPhD D.FIABCI CRS MRICSPresident, Agency for Real Estate AffairsPresident, Agency for Real Estate Affairs
Director Thai Real Estate Business SchoolDirector Thai Real Estate Business School
1Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Director, Thai Real Estate Business SchoolDirector, Thai Real Estate Business School
• Board Member, International Advisory Board, the Appraisal Foundation, USA. • FIABCI Representative to the UN ESCAP and Co-Founder of FIABCI ThailandFIABCI Representative to the UN ESCAP and Co Founder of FIABCI Thailand• CRS Trainer, Council of Residential Specialists, National Association of Realtors• Representative of the International Association of Assessing Officers• Consultant to Finance Min. Vietnam/Indonesia, ESCAP, UN-Habitat, ILO, FAO
L i i l i d l i B i C b di I di I d i• Lecturing in valuation and real estate in Brunei, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Philippines and Vietnam.
Research master pieces: the discovery of 1,020 slums (1985), CAMA (computer-esea c aste p eces t e d sco e y o ,0 0 s u s ( 985), C (co puteassisterd mass appraisal) modeling (1990), forecast of 300,000 unoccupied housing units (1995 and 1998), study for property information centre (2000) and land value modeling (2002), Valuation Roadmap, Vietnam Finance Ministry (2006), Val ation Lect re Series Indonesia Finance Ministr (2008) World Bank (2010)
2Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Valuation Lecture Series, Indonesia Finance Ministry (2008), World Bank (2010).
Area of AREA InvolvementArea of AREA Involvement*Makassar*Makassar
*Jakarta*Jakarta *Lom Bok*Lom Bok
Area of AREA InvolvementArea of AREA InvolvementAgency for Real Estate AffairsAgency for Real Estate Affairs
**SurabayaSurabaya
3Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
Pornchokchai, Sopon. Thailand’s Real Estate Valuation in Gelbtuch, Howard
Pornchokchai, Sopon. Housing Finance Mechanisms ,
C., Real Estate Valuation in Global Markets, second edition. Chicago. Appraisal Institute (2011) 617 pp
gin Thailand. Nairobi. UN-
HABITAT (2008). ISBN: 978-92-1-132038-1, 617 pp.
4Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Appraisal Institute (2011), 617 pp. 92 1 132038 1, 617 pp.
COMPARISON OF ASEAN COUNTRIES AND USA TO THAILANDCountries Land Area Population GDP Popu-
(Excluding Com- Million Com- Den- Growth %Urban Bil- Total per cap % of Growth lationWater) pared* pared* sity/ per Popu- lion Com- Com- Agri per belowSq.Km. sq.km Year lation US$ pared* pared* Sector Year Poverty
Campared* = compared to Thailand; www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook as of December 2012
5Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
6Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
1,460Existing Housing g g
Projects Which Still Have Units
Available for Sale as of End
2012
926926 projectsprojects926926 projects projects with > with > 20 20 unitsunits
availableavailableavailableavailable
7Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Newly Launched
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Launched Real Estate
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Bangbua Thong-Supha Rangsit-Nakhonnayok
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. Projects, Jan-Dec
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Chang Watthana Rd
Sainoi-Bang Kruay Rd.
han Buri Rd.
k Rd
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Lamlukka Rd.
RaP
2012,419 projects
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Lad Prao Rd.
Ram Intra Rd.
Phah
on Y
othin
Rd.Rd.
Baromratchachonnani Rd.
Kanc
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Suwin Thawong Rd.
p j
ถนนวง
แหว น
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na-Trad Rd.Thepharak Rd.
Ekach
Rama I
I Rd
8Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
9Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
HighestHighestHighest Highest PricePrice aas of s of
20122012((4 4 Rai)Rai)
No. Zones Zone Name Price (Baht/Sq.wah.)1 I2-4 Siam Square 1,500,0002 BTS-9 Siam Station 1,500,0003 BTS-15 Chit Lom Station 1,500,0004 BTS-16 Ploenchit station 1,500,0005 I2 5 Wi l Rd 1 300 0005 I2-5 Wireless Rd. 1,300,0006 I3-1 Sukhumvit, Time Square 1,300,0007 BTS-10 Ratchadamri Station 1,250,0008 BTS-11 Sala Daeng Station 1,250,0009 I4 2 Sil 1 200 000
10Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
9 I4-2 Silom 1,200,00010 BTS-17 Na Na Station 1,200,000
Map Map 66: T: TOP OP 1010Locations with Locations with
ii
!!
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!!A7-1
A7-2
A2-3
Lowest PriceLowest Price aas of s of 20122012 ((44 Rai)Rai)
M2-2No. Zones Zone Name Price (Baht/Sq.wah.)1 A6-4 Liab Klong 13 Rd., km. 5 2,5002 A1-2 Opposite Bang Sai Craft Centre 4,6003 E5-2 Lam Toy Ting 5,0004 G5-5 Motorway km.34 5,200
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J2-5.1J2-5.2J1-1
K2-2
K2-3K1-1
K3-3K3-2
H4 2
H5-1 H5-2
H6-2H6-1
H7-3
H8-3 H8-4
H8-6
H8-5
G5-5
H9-1
y ,5 A5-3 Rangsit-Wang Noi Rd. 5,5006 E3-1 Pracha Samran 5,5007 H7-2 Sukhumvit km. 46 Bang Bor 5,8008 N6-3 Outer Ring Rd., Samkok 6,0009 A2 2 Eastern Outer Ring km 8 (Bang Khan Wang Noi) 6 500
11Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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!!
!!H7-1
H7-29 A2-2 Eastern Outer Ring km.8 (Bang Khan-Wang Noi) 6,500
10 A2-3 Liab Klong Rapipat 7,000
Map Map 1111: Top Ten : Top Ten Locations with Locations with II P iP iInIncrease Price crease Price
12Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
13Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
!!
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K3-3H7 3
H7-1H7-2
H8-69 E5 3 Thong Samrit Rd. 10,000 9,500 5.0%
10 E4-1 Suwinthawong km. 42 17,000 16,500 -2.9%
Map of Real Estate Projects in Pattaya offered for sales as of July 2012
232 Projects
14Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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Table 1: Situation of Real Estate Projects in Pattaya offered for sales as of July 2012y y
Overall-as of July 2012
Location No 0f Total Average Units PeriodNo 0f Units Percentage of
Overall as of July 2012
Location No. 0f Total Average Units Period
Projects Total Sold Left Value unit price Unit Sold Left Value Sold to go
15Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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Overall-as of July 2012Type No. 0f Total Average Units Period
Projects Total Sold Left Value unit price Unit Sold Left Value Sold to go (Mil.Baht) (Mil.Baht) Average (Months)
16Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
79%
O ll f J l 2012Overall-as of July 2012
Price Range No. 0f Total Total Average Units Period(Mil.Baht) Projects Total Sold Left Value Average unit price Unit Sold Left Value Sold to go
(Mil.Baht) /Month (Mil.Baht) Average (Months)per Month
17Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Overall-as of July 2012
Price Range No. 0f Total Total Average Units Period(Mil.Baht) Projects Total Sold Left Value Average unit price Unit Sold Left Value Sold to go
No. 0f Units Percentage of
(Mil.Baht) /Month (Mil.Baht) Average (Months)per Month
18Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
O ll f J l 2012Price Range No. 0f Total Total Average Units Period
(Mil.Baht) Projects Total Sold Left Value Average unit price Unit Sold Left Value Sold to go
No. 0f Units Percentage of
Overall-as of July 2012
( ) j g p g(Mil.Baht) /Month (Mil.Baht) Average (Months)
19Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
O ll f J l 2012Overall-as of July 2012
Price Range No. 0f Total Total Average Units Period(Mil.Baht) Projects Total Sold Left Value Average unit price Unit Sold Left Value Sold to go
(Mil.Baht) /Month (Mil.Baht) Average (Months)per Month
20Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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Table 2 : Situation of Newly Launched of Real Estate in Pattaya, 2012 (Jan-Jul)y , ( )
21Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Newly Launched 2012 (Jan-Jul)Type No. 0f Total Average Units Period
Projects Total Sold Left Value unit price Unit Sold Left Value Sold to go (Mil.Baht) (Mil.Baht) Average (Months)
Newly Launched Real Estate in Pattya By Value5% 4%
D t h d H
Detached House
Semi-detached House
12%Detached House
Semi-detached House
Shophouse
87%
Shophouse
Condominium
79%
Condominium
22Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
87%
Newly Launched 2012 (Jan-Jul)
Price Range No. 0f Total Total Average Units Period(Mil.Baht) Projects Total Sold Left Value Average unit price Unit Sold Left Value Sold to go
23Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Newly Launched 2012 (Jan-Jul)
Price Range No. 0f Total Total Average Units PeriodNo. 0f Units Percentage of
(Mil.Baht) Projects Total Sold Left Value Average unit price Unit Sold Left Value Sold to go (Mil.Baht) /Month (Mil.Baht) Average (Months)
24Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
0%0%0%0%0%0%
8%Thailand: Value of Housing Units Left for Sale Nationwide, 2012
1%1%
1%1%
1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
2%1%1%1%
SamuiSamui5%
Chiang MaiChiang Mai
52%5%
BangkokCha Am – Hua Hin
9%
Phuket
9%
Pattaya
25Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
9%
26Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
27Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Table 1: Situation of Housing Projects in HCMC offered for sales as of April 2009
No. Zone Projects Units %Units Sold %Sold Left %left Value (US.$) %ValueAverage
28Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Table 5 : Situation of Newly Launched Housing Projects in HCMC
year Project Total (Unit) Value (US.$) Price Per Unit (US.$) Price Per Unit (Baht)
2001 3 714 85,013,750 119,067 4,167,341
2002 4 1,642 178,530,500 108,727 3,805,461
2003 9 2,918 270,359,250 92,652 3,242,829
2004 18 6,985 595,470,260 85,250 2,983,745
2005 23 5,116 615,396,562 120,289 4,210,102
2006 39 8,610 1,279,793,480 148,640 5,202,413
2007 41 14,070 2,695,962,159 191,611 6,706,374
2008 12 2,449 249,202,009 101,757 3,561,482
2009-April 4 1,741 148,219,025 85,134 2,979,705p
Total 153 44,245 6,117,946,995 138,274 4,839,601
29Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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A Inner city areaA Inner city areaB NorthC North-westD Mid westD Mid -westE West
Housing Projects in
Phnom Penh as of A il 2009April 2009
30Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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Table 1: Situation of Housing Projects in Phnom Penh offered for sales as of April 2009
Average UnitNo. Zone Projects Units %Units Sold %Sold Left %left Value (US.$) %Value Average Unit Price (U.S. $)
31Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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Table 4: Situation of Housing Projects in Phnom Penh offered for sales as of April 2009#1/2
Total Number of UnitsPrice (U.S. $) Detached Duplex Townhouse Shophouse Condominium Land Subdivi Total<15,000
32Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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Overall 396 117 418 1,477 358 4 2,771
Table 4: Situation of Housing Projects in Phnom Penh offered for sales as of April 2009 #2/2
Average Unit Price (U.S. $)Price (U.S. $) Detached Duplex Townhouse Shophouse Condominium Land Subdivi Total<15,000
33Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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Overall 77% 85% 46% 70% 67% 100% 67%
6Location of 134 HousingProjects in Manila, Phili i f Q1/2209
57
Philippines as of Q1/2209
37
TEN LOCATIONSIN THIS STUDY1 M k i
12
4
81 Makati2 Manila3 San Juan 1 4
9
3 San Juan4 Pateros5 Valenzuela6 Quezon City North7 Quezon City 8 Pasig-Cainta 108 Pasig-Cainta9 Pasay10 Southern Suburbs
34Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
No. Zone Project Units %Units Sold %Sold Left %LeftValue
(Mil.US.$)
%ValueAv.Price(US.$)
Table 1: Situation of Housing Projects in Manila offered for sales as of April 2009
35Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
36Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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Location House Type Price Range Total Sold Left Value %Sold Av.Makati Condominium 30,001-60,000 3,640 1,854 1,786 160,198,021 13%
37Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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SALES SITUATION OF SELECTED LOCATIONS LAUNCHED IN SALES SITUATION OF SELECTED LOCATIONS LAUNCHED IN 20092009
of of 219 219 Housing Housing P j tP j tProjects Projects
SurveyedSurveyed38
Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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SurveyedSurveyed
Table 1: Total No. of Units SurveyedYear Units Launched Units Built
39Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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Table 2: Situation of Housing Projects in Jakarta as of December 2008No. Zone Proj Total Sold Value % of
-ect Units % Units % Mil.Rupiah Bil.US$ Mil.Rp/Unit Value
Total 219 52,184 100% 33,578 64% 41,121,652 3,738 788 100%Agency for Real Estate Affairs, www.area.co.thNote: US$ 1 = Rp.11,000Note: US$ 1 Rp.11,000
40Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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Table 5: Situation of Housing Projects in Jakarta offered for sales as of December 2008Total Number of Units Average Unit Price (Mil.Rupiah)
41Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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Considering the economic situation of countries compared to 2010 or two years ago, 56% assessed that it was better. Only 7% said that it was worsening The rest (36%) saw no change In detail most valuerswas worsening. The rest (36%) saw no change. In detail, most valuers from Brunei, Singapore, and Thailand saw no change; whereas, the rest saw some significant, positive changes. However, regarding the g g g geconomy in the next two years (2014), most (67%) said that it would be better. Only 4% said that it was worsening. Most of the Thai valuers assessed that the situation could be the same as todayassessed that the situation could be the same as today.
In the case of property markets, 63% assessed that the situation was better than that in 2010 However only half of the valuers in Thailandbetter than that in 2010. However, only half of the valuers in Thailand and Brunei assessed the situation in this way. This might be due to the past political turmoil in Thailand or the economic stagnation in Brunei. Concerning future prospects for 2014, most (66%) believed that they would be better. Only 8% said the contrary. In the case of Thailand, it was considered that the 2014 property markets would still be the samewas considered that the 2014 property markets would still be the same as today. Perhaps Thai valuers were not so confident about the future prospects of the economy or the property markets.
42Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Considering the AEC, 62% perceived that the AEC would have a positive effect on their own countries. However, for the countries outside the ASEAN region this would not have much effect Among theoutside the ASEAN region, this would not have much effect. Among the ASEAN countries, Thailand and Vietnam seemed to be worried about the AEC. Perhaps competition might be worrying them.g y g
Vietnam seemed to be most ready for the AEC in 2015, where the level of readiness assessed by valuers was 86%. The second was Malaysia at 72%, and the third was Thailand at 67%, followed by Indonesia (63%). Brunei and the Philippines earned 58% and 57%. The lowest score was Cambodia (48%) There was no assessment for Singaporescore was Cambodia (48%). There was no assessment for Singapore because of the few numbers of respondents in this case.
43Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
It is expected that in terms of real estate development, Thailand will be among the largest markets. According to the Agency for Real Estate Affairs which is Thailand’s first and largest real estate information andAffairs, which is Thailand s first and largest real estate information and valuation centre, the annual development value of real estate is around US$ 10 billion. Therefore, investors from other countries may like to ycome to this attractive market. Although the Jakarta and Manila markets are smaller to that of Bangkok, they both will have strong attraction for investors The fast growing economy and strong political stability ofinvestors. The fast-growing economy and strong political stability of Indonesia and the Philippines are among the major drives behind the promising property markets.
44Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
45Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
46Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
47Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
48Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
49Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
Kobe Comparison, Kobe Comparison, 19951995 andand 200520051995 1995 and and 20052005httphttp://://wwwwww..citycity..kobekobe..jpjp//cityofficecityoffice//1515//020020//quaquakeke//teitenteiten//tt--index_eindex_e..htmlhtml
50Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Pinatubo, the Philippines:Cleveland Volcano in the Aleutian
Islands of Alaska:, pphttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/
Krakatoa (1883), Sumbava (1915), Toba Lake (70,000 years ago)
51Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
injuries and 2,817 missing in Thailand. For Phuket, 259 were dead, 1,111 were injured and 700 still were missing.
52Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Property prices even increased in Acehdue to better infrastructure improvement.
53Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
Nai Thon Ao Po7.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 15.0
|
Nai Yang
July July 0404,,Apr. Apr. 0505,,MarMar 0707
Bang Tao
S i
7.5 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 11.0| 12.0| 15.0
9.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 14.0| 15.0 | 18.0
3.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.0| 5.0 |7.5
Mar. Mar. 0707, , Mar. Mar. 0808,,
Surin Sapam3.0 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.5| 4.5 |7.0
Kamala10.0 | 12.0 | 15.0 | 16.0| 17.0 |20.0
Aug. Aug. 0909DecDec 1212
Patong40.0 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 70.0| 80.0 | 120.0
|
Serae5.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 8.0| 8.0 | 10.0
Dec.Dec.1212Karon
K t
Phuket20.0 | 20.0 | 25.0 | 30.0| 35.0| 42.0
10.0 | 12.0 | 15.0 | 18.0| 20.0 | 25.0
6.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 8.0| 8.5| 10.0
Chalong 5 0 | 5 5 | 6 0 | 7 0| 7 5| 9 5
54Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Kata
Rawai5.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 7.0| 7.5| 9.0
Chalong 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 7.0| 7.5| 9.5
HILO, HAWAIIHILO, HAWAII19601960 VICTIM OF TSUNMIVICTIM OF TSUNMI1960 1960 VICTIM OF TSUNMIVICTIM OF TSUNMIThe buildings of downtown Hilo Town carry the legacy asThe buildings of downtown Hilo Town carry the legacy asThe buildings of downtown Hilo Town carry the legacy as The buildings of downtown Hilo Town carry the legacy as the commerce center that sugar built. Despite tsunami, the commerce center that sugar built. Despite tsunami, threats of lava flow the end of the sugar industry and thethreats of lava flow the end of the sugar industry and thethreats of lava flow, the end of the sugar industry and the threats of lava flow, the end of the sugar industry and the resulting economic consequences these buildings resulting economic consequences these buildings remain They are a lot like the people of Hilo they areremain They are a lot like the people of Hilo they areremain. They are a lot like the people of Hilo, they are remain. They are a lot like the people of Hilo, they are survivors who refuse to give in to forces of both natural survivors who refuse to give in to forces of both natural and commercialand commercial (http://www(http://www 123123relocation com/Hawaii/Hilo/)relocation com/Hawaii/Hilo/)and commercial. and commercial. (http://www.(http://www.123123relocation.com/Hawaii/Hilo/)relocation.com/Hawaii/Hilo/)
House prices in Hawaii increased House prices in Hawaii increased 1111%% per year durinper year during g 1975 1975 to to 20072007 (http://www.ofheo.gov/media/hpi/4q07hpi_sts.csv)
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ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
War & Contamination,War & Contamination, Hiroshima- Tourist destination:ou st dest at oOn Monday, August 6, 1945, the nuclear weapon Little Boy was dropped on Hiroshima, . . . directly killing an estimated 80,000 people. By y g , p p ythe end of the year, injury and radiation brought total casualties to 90,000-140,000. Approximately 69% of the city's buildings were pp y y gcompletely destroyed, and 6.6% severely damaged. . . Hiroshima was rebuilt after the war.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiroshima
56Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
Case StudyCase Study 66: Bali Bomb &: Bali Bomb &The Monument of the Victimshttp://picasaweb.google.com/jeanhooi/BaliRetreat07/photo#5090317410640734994
Case Study Case Study 66: Bali Bomb & : Bali Bomb & Terrorism, October Terrorism, October 1212, , 20022002
57Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
#5090317410640734994
Number of Foreign Guests In Classified Hotels, Indonesia (Thousand)Province 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam 1.7 0.5 0.5 9.7 25.1North Sumatera 107.0 84.9 117.9 122.7 143.3West Sumatera 13 3 10 8 27 2 21 0 28 4
The first major Bomb on OctoberWest Sumatera 13.3 10.8 27.2 21.0 28.4
R i a u 627.0 637.2 527.4 654.7 41.7J a m b i 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.5South Sumatera 3.6 7.7 3.4 2.1 1.4Bengkulu 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3Lampung 4.8 3.3 3.8 3.1 2.9
on October 12, 2002 and
once again Kep. Bangka Belitung 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2Kepulauan Riau - - - - 753.7DKI Jakarta 722.3 625.8 705.2 713.5 652.6West Java 92.9 81.0 81.6 83.5 87.6Central Java 51.4 42.1 97.3 74.7 40.6DI Y k t 91 5 61 9 75 5 79 5 73 8
o ce agaon October 1, 2005, in Bali h b bDI Yogyakarta 91.5 61.9 75.5 79.5 73.8
East Java 132.6 135.1 76.1 110.9 101.1B a n t e n 165.4 120.8 25.6 116.2 97.2B a l i 1,218.1 1,033.8 1,651.9 1,461.2 1,261.3West Nusa Tenggara 57.0 29.3 45.6 49.5 42.3East Nusa Tenggara 1 9 1 5 2 1 2 3 3 1
where bombs exploded at two sites inEast Nusa Tenggara 1.9 1.5 2.1 2.3 3.1
West Kalimantan 8.9 6.9 4.5 8.8 12.0Central Kalimantan 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5South Kalimantan 4.4 4.4 5.8 4.5 4.6East Kalimantan 22.8 26.8 27.8 26.4 24.1North Sulawesi 11.2 8.9 11.1 9.9 6.2
two sites in Jimbaran and Kuta, both in
th B liNorth Sulawesi 11.2 8.9 11.1 9.9 6.2Central Sulawesi 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3South Sulawesi 23.1 20.8 20.2 19.0 18.4South East Sulawesi 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0Gorontalo - - - - 0.2West Sulawesi - - - - 0.0
south Bali. Twenty
people wereM a l u k u 1.2 0.8 2.3 1.5 1.4Maluku Utara 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1West Irian Jaya - - - - 1.1P a p u a 11.9 8.0 10.8 5.9 3.2Indonesia 3,377.5 2,955.5 3,527.6 3,584.0 3,430.2
Source: Statistics Indonesia: http://www bps go id/sector/tourism/table4 shtml
people were killed, and
129 people
58Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Source: Statistics Indonesia: http://www.bps.go.id/sector/tourism/table4.shtml
A BUST IS A BUST IS PREVENTABLEPREVENTABLE& FORESEABLE& FORESEABLE
However, due to the However, due to the lack of soft law andlack of soft law andlack of soft law and lack of soft law and standards of standards of professionalprofessionalhtt // ti l fid ti l / t t/ l d /2011/03/f k hi d ii hi jprofessional professional practices, disaster practices, disaster emergesemerges
The TEPCO plant couldThe TEPCO plant couldThe TEPCO plant could The TEPCO plant could have been exploded have been exploded even prior to Tsunami.even prior to Tsunami.http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archive
/2011/03/21/2003498744
59Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
pps/2011/03/21/2003498744
Brisbane / Singapore, Brisbane / Singapore, 20102010, , 20112011, , 2012 2012 flooded even on Orchard Road!flooded even on Orchard Road!
60Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
61Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
Source: Agency for Real Estate Affairs (www.area.co.th), Mid 2012
MEASURES MEASURES FOR THE FOR THE SAKE OF SAKE OF CONSUMERS:CONSUMERS:CONSUMERS:CONSUMERS:
Shanghai: May Shanghai: May 2323--2626, Jul , Jul 1717--2121, Sep , Sep 1111--1515, , 20102010
yyp g p g
62Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
MEASURES FOR THE SAKE MEASURES FOR THE SAKE OF CONSUMERS:OF CONSUMERS:
Not for developers or Not for developers or financiers but the people!!!financiers but the people!!!financiers but the people!!!financiers but the people!!!
Hong Kong:Hong Kong:JuneJune 1010 –– 1414 20102010 www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201011/19/P201011190294.htm
63Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
June June 10 10 –– 1414, , 20102010
MEASURES MEASURES FOR THE FOR THE SAKE OF SAKE OF
THETHETHE THE COUNTRY:COUNTRY:
1010% % stamp dutystamp dutyp yp y
to curb to curb foreign foreign ggbuyers!buyers!
64Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED
International Buyers and Sellers of Real Estate.
htt // j l l ll /R hL l1/A t li Wh t t f t df
March 10-12, 2012Sydney Valuation Visit
65Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
INTANGIBLE PROPERTY(INTANGIBLE ASSETS):(INTANGIBLE ASSETS):nonphysical assets, including but not limited to franchises, trademarks, patents,limited to franchises, trademarks, patents, copyrights, goodwill, equities, securities, and contracts as distinguished from physical assets such as facilities and equipment.http://commerce appraisalfoundation org/html/2006%20USPAP/DEFINITIONS htmhttp://commerce.appraisalfoundation.org/html/2006%20USPAP/DEFINITIONS.htm
http://www.thethousand.net/misc/intangible.jpg
66Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED 66
http://www.thethousand.net/misc/intangible.jpg
A BRAND has value because:It produces income (e.g. franchising).It produces income (e.g. franchising).It belongs to a certain market of willing buyers and sellers at a certain period of timesellers at a certain period of time.It possesses know-how (not know-who-is-who).
Brand Factors of Brand ValueLegal Know-how Market Finance Quality
B k XBank XBeer X XSoft Drink X X XCar XGUCCI Beneton X XMi ft X X XMicrosoft X X XR.E. DeveloperR.E. Agent X
67Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
ISO 9001-2008CERTIFIED 67
g
A B C DValue of A Real Estate Brand
1 Value of Development /Year (Millions of US$)
300.0 e.g. a public company
2Costs of Advertisement /year 2.7
The most popular Thainewspaper, US$ 15,000 per
d 180 dy
page per day, 180 days3 Cost of Insurance / year 3% Escrow Account / Fair contracts
V = I / RValue = Net Operating Income / Capitalization Rate
68Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
69Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
T Share- E l S li C t Commu-Corporate Governance of Business
Types Shareholders
Employees Suppliers Customers Community/Envi
BanksShare-
ExploitationRecruit- Loan
Banks holders Exploitation ment servicesInterest
P t l F hi P iPetroleum Franchisee PricesGas station boysboys
Factory Exploitation Quality Nuisance
Public Co Share- QualityPublic Coholders
Quality
Developers Quality NuisanceC lt t E l it ti Q litConsultants Exploitation Quality
70Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)
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72Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since Thailand’s First Real Estate Info Centre Since 19941994AAGENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)GENCY FOR REAL ESTATE AFFAIRS (AREA)