1 ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) Agreement as an International Regime: The Impact Analysis on ASEAN By: Muti Dewitari (0706165570) Rindo Sai’o (0706165583) Dyah Ayunico Ramadhani (0706291230) Erika (0706291243) Tri Andriyanto (0706291451) DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS FACULTY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF INDONESIA 2009
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ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) Agreement as an International Regime, The Impact Analysis on ASEAN
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ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA)
Agreement as an International Regime:
The Impact Analysis on ASEAN
By:
Muti Dewitari (0706165570)
Rindo Sai’o (0706165583)
Dyah Ayunico Ramadhani (0706291230)
Erika (0706291243)
Tri Andriyanto (0706291451)
DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
FACULTY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
UNIVERSITY OF INDONESIA
2009
2
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background
Regional dynamic of East Asia is influenced by the trade factor among countries in
the region. China, Japan, and South Korea have played significant roles in trade activity.
China itself has become the most influential player in shaping world’s economy. The massive
economy growth in China does not only rely on its domestic economy growth, but also on its
trade activity with other nations. One of the regions which have been an extremely important
in shaping China’s economy growth is Southeast Asia region.
Looking from ASEAN’s point of view, China has also emerged as an important
trading partner for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) since the
mid-1990s.1 Since then, China remains important in influencing the economic growth in
Southeast Asian countries. Most export products of ASEAN countries are being sold in China;
due to its massive size and population, China is seen as a promising market to sell goods for
every country in the world, including ASEAN countries. For China itself, Southeast Asia is
also seen as a big market to distribute its products. Therefore, the cooperation between China
and ASEAN should be the mutual benefit one, since China and ASEAN countries need each
other as well. This look-a-like mutual benefit cooperation between China and ASEAN
happened on 2005, when both parties agree to ratify the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area
(ACFTA) agreement.
While the main idea of creating the ACFTA comes from China, but later on ASEAN
could also gets much benefits from this economic cooperation agreement. China, in one side,
experiences an increasing amount of total import; whilst ASEAN countries, in the other side,
gain benefit in the increasing number of total export.
1.2. Research Question
1 Evelyn Devadason, China’s Future: Pitfalls, Prospects and the Implications for ASEAN and the World.
http://ics.um.edu.my/umweb/ics/may2009/evelyn.pdf, accessed on November 22, 2009, 03.25 PM.
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This paper will try to answer this specific question: How ASEAN-China Free Trade
Area (ACFTA) as an international regime could benefit ASEAN’s countries?
1.3. Theoretical Framework
Regionalism is seen as an international regime that is used to attain a certain goal or
interest. According to Stephen Krasner, the definition of regime is a set principals, norms,
rules, and procedures in an implicit policy making process where the expectation of the actors
meet in a certain given area in international relations. The presence of the regime is
considered essentials to provide the framework of negotiations by reducing transaction cost
and to help coordinate the expectation of the actors by improving quality and quantity of
information existed for the state.2 According to Keohane, the demand for the international
regime may change depending on the nature of the international system-in terms of
transaction costs- and the effects of the characteristic of the international regime itself in
terms of the information. The more a group of states is interdependent then the bigger will the
demand and need for an international regime be. Thus we can conclude that coordination in
international regime and its development are not only dependent to the existing interest and
power but also to the existing expectations and information.
Through the cognitive knowledge-based approach, we could deduce that even
different interpretations about interest and power might exist and happen. The cognitive
knowledge-based approach sees that learning and ideology influence rules and international
cooperation by showing the importance or unimportance of a certain value.3 This is in line
with the previous explaination of how knowledge or information achieved from the
international regime or system can change the interest of the actors. This cognitive approach
emphasizes on how today’s desicions might not be the same with previous decisions not
only because the actor take the future into considerations but also because they take into
account the past as well. The interest of a certain actors only emerge from a certain normative
2 Robert O. Keohane, “The Demand for International Regime”, in Theory and Structure in International
Political Economy, Charles Lipson and Benjamin J. Cohen (eds.). (Massachusetts: the MIT Press, 1999), p.
161. 3 Stephen Haggard and Beth A. Simmons, “Theories of International Regimes”, in Theory and Structure in
International Political Economy, Charles Lipson and Benjamin J. Cohen (eds.), Massachusetts: the MIT Press,
1999), p. 198.
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and epistemic context and cannot be explicate outside that context. Thus the essence of
cooperation cannot be elucidate without refering to the ideology and value of the actors, their
views upon interdepence issue, and the provided information of how they could carry out a
certain specific goal. The cooperation is influenced by the perception and misperception,
capacity to process information, and learning ability.4 The cognitive approach believes that
in analyzing international phenomena in this term is the international regime, social
institutions and the inseparable actors with the social-political context of the environment.
Interest and power are not the only important and influencial points; Environment and
perception are also as important as the previous points. In this particular case, the regime
theory is essential in identifying the ideology, value, norms, rules, and procedures that
influence the establishment of regime especially regional regime.
4 Ibid, p. 198.
INTERNATIONAL REGIME
To prevent a “war of all against all” in a
structural anarchy; facilitated through
an agreement or treaty
intra-government
SUPPLY SIDE ARGUMENT
Hegemonic Stability Theory
International regime is able to
produce more public goods than in a
fragmented system.
DEMAND SIDE ARGUMENT
1. Agreement
A regime facilitated an agreement by
giving rules, norms, principles, and
procedures in an international politics.
2. Transaction cost
When there is an international regime,
the transaction among members would
be decreased.
3. To reduce uncertainty
The norms of a commitment could be
used to overcome conflict that
emerges from the uncertainty by using
assumption about future behavior. The
international regime creates a
coordinated game based on
antagonistic calculation.
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CHAPTER II
CONTENT
2.1. Description of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA)
In 2001, at an ASEAN-China Summit in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam,
China came up with a proposal offering ASEAN-China Free Trade Area in a period of ten
years. Chinese proposal on the meeting itself is limited only to learn more about the
feasibility. In the process, negotiations continued between the two sides. Within one year, at a
meeting in Phnom Penh in November 2002, ASEAN and Chinese leaders ready to sign a
Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation (CEC), wherein there is
also discussion of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA).5
There is no doubt that the Chinese proposal is very interesting. However, China and
ASEAN also saw the economic significance of China's proposed initiatives. The initiatives to
develop economic cooperation with ASEAN initiated by China. With the success of China
became a member of the WTO, indicating that China has been transformed into a party that
was already seen in negotiating various trade agreements. Of course, ASEAN must be able to
position so as not harmed in these trade agreements.
Trade agreement between ASEAN and China begins with an introduction to the
Early Harvest program.6 From the beginning of this course, can be seen that there is an effort
to drive China to ASEAN economic cooperation would be profitable Chinese economy. Of
course, this makes other countries in East Asia are interested in starting a similar trade
agreement with ASEAN, with the aim of earning profits, as do Japan and also agreed that
trade agreements with ASEAN. In ASEAN itself, couldn’t find documents detailing a clear
strategy with the involvement of ASEAN trading partners in the FTA. However, the ASEAN
efforts to open itself to trade agreements with developed countries in Asia clearly is a step
forward. At the very least, globalization has become a powerful tool in the effort to promote
the ASEAN economies.
China became an important trading partner for Association of Southeast Asian 5 Hadi Soesastro, “Realizing the East Asia Vision”, in Economics Working Paper Series, Februari 2005, p. 3.
Also available on http://www.csis.or.id/working_paper_file/51/wpe090.pdf. 6 Ibid.
6
Nations (ASEAN) since the mid-1990s. ASEAN-China trade has grown more than fivefold
between 1997 until 2005. In 2007, the volume of trade between ASEAN and China has
passed the target of U.S. $ 200 billion. Based on the data obtained in 2006, China ranked fifth
in terms of export destinations of ASEAN and ranked third in terms of imports from the
ASEAN market. In fact, the intensity of exports from ASEAN to China have increased, very
different from the intensity increase among other member countries. 7
Greater integration of China in international trade began to emerge from the receipt
of China's World Trade Organization (WTO) membership in 2001. For the regional level, the
basic increase in the intensity of China's trade does not apart from the efforts to establish the
ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) later in the year 2010 for all ASEAN member
countries. ACFTA would later lead to major restructuring patterns of trade through the
specialization area of manufactured products. It is not separated from the pattern formation in
the past a similar model. China, as the state controlled most of resources, clearly became the
nucleus of commercial activity in this area. This is not a part of the effort China has made a
big leap from the first periphery of the core production network in the period 1995 to 2004. In
the end, in the year that China has managed to become the end point of the economic rise of
Asia.8 With the ACFTA, dynamic changes in trade patterns among the five founding nations
of ASEAN, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines (ASEAN-5). The
existence of ACFTA has successfully reorganized the flow of trade and intra-ASEAN
interaction with other member states as well as with China.
The Framework Agreement on CEC contains three elements: liberalization,
facilitation, and economic cooperation. In addition it has a provision on the mechanism to
implement the Agreement, including a dispute settlement mechanism. The liberalization
element covers trade in goods, trade in services, and investment. In the context of
liberalization, the Agreement provides for special and differential (S&D) treatment and
flexibility to the newer ASEAN members as well as flexibility to address sensitive areas.9
The Framework Agreement contains an Early Harvest program that covers all
products in chapters 01 to 08 at the 8/9 digit level (HS Code): live animals; meat; fish; diary 7 Evelyn Devadason, op.cit.
8 Ibid.
9 Hadi Soesastro, op cit.
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produce; other animals products; live trees; edible vegetables; and edible fruits and nuts.
Products under this program are divided into three categories for tariff reduction and
elimination, but tariffs will have to be brought to zero for all three categories within three
years. However, the program allows for an Exclusion List and different timeframes between
the ASEAN-6 (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) and the
CLMV (new members Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam), for whom zero tariffs
will be reached in 2010. Initially it was thought that China would offer the Early Harvest
program on a non-reciprocal basis, but this turned out not to be the case. Moreover, some
agricultural commodities of great interest to ASEAN, such as rice and palm oil, were
excluded from the program. Some ASEAN countries (e.g. the Philippines) did not
immediately join the program.10
Beyond the Early Harvest, tariff reduction and elimination will be pursued along two
tracks, the normal track and the sensitive track. Applied MFN tariffs of products listed in the
normal track should be gradually reduced or eliminated in accordance with specified
schedules and rates over a period from 1 January 2005 to 2010 for ASEAN-6 and China, and
over a period from 1 January 2005 to 2015 for CLMV. Reduction of tariffs of products in the
Sensitive List will be in accordance with mutually agreed end rates and end dates. The
number of products in the Sensitive List is subject to a maximum ceiling, also to be mutually
agreed upon.11
The Framework Agreement was amended on 6 October 2003. The Protocol of
amendment incorporated the Rules of Origin (ROO) applicable to the products covered under
the Early Harvest program. It also included subsequent Early Harvest agreements between
some ASEAN members and China, and it clarified the implementation of the provision of the
program as well as the terms and conditions for the acceleration of the tariff reduction and
elimination through bilateral or multilateral agreements.
The negotiation on the FTA for goods (beyond the Early Harvest) was to be
concluded by 30 June 2004. This was a rather ambitious timeframe, and indeed, the deadline
was missed. The parties could not agree on the maximum number of tariff lines in the
10
Ibid. 11
Ibid.
8
sensitive list. However, as political leaders were determined to begin the process of tariff
reduction and elimination on 1 January 2005, a compromise was struck, and Ministers were
able to sign an agreement at the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane in November 2004. This does
suggest the importance of setting target dates. The Agreement on Trade in Goods of the
Framework Agreement on CEC, or for short, the ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA), is only the
first portion of a series of agreements to implement the Framework Agreement. At the
Vientiane Summit, Ministers also signed an Agreement on Dispute Settlement Mechanism of
the Framework Agreement on CEC. They will be followed by an agreement on services, an
agreement of investment, and other agreements. It is indeed rather surprising that ASEAN
and China were able to produce those two agreements within a short time. Framework
Agreement ACFTA goals are (a) strengthen and enhance trade cooperation on both sides; (b)
liberalize trade in goods and services through reduction or elimination of tariffs; (c) seek and
develop new areas of economic cooperation are mutually beneficial to both parties; (d)
facilitating economic integration more effectively with the new member countries of ASEAN
and bridge the existing gap on both sides.12
There are other factors that support the
immediate implementation of ACFTA.13
Trade volume between China and ASEAN increased
from US$105.9 billion in 2004 to US$202.5 billion in 2007, attaining the target of US$200
billion set by leaders of the two sides three years ahead of schedule. In the first 10 months of
2008, trade volume between China and ASEAN reached US$199.1 billion, up 21.6 percent.14
It is fact that the main drivers of ACFTA implementation in East Asia and Southeast Asia.
2.2. The Supply Side of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA)
China as the economic power within region in fact has succeeded in offering an
economic stability to the rest of ASEAN countries under the idea of ACFTA emergence.
China’s attempt to provide this form of stability through free trade, in fact, has pulled
ASEAN countries attention in making such agreement. As a big country with big economy 12
Subdit Kerjasama Dit Pemasaran Internasional, “Perkembangan Implementasi ASEAN-China Free Trade
Area (ACFTA)”. http://agribisnis.net/index.php?files=Berita_Detail&id=192, accessed on November 24, 2009
03:04 AM. 13
“Mendag Ajak Inventarisir Masalah FTA ASEAN-China”. http://www.indonesia.go.id/id/index.php?
option=com_content&task=view&id=10709&Itemid=825, accessed on November 24, 2009, 03:40 AM. 14
“China-ASEAN FTA to be Completed in 2010, ASEAN Envoy”, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/
china/2009-01/16/content_7403667.htm, accessed on November 24, 2009 at 03:55 AM.
9
growth, and also given the fact that China is so far the most economically stable country,
China is seen as a country who could offer stability in Southeast Asian region.
2.3. The Demand Side of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area
2.3.1. ACFTA Agreement
The main idea of the economic cooperation between ASEAN countries and China
once established in 2003 when both parties agreed to implement EHP, a reduction in
unfinished agricultural products and selected goods. In 2004, both countries then agreed in
providing a reduction and elimination commitment through ACFTA framework on all other
products, excluding products that are already regulated on former agreement. ACFTA also
regulated the basic idea of the dispute settlement mechanism between parties which
furthermore will be discussed one year after the agreement come into force in July 2005.15
ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) agreement basically contains regulations on
three aspects of economy. Those three aspects are trade and investment, though trade has
been the most attractive aspect for ASEAN countries. On ACFTA agreement, there will be
tariff barriers reduction and elimination between China and ASEAN countries which are
divided into Normal Track and Sensitive Track. Normal Track furthermore is divided into two
models which are Normal Track I and Normal Track II, which in the other hand Sensitive
Track is also divided into two models; Sensitive List and High Sensitive List. Basically, the
ASEAN 6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Brunei
Darussalam) and China shall eliminate all the tariff barriers into zero in 2010 while the newer
members (Cambodia, Lao, Myanmar and Vietnam) shall eliminate in 2015.
Normal Track I consists of regulation of tariff reduction in accordance with the following
threshold. First, each party shall reduce to 0-5% not later than 1 July 2005 the tariff rates for
at least 40% of its tariff lines placed in the Normal Track. Second, each party shall reduce to
0-5% not later than 1 January 2007 the tariff rates for at least 60% of its tariff lines placed in
the Normal Track. And last, each party shall eliminate its entire tariff for tariff lines placed in