Asce tdi-2016-01-10-aging-and-failing-critcal-infrastructure-nre

National Protection and Programs DirectorateDepartment of Homeland Security

Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis

January 2016

National Risk Estimate:Aging and Failing Critical Infrastructure Systems

Key Takeaways

It’s not just about age; older infrastructure is often in better condition than newer infrastructure due to design choices, maintenance and repairs, and other factors

But, investment is often insufficient, both upfront and for maintenance and repairs

So, we need to address the funding gap, and encourage long-term planning and risk mitigation

And, investments should be cost-effective and efficient

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Overview

Background Findings

– How Infrastructure Fails– Market, Regulatory, and Policy Factors

Opportunities

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Strengthen the security and resilience of the Nation’s critical infrastructure through innovative cyber and physical analysis

OCIA Vision

Inform the decisions that protect the Nation’s critical infrastructureOCIA Mission

Background: OCIA

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Background: Purpose and Scope

Audience– Primarily for Federal, State, and local decisionmakers

Goals– Provide an understanding of common causes and indicators of failure– Identify market, regulatory, and policy factors that influence infrastructure risk– Propose recommendations for decisionmakers

The NRE focuses on:– Naturally occurring and non-malicious manmade causes of failure– Market, regulatory, and policy factors that influence infrastructure risk

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It’s Not Just About Age: Causes of Failure

Causes of Failure– Material Fatigue– Corrosion– Erosion– Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters– Human Error– System Stress

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Time-Dependent

It’s Not Just About Age: Failure Indicators

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Failure Indicators– Age– Structural Material– Asset Design– Construction Techniques– Amount of Use– Geographic Location

Insufficient Investment: Funding Gaps

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Projected Investment Gaps as a Percentage of Total Needs in the Years 2020 and 2040

Image courtesy of ASCE

Insufficient Investment: Funding Mechanisms

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Bonds Grant and Loan Programs Taxes User Fees Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)

Insufficient Investment: Decisionmaking

Upfront Costs Cost-Benefit Analysis Deferred Replacement Externalities New Legislation and Regulations Short-Term Funding Plans Environmental Considerations

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Opportunities: Addressing the Funding Gap

Renew and Update Legislation and Regulations– Some Federal and State legislation and regulations expire or need to be

updated to account for inflation and other trends

Adopt and Encourage Loan Programs and Innovative Financing– Grants, loans, tax breaks, bonds, etc.– Innovative user fees– PPPs

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Opportunities: Encouraging Long-term Planning

Incentivize Risk Mitigation– Encourage maintenance and investment in risk mitigation– Remove disincentives to investment

Long-Term Budgets– Encourage long-term budgets that decrease uncertainty for infrastructure

owners

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Opportunities: Investing Efficiently

Improve and Enhance Collaboration– Interdependencies exist at national, regional, and local levels, within and across

sectors

Infrastructure Banks– Infrastructure banks can efficiently fund the most cost-effective projects

Conduct Further Analysis– Technical analysis – Policy analysis– City, State, and regional comparative analysis

Enhance Data Collection and Management– The breadth of ownership makes data collection and management difficult

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For more information visit:www.dhs.gov/office-cyber-infrastructure-analysis

[email protected]