As Slower Economic Growth Narnolia Securities Limited Recommended Buy Stock of Bank of India

8/13/2019 As Slower Economic Growth Narnolia Securities Limited Recommended Buy Stock of Bank of India

1/20

BANK OF INDIA : "BUY" 18th Dec 2013

Bank of India is trading at 0.5 times of one year forward book which is the lowest in valuation band despite of performing better than

expectation largely due to lower CAR and slower economic growth. With the capital infusion to the tune of Rs.1000 cr and improving sign o

asset quality would re-rate the stock as it did previously in our view. The management guided fresh slippage in line with 2QFY and inch up

higher restructure asset for December quarter. We believe that current level is attractive entry point for the investor with time horizon more

than one year with price target of Rs.235.................................... ( Page : 2- 4)

email: [email protected], website : www.narnolia.com

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

402, 4th floor 7/1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph 033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000

LR VOLUME UPDATE : NOVEMBER 2013 16th Dec 2013

JLR wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Motors come up with November 2013 volume, the company for the month sold 37403 units up by 25%

YoY. This total volume of JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover. This monthsperformance in particular is marked b

stellar performance by Jaguar .................................................... ( Page : 12)

IEA-Equity

Strategy

18th Dec, 2013

LUPIN : "Optimistic Guidance " "BUY" 11th Dec 2013

The management of the company in its latest interaction said that company is confident of logging 15-20 % CAGR in US and India in the days to

come on the back of rich pipeline as well as acquisition based strategy . ( Page : 18-19)

COAL INDIA : "BUY" 12th Dec 2013

We expect modest increase in sales volumes growth during FY2013-15 on account of poor offtake capabilities of CIL. Also, we expect CIL

margins to decline during FY2014 due to lower e-auction realizations and higher staff costs/other expenses.News flows related to further

divestment in CIL by the government is likely to keep the stock price under pressure in our view. we recommend Buy rating on the stock with

our previous target price Rs.350............................................ ( Page : 15-17)

Persistent System :"Persistently innovating.." "BUY" 13th Dec 2013

With the potential revenue growth, strong deal pipeline and multi-year relationships with marquee clientele in the Infrastructure vertical, we

upgrade this stock and expect for better earning visibility across niche IT players.we rate BUYon the stock and we revise our target price from

Rs 890to Rs 960. At a CMP of Rs 876, stock trades at 13.8x FY14E earnings........................ ( Page : 13-14)

UCO BANK : "BUY" 17th Dec 2013

We have the reduce the target price of UCO bank from Rs.94 to Rs. 84 on account of banksunlikely to get benefit of western sanction againsIran. Late last month US and six other major powers have imposed sanction against Iran for its nuclear deal. In order to quality for waive

sanction against Iran, India has cut back sharply on purchase of oil from Iran. UCO was the major beneficiary of current account deposits o

India-Iran oil facilities. In our banking sector coverage universe, UCO banks cost of deposits were lowest at 6.1% whereas yield on loan wa

10.1% at the end of 2QFY14. After this development, banksmargin would be impacted and accordingly UCO bank loses the valuation premium

Although banks management is focusing on other area of growth like branch expansion and customer acquisition. We slightly tweak our

earnings and reduce our book value estimate from Rs.175.5 to Rs.168.8. Now our revised price target for the stock would be Rs.84 which is 0.5

times of FY14E book value................ ( Page : 7-11)

TCS :"Positive commentary" "BUY" 18th Dec 2013

TCS on its management Interview to Media highlighted that; For earning and demand prospect, FY15 will be better than the ongoing fiscal on

account of uptick in client spending in the US and Europe and growth in demand for technologies like cloud, mobility and Big Data.We maintain"

BUY" view on the stock with a target price of Rs 2550. Taking the INR/USD (average value) at Rs60 for FY14E and Rs59.5 for FY15E, We upgrade

EPS from Rs87.4 to Rs90.7 for FY14E and from Rs99.3 to Rs 102.4 for FY15E........................ ( Page : 5-6)

India Equity Analytics


2/20

BANK OF INDIA

206

235-

14

-

1M 1yr YTD

bsolute -14.5 -32.2 -32.2

el.to Nifty -13.7 -37.1 -37.1

Current 1QFY14 4QFY1

omoters 64.1 64.1 64.1

I 13.2 13.6 13.5

I 15.3 15.6 16.3

hers 7.4 6.7 6.0

Financials Rs, Cr

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

NII 7878 8313 9024 12110 11804

Total Income 10519 11635 12790 16672 16366

PPP 5398 6694 7458 9670 9492

Net Profit 2542 2678 2749 3533 3269

EPS 46.5 46.7 47.9 61.6 57.0

2wk Range H/L

Capital infusion by GoI raise CAR ratio to 8.1% from 7.75%

Bank has lower CAR to 7.75% at the end of 2QFY14 according to Basel 3 nor

Now Bank of India has approved to initiate process to raise further capital for iss

of 4.63cr Equity Shares to GoI on Preferential basis at a price of Rs. 215.70 p

share. This capital infusion is taking CAR ratio to 8.1% and government holding ri

to 66.7% from 64.1%. Capital infusion to the tune of Rs.1000 cr diluting ourFY14

book value by 40 bps.

As far as restructure loan are concern,bankstotal restructure loan was about 5%

total loan asset and banksmanagement expects Rs.1000-1200 cr of restructure

December quarter. In 2QFY14, bank sold about Rs.370 cr of bad loan to Ass

Reconstruction Company (ARC) for recovery and during quarters its plan to s

about Rs.500 cr of bad loan to ARC.

Sequentially improving PCR provide cushion on stress asset

Despite of stable asset quality and lower slippage, Bank of India provided 24% mo

provision in sequential basis which improved its provision coverage ratio(Witho

technical write off) to 63.3% from 61% in preceding quarter same year. High

provision would provide cushion on stress asset without hurting profit going further.

6139

kt Capital (Rs Cr)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

ock Performance

arget Price

Despite of improv ing fund amental from past two quarters, Bank of India

tradi ng at 0.5 tim es of on e year forw ard boo k whi ch is the lowes t level in o

valuat ion param eters. We believe that current level is attract ive entry poi nt fthe investor wi th t ime horizon more than one year. With the capital infusion

Rs.1000 cr by GoI and imp rov ing sig n of asset quality wo uld re-rate the sto c

in our view as i t p reviously w itnessed i .e. 0.8 to 1.2 t imes of book. Th

manag ement has guid ed fresh slippage of about Rs.1500 cr and restructu re

to the tun e of Rs.1000-1200 cr in 3QFY14 wh ich i s in line wit h 2QFY14. W

recomm end buy with pr ice target of Rs. 235

hange from Previous

ANKINDIA Vs Nifty

hare Holding Pattern-%

2271804

fty

SE Symbol BANKINDIA

Most of banks especially PSUs are beaten down by the market on account of slow

economic growth and stress in asset quality. But Bank of India has witness

improvement in asset quality in 2QFY14 as fresh slippages were down by 26sequentially and 46% Year-on-year basis. Moreover bank reported reduction to t

tune of Rs.1009 cr versus Rs.1338 cr in 1QFY14. Most of reduction was due

higher recovery and up-gradation rather than write-off. Write-off came down sharp

from Rs.598 cr 1QFY14 to Rs.120 cr in 2QFY14.

ompany Update BUY

MP

Inch up restructure guidance in 3QFY14

Shown Improving sign of asset quality with higher recovery and up-gradati

rather than write-off

verage Daily Volume

12260

evious Target Price

arket Data

pside

393/126

SE Code 532149

"BUY"18th Dec, 2013



3/20

BANK OF INDIA



arterly Result 2QFY14 1QFY14 2QFY13 % YoY Gr % QoQ Gr

erest/discount on advances / bills 6631 6190 5881 12.8 7.1

ome on investments 2129 1885 1835 16.0 12.9

erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 479 465 289 65.6 2.9

hers 0 0 0 42.9 36.4tal Interest Income 9239 8541 8005 15.4 8.2

hers Income 1100 1181 894 23.1 -6.8

tal Income 10340 9722 8900 16.2 6.4

erest on deposits 5966 5401 5154 15.8 10.5

erest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 414 296 536 -22.8 40.0

hers 333 308 119 179.8 8.2

erest Expended 6712 6004 5810 15.5 11.8

2527 2537 2196 15.1 -0.4

her Income 1100 1181 894 23.1 -6.8

tal Income 3627 3718 3090 17.4 -2.4

ployee 897 963 700 28.2 -6.8

her Expenses 628 575 536 17.1 9.3

erating Expenses 1525 1537 1236 23.4 -0.8

P( Rs Cr) 2102 2180 1854 13.4 -3.6

ovisions 1232 695 1552 -20.6 77.4

t Profit 622 964 302 106.0 -35.5

ance Sheet Data

uity Capital 597 575 575 3.9 3.9

serve & Surplus 25,686 21,774 21,774 18.0 18.0

posits 432,282 332,695 332,695 29.9 29.9

rrowings 41,751 29,434 29,434 41.8 41.8

her liabilities and provisions 12,727 11,262 11,262 13.0 13.0

tal Liability 513,042 395,739 395,739 29.6 29.6

sh in hand 24,621 17,080 17,080 44.2 44.2

sh and balances with reserve bank of india 34,658 19,198 19,198 80.5 80.5

estment 107,413 90,147 90,147 19.2 19.2

vance 332,190 256,148 256,148 29.7 29.7

ed Assets 2,957 2,839 2,839 4.2 4.2

hers Assets 11,203 10,327 10,327 8.5 8.5

tal Assets 513,042 395,739 395,739 29.6 29.6

set Quality

PA 9873 8765 8898 11.0 12.6

A 6156 5947.3 5,228 17.7 3.5

PA(%) 3.0 3.0 3.4A(%) 1.9 2.0 2.0

R(%) Without technical write off 37.6 32.1 41.2


4/20

BANK OF INDIA

Source: Eastwind/Company



nancials & Assuption 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

erest/discount on advances / bills 15570 20241 23139 29515 31171

come on investments 5195 7142 7261 8828 10152

erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 798 834 1257 1889 1889

hers 295 264 251 1 1tal Interest Income 21858 28481 31909 40233 43213

hers Income 2642 3321 3766 4562 4562

tal Income 24500 31802 35675 44795 47775

erest on deposits 12218 17957 20238 25422 28709

erest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 813 1145 1489 1419 1419

hers 950 1065 1158 1281 1281

erest Expended 13981 20167 22885 28123 31410

7878 8313 9024 12110 11804

her Income 2642 3321 3766 4562 4562

tal Income 10519 11635 12790 16672 16366

mployee 3492 3069 3131 4131 4055

her Expenses 1629 1871 2201 3965 3892erating Expenses 5121 4941 5332 7002 6874

P( Rs Cr) 5398 6694 7458 9670 9492

ovisions 2909 4016 4709 5254 5406

t Profit 2542 2678 2749 3533 3269

46.0 5.3 2.7 28.5 -7.5

y Balance Sheet Data

posits 299559 318216 381840 434075 503527

posits Growth(%) 30 6 20 14 16

rrowings 22021 32114 35368 36854 37953

rrowings Growth(%) -2 46 10 4 3

an 213708 248833 289367 347241 366720

an Growth(%) 26 16 16 20 6

vestment 86677 86754 94613 110351 126904

vestment Growth(%) 27 0 9 17 15

stwind Calculation

ld on Advances 7.3 8.1 8.0 8.5 8.5

ld on Investments 6.3 8.7 7.1 8.0 8.0

ld on Funds 6.5 7.8 7.7 8.4 8.4

st of deposits 4.1 5.6 5.2 5.7 5.6

st of Borrowings 8.0 6.9 6.8 7.5 7.5

st of fund 4.3 5.8 5.3 6.5 6.2

aluation

ok Value 322.7 365.3 416.9 469.4 510.4

BV 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4

E 10.3 7.7 6.3 3.8 4.1


5/20

TCS

1M 1yr YTD

solute 16.6 71.8 72

l. to Nifty 12.3 64.7 64.3


omoters 73.96 73.96 73.96

16.14 16.14 14.96

5.44 5.44 6.45

hers 4.46 4.46 4.63

Financials

2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 20977.24 17987.07 16.6 15621.03 34.3

EBITDA 6632.95 5144.12 28.9 4438.39 49.4

PAT 4633.33 3839.5 20.7 3434.65 34.9

EBITDA Margin 31.6% 28.6% 300bps 28.4% 320bp

PAT Margin 22.1% 21.3% 80bps 22.0% 10bps

fty 6139

ock Performance

year forward P/E

Rs, Cro


View and Valuation:We continue to remain positive on demand outlook and marg

profile. We continue to be positive on demand environment and companysstrength

efficient deal execution. We advise that TCS now seem to be trading ahead

fundamentals; At a price of Rs 2047, it is trading at 22.6x FY14E earnings, We mainta

BUY" view on the stock with a target price of Rs 2550. Taking the INR/USD (avera

value) at Rs60 for FY14E and Rs59.5 for FY15E, We upgrade EPS from Rs87.4 to Rs90

for FY14E and from Rs99.3 to Rs 102.4 for FY15E. For FY14E and FY15E, we expect 17

and 20% revenue growth in USD term and retain positive stance as outperforman

continues.

are Holding Pattern-%

ompany update Buy TCS on i ts managem ent Interview to Media high l ighted that

evious Target Price 2160

side 25%

For earning and demand prospect, FY15 will be better than the ongoing fiscal

account of uptick in client spending in the US and Europe and growth in demand f

technologies like cloud, mobility and Big Data.

For next 3-5 years, momentum picking for social, mobile, analytics and cloud (SMA

technologies could offer a "multi-billion dollar opportunity" in revenues for t

company.

2258/1198

kt Capital (Rs Crores) 400775

Confident on IT spending:Despite furloughs impact, it remains confident of growth

the medium term as clients were heading into their CY2014E budgeting cycle in a mo

confident position than in the past 2-3 yrs. Broadly US and Europe region will play a k

role for better demand enviromnment ahead, however domestic market could be outrace due to upcoming election.

We continue to believe that TCS will be star performer in growth sense than oth

peers. Hence, we are maintaining 17% revenue growth in dollar term for FY1

because of improved demand environment, while NASSCOM expects 12-14% for t

Industry. We continue to be positive on demand prospect for TCS.

"Positive commentary"

MP 2047

rget Price 2550

ange from Previous 18%

arket Data

E Code 532540

On the hiring front, TCS will hire about 25,000 college graduates who will join t

firm in the next fiscal. Besides, the firm will also be hiring across geographies like t

US and Europe to keep up with demand for services. During current fiscal year, TCS h

recruited 45000 head counts so far.

Marginal Revenue growth impacted by seasonality:TCS management has indicat

that 3rd quarter, FY14E will be slightly impacted by broad bases furloughs acroIndustries and thin project based services. Revenue will be impacted mainly

developed market like US and Europe region. We expect that revenue growth could

seen at 3-3.5% for 3QFY14E.

TCS Q3 analyst br ief ing key takeaways; Adversely imp acted by seasonal i ty b

noth ing u nexpected,

Persistent Margin picture: The Company expects margins could be broadly stable. T

company would take a decision on reinvestment only after the Rupee stabilizes. W

expect that company could maintain EBITDA margin at 30-31% during the 3rd quarter.

erage Daily Volume 1011877

E Symbol TCS

wk Range H/L

"BUY"18th Dec' 13



6/20


uarterly snapshot

TCS.

(Source: Company/Eastwi

nancials


s, Cr FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15

et Sales-USD 6339 8187 10171 11569 13507.44 16202.

et Sales 30029.0 37325.1 48894.3 62989.5 81044.64 96404.

mployee Cost 10879.6 13850.5 18571.9 24040.0 30796.96 37115.

verseas business expenses 4570.1 5497.7 6800.5 8701.9 10941.03 13978.

ervices rendered by business associates and others 1262.0 1743.7 2391.3 3763.7 4862.68 6748.3

peration and other expenses 4622.8 5054.3 6694.8 8443.9 10130.58 12532.

otal Expenses 21334.4 26146.2 34458.5 44949.6 56731.25 70375.

BITDA 8694.6 11178.9 14435.8 18040.0 24313.39 26029.epreciation 601.8 686.2 860.9 1016.3 1268.47 1508.8

mortisation 59.1 49.1 57.1 63.7 57.54 76.73

ther Income 272.0 604.0 428.2 1178.2 405.22 1928.0

BIT 8033.7 10443.6 13517.9 16960.1 23044.92 24520.

terest Cost 16.1 26.5 22.2 48.5 48.53 48.53

BT 8289.6 11021.2 13923.8 18089.8 23401.61 26399.

ax 1197.0 1830.8 3399.9 4014.0 5616.4 6336.

AT 7092.7 9190.3 10524.0 14075.7 17785.2 20063

AT ((Reported PAT)) 7000.6 9068.6 10414.0 13917.4 17785.2 20063

rowth-%

ales-USD 29.2% 24.2% 13.7% 16.8% 20.0%

ales 8.0% 24.3% 31.0% 28.8% 28.7% 19.0%

BITDA 21.3% 28.6% 29.1% 25.0% 34.8% 7.1%

AT 31.8% 29.6% 14.5% 33.7% 26.4% 12.8%argin -%

BITDA 29.0% 30.0% 29.5% 28.6% 30.0% 27.0%

BIT 26.8% 28.0% 27.6% 26.9% 28.4% 25.4%

AT 23.6% 24.6% 21.5% 22.3% 21.9% 20.8%

xpenses on Sales-%

mployee Cost 36.2% 37.1% 38.0% 38.2% 38.0% 38.5%

verseas business expenses 15.2% 14.7% 13.9% 13.8% 13.5% 14.5%

ervices rendered by business associates and others 4.2% 4.7% 4.9% 6.0% 6.0% 7.0%

peration and other expenses 15.4% 13.5% 13.7% 13.4% 12.5% 13.0%

ax rate 14.4% 16.6% 24.4% 22.2% 24.0% 24.0%

aluation

MP 780.8 1182.5 1322.0 1563.0 2047.0 2047.

o of Share 195.7 195.7 195.7 196.0 196.0 196.0

W 18466.7 24504.8 29579.2 38645.7 49103.5 60901

PS 36.2 47.0 53.8 71.8 90.7 102.4

VPS 94.4 125.2 151.1 197.2 250.5 310.7

oE-% 38.4% 37.5% 35.6% 36.4% 36.2% 32.9%

viden Payout ratio 28.1% 50.8% 37.5% 41.2% 41.2% 41.2%

/BV 8.3 9.4 8.7 7.9 8.2 6.6

/E 21.5 25.2 24.6 21.8 22.6 20.0

trly, 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY1

olume Growth 6.3% 3.2% 3.3% 5.3% 5.0% 1.3% 4.4% 6.1% 7.30%

ales Growth, USD Term 4.7% 2.4% 2.4% 3.0% 4.6% 3.3% 3.1% 4.1% 5.4%

ales Growth, INR Term 7.7% 13.5% 0.4% 12.1% 5.1% 2.9% 2.2% 9.5% 16.6%

AT Growth, INR Term -5% 36% -7% 14% 4% 3% 2% 6% 21%

BITDA Margin 29.1% 31.0% 29.6% 29.1% 28.4% 29.0% 28.1% 28.6% 31.6%

AT Margin 19.8% 23.8% 22.0% 22.3% 22.0% 22.1% 22.0% 21.3% 22.1%


7/20


8/20

urrent deposits grew almost double led CASA improvement

UCO BANK

gher earnings on account of robust growth in NII, lower CI ratio and flat

ovisions

et profit during the quarter registered growth of 286% YoY to Rs.400 cr largely due to

gher NII growth, lower cost income ratio and lower provision on account of stable asset

uality. Consequentially ROE and ROA improved to 17.4% and 0.88% from 4.5% and4% in 2QFY13 respectively.

n balance sheet growth front, banks deposits grew by 16% YoY to Rs.1888 bn

pported by current account deposits growth of 173% YoY and 12% rise in saving

eposits. CASA deposits registered the growth of 56% YoY to Rs.60096 cr. In

ercentage of total advances, CASA stood at 31.8% from 23.7% in 2QFY13. Growth in

rrent deposits was on account of providing facilities to Indo Iran trade payments which

presently covering 45% of oil imports from Iran and India export. Going forward 100%

oil import from Iran is to be covered and further fertilizer import from Iran is also being

nsidered by Government. This facilities will generated almost about 17000-18000 cr aser management. Loan grew by 15% YoY to Rs.1352 bn.

argin improved due to higher declined of cost of deposits than loan yield

et interest margin of the bank improved by 11 bps YoY to 2.84% from 2.73% in 1QFY14

ue to 22% YoY declined cost of deposits to 6.09% from 7.44% in 2QFY13. Lower cost

as account of higher growth in low cost current deposits. Yield on loan (EW calculated)

r the quarter stood at 10.1% from 10.1% in 1QFY14 and 10.9% in 2QFY13.

anagement expects NIM of 3% at the end of year end on the back of current deposits

pport.

aluation & View

e have the reduce the target price of UCO bank from Rs.94 to Rs. 84 on account of

anksunlikely to get benefit of western sanction against Iran. Late last month US and six

her major powers have imposed sanction against Iran for its nuclear deal. In order to

uality for waiver sanction against Iran, India has cut back sharply on purchase of oil from

an. UCO was the major beneficiary of current account deposits of India-Iran oil facilities.

our banking sector coverage universe, UCO bankscost of deposits were lowest at

1% whereas yield on loan was 10.1% at the end of 2QFY14. After this development,

anks margin would be impacted and accordingly UCO bank loses the valuation

emium. Although banksmanagement is focusing on other area of growth like branch

xpansion and customer acquisition. We slightly tweak our earnings and reduce our book

lue estimate from Rs.175.5 to Rs.168.8. Now our revised price target for the stock

ould be Rs.84 which is 0.5 times of FY14E book value.




9/20

UCO BANK

undamental through graph

Source:Eastwind/Company




10/20

UCO BANK



uarterly Result 2QFY14 1QFY14 2QFY13 % YoY % QoQ

erest/discount on advances / bills 3396 3152 3230 5.1 7.7

come on investments 1026 968 897 14.4 5.9

erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 8 37 32 -73.7 -77.3

hers 14 49 37 -61.9 -71.6tal Interest Income 4444 4207 4196 5.9 5.6

hers Income 209 462 213 -1.6 -54.7

tal Income 4653 4669 4409 5.6 -0.3

erest Expended 2875 2843 3183 -9.7 1.1

1569 1364 1013 54.9 15.1

her Income 209 462 213 -1.6 -54.7

tal Income 1779 1826 1226 45.1 -2.6

mployee 382 376 332 15.2 1.6

her Expenses 230 185 180 27.7 24.2

erating Expenses 612 562 512 19.6 9.1

P( Rs Cr) 1166 1264 714 63.4 -7.8

ovisions 759 741 597 27.1 2.3

T 408 523 116 249.9 -22.1

x 7 12 13 -42.5 -39.0

t Profit 400 511 104 285.9 -21.7

lance Sheet

uity Capital 2576 2576 2488 3.5 0.0

serve & Surplus 8195 7719 6644 23.3 6.2

t Worth 10770 10295 9132 17.9 4.6

posits 188779 177050 162567 16.1 6.6

rrowings 6605 6462 6601 0.1 2.2

her Liabilities & Provisions 6262 6566 4773 31.2 -4.6

tal Liabilities 212416 200373 183073 16.0 6.0

sh & Balance with Bank 7081 7600 7585 -6.6 -6.8

lance with bank & money at call 8045 8218 1957 311.1 -2.1

vestments 55193 52999 49589 11.3 4.1

vances 135233 125141 118045 14.6 8.1

ed Assets 977 926 815 19.9 5.5

her Assets 5887 5489 5082 15.8 7.2

tal Assets 212416 200373 183073 16.0 6.0

set Quality

NPA 7,376 7,178 5,888 25.3 2.8

A 4228 3939 3468 21.9 7.3

GNPA 5.3 5.7 5.0

NPA 3.1 3.1 2.9PCR(Without technical writeoff) 46.6 45.1 41.1


11/20

UCO BANK

Source: Company/Eastwind



ncome Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

terest Income 11371 14632 16752 20313 24333

terest Expense 7526 10730 12170 15592 18800

II 3845 3902 4582 4721 5533

hange (%) 65.4 1.5 17.4 3.0 17.2

on Interest Income 925 966 952 1342 1342

otal Income 4770 4868 5534 6063 6875

hange (%) 45.0 2.0 13.7 9.6 13.4

perating Expenses 2075 2056 2177 1880 2131

re Provision Profits 2695 2811 3357 4184 4744

hange (%) 58.0 4.3 19.4 24.6 13.4

rovisions 1788 1661 2710 2596 2548

BT 907 1150 647 1588 2196

AT 907 1109 618 1573 1977

hange (%) -10.4 22.3 -44.2 154.5 25.6

alance Sheet

eposits( Rs Cr) 99071 115540 128283 153939 184727

hange (%) 17 11 20 20

f which CASA Dep 32031 34403 55733 67707 81249

hange (%) 6 7 62 21 20

orrowings( Rs Cr) 5475 12901 9492 12315 14777

vestments( Rs Cr) 42927 45771 52245 62692 75231

oans( Rs Cr) 99071 115540 128283 153939 184727

hange (%) 20 17 11 20 20

atio

vg. Yield on loans 8.6 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.0

vg. Yield on Investments 6.6 7.1 7.1 7.5 7.5

vg. Cost of Deposit 4.7 6.5 6.6 7.0 7.1

vg. Cost of Borrowimgs 12.5 6.1 7.0 6.0 6.0

aluation

ook Value 135 137 146 169 183

MP 107 79 50.1 74.55 74.55/BV 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4


12/20

JLR VOLUME UPDATE : NOVEMBER 2013

The performance of JLR on Geography Wise has been Tabulated as under :

The various models under JLR portfolio have grown well for the company however Jag

XJmodel has done exceptionally well .The company has sold 6244 units of Jaguar for t

Nov2013.The Land Rover is also growing good for the company. The Range Rover Evoque h

grown by 10% YoY to 10953 units for the month.

The Table shows the Performance of Jaguar Portfolio : Model Wise.

Strong Performance For The Month.

The volumes for JLR across geographies came relatively, good all the geographies ha

done well except for UK where volume de grew by 1%YoY. The markets of china continu

to do well for the company. The Chinese market have grown over 40% YoY for the J

followed by ROW markets.

Earlier management said that company would invest 1.5 billion pounds for new technica

advanced aluminum vehicle architecture in forthcoming models. The first new model

utilize this innovative architecture will be an all-new mid-sized sports sedan from Jagu

The product will be launched by 2015.


JLR wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Motors come up with November 2013 volume, t

company for the month sold 37403 units up by 25% YoY. This total volume of JLR includ

6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover. This monthsperformance in particula

marked by stellar performance by Jaguar with volume growth of almost 55 % YoY while tLand Rover portfolio has grown by 20 % YoY.The new F type Jaguar is getting go

response.Company manage to sell 557 units of F-Type this month.


The Table shows the Performance of Land Rover Portfolio : Model Wise.



We continue to like Tata Motors, led by strong volume traction at JLR to continue over t

coming months as new Range Rover Sport get rolled out across more geographies,

addition to continued traction from RR and F-Type, which in turn will boost realisation a

margin.


Model Nov-13 Nov-12 Change % (YoY)

UK 5231 5276 -1%

North America 6657 4843 37%

Europe 7300 6829 7%

China 9751 6879 42%Asia Pacific 1882 1428 32%

All other markets 6582 4638 42%

Monthly Performance of JLR : Geography Wise


Defender 1615 1274 27%

Freelander 4124 4517 -9%

Discovery 3424 3683 -7%

New Range Rover Sport 6833 0 NA

Range Rover Sport 106 4909 NA

Range Rover 2 1417 NA

Range Rover Evoque 10953 9919 10%

New Range Rover 4102 143 NA

Monthly Performance of Land Rover: Model Wise


XF 3825 2743 39%

XJ 1628 1004 62%

XK 234 284 -18%

F-TYPE 557 NA

Monthly Performance of Jaguar : Model Wise


13/20

Persistent System.

BUY

8%

1M 1yr YTD

bsolute 7.5 83.5 126.6

l. to Nifty 4.9 77.8 107.9


omoters 38.96 38.96 38.96

15.28 14.84 12.39

I 21.23 19.31 21.59

hers 24.53 26.89 27.06

Financials


Revenue 432.37 357.29 21.0 326.86 32.3

EBITDA 100.8 76.8 31.3 89.06 13.2

PAT 60.8 57.1 6.5 44.71 36.0

EBITDA Margin 23.3% 21.5% 180bps 27.2% (390bp

PAT Margin 14.1% 16.0% (190bps) 13.7% 40bps

wk Range H/L 906/477

arket Data

E Code 533179

SE Symbol

ange from Previous

evious Target Price 890

pside 10%

"Persistently innovating.."

ompany update

MP 876

rget Price 960

Persistent Sytems management remains confident of FY14 with deal pipeline bei

strong and remains focused on increasing the share of IP-led revenues in its portfol

The management expects to see more than 15% dollar revenue growth, more th

NASSCOM guidance of 12-14 % for FY14E.

PERSISTENT


3505

erage Daily Volume 12139

kt Capital (Rs Crores)

fty


6237

ock Performance

year forward P/E-x

Rs, Cro


View and Valuation:The companysfocus is shifting greater proportion to IP led servic

and company has marquee clientele in cutting-edge technologies around clou

mobility, collaboration and analytics; witnessing faster growth. Considering t

companysability to achieve scale and growth, we rate BUYon the stock and we rev

our target price from Rs 890 to Rs 960. At a CMP of Rs 876, stock trades at 13.8x FY14

earnings.

Persistent's management suggests that deal pipeline are looking strong and seegood activity and traction in the market across the board. Its focus on some of new

technologies like cloud, analytics and mobility are gaining a lot of traction because

pickup in demand environment. The emerging themes, (CAMB) Cloud, Analyti

Mobility, and Big data could also see strong demand traction ahead. Because

actively investment in these themes, management is very confident to see healt

growth and also they expressed their confidence to beat the NASSCOM guidance (1

14% revenue growth for FY14E).

With the potential revenue growth, strong deal pipeline and multi-year relationsh

with marquee clientele in the Infrastructure vertical, we upgrade this stock and expe

for better earning visibility across niche IT players.

Recently , Persistent System reported superlative set of numbers during the 2QFY

with 21%(QoQ) sales growth in INR term and 8.6%(QoQ) growth in USD term led

38%(QOQ) growth on the intellectual property (IP) revenues. PAT growth was at 6.5

(QoQ).

Margin ramp up:During the quarter, Its EBITDA margin improved by 180bps to 23.3

positively impacted by currency gain(270bps), while during the quarter company wa

hike to its off shore employee at a range of 8-9% was impacted margin by 310 badversely. However, management expects to maintain margin at a range of 24-25% f

FY14E.

On segmental front: The Companys cash cow segment Infrastructure and Syste

which contributes 69% on sales, grew by 21% and life science (13% contribution

sales) was up by 57% sequentially. While, Telecom space (17.6% contribution on sale

increased marginally by 3% (QoQ).

Clients Metrics: During the quarter, company added 2 clients at 32 under mediu

category( >$1mn to $3mn) and 1 client at 16 from large ( > $ 3Mn) . Revenue from top

client was improved from 21.2% (1QFY14) to 22.5% . DSO at 62days, almost

quarters low.

"BUY"13th Dec' 13



14/20

Persistent S stem.


perating Metrics

nancials



2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY13 1QFY13 QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY1

op1 16.0% 15.9% 17.2% 17.8% 20.7% 21.1% 21.6% 21.2% 22.5%

op 5 38.6% 37.0% 36.6% 33.5% 36.3% 37.3% 36.7% 34.7% 36.4%

op 10 49.4% 48.3% 48.8% 45.3% 47.0% 49.4% 47.9% 46.0% 47.3%

nsite - Linear 12665 12387 12603 12789 12863 12772 14014 14567 1428

ffshore - Linear 3803 3778 3895 3898 3978 4032 4143 4111 4109

eild per Employee(excld- Trainee) 3208 3247 3350 3345 3746 3817 3769 3602 3919

otal Employee 6900 6706 6628 6536 6370 6719 6970 7144 7457

ttrition 17.7% 17.4% 18.3% 18.9% 16.9% 16.0% 14.4% 14.2% 14.0%

tilization rate %(xclude IP Led ) 73.8% 74.1% 71.7% 74.1% 75.2% 77.3% 72.5% 70.0% 71.7%

lling Rate-USD/ppm

mployee Metrics

ient Concentration

s in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

ales 601.16 775.84 1000.3 1294.5 1657.54 2053.93

mployee Cost 368.74 481.62 599.05 719 895.07 1119.39

ost of technical professionals 0 30.67 41.68 54 82.88 102.70

ther expenses 86.05 105.24 135.2 218 290.07 379.98

otal expenses 454.79 617.53 775.93 990.78 1268.02 1602.06

BITDA 146.37 158.31 224.37 303.72 389.52 451.86

epreciation 33.52 42.39 61.1 78 93.54 84.18

ther Income 11.23 34.44 34.44 34.44 66.30 71.89

BIT 112.85 115.92 163.27 225.44 295.98 367.68

nterest Cost 0 0 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00

rofit (+)/Loss (-) Before Taxes 124.08 150.36 197.71 259.851 362.29 439.57

rovision for Taxes 9.05 10.62 55.09 75.37 108.69 131.87

et Profit (+)/Loss (-) 115.03 139.74 142.62 184.481 253.60 307.70

rowth-% (YoY)ales 1.2% 29.1% 28.9% 29.4% 28.0% 23.9%

BITDA 60.2% 8.2% 41.7% 35.4% 28.3% 16.0%

AT 74.1% 21.5% 2.1% 29.4% 37.5% 21.3%

xpenses on Sales-%

mployee Cost 61.3% 62.1% 59.9% 55.5% 54.0% 54.5%

ther expenses 14.3% 13.6% 13.5% 16.9% 17.5% 18.5%

ax rate 7.3% 7.1% 27.9% 29.0% 30.0% 30.0%

Margin-%

BITDA 24.3% 20.4% 22.4% 23.5% 23.5% 22.0%

BIT 18.8% 14.9% 16.3% 17.4% 17.9% 17.9%

AT 19.1% 18.0% 14.3% 14.3% 15.3% 15.0%

aluation:MP 310.0 366.7 409.2 541.0 876.0 876.0

o of Share 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

W 639.0 747.1 840.5 1018.3 1234.4 1504.7

PS 28.8 34.9 35.7 46.1 63.4 76.9

VPS 159.7 186.8 210.1 254.6 308.6 376.2

oE-% 18.0% 18.7% 17.0% 18.1% 20.5% 20.4%

/BV 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.8 2.3

/E 10.8 10.5 11.5 11.7 13.8 11.4


15/20

Coal India LTD.

CCIs Rs 1,773-crore penalty:

289

350

35021%

NA

533278

176226 Coal India to get Rs 2,119 cr extra on coal price revision :

17622

6308

1M 1yr YTD

solute -1.3 -21.2 -21.4

l. to Nifty 2.8 8.8 8.6

2QFY14 1QFY14 4QFY13

omoters 90.0 90.0 90.0

5.5 5.4 5.4

5.3 2.3 2.0

hers 2.2 2.4 2.6

Financials : Q2FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q2FY13 Q1FY1

Net Revenue 15411 5.8 -6.4 14573 1647

EBITDA 2794 -2.4 -29.4 2862 395Depriciation 495 27.8 4.1 387 47

Interest Cost 8 -22.2 7.0 10

Tax 1412 -4.2 -27.9 1475 195

PAT 3052 -0.8 -18.2 3078 373(In Cr

1

The companysnet sales grew 5.8% yoy to 15,411cr (above our estimate of 15,083cr

Sales volumes stood at 109mn ton in 2QFY2014 compared to 102mn ton in 2QFY2013

The blended realizations declined by 1.4% yoy to 1,414/ton (despite price hike) due t

lower realization on FSA coal.Despite 5.8% yoy growth in top-line, EBITDA decreased b

8.2% yoy to 3,176cr due to higher raw material costs (18.1% yoy to 2,251cr) an

contractual expenses (27.6% yoy to 1,394cr). The depreciation expenses increased b

27.8% yoy to 495cr; hence, adjusted net profit was flat yoy at 3,043cr .yr Forward P/B

Coal India 2QFY2014 top-line was above our estimate. The companysnet sales grew

5.8% yoy to 15,411cr. Sales volumes stood at 109mn ton in 2QFY2014 compared t

102mn ton in 2QFY2013. The blended realizations declined by 1.4% yoy to 1,414/to

despite price hikes. Its FSA coalsrealizations were lower than expected due to lowe

grade coal. The company liquidated 11mn ton of old stock.

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research


kt Capital (Rs Crores)

erage Daily Volume (Nos.) Coal India Ltd is likely to get additional revenue of Rs 2,119 cr in this fiscal on account o

revision in dry fuel prices.CIL (Coal India Ltd) has revised and rationalized the basi

notified prices of all the grades of non-coking coal except GI, G2 and G5.The estimateadditional revenue due to revision of basic notified price for the current financial year

Rs 2,119 cr.CIL had revised the prices of all grades of coal, barring three, for all its eigh

producing subsidiaries with effect from May 28 this year. Mahanadi Coalfields which

expected to contribute Rs 686 crore, followed by Rs 664 crore from Northern Coalfield

and Rs 495 crore from South Eastern Coalfields.

fty

ock Performance-%


ompany Update

MP The Competition Commission of India (CCI) imposed a Rs 1,773 cr fine on Coal India, th

country' monopoly commercial coal miner, based on a complaint filed by two powe

companies that India's monopoly producer of coal abused its dominance. Thgovernment owns 90% stake in Coal India, and has traditionally drawn hefty dividen

income from the cash rich coal company. In 2012-13, the company paid a total dividen

of Rs 8,843 cr out of which the government's share was Rs 7,959 cr. A Rs 1800-crore fin

could possibly mean less profits for the company and less dividend income for its owner

But as the main owner, the government, will pocket this amount in the form of a fine,

will not be poorer in any way.

rget Price

evious Target Priceside

ange from Previous

arket Data

E Code

E Symbol COALINDIA


"Buy"12nd Dec' 13



16/20

UTLOOK:

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

431 431 436 452

416 425 433 465

1073 1183 1441 1468

404744 390243 377447 364736

1066 1105 1155 1240

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E

50234 62415 68303 69864

7573 5123 6556 8383

1755 2013 2333 2595

4580 4901 5802 6057

20481 26705 27943 28943

40390 40857 50219 53738

9843 21558 18084 16126

1673 1969 1813 1860

79 54 45 345595 6484 7623 7332

10868 20588 17356 15870

33 51 36 33.1OE

ost Of Projects & Contractual

wer and fuel

ntractual expenses

mployee benefit Expence

penditure

ITDA

epriciation

terest Costx

AT

et Revenue from Operation

PERATING MATRIX

al Production in MT

oal Offtake in MT

venue Generation From unit Ton

vg Man Power (in numbers)

oductivity Per Man

L PERFORMANCE

Coal India LTD.

oal India 2QFY2014 top-line was above our estimate. The companysnet sales grew

8% yoy to 15,411cr. Sales volumes stood at 109mn ton in 2QFY2014 compared to

2mn ton in 2QFY2013. The blended realizations declined by 1.4% yoy to 1,414/ton

spite price hikes. Its FSA coalsrealizations were lower than expected due to lower

ade coal. The company liquidated 11mn ton of old stock.

Lse-auction realizations have declined over the past one year on account of decline

international coal price coupled with weak domestic demand. Going forward, we

pect CILsprofitability to be affected due to lower e-auction realizations, sticky staff

sts and other expenses. Moreover, given the price hike taken during 4QFY2013, we

not expect CIL to undertake any further price hikes in the near-term.

e expect modest increase in sales volumes growth during FY2013-15 on account of

or offtake capabilities of CIL. Also, we expect CILsmargins to decline during FY2014

e to lower e-auction realizations and higher staff costs/other expenses.News flows

ated to further divestment in CIL by the government is likely to keep the stock price

der pressure in our view. we recommend Buy rating on the stock with our previous

rget price Rs.350.



17/20

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

6316 6316 6316 6316

20956 26998 34137 42156

27273 33314 40453 48472

343 1334 1305 10781620 33 0 0

2545 22461 28271 31144

772 645 829 837

1404 12387 15595 20447

5443 8490 9785 12385

0 779 759 712

12035 12065 12681 12754

2211 2057 1848 3496

610 845 1017 1181

4402 5586 6071 5618

2169 3419 5663 10480

39078 45806 58203 62236

8066 11180 13478 16189

17921 21646 24688 25479

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

0.0 5.7 5.5 4.0

0.0 17.3 32.6 27.5

4.9 22.8 29.2 52.7

1.7 4.3 4.3 4.2

1.0 3.7 3.1 2.8

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

10727 12819 16323 15948-131 -3822 3565 -6839

10596 8997 19888 9109

950 697 -10410 -1833

2163 2911 -7382 -7852

13708 12606 2095 -575

Down 21% from its 52week High

Up 14% from its 52 week Low

17

et Cash Flow during year

rading At :

et Cash From Operation

sh From Investment

sh from Finance

ASH FLOWS

sh from Operationanges In Working Capital

editors to Turnover%

ventories to Turnover%

ebtor to Turnover%

tal Assets

ATIOS

B

S

ade receivables

sh and bank balances

ort-term loans and advances

pital work-in-progress

ng-term loans and advances

ventories

ngible assets

ng-term borrowingsort-term borrowings

ng-term provisions

ade payables

ort-term provisions

tal liabilities

tangibles

tal equity

Coal India LTD.

S PERFORMANCE

are capital

serve & Surplus



18/20

BUY

1M 1yr YTD

bsolute -1 46 41

el. to Nifty -4 39 23


omoters 46.8 46.8 46.8

31.5 30.7 28.8

I 12.1 12.4 14.3

hers 9.7 10.1 10.0

Financials Rs, Cro


Revenue 2668 2476 7.8 2301 15.9

EBITDA 660 590 11.9 515 28.2

PAT 417 405 3.0 297 40.4

EBITDA Margin 24.7% 23.8% 90bps 22.4% 240bps

PAT Margin 15.6% 16.4% (70bps) 12.9% 270bps

LUPIN"Optimistic Guidance "

arget Price 1006

evious Target Price -

esult UpdateMP 873

The management of the company in its latest media interaction stated that the company

confident of logging 15-20 % CAGR in US and India in the days to come on the back of ri

pipeline as well as acquisition based strategy. Management further said that company

expecting to launch about 100 new drugs in next three years. This new launch will incluan entire range of oral contraceptives and opthal products.

15%pside

ne Year Forward P/E


39101

verage Daily Volume 395892


We have slightly raise our TP to Rs 1006 on the back management guidance post t

results. The management is quite optimistic for its business outlook going forward a

believes that the company will achieve its set target going forward.

The Net profits for 2QFY14 came at Rs 417 Cr. The higher incidence of tax during t

quarter is due to tax provision of Rs 51 Cr made on dividends received from subsidiaries

Lupin earlier posted slightly better than expected 2QFY14 results ,the company report

its net sales at Rs 2631 Cr up by 18 % YoY on the back of strong business performan

from US and Europe formulation segment. The segment grew by 31% YoY to Rs. 1108

Cr during 2Q FY14, against Rs. 844.4 Cr for Q2, FY 2012

13.This segment contribu

42% to overall Company sales.US brands business contributed 10% of total US sale

whereas the generics business contributed 90% for the quarter under review.

The Indian formulation business contributed 25% of the Company

overall revenues for the quarter.Companys India formulation business grew by 9

recording revenues of Rs. 6,635 m. during Q2, FY 2013

14, as compared to Rs. 6,064

for Q2, FY 2012

13. The companysrest other business geographies to have performrelatively good for the company.

The company has filed 7 ANDAs and received 6 ANDA approvals in the quarter. Cumulat

ANDA filings with the US FDA now stand at 183 with the company having received approvals to date.

ock Performance-%

hare Holding Pattern-%

kt Capital (Rs, Cr)

The operating EBITDA for the 2QFY14 came at Rs 660 Cr and OPM stands at 24.7%.T

RM cost decreased by 7.7% to 32.0% of net sales at Rs. 841.3 Cr during 2QFY14

compared to Rs. 889.8 Cr for 2Q FY 13.Manufacturing & other expenses increased by

30.4% of net sales at Rs. 798.8 Cr during 2Q FY14 as compared to Rs. 591.7 Cr for t

same period last fiscal.Revenue expenditure on R&D stood at 8.3% of net sales at R

217.2 Cr.

fty 6332

hange from Previous -


SE Symbol LUPIN

arket DataSE Code 500257

"BUY"11th Dec' 13



19/20


LUPIN

les and PAT Trend (Rs)


PM %

PM %

company reported its net sales at Rs 2631up by 18 % YoY on the back of stro

business performance fr

US and Europe formulation segment.

The higher incidence of tax during

quarter is due to tax provision of Rs 51

made on dividends received from subsidiar





20/20

20

k Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice t

rnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely fo

ormation and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly available information, findings of our research

st wind& information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, an

se are subject to change without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations, should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions ke

mind that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will b

assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or otherw

recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned in this report/messa

As Slower Economic Growth Narnolia Securities Limited Recommended Buy Stock of Bank of India

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