Page 1
Patrick J. Kelly
Presented to the
NCES/SHEEO Network Conference
April 12, 2005
National Center for Higher Education Management SystemsP.O. Box 9752 Boulder, Colorado 80301-9752 (303) 497-0301
As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact of Higher Education Inequality in the States
Page 2
2
Why this Report? Why Now?A Collision of Several Trends• Increasing value of a college degree
• Increasing gaps between Whites and minorities in educational attainment
• Shifting demographics – the least-educated populations are growing at the highest rates
• Inability of state systems of higher education to serve and retain minorities at nearly the rates of Whites
• The emergence of a global economy – the U.S. is falling behind other countries in educational attainment
• All at a time when many state policymakers are increasingly concerned about the development of human capital
Page 3
3
Topics Included in the Presentation
1. The Changing Demography
The Nation
Illustrative States
2. Differences in Education Attainment and Economic Benefits Between the Race/Ethnic Populations
3. Projected Implications if Efforts to Level the Playing Field Aren’t Successful
Page 4
4
Shares of U.S. Population Age 25-64 by Race/Ethnicity from 1980 to 2020
*Based on 1990 Census
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census) and U.S. Population Projections (Based on 2000 Census)
62.5
13.2
17.4
72.1
81.9
10.211.6
5.711.4
0.6 0.7 0.81.74.1 6.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Per
cent
WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic/LatinoNative American/AK Native*Asian/Pacific Islander
Actual Projected
Page 5
5
Projected Change in U.S. Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020 (in Millions)
Note: Projections based on 2000 Census are not available for Native Americans.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-1.83-0.88
7.12
12.40
1.110.42
2.03
3.692.29
6.50
1.87
5.49
7.32
2.97
1.200.33
1.412.79
1.57
-6.59
-10
-5
0
5
10
15 White African-American Hispanic/Latino Asian/Pacific Islander
Ages 0-17 Ages 18-24 Ages 65+Ages 45-64Ages 25-44
Page 6
90% of Hispanic/Latino Population
Cities with Populations over 250,000
* Counties that Comprise 90% of all Hispanics/Latinos. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
Counties Where the Majority of Hispanics/Latinos Reside* and Cities with Total Populations over 250,000
Page 7
90% of African-American Population
Cities with Populations over 250,000
Counties Where the Majority of African-Americans Reside* and Cities with Total Populations Over 250,000
* Counties that Comprise 90% of all African-Americans. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
Page 8
8
Trends in Educational Attainment of U.S. Population Relative to the Most Educated Countries
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per
cent
Canada Finland Japan Korea Norway Sweden United States
Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree or Higher
Page 9
9
Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2000
Note: Data not available for 1980.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1990 and 2000 Census)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2000
Per
cent
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
Page 10
10
Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 1980-2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1990 2000
Per
cent
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
Page 11
11
Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2000
Note: Data not available for 1980.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1990 and 2000 Census)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2000
Per
cent
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
Page 12
12
Percent of U.S. Population Age 25-34 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 1980-2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1990 2000
Per
cent
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
Page 13
13
Educational Attainment of U.S. Young Workforce (Age 25-34) Indexed to the Most Educated Country, 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
0.90.8
1.00.9
0.4 0.4
0.5 0.5
0.3 0.30.4 0.4
0.3 0.30.30.4
1.6
1.2
1.5
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Bachelor's Degree or Higher All College Degrees (Associate or Higher)
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
U.S. Index = 0.86 U.S. Index = 0.77
NORWAY CANADA
Page 14
14
Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of Education, 2002 (Percent)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education; National Center for Education Statistics
6369 67
7074
71
14 13 14 12 11 9 1016
12 10 11 106 7
1 1 1 1 1 1 14 5 6 7 5 6 6
68
0
20
40
60
80
18-Year-Olds High SchoolGraduates
First-TimeFreshmen
All OtherUndergraduates
AssociateDegreesAwarded
Bachelor'sDegreesAwarded
All Credentialsand Degrees
Awarded
Per
cent
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander
Page 15
15
Percent of Degree-Seeking First-Time Full-Time Freshmen Graduating Within 150% of Program Time by Race/Ethnicity, 2002
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey 2002
57.1
30.7
38.1
23.0
44.7
26.6
37.0
24.9
62.7
30.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Six-Year Graduation Rate of Bachelor's Students
Three-Year Graduation Rate ofAssociate Students
Per
cent
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander
Page 16
16
Mean Earnings by Degree Level Using the Consumer Price Index (Adjusted to 2001 $)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Less than High School
High School Diploma
Some College/Associate Degree
Bachelor’s Degree
Graduate/Professional Degree
Page 17
17
Average Annual Earnings by Race/Ethnicity and Gender of Population Age 25-64 Working 35 or More Hours per Week, 1999
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census)
37,448
45,199
46,166
67,495
92,751
24,285
29,387
31,986
41,767
52,805
28,579
33,858
36,730
46,901
64,641
22,952
26,742
29,918
37,656
49,083
28,664
35,191
38,811
48,932
67,338
21,149
25,798
28,995
35,822
45,160
28,350
33,426
34,654
47,027
59,586
20,612
24,057
26,121
34,113
46,570
30,217
36,282
39,386
54,245
81,433
23,309
28,908
32,475
41,009
55,727
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Prof.
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
Page 18
18
Average Annual Earnings by Race/Ethnicity and Gender of Population Age 25-34 Working 35 or More Hours per Week, 1999
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census)
30,838
35,028
36,690
49,469
60,308
20,875
24,478
27,204
35,911
42,423
24,021
28,583
31,472
39,264
48,623
19,331
22,666
25,657
32,578
39,742
25,075
30,094
32,536
39,897
45,653
18,563
22,708
25,275
32,185
36,694
23,884
28,031
28,499
38,445
47,728
17,003
19,353
22,538
28,484
35,697
26,031
31,120
33,599
46,642
60,282
20,673
26,099
27,391
37,759
46,766
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Prof.
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
Page 19
19
Difference in Earnings Between a High School Diploma and a College Degree—Population Age 25-64 Working 35 or More Hours Per Week, 1999
7,432
24,681
6,903
15,790
8,434
17,156
4,961
15,341
9,056
21,054
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
Annual Earnings from High School toAssociate Degree
Annual Earnings from High School toBachelor's Degree
WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic/LatinoNative American/AK NativeAsian/Pacific Islander
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census)
Page 21
21
Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Indexed to Top Country—California
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
U.S. Index = 0.77
CANADA
Page 22
22
154,132
3,682,247
-3,225
1,713,553
-107,303
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
White African-American
Hispanic/Latino NativeAmerican/AK
Native
Asian/PacificIslander
Projected Change in Population Age 25-64 by Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020—California
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census 2000
Page 23
23
Projected Number Change in Adults Age 25-64 by Degree Level from 2000 to 2020—California
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000
2,119,259
876,522777,868
271,012
629,474
289,478
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Less than HS High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Prof.
Page 24
24
Distribution of Educational Attainment for Population Age 25-64, 2000 and Projected 2020, California
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census 2000
16.118.5
27.8 27.3
22.3 21.7
7.2 7.0
17.1 16.4
9.4 9.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Per
cent
2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020
Less than HS High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Prof.
Page 25
25
Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of Education, 2002—California (Percent)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education; National Center for Education Statistics
39
4345 46
49 49
7 7 8 8 75 6
40
34
2725 26
1719
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
11
15
19 1916
23
18
42
0
10
20
30
40
50
18-Year-Olds High SchoolGraduates
First-TimeFreshmen
All OtherUndergraduates
AssociateDegreesAwarded
Bachelor'sDegreesAwarded
All Credentialsand Degrees
Awarded
Per
cent
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander
Page 26
26
Projected Change in Per Capita Personal Income from 2000 to 2020—California
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000
22,728
20,25221,591 21,196
28,86927,813
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
2000 2020
California U.S. Average Top State
Page 27
27
South Carolina
Page 28
28
Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with an Associate Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Indexed to Top Country—South Carolina
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
U.S. Index = 0.77
CANADA
Page 29
29
104,167
31,372
84812,484
130,228
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
White African-American
Hispanic/Latino NativeAmerican/AK
Native
Asian/PacificIslander
Projected Change in Population Age 25-64 by Race/Ethnicity from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census 2000
Page 30
30
Projected Number Change in Adults Age 25-64 by Degree Level from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000
62,710
80,782
51,119
18,701
33,931
17,740
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
Less than HS High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Prof.
Page 31
31
Racial/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of Education, 2002—South Carolina (Percent)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education; National Center for Education Statistics
59 60
6671
7572
3638
30 2926
21 23
3 1 1 1 1 1 10 0 1 0 1 0 01 1 1 1 1 1 1
66
0
20
40
60
80
18-Year-Olds High SchoolGraduates
First-TimeFreshmen
All OtherUndergraduates
AssociateDegreesAwarded
Bachelor'sDegreesAwarded
All Credentialsand Degrees
Awarded
Per
cent
White African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander
Page 32
32
Projected Change in Per Capita Personal Income from 2000 to 2020—South Carolina
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections and Census 2000
18,784 19,342
21,591 21,196
28,86927,813
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
2000 2020
South Carolina U.S. Average Top State
Page 33
33
Difference Between Whites and the Next Largest Racial/Ethnic Groups in the Percentage of Adults 25 to 64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (2000)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples, Based on 2000 Census
28.828.6
26.424.7
24.224.2
23.723.723.423.1 21.9
21.6 20.520.3 19.7
19.4 18.618.618.5 17.9
17.517.417.116.9 15.6
15.5 14.814.614.2
13.713.513.413.2 12.5
12.312.212.0 11.4
11.211.010.9 10.2 9.2
9.1 8.58.48.3 7.9 7.0
4.7 4.0
0
10
20
30
ColoradoCaliforniaConnecticutNew M
exicoNew JerseyM
assachusettsNew YorkAlaskaTexasRhode IslandArizonaKansasNebraskaW
ashingtonUtahVirginiaM
ontanaNorth DakotaO
regonVerm
ontIdahoSouth DakotaIllinoisM
arylandSouth CarolinaNevadaW
isconsinUnited StatesDelawarePennsylvaniaG
eorgiaW
yoming
North CarolinaM
innesotaLouisianaIowaM
issouriM
ichiganO
hioAlabam
aM
ississippiHawaiiIndianaO
klahoma
FloridaTennesseeArkansasKentuckyNew Ham
pshireW
est VirginiaM
aine
Page 34
34
Difference Between Whites and the Next Largest Racial/Ethnic Groups in the Percentage of Adults 25 to 64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 200033.3 32.3
30.1 29.0 28.327.9 27.1
27.126.726.726.426.1 24.9
24.724.4 22.8
22.620.720.5 18.8
18.318.218.117.917.817.817.417.1 15.9
15.8 15.115.014.814.7 13.7
13.413.313.1 11.6
11.6 10.710.510.4 9.4 9.0 8.6
8.5 8.1 7.75.1 4.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
CaliforniaColoradoConnecticutAlaskaM
assachusettsNew YorkNew M
exicoRhode IslandNew JerseyNebraskaTexasArizonaW
ashingtonKansasUtahO
regonIdahoNevadaVirginiaSouth DakotaW
isconsinSouth CarolinaW
yoming
IowaM
arylandIllinoisDelawareNorth DakotaUnited StatesNorth CarolinaVerm
ontM
ontanaPennsylvaniaM
innesotaG
eorgiaLouisianaM
ichiganM
ississippiM
issouriO
hioAlabam
aFloridaIndianaHawaiiArkansasTennesseeNew Ham
pshireO
klahoma
KentuckyW
est VirginiaM
aine
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Samples, Based on 2000 Census
Page 35
35
Projected Change* in Percent of Population Age 25-64 with Less than a High School Diploma, 2000-20
*Projected Change is based on 2000 educational attainment by race/ethnicity and the projected changes in the population age 25-64 by race/ethnicity.
Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 Population Projections
4.8 4.63.6 3.3
2.5 2.4 2.12.12.12.12.1 2.02.0 1.91.91.9 1.8 1.6 1.3
1.3 1.21.21.21.2 1.11.11.1 1.0 0.9
0.9 0.80.80.80.8 0.70.7 0.6 0.5
0.50.5 0.40.4 0.30.30.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
-0.5-1.2
-5.8-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
NevadaCaliforniaArizonaTexasColoradoIllinoisM
assachusettsNew YorkNew M
exicoUnited StatesRhode IslandO
regonConnecticutIdahoNew JerseyKansasW
ashingtonFloridaUtahM
innesotaDelawareNebraskaW
isconsinO
klahoma
AlaskaM
arylandG
eorgiaVirginiaArkansasLouisianaPennsylvaniaNorth CarolinaW
yoming
IowaHawaiiM
ississippiSouth DakotaIndianaM
ichiganSouth CarolinaM
ontanaAlabam
aO
hioM
issouriTennesseeNew Ham
pshireKentuckyW
est VirginiaVerm
ontM
aineNorth Dakota
Page 36
36
Projected Change* in Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000-20
*Projected Change is based on 2000 educational attainment by race/ethnicity and the projected changes in the population age 25-64 by race/ethnicity.
Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 Population Projections
1.800.96
0.300.24 0.02
0.00
-0.02-0.06
-0.14-0.14-0.16-0.20-0.27-0.29-0.33-0.35-0.39-0.40-0.45-0.48-0.51-0.53-0.56-0.57-0.64-0.65-0.65-0.66
-0.74-0.75-0.76-0.79-0.79-0.83-0.84-0.87
-1.00-1.10-1.11-1.16
-1.29-1.31
-1.45 -1.66-2.19-2.21-2.22 -2.42 -2.57 -2.75
-0.01
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
North DakotaHawaiiM
aineNew Ham
pshireW
est VirginiaKentucky
Michigan
Vermont
Ohio
Missouri
IowaTennessee
Alabama
PennsylvaniaSouth Carolina
AlaskaM
ontanaSouth Dakota
IndianaM
ississippiNorth Carolina
ArkansasW
isconsinLouisiana
Oklahom
aW
yoming
Minnesota
New JerseyVirginia
Maryland
WashingtonNebraska
FloridaO
regonUtah
GeorgiaIdaho
United StatesKansas
DelawareIllinois
Massachusetts
New YorkRhode Island
ConnecticutTexas
ColoradoNevadaArizona
CaliforniaNew M
exico
Page 37
37
Projected Change* in Personal Income Per Capita, 2000-20 (In 2000 $)
*Projected change in personal income is based on the annual personal income by age group (15 years and older) and race/ethnicity in 2000 and the population projections by age group and race/ethnicity in 2020.
Source: U.S. Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau’s 1995 population projections
845817794 665
660645634612 557
533522517489456438403367345 247
221196178172126100 79 68 68 67 60 29 0
-21 -65 -144-158 -265 -395
-400 -530 -662 -845 -956 -1051-1056-1103-1137-1182
-2189 -2475
-5
-$3,000
-$2,000
-$1,000
$0
$1,000
UtahVerm
ontArkansasM
aineNew Ham
pshireW
est VirginiaKentuckyM
ississippiSouth CarolinaAlabam
aIdahoDelawareNorth CarolinaTennesseeSouth DakotaM
issouriM
ontanaIndianaIowaNevadaO
hioW
isconsinM
ichiganNebraskaKansasM
innesotaO
klahoma
Georgia
VirginiaFloridaW
yoming
PennsylvaniaNorth Dakota
Oregon
WashingtonLouisiana
New Mexico
ArizonaUnited States
MarylandIllinois
ColoradoRhode Island
TexasNew JerseyConnecticut
HawaiiM
assachusettsNew York
AlaskaCalifornia
Page 38
38
Personal Income Per Capita Relative to State Total Taxable Resources Per Capita
Tota
l Per
sona
l Inc
ome
Per
Cap
ita, 2
002
Tax Capacity – Total Taxable Resources Per Capita, 2002
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CACO
CT
DE
GAHI
IL
INIAKS
KY LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
NCND
OH
OK
OR
PA RI
SC
SD
UT
VT
VAWA
WIUS
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
NM
TNTX
WV
WY
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000
R2 = 0.932
Page 39
39
What Can We Do About It?
1. Race-Based Admissions Aren’t Very Possible
2. Accountability Measures
3. Incentives for Institutions to Enroll and Retain More Minorities
4. Others?
Page 40
40
A full report and state profiles can be accessed at:
www.higheredinfo.org