Arunachal Pradesh SAPCC

8/11/2019 Arunachal Pradesh SAPCC

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Arunachal Pradesh StateAction Plan on Climate Change

Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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Arunachal Pradesh StateAction Plan on Climate Change

July 2011

Government of Arunachal Pradesh

Disclaimer

The data and information used for rearing this reort have !een sourcedfrom secondary sources including state government deartments and officials"u!lished sources of Government of #ndia" and climate change assessmentmade !y the consultants$ %hile due care has !een ta&en to ensure authenticityof the data and other information used" any inadvertent 'rong data orinformation used is regretted$ %e are not lia!le to any legal or enalresonsi!ilities arising from this and also from the use of this reort !yanyone$(


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A)*+AC,A- P)AD.S, STAT. ACT#/+ P-A+ /+ C-#AT. C,A+G.

ore'ord

iv


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Ac&no'ledgement

v


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Preface

vi


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vii


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Ta!le of Contents

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.5.C*T#4. S*A)6

SAPCC P).PA)AT#/+ P)/C.SS/3S.)4.D C-#AT. T).+DS A+D P)/J.CT.D C-#AT. C,A+G.STAT. G,G .#SS#/+

C-#AT. C,A+G. #PACTP).S.+T P/-#C#.S 7 P)/G)AS A+D -#+AG.S %#T, +APCCST)AT.G#.S T/ ADD).SS C/+C.)+S / C-#AT. C,A+G.

Strategies and Proosed #nvestmentC)/SS C*TT#+G ACT#4#T#.S8#+ST#T*T#/+A- A))A+G..+TS/+#T/)#+G A+D .4A-*AT#/+

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%ater )esources-anduseD./G)AP,6.C/+/6#+)AST)*CT*).Physical infrastructure

Social infrastructureSAPCC P).PA)AT#/+ P)/C.SS

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/ther schemeArunachal Pradesh 3uilding 3ye -a's 2010 notified)ural Develoment)ural )oads

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G)..+#+G #+D#A #SS#/+F .AS*).S T/ C/*+T.) C-#AT. C,A+G.Programme for reducing vulnera!ility to climate change under the Greening #ndia ission8Car!on sin& enhancement roects 'ith siHe" location and investment needs

Car!on sin& enhancement otential of the roosed roects under G#S*STA#+A3-. AG)#C*-T*). #SS#/+

#dentified vulnera!ility reduction measures in agriculture sector8

#dentified vulnera!ility reduction measures in livestoc& sector8,/)T#C*-T*).C-#AT. C,A+G. 4*-+.)A3#-#T6 ).D*CT#/+ .AS*).S

#nstitutional Suort.+,A+C.D .+.)G6 .#C#.+C6 #SS#/+

JA%A,A)-A- +.,)* +AT#/+A- S/-A) #SS#/++AT#/+A- #SS#/+ /+ S*STA#+A3-. ,A3#TAT*r!an Transort*r!an aing

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Climate change vulnera!ility reduction interventions,.A-T, S.CT/) C-#AT. C,A+G. ST)AT.G6 A+D ACT#/+ P-A+

ST)AT.G#C +/%-.DG. #SS#/+C/+S/-#DAT.D A3ST)ACT / 3*DG.T ).I*#)..+T /) A)*+AC,A- P)AD.S,

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+..D / ).S.A)C, A+D D.4.-/P.+T #+ ,/)T#C*-T*). S.CT/)8

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cultivation" graHing" forest fires" encroachment" commercial lantations" human9'ildlife conflicts andillegal e


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/!served Climate Trends and Proected Climate Change

Current Climate8 The long term analysis for trends in o!served seasonal reciitation andtemerature over Arunachal Pradesh using #D gridded and temerature at daily time scales sho'that the rise in maoC to oC$ inimum temerature isroected to increase !y 1oC to 2$EoC during 20=0s and !y 2$@oC to oC during 20@0s$

State G,G .mission

State .mission8 Arunachal Pradesh ran&s among the lo'est G,G emitting states of #ndia$ -essinfrastructure develoment" lo' car!onisation levels" high utilisation of !io mass for energy ando'er generation from rene'a!le sources Bhydro and a!sence of industries are the maor factorscontri!uting to lo' levels of G,G emissions$ A!out of G,G emissions come from energycategory$ Agriculture sector contri!utes ? of C,> and = of +2/ emission in the state$

Climate Change #mact

##T Delhi and ##Sc 3angalore had made assessment of the imact of roected climate change on'ater and forests$

#mact on %ater resources8 Analysis for entire 3rahmautra !asin reveals an increase in the annualreciitation of 2$= for middle of century B20=0s as comared to !ase line$ ,o'ever" for the3rahmautra !asin lying 'ithin Arunachal Pradesh" analysis roects a decrease in annual

reciitation of a!out to 1 !y mid century$ The change in 'ater availa!ility sho' satialvariation from marginal reduction B to no change across the state to'ards 20=0s$ The green'ater flo' Bevaotransiration sho's increase !ut the magnitude is marginal under mid century ascomared to !aseline$ The situation of green 'ater storage Bsoil 'ater sho's no change from the!aseline under mid century scenario$ These roections are derived from S%AT distri!utedhydrologic modelling$

1

2

20=0s8 average of 20219200" 20@0s8average of 20?1920@

A13 #PCC S).S socio9economic scenario BcharacteriHed !y a future 'orld of very raid economic gro'th"

glo!al oulation that ea&s in mid9century and declines thereafter" and raid introduction of ne' and more

efficient technologies" 'ith the develoment !alanced across energy sources

=P).C#S BProviding )egional Climate for #mact Studies is the ,adley Centre orta!le regional climate model"

develoed to run on a PC 'ith a grid resolution of 0$>>Q < 0$>>Q$ P).C#S simulation datasets is rovided !y the#ndian #nstitute of Troical eteorology" Pune


21/128


#mact on orest8 The dynamic vegetation model outut sho's that during short eriod of 20=0s

out of the 2EE forested grids in Arunachal Pradesh" ==1 B 12$> '$r$t$ !aseline 'ill !e imacted !yclimate change$ Percentage of forested grids roected to !e imacted !y 20@0 is less to the tune of? B'$r$t$ !aseline" the reason !eing rainfall is roected to increase to'ards 20@0s as comared to20=0s 'here decrease is roected" according to the A13 scenario$ A change in forest tyes isroected in northern region of *er Siang district" 'estern region of Di!ang 4alley" southern %est

Siang and 'estern region of urung umey districts$ Thus the !iodiversity rich districts of ArunachalPradesh are roected to !e adversely imacted !y climate change !y 20=0s$ This imlies that thefuture climate is not otimal or suita!le to the e


22/128


Strategies to address concerns of climate change

To synergiHe sustaina!le develoment and adatation to climate change a list of rograms andolicies as erceived !y the State have !een identified !y state sectoral deartments$

orestry8 A reliminary list of climate change vulnera!ility reduction interventions and roect ideas"

!ased on the Greening #ndia ission have !een identified$ There is a need for conductingreliminary studies to identify locations for imlementing the vulnera!ility reduction measures$ The

e11 million ruees under the Car!on sin&enhancement roects$ This 'ill cover 1$?>? million hectares 'ith an intention to increase forestcover and eco9restoration of degraded forests$ The annual incremental car!on sin& enhancement

otential is estimated to !e 20$E million tonnes of Car!on or a!out ? million tonnes of C/2 !y2020$ Thus forest sector indeed can lay a large role in mitigation of G,G emissions not only forAurnachal Pradesh !ut also for #ndia$

Agriculture8 Deartment of Agriculture and Deartment of Animal ,us!andry and 4eterinary haveointly roosed the vulnera!ility reduction measures$ )eha!ilitation of shifting cultivation areas !y'ay of terraced rice cultivation to cover 0$011 ha 'ith a cost imlication of 1100 million ruees

and enhancement of livestoc& roduction !y introduction of climate change adative measures 'ith

a cost imlication of 120 million ruees have !een identified and the imlementation is roosed to!e carried out as short term sread over ne00$00million ruees resectively$ Part of the roosed investment of 2@$ ? million ruees has !eenta&en care of in the forestry sector under Green #ndia ission$ The lan mainly include climateresilient oriented cultivation ractices and imlementation resource conservation technology li&emicro irrigation and rain 'ater harvesting system$ Additional roosal for institutional suort for )

7 D and climate change information dissemination at a cost of ?0 million ruees$ urther"assistance is sought for in situ L e< situ conservation of germlasm of agricultural and horticultural

imortanceL conservation of 'ild relative of agricultural and horticultural cros found in ArunachalPrades and investigation on use of e


23/128


!een su!mitted 'ith an estimated cost of E$@0 million ruees$ #mlementation eriod is sreadover years$

*r!an Develoment8 *nder +ational ission on Sustaina!le ,a!itat" roosed investment of

=@?@$@0 million ruees for ur!an transort B=00 million ruees and ur!an maing B=2@$@million ruees has !een identified$ aor art of the reMuired investment is to'ards !uildingse'erage line and storm 'ater drainage in t'enty si< ur!an settlements$ Part funding is e1 ha!itations through a road length of 1==$? &m$Connecting >2> ha!itations through rural road net'or&s 'ith a road length of 20?$>> &m$ 'asaccomlished through a nine hase roect involving >?@ road 'or& roects for =E$1 millionruees until Decem!er 2010$

%ater )esources8 *nder +ational %ater ission" mitigation roects 'ith a estimated cost of100$00 million ruees have !een roosed$ ain focus is on )oof to rain 'ater harvestingschemes" source rotection" gully lugging" chec& dam" catchment area rotection" contourtrenching" imounding reservoirs and artificial recharge$ Additional funding for la!our has !eenroosed to dra' from +).GA and #%P$ *nder adatation eco friendly schemes li&e non 'aterconsuming .co9San toilets 'ith an estimated cost of 112$0 million ruees have !een roosed$

.mhasis on advocacy and communication strategy on otimum 'ater use" re9use of 'ater" 'ise'ater use rograms and 'ater ricing has !een roosed$ #mlementation eriod is sread over years$

,ealth8 Some of the action lans and roects for a sustaina!le develoment and adatation toClimate Change as erceived !y the Deartment of ,ealth and family %elfare at a cost of @?0$0million ruees have !een roosed and imlementation eriod is ne !illion ruees" e


24/128


Strategies and Proosed #nvestmentProosed activities and the investment reMuired are given the ta!le at the end$

Cross Cutting Activities8

The State has already recogniHed a large num!er of issues critical to the management of climate

change$ Some of the critical areas recognised and the areas of research that need to !e ta&en uunder the Strategic no'ledge ission$ The critical issues that are sread across the sectors anddomains include8 climate change vulnera!ility assessment studies across sectors" strengthening ofdata!ase and infrastructure for climate related data collection and analysis" Caacity !uilding andtraining" #P) and traditional &no'ledge rotection" documenting traditional ractices" local&no'ledge and fol& traditions" gender sensitive adatation otions li&e effective strategies forensuring 'ater suly and Muality" and reducing the !urden on 'omen caused !y 'ater collection"

gender9secific use of health facilities" 'omenNs access to ne' technologies" e


25/128


Proosed activities and the investment reMuired Bconsidering Technical Potential under orest Sector

Proosed

investmentBin illion

)s

Target Area

Bha

To !e

covered

undercurrent

lan Bha

Sector Category of #nterventions Proosed activitiesL roects *nit costLha B)s Time Period

orest BG#

Anticiatory lanting of seciesacross latitudinal and longitudinal

gradient

Promotion of natural regenerationand mi


26/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

200

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha

Sector Category of #nterventions

Su!9 ission >8 Agro9forestry andsocial orestry Bincreasing !iomass 7

creating car!on sin&

Proosed activitiesL roects *nit costLha B)sTarget Area

Bha Time Period

armersO land including current fallo's"

shelter!elt lantations

1"2"000L9

Bresent cost 0$02

Agroforestry includes horticultural orchards and homestead gardens on farms

Total Car!on sin& enhancement

Total 9 orest

Agriculture

4ulnera!ility)eduction

Agriculture

-ivestoc&

Total Agriculture

,orticulture

A$ Climate Change orientedcultivation ractice

Ale

-o' chilling " disease and est resistant and

drought tolerant Cultivars" use of # 7 )%,"organic cultivation" ,DP etc

-o' chilling " disease and est resistant

Cultivars" # 7 )%," organic cultivation

9do9

*se of nuclear seedlings from highly tolerantlocal cultivars 'ith high roductivity and

longevity" drought tolerant and use of#7)%," /rganic cultivation etc$

,DP 'ith imroved cultivation management"

use of #7 )%," /rganic cultivation etc$

9do9

=12$

Ta'ang" %est

ameng" some

oc&ets of other

districts$

9do9

9do9

All Siang districts"

-ohit" -D4"PLPare"*er Su!ansiri"

.ast ameng"Tira and

Changlang

9do9

do9

12=0@ 200

)eha!ilitation of Shifting Cultivation areas !y

Terraced )ice Cultivation

.nhancement of livestoc& roduction !y

introduction of CC adative measures

1100

120

1220

1"00"000 er ha

?"00"000 er

district

0$011

Sread over years

#n all districts

>11

E201@

1$?>?

i'i

Adatation/ther temerate cros

12

12

20

>?

1000

1000

2011912 to 20191E

hasi andarinL citrus ?0 2?0 E000

Pineale

/ther su!9troical fruits

1@?$

1@?$

1022

11@00

100

100


27/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

12

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha

1000

Sector Category of #nterventions Proosed activitiesL roects *nit costLha B)sTarget Area

Bha Time Period

Ginger

*se of rhiHome rot and other disease tolerant

varieties" imroved cultivation management"use of #7 )%," /rganic cultivation etc

)elacing the higher altitude reMuiringvarieties 'ith mid9 and lo' hill varieties"

disease and est resistant verities and other

measures sho'n a!ove$

9do9

ulti croing" inter9croing and as

comonent of agro9forestry$

*se of drought and disease resistant cultivars"use of use of #7 )%," /rganic cultivation

etc

9do9 22@2

-arge Cardamom

/ther Sices

edicinal and aromatic cros

4egeta!les

Total BA

3$ icro #rrigation and )ain %ater

,arvesting System B#7 )%,

All cros

Total B3

Total BAR3


1@?$ 9do9

All districts

12>2

0

1000

1000

100

12

=?

200

All districts

All districts

1000

=000

20000

To !e installed in all cultivated areas forudicious use of %ater$ %), to ta the

surface run off !y rain 'ater and also forartificial recharge of ground 'ater

2011912 to 20191E

2>00

2>00

>00

All districts 12000

12000

#nfrastructure suort for )7D activities on

climate change effect on horticulture

Data !ase on Climate Change information

Develoment of adatation technologies

200

=0

1E0

1E0

1E0

1E0

100

> Agro9climatic

:ones

All 1E districts

All 1E districts

All 1E districts

All 1E districts

All 1E districts

All 1E districts

#nstitutional Suort Develoment of mitigation technologies

Jhum cultivation

Germlasm conservationL!iodiversity

conservation

Dissemination of Climate Changeinformation SeminarL%or&shoLTrainingLilm sho'


28/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

@?0

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha Time Period

Total ,orticulture

.nergy

/verloaded old transformer

S*39,.AD 9 #Adotion of ,4DS

)elacement

* gradation

S*39,.AD 9 ##

4ulnera!ility

)eduction S*39,.AD 9 ###

S*39,.AD 9 #4

S*39,.AD 9 4

S*39,.AD 9 4#

*gradationLrelacement o f ASC) conductorof htLlt line 'ith aroriate siHes

Adoting high voltage distri!ution system

)elacement of defective energy meters

system consumer meters iLc roviding meterto unmetered consumers

)elacement of old reflector of e


29/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

0

1=

1>$@

20000

1000

10

=@?@$@

Sread over 10 years

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha Time Period

aster Plan Prearation

aster Plan Prearation Cell

icroHonation and ris& assessment

*r!an aing Se'erage line in t'enty si< *r!an

settlementsStorm 'ater draining in t'enty si< ur!an

settlements

Plastic free Hone in t'enty si< ur!ansettlements

Total *r!an

%ater

)oof to rain ' ater harvesting schemes"

source rotection" gully lugging" chec& dam"catchment area rotection" contour

trenching" imounding reservoirs and

artificial recharge

4ulnera!ility )eduction +ote8 the -a!our cost of any recharging

systemLsurface 'ater imounding structures

should !e met from ahatma Gandhi+ational )ural .mloyment Guarantee

Scheme BG+).GS and #ntegrated%atershed anagement Programme B#%P

?00 .co9San toilets

AdatationA'areness" camaign" Caacity 3uilding

Afforestation and lantation 'ith G# and,orticulture mission

Total %ater

,ealth

.cological study on air ollutants andollen Bas triggers of Asthma 7 )es$

diseases 7 ho' they are affected !yPilot study is roosed for = ,ositals"

100 Sread over years

112$

Sread over years

1E12$

=

1 illionruees er

hositalSread over years


30/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha

)eMuired

ed$ Secialistand Chest

Secialist areavaila!le$

Time Period

CC

1$ General ,osital" +aharlagun$

2$ General ,osital" Pasighat$

=$ )ama rishna ission ,osital" #tanagar$

To screen and study atients suffering from

3ronchial Asthma and other )es$ diseases$

)s$0$

million erdistricts and

)s$2$0 millionfor State ,M$

#ncludes alsotraining cost"

monitoring"field 'or& and

la!$ Test etc$Primary level8

)s$0$ million

er districts

and )s$1@$0million for

State ,MSecondary and

tertiary leveleach8

)s$10$0 million

of )s$0$million er

districts and)s$20$0 million

for State ,M$

Studies on resonse of diseasevectors to climate changes$

.ntomological study on revalence and

vector densities for alaria" J." Dengue"

CC, BChimean9Congo ,aemorrhagic ever

in the state$

10

.nhanced rovision of Primary"Secondary 7 Tertiary health care

facilities 7 imlementation of u!lichealth measures" including vector

control" sanitation 7 clean drin&ing'ater suly

i Primary level89 A'areness and sensitiHation

to all sectors on Climate change$

Sread over years

2

ii Secondary level89 .arly diagnosis and

treatment i$e Testing &its and drugs$

#ii Tertiary level89 Testing &its and treatment

'ith drugs


31/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha

und 'ill !e

needed forengaging

)emoteSensing

deartment forhigh resolution

data transfer$

Time Period

Providing high resolution 'eather 7climate data to study the regional

attern of diseases$

Through #DSP B#ntegrated Disease Surveillance

Proect 'hich is a roect !y G/# o n Disease

Surveillance and is engaged in /ut!rea&L.idemic forecasting and

investigationLmanagement$

10

Develoment of a high resolution

health imact model at the state level

Assistance of deartment$ /f Science 7

Technology" )emote Sensing section 'ill !eta&en for real time high resolution 'eather 7

climate data$

3oth State )emote Sensing ,ealth

deartments" under +43DCP 'ill !e utiliHed

for G#S maing$

9G#S maing of access routes tohealth facilities

PrioritiHation of geograhic areas

!ased on .idemiological data and

the e


32/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha

district for 1E

districts

Time Period

aroval of SAPCC and its

funding

a$ Carry out t he anti malarial activities

through out the year in all the districts$.g8DDT Lalethion srayLfogging

iii$ .nhance level of actions for rotectionagainst osMuito !ites e$g 3ed99netsL--#+ "

Treatment 'ith CloroMuineLIuinineLACTdrugs

!$ #ntensify osMuito Control measures

through source reductionLanti larval

measures in identified hotsot areasin alldistricts$ easures to include avoidance of

stagnation or collection of 'ater" through3iological Control e$g$ -arvivorous ,atchery "

through roer disosal of 'aste ;!iomedical'aste as 'ell as municial solid 'aste and

domestic 'aste 'ater

iii$ Strengthen measures for continuous

screening against ne' and emerging vector

!orne diseases including alaAHar" ilariasis"and Chi&ungunya and any other emerging

vector$

iv$ Strengthen reorting of 4ector !ornediseases in #DSP !y including reorts from all

health centres at all levels in all districts$

Total ,ealth

Grand Total in illion )uees

Caacity 3uilding 1

Proosed Total #nvestment in illion )uees

)s 2$0 Cr er

district=20

1E0

@?0$

1121E$>

1122

11==1@$>

)s 1$00 Cr for

each district

Proosed Total #nvestment in 3illion )uees8 11=$ = B)uees 11"==2 crores


33/128


Proosed activities and the investment reMuired Bconsidering feasi!le areas under orest Sector till 2020

Proosed

investmentBin illion

)s

Target Area

Bha

To !e

covered

undercurrent

lan Bha

Sector Category of #nterventions Proosed activitiesL roects *nit costLha B)s Time Period

orest BG#

Anticiatory lanting of seciesacross latitudinal and longitudinal

gradient

Promotion of natural regenerationand mi


34/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

=00

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha

2">0>

Brovided !y,orticulture

deartment

Time Period

Su!9 ission >8 Agro9forestry and

social orestry Bincreasing !iomass 7

creating car!on sin&

armersO land including current fallo's"

shelter!elt lantations

1"2"000L9

Bresent cost

Agroforestry includes horticultural orchards and homestead gardens on farms

Total Car!on sin& enhancement E00 2"10"000

+ote8 Area8 During the eriod 20129201" annual additional area to !e !rought under G# su!9missions" covering all activities is 1"000 haLyear and Area8 During 201E92020" the additional area covered under G#

su!9missions" covering all activities is =0"000 haLyear

Total 9 orest

Agriculture

4ulnera!ility

)eduction

Agriculture

-ivestoc&

Total Agriculture

,orticulture

A$ Climate Change orientedcultivation ractice

Ale

-o' chilling " disease and est resistant and

drought tolerant Cultivars" use of # 7 )%,"organic cultivation" ,DP etc

-o' chilling " disease and est resistantCultivars" # 7 )%," organic cultivation

9do9

*se of nuclear seedlings from highly tolerantlocal cultivars 'ith high roductivity and

longevity" drought tolerant and use of#7)%," /rganic cultivation etc$

=12$

Ta'ang" %est

ameng" some

oc&ets of other

districts$

9do9

9do9

All Siang districts"

-ohit"-D4"PLPare"

*er Su!ansiri".ast ameng"

Tira andChanglang

12"=0@ 200

)eha!ilitation of Shifting Cultivation areas !yTerraced )ice Cultivation

.nhancement of livestoc& roduction !y

introduction of CC adative measures

1100

120

1220

1"00"000 er ha

?"00"000 er

district

11"000

Sread over years

#n all districts

1>>0=

i'i

Adatation/ther temerate cros

12

12

20

>"?

1000

1000 2011912 to 20191E

hasi andarinL citrus ?0 2"?0 E000


35/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

1@?$

1@?$

12

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha

100

100

1000


Bha Time Period

Pineale

/ther su!9troical fruits

Ginger

,DP 'ith imroved cultivation management"use of #7 )%," /rganic cultivation etc$

9do9

*se of rhiHome rot and other disease tolerant

varieties" imroved cultivation management"use of #7 )%," /rganic cultivation etc

)elacing the higher altitude reMuiringvarieties 'ith mid9 and lo' hill varieties"

disease and est resistant verities and othermeasures sho'n a!ove$

9do9

ulti croing" inter9croing and as

comonent of agro9forestry$

*se of drought and disease resistant cultivars"

use of use of #7 )%," /rganic cultivation

etc

9do9

do9

9do9

10"22

11"@00

2"2@2

-arge Cardamom

/ther Sices

edicinal and aromatic cros

4egeta!les

Total BA

3$ icro #rrigation and )ain %ater

,arvesting System B#7 )%,

All cros

Total B3

Total BAR3


1@?$ 9do9

All districts

12">2

0

1"000

1"000

100

12

=?

200

All districts

All districts

1000

=000

20000

To !e installed in all cultivated areas for

udicious use of %ater$ %), to ta thesurface run off !y rain 'ater and also for

artificial recharge of ground 'ater

2011912 to 20191E

2>00

2>00

>00

All districts 12000

12000

#nfrastructure suort for )7D activities onclimate change effect on horticulture

Data !ase on Climate Change information

200

=0

1E0

1E0

1E0

> Agro9climatic:ones

All 1E districts

All 1E districts

All 1E districts

All 1E districts

#nstitutional SuortDeveloment of adatation t echnologies

Develoment of mitigation technologies

Jhum cultivation


36/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

1E0

100

@?0

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha

All 1E districts

All 1E districts

Time Period

Germlasm conservationL!iodiversity

conservation

Dissemination of Climate Changeinformation

Total ,orticulture

.nergy

/verloaded old transformer

S*39,.AD 9 #Adotion of ,4DS

)elacement

* gradation

S*39,.AD 9 ##

4ulnera!ility)eduction S*39,.AD 9 ###

S*39,.AD 9 #4

S*39,.AD 9 4

S*39,.AD 9 4#

*gradationLrelacement of ASC) conductorof htLlt line 'ith aroriate siHes

Adoting high voltage distri!ution system

)elacement of defective energy meters

system consumer meters iLc roviding meterto unmetered consumers

)elacement of old reflector of e2

=0$1E

00$0@

102$@E

E2$@

$@=

2E$E1

2@$>

DP) su!mitted

2@$>

1@>E$E

Sread over years

Ja'aharlal +ehru +ational Solar

ission

Total .nergy

*r!an

etro Ca!le System

4ulnera!ility)eduction *r!an Transort Jn+*)" C+G 3uses

Solid 'aste management

1000

EE0

@@0

Sread over years


37/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

EE0

=00

0

1=

1>$@

20000

1000

10

=@?@$@

Sread over 10 years

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha Time Period

)oads imrovement

/ther Schemes

aster Plan Prearation

aster Plan Prearation Cell

icroHonation and ris& assessment

*r!an aing Se'erage line in t'enty si< *r!ansettlementsStorm 'ater draining in t'enty si< ur!an

settlementsPlastic free Hone in t'enty si< ur!an

settlements

Total *r!an

%ater

)oof to rain 'ater harvesting schemes"source rotection" gully lugging" chec& dam"

catchment area rotection" contourtrenching" imounding reservoirs and

artificial recharge

4ulnera!ility )eduction +ote8 the -a!our cost of any recharging

systemLsurface 'ater imounding structuresshould !e met from ahatma Gandhi

+ational )ural .mloyment GuaranteeScheme BG+).GS and #ntegrated

%atershed anagement Programme B#%P

?00 .co9San toilets

AdatationA'areness" camaign" Caacity 3uilding

Afforestation and lantation 'ith G# and

,orticulture mission

Total %ater

,ealth

100 Sread over years

112$

Sread over years

1E12$


38/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

=

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha

1 illion

ruees erhosital

)eMuireded$ Secialist

and Chest

Secialist are

availa!le$

Time Period

Pilot study is roosed for = ,ositals"

.cological study on air ollutants andollen Bas triggers of Asthma 7 )es$

diseases 7 ho' they are affected !y

CC

1$ General ,osital" +aharlagun$

Sread over years

2$ General ,osital" Pasighat$

=$ )ama rishna ission , osital" #tanagar$

To screen and study atients suffering from3ronchial Asthma and other )es$ diseases$

)s$0$million er

districts and


#ncludes also

training cost"monitoring"

field 'or& andla!$ Test etc$

Primary level8)s$0$ million

er districtsand )s$1@$0

million for

State ,M

Secondary andtertiary level

each8

Studies on resonse of disease

vectors to climate changes$

.ntomological study on revalence and

vector densities for alaria" J." Dengue"CC, BChimean9Congo ,aemorrhagic ever

in the state$

10

Sread over years

.nhanced rovision of Primary"

Secondary 7 Tertiary health care

facilities 7 imlementation of u!lichealth measures" including vector

control" sanitation 7 clean drin&ing

'ater suly

i Primary level89 A'areness and sensitiHationto all sectors on Climate change$

2


39/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha Time Period

ii Secondary level89 .arly diagnosis andtreatment i$e Testing &its and drugs$

#ii Tertiary level89 Testing &its and treatment'ith drugs

Through #DSP B#ntegrated D isease Surveillance

Proect 'hich is a roect !y G/# o n DiseaseSurveillance and is engaged in /ut!rea&L

.idemic forecasting andinvestigationLmanagement$

)s$10$0 million of )s$0$

million erdistricts and


und 'ill !eneeded for

engaging)emote

Sensing

deartment for

high resolutiondata transfer$

Providing high resolution 'eather 7

climate data to study the regional

attern of diseases$10

Develoment of a high resolutionhealth imact model at the state level

Assistance of deartment$ /f Science 7

Technology" )emote Sensing section ' ill !eta&en for real time high resolution 'eather 7

climate data$

3oth State )emote Sensing ,ealthdeartments" under +43DCP 'ill !e utiliHed

for G#S maing$

9G#S maing of access routes to

health facilities

PrioritiHation of geograhic areas!ased on .idemiological data and

the e


40/128


Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha

0 -a&hs er yr

Time Period

on imacts of climate change on vector

sread" mor!idity and mortality ; all vectorsincluding malaria

Bto !e started

immediately after thearoval of SAPCC and its

funding

ii$ #mrove access to and use of services asthe transmission 'indo' for alaria is

lengthening and going to higher altitudes9

a$ Carry out the anti malarial activities

through out the year in all the districts$.g8DDT Lalethion srayLfogging

iii$ .nhance level of actions for rotectionagainst osMuito !ites e$g 3ed99netsL--#+ "

Treatment 'ith CloroMuineLIuinineLACTdrugs

!$ #ntensify osMuito Control measures

through source reductionLanti larvalmeasures in identified hotsot areasin all

districts$ easures to include avoidance of

stagnation or collection of 'ater" through3iological Control e$g$ -arvivorous ,atchery "

through roer disosal of 'aste ;!iomedical

'aste as 'ell as municial solid 'aste anddomestic 'aste 'ater

iii$ Strengthen measures for continuousscreening against ne' and emerging vector

!orne diseases including alaAHar" ilariasis"and Chi&ungunya and any other emerging

vector$

iv$ Strengthen reorting of 4ector !ornediseases in #DSP !y including reorts from all

health centres at all levels in all districts$

Total ,ealth

)s 2$0 Cr erdistrict

undreMuirement

2$00 Cr erdistrict for 1E

districts

=20

All through 12th lanBto !e started

immediately after thearoval of SAPCC and its

funding

=20

1E0

@?0$

)s 1$00 Cr for

each district


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Proosed

investment

Bin illion

)s

E>@1

E>E

E22?

To !ecovered

undercurrent

lan Bha


Bha Time Period

Grand Total in illion )uees

Caacity 3uilding 1

Proosed Total #nvestment in illion )uees

Proosed Total #nvestment in 3illion )uees8 E$2 B)uees E"2= crores


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D)AT ).P/)T A)*+AC,A- P)AD.S, STAT. ACT#/+ P-A+ /+ C-#AT. C,A+G.U

#ntroduction

Chater 1

Chater 1 V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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#ndiaOs +ational Action Plan on Climate Change B+APCC released in 200@ > outlines its strategy tomeet the challenge of Climate Change$ +APCC is guided !y the rinciles of sustaina!le

develoment BSD and aligns the environmental and economic o!ectives$ $#t outlines a nationalstrategy that aims to ena!le the country adat to climate change and enhances the ecologicalsustaina!ility of #ndiaOs develoment ath$ #t stresses that maintaining a high gro'th rate is essentialfor increasing living standards of the vast maority of eole of #ndia and reducing their vulnera!ilityof the imacts of climate change$ There are eight +ational issions( 'hich form the core of the+ational action lan$ They focus on romoting understanding of climate change" adatation and

mitigation" energy efficiency and natural resource conservation$

As a second ste" after the +ational Action Plan on Climate Change B+APCC 'as announced" allStates have !een as&ed to reare a State level action lan to deal 'ith the challenges of climate

change$ 3roadly the State level action lans are envisioned to !e an ehtt8LLmindia$nic$inLclimateWchange$htm

1 Chater 1 9 #ntroduction V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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Arunachal Pradesh State rofile

Physiograhy

Arunachal Pradesh is the largest State in +orth .ast #ndia and is !ounded !y 3hutan to the 'est"China to the north9east" yanmar B3urma to the east and the lains of Assam to the south$

Arunachal Pradesh is the home of 2E maor tri!es and ac&no'ledged to !e one of the most slendid"variegated and multilingual tri!al areas of the 'orld$

The state is situated in the .astern ,imalayas !et'een latitudes 2Eo =0O+ and 2o =0O+" longitudes1o =0O. and ?o =0O.$ The state has a geograhical area of @="?>= &m2 Bigure 1$ Terrain of the statehas dee valleys rising to stee mountains$ uch of the state is covered !y the .astern ,imalayas$,o'ever" arts of -ohit" Changlang and Tira districts are covered !y the Pat&ai hills$ The state has

comle< hill system 'ith varying elevations ranging from 0 m in the foot hills gradually ascending toa!out ?000 m$ The imortant hill systems are angto assif and +amcha 3ar'a assif$ The angtoassif lies in a gigantic S curve running roughly 'est9south'est and east9north east$ #t is !ecause ofthe e


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Climate

Climate of the state is influenced greatly !y the ,imalayan ountains and large variations in altitudeacross the state$ Areas that are at a very high elevation in uer ,imalayas close to the Ti!etan!order e


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the state is flood rone$ To tac&le the flood ro!lems" construction of em!an&ment" surs and guide!unds etc$ are utmost necessary$ Presently" rotection and restoration 'or&s have !een ta&en9u$

-anduseThere are Agro9climatic Hones in Arunachal Pradesh reflecting the climatic diversity due the largesiHe of the state$ igure 2 sho's the agro climatic Hones of the state$

igure 2 8 Agro ecological Hones of Arunachal Pradesh

Around $1 million hectares BE1$> is under forests$ The ara!le land Bthe net area so'n lus thecurrent 7 fallo' lands is estimated at 0$2 million hectares B=$0@ of the total reorting area B@$=?million ha$ -and under miscellaneous tree cros and groves" not included in the net area so'n" is0$0> million hectares B0$= and the cultura!le 'aste9land is 0$0= million hectares B0$> of thetotal reorting area$

orest

orest is the most imortant resource in Arunachal Pradesh 'ith the redominantly large tri!aloulation living in close association 'ith forests and highly deendent on it$ Traditional shiftingBhum cultivation is racticed !y the eole 'hich imacts uon forest conservation$ The totalforest and tree cover of the state is E$? ha" 'hich is @1$1> of the total geograhical area BS#"200 $ The Protected Areas BPA constitutes 11$@2 of the geograhical area of the state$ orests inthe state can !e categoriHed as troical" su! troical" ine" temerate and aline 'ith !am!oos and

grasses common in the degraded forests$ Car!on seMuestration of forests of Arunachal Pradesh is

Source 8 Source8 State of orest )eort" S#" 200

> Chater 1 9 #ntroduction V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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48/128


igure > 8 Trends in area under different tyes of forest in Arunachal Pradesh

@$00

?$00

E$00

Area Bha$00

>$00

=$00

2$00

1$00

0$00

$==2

2001

$=11

200=

$2=@@

200

$2>1>

200?

0$01>1

1$>11=

0$0111

1$>0@

0$012@

1$=@

0$0111

1$>=

Assessment 6ear

Dense forest /en forest Scru! forest

The dense forest has declined significantly during this eriod and conseMuently the area under oen

forest has increased$ According to the 200? assessment ho'ever" a slight increase in area underdense forests and a decline in scru! forests o'ing to lantation activities underta&en in the state isreorted$

3iodiversity

Arunachal Pradesh ossesses #ndiaOs second highest level of genetic resources$ Although occuyingonly 2$ of #ndiaOs geograhical area" the state occuies a significant lace in terms of floral andfaunal !iodiversity" !eing considered one of the 'orldOs 1@ !iodiversity hotsots and home to @

secies of terrestrial mammals" ?E0 secies of !irds" >"00 secies of angioserms and 0 seciesof orchids$ #t has !een recogniHed !y #nternational %orld Conservation *nion in 1 as one of themaor centers of lant diversity$

Agriculture and ,orticultureAgriculture is the main occuation for a!out = ercent of the oulation of Arunachal Pradesh$Jhum cultivation BShifting Cultivation and Terrace farming B%etland )ice Cultivation B%)C are thet'o maor atterns that farmers emloy$ Jhum is a 'ay of life in the high altitude areas$ Jhum area

roductivity is very lo' B0$? to 0$@ tonnesLha of organic rice against average of = tonnesLha$JhumLshifting cultivation accounts for 0$11 million hectares and ermanent cultivation is a!out 0$0

million hectares$ 1? of total cultivated area is under irrigation$ Jhum cultivation contri!utes onlya!out 1> as comared to Terrace farming contri!ution of @E of total grain roduction in thestate$

Toograhy and climate of Arunachal Pradesh is conducive for cultivation of rice" millets" 'heat"maiHe" ulses" sugarcane and otatoes$ Areas of agricultural imortance in Arunachal Pradeshinclude8 /ff9Season Potato and 4egeta!les in Ta'ang" %est ameng" -o'er Su!ansiri and echu&asu!9division of %est Siang" Commercial Tomato gro'ing in )ua su!division of %est ameng

district" Terraced )ice Cultivation in Shimong B6ing&iong"Pangin" 3oleng" 3asar" *er Su!ansiri"

E Chater 1 9 #ntroduction V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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%et )ice Cultivation in Paumare" .ast Siang" -o'er Di!ang 4alley" -ohit and Changlang" amousPaddy cum ish culture in Aatani lateau" Command area Commercial Cro gro'ing in Jamaniarea of .ast Siang" ustard cultivation in .ast Siang" -o'er Di!ang 4alley" -ohit and Changlang"

Ginger cultivation in -o'er Di!ang 4alley" -o'er Su!ansiri" .ast Siang" Cold Storage underconstruction in .ast Siang and -ohit" %holesale )egulated ar&et at Pasighat" iao"TeHu" PotentialAgro9.co tourism destinations viH$ Ta'ang" 3omdila" :iro" 3asar" echu&a" 3oleng" Pangin" e!o"

Jamani" Pasighat" 6ing&iong" )oing" +amsai" %a&ro" iao" 3orumsa" anu!ari$

,orticulture is an imortant sector in Arunachal Pradesh having tremendous otential for alleviationof rural overty due to e


50/128


.conomy

Agriculture is the rimary source of the economy of the State$ ood grains cultivation includesF rice"maiHe" millet" 'heat" ulses" sugarcane" ginger and oilseeds$ A!out @0 of oulation living in ruralarea is deendent on agriculture and a!out E2 of total 'or&ing oulations are engaged inagriculture$ orest9roducts are the secondary source in the sector of the economy$ Arunachal isalso ideal for horticulture and fruit orchards$ aor industries of sa'mills and ly'ood" rice mills"

fruit reservation units and handloom handicrafts contri!utes their share to the economy of thestate$

Per caita income is around )s$ 2=?@@ er annum in 2009200E Bnational average is )s$ =1"000L9$ #n,uman Develoment #nde< rating of the states" Arunachal Pradesh ran&s at 20th osition E$

Arunachal Pradesh registered a gro'th rate of $ ercent in GSDP against GDP gro'th rate of ?$@ercent BAll9#ndia during the Tenth Plan$ Agriculture and animal hus!andry constitutes maor art

B2 of the state GSDP follo'ed !y manufacturing industry B1=" trade" hotel and restaurantB11" transort" storage and communication B10 and construction B$ District level gross

domestic roduct BGDP distri!ution of the state is sho'n in igure E$

igure E 8 District Poulation and Gross domestic Product of Arunachal Pradesh

Ehtt8LL'cd$nic$inLu!licationLGD#G.)eortLPart2$df

@ Chater 1 9 #ntroduction V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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#nfrastructure

Physical infrastructure li&e road and transort" irrigation" o'er" telecommunication etc contri!utesto economic gro'th through generation of income and emloyment and social infrastructureconsisting of education" health" housing and financial infrastructure li&e !an&ing and insurancecontri!utes to the rocess of gro'th through generation of human caa!ilities and caacity !uilding$

Physical infrastructure

TransortThe State has the lo'est road develoment inde< in the country 'ith road density of 2$1E &m er100 sM$ &m Bnational average is ?= &m er 100 sM &m$ The +ational high'ays account for a!out 12

&m" and maor distract roads is a!out 121E &m$

#rrigationAn area of more than @?"00 hectares has !een irrigated in Arunachal Pradesh$ inor #rrigationCensus of the State reveals that a!out 0$12 million hectare Ba!out EE$E? of availa!le otential

area is irrigated$ The net irrigation area under utiliHation is around 1"?00 hectares 'ith croingintensity in the level of 1=0$E$ resh Potential Assessment !eing done under G#S environment and

ultimate otential is e0 % and an additional 2000 % hydroo'er otential is assessed from microLminiLsmallhydro electric roects$

TelecommunicationThe state has a tele9density of 2?$0 Btelehone connections er 100 oulations$ The state hasa!out 10? telehone e


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*r!an infrastructure*nder the Ja'aharlal +ehru +ational *r!an )ene'al ission BJ++*)" three roects have !eensanctioned for #tanagar" the state caital$ Proects for 'ater suly" solid9'aste management and

ur!an transort have !een identified for develoment under the J++*)$ The ur!an transortroect 'as aroved in 200 'hile t'o other roects on 'ater suly and solid9'astemanagement 'ere aroved in 200?$

%ater sulyAverage er caita suly of 'ater in the cities is 11 lcd" higher than the desired suly of 10lcd$

#ndustrial infrastructure

Arunachal Pradesh has several small and medium scale industries !ased on forest roducts$ Theindustries include ly'ood" rice mills" fruit reservation units and handicrafts$

The state has its o'n mineral develoment and trading cororation 'hich loo&s after the fairtransortation and e00ersons are served !y around hositals and 20 hosital !eds$

SAPCC Prearation Process

Deartment of .nvironment and orests acted as the State +odal Agency for the rearation ofSAPCC$ State Steering Committee BSSC under the chairmanshi of Chief Secretary 'as constituted$/ther mem!ers in the SSC included Princial SecretariesLCommissionersLSecretaries of the various

line deartments" research institutions" +G/s" academia and the %% B#ndia$ Thereafter" the linedeartments dealing 'ith the sectors sensitive to climate change constituted the sectoral %or&ingGrous B%Gs 'ith one erson designated as the +odal /fficer B+/ of the sector$ igure ? sho'sthe ste involved in the rearation of Arunachal Pradesh SAPCC$

10 Chater 1 9 #ntroduction V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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igure ? 8 Process of SAPCC Prearation

Steering Committee BChief Secretary

%or&ing Grou B%ater )esources

B+odal /fficer 8 S." %D

%or&ing GrouB.nvironment and orest

BChairman 8 Addl$ PCC

%or&ing Grou BPo'er

B+odal /fficer 8 S. 9 AP.DA

%or&ing Grou BAgriculture

BChairman8 Commissioner

%or&ing Grou B,orticulture

BChairman8 Commissioner B,ort

%or&ing Grou

BPu!lic %or&s Deartment

BChairman8 Princial Secretary" P%D

%or&ing GrouB)ural %or&s Deartment

B9

%or&ing GrouBPu!lic ,ealth .ngineering 7 %ater Suly

B+odal /fficer8 S." P,.7%SD

%or&ing Grou

BTo'n Planning 7 *r!an Develoment

BChairman8 Secretary" *r!an Dev$ 7 TP

%or&ing Grou

B,ealth

B+odal /fficer8 State .idemiologist

/rientation meeting

'ith 'or&ing grou

#ncetion %or&sho

Draft /utline of sectoral aers

Draft !ac&ground

sectoral aer

3ac&ground aers to

Draft SAPCC document

Circulation amongst

sta&e holders

inalisation meeting of

Draft SAPCC document

State Steering Committee aroval

and ratification

Su!mission to o.

The 'or&ing grou 'as reresented !y mem!ers from different relevant sectorsLdeartments 'hocontri!uted to the sectoral action lans reared !y the 'or&ing grou$ These 'or&ing grous 'erechaired !y Princial Secretary of the resective sector 'ith a designated nodal officer$ #n addition tothe e


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January 'as held at #tanagar 'hich 'as 'ell reresented !y line deartment heads" officers" e


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Climate ; Current 3aseline 7 Climate Proections

Chater 2

1= Chater 2 V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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Chater 2 ; Climate Current 3aselineand Climate Proections


The long term trends in o!served seasonal reciitation and temerature over Arunachal Pradeshusing #D gridded rainfall and temerature at daily time scales has !een erformed to arrive at

current !aseline climatology for Arunachal Pradesh$ Summary is resented in the follo'ingaragrahs$

Data used

X

X

#D gridded rainfall at 0$ degree satial resolution for the time eriod 1?19200 B=years

#D gridded ma$?0$=@ 9 0120$?0$0 9 200$20 9 0$

EE0$10$=0 9 101$0 9 0$1@1$0E0$=2

0 9 2E>$2@

0 9 0$@222$0E0$10 9 2@>$@E0 9 0$@=

>$=

2=$>

E>$>

?$

@Coefficient of 4ariation BC48 A statistical measure of the disersion of data oints in a data series around themean$ The coefficient of variation reresents the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean" and is a measure

of relative disersion used to comare variation in series 'hich differs in magnitude of their averages$

1> Chater 2 ; Climate Current 3aseline and Climate Proections V Government of ArunachalPradesh


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Source8 #D Gridded rainfall data B1?19200

The mean south9'est monsoon BJune" July" August 7 Setem!er rainfall B1@1 mm contri!utesE>$> of annual rainfall B2@1@ mm$ ean monthly rainfall during July B@1 mm is highest andcontri!utes a!out 20$E of annual rainfall$ The mean rainfall during June is slightly lo'er andcontri!utes a!out 1@$0 of annual rainfall$ August and Setem!er rainfall contri!ute 1>$@ and

1=$2 of annual rainfall" resectively$ Contri!ution of re9monsoon Barch" Aril 7 ay rainfall and

ost9monsoon B/cto!er" +ovem!er 7 Decem!er rainfall in annual rainfall is 2=$> and ?$resectively$ Coefficient of variation is higher during the months of +ovem!er" Decem!er" Januaryand e!ruary igure @$

igure @ 8 /!served rainfall Statistics ; Seasonal Average and #nter annual variation

)ain has !een regroued into three !road categories BPattanai& and )aeevan" 2010 for calculatinge$> Y ) Z 12>$>

mm and iii very heavy to e$> mm$ )ainfall [ 12>$> mm isreferred as e

1 Chater 2 ; Climate Current 3aseline and Climate Proections V Government of ArunachalPradesh


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igure 8 /!served rainfall Statistics ; Average and inter annual variation in rainy days

Average num!er of rainydays in the state during

the south 'est monsoon

is a!out ?@ days andvaries from E0 days to@@ days$ Days 'henthere is high rainfallevents range from 1 to

days and similarly thee


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Trend

Average#nter annual variation

BC4

)ange 9 Average B0C

Trend

Average

#nter annual variationBC4

)ange 9 Average B0C

Trend

Average

#nter annual variation

BC4)ange 9 Average B0C

Trend

Average

#nter annual variation

BC4)ange 9 Average B0C

Trend

0$=>

=10$022

2$2 9 =2$>0$=?

=?$?0$01?

=>$@ 9 >0

0$0@=2$

0$02

=1$E 9 =

0$2>

=0$2

0$022

2@$@ 9 =1

0$?2

0$2

1@0$0>?

1E 9 1$E0$=E

2>$0$02=

2$ 9 22$?

0$02>$2

0$01E

22$> 9 2$?

0$2

1$>

0$0>1

1?$2 9 21$>

0$==

%inter BJ

Pre onsoon BA

onsoon BJJAS

Post onsoon B/+D

Source8 #D Gridded temerature data B1E9200

igure 10 8 /!served Temerature Statistics ; Average" inter annual variation and trend

Annual Statistics8

Satial attern of trends inthe mean ma


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Seasonal Statistics8

Average a


61/128



Days 'ith ma


62/128


atmosheric and land surface model of limited area and high resolution 'hich is locata!le over anyart of the glo!e$ P).C#S is the ,adley Centre orta!le regional climate model develoed to run on aPC 'ith a grid resolution of 0$>>Q < 0$>>Q$ ,igh9resolution limited area model is driven at its lateral

and sea9surface !oundaries !y outut from glo!al couled atmoshere9ocean B,adC= and glo!alatmosheric B,adA= general circulation models$ P).C#S catures imortant regional informationon summer monsoon rainfall missing in its arent GC simulations$

#ndian )C P).C#S has !een configured for a domain e


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Change in seasonal rainfall for 20=0s and 20@0s as comared to the !aseline is sho'n in igure 12$

igure 12 8 Climate Change scenario rainfall Statistics ; Average and inter annual variation in rainy days


Season 'ise" decrease in

rainfall is redicted for all

seasons e


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igure 1= 8 Climate Change scenario Temerature Statistics ; Average and inter annual variation


The increase intemerature is sho'n in

!oth to'ards 20=0s and20@0s as comared to the

!aseline$ inimum

temerature is redicted to

00increase !y 1 C to 2$E C 0during 20=0s and !y 2$@

C 9

0[ C during 20@0s

22 Chater 2 ; Climate Current 3aseline and Climate Proections V Government of ArunachalPradesh


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State G,G .mission

Chater =

2= Chater = V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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A greenhouse gas BG,G is a gas in an atmoshere that a!sor!s and emits radiation 'ithin thethermal infrared range$ G,Gs of anthroogenic origin in the atmoshere such as car!on dio$ ,ydro o'ergeneration !y the state utility accounts for a!out @ of the state o'er generation and hasincreased at 1$2 rate er annum since 10 'here as o'er consumtion has increased at around

?$1 rate er annum during the same eriod$ The ga in the o'er generation and consumtion isfulfilled through central o'er suly$ Per caita monthly e also indicates the maor driving forces of non9C/2 emissions 9nitrogenous fertiliHer alication" rice roduction and livestoc& oulation in Arunachal Pradesh$ Ascan !e seen" fertiliHer usage has gro'n at a rate of > er annum against only 0$? and 0$2 gro'thrate of foodgrain and rice roduction resectively$

12

1= #ndia8 Greenhouse Gas .missions 200?" 2010" inistry of .nvironment and orests" Government of #ndia )a'at J$S$" Sharma D$" +imacho' G$" and Dai / B2010" .nergy efficient chulha in rural Arunachal Pradesh$

C*)).+T SC#.+C." 4/-$ @" +/$ 12" 2 J*+. 2010

2> Chater = 9 State G,G .mission V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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igure 1> 8 Thermal o'er generation" consumtion and other driving forces of greenhouse gases in

Arunachal Pradesh

1@0

1200

illion &%h120

@00

>00

0

10 12000

Generation8 Diesel B*tility

Generation8 ,ydro B*tility

Consumtion

200

E0

010 12000200

oodgrain B000 tonnes

oodgrain area so'n B000 ha

)ice B000 tonnes

)ice area so'n B000 ha+9ertiliserused Btonnes

livestoc& B000 num!er

Total @@ t B&ilo or thousand tonnes C/2e BC/2 eMuivalent G,Gs have !een emitted fromArunachal Pradesh during the year 200$ C,> emission contri!utes a!out 1 of the stateOs G,Gemissions follo'ed !y C/2 B>E and +2/ B=$ The trend of G,G emissions and other indicators ofArunachal Pradesh state during 10 to 200 can !e seen from igure 1$ GDP and oulation" the

main driving forces of G,G emissions" have increased at ?$ and 2$= CAG) resectively$ %hile

electricity consumtion and C/2 emissions have increased at ?$1 and =$ CAG) resectively$ Percaita G,G emissions of Arunachal Pradesh are 0$? tonnes" 'hich is Muite lo'er than the nationalaverage of 1$@ ton C/2e er erson$ The state has continuously imroved efficiency of its economyand has reduced G,G intensity of its GDP !y >0 during the same eriod$ igure 1E indicates districtlevel emissions of various greenhouse gases in Arunachal Pradesh$ Paum Pare" -ohit and Changlang

are the three highest C/2 emitting districts during 200$ #n case of C,> and +2/ emissions" fe'highest emitting districts are -ohit" .ast Siang" Paum Pare and Changlang$ ,igher oulation"livestoc& rearing and agricultural activities in these districts are the maor contri!utor to their higheremissions$

2 Chater = 9 State G,G .mission V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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igure 1 )elative increase in GDP" oulation" electricity consumtion and G,G emissions in Arunachal

Pradesh B#nde


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Assessment of e 'aste as 'ell as relative share of source activities in C/2" C,> and +2/ emissions of ArunachalPradesh can !e seen from igure 1?$ A!out of G,G emissions from Arunachal Pradesh comefrom energy category$ This category includes emissions due to fossil fuel and !iomass !urning 'ithino'er lants" manufacturing industries" transort sector and residential sector$ Agriculture sectorcontri!utes a!out ? and = of C,> and +2/ emissions of the state$ aority of C,> emissions

occur from enteric fermentation of livestoc& BE2 follo'ed !y !iomass !urning B21 and manuremanagement B1=$ %hile maority of +2/ emissions occur from !iomass !urning B>@ follo'ed !yorganic nitrogen alied on field B22 and unicial solid 'aste and domestic 'aste 'atertreatment B10$ .ach of Synthetic nitrogen fertiliHer alication and nitrogen from cro residue lefton field contri!ute a!out to +2/ emissions of the state$

igure 1? 8 Sectoral greenhouse gas emissions Be

>1>

C,>

>$E=

1E$2

0$?2

21$E0

+2/

0$01

0$0=

0$010

0$0

C/2e

2?

==

1@

@@Po'er2

#ndustry =@

)esidential

sector 1E

Transort >>

C/2

.ntericfermentation E2

3iomass!urning21

ossil fuelcom!ustion =

/rganic9+alied to the soil 22

Agri$ residue !urning = + from cro residue left

#ndirect +2/ emissions Synthetic fertiliHer used >

3iomass!urning>@

Agri$ residue !urning

1 ossil fuel !urning %aste =0$1

%aste10

anuremanagement 1=

C,> +2/

2? Chater = 9 State G,G .mission V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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Chater > 9 Climate Change #mactsand 4ulnera!ility


A !rief summary of assessment of the imact of roected climate change on 'ater" forest andenergy sectors carried out !y ##T Delhi" ##Sc 3angalore and ## Ahemeda!ad is resented here$

#mact of climate change on 'ater resources of Arunachal Pradesh

ethods and odels8 An assessment of the imact of roected climate change on 'ater resourcesin Arunachal Pradesh is made using the hydrologic model S%AT 1> BSoil and %ater Assessment Tool$The model reMuires information on terrain" soil rofile and landuse of the area as inut 'hich have!een o!tained from the glo!al sources$ These three entities are assumed to !e static for future as

'ell$

The 3rahmautra )iver !asin 'hich has its tri!utaries in Arunachal Pradesh has !een modelled usingthe follo'ing8

Satial data and the source of data used for the study areas include8

XX

XX

Digital .levation odel8 S)T" of 0 m resolution 1

Drainage +et'or& ; ,ydroshed 1E

Soil mas and associated soil characteristics Bsource8 A/ Glo!al soil 1?-and use Bsource8 Glo!al landuse 1@

The ,ydro9eteorological data ertaining to the river !asin reMuired for modelling" includes dailyrainfall" ma


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o.$ or the resent analysis ertains to the modeling of )iver 3rahmautra using the hydrologicmodel S%AT$

The study determines the resent 'ater availa!ility in sace and time 'ithout incororating anyman made changes li&e dams" diversions" etc$ The same frame'or& is then used to redict theimact of climate change on the 'ater resources 'ith the assumtion that the land use shall not

change over time$ A total of 0 years of simulation have !een conductedF =0 years !elonging to #PCCS).S A13 !aseline B3-" =0 years !elong to #PCC S).S A13 near term or mid9century BC climatescenario$

%hile modelling" the river !asin has !een further su!divided into reasona!le siHed su!9!asins so asto account for satial varia!ility of inuts under the !aseline and G,G scenarios$ Detailed analyseshave !een erformed to Muantify the ossi!le imacts on account of the climate change$

Analysis for entire 3rahmautra !asin reveals an increase in the annual reciitation of 2$= for midcentury from the !aseline$ The outcome of the S%AT hydrological modeling has redicted a

conseMuent increase of 'ater yield !y =$ under mid century from !aseline 'ater yield$ Thesituation of the actual evaotransiration is decrease !y @$0 under mid century from the actualevaotransiration under !aseline resectively$ ,o'ever" for the 3rahmautra !asin lying 'ithinArunachal Pradesh" analysis roects a decrease in annual reciitation of a!out to 1 !y mid

century$

Detailed assessment of the different comonents of fresh'ater availa!ility !oth in sace and time iscritical for identifying the vulnera!le regionsLhotsots$ This ena!les a roer develoment Lidentification of the adatation and mitigation strategies in addressing climate change coingmechanisms$ resh'ater comonents i$e$" !lue 'ater flo' Bi$e$" 'ater yield lus dee aMuifer

recharge" green 'ater flo' Bi$e$" actual evaotransiration" and green 'ater storage Bi$e$" soil'ater has !een estimated at a su!9!asin level 'ith daily 'eather data for 3rahmautra !asin under!aseline as 'ell as G,G scenarios Bigure 1@$ This deiction is imortant in understanding thegeneral availa!ility of !lue and green 'ater across the !asin$ The change in !lue 'ater availa!ilitysho' satial variation from marginal reduction B to no change across the state to'ards 20=0s$The green 'ater flo' also sho's increase !ut the magnitude is marginal under mid century as

comared to !aseline$ The situation of Green 'ater storage sho's no change from the !aselineunder mid century scenario$ The green 'ater storage can otentially !enefit the agriculture inmonths 'ith little or no reciitation$ This information is Muite helful in lanning croing seasonand hels to model scenarios of changing croing seasons and atterns and arriving at aroriateadatation measures$

=0 Chater > 9 Climate Change #macts and 4ulnera!ility V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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igure 1@ 8 Change in Annual !lue and green 'ater availa!ility to'ards 20=0s 'ith resect to 1?0s B#PCC

S).S A13 scenario in Arunachal Pradesh



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#mact of climate change on forests of Arunachal Pradesh

ethods and odels8 An assessment of the imact of roected climate change on forestecosystems in Arunachal Pradesh is made using the follo'ing8

X

XXX

Climate imact modelF glo!al dynamic vegetation model #3#S

Climate change scenarioF A13 scenarioPeriod of assessmentF short9term B20219200 eriod$#nut dataF monthly mean cloudiness B" monthly mean reciitation rate B mmLday"monthly mean relative humidity B" monthly minimum" ma 'ill!e imacted !y climate change$ The distri!ution of forested grids roected to !e imacted !yclimate change is resented in igure 1 for 20=0s$ A change in forest tyes is roected in thenorthern region of *er Siang district" 'estern region of Di!ang 4alley" southern %est Siang and'estern region of urung umey districts$ Thus the !iodiversity rich districts of Arunachal Pradeshare roected to !e adversely imacted !y climate change !y 20=0s$

igure 1 8 orest vegetation change roected !y 20=0s under A13 scenario in Arunachal Pradesh

2==@2EE

==1

Total num!er of forest grids+um!er of grids roected to !e affected in 20=+um!er of grids not affected in 20=

20

oley" J$ A$" #$ C$ Prentice" +$ )aman&utty" S$ -evis" D$ Pollard" S$ Sitch" and A$ ,a" E0=9E2@$



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Present Policies 7 Programs and -in&ages 'ith +APCC

Chater

== Chater V Government of Arunachal Pradesh


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Chater 9 Present Policies 7 Programsand -in&ages 'ith +APCC


At the national level" the integration of climate change in national develoment is guided !y thePrime inisterOs Council on Climate Change" 'hich includes reresentation of &ey inistries" as 'ell

as e


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+ational ission for Sustaina!le Agriculture aims to suort climate adatation in agriculture

through the develoment of climate resilient cros and aroriate agricultural ractices

+ational ission on Strategic no'ledge for Climate Change is for gaining a !etter understanding

of climate science" imacts and challenges$ #t envisions imroved climate modeling and increasedinternational colla!oration to develo adatation and mitigation technologies$

-in&ages 'ith +APCC

As a follo' u to the Prime inisterOs Action Plan for com!ating the imacts of climate change

several stes have !een ta&en !y the Government of Arunachal Pradesh$

%ater ission 9 .


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Sustaina!le Agriculture ission and ,orticulture 9 .


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Arunachal Pradesh SAPCC

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