ARPA-E, Tue Mar 1, 2011 Arati Prabhakar’s Panel on ......ARPA-E, Tue Mar 1, 2011 Arati Prabhakar’s Panel on Efficiency and Profitability Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Former Commissioner

ARPA-E, Tue Mar 1, 2011 Arati Prabhakar’s Panel on Efficiency and Profitability

Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Former Commissioner

California Energy Commission.

Distinguished Scientist Emeritus Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.

[email protected] 510 495-2227

Presentation available at www.ArtRosenfeld.org

Energy Intensity (E/GDP) in the US 1949 - 2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

1949

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

year

E/

GD

P =

th

ou

san

d B

tu/

$ (

in $

20

00

)

Actual 1972 - 2007 Intensity drops at 2% per year

If Intensity dropped at pre-1973 levels of 0.4% per year

Actual Energy Costs: 9% of GDP in 2007 =$1.2 Trillion

15% of GDP in 2007 =$2.1 TrillionOPEC Embargo

Oil Price Collapse

2007 GDP = $14 Trillion($2007)

E/G

DP

= th

ousa

nd B

tu/$

(in

$200

0)

1970, First Earth Day

[email protected] or [email protected] 2

3

Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,00019

60

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

United States

California

Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $1975 2005 % change

US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94%Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79%

2005 Differences = 5,300kWh/yr = $165/capita

4 Source: David Goldstein, NRDC, SF

New United States Refrigerator Use v. Time and Retail Prices

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Ave

rage

Ene

rgy

Use

or P

rice

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ref

riger

ator

vol

ume

(cub

ic fe

et)

Energy Use per Unit(kWh/Year)

Refrigerator Size (cubic ft)

Refrigerator Price in 1983 $

$ 1,270

$ 462

5

Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,00019

75

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

GW

h/ye

ar

Appliance Standards

Building Standards

Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of

~1% of electric bill

~15% of Annual Electricity Use in California in 2003

6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

3 Gorges 三峡

Refrigerators 冰箱

Air Conditioners 空调

TWh

2000 Stds

2000 Stds

2005 Stds

2005 Stds

If Energy Star

If Energy Star

TWH

/Yea

r

1.5

4.5

6.0

3.0

7.5

Valu

e (b

illio

n $/

year

)

Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements

Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL

Value of TWh

3 Gorges 三峡

Refrigerators 冰箱

Air Conditioners

空调

Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh

Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh

三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比

标准生效后，10年节约电量

7

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150 19

70

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

mill

ion

Btu

Per

Per

son

set t

o 19

70

leve

ls

CA vs US Energy Consumption Per Capita

CA US w/o CA

8

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

kWh

per P

erso

n

CA vs US Electricity Consumption Per Capita

CA US w/o CA

9

Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances

Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE,

in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org

75%

60%

25% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100 110

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year

Inde

x (1

972

= 10

0)

Effective Dates of National Standards = Effective Dates of State Standards =

Refrigerators

Central A/C

Gas Furnaces

SEER = 13

10

Air Conditioning Energy Use in Single Family Homes in PG&E The effect of AC Standards (SEER) and Title 24 standards

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Ann

ual k

Wh

per n

ew h

ome

for c

entr

al A

C

If only increases in house size -- no efficiency gainsChange due to SEER improvementsSEER plus Title 24

11

United States Refrigerator Use, repeated, to compare with Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time

0 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Aver

age

Ene

rgy

Use

per

Uni

t Sol

d (k

Wh

per

year

)

Refrigerator Use per Unit 1978 Cal Standard

1990 Federal Standard

1987 Cal Standard 1980 Cal Standard

1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal

Standard

Estimated Standby Power (per house)

2007 STD.

The residential energy consumption due to televisions rapidly increased from 3-4% in 1990s to 8-10% in 2008. Television energy will grow up to 18% by 2023 without regulations. The projected growth does not include the residential energy use by cable boxes, DVD players, internet boxes, Blue Ray, game consoles etc.

Televisions Represent Significant Energy Use

0  

2,000  

4,000  

6,000  

8,000  

10,000  

12,000  

14,000  

16,000  

18,000  

20,000  

1975   1979   1983   1987   1991   1995   1999   2003   2007   2011   2015   2019   2023   2027  

GWh/yr  

Year  

California  Energy  Consump7on  from  TVs    (Forecast  with  and  without  proposed  standards)  

With  a  Title  20  Standard  

no  standard  

Tier 2 Tier 1

10%  of  Res.  Use  in  2007  

12

CEC Tier 1 (Effective 1/1/2011)

CEC Tier 2 (Effective 1/1/2013)

25" 32" 37" 42" 50"

CEC Max Screen Area (1400 in2 or ~57.4 diagonal inches)

Energy Star 3.0 TVs (10/2/09)

0

100

200

300

400

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

On

Mod

e Po

wer

(W)

Screen Area (square inches)

TV Power Consumption Levels

Technically Feasible Standards

Each point may represent several TV models

*Consumers can expect to save between $ 50 - $ 250 over the life of their TV *A 50 inch plasma can consume as little as 307 kWh/yr and as much as 903 kWh/yr 13

General Purpose Lighting – Proposed Regulations (cont.)

Rated  Lumens  Range Maximum  rated  Wa2age

Minimum  Rated  Life  Time

Proposed  California  

Effective  Date1490-‐‑2600  Lumens 100à72  Wa3s 1,000  hours Jan,  1,  20111050-‐‑1489Lumens 75à53  Wa3s 1,000  hours Jan  1,  2012750-‐‑1049  Lumens 60à43  Wa3s 1,000  hours Jan  1,  2013310-‐‑749  Lumens 40à29  Wa3s 1,000  hours Jan  1,  2013

Proposed Table K-8: Standards for State-regulated General Services Incandescent Lamps -Tier I

Lumens  Range Maximum  Lamp  Efficacy

Minimum  Rated  Life  Time

Proposed  California  

Effective  DateAll 45  lumens  per  wa3 1,000  hours Jan,  1,  2018

Proposed Table K-9: Standards for State-regulated General Services Lamps -Tier II

Abatement cost

White roofs to cool your buildings, your cities, and

(this is new) to cool the earth.

16

17 17

Summer in the city

17

summer urban heat island

18 18

Bird’s eye view of urban land use

Tree Cover 13%

Sidewalk 5%

Barren Land 8%

Misc. 6%

Road 22%

Parking Area 12%

Grass 15%

Roof 19%

Area by Land-Cover Category Above the Canopy

~ 1 km2!

The  surface  of  Sacramento,  CA  is  about  

•   20%  roofs  •   30%  vegeta7on  •   40%  pavement  

18

Chicago Heat Wave 1995, 739 Deaths

Virtually all of the deaths occurred on the top floors of buildings with black roofs

19

20 20

ReflecCve  roofs  stay  cooler  in  the  sun  

50  

40  

30  

20  

10  

0  

0.0   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.8   1.0  

Tempe

rature  Rise  (°C)  

Galvanized Steel

IR-‐Refl.  Black  

Black  Pa

int  

Green  Asph

alt  S

hingle  

Red  Clay  Tile  

Lt.  R

ed  Paint  

Lt.  G

reen

 Paint  

Whi

te A

spha

lt Sh

ingl

e

Al R

oof C

oat.

Opt

ical

Whi

te

Whi

te P

aint

Whi

te C

emen

t Coa

t.

Solar  Absorptance  

21 21

White  roofs  are  popular  in  Tucson,  AZ  

21

22 22

Washington,  DC  (Federal)  has  problems  

22

23 23 23

Pentagon

Cooling our planet

European Heat Wave 2003, 30,000 Deaths France July 2010, Few Deaths

25

26

White roofs, cool-colored roofs save money

flat,  white  

pitched,  white  

pitched,  cool  &  colored  

OLD   NEW  

AC  savings  ≈  15%  

AC  savings  ≈  10%  

AC  savings  ≈  5%  

White roofs around the world

28 28

…in  Santorini,  Greece  

28

29 29

…in  Hyderabad,  India  

…and  widely  in  the  state  of  Gujarat,  India.  

29

30 30

Walmart  store  in  northern  California  

30

31 31

CongratulaCons  to  UC  Davis  

31

32 32

Solar-‐reflecCve  surfaces  cool  the  globe  via  “negaCve  radiaCve  forcing”  

Source:  Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate  Change  (IPCC)  

32

33 33

GLOBAL  COOLING:  making  100  m2  (1000  [2)  of  gray  roofing  white  offsets  the  emission  of  10  t  of  CO2  

34

How much CO2 equivalent is offset if we whiten all eligible urban flat roofs world-

wide? (i/ii) • Answer:  24  Gigatonnes  (Gt)  

– 2/3  of  a  year’s  worldwide  emission  – Gigatonne  =  billion  metric  tons  

• If  implemented  over  20  years  (the  life  of  a  roof  or  a  program)  this  is  ≈  1.2  Gt/year.  

35

How much CO2 equivalent is offset if we whiten all eligible urban flat roofs world-wide? (ii/ii)

•  Offset  is  equivalent  to  taking  300  million  cars  off  the  road  for  20  years.    – There  are  about  600  million  passenger  cars  world  wide,  and  they  each  emit  ≈  4  t  CO2/year.  

36

37

Progress in energy efficiency standards

•  In  2005,  California’s  “Title  24”  energy  efficiency  standards  prescribed  white  surfaces  for  low-‐sloped  roofs  on  commercial  buildings.  Several  hot  states  are  following.  

•  In  2008,  California  prescribed  “cool  colored”  surfaces  for  steep  residenCal  roofs  in  its  5  hofest  climate  zones.  

•  Other  U.S.  states  &  all  countries  with  hot  summers  should  follow.    

38

Recent cool roof progress (2005 – 2011) •  2005

–  California Title 24 – “Flat roofs shall be white” (15 out of 16 climate zones). Walmart adopts white roofs for ALL stores.

–  EPA ENERGY STAR lists Cool Roof Materials •  2010

–  June 1st, 2010 – Memo from U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu calls for all DOE Buildings to have white roofs, if cost-effective

–  June 16th, 2010 – Marine Corp follows suit, Pentagon following slowly –  June 19th, 2010 – RetroFIT Philly announces winner of “coolest block”

contest to white-coat black roofs of row houses.

•  2011 –  100 Cool Cities launched – see www.WhiteRoofsAlliance.org –  Spring 2011 – US will launch, at G20 Energy Ministers meeting, a

voluntary Cool Roofs initiative and may even offer technical assistance to developing countries who join early.

To come 2012…

•  Model codes will be modified to prescribe “flat roofs shall be white” –  ASHRAE for commercial buildings –  EECC for residential buildings

•  But states and cities have to adopt model codes

39

40

Global Cool Cities Alliance could unite many initiatives and trade associations

41

Resources on the web

•  Art  Rosenfeld’s  website  –  ArtRosenfeld.org  

•  Cool  Colors  Project  –  CoolColors.LBL.gov  

•  Heat  Island  Group  –  HeatIsland.LBL.gov    

•  Cool  Communi7es  Project  –  CoolCommuni7es.LBL.gov    

•  Roof  Savings  Calculator  –  RoofCalc.com    

•  Global  Cool  Ci7es  Alliance  −  GlobalCoolCi7esAlliance.org  

•  Cool  Roof  Ra7ng  Council  −  CoolRoofs.org  

•  Cool  California  –  CoolCalifornia.org  

•  EPA  Heat  Islands  –  epa.gov/hea7sland  

•  Energy  Star  Cool  Roofs  –  EnergyStar.gov  

February 2011