Arlington Public Schools Capacity Planning Study – Final Report MGT of America, Inc. December 3, 2009
Jan 05, 2016
Arlington Public SchoolsCapacity Planning Study – Final Report
MGT of America, Inc.December 3, 2009
Agenda for Tonight
What we did
What we learned
What we concluded
Your Team – Some Friendly Faces
Your Team –Dr. Bill Carnes – Partner-in-ChargeDan Schmidt – Project DirectorDr. Ed HumbleLynda FenderKaren GohlsenLani ColleySusan DrattloGreg Nichols
MGT of America has offices in:Olympia, WA
Sacramento, CAAustin, TX
Tallahassee, FLWashington, D.C.
Schmidt Associates – an Indiana-based facility planning,
design, and construction management firm
MGT and Schmidt have teamed for projects in:- St. Louis Public Schools, MO- State of Colorado- Rapid City Area Schools, SD- Fort Wayne Community Schools, IN- MSD of Decatur Township, IN- The Public Schools of Brookline, MA- Smyth County Public Schools, VA- Vigo County School Corporation, IN- Porter Township Schools, IN- Fresno Unified School District, CA- State of Wyoming- Citrus County Public Schools, FL- Boulder Public Schools, CO- Ann Arundel Public Schools, MD- Indianapolis Public Schools, IN
Let’s begin at the end…
YOU ARE CROWDED!
What we did…
It was a busy three months!
TaskWk of
9/7Wk of 9/14
Wk of 9/21
Wk of 9/28
Wk of 10/5
Wk of 10/12
Wk of 10/19
Wk of 10/26
Wk of 11/2
Wk of 11/9
Wk of 11/16
Wk of 11/23
Project Initiation Input Gathering
Facility Tours
Data Analysis
Framework Development Final Report Preparation
Over the last three months we…
Toured every school in the Division
Gained an understanding of the programs offered across the Division and in each building
Met with Division staff to review data and previous reports
Met with county officials to discuss growth in the county
Conducted a community meeting
Met with the Projections/Capacity Subcommittee of the Facilities Advisory Council
Counted the instructional spaces in each school
Calculated the capacity of each school as it is currently used
Validated the Division’s capacity calculation methodology
Studied demographic and enrollment trends
Prepared enrollment projections
Validated the Division’s enrollment projection methodology
Analyzed the current and projected utilization of each school and grade band
Identified possible solutions to crowding issues
Created a framework for making capacity decisions
Developed a Flash media presentation to explain the framework
Prepared the final report for your consideration
Over the last three months we also…
What we learned…
Your enrollment is expected to continue to increase.
WEIGHTING FACTORSModel Weight
Average Percentage Growth 13% Students Per Household 25% Cohort Survival 50% Linear Regression 13%
You are already crowded…
Model Grade Band Capacity 09 - 10 10 - 11 11 - 12 12 - 13 13 - 14 14 - 15 15 - 16 16 - 17 17 - 18 18 - 19 19 - 20
MGT Enrollment Projections
Elementary 10,738
11,454
11,791
12,009
12,074
12,149
11,982
11,854
11,869
11,920
12,015
Middle 3,920
4,318
4,414
4,578
4,688
4,831
4,978
4,952
4,825
4,669
4,627
High 5,575
5,979
6,080
6,154
6,210
6,340
6,474
6,578
6,686
6,931
6,980
Current Use Model
Elementary 11,166 96% 103% 106% 108% 108% 109% 107% 106% 106% 107% 108%
Middle 4,253 92% 102% 104% 108% 110% 114% 117% 116% 113% 110% 109%
High 5,371 104% 111% 113% 115% 116% 118% 121% 122% 124% 129% 130%
.…and you will continue to be crowded in the future.
What we concluded…
Your methodologies are sound.
Your capacity calculation methodology is similar to ours.
Your enrollment projection methodology is a standard and accepted practice across the country and has proven effective.
We see what you see…you are crowded.
Agenda for Tonight
What we did
What we learned
What we concluded
So…now what?
The Six Strategies(for addressing crowding issues)
Changing the delivery, location, or number of programs
Changing enrollment practices
Adding physical capacity
Changing grade configuration
Changing the master schedule
Increasing class size
MGT of America, Inc.
Thank you!