ARinAction Conference presentation @NYU June 6, 2017

The Developing Market For Consumer AR

Charlie FinkContributor, Forbes.com

Contributing Editor, VR Voice

About Me

• Contributor, Forbes and other publications 2016-7

• Entrepreneur & Producer 05-16

• President, AG Interactive 00-04

• SVP, America Online 95-99

• EVP, COO, Virtual World Entertainment 92-95

• VP, Disney 85-92

Things I Know Are True

• AR and VR Represent a Major Paradigm Shift in Computing

• Technology succeeds when it makes what we are already doing better, cheaper and faster

• The killer app is other people

• Everyone overestimates the short term and underestimates the long term

• Change happens very, very slowly, and then all at once

The Problem We Are Trying to Solve

Requires A Revolution In Computing

• Microsoft – Hololens, Microsoft MR

• Apple – iPhone 8 AR, iGlass

• Facebook – Rift, Oculus Store

• Google – Cardboard, Daydream, Stand Alone VR (Tango/World Sense)

• Samsung –Gear VR

• Sony - Playstation VR

The Big Guys Are Making Bets

VR And AR Have Very Different Goals

• AR Seeks To Enhance The World• Help us do what we are doing better, faster, simpler• End the slavery of screens

• VR Seeks to Replace The World• 360 Video• A New Digital Reality

Immersion and Presence

Immersion

Presence

Free Roam VRTango Phone ViveHololens RiftMeta2 ODG R8

Three Kinds of AR• Current Smart Phones

• Filters

• Enhanced 3D Handheld• Depth sensing, multiple cameras

• Snapdragon, Tango

• Pixel, Lenovo Phones

• Headmounted AR• Hololens (Holographic Computing)

• ODG

• Meta

Wild Cards• Magic Leap

• Disruptive tech

• Apple AR• Hand held (Definitely)

• Wearable (Probably)

• Microsoft • Windows MR (end of Q3)

• The dark horse(s) • Meta, ODG

Markets for Consumer Tech Are Driven by Killer Apps

• Personal Computer• Online Services (email)

• Shopping

• Social Media

• Smart Phones• Messaging

• Photography

• Maps

• Music/Media

AR’s Killer Apps?

• Things we can do better without screens• Directions

• Messaging

• Media

• New things we can do• Spatial Mapping

• Telepresence

• Object Recognition

• Facial Recognition

• Remote Experts

Challenges

• Cost

• Ease of Use

• Field of View

• Optical System

• Apps/Ecosystem

• Input (Voice, Bluetooth, Haptics)

• Battery Life/Heat Management

• Style

Enterprise Goes First

• Military

• Design & Construction

• Industrial Maintenance • Remote Experts

• Medical• Monitor Consolidation

• Heads Up Display

• Tele surgery

• Sales & Marketing

I wish I knew when the great consumer product is going to ship.

Robert Scoble, AWE 2017 Keynote

AR For Now: Enhanced Mobile• Spatial Mapping, Depth (SLAM)

• Google Tango • Enables New & Improved Apps

• Filters• Snap, Facebook, Lumyer, Masqurade, MS Creator

• Toys• Holotats• Holocube• Hologrid Monster

• Games• PokemonGO• Phantogeist

Wearable Computing On Market 2017

• Hololens - $3,000 developer edition, available now

• ODG R-8 – Under $1,000, Consumer Offered by Megu (China) Q4

• Meta 2 – $1,000 developer edition, available now

• Google Standalone VR (HTC, Lenovo) - >$500, Q4

• Kopin, Epson, Lenovo – Enterprise Focused

• Zapbox Cardboard - $50

Roadmap for Wearable Consumer VR To Reach Inflection Point

• Cost, Ease of Use• Plug and Play

• Killer Apps• Communications/Telepresence

• Technical Solutions

• Haptics (touch)

• Fashion

Predictions for June, 2018

•Neither VR nor AR will hit an inflection point

•More phones VR & AR Capable

•Apple AR in iPhone 8 • iGlasses: a wearable for 2019

•Magic Leap Comes Out•Ships Developer Version?

Predictions for June, 2028

• Wearable computing commonplace

• All laptops and cell phones VR/AR Ready

• The Killer App will be telepresence (social)

• Tele Conferences & Tele Education

• Second most popular VR app: casual game Westword

• Automated Trucks, Cars, Robots Common• Automation, AI cause mass unemployment

• Wealth gap increases to historic levels

• Medicare for all will pass the Congress

Thank You! @charliefink

CharlieFink.com