Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Bernard I. Finel and Christine Dehn American.

Are We Winning?

AN INTERIM REPORT

vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer AmericaApril 29, 2009

Bernard I. Finel and Christine Dehn

American Security Project

Are We Winning? Outline

March 2008 Update

• Attacks by Islamist Groups• Pakistan• Assessing the “Obama Effect”• The Impact of the Financial Crisis• Conclusions• Questions


Are We Winning?AN INTERIM REPORT

Key Numbers?

March 2008 Update

“When President Bush left office on Tuesday, America marked 2,688 days without a terrorist attack on its soil.”

--Marc A. Thiessen, the Washington Post, January 22, 2009.

“When President Clinton left office on January 20, 2001, America marked 2,890 days without a [foreign] terrorist attack on its soil.”

--Bernard I. Finel, Today



Progress in Iraq

• Violence in Iraq has declined significantly, though attacks by Islamist groups remain significant.• Recent uptick in suicide attacks troubling. • It remains unclear whether improvements in Iraq will persist as U.S. drawdowns continue.•Regardless, improvements in Iraq has little demonstrable relationship to the broader threat posed by radical Islamist groups.

March 2008 Updatevision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer AmericaApril 29, 2009


Attacks by Jihadists: Increasing Elsewhere

March 2008 Update

• Islamist attacks around the world continue to increase.• Trendline shows nearly constant increase over the past four year.•Attacks now occur at roughly triple the rate of 2005. At least six times the rates of the 2002-2003 period. And more than ten times as many as in the late 1990s.•Casualties have flattened out and the range of casualties per incident has become more consistent. It is not clear whether this is due to random variation or whether it reflects some change in the institutional capacity of Islamist terrorist groups.



Attacks by Islamist Extremists



Increase in attacks driven by developments in Pakistan, Somalia, Russia, and the Philippines.

Hot Spots



Importance of Violent Islamists



Pakistan Developments

March 2008 Update

•Pakistani Taliban power has become institutionalized in Swat Valley.•Islamist military activity is getting closer to the capital.•The Pakistani army and intelligence services remain surprising passive in the face of the growing threat.•Pakistani intelligence continues to maintain ties with radical Islamist groups.

• The situation in Pakistan may already be irretrievable.



Trends in Public Attitudes: Good News …

March 2008 Update

•The vast majority of Muslim reject terrorism as a tactic.

•The trends in this indicator remain positive, with the notable except of Pakistan.



Trends in Public Attitudes: …and Bad News

March 2008 Update

•Many Muslims remain skeptical of American motives.

•There is no solid evidence that the “Obama effect” has significantly altered Muslim views of the United States. The “Gaza effect” may have overridden initial optimism.

•Poll results remain paradoxical.



Financial Crisis

March 2008 Update

• The Middle East and North Africa have been less affected by the global economic downturn than most regions.

•World Bank predicts a 3.3% economic growth rate for the region in 2009 and 5.2% in 2010.

•These growth rates are at the lower limit of what is required for social stability.



Conclusions

March 2008 Update

• Progress in Iraq is not translating into success in combating the global Islamist threat.• Terrorist attacks by Islamist groups continue to increase at a rapid pace.• Developments in Pakistan are frightening.•The financial crisis is likely to have a limited impact on the Muslim world.



For additional information and research visit:

www.americansecurityproject.org



Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Bernard I. Finel and Christine Dehn American.

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