The Labor Market Situation in April Office of Economic Policy May 5, 2014 Dr. Jennifer Hunt Deputy Assistant Secretary, Microeconomic Policy
Nov 28, 2014
The Labor Market Situation in April
Office of Economic PolicyMay 5, 2014
Dr. Jennifer HuntDeputy Assistant Secretary, Microeconomic Policy
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Payroll survey: exceeded high expectations
1-month change, in thousands• April 2014
273• March 2014
202• February 2014
20112-month change, in thousands
• April 2013 to 2014:
2,373• Average:
198
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Previous months revised +36,000The longer trend still shows steady growth
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Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS
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No discrepancy CES versus CPS employment
Looks big in raw data, but no real discrepancy– CES +288,000– CPS -73,000– CPS adjusted to CES concepts +267,000
Multiple job holders +95,000– Counted as extra jobs in CES but not CPS
Self-employment -91,000– Counted in CPS but not covered in CES
So no reason to doubt the CPS employment-population ratio
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Employment growth by super-sector this month
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
1.0%
0.1%
-0.4%
-0.1% -3
-2
6
9
11
12
15
15
16
28
32
35
40
75
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Information
Utilities
Financial Activities
Mining and Logging*
Transportation and Warehousing
Manufacturing
Government
Other Services*
Wholesale Trade*
Leisure and Hospitality
Construction*
Retail Trade*
Education and Health Services*
Professional and Business Services*
Over-the-month employment change, April 2013, seasonally adjusted, in thousands
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, bls.gov/ces*denotes significance
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Unemployment rate fell significantly…
April 2014 6.3%
March 2014 6.7%
February 20146.7%
April 2013 7.5%
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Long-term unemployment rate ticked down, but remains double pre-recession average
April 2014: 2.2%
March 2014: 2.4%
February 2014:2.5%
April 2013: 2.8%
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…employment rate held steady
April 2014: 58.9%
March 2014: 58.9%
February 2014:58.8%
April 2013: 58.6%
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LFP fell, but essentially flat over past 7 months (lowest since 1978, tied with October & December 2013)
April 2014: 62.8%
March 2014: 63.2%
February 2014:63.0%
April 2013: 63.4%
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Not in Labor Force+988,000
Employed-73,000
Unemployed-733,000
Not in Labor Force84,988,000
Employed139,752,000
Unemployed5,636,000
Fewer people entered the labor force
1,84
3,00
0 4,112,000
2,30
0,00
0 3,587,000
2,548,000
2,257,000
net other 15,000 net other 110,000
net other -6,000
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Specifically, fewer people entered unemployment
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Summary of month
Rapid growth in number of payroll jobs
But many went to people who already had one job
And payroll misses decline in self-employed
Which is how can find no change in the CPS e-pop ratio
Flows from out of the labor force into both unemployment and employment were low this month– These data are quite noisy, however
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Employment growth in recovery is in low-wage jobs
Thank you!
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Employment growth by super-sector over the year
3.6%
2.9%
1.6%
2.2%
3.3%
2.2%
2.3%
0.8%
1.0%
0.7%
5.7%
-0.4%
0.0%
-1.2% -32
-6
-2
49
53
54
99
105
126
189
327
327
412
666
-75 0 75 150 225 300 375 450 525 600 675
Information
Government
Utilities
Mining and Logging
Financial Activities
Other Services
Manufacturing
Transportation and Warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Retail Trade
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional and Business Services
Over-the-year employment change, April 2013 to April 2014, seasonally adjusted, in thousands
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, bls.gov/cesin thousands
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Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough