April 2020 Enrollment Update and Blueprint APS Charge 2€¦ · Traditional APS Middle School Monthly Enrollment (2015-16 to 2019-20) 2015-16 Change Since Oct Ct 2016-17 Change Since

April 2020 Enrollment Update and Blueprint APS Charge 2

Presented by:

David Schoenhals, Blueprint APS Project Manager and

Josh Hensley, Planning Coordinator

Date: May 12, 2020

Every Student Shapes a Successful Future1

Every Student Shapes a Successful Future

Presentation Purpose

Why is this topic on the board agenda?

To provide the Board of Education and update on enrollment and Blueprint APS

Charge 2

What are we asking the board to do with this information?

Information only

How is this linked to the Strategic Plan, Vision, Mission, Goals & Core Beliefs?

All students must have equitable access to learning opportunities, technology

and environments that support them in reaching their full potential.

Community partnerships provide vital resources and opportunities for students

and families.

Which Board policy does your presentation address?

Section F – Facilities Planning and Development2


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2020-21

Projection

ES 16,882 16,235 15,084 14,200 13,954 13,331

Change -647 -1,151 -884 -246 -623

Percent Change -3.83% -7.09% -5.86% -1.73% -4.46%

MS 7,705 7,558 7,394 7,329 7,268 7,122

Change -147 -164 -65 -61 -146

Percent Change -1.91% -2.17% -0.88% -0.83% -2.01%

HS 9,947 10,071 9,873 9,572 9,574 9,475

Change 124 -198 -301 2 -99

Percent Change 1.25% -1.97% -3.05% 0.02% -1.03%

Total 34,534 33,864 32,351 31,101 30,796 29,928

Change -670 -1,513 -1,250 -305 -868

Percent Change -1.94% -4.47% -3.86% -0.98% -2.82%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2020-21

Projection

ES 2,808 2,869 3,453 3,519 3,686 3,793

Change 61 584 66 167 107

Percent Change 2.17% 20.36% 1.91% 4.75% 2.90%

MS 1,131 1,180 1,215 1,401 1,704 2,010

Change 49 35 186 303 306

Percent Change 4.33% 2.97% 15.31% 21.63% 17.96%

HS 339 350 355 293 440 573

Change 11 5 -62 147 133

Percent Change 3.24% 1.43% -17.46% 50.17% 30.23%

Total 4,278 4,399 5,023 5,213 5,830 6,376

Change 121 624 190 617 546

Percent Change 2.83% 14.19% 3.78% 11.84% 9.37%

Charter Historical and Projected K-12 Enrollment

Traditional Historical and Projected K-12 Enrollment

3


2015-16Change Since

Oct Ct2016-17

Change Since Oct Ct

2017-18Change

Since Oct Ct2018-19

Change Since Oct Ct

2019-20Change

Since Oct Ct

October 34,534 33,864 32,351 31,101 30,796November 34,382 -152 33,687 -177 32,296 -55 31,028 -73 30,687 -109December 34,242 -292 33,610 -254 32,079 -272 30,928 -173 30,670 -126

January 34,259 -275 33,647 -217 32,098 -253 30,983 -118 30,499 -297February 34,169 -365 33,600 -264 32,049 -302 30,974 -127 30,390 -406

March 34,125 -409 33,508 -356 31,920 -431 30,919 -182 30,362 -434April 34,128 -406 33,533 -331 31,871 -480 30,973 -128 30,363 -433May 34,011 -523 33,462 -402 31,822 -529 30,931 -170 -30,796

Traditional APS K-12 Monthly Enrollment (2015-16 to 2019-20)


Traditional APS Elementary School Monthly Enrollment (2015-16 to 2019-20)

2015-16Change

Since Oct Ct2016-17

Change Since Oct Ct

2017-18Change

Since Oct Ct2018-19

Change Since Oct Ct

2019-20Change

Since Oct Ct

October 16,882 16,235 15,084 14,200 13,954November 16,856 -26 16,158 -77 15,103 19 14,208 8 13,989 35December 16,814 -68 16,155 -80 15,036 -48 14,214 14 14,006 52

January 16,829 -53 16,259 24 15,069 -15 14,281 81 13,992 38February 16,821 -61 16,254 19 15,087 3 14,339 139 13,998 44

March 16,836 -46 16,226 -9 15,036 -48 14,352 152 14,007 53April 16,863 -19 16,266 31 15,031 -53 14,409 209 14,015 61May 16,809 -73 16,225 -10 15,002 -82 14,401 201 -13,954

Traditional APS Middle School Monthly Enrollment (2015-16 to 2019-20)

2015-16Change

Since Oct Ct2016-17

Change Since Oct Ct

2017-18Change

Since Oct Ct2018-19

Change Since Oct Ct

2019-20Change

Since Oct Ct

October 7,705 7,558 7,394 7,329 7,268November 7,707 2 7,556 -2 7,432 38 7,345 16 7,277 9December 7,664 -41 7,536 -22 7,409 15 7,326 -3 7,273 5

January 7,686 -19 7,573 15 7,425 31 7,371 42 7,256 -12February 7,693 -12 7,584 26 7,429 35 7,368 39 7,224 -44

March 7,701 -4 7,582 24 7,412 18 7,352 23 7,218 -50April 7,699 -6 7,578 20 7,410 16 7,380 51 7,229 -39May 7,675 -30 7,567 9 7,406 12 7,369 40 -7,268

Traditional APS High School Monthly Enrollment (2015-16 to 2019-20)

2015-16Change

Since Oct Ct2016-17

Change Since Oct Ct

2017-18Change

Since Oct Ct2018-19

Change Since Oct Ct

2019-20Change

Since Oct Ct

October 9,947 10,071 9,873 9,572 9,574November 9,819 -128 9,973 -98 9,761 -112 9,475 -97 9,421 -153December 9,764 -183 9,919 -152 9,634 -239 9,388 -184 9,391 -183

January 9,744 -203 9,815 -256 9,604 -269 9,331 -241 9,251 -323February 9,655 -292 9,762 -309 9,533 -340 9,267 -305 9,168 -406

March 9,588 -359 9,700 -371 9,472 -401 9,215 -357 9,137 -437April 9,566 -381 9,689 -382 9,430 -443 9,184 -388 9,119 -455May 9,527 -420 9,670 -401 9,414 -459 9,161 -411 -9,574

5


Schools Above 15 Students from October Count 2019-20

to April 27, 2020

Schools Below 15 Studentsfrom October Count 2019-20

to April 27, 2020Vista PEAK Exploratory P-8 18 Aurora Central HS -156

Hinkley HS -93Gateway HS -89Rangeview HS -56Vista PEAK Preparatory HS -48Mrachek MS -47Iowa ES -22

Possible factors that may result in additional enrollment decline:

• Families leaving APS and the Denver metro area because of large number of workers in industries impacted by layoffs and because of housing affordability

• Fewer families moving into Colorado and the Denver metro area as a result of a depressed job market

• Significant decline in new residential development

• More families choosing multi-district online and home school programs after exposure to these learning environments and fear of sending kids to physical schools



178

402

614

649

1,216

1,351

1,388

1,915

1,993

4,376

4,513

4,599

5,128

5,749

5,984

6,217

6,298

6,697

7,036

7,260

8,824

9,228

15,435

17,046

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations

Law enforcement workers including supervisors

Legal occupations

Life, physical, and social science occupations

Community and social service occupations

Firefighting and prevention, and other protective service workers including supervisors

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations

Architecture and engineering occupations

Personal care and service occupations

Computer and mathematical occupations

Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations

Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations

Educational instruction, and library occupations

Healthcare support occupations

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations

Transportation occupations

Material moving occupations

Management occupations

Business and financial operations occupations

Production occupations

Food preparation and serving related occupations

Sales and related occupations

Construction and extraction occupations

Office and administrative support occupations

Total Occupations within APS - 2018

Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 2018 1 Year Estimates-http://www.census.gov/data

8


190

51

18

9

30

1418

50

68

4640

56 5953

234

197

76

45

2935

23

50

37

90

55 57

88

78

102

0

82

15

50

2218 20

47

77

3442

46

5559

208

0

24 2519

2821 19

4957

30

44

60

26

53

269

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(To Date)

E-470 Development - Building Permits (BP) by Quarter (2006 - 2020)

1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter

493 167 132 88 104 76 164 221 222 187 203 225 249 632234

Possible factors that may result in increased enrollment:

• More families moving into APS because of the high proportion of rental housing and the relative affordability compared to other communities in the Denver metro area

• More families moving to the Denver metro area from mountain and resort communities if the recreation and hospitality industry rebounds slower than other sectors

• Doubling up of households

• Disruption in normal summer transiency

• Increases in student grade retention

• Charter school impact



Source: US Census 2000 & 2010 SF2 HCT2; Census 2000 APS data provided by NCES- https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/sdds/selectgeo.asp?geo=districts&detail=dnamesAmerican Community Survey (ACS) 2018 1 Year Estimates- http://www.census.gov/data

Metro Area Counties Included: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson

APS and Denver Metro Area Percent Renter Occupied Housing Units (2000, 2010, and 2018)

40%

45% 46%

34%36% 37%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2000 2010 2018

APS Percent Renter Occupied Units Metro Area Percent Renter Occupied Units

• 46% of the Occupied housing units in APS are rental. The number of rental units has increased by over 4,000 since 2010

*Enrollment includes : traditional, charter, and program students

APS K-12 Enrollment and Colorado Job Growth Percent Change

20

16


Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics County High-Level https://www.bls.gov/cew/downloadable-data-files.htm

2.19% 2.36%

0.37%

-5.79%

-0.19%

2.35%2.21%

3.11%

3.71%

2.83%2.56%

2.00% 2.18% 2.37%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

APS All K-12 Percent Annual Enrollment Change Colorado Percent Job Growth

Annual percent change represents year over year change from September to September for Total Industries

Great Recession

• Between 2007 and 2012, APS K-12 enrollment grew by over 5,600 students an increase of over 17%

• Between 2015 and 2019, APS K-12 enrollment declined by over -2,200 a decline of almost -5%

12

13https://www.shiftresearchlab.org/projects/doubled-up-households-in-colorado

1414

Enrollment Metrics

• Continue tracking and reporting enrollment by school and grade on a weekly basis through the remainder of the 2019-20 school year

• Track and report enrollment by school and grade for the 2020-21 school year weekly throughout the summer

• Track and report enrollment by school and grade daily starting twelve days before the first day of the 2020-21 school yearo Compare daily enrollment to the same day of the school year for the last three years to

analyze changes in enrollment trendso Identify and report locations with large increases or significant declines in enrollment

• Provide weekly enrollment updates to district Leadership Team starting on the first day of the 2020-21 school year

• Provide the Board of Education with the annual enrollment update at the first Board meeting in October

• Continue tracking and reporting building permit and certificate of occupancy data for residential developments along the E-470 corridor on a quarterly basiso Monitor development activity throughout the APS community

• Collaborate with the Colorado Demography office, the City of Aurora, the Aurora Housing Authority, the development community and other data partners to assess current data related to community change and mobility



Scenarios Related to Blueprint APS

Charge 2 Future Possibilities

16

• During Phase 2 of Blueprint APS, the APS Board of Education directed framework included a plan for APS operated boundary schools along with magnet schools with specializations to ensure a variety of educational opportunities. The framework also included the idea of repurposing parts or entire buildings to support enhanced wraparound services.

• For the 2019-2020 school year, Charge 2 of the Blueprint work was to have region 3 go through a process that would include determining boundary schools, a magnet school, P-8(s), and any other repurposed buildings or parts of buildings along with their new purpose. In region 2, a determination was to be made foe the location of the district’s next P-8 school

• As the work around Charge 2 has been postponed into the 2020-2021 school year, we will be looking at the different factors in terms of enrollment/enrollment projections that will impact how and when the work will move forward.


Previous Timeline for 2019-20

April 9, 14, 28 RDT/LRFAC Meetings: Assess viable repurposing and P-8 options for Region 3 and a new building for Region 2. Considerations would include student enrollment projections, building enrollment vs. capacity and space utilization data.

April 29 LRFAC Meeting Assess and develop Charge 2 recommendations for Regions 2 and 3.

May 12 BOE Meeting LRFAC presents Charge 2 recommendations for Regions 2 and 3.

June 2 BOE Meeting District staff presents 2016 Bond Program funding adjustments.

June 16 BOE Meeting BOE votes on Charge 2 recommendations for Region 2 and Region 3. BOE votes on 2016 Bond Program adjustment recommendations.

Charge 2


The work for Charge 2 is postponed and will take place during the 2020-21 school year. There are three different scenarios in terms of enrollment that will impact how the work will move forward. These include the following:

1. Actual enrollment closely matches current projections for the 2020-21 school year.

2. Actual enrollment is significantly lower than current projections for the2020-21 school year throughout the district and/or within regions in the district.

3. Actual enrollment is significantly higher than current projections for the 2020-21 school year throughout the district and/or within regions in the district.

Charge 2


Charge 2 with Scenario 1 – Actual Enrollment Similar to Projected Enrollment

Region 2:Determine the location of the district’s next P-8 school andbuild a new P-8 school in response to new residential developments within the region. (Aug-Dec)

Region 3:Determine boundary schools, a magnet school, P-8 school(s) and any other repurposed buildings or parts of buildings along with their new purpose. (Aug-Dec)

Other Regions:Determine the next region(s) that will go through the Charge 2 process during the 2021-2022 school year. (Jan)


Region 2:Meet with developers and explore a location to build a new P-8 school in response to new residential developments within the region. Determine a timeline, which may be slower.Collect additional data to inform these decisions. (Aug – Dec)

Region 3:Determine boundary schools, a magnet school, P-8 school(s) and any other repurposed buildings or parts of buildings along with their new purpose. There may need to be greater repurposing of buildings for non-classroom use and faster timelines (potentially for 2021-2022) to respond to enrollment shifts and to create greater efficiency. Collect additional data to inform these decisions. (Aug-Dec)

Other Regions:Determine which additional region(s) will go through the Charge 2 process in a more accelerated timeline. One possibility in the other Design Region(s) may be a greaterrepurposing of buildings for non-classroom use to take place with a faster timeline (potentially for 2021-2022). (Aug – Dec)

Charge 2 with Scenario 2 – Actual Enrollment Significantly Lower Than

Projected Enrollment


Region 2Determine a location to build a new P-8 school in response to new developments within the region. Determine timeline, which may be faster. Collect additional data to inform these decisions. (Aug-Dec)

Region 3Determine boundary schools, a magnet school, P-8 school(s) and any other repurposed buildings or parts of buildings along with their new purpose. There may be less repurposing of buildings for non-classroom use or slower timelines. Collect additional data to inform these decisions. (Aug – Dec)

Other RegionsDetermine the next region(s) that will go through the Charge 2 process in 2021-2022. (Jan)

Charge 2 with Scenario – Actual Enrollment Significantly Greater Than

Projected Enrollment


Charge 2 2020-21 Timeline

Ongoing Planning Department will analyze enrollment trends throughout the district and within individual regions.

Aug - Sept RDTs will determine recommendations for LRFAC around new use of repurposed buildings or parts of repurposed building spaces in region 3.

Aug- Nov LRFAC will work in conjunction with RDTs to provide relevant data and information and create recommendations for the BOE around boundary schools, P-8(s), a magnet school and new use for repurposed buildings or parts of buildings for region 3. Determine recommendations for where a new P-8 will be built in region 2. Significantly lower enrollment or projected enrollment mayresult in additional region(s) going through a process similar to the one region 3 will go through on this timeline.

Dec 2020 LRFAC and District staff will provide recommendations to BOEaround Charge 2.

Jan 2021 Determine the next region(s) that will go through the Charge 2 process in 2021-2022.


Submitted Questions


Appendix

24

*Preschool enrollment includes Non-APS Facility students

District P-12 Enrollment Breakdown by Type(2010-11 to 2020-21 Projected)


School Year

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-202020-21

Projected

Oct. Count

38,847 39,903 40,035 41,161 42,065 42,569 42,111 41,252 40,280 40,505 40,183

DistrictP-12

Change

1,614 1,056 132 1,126 904 504 -458 -859 -972 225 -322

4.33% 2.72% 0.33% 2.81% 2.20% 1.20% -1.08% -2.04% -2.36% 0.56% -0.79%

2010 to 2015 Total Change: 3,722 (9.6%)

2010 to 2015 Average Annual Percent Change: 1.85%

2015 to 2019 Total Change: -2,064 (-4.8%)

2015 to 2019 Average Annual Percent Change: -1.23%

25


Blueprint APS - 10 Year Facility Plan Framework

1) Open at least six new P-8 schools in APS by constructing new buildings or by repurposing through remodeling or replacing existing facilities New P-8 schools may be a combination of boundary schools and APS operated choice schools

connected to Centers of Excellence.

Construct at least three new P-8 schools in the eastern half of the school district where enrollment is increasing as a result of housing development. The first of the three new P-8 schools should serve the E-470 corridor north of I-70 where no schools currently exist.

Assess opportunities to repurpose by replacing or remodeling at least three existing elementary and/ or middle schools in the west half of the district into P-8s.

2) Transition from a system of neighborhood schools to a boundary model by developing new boundaries for existing schools Identify schools most appropriate to serve as boundary schools based on building locations,

neighborhood demographics, and facility assets.

New boundaries will be larger than the current elementary and middle school attendance areas in order to increase operational efficiency.

New boundaries will incorporate impact of expanding choice schools. The number of boundary schools will depend on the number of choice schools including district magnet and charter schools.

The process to develop new boundaries should start in areas west of I-225 where operational efficiency has decreased with declining enrollment.

26


Blueprint APS - 10 Year Facility Plan Framework (continued)

3) Align facilities to meet the needs of expanded district managed choice programs

Identify schools most appropriate to consider for repurposing based on building locations, neighborhood demographics, and facility assets.

Remodel facilities as needed to address needs of new programs.

4) Organize transportation routes to support new school boundaries and magnate programs

27


What does Repurposing mean?

Repurposing Buildings may include:

–Reconfiguration of grade levels that a school building serves to emphasize APS’ P-8 model,

–Using repurposed buildings for magnet schools, community centers, other choice offerings, or other district uses,

–Consolidation of school buildings, and/or

–Closing of school buildings.

28

*Preschool enrollment includes Non-APS Facility students


How should APS respond to schools that are seeing declining enrollment as a result of a number of factors?

• APS will transition from neighborhood schools to boundary schools. This means schools may serve multiple neighborhoods, particularly for grades P-8.

• In expanding the geographic service areas that elementary, middle, P-8 schools serve, APS will need to repurpose some facilities. Repurposing of school buildings could include any of the following possibilities:

–Reconfiguration of grade levels that a school building serves to emphasize APS’ P-8 model,–Using repurposed buildings for magnet schools, community centers, other choice offerings, or other district uses,–Consolidation of school buildings, –Closing of school buildings, and/or–Selling assets.

• This approach allows APS to align existing parts of the district to a successful education model with P-8 schools, as well as increase the long-term operational efficiency of buildings. It will also create opportunities for more district choice options and a variety of grade sizes and configurations.

29


Thank You!

30

April 2020 Enrollment Update and Blueprint APS Charge 2€¦ · Traditional APS Middle School Monthly Enrollment (2015-16 to 2019-20) 2015-16 Change Since Oct Ct 2016-17 Change Since

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