U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 Job creation remains steady, but industry performance is varied U.S. employment situation: March 2016 April 1, 2016
U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
Job creation remains steady, but
industry performance is varied
U.S. employment situation: March 2016 April 1, 2016
March 2016 employment summary
• Job creation returned to normal levels, but subsector growth is varied
- March employment growth was slightly lower than February, but still strong with 215,000 net new jobs.
- Unemployment ticked up slightly to 5.0 percent as labor force participation rose to 63.0 percent.
- At the subsector level, goods-producing segments such as manufacturing fell into contractionary mode, while education, health and retail
continue to surpass professional and business services (PBS).
• Secondary geographies are surpassing primary ones in terms of growth
- Over the past year, secondary markets such as Austin, Charlotte, Nashville, Orlando and Raleigh-Durham continued to grow faster than
most primary markets.
- Some primary markets, particularly in the Bay Area, Pacific Northwest and South, continue to exceed the U.S. average, but have slowed
into the 2.5-3.5-percent range as earlier gains become increasingly unsustainable.
• Numerous indicators are uncertain and wobbling
- Consumer confidence has hovered around the 95-point mark, but is slightly below the cyclical high of 103.8 points achieved in early 2015.
- Initial unemployment claims have begun to fall again after an uptick in late 2015, but may not be able to drop much more in the coming
months.
- At the industry level, tech is holding steady at 5.5 percent, below the consistent 6.0+ percent growth seen in 2014 and 2015 and will likely
remain at this level throughout the rest of the year as talent shortages become more visible.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
March 2016 labor market at a glance
+215,000(66 consecutive months
of growth)1-month net change
+2,802,000(+1.9% y-o-y)
12-month change
+778,00010-year average annual growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5.0%Unemployment rate
-50bp12-month change in unemployment
63.0%Labor force participation rate
5,541,000(+3.7% y-o-y)
Job openings
5,029,000(+3.5% y-o-y)
Hires
2,804,000(+2.0% y-o-y)
Quits
Job creation in March remained above the 200,000 threshold,
picking up from the partial slowdown in mid-2015
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
0011
0,00
088
,000 10
6,00
012
2,00
022
1,00
018
3,00
016
4,00
0 196,
000
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
0011
0,00
088
,000
160,
000
150,
000
161,
000
225,
000
203,
000
214,
000
197,
000
280,
000
141,
000
203,
000
199,
000
201,
000
149,
000
202,
000
164,
000
237,
000 27
4,00
084
,000
166,
000
188,
000 22
5,00
033
0,00
023
6,00
028
6,00
024
9,00
021
3,00
0 250,
000
221,
000
423,
000
329,
000
221,
000 26
5,00
084
,000
251,
000
273,
000
228,
000
277,
000
150,
000
149,
000
295,
000
280,
000
262,
000
168,
000
245,
000
215,
000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
4
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment bumped back to 5.0 percent as labor force
participation rose once again in March
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
Companies are actively seeking talent, pushing job openings
to more than 5.5 million
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Job
open
ings
(th
ousa
nds)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Con
sum
er c
onfid
ence
inde
xConsumer confidence continues to wobble, hovering around
the 95-point mark
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
Despite a jump in the consumer price index, wage growth
continues to exceed inflation
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e
Hourly wage growth CPI growth
-29.0
-24.0
-12.0
-5.0
-2.5
-1.5
0.0
1.0
4.0
5.5
8.0
15.0
20.0
33.0
37.0
40.0
44.0
47.7
51.0
-40 -20 0 20 40 60
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Mining and logging
Nondurable goods
Transportation and warehousing
Motor vehicles and parts
Utilities
Information
Temporary help services
Wholesale trade
Other services
Financial activities
Government
Professional and business services
Construction
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Retail trade
Education and health services
1-month net change (thousands)
Growth was divided in March, with pronounced drops in
goods-producing industries
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
Education and health
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
64.5 percent of
monthly
growth.
-139.0
-68.0
-27.0
10.4
20.5
39.0
41.0
52.8
57.5
72.2
74.0
121.0
145.0
301.0
377.7
472.0
606.0
646.9
711.0
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Mining and logging
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Utilities
Motor vehicles and parts
Information
Nondurable goods
Transportation and warehousing
Wholesale trade
Temporary help services
Other services
Government
Financial activities
Construction
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Professional and business services
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
12-month net change (thousands)
Education and health
PBS
Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade
Financial activities
Manufacturing
All other jobs
Education and health continues to grow its lead over PBS in
annual terms
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
Core subsectors added 82.5 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
Unemployment for bachelor’s-degree holders ticked up by
10bp to 2.6 percent, but remains near natural low
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
Office-using growth continues its slowing path, although it
remains in growth mode
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
Tech remained below 6.0-percent as talent shortage makes
sustained growth difficult
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through January 2015.
13
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e (jo
bs)
Energy back to a 7.1-percent contraction and still shedding jobs
at an accelerated rate Year-on-year percent employment growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
After a bump in late 2015 and January 2016, initial claims are
falling once again
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
15
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Cla
ims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Hire
s an
d qu
its (
thou
sand
s)
Hires Quits
Both hires and quits dropped slightly in March, but are still
trending upward
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Secondary Sun Belt markets are the leader in metro area job
creation
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
17
San
Francisco
4.3%
Austin
4.7% Orlando
4.9%
Raleigh-
Durham
4.2%Nashville
4.0%
0.6%
1.4%
1.5%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.7%
2.9%
3.0%
3.4%
3.5%
4.3%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
Houston
Boston
Chicago
Philadelphia
Los Angeles
Washington, DC
New York
South Florida
Seattle
Dallas
Atlanta
San Francisco
12-month % change
Major market is beginning to slow slightly as previous levels
of growth become more difficult to sustain
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
As with the official unemployment rate, total unemployment
increased by 10 basis points in March; now at 9.8 percent
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
The labor force participation rate rose moderately to 62.9
percent, offsetting potential declines in unemployment
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Labo
r fo
rce
part
icip
atio
n ra
te (
%)
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