Appraising sub-regional and local growth strategies in the Nottingham-Leicester- Derby Area, UK. Policy applications of a new model of transport and land.

Appraising sub-regional and local growth

strategies in the Nottingham-Leicester-

Derby Area, UK.

Policy applications of a new model of transport and

land use activities

Duncan Forbes and Ying Jin WSP Policy & Research, Cambridge, UK

ETC 2008 8 October 2008

The 3 Cities

sub-region, UK

The PTOLEMY1 study area

1Planning Transport and Land use for the East Midlands economy

Structure of presentation

Overview of PTOLEMY and the modelling approach

Results from modelling studies undertaken– Case Study 1: Regional planning policy assessment– Case Study 2: Regional transport policy assessment– Case Study 3: Local housing policy assessment

What is a land use & transport model

Economic Activity

Population

Location of shops, jobs,

leisure

Location of households

Land use influences

the use of transport

Transport influences

the location of land use

Costs and

congestion

Costs and

congestion

Land-use activities

Basic Industries

10 full time + 10 Part time

Households 35 Income-occupation/ Household size/ car availability

Population 8 age/employment-education status

Employed residents 40 Income-occupation/ Household size/car availability/FT-PT

Local services

5 full time +5 Part time

Households

Basic Industries

Local Services

transport

Eg shops, schools

TransportPTOLEMY incorporates a multimodal transport model

Cycling

Walking

HGV

LGV

Households

Basic Industries

Local Services

transport

Bus

Coach

Tram Train

Park and Ride

Car

Traveller segments 22 (purpose, income-occupation groups, etc)

Main travel modes 10 (all land modes including walking/cycling)

Travel stages 23 (in-vehicle, access, waiting, etc)

No of transport links 64,000

Case Study 1:

Regional Planning Policy Assessment

Test options

Dwelling test options

D1: Dwelling Option 1Trend growth

Trend based growth assumptions from the Department for Communities and Local Government projections of households.

D2: Dwelling Option 2Urban concentration

Policy based growth determined from the East Midlands draft-RSS (Regional Spatial Strategy).

Employment test forecasts

E1: Employment Forecast 1Employment growth

Employment forecast based upon TEMPRO 5.3, producing 5.9% growth over the period 2006 to 2016 and 3.4% growth over the period 2016 to 2026.

E2: Employment Forecast 2Employment decline

Alternative employment forecast with -3.4% growth over the period 2006 to 2016, and 1.3% growth over the period 2016 to 2026.

• Similar levels of growth• D2 concentrates growth in main urban areas

• E1 has positive employment growth• E2 sees employment decline

Employment

Change 2001 - 2006

Change 2006 - 2016

E1-D1

E1-D2

E2-D1

E2-D2

Total employment in study area

4% 6% 6% -4% -4%

Total employed residents in study area

4% 12% 9% 12% 9%

Total in-commuters

21% 6% 6% -4% -4%

Total out-commuters

15% 57% 36% 132% 112%

Highlights the increase in out-commuting from the sub-region in the period 2006 to 2026

Passenger trips

Passenger trip-km

Average journey length

Commuting 4% 25% 20%Education 7% 9% 2%All 7% 20% 13%Commuting 2% 18% 16%Education 5% 7% 2%All 5% 15% 10%Commuting 3% 43% 38%Education 7% 10% 2%All 6% 31% 23%Commuting 1% 35% 34%Education 6% 8% 2%All 5% 26% 21%

E2-D2

Growth 2006 -2026

E1-D1

E1-D2

E2-D1

Travel characteristics

E1-D2 scenarioPositive employment growth and urban concentration housing growth

DerbyNottingham

Leicester

Average zonal road traffic speeds

Conclusions from Case Study 1

Demonstrated the importance of the balance of employment and housing

Showed that even with low economic growth traffic can grow

Showed that average traffic speeds within the region would fall particularly in suburban and rural networks

Case Study 2:

Regional Transport Assessment

Key features of the proposed Innovative package of measures

Congestion-charge cordon around the urban centres of Nottingham, Leicester and Derby

– £1.75 change on inbound traffic in the morning peak and outbound traffic movements in the evening peak.

– No charge was incurred outside the peak periods.

Measures that would allow or encourage travellers to change from using the car to making use of alternative transport modes:– Core measures: – Public transport fare reduction:– ‘Smarter’ choices:

Summary of impact in the AM peak period (7am to 10am) Compared to a continuation of current policy:

– Car: – car trips reduced by 15%– average monetary cost increased by 31%

– Park and Ride – use increase significantly with travellers closer to the park and

ride sites making more use of the facilities. – Bus

– increases by 70% – the average journey length increasing by 6%. – average fare reduced by 25%

– Tram– 67% increase in patronage with the introduction of new routes.

– Walking and cycling – also saw a 8% increase

Conclusions from Case Study 2 We were able to show that there was a significant

reduction in the use of car transport leading lower levels of congestions

-8.2%

0.5%

4.9%

0.1%0.6%

2.1%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Car Park andRide

Bus Train tram Walkingand

Cycling

Ch

ang

e in

mo

de

shar

e (%

tri

ps)

.

Case Study 3:

Local Housing Policy Assessment

Derby

Loughborough

Leicester

Nottingham

Burton

Housing rent indicator

M1 Motorway

Coalville

Hinckley

Change in congestion levels

Conclusions from Case Study 3

Highlighted the impact on the local housing market from the construction of 15000 dwellings within Coalville

Showed that congestions is likely to increase from Coalville leading to the M1, but also towards Loughborough

Conclusions

PTOLEMY has been developed to undertake a range of policy test within the 3-cities sub region of the East Midlands. – Case Study 1. Demonstrates the importance between the

balance of employment and housing.– Case Study 2. Shows that a package of transport measures

would be successful in reducing car traffic to support the economic development ambitions of the sub-region.

– Case Study 3: Shows the likely impacts to the local housing market and the impact of development on the highway network.

The model is now being extensively used by both public and private bodies within the region, in a number of new policy

applications

Acknowledgments PTOLEMY model development

– UK Highways Agency, East Midlands Development Agency, East Midlands Regional Authority, Department for Transport, East Midlands Airport

Case Study 1.– UK Highways Agency, East Midlands Development Agency, East Midlands Regional

Authority Case Study 2

– Derby City Council, Derbyshire County Council, Leicester City Council, Leicestershire County Council, Nottingham City Council, Nottinghamshire County Council

Case Study 3– Leicestershire County Council

WSP team– Gordon Deane, Duncan Forbes, Jing Gao, Jenny Hunt, Vera Jakimovska, Ying Jin, Ian

Williams, Yan Zhu