Applications of a Climate Moisture Index for assessing ...Impacts of the 2001-2002 drought • Severe aspen mortality in the parklands of Sask. & Alberta ... the 2001-2002 drought

Drought Research Initiative Workshop #2Drought Research Initiative Workshop #21111--13 January 2007, Winnipeg, Manitoba13 January 2007, Winnipeg, Manitoba

Applications of a Climate Moisture Index for assessing impacts of the 2001-2002 drought on aspen forests in the Prairie Provinces

11E.H. (Ted) Hogg, E.H. (Ted) Hogg, 11J.P. Brandt, J.P. Brandt, 11M. M. MichaelianMichaelian, , 11D.T. Price, D.T. Price, 11M. M. SiltanenSiltanen & & 22D.M. D.M. McKenneyMcKenney

1Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural ResouNorthern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada rces Canada Edmonton, AlbertaEdmonton, Alberta

2Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural ReGreat Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canadasources CanadaSault Ste. Marie, OntarioSault Ste. Marie, Ontario

Two major methods for measuring Two major methods for measuring ““droughtdrought””

1. 1. ““Relative indicatorsRelative indicators””

2. 2. ““Absolute indicatorsAbsolute indicators””

Provide a measure of moisture relative to the longProvide a measure of moisture relative to the long--term mean term mean and variability at a given locationand variability at a given location

e.g., Standardized Precipitation Index, Palmer Indicese.g., Standardized Precipitation Index, Palmer Indices

Provide a measure of moisture conditions as they affect biophysiProvide a measure of moisture conditions as they affect biophysical cal processes such as fire (fuel moisture), vegetation (soil moisturprocesses such as fire (fuel moisture), vegetation (soil moisture) e) & stream flow (water runoff)& stream flow (water runoff)

e.g., Canadian Fire Weather Index Systeme.g., Canadian Fire Weather Index Systemfor assessing forest fire riskfor assessing forest fire risk

Climate Moisture IndexClimate Moisture Indexfor assessing forestfor assessing forest--climate relationshipsclimate relationships

Climate Moisture Index (CMI)Climate Moisture Index (CMI)

CMI =CMI = PP -- PETPET(units in cm/year)(units in cm/year)

P is mean annual precipitation P is mean annual precipitation (includes water input as both rain and snow)(includes water input as both rain and snow)

PET is annual potential PET is annual potential evapotranspirationevapotranspiration(loss of water (loss of water vapourvapour from wellfrom well--vegetated landscape)vegetated landscape)

Methods for estimating PET:

1. Jensen-Haise (mean monthly solar radiation, temperature, and elevation)2. Simplified Penman-Monteith (maximum and minimum temperature, elevation)

From Hogg (1994) Can. J. For. Res. 24: 1835-1845and Hogg (1997) Agric. For. Meteorol. 84: 115-122.

PETPETPP

runoffrunoff

A simple index for assessing moisture regimes in remote forestedA simple index for assessing moisture regimes in remote forested regionsregionswhere longwhere long--term climate data are typically limited to temperature and preciterm climate data are typically limited to temperature and precipitationpitation

Application of the Climate Moisture Index:Application of the Climate Moisture Index:

Analysis of climatic factors affecting forest distribution underAnalysis of climatic factors affecting forest distribution underpresent and projected future climate (Hogg and Hurdle 1995)present and projected future climate (Hogg and Hurdle 1995)

From Hogg, E.H. and P.A. Hurdle. 1995. The aspen parkland in western Canada: A dry-climate analogue for the future boreal forest? Water, Air and Soil Pollution 82: 391-400.

Applications of the CMI Applications of the CMI (continued):(continued):

CIPHACIPHA::Climate Impacts on Productivity & Health of aspenClimate Impacts on Productivity & Health of aspen

Studies of drought impacts on forest growth & dieback

•• Started in 2000 by Hogg, Brandt and Started in 2000 by Hogg, Brandt and KochtubajdaKochtubajdain response to concerns about aspen diebackin response to concerns about aspen dieback

•• Annual monitoring of aspen forest healthAnnual monitoring of aspen forest healthin 25 study areas (75 stands)in 25 study areas (75 stands)

• Includes tree-ring analysis of past growth

Aspen tree-rings

1990

2000

BA

RK

BERMS

BERMS Old Aspen siteBERMS Old Aspen sitePrince Albert National ParkPrince Albert National Park

Main factors affecting aspen growth:

•• Climate Moisture Index (CMI)Climate Moisture Index (CMI)for 1 Augustfor 1 August--31 July (31 July (‘‘tree water yeartree water year””))

•• Insect defoliation (D)Insect defoliation (D)mainly forest tent caterpillar

Results:Results:CIPHA treeCIPHA tree--ring analysisring analysistotal of 432 aspen trees sampledtotal of 432 aspen trees sampled

From Hogg et al. 2005, Can. J. For. Res. (results updated to 2004)

Drought years

Defoliation yearsD

ryM

oist

2001-02 drought

CM

ID

etre

nded

grow

th (A

’)

Regression: A’ = 1.169 + 0.0111 CMI + 0.0099 CMI-1 + 0.0071 CMI-2+ 0.0058 CMI-3 + 0.0055 CMI-4 – 0.0119 D, r2 =0.697

Interannual variation in the regional CMI

Impacts of the 2001Impacts of the 2001--2002 drought2002 drought•• Severe aspen mortality in the parklands of Sask. & AlbertaSevere aspen mortality in the parklands of Sask. & Alberta

(resembling fire in some areas!)(resembling fire in some areas!)

•• Conifers and urban trees also affected Conifers and urban trees also affected

•• Aspen mortality in CIPHA plots increasedAspen mortality in CIPHA plots increasedin the 4 years following the droughtin the 4 years following the drought

•• Spatial variation in mortality best correlatedSpatial variation in mortality best correlatedwith drought severity (minimum CMI)with drought severity (minimum CMI)

Severe aspen mortality following drought near North Battleford, Sask. (Michaelian, Aug. 2004)

Drought-damagedaspen foliage August 2002

1

2

3

4

5

6

20002001

20012002

20022003

20032004

20042005

20052006

Year

Ann

ual s

tem

mor

talit

y (%

)

y = 0.0033x2 - 0.1297x + 5.529R2 = 0.3659

0

10

20

30

40

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

Minimum one-year CMI(2000-2005)

Mortality of aspen biomassduring 2000-2005

Mor

talit

y (%

)

Aspen dieback atBatoche, Sask.

May 2003

Impacts of the 2001-2002 droughtAerial survey of aspen mortality Aerial survey of aspen mortality August 2004, August 2004, CIPHACIPHA studystudy

Surveys and preliminary map by M. Surveys and preliminary map by M. MichaelianMichaelian

Flight lines

Prince Albert

BERMS (BOREAS)Flux tower site, Prince AlbertNational Park

LightModerateSevereCIPHA siteForestFire

MORTALITY

Drought was the Drought was the worst on record worst on record across most of the across most of the area surveyedarea surveyed

DroughtDrought--induced aspen induced aspen mortality at Fort Carlton, mortality at Fort Carlton, Sask., August 2006Sask., August 2006

For monitoring & retrospective analyses For monitoring & retrospective analyses of forest responses to droughtof forest responses to drought

MethodsMethods: : •• uses 10uses 10--km km griddedgridded elevation and monthly temperature & precipitation (1901elevation and monthly temperature & precipitation (1901--2003)2003)

•• interpolation by ANUSPLIN for all of Canada (interpolation by ANUSPLIN for all of Canada (McKenneyMcKenney et al.)et al.)

•• applied CMI equations (P applied CMI equations (P –– PET) for 12PET) for 12--month periods ending 31 Julymonth periods ending 31 July

Mapping of the CMIMapping of the CMI DRY MOIST

Climate Moisture Index (CMI)-30 0 +30 +60 +90-60

3030--year meanyear mean19611961--19901990

20012001--20022002

Area covered by aerial survey Area covered by aerial survey of aspen dieback and mortalityof aspen dieback and mortality

Comparison with previous prairie drought yearsComparison with previous prairie drought yearsMapping of the CMIMapping of the CMI

20012001--20022002

In the affected areas of aspen parkland, the 2001In the affected areas of aspen parkland, the 2001--2002 drought was more2002 drought was moresevere than during some previous wellsevere than during some previous well--known years of prairie drought known years of prairie drought

DRY MOIST

Climate Moisture Index (CMI)-30 0 +30 +60 +90-60

3030--year meanyear mean19611961--19901990

20002000--20012001

19871987--19881988

19601960--19611961

19361936--19371937

Comparison with previous boreal drought yearsComparison with previous boreal drought yearsMapping of the CMIMapping of the CMI

20012001--20022002

But: there were other years with a more northerly extent of drouBut: there were other years with a more northerly extent of drought that were of ght that were of comparable severity to the 2001comparable severity to the 2001--2002 drought in parts of the CIPHA study region2002 drought in parts of the CIPHA study region

DRY MOIST

Climate Moisture Index (CMI)-30 0 +30 +60 +90-60

3030--year meanyear mean19611961--19901990

19791979--19801980

19631963--19641964

19401940--19411941

19181918--19191919

•• ““Scaling upScaling up”” regionalregional--scale impacts of the recent drought scale impacts of the recent drought Includes remote sensing component (with Hall, Arsenault eIncludes remote sensing component (with Hall, Arsenault et al.)t al.)

•• Assessing impacts of recent drought on C uptake & releaseAssessing impacts of recent drought on C uptake & release

•• Estimating impacts of past droughts on forest growth, biomass Estimating impacts of past droughts on forest growth, biomass and C uptakeand C uptake

•• Assessing risks to urban forests, plantations & Assessing risks to urban forests, plantations & afforestationafforestation projectsprojectsSee See VolneyVolney et al. (2005), et al. (2005), UnasylvaUnasylva 221: 20221: 20--2525

•• Inclusion of drought as a disturbance type in forest carbon acInclusion of drought as a disturbance type in forest carbon accountingcountingPotential for inclusion in the CFS Carbon Budget Model (Potential for inclusion in the CFS Carbon Budget Model (KurzKurz et al.)et al.)

•• Development of climateDevelopment of climate--driven models of forest growth & diebackdriven models of forest growth & diebackPotential tool for managing forests under a changing climaPotential tool for managing forests under a changing climatete

Future applications of the CMIFuture applications of the CMI

Team members & collaboratorsTeam members & collaborators

Forest health Forest health crew leaderscrew leaders

Jim HammondJim HammondRick HurdleRick HurdleRoger Roger NesdolyNesdoly (MM)(MM)Brad Brad TommTommJim WeberJim WeberBrian ChristensenBrian ChristensenAndrea DurandAndrea DurandRay Ray FidlerFidler (PC)(PC)Angela JohnsonAngela JohnsonSarah MartinSarah MartinRyan Ryan RaypoldRaypoldErin Van Erin Van OverloopOverloopMark SchweitzerMark SchweitzerJessica Jessica SneddenSneddenBill van Bill van EgterenEgterenBryan VroomBryan VroomDave Dave WiederWieder (PC)(PC)and othersand others

Funding (CIPHA study)

Climate Change Action FundProgram of Energy Research and DevelopmentMistik Management Ltd., Meadow Lake, Sask.Forest 2020AAFC – PFRA AdministrationCFS Climate Change and Forest Health groups

TreeTree--ring ring analysesanalyses

CIPHA investigatorsCIPHA investigators

E.H. Ted HoggE.H. Ted HoggJames BrandtJames BrandtRon HallRon HallAnthony Anthony HopkinHopkin (GLFC)(GLFC)Bob Bob KochtubajdaKochtubajda (EC)(EC)

Research Research collaborationscollaborations

Alan Barr (EC)Alan Barr (EC)Pierre Bernier (LFC)Pierre Bernier (LFC)Andy Black (UBC)Andy Black (UBC)Jag Jag BhattiBhattiOlivier Olivier BouriaudBouriaudPraveenaPraveena Krishnan (UBC)Krishnan (UBC)Werner Werner KurzKurz (PFC)(PFC)Vic Vic LieffersLieffers (U of A)(U of A)Dan Dan McKenneyMcKenney (GLFC)(GLFC)David PriceDavid PriceKen van Rees (U of S)Ken van Rees (U of S)Alison Alison TheedeTheede (U of S)(U of S)and othersand others

Mike Mike MichaelianMichaelian

Data managementData management& analysis systems& analysis systems

Mike Mike MichaelianMichaelianTrisha HookTrisha HookAl Keizer (GLFC)Al Keizer (GLFC)Michael Michael SalomonsSalomonsRoger BrettRoger Brettand othersand others

Trisha HookTrisha HookMichael Michael SalomonsSalomonsThierry Thierry VaremVarem--SandersSandersand othersand others

Field & laboratoryField & laboratoryassistanceassistance

Aerial surveys &Aerial surveys &remote sensing remote sensing systemssystems

Mike Mike MichaelianMichaelianEric ArsenaultEric ArsenaultRob Rob SkakunSkakun