Applications and benefits of weather, climate and water information to the power sector Laurent Dubus EDF R&D Applied Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment.

Applications and benefits of weather, climate and water

information to the power sector

Laurent DubusEDF R&DApplied Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment Group

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION

“MEETING OF THE WMO FORUM: SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS

OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES”

WMO HEADQUARTERS, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND

8-11 APRIL 2013

WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013 2

Overview

1. Preliminary remarks on power systems

2. Important meteorological parameters and data/forecasts used

3. What about economic evaluation of the benefits from weather/water/climate data ?


Overview





Power systems are more and more complex

EDF power production, 2011

46.6 / 628.2 TWh from renewables


Growing importance of Renewables

(2010: 12%)

Power Offer/Demand balance: a complex problem


Production units' program:58 nuclear reactors435 hydro power units~50 thermal (coal, gas, fuel)~900 Wind farms~250,000 solar (including households)

Huge optimization problem: 1 000 000 variables & 10 000 000 constraints for day+2 30 minutes forecasts

Highly non convex and non linear, discrete and continuous variables

Highly demanding on optimality (1% differenceseveral millions euros/year) and feasibility (all technical constraints must be satisfied)

Problems:Production=Demand at each time stepMany constraintsFinancial optimization of production

costs

6


Overview




Power demand depends on temperature


45000,0

55000,0

65000,0

75000,0

85000,0

95000,0

105000,0

-15,0

-10,0

-5,0

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01/10/2011 01/11/2011 01/12/2011 01/01/2012 01/02/2012 01/03/2012

Tanom (°C)

T (°C)

TN (°C)

Pmax (MW)

In France, power demand is highly dependent on temperature. in winter : -1°C dT +2 300 MW of extra production ~ 20 M€

hedging in summer : +1°C dT +400-500 MW of extra production

Data from RTE & Météo-France

Increasing renewable energy production increases the dependance on weather variability and climate change


Daily variations of french hydro power production capacity in 2003

Mois de juin 2010

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Pu

issa

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s en

MW

Réalisations J J+1 J+2 Forfait

Hydro

Wind

Solar (PV)

Renewables: highly

fluctuating resources

(especially wind and solar

energy)

State of the art NWP models are used


Example: in-house products built from ECMWF & Météo-France VarEPS/monthly forecasts (temperature)

Temperature + Cloud Cover Demand forecasts production units

scheduling physical margins calculations hedging for residual

financial risk (mandatory)

Monthly forecasts of river discharge using ECMWF products + in house post-processing methods


ECMWF Monthly fcst (Z700 & Z1000)

Analog Method

Hydrological Model

Local T2m & Precip over 43 basins

Streamflow Prob fcsts

• Streamflow climatology• Hydro Model forced by T2m & Precip climatology (1969-

2008)• Hydro Model forced by Analog T2m & Precip• Observation

New model is now operational, an extension to seasonal forecasts is uner consideration

DUBUS, L. In Press. Weather & climate and the power sector: Needs, recent developments and challenges. In: TROCCOLI, A., AUDINET, P.,DUBUS, L. & HAUPT, S. (eds.) Weather matters for energy. Springer


Local forecasts for renewables: a big challenge


Many challenges remain


Importance of meteorological data for project

definition/dimensionning (V@100m, solar rad)

Moderate forecast errors can lead to high

production errors

Some important parameters/events still not well

known/monitored/forecasted:

solar radiation (global/direct/diffuse)

rapid fluctuations (wind/radiation)

snow, icing events, low level clouds …

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m/s

kW


Overview




Economic evaluation of weather/water/climate info benefits


Few publications on this subject, most of which come from research

institutes, universities, international agencies (NREL, IEA, OECD…)

Not from energy companies, because of the sensitivity of the

economic information (competitive markets)

Evaluations are country/technology specific :

depend on national policies (in particular for renewables:

incentives vs. pure market rules)

BAMS, dec. 2005

EDF’s financial communication (feb. 2011)

17WMO Forum, SEB, 8-11 April 2013

Importance of observed data for investments


An accurate estimation of the resource is essential

Example: for an offshore wind turbine in France, an overestimation of 0.5m/s of the average wind speed (6.5 m/s instead of 6.0 m/s) can lead to a difference in production cost of 18% (V. Maupu, EDF R&D, personal communication)

Long time series are needed to assess the wind/solar resource for a given site

Forecasts for wind energy : the NCAR/Xcel Energy experience


Mahoney, W.P.; Parks, K.; Wiener, G.; Yubao Liu; Myers, W.L.; Juanzhen Sun; Delle Monache, L.; Hopson, T.; Johnson, D.; Haupt, S.E., "A Wind Power Forecasting System to Optimize Grid Integration," Sustainable Energy, IEEE Transactions on , vol.3, no.4, pp.670,682, Oct. 2012. doi: 10.1109/TSTE.2012.2201758


Cost analysis before, during and after the deployment of the new system:

Total decrease of 20% in MAPE between 2008 and 2010 US $6M savings between 2009 and 2010 for wind power forecasts + US $2M savings due to more efficient commitment and dispatching of fossil

fuel ressources

From Mahoney et al., 2012

Forecasts for wind energy : the NCAR/Xcel Energy experience

From Parks et al., 2011

Wind energy: the ANEMOS.plus & SafeWind Projects


Includes 38 references about value of wind forecasting

Because in general TSO provide data publicly, free of charge

Results must be taken with care (many parameters to take into account)


Increased penetration of renewable energies (wind/solar) can a priori decrease

energy prices, but have secondary effects like increase in maintenance costs for

other energy sources (nuclear, coal fuel, gas) that are used in less optimal

conditions

Results should be taken with care, and global assessments are needed

Conclusions (1/2)


In the last 10 years, much progress was achieved in NMHSs and research centers (VarEPS & monthly forecasts @ ECMWF for instance)

Only a few energy companies actively collaborate with NMHSs & private weather companies to develop new tailored products (ex.: Xcel Energy & NCAR/NREL, EDF & Météo-France)

Dialog between Providers & Users is essential to translate improvements in science into business improvements

Communication towards & training of end-users is very important Upstream collaboration and partnerships should be encouraged

www.icem2013.org

http://www.icem2013.org/

Conclusions (2/2)


Progress are needed in forecasts at all time scales, but also in

observations.

Showing an improvement w.r.t current practise is often enough

An economic evaluation of the benefits of WCW services in the energy

sector is :

technically complex

country/technology dependant

generally not publicly available because of strategic aspects

However, even if economic benefit assessment is difficult, the value

of WCW services is essential to the power sector


Thank you for your attention

Applications and benefits of weather, climate and water information to the power sector Laurent Dubus EDF R&D Applied Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment.

Documents

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