Application of Supply Chain Concepts to the Analysis Process2016/01/27  · Application of Supply Chain Concepts to the Analysis Process Rob Handfield, PhD Bank of America University

Application of Supply Chain Concepts to the Analysis Process

Rob Handfield, PhD Bank of America University Distinguished Professor of Supply Chain Management Executive Director, Supply Chain Resource Cooperative Poole College of Management Judith Johnston, PhD Adjunct Professor Laboratory for Analytic Science Steve Markham, PhD Professor of Innovation Management Director, The Entrepreneurship Collaborative Poole College of Management

DO5 WRM Seminar September 9, 2015

Poulton Innovation Center

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•  This  task  explores  the  applica1on  of  a  supply  chain  view  to  the  intelligence  development  process.    

•  The  supplier-­‐producer-­‐consumer  model  of  intelligence  development  is  sugges1ve  of  a  supply  chain  that  specifies  and  implements  a  sequence  of  processes  that  produce  and  distribute  a  product.    

•  To  capture  the  fidelity  of  models  of  intelligence  analysis  and  provide  the  flexibility  for  looking  at  different  aspects  of  the  intelligence  analysis  process,  the  team  will  create  a  hybrid  framework  that  supports  supply  chain  analysis  of  simple  and  complex  processes.    

 MISSION:    Develop  a  framework  and  comprehensive  model  of  the   intelligence   analysis   system,   using   a   synergy   of   supply  chain   management   principles   combined   with   specified  knowledge  of  the  intelligence  analysis  process.  

Task  Mission  

•  Rob  Handfield,  PhD  •  Professor  of  Supply  Chain  Management,  Dept  of  Business  Mgmt  •  Role  and  Responsibili1es:      

•  Team  Leader  –  organize  mee1ngs,  and  drive  research  •  Steve  Markham,  PhD  

•  Professor  of  Management,  Dept.  of  Management,  ,  Innova1on  &  Entrepreneurship  

•  Role:    SME,  Business  Process  Management,  Hypothesis  Genera1on,  Analy1cs,  Innova1on  

•  Judith  Johnston,  PhD  •  Adjunct  Professor,  LAS,  NCSU  •  Role:  SME  (intelligence  analysis  methods  and  produc1on  processes,  

liaison  with  other  IC  agencies  (beyond  Ft.  Meade),  expert  on  intelligence  culture.  

Team  Members  

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•  Intelligence  Community  –  Interviews  Conducted  •  Organiza1on  of  Intelligence,  Structured  Analy1c  Techniques  (Pherson  

Associates),  Office  of  the  Director  of  Na1onal  Intelligence,    •  Interviews  at  CIA  Headquarters  with  mul1ple  SME’s  and  analysts  

•  Laboratory  for  Analy1c  Science  (NC  State)  •  Research  on  data  readiness,  applica1on  of  supply  chain  models  to  the  

intelligence  development  process  •  Insurance  Industry  –  Risk  associated  with  supply  chain  disrup1on  

•  Verisk,  Maplecro`,  Zurich,  Global  Insurance  providers  •  So`ware  Industry  –  focused  on  crea1ng  insight  into  supply  chain  risks  

•  Panjiva,  SAP,  Resilinc,  others  •  Organiza1ons  interviewed  –  Faced  with  predic1ng  and  managing  supply  

chain  risks  •  Over  a  dozen  organiza1ons  from  pharmaceu1cal,  manufacturing,  

apparel,  and  energy  industries.      

Interviews  &  Research  Conducted  to  Date  

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•  Ques%on  1:    What  are  the  high  level  (Level  1)  and  more  specific  (Level  2)  value  stream  maps  that  depict  the  roles  and  ac%vi%es  of  the  mul%ple  internal  analysts,  government  stakeholders  and  third  party  supply  chain  partners  associated  with  the  intelligence  development  process?    

•  Deliverable  1:  A  prototype  value  stream  map  with  swim  lanes,  key  par1es  involved,  roles  and  responsibili1es  depicted  in  the  stream,  and  feedback  loops  related  to  current  processes  in  use.  In  effect,  this  process  map  will  illustrate  “how  the  process  works  today,”  and  will  also  include  boelenecks,  long  lead-­‐1me  processes,  areas  where  the  process  is  not  well  defined,  etc    

•  Approach:    Develop  an  ini1al  prototype  value  stream  map  based  on  interviews  with  key  LAS  subject  maeer  experts  (SMEs)  and  on-­‐going  revisions  of  this  map  based  on  addi1onal  interviews.    

Team  ObjecHve  1  

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•  The  best  that  can  be  said  about  the  generic  intelligence  cycle  is  that  “it  is  a  decent  approxima1on”…but  that  “there  are  so  many  short  cuts  in  produc1on,  that  this  depic1on  is  more  of  an  idea  than  what  the  actual  work  is  that  gets  done  on  a  daily  basis.”  

•  There  do  not  exist  a  good  set  of  metrics  for  defining  the  analy1cal  process.    Most  of  the  measures  are  post-­‐hoc,  and  o`en  the  only  reward  is  the  “hallway  file”  that  an  analyst  may  build  up  over  1me.  

•  There  is  recogni1on  that  current  analysis  outputs  are  not  always  relevant,  given  the  stream  of  informa1on  available  on  the  internet  and  television.    There  simply  aren’t  a  lot  of  secrets  anymore.    One  execu1ve  noted  that  our  research  should  seek  to  help  “make  analysis  relevant”.  

•  There  is  a  lot  of  ac1vity  around  “big  data”,  but  there  has  not  emerged  a  coherent  approach  within  the  IC  to  incorporate  these  methods  to  capture  and  code  the  massive  amount  of  data  found  on  the  internet  

•  Tradi1onal  measures  of  intelligence  products  are  limited  by  the  idea  of  intelligence  as  a  “finished  product”,  as  opposed  to  a  service.    

•  The  breadth  and  role  of  key  actors  in  the  intelligence  product  development  process  are  not  well  defined  

IniHal  ObservaHons  (to  Date)  

Swim  Lanes  

REFINE QUESTION COLLECT DATA

Draft Initial

Report

REVISION REPORT

REPORT DISTRIBUTION TAGGING FILING

CUSTOMER

TEAM CHIEF

INTELL OFFICER

CHIEF OF STATION

ANALYST SME’s

ALL SOURCE DATA

Prioritize Work Schedule

COORDINATE Review Edit Comment

READ DISTRIBUTE

OPEN SOURCE File in

Library Augment

End

EDIT REVISE

Review Augment Comment

Prioritize Work Schedule

Coo

rdin

atio

n

IniHal  Prototype    -­‐  Analyst  Project  Report  Development  Process  

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TASK  •  PRESIDENT  •  AGENCY  •  POLICY  MAKER  •  TEAM  CHIEF  

Recruiting Collecting Reporting THE WIRE

LIBRARY  OF    REPORTS  (300M)  

Provide Input

COLLECTION    QUEUE  

PROGRAM  OF      ANALYSIS  (?)  

COLLECTION QUEUE

•  PRESIDENT  •  AGENCY  •  TEAM  CHIEF  

GLOBAL  CRISIS  TASK  FORCE  

PDB?  GO  TO  2.0  

Related  report  Interes1ng  fact  

Info. Vetting

ANALYSIS

Another  View  of  the  Process:    Types  of  Data  and  Analysis  

Simplified  Dra`  Mapping  of  Analysis  

10  

Direc1on  (POAs,  

Ques1ons)  

Edit  (Many  levels)  

Collaborate  

Process  &  Analyze:  (Tasks:  Read,  Think,  

Write  Dra`)  

Produce  and  Disseminate  

Collec1on  (Many  sources)  

Other  agencies  O

thers  

Analysts  

Managem

ent  

Opportunity  Analysis  Direct          Analyze        Disseminate  

Custom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Direc1on  POAs  

Edit  

Coordinate    Process  &  Analyze:  Task,  Dra`  

Produce  and  Disseminate  

 Collec1on  

Review  and  Feedback  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Decision  Making  

1  Direct  

2  Analyze  

3  Dissminate  1

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Opportunity  1  -­‐  PMO  Direct          Analyze        Disseminate  

Custom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Direc1on  POAs  

Edit  

Coordinate    Process  &  Analyze:  Task,  Dra`  

Produce  and  Disseminate  

 Collec1on  

Review  and  Feedback  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Decision  Making  

1  Direct  

2  Analyze  

3  Dissminate  1.  Program  Management  

Office  

Analysis  Overview  Direct          Analyze        Disseminate  

Custom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Direc1on  POAs  

Edit  

Coordinate    Process  &  Analyze:  Task,  Dra`  

Produce  and  Disseminate  

 Collec1on  

Review  and  Feedback  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Decision  Making  

1  Direct  

2  Analyze  

3  Desseminate  

Opportunity  2  –  Project  Coding  and  Classifica1on  Direct          Analyze        Disseminate  

Custom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Direc1on  POAs  

Edit  

Coordinate    Process  &  Analyze:  Task,  Dra`  

Produce  and  Disseminate  

 Collec1on  

Review  and  Feedback  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Decision  Making  

1  Direct  

2  Analyze  

3  Dissminate  

2.    Project  Coding  System  

Intelligence  Direc1on  Cu

stom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Direc1on  POAs  

Process  &  Analyze:  Task,  Dra`  

 Collec1on  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Project  Type:  1)  Mission,  2)  

NIPF  issue,  3)  Collec1on  Que  

Assign  Priori1es   Define  Task  

Analyst  Ini1a1ves  

Opportunity  3  –  Intelligence  Staging  Direct          Analyze        Disseminate  

Custom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Direc1on  POAs  

Edit  

Coordinate    Process  &  Analyze:  Task,  Dra`  

Produce  and  Disseminate  

 Collec1on  

Review  and  Feedback  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Decision  Making  

1  Direct  

2  Analyze  

3  Desseminate  

3.    Analysis  and  informa1on  staging  

Opportunity  4  –  Capacity  Planning  Direct          Analyze        Disseminate  

Custom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Direc1on  POAs  

Edit  

Coordinate    Process  &  Analyze:  Task,  Dra`  

Produce  and  Disseminate  

 Collec1on  

Review  and  Feedback  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Decision  Making  

1  Direct  

2  Analyze  

3  Dissminate  

4.    Capacity  and  Alloca1on  Planning  

Analyze    Cu

stom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Direc1on  POAs  to  Task  

Read/Process  raw  Intelligence  

Define    Ques1ons  

 Specify  Sources  and  

Create  Collec1on  Queue    

Coordinate  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Define  Task  

Formulate  Insights  

Write  Dra`  Report  

Access  SMEs  Review  

Agreements  

Begin  Edi1ng  

LIBRARY  OF    REPORTS  (300M)  

Opportunity  5  –  More  Efficient  Collec1on  Direct          Analyze        Disseminate  

Custom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Direc1on  POAs  

Edit  

Coordinate    Process  &  Analyze:  Task,  Dra`  

Produce  and  Disseminate  

 Collec1on  

Review  and  Feedback  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Decision  Making  

1  Direct  

2  Analyze  

3  Dissminate  

5.    MBL  to  improve  analysis  

process  

Figure  5  -­‐  Disseminate  Cu

stom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Edit  

Coordinate  Dra`  Report  

Disseminate  

Review  and  Feedback  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Decision  Making  

Manager  Edit   Produce  

Distribu1on  

File  in    Library  

Opportunity  6  –  Human  Intelligence  Cura1on  Direct          Analyze        Disseminate  

Custom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Direc1on  POAs  

Edit  

Coordinate    Process  &  Analyze:  Task,  Dra`  

Produce  and  Disseminate  

 Collec1on  

Review  and  Feedback  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Decision  Making  

1  Direct  

2  Analyze  

3  Dissminate  

6.    Human  Cura1on  of  Intelligence  Collec1on  

SUMMARY  -­‐  Opportunity  Analysis  Direct          Analyze        Disseminate  

Custom

er  

Manager  

Edito

r        An

alyst        

Collector  

Other    

Agen

cies  

Direc1on  POAs  

Edit  

Coordinate    Process  &  Analyze:  Task,  Dra`  

Produce  and  Disseminate  

 Collec1on  

Review  and  Feedback  

Direc1on  KIQ  

Decision  Making  

1  Direct  

2  Analyze  

3  Dissminate  1

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Path  Forward  for  DO6  1.  PMO  -­‐  Methods  by  which  improved  

coordina1on  can  result  in  improved  foresight  and  aligned  decision-­‐making.    

2.  Methods  for  beeer  cataloging  and  accessing  informa1on,  leading  to  more  efficient  processes    

3.  Iden1fy  approaches  for  quicker  response  to  emergency  requests  for  intelligence    

4.  Improved  capacity  planning  &  u1liza1on  of  analyst  1me  and  resources  

5.  Pilot  tool  for  improved  MBL  search  capabili1es  6.  COE  to  improve  data  feeds  through  human  

cura1on  of  search  requests    

Core  Competencies  for  Intelligence  Analysts*  Core   DefiniHon  

1.  Engagement  and  CollaboraHon  

IC  employees  have  a  responsibility  to  share  informa1on  and  knowledge  to  achieve  results,  and  in  that  regard  are  expected  to  recognize,  value,  build,  and  leverage  diverse  collabora1ve  networks  of  coworkers,  peers,  customers,  stakeholders,  and  teams  within  an  organiza1on  and/or  across  the  IC.    

Sub-­‐Competencies   Building  Professional/Technical  Networks;  Influencing/Nego1a1ng;  Interpersonal  Skills;  Informa1on  Sharing  

2.  CriHcal  Thinking   IC  employees  are  expected  to  use  logic,  analysis,  synthesis,  crea1vity,  judgment,  and  systema1c  approaches  to  gather,  evaluate,  and  use  mul1ple  sources  of  informa1on  to  effec1vely  inform  decisions  and  outcomes.    

Sub-­‐Competencies   Crea1ve  Thinking;  Exploring  Alterna1ves;  Enterprise  Perspec1ve;  Situa1onal  Awareness;  Synthesis  

3.  Personal  Leadership  and  Integrity  

IC  employees  are  expected  to  demonstrate  personal  ini1a1ve  and  innova1on,  as  well  as  integrity,  honesty,  openness,  and  respect  for  diversity  in  their  dealings  with  coworkers,  peers,  customers,  stakeholders,  teams,  and  collabora1ve  networks  across  the  IC.  IC  employees  are  also  expected  to  demonstrate  core  organiza1onal  and  IC  values,  including  selfless  service,  a  commitment  to  excellence,  and  the  courage  and  convic1on  to  express  their  professional  views.    

Sub-­‐Competencies   Courage  &  Convic1on;  Dedicated  Service;  Innova1on;  Integrity/Honesty;  Resilience;  Respect  for  Diversity  

*for  all  non-­‐supervisory  personnel  GS-­‐15  and  below  (ICD  610,  2008)  

Core   DefiniHon  4.  Accountability  for  Results  

IC  employees  are  expected  to  take  responsibility  for  their  work,  sesng  and/or  mee1ng  priori1es,  and  organizing  and  u1lizing  1me  and  resources  efficiently  and  effec1vely  to  achieve  the  desired  results,  consistent  with  their  organiza1on’s  goals  and  objec1ves.    

Sub-­‐Competencies   Adaptability;  Con1nual  Learning;  Ini1a1ve;  Resource  Management;  Rigor  

5.  Technical  ExperHse  

IC  employees  are  expected  to  acquire  and  apply  knowledge,  subject  maeer  exper1se,  tradecra`,  and/or  technical  competency  necessary  to  achieve  results.    

Sub-­‐Competencies   Professional  Tradecra`;  Subject  Maeer  Exper1se  

6.  CommunicaHon   IC  employees  are  expected  to  effec1vely  comprehend  and  convey  informa1on  with  and  from  others  in  wri1ng,  reading,  listening,  and  verbal  and  non-­‐verbal  ac1on.  Employees  are  also  expected  to  use  a  variety  of  media  in  communica1ng  and  making  presenta1ons  appropriate  to  the  audience.    

Sub-­‐Competencies   Mul1media  Communica1on;  Oral  Communica1on;  Wrieen  Communica1on  

Core  Competencies  for  Intelligence  Analysts*  

*for  all  non-­‐supervisory  personnel  GS-­‐15  and  below  (ICD  610,  2008)