EGU General Assembly 2013 Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand M. De Felice, A. Alessandri, F. Catalano - ENEA, Climate Modeling & Impacts Laboratory
Application of seasonal climate forecasts for electricity demand forecasting: a case study on Italy
Nov 12, 2014
Presented at EGU 2013, Session CL5.8 "Climate Services - Underpinning Science"
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EGU General Assembly 2013
Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand M. De Felice, A. Alessandri, F. Catalano - ENEA, Climate Modeling & Impacts Laboratory
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Original question
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Original question
Can we predict this?
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Electricity Demand Forecast
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Electricity Demand Forecast
✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Electricity Demand Forecast
✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions
✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Electricity Demand Forecast
✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions
✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days
✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Electricity Demand Forecast
✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions
✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days
✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Electricity Demand Forecast
✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions
✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days
✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011)
Why not using them for a smarter/better/more efficient decision-making in energy sector?
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Main Limits
✤ Seasonal Forecast accuracy over Europe
✤ Power systems are not stationary
✤ Critical influence of economic factors on seasonal time scales
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20101
1.5
2
2.5
3x 10
4
months
GW
h
Our Work
✤ Assess the potential use of seasonal climate forecasts over Italy
✤ Summer (JJ) 1990-2007
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Electricity Demand in Italy
North-West and South
1996-2002
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Electricity Demand in Italy
North-West and South
1996-2002
2003-2010
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Electricity Demand in Italy
✤ June and July average demand (provided by TERNA)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Climate Data✤ 2-metres temperature from:
I) ECMWF ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis
II) ECMWF System4 (issued in May)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Our Approach
Z = AS
Z =
2
6664
dNW,1990 . . . dNW,2007
dN,1990 . . . dNW,2007...
dI2,1990 . . . dI2,2007
3
7775S =
2
6664
t1,1990 . . . t1,2007t2,1990 . . . t2,2007
...tn⇥k,1990 . . . tn⇥k,2007
3
7775
A = Z̃S̃0(S̃S̃0)�1
Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Our Approach
Z = AS
Z =
2
6664
dNW,1990 . . . dNW,2007
dN,1990 . . . dNW,2007...
dI2,1990 . . . dI2,2007
3
7775S =
2
6664
t1,1990 . . . t1,2007t2,1990 . . . t2,2007
...tn⇥k,1990 . . . tn⇥k,2007
3
7775
A = Z̃S̃0(S̃S̃0)�1
Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Our Approach
Z̃ = AS̃
Main temperature modes/patterns
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Bootstrap✤ Out-of-sample error estimation via bootstrap procedure
199019911992...
2007
Samplingwith replacement
200419921992...
1999
#1
Samplesnot selected
2001
1993
TR
AIN
ING
TE
ST
ING
199319922001...
2001
#2
1990
2007
199620012000...
1994
#6000
2006
2004
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Results
ERA-INTERIM System4 - May
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Results
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Next steps
✤ Use of seasonal forecasts issued in March - June
✤ Replace ERA-INTERIM with observations (CRU TS)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
Next steps
✤ Extensions to other European (ENTSOE) countries
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AT BE CH DE ES FR GR IT LU NL PT
http://matteodefelice.name/research
www.utmea.enea.it
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