Application of Autonomous Driving Technology to Transit Washington State Transit Insurance Pool Quarterly Board Meeting, Tacoma, WA December 5, 2013 Jerome.

Application of Autonomous Driving Technology to Transit

Washington State Transit Insurance Pool Quarterly Board Meeting, Tacoma, WA

December 5, 2013

Jerome M. Lutin, Ph.D., P.E.Senior Director, Statewide & Regional Planning

(retired) NJ TRANSIT

Transit and Autonomous Vehicle Technology

• Impact of Self-Driving Cars on Transit • Opportunities for Autonomous Driving

Technology in Transit

• Our proposal to FTA

How Autonomous Cars Will Affect The Market for Transit

Transit riders generally fall into two categories, captive and choice • Captive riders – cannot drive or do not have access to a car • Choice riders - generally do own cars, but choose transit

when it can offer a faster, cheaper or more convenient trip. Choice riders can avoid congestion, use time on transit to read, work or sleep, and can avoid parking costs and hassles at their destinations.

Automation Coming in StagesNHTSA Preliminary Policy on Automated Vehicles

Level 2 (Combined function automation) • Automation of at least two control functions designed to work in harmony

(e.g., adaptive cruise control and lane centering) in certain driving situations.

Level 3 (Limited self-driving) • Vehicle controls all safety functions under certain traffic and environmental

conditions. • Driver expected to be available for occasional control. Example: Google car Level 4 (Full self-driving automation) • Vehicle controls all safety functions and monitors conditions for the entire

trip. • Vehicle may operate while unoccupied.

Functional Capabilities of Currently Available Commercial Collision Avoidance

and Driver Assist Packages for Autos

• Adaptive cruise control• Adaptive headlights• Autonomous emergency

braking• Blind spot detection• Cross traffic alert/avoidance• Driver fatigue/inattention

alert• Forward collision avoidance

• Lane departure warning• Lane keeping assist• Parking assist• Pedestrian

detection/avoidance• Rear collision

warning/mitigation• Self-parking• Side impact detection

These Systems are Reducing Claims

Vehicles rated “Superior” in front crash avoidance by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety

• Cadillac ATS sedan and SRX crossover-utility vehicle

• Mercedes-Benz C-Class sedan• Subaru Legacy sedan and Outback wagon• Volvo S60 sedan and XC60 crossover

Impact of Level 2 Technology - Cars

Key Features• Jam assist• Adaptive Cruise Control• Lane-keepingLikely Impacts• Fewer crashes• Lower Stress• Some increase in auto commuting trips

Google Self-Driving Car (Level 3 Automation)and Someone Who Really Needs One!

Impact of Level 3 Technology - Cars

Key Features• Automatic Valet Parking• Limited Self-driving – freeways, pre-mapped or

programmed routes, good weatherLikely Impacts• Significant reduction in center city parking time

and cost• Drivers safely can do some non-driving activities• Increases in longer auto commuting trips

Impact of Level 4 Technology - Cars

Key Features• Unrestricted self-driving• Empty vehicle movements permittedLikely Impacts• Growth in shared automated taxi services• Non-drivers can make low-cost individual trips• Time spent in motion no longer wasted – in-vehicle

experience is transformed• Vehicle trips may exceed person trips

Could This be the Future of Self-Driving Cars?

The self-driving car as an extension of living or working space

You could live in this.

Impact of Self-Driving Cars on Transit

• Self-driving cars will offer mobility to those transit captives who cannot drive, and, in conjunction with car-sharing, can offer mobility to those who do not have ready access to a car.

• For choice riders, self-driving cars can offer amenities similar to those of

transit in terms of how one can use time while traveling, to read, sleep or work.

• According to studies, automated cars could double highway capacity. Couple that with the ability to self-park, and the transit advantage could melt away.

• So the impact on many transit systems could be huge.

Potential Applications of Autonomous Driving Technology to Bus Transit

How can transit benefit?

Use Autonomous Collision Avoidance Technology to Address a BIG CURRENT

Problem

Good News! Travel by Bus is getting safer!

Good News! Injuries have been trending down!

Terrible News! Claims are going through the roof!

NTD 2011 Bus Casualty and Liability

Expense for All Transit Agencies

Casualty and

Liability Amount

General

Administration

$432,228,288

Vehicle

Maintenance

$50,847,722

Sub-Total Casualty and

Liability

$483,076,010

Maximum Available Buses

59,871

Sub-Total Casualty and

Liability Amount Per Bus

$8,069

Casualty and Liability Claims are a Huge Drain on the Industry

• For the 10 year period 2002-2011, more than $4.1 Billion was spent on casualty and liability claims

• For many self-insured transit agencies these expenses are direct “out-of-pocket”

• Large reserves for claims must be budgeted• Claims experience is reflected in insurance

premiums• There are gaps in data reporting

Costs of Bus Crashes – Industry WideTangible – reported as casualty and liability expense

• Physical damage insurance premiums • Recovery of physical damage losses for public liability and

property damage insurance premiums • Insured and uninsured public liability and property damage

settlement pay outs and recoveries • Other corporate insurance premiums (e.g., fidelity bonds,

business records insurance)

Costs of Bus Crashes – Industry Wide

Tangible -likely not reported as casualty and liability expense

• Accident investigation• D & A testing• Emergency services response• Hearings and discipline• In-house legal services• In-house vehicle repair• Lost fare revenue• Overtime• Passenger and service delays• Sick time• Spare vehicles and replacements• Vehicle recovery

Costs of Bus Crashes – Industry Wide

Intangible• Human loss and suffering• Media attention• Good will

Level 2 Automation - Potential Impact for Transit – Claims Reduction

• Adaptive Cruise Control• Autonomous emergency braking• Blind spot monitoring (for vehicles and

pedestrians)• Driver fatigue and attentiveness monitoring• Lane keeping assistance• Obstacle detection and avoidance• Rear collision warning and mitigation

The Cost of Installing an Autonomous Collision Avoidance System on a Bus Could be Recovered in as Little as One

Year Through Reductions in Casualty and Liability Claims

Potential for Cost Savings in Annual Claims Paid by Installing a Collision Avoidance System on

NJ TRANSIT Buses

EstimatedAverage Annual Claims Reduction per Bus

Collision Avoidance System Installation CostsBased on Mercedes Intelligent Drive System

$2,800 per Bus – 2014 Base Price

$5,600 per Bus – 2x Base Price

$8,400 per Bus – 3x Base Price

$11,200 per Bus – 4x Base Price

$14,000 per Bus – 5x Base Price

(%) ($)

Estimated Years to Recoup Installation Cost

10 484.60 5.8 11.6 17.3 23.1 28.820 969.20 2.9 5.8 8.7 11.6 14.430 1,453.80 1.9 3.9 5.8 7.7 9.640 1,938.40 1.4 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.250 2,423.00 1.1 2.3 3.5 4.6 5.860 2,907.60 1.0 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.870 3,392.20 0.8 1.7 2.5 3.3 4.180 3,876.80 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.9 3.690 4,361.40 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.2

Potential Impact for Transit – Level 3 Automation

Key Features• Co-operative Adaptive Cruise Control• Lane keeping• Precision dockingPotential Impacts• Increased capacity in high volume bus

corridors

A Capacity Bonus for NJ TRANSITExclusive Bus Lane (XBL) to New York City

Source: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey

Port Authority Bus Terminal (PABT)New York City

Source: Google Maps 2013

Potential Increased Capacity of Exclusive Bus Lane (XBL) Using Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC)

(Assumes 45 toot (13.7 m) buses @ with 57 seats)

Average Interval

Between Buses

(seconds)

Average Spacing

Between Buses (ft)

Average Spacing

Between Buses (m)

Buses Per Hour

Additional Buses per

Hour

Seated Passengers Per Hour

Increase in Seated

Passengers per Hour

1 6 2 3,600 2,880 205,200 164,160

2 47 14 1,800 1,080 102,600 61,560

3 109 33 1,200 480 68,400 27,360

4 150 46 900 180 51,300 10,260

5 (Base) 212 64 720 - 41,040 -

Potential Impact for Transit – Level 4 Automation

Key Features• Bus capable of fully automated operationPotential Impacts• Unstaffed non-revenue operation • Paired or bus “train” operation possible• BRT systems can emulate rail in capacity at

less cost

Connected Vehicle and Autonomous Driving Technology for Bus Platooning –

Leader/Close-Follower Concept

Schematic – Wireless Short-Range Connections Between Busses Interface with Automated Driving and Passenger

Systems Functions

Opportunities for Autonomous Driving Technology in Transit - Recommendations

• Institutional Response • Technological Response

Recommendation - Transit Institutional Response

• Promote shared-use autonomous cars as a replacement for transit on many bus routes and for service to persons with disabilities

• Exit markets where transit load factors are too low to justify operating a transit vehicle

• Concentrate transit resources in corridors where more

traffic and parking will be too costly and too congested, and where transit can increase the people carrying capacity of a lane beyond that of a general traffic lane

Recommendation - Transit Institutional Response- Continued

• Focus attention on land use – work with partners to create Transit-Oriented Development that limits the need for driving and where trip-end density will provide enough riders

– Create compact activity centers – Allow higher density– Promote mixed use development– Make streets pedestrian and bike friendly– Manage parking ratios and configuration

Recommendations- Transit Technological Response

What we need to do

Prepare for Technological Evolution and Obsolescence

• Buses last from 12 to 18 years or more• Computer technology becomes obsolete in 18

months to two years• Expect to replace components and systems

several times during the life of a bus• Do not expect replacement parts to still be

available • Sometimes stuff does not work as expected

Need Open Architectures and Standards

• Avoid problems of legacy systems and sole

source procurements• Modular systems and components• Standard interfaces between systems and

components• Multiple sources and innovation from vendors• “Plug and play”

Federal Transit Administration Notice of Funding Availability

• Federal Register October 1, 2013• Seeking Research Development Demonstration &

Deployment Projects – 3 Categories– Operational Safety– Resiliency– All Hazards Emergency Response & Recovery

• $29 million available• Grants from $500k to $5 million• Open to anyone• Deadline December 2, 2013

Proposal Title: Application of Autonomous Collision Avoidance Technology to Transit Buses to Reduce Claims,

Injuries and Fatalities

Submitted by Princeton UniversityIn association with:

American Public Transportation AssociationGreater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority

Washington State Transit Insurance PoolJerome M. Lutin, PhD, LLC

ENDORSING/SUPPORTING ENTITIESWashington State Transit Insurance Pool On Behalf of 25 Member Agencies:

Asotin County Public Transportation Benefit AreaBen Franklin TransitClallam TransitColumbia County Public TransportationCommunity TransitC-TranEverett TransitGrant TransitGrays Harbor TransitIntercity TransitIsland TransitJefferson Transit

Kitsap TransitLink TransitMason County TransitPacific TransitPierce TransitPullman TransitRiver Cities TransitSkagit TransitSpokane TransitTwin TransitValley TransitWhatcom TransitYakima Transit

ENDORSING/SUPPORTING ENTITIES

California Transit Indemnity Pool On Behalf of 33 Member Agencies

Ohio Transit Risk Pool On Behalf of 10 Member Agencies

Virginia Transit Liability Pool On Behalf of 7 Member Agencies

1. Create a broad, inclusive stakeholder group of transit agencies and other members of the transit industry, and achieve a comprehensive view of the problem and potential solutions from all sides

– representatives of transit agencies– risk management and insurance providers – consultants – vehicle manufacturers – systems developers – standards organizations – vendors– motor vehicle regulators– USDOT officials

Expert Technical Working Groups (ETWG’s)

• Claims analysis and data collection• Human factors/operations/safety• Bus interfaces/systems/maintainability• Autonomous systems and controls• Testing and certification

2. Conduct a research assessment of why casualty and liability claims are increasing and determine the potential for automated collision avoidance systems to reduce fatalities, injuries and claims

• historical trends• reasons that the costs of collisions are increasing• relationship between costs and types of accidents• link individual claims and other expenses with individual

incidents • assemble an accurate record of the total agency cost of

each collision• identify cost-effective autonomous collision avoidance

technologies

3. ETWG’s develop functional requirements and standards to allow installation of autonomous collision avoidance technology (ACAT) and driver assist technology on new transit buses and retrofit of existing buses

• define the capabilities and performance requirements for autonomous collision avoidance technology for buses

• allow autonomous collision avoidance technologies to be retrofitted to buses, using competitive procurements and “plug and play” interfaces

• balloted set of standards for autonomous collision avoidance

technology and for the electromechanical and data on-board interfaces needed to host the technology

4. Develop a prototype test bed that would allow developers of innovative collision avoidance and driver assist technologies to work with transit agencies and researchers to expedite development and deployment

• on-board test-bed network using electromechanical and data interface standards developed in Phase 3, to accommodate the installation and testing of prototype autonomous collision avoidance technologies

• collision avoidance system simulator that can be installed on a new or retrofitted bus to test the bus’s ability to host, and autonomously respond to inputs from, a collision avoidance system

• data logger and analyzer that will monitor multiple performance parameters of both the bus and the autonomous collision avoidance technology and produce reports that can be used to certify compliance with the performance requirements and standards

• extensive field operational test of all three elements

Contribution from Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority (GCRTA)

• Four technical staff members, one to participate in each of four Expert Technical Working Groups for the duration of the project, representing approximately 10% time for each staff member

• Staff time for data collection on collisions and claims, representing 10% time for

two staff members for six months • Two buses to be used as test beds for installation and testing of autonomous

collision avoidance technology for a period of approximately two years. • Approximately 3,600 square feet of space in our garage for two years for

prototype development • Technical support from bus maintenance and operations staff representing

approximately 50% time for two technicians

Next Steps

• Wait to hear about FTA grant• If awarded, get busy!• If not awarded-find out why– Revise proposal– Resubmit– Look for alternative funding– Keep pressing FTA– Don’t give up – This is worth doing!

Thank You

Jerry Lutin [email protected]