APPLIANCE STANDARDS BIG SAVINGS COME FULL CIRCLE PRESENTERS Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael, Cadeo Group Angie Lee, Navigant Ben Barrington, Cadeo Group June 2, 2015
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APPLIANCE STANDARDS BIG SAVINGS COME FULL CIRCLE PRESENTERS Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael, Cadeo Group Angie Lee, Navigant Ben Barrington, Cadeo Group.
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Slide 1
APPLIANCE STANDARDS BIG SAVINGS COME FULL CIRCLE PRESENTERS
Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael, Cadeo Group Angie Lee, Navigant
Ben Barrington, Cadeo Group June 2, 2015
Slide 2
ResultsToolsOverviewImpacts 2
Slide 3
OVERVIEW 3
Slide 4
4 15 NEW MODELS 375 Residential Non-Residential
Multi-Sector
Slide 5
APPLIANCE STANDARDS 1 million homes
Slide 6
45 STANDARDS 1,507 aMW (2010-2034) 6
Slide 7
IMPACTS 7
Slide 8
2008 External Power Supplies Commercial Unit Heaters 2009 Metal
Halide Lamp Fixtures Walk-in Coolers and Freezers 2010 Commercial
Refrigeration Equipment Commercial Package AC and HP including
Single Package Vertical Units 2011 2012 Dehumidifiers Incandescent
Reflector Lamps General Service Fluorescent Lamps Kitchen Ranges
& Ovens Commercial Packaged Boilers Beverage Vending Machines
General Service Incandescent Lamps Commercial Refrigeration
Equipment WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT STANDARDS?
Slide 9
9 2015 Clothes Washers Clothes Dryers Water Heaters Small
Electric Motors 2016 Electric Motors Distribution Transformers
External Power Supplies Microwave Ovens 2017 Walk-in Coolers &
Freezers Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Metal Halide Lamp
Fixtures 2018 Ice Makers 2013 Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts 2014
Refrigerators & Freezers Room AC 2019 Furnace Fans
Slide 10
STANDARDS & PROGRAMS INTERACT 10 DOE Standards Emerging
Tech Support Market Pull and Demand Creation
Slide 11
DIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX 11 New Standard Less Efficient
More Efficient Before Less Efficient More Efficient New Standard
Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Roll-Up
Slide 12
INDIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX 12 New Standard Less
Efficient More Efficient Before New Standard Less Efficient More
Efficient Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient
Roll-Up
Slide 13
PRODUCT MIX IMPACTS 13 $1,600 $800
Slide 14
STRATEGY 1: FILL IN GAPS 14 Wattage Range
Slide 15
STRATEGY 2: GO BEYOND % Improvement Over 2014 Market Baseline
Standard-size vented clothes dryers 3% Current Standards 32%
Maximum feasible efficiency 15
Slide 16
TOOLS 16
Slide 17
MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Standardized
TemplatesFamiliarity 17
Slide 18
MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Centralized ModelsCohesion
18
Slide 19
MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES GuidesUsability 19
Slide 20
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 20 Shipments Change in Unit Energy
Consumption Incremental Savings
Slide 21
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 21 Annual kWh Per Unit Model
Pre-Case Shipment UEC Model Post-Case Shipment UEC
Slide 22
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 22 Shipments Change in Unit Energy
Consumption Incremental Savings
Slide 23
FLOW 23 STOCK
Slide 24
24 INSTALLED STOCK IN 2006INSTALLED STOCK IN 2007INSTALLED
STOCK IN 2008INSTALLED STOCK IN 2009INSTALLED STOCK IN 2010
Slide 25
STOCK TURNOVER MODEL OVERVIEW 25 Shipments Stock Lifetime
Saturation Housing Stock or Commercial Floor Space
Slide 26
Shipments Incremental Savings SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 26
Change in Unit Energy Consumption
Slide 27
27 Weighted Average UECs Usage Statistics Efficiency
Distributions Product Class Distributions
Slide 28
ACCUMULATED REPLACEMENTS IN INSTALLED STOCK 28
Slide 29
INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM REPLACEMENTS DURING STOCK TURNOVER
29
Slide 30
NEW CONSTRUCTION SHIPMENTS 30
Slide 31
INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM NEW SHIPMENTS 31
Slide 32
INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FOLLOWING STANDARDS 32
Slide 33
RESULTS 33
Slide 34
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 34 End
UseResidentialNon-Residential Analysis CycleRound 1Round 2Round
1Round 2 Refrigeration Water Heaters HVAC Lighting EPS/BC Home
Appliances Motors Transformers Miscellaneous
Slide 35
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar
RESIDENTIAL Other Heat Pumps Freezers Refrigerators Water Heaters
8% 5% 28% 54% 2015
Slide 36
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar
RESIDENTIAL Other Freezers Electric Furnace Fans Refrigerators
Water Heaters 12% 5% 14% 24% 45% 2020
Slide 37
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar
RESIDENTIAL Other Freezers Refrigerators Water Heaters Electric
Furnace Fans 5% 13% 18% 51% 2034
Slide 38
85% Distribution Transformers 0% 2% 6% 7% Regional Incremental
Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Electric
Motors Walk-In Coolers & Freezers Commercial Washer 2015
Slide 39
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar
NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Commercial Ref. Equipments Walk-In Coolers
& Freezers Electric Motors Distribution Transformers 5% 2% 15%
20% 58% 2020
Slide 40
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar
NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Commercial Washer Walk-In Coolers &
Freezers Electric Motors Distribution Transformers 1% 3% 20% 75%
2034
Slide 41
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL
Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers 35% 65% 2015
Slide 42
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL
Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers External Power Supplies 36%
48% 16% 2020
Slide 43
Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL
Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers External Power Supplies 17%
31% 52% 2034