Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft Appendix A Hydrology Calibration and Validation Graphs and Tables October 2005 Prepared for: USEPA Region 9 Los Angeles Regional Water Quality Control Board Prepared by: Tetra Tech, Inc. October 2005 A-1
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Appendix A Hydrology Calibration and Validation Graphs and Tables · 2012-04-09 · Daily Time Series Comparison Graph 2. Monthly Timeseries Comparison Graphs 3. Seasonal Trends Calibration
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Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Appendix A Hydrology Calibration and Validation
Graphs and Tables
October 2005
Prepared for: USEPA Region 9
Los Angeles Regional Water Quality Control Board
Prepared by: Tetra Tech, Inc.
October 2005 A-1
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
October 2005 A-2
Figure A-1. Calibration Results for USGS Station 11089500 at Fullerton Creek
1. Daily Time Series Comparison Graph
2. Monthly Timeseries Comparison Graphs
3. Seasonal Trends Calibration Graphs
0
50
100
150
200
250
7/1994 1/1995 7/1995 1/1996 7/1996 1/1997 7/1997
Date
Flow
(cfs
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Dai
ly R
ainf
all (
in)
Rainfall at CA1057 (in) Observed Flow at Fullerton Cr - USGS11089500 (cfs) Modeled Flow at sws56 (cfs)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
7/94 1/95 7/95 1/96 7/96 1/97 7/97
Month
Flow
(cfs
)
0
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14
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA1057 (in)
Observed Flow at Fullerton Cr - USGS11089500 (cfs)
Modeled Flow at sws56 (cfs)
y = 1.032x - 0.225R2 = 0.978
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (07/01/1994 - 09/30/1997)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
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Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.944x + 0.273R2 = 0.981
y = 0.960x + 0.424R2 = 0.915
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-1. Calibration Error Analysis for USGS Station 11089500 at Fullerton Creek LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 563.25-Year Analysis Period: 7/1/1994 - 9/30/1997Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 7.07 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 7.45
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 6.98 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 6.29Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 0.00 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 0.50
Errors (Simulated-Observed) Error Statistics Recommended CriteriaError in total volume: -5.04 10Error in 50% lowest flows: -99.90 10Error in 10% highest flows: 11.04 15Seasonal volume error - Summer: -83.05 30Seasonal volume error - Fall: 27.40 30Seasonal volume error - Winter: -2.66 30Seasonal volume error - Spring: -48.62 30Error in storm volumes: 11.08 20Error in summer storm volumes: -12.04 50
October 2005 A-3
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Figure A-2. Calibration Results for USGS Station 11088500 at Brea Creek
1. Daily Time Series Comparison Graph
2. Monthly Timeseries Comparison Graphs
3. Seasonal Trends Calibration Graphs
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
7/1994 1/1995 7/1995 1/1996 7/1996 1/1997 7/1997
Date
Flow
(cfs
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Dai
ly R
ainf
all (
in)
Rainfall at CA1057 (in) Observed Flow at Brea Ck - USGS11088500 (cfs) Modeled Flow at sws59 (cfs)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
7/94 1/95 7/95 1/96 7/96 1/97 7/97
Month
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
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14
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA1057 (in)
Observed Flow at Brea Ck - USGS11088500 (cfs)
Modeled Flow at sws59 (cfs)
y = 0.922x + 0.513R2 = 0.937
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (07/01/1994 - 09/30/1997)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.990x + 0.212R2 = 0.954
y = 0.374x + 0.988R2 = 0.766
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
October 2005 A-4
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-2. Calibration Error Analysis for USGS Station 11088500 at Brea Creek LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 593.25-Year Analysis Period: 7/1/1994 - 9/30/1997Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 40.59 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 41.48
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 32.34 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 33.70Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 0.38 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 1.42
Rainfall at CA5085 (in) Observed Flow at F304 (cfs) Modeled Flow at SWS83 (cfs)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1/98 7/98 1/99 7/99 1/00 7/00 1/01 7/01 1/02 7/02
Month
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
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12
14
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA5085 (in) Observed Flow at F304 (cfs)
Modeled Flow at SWS83 (cfs)
y = 0.556x + 1.184R2 = 0.936
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (01/01/1998 - 12/30/2002)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 1.575x - 0.291R2 = 0.967
y = 0.470x + 1.476R2 = 0.018
0
5
10
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25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-3. Calibration Error Analysis for LADPW Station F304-R at Walnut Creek
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 835-Year Analysis Period: 1/1/1998 - 12/31/2002Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 38.07 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 58.46
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 35.91 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 50.79Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 0.55 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 0.77
Rainfall at CA7926 (in) Observed Flow at F244B (cfs)
Modeled Flow at SWS99 (cfs)
y = 2.118x - 7.928R2 = 0.808
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (10/01/1992 - 09/30/1995)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
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16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.342x + 8.561R2 = 0.874
y = 0.012x + 3.132R2 = 0.036
0
50
100
150
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250
300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Figure A-4. Calibration Results for LADPW Station F274B-R at Dalton Wash
October 2005 A-8
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-4. Calibration Error Analysis for LADPW Station F274B-R at Dalton Wash LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 993-Year Analysis Period: 10/1/1992 - 9/30/1995Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 175.35 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 101.65
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 154.81 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 80.61Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 0.02 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 2.41
Rainfall at CA9666 (in) Observed Flow at San Jose Cr LADPW F312-R (cfs) Modeled Flow at sws68 (cfs)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
10/92 1/93 4/93 7/93 10/93 1/94 4/94 7/94
Month
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
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10
12
14
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA9666 (in)
Observed Flow at San Jose Cr LADPW F312-R (cfs)
Modeled Flow at sws68 (cfs)
y = 0.455x + 51.532R2 = 0.819
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (10/01/1992 - 09/30/1994)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 1.584x - 62.651R2 = 0.887
y = 0.222x + 4.228R2 = 0.346
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
October 2005 A-10
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-5. Calibration Error Analysis for LADPW Station F312B-R at San Jose Channel
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 682-Year Analysis Period: 10/1/1992 - 9/30/1994Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 392.55 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 323.42
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 175.90 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 260.60Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 75.51 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 11.61
Errors (Simulated-Observed) Error Statistics Recommended CriteriaError in total volume: 21.37 10Error in 50% lowest flows: 550.55 10Error in 10% highest flows: -32.50 15Seasonal volume error - Summer: 509.77 30Seasonal volume error - Fall: 22.24 30Seasonal volume error - Winter: -12.44 30Seasonal volume error - Spring: 159.70 30Error in storm volumes: -29.06 20Error in summer storm volumes: 443.94 50
October 2005 A-11
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
1. Daily Time Series Comparison Graph
2. Monthly Timeseries Comparison Graphs
3. Seasonal Trends Calibration Graphs
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
7/1994 1/1995 7/1995 1/1996 7/1996 1/1997 7/1997
Date
Flow
(cfs
)
0
1
2
3
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7
8
9
10
Dai
ly R
ainf
all (
in)
Rainfall at CA9666 (in) Observed Flow at 11087020 (cfs) Modeled Flow at swsd18 (cfs)
0
200
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800
1000
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1400
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1800
7/94 1/95 7/95 1/96 7/96 1/97 7/97
Month
Flow
(cfs
)
0
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6
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16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA9666 (in) Observed Flow at 11087020 (cfs)
Modeled Flow at swsd18 (cfs)
y = 0.782x + 26.451R2 = 0.674
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
0 200 400 600 800 1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (07/01/1994 - 09/30/1997)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.931x + 26.683R2 = 0.910
y = 0.154x + 57.057R2 = 0.406
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Figure A-6. Calibration Results for USGS Station 11087020 at San Gabriel River above Whittier Narrows
October 2005 A-12
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-6. Calibration Error Analysis for USGS Station 11087020 at San Gabriel River above Whittier Narrows
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 183.25-Year Analysis Period: 7/1/1994 - 9/30/1997Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 6.50 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 7.05
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 4.31 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 4.58Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 0.32 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 0.83
Rainfall at CA9666 (in) Observed Flow at F262 (cfs) Modeled Flow at sws8 (cfs)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1/98 7/98 1/99 7/99 1/00 7/00 1/01 7/01 1/02 7/02
Month
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA9666 (in) Observed Flow at F262 (cfs)
Modeled Flow at sws8 (cfs)
y = 2.471x + 57.562R2 = 0.714
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (01/01/1998 - 12/30/2002)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.238x - 8.255R2 = 0.874
y = 0.000R2 = #N/A
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Figure A-7. Calibration Results for USGS Station F262C-R at San Gabriel River above Florence Avenue & Firestone Blvd.
October 2005 A-14
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-7. Calibration Error Analysis for USGS Station F262C-R at San Gabriel River above Florence Avenue & Firestone Blvd.
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 85-Year Analysis Period: 1/1/1998 - 12/31/2002Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 421.29 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 59.80
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 377.86 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 59.80Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 0.00 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 0.00
Rainfall at CA5085 (in) Observed Flow at F42 (cfs) Modeled Flow at sws2 (cfs)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1/98 7/98 1/99 7/99 1/00 7/00 1/01 7/01 1/02 7/02
Month
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA5085 (in) Observed Flow at F42 (cfs)
Modeled Flow at sws2 (cfs)
y = 1.437x + 24.548R2 = 0.539
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
0 200 400 600 800 1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (01/01/1998 - 12/30/2002)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.319x + 65.409R2 = 0.772
y = -0.049x + 119.329R2 = 0.009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Figure A-8. Calibration Results for LADPW Station F42B-R at San Gabriel River above Spring Street
October 2005 A-16
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-8. Calibration Error Analysis for LADPW Station F42B-R at San Gabriel River above Spring Street
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 25-Year Analysis Period: 1/1/1998 - 12/31/2002Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 1038.51 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 643.63
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 469.76 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 207.54Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 245.82 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 141.21
Errors (Simulated-Observed) Error Statistics Recommended CriteriaError in total volume: 61.35 10Error in 50% lowest flows: 74.08 10Error in 10% highest flows: 126.34 15Seasonal volume error - Summer: 5.74 30Seasonal volume error - Fall: 12.92 30Seasonal volume error - Winter: 107.62 30Seasonal volume error - Spring: 95.49 30Error in storm volumes: 62.03 20Error in summer storm volumes: -50.10 50
October 2005 A-17
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
1. Daily Time Series Comparison Graph
2. Monthly Timeseries Comparison Graphs
3. Seasonal Trends Calibration Graphs
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7/1994 1/1995 7/1995 1/1996 7/1996 1/1997 7/1997
Date
Flow
(cfs
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Dai
ly R
ainf
all (
in)
Rainfall at CA7779 (in) Observed Flow at 11085000 (cfs) Modeled Flow at sws24 (cfs)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
7/94 1/95 7/95 1/96 7/96 1/97 7/97
Month
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA7779 (in) Observed Flow at 11085000 (cfs)
Modeled Flow at sws24 (cfs)
y = 0.658x + 85.729R2 = 0.314
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (07/01/1994 - 09/30/1997)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.492x - 6.084R2 = 0.501
y = 0.009x - 0.144R2 = 0.381
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Figure A-9. Calibration Results for USGS 11085000 at San Gabriel River below Santa Fe Dam, near Baldwin Park
October 2005 A-18
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-9. Calibration Error Analysis for USGS 11085000 at San Gabriel River below Santa Fe
Dam, near Baldwin Park LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 243.25-Year Analysis Period: 7/1/1994 - 9/30/1997Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 6.97 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 3.12
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 4.40 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 2.95Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 0.47 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 0.00
Errors (Simulated-Observed) Error Statistics Recommended CriteriaError in total volume: 123.02 10Error in 50% lowest flows: 46600877.83 10Error in 10% highest flows: 49.29 15Seasonal volume error - Summer: 95.48 30Seasonal volume error - Fall: 3665.13 30Seasonal volume error - Winter: 107.79 30Seasonal volume error - Spring: 58.30 30Error in storm volumes: -16.26 20Error in summer storm volumes: -85.72 50
October 2005 A-19
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
October 2005 A-20
1. Daily Time Series Comparison Graph
2. Monthly Timeseries Comparison Graphs
3. Seasonal Trends Calibration Graphs
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
7/1994 10/1994 1/1995 4/1995 7/1995
Date
Flow
(cfs
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Dai
ly R
ainf
all (
in)
Rainfall at CA7779 (in) Observed Flow at San Gabriel LADPW F190-R (cfs) Modeled Flow at sws26 (cfs)
0
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800
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1200
7/94 10/94 1/95 4/95 7/95
Month
Flow
(cfs
)
0
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14
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA7779 (in)
Observed Flow at San Gabriel LADPW F190-R (cfs)
Modeled Flow at sws26 (cfs)
y = 0.626x + 39.355R2 = 0.448
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (07/01/1994 - 09/30/1995)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
200
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1400
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
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16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.673x + 122.241R2 = 0.415
y = 0.749x + 80.249R2 = 0.3520
200
400
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1200
1400
1600
1800
0 200 400 600 800 1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Figure A-10. Calibration Results for F190-R at San Gabriel River at Foothill Blvd
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-10. Calibration Error Analysis for F190-R at San Gabriel River at Foothill Blvd
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 261.25-Year Analysis Period: 7/1/1994 - 9/30/1995Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 859.37 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 1068.26
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 511.85 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 528.28Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 54.93 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 8.87
Errors (Simulated-Observed) Error Statistics Recommended CriteriaError in total volume: -19.55 10Error in 50% lowest flows: 519.48 10Error in 10% highest flows: -3.11 15Seasonal volume error - Summer: -34.35 30Seasonal volume error - Fall: -65.18 30Seasonal volume error - Winter: 5.55 30Seasonal volume error - Spring: -59.62 30Error in storm volumes: -39.00 20Error in summer storm volumes: -95.06 50
October 2005 A-21
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
1. Daily Time Series Comparison Graph
2. Monthly Timeseries Comparison Graphs
3. Seasonal Trends Calibration Graphs
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
7/1994 10/1994 1/1995 4/1995 7/1995
Date
Flow
(cfs
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
Dai
ly R
ainf
all (
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Rainfall at CA7779 (in) Observed Flow at San Gabriel LADPW U8-R (cfs) Modeled Flow at sws29 (cfs)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
7/94 10/94 1/95 4/95 7/95
Month
Flow
(cfs
)
0
5
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15
20
25
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA7779 (in)
Observed Flow at San Gabriel LADPW U8-R (cfs)
Modeled Flow at sws29 (cfs)
y = 0.395x + 88.262R2 = 0.104
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (07/01/1994 - 09/30/1995)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
200
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600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.204x + 168.973R2 = 0.070
y = 0.028x + 132.898R2 = 0.0010
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Figure A-11. Calibration Results for U8-R at San Gabriel River below Morris Dam
October 2005 A-22
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-11. Calibration Error Analysis for U8-R at San Gabriel River below Morris Dam
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 291.25-Year Analysis Period: 7/1/1994 - 9/30/1995Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 759.79 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 842.30
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 454.75 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 359.48Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 46.59 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 2.59
Errors (Simulated-Observed) Error Statistics Recommended CriteriaError in total volume: -9.80 10Error in 50% lowest flows: 1697.46 10Error in 10% highest flows: 26.50 15Seasonal volume error - Summer: -54.03 30Seasonal volume error - Fall: -80.16 30Seasonal volume error - Winter: 97.74 30Seasonal volume error - Spring: -69.48 30Error in storm volumes: -25.20 20Error in summer storm volumes: -95.99 50
October 2005 A-23
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
October 2005 A-24
Figure A-12. Calibration Results for F354-R at Coyote Creek below Spring Street
1. Daily Time Series Comparison Graph
2. Monthly Timeseries Comparison Graphs
3. Seasonal Trends Calibration Graphs
0
200
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1200
1400
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12/2001 3/2002 6/2002 9/2002 12/2002
Date
Flow
(cfs
)
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1
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9
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Dai
ly R
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all (
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Rainfall at CA5085 (in) Observed Flow at F354 1 Modeled Flow at sws37 (cfs)
0
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140
12/01 3/02 6/02 9/02 12/02
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Flow
(cfs
)
0
0.2
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1
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1.6
1.8
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA5085 (in) Observed Flow at F354 1
Modeled Flow at sws37 (cfs)
y = 0.102x - 0.858R2 = 0.473
0
20
40
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Observed Flow 1
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (12/01/2001 - 12/30/2002)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
10
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50
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80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
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16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 4.695x + 20.192R2 = 0.666
y = -14.678x + 19.299R2 = 0.090
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Observed Flow 1
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-12. Calibration Error Analysis for F354-R at Coyote Creek below Spring Street
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 371.08-Year Analysis Period: 12/1/2001 - 12/31/2002Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 35.81 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 152.35
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 30.73 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 90.26Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 2.29 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 17.24
Observed Flow at Fullerton Cr - USGS11089500 (cfs)
Modeled Flow at sws56 (cfs)
y = 1.025x - 0.069R2 = 0.962
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (10/01/1997 - 09/30/2002)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
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6
8
10
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14
16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.963x + 0.095R2 = 0.984
y = 1.551x + 0.394R2 = 0.507
0
1
2
3
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6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
October 2005 A-26
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-13. Validation Error Analysis for USGS Station 11089500 at Fullerton Creek
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 565-Year Analysis Period: 10/1/1997 - 9/30/2002Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 5.91 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 5.94
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 5.83 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 4.92Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 0.00 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 0.47
Flow (10/01/1997 - 09/30/2002)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.991x + 1.146R2 = 0.946
y = 0.441x + 1.534R2 = 0.901
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-14. Validation Error Analysis for USGS Station 11088500 at Brea Creek
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 595-Year Analysis Period: 10/1/1997 - 9/30/2002Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 35.28 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 40.32
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 29.43 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 29.56Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 0.28 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 2.88
Rainfall at CA9666 (in) Observed Flow at San Jose Cr LADPW F312-R (cfs) Modeled Flow at sws68 (cfs)
0
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1/98 7/98 1/99 7/99 1/00 7/00 1/01 7/01 1/02 7/02
Month
Flow
(cfs
)
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18
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Rainfall at CA9666 (in)
Observed Flow at San Jose Cr LADPW F312-R (cfs)
Modeled Flow at sws68 (cfs)
y = 0.443x + 43.764R2 = 0.281
0
50
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300
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450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (01/01/1998 - 09/30/2002)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
50
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
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16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.681x + 14.753R2 = 0.393
y = -0.093x + 39.698R2 = 0.003
0
50
100
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250
0 50 100 150 200 250
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Figure A-15. Validation Results for LADPW Station F312B-R at San Jose Channel
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-15. Validation Error Analysis for LADPW Station F312B-R at San Jose Channel
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 684.75-Year Analysis Period: 1/1/1998 - 9/30/2002Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 337.57 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 294.64
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 125.31 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 150.68Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 83.01 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 31.19
Rainfall at CA9666 (in) Observed Flow at 11087020 (cfs)
Modeled Flow at swsd18 (cfs)
y = 0.777x + 14.529R2 = 0.785
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
0 200 400 600 800 1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (10/01/1997 - 09/30/2002)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
100
200
300
400
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600
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
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8
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16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.860x + 42.819R2 = 0.793
y = 0.070x + 70.639R2 = 0.017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Figure A-16. Validation Results for USGS Station 11087020 at San Gabriel River above Whittier Narrows
October 2005 A-32
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-16. Validation Error Analysis for USGS Station 11087020 at San Gabriel River above Whittier Narrows
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 185-Year Analysis Period: 10/1/1997 - 9/30/2002Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 5.44 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 6.30
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 3.42 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 3.52Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 0.40 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 0.79
Rainfall at CA7779 (in) Observed Flow at 11085000 (cfs)
Modeled Flow at sws24 (cfs)
y = 0.978x + 54.584R2 = 0.693
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Flow (10/01/1997 - 09/30/2002)Line of Equal ValueBest-Fit Line
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
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450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth
Flow
(cfs
)
0
2
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6
8
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16
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (in
)
Average Monthly Rainfall (in) Data: Median-25th-75th%-ile Model: Median-25th-75th%-ile
y = 0.443x - 4.145R2 = 0.613
y = 0.000R2 = #N/A0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Observed Flow (cfs)
Mod
eled
Flo
w (c
fs)
Data vs Model (Mean Flow)Data vs Model (Median Flow)Line of Equal Value
Figure A-17. Validation Results for USGS 11085000 at San Gabriel River below Santa Fe Dam, near Baldwin Park
October 2005 A-34
Metals TMDLs for the San Gabriel River Watershed – Draft
Table A-17. Validation Error Analysis for USGS 11085000 at San Gabriel River below Santa Fe Dam, near Baldwin Park
LSPC Observed Flow Gage
REACH OUTFLOW FROM SUBBASIN 245-Year Analysis Period: 10/1/1997 - 9/30/2002Flow volumes are (inches/year) for upstream drainage area
Total Simulated In-stream Flow: 5.05 Total Observed In-stream Flow: 2.00
Total of simulated highest 10% flows: 3.12 Total of Observed highest 10% flows: 1.95Total of Simulated lowest 50% flows: 0.19 Total of Observed Lowest 50% flows: 0.00