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This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States since 1856 Volume Author/Editor: Frederick R. Macaulay Volume Publisher: NBER Volume ISBN: 0-87014-032-9 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/maca38-1 Publication Date: 1938 Chapter Title: Appendix A Tables Chapter Author: Frederick R. Macaulay Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c6350 Chapter pages in book: (p. 241 - 548)
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APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 1: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the NationalBureau of Economic Research

Volume Title: Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movementsof Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United Statessince 1856

Volume Author/Editor: Frederick R. Macaulay

Volume Publisher: NBER

Volume ISBN: 0-87014-032-9

Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/maca38-1

Publication Date: 1938

Chapter Title: Appendix A Tables

Chapter Author: Frederick R. Macaulay

Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c6350

Chapter pages in book: (p. 241 - 548)

Page 2: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

APPENDICES

Page 3: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

(1

Page 4: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3

APPENDIX A

THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and othermathematical material presented in Appendix A are, in most in-stances, given to at least one more decimal place than are theoriginal data on which they are based.

In some of the mathematical material (such as the sigma equa-tions of Tables 7 and 8 and the sigma 'slopes' of Table 9) extradecimals are given because cumulative multiplication was one ofthe purposes for which the material was calculated and, with suchcumulation, if the number of decimals be'too small, accuracy de-creases rapidly. But the primary defense of such a procedureas calculating and printing one more decimal in a. graduation (andin the deviations of the data from that graduation) than occur inthe original data is that some readers may be interested in thegraduation from a purely mathematical standpoint. While theeconomist might' ask (particularly as to deviations) why moredecimals were included than are warranted by the accuracy ofthe data and the adequacy of the graduation formula, the studentof graduation per se might as reasonably inquire why the extradecimal was dropped. He might well be primarily interested instudying the significance and mathematical peculiarities of theresults obtained by using the formula; and, for most phases ofsuch a study, the complete accuracy and even representativenessof the data would be assumed—if not considered irrelevant. Formost of his analytic problems, the data are mere mathematicalpremises and not economic observations.

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Page 6: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A5

TABLE 1

IDENTIFICATION TABLE OF AMERICAN RAILROAD BONDS

This is a table to be used with Tables 2 and 3. Table 3 containsthe identification numbers of Table 1, and also an abbreviated descrip-tion. In Table 2 identification numbers only are given.

Table 1 consists of the exact name of each bond and informationconcerning security, medium of payment (gold or currency), date ofissue, date of maturity, amount and dates of interest payments, whetherbond is registered or coupon, and convertible or callable features.

(All bonds are coupon bonds unless designated registered)

1. Hudson River Railroad 1st mortgage 7s currency.Dated Feb 1, 1849; due Feb 1, 1869.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1. Registered.

2. Chicago and Rock Island Railroad 1st mortgage 7s currencyDated July 10, 1850; due July 10, 1870.Interest paid Jan 10 & July 10.Convertible into common stock of Chicago and Rock IslandRailroad at par on any interest date on or before the 10th ofJuly, 1858.

3. Lehigh Coal and Navigation Company general mortgage anddeed of trust 6s currency.

Dated Mar 7, 1842; due Mar 1, 1870.Interest paid quarterly Jan 1, Apr 1, July 1 & Oct 1.

4. Philadelphia and Reading Railroad 2nd mortgage .6s currencyDated Apr 1, 1849; due Apr 1, 1870.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

5. New York and Harlem Railroad 1st mortgage 7s currency.Dated May 1, 1853; due May 1, 1873.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

6. Lehigh Valley Railroad 1st mortgage 6s currency.Dated May 1, 1853; due May 1, 1873.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

7. Morris Canal and Banking Company 1st mortgage 6s currency.Dated Oct 1, 1856; due April 1, 1876.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

8. Eastern Railroad (Massachusetts) 6s currency.Dated Aug 1, 1854; due Aug 1, 1874.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

9. Pennsylvania Railroad 2nd m9rtgage dollar bonds 6s currency.Dated June 1, 1854; due Mar 31, 1875.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

10. Pennsylvania Railroad 1st mortgage dollar bonds 6s currency.Dated Oct 14, 1852; due Dec 31, 1880..Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

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A6 APPENDIX

11. Camden and Amboy Railroad 6s currency.Dated Jan 1, 1854; due Jan 1, 1889.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

12. Camden and Amboy Railroad 6s currency.Dated July 1, 1833; due Feb 1, 1883.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

13. New York Central Railroad debt certificates or "premiumbonds" 6s currency.

Dated Aug 1, 1853; due May 1, 1883.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

Note :—The term "premium bonds" does not refer to the prin-cipal of the bond. These bonds promised to pay $1,000 on May1, 1883.

14. New York Central Railroad "bonds for debts assumed" 7s cur-rency.

Dated Aug 1, 1856; due Aug 1, 1876.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

15. Chicago, Burlington and Quincy Railroad 1st mortgage 8s curren-cy.

Dated Jan 1, 1858; due Jan 1, 1883.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

16. Hudson River Railroad 2nd mortgage 7s currency.Dated Dec 16, 1850; extended Dec 16, 1860; due June 16, 1885.Interest paid June 16 & Dec 16.

17. Chicago and Northwestern Railway "preferred sinking fund" (1stmortgage, Chicago to Oshkosh) 7s currency.

Dated July 1, 1859; due Aug 1, 1885.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

18. Philadelphia and Erie Railroad 1st mortgage 6s currency.Dated Mar 31, 1861; due Mar 31, 1881.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

19. Galena and Chicago Union Railroad 1st mortgage 7s currency.Dated Feb 1, 1852; extended Feb 1, 1862; due Feb 1, 1882.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1

Callable at 105 on Feb 1, 1877.20. Michigan Southern and Northern Indiana Railroad 1st mortgage

7s currency.Dated May 1, 1855; due May 1, 1885.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

21. Cleveland and Toledo Railroad 1st mortgage 7s currency.Dated July 1, 1855; due July 1, 1885.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

22. Connecticut and Passumpsic Rivers Railroad 1st mortgage 6s cur-rency.

Dated Dec 1, 1856; due Dec 1, 1876.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

23. Buffalo, New York and Erie Railroad 1st mortgage 7s currency.Dated Oct 29, 1857; due Dec 1, 1877.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

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RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A7

24. Chicago and Alton Railroad 1st mortgage 7s currency.Dated Dec 1, 1862; due Jan 1, 1893.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

25. Pittsburgh, Fort Wayne and Chicago Railway 1st mortgage 7sSeries A currency.

Dated Mar 1, 1862; due July 1, 1912.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

26. Camden and Arriboy Railroad mortgage 6s currency.Dated Nov 1, 1862; due Nov 1, 1889.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

27. Toledo and Wabash Railroad 1st mortgage 7s currency.Dated Aug 1, 1853; extended Aug 1, 1865; due Aug 1, 1890.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

28. St. Louis, Alton and Terre Haute Railroad 1st mortgage 7s SeriesA currency.

Dated June 30, 1862; due July 1, 1894.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

29. New York Central Railroad renewal bonds 6s currency.Dated June 15, 1854—7s; extended June 15, 1864—6s; due

Dec 15, 1887.Interest paid June 15 & Dec 15.

30. Morris and Essex Railroad 1st mortgage 7s currency.Dated July 1, 1864; due May 1, 1914.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

31. New York and Erie Railroad 1st mortgage 7s currency.Dated July 1, 1847; extended May 1, 1867; due May 1, 1897.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

32. Milwaukee and St. Paul Railway (Prairie du Chien Division)1st mortgage 8s currency.

Dated Feb 1, 1868; due Feb 1, 1898.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

33. Lehigh Valley Railroad 1st mortgage 6s currency.Dated June 1, 1868; due June 1, 1898.Interest paid June I & Dec 1.

34. Central Railroad of New Jersey "new bonds" later 1st mortgage7s currency.

Dated 1869; due Feb 1, 1890.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

35. Lehigh Coal and Navigation Company "railroad loan" 6s cur-rency.

Dated 1867; due Feb 1, 1897.Interest paid quarterly Feb 1, May 1, Aug 1 & Nov 1.

36. Chicago and Milwaukee Railroad 1st mortgage 7s currency.Dated 1863; due July 1, 1898.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

37. Lake Shore Railway "dividend bonds" 7s currency.Dated Apr.1, 1869; due Apr 1, 1899.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

38. Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Indianapolis Railway

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A8 APPENDIX

1st mortgage 7s currency.Dated 1869; due May 1, 1899Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

39. Lehigh Valley Railroad 2nd mortgage 7s currency.Dated July 1, 1870; due Sept 1, 1910.Interest paid Mar 1 & Sept 1. Registered.

40. Chicago and Northwestern Railway consolidated 7s currency.Dated Jan 16, 1865; due Feb 1, 1915.Interest paid quarterly, Feb 1, May 1, Aug 1 & Nov 1.

41. Lake Shore and Michigan Southern Railway consolidated 1stmortgage 7s currency.

Dated July 1, 1870; due July 1, 1900.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

42. Pennsylvania Railroad general mortgage 6s currency.Dated July 1, 1867; due July 1, 1910.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1

43. New York and Harlem Railroad consolidated (later 1st) mortgage7s currency.

Dated May 1, 1872; due May 1, 1900.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

44. New York Central and Hudson River Railroad 1st mortgage 7scurrency.

Dated Jan 15, 1873; due Jan 1, 1903.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

45. Chicago, Burlington and Quincy Railroad consolidated mortgage7s currency.

Dated July 1, 1873; due July 1, 1903.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

46. Cleveland and Pittsburgh Railroad consolidated mortgage 7s cur-rency.

Dated 1867; due Nov 1, 1900.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

47. Michigan Central Railroad consolidated mortgage 7s currency.Dated May 1, 1872; due May 1, 1902.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

48. Central Pacific Railroad 1st mortgage 6s Series A gold.Dated July 1, 1865.; due July 1, 1895.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

49. Chicago, Rock Island and Pacific Railroad 1st mortgage 6s cur-rency.

Dated May 1, 1877; due July 1, 1917.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

50. Chicago and Northwestern Railway consolidated mortgage 7s gold.Dated Nov 1, 1872; due Dec 1, 1902.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

51. Chicago, St Paul and Minneapolis Railway 1st mortgage 6s gold.Dated May 9, 1878; due May 1, 1918.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

52. St. Paul, Minneapolis & Manitoba 2nd mortgage 6s gold.

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RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A9

Dated Oct 1, 1879; due Oct 1, 1909.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

53. Nashville, Chattanooga and St. Louis Railway 1st mortgage 7scurrency.

Dated July 1, 1873; due July 1, 1913.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

54. St Paul and Sioux City Railroad 1st mortgage 6s gold.Dated July 1, 1879; due Apr 1, 1919.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

55. Chicago, Milwaukee and St Paul Railway (Southern MinnesotaDivision) 1st mortgage 6s currency.

Dated Jan 1, 1880; due Jan 1, 1910.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

56. Canada Southern Railway 1st mortgage 5s Canadian currency.Dated Oct 31, 1877; due Jan 1, 1908.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

57. Chicago, St Paul, Minneapolis and Omaha Railway consolidated6s currency.

Dated June 1, 1880; due June 1, 1930.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

58. St. Paul, Minneapolis and Manitoba Railway (Dakota Extension)1st mortgage 6s gold.

Dated Nov 1, 1880; due Nov 1, 1910.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

59. Philadelphia and Erie Railroad general mortgage 5s gold.Dated July 1, 1869; due July 1, 1920Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1. Registered.

60. Chicago, Milwaukee and St Paul Railway (Chicago and PacificWestern Division) 1st mortgage 5s gold.

Dated Jan 1, 1881; due Jan 1, 1921.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

61. Chicago, Mil*aukee & St Paul Railway (Wisconsin and MinnesotaDivision) 1st mortgage 5s gold

Dated July 1, 1881; due July 1, 1921.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

62. Chicago, St Louis and New Orleans Railroad consolidated mort-gage 5s gold.

Dated Mar 15, 1881; due June 15, 1951.Interest paid June 15 & Dec 15.

63. Pennsylvania Company 1st mortgage gold.- Dated Apr 1, 1881; due July 1, 1921.

Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.64. New York, Lackawanna and Western Railway 1st mortgage 6s

gold.Dated Dec 1, 1880; due Jan 1, 1921.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

65. Hannibal and St Joseph Railroad consolidated mortgage 6s cur-rency.

Dated Apr 30, 1881; due Mar 1, 1911.Interest paid Mar 1 & Sept 1.

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AlO APPENDIX

66. New York Central and Hudson River Railroad debenture 5s cur-rency.

Dated Sept 1, 1884; due Sept 1, 1904.Interest paid Mar 1 & Sept 1.

67. Baltimore and Ohio Railroad 5s gold.Dated Jan 31, 1885; due Feb 1, 1925.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

68. Chicago, Milwaukee and St Paul Railway, terminal mortgage 5sgold.

Dated July 1, 1884; due July 1, 1914.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

69. Chicago and Northwestern Railway debenture 5s currency.Dated July 1, 1884; due Nov 1, 1909.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

70. West Shore Railroad 1st mortgage 4s currency.Dated Dec 5, 1885; due Jan 1, 2361.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

71. Chicago and Northwestern Railway debenture 5s currency.Dated May 1, 1883; due May 1, 1933.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

72. Chicago and Northwestern Railway extension 4s currency.Dated Apr 15, 1886; due Aug 15, 1926.Interest paid Feb 15 & Aug 15.

73. St Paul, Minneapolis and Manitoba Railway consolidated mort-gage 43/2s (originally 6s) gold.

Dated May 1, 1883; due July 1, 1933.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

74. Cincinnati, Indianapolis, St Louis and Chicago Railway general1st mortgage 4s gold.

Dated Aug 2, 1886; due Aug 1, 1936.Interest paid quarterly Feb 1, May 1, Aug 1 & Nov 1.

75. Pacific Railroad (of Missouri) 1st mortgage extended 4s gold.Dated Aug 1, 1868; due Aug 1, 1888 (6% coupon); extended

Feb 1, 1887; due Aug 1, 1938 (4% coupon).Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

76. Illinois Central Railroad collateral trust 4s gold.Dated Mar 31, 1888; due Apr 1, 1952.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

77. Lake Erie and Western Railroad 1st mortgage 5s gold.Dated Feb 21, 1887; due Jan 1, 1937.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

78. Wabash Railroad 1st mortgage 5s gold.Dated May 1, 1889; due May 1, 1939.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

79. Chesapeake and Ohio Railway (Eastern Extension) 1st mortgage6s gold.

Dated Jan 1, 1881; due Jan, 1911.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

80. Rome, Watertown and Ogdensburg Railroad consolidated mort-gage 5s gold.

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RAILROAD BOND YIELDS AllDated July 1, 1874; extended July 1, 1882 (gold); due July 1,

1922..Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1 and a coupon on July 1, 1922.

81. New York, Chicago and St Louis Railroad 1st mortgage 4s gold.Dated Oct 1,1887; due Oct 1, 1937.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

82. Chesapeake and Ohio Railway 1st consolidated mortgage Ss gold.Dated Jan 1, 1889; due May 1939.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

83. Illinois Central Railroad collateral trust (Louisville, New Orleansand Texas Railway collateral) 4s gold.

Dated Sept 1, 1892; due Nov 1, 1953.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

84. Chesapeake and Ohio Railway (Richmond and Alleghany RailwayDivision) 1st consolidated mortgage 4s gold.

Dated Jan 20, 1890; due Jan 1, 1989.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

85. Cleveland, Cincinnati, Chicago and St Louis Railway (St LouisDivision) 1st collateral trust mortgage 4s gold.

Dated Nov 1, 1890; due Nov 1, 1990.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

86. East Tennessee, Virginia and Georgia consolidated 1stmortgage 5s gold.

Dated July 5, 1886; due Nov 1, 1956.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

87. Chicago, Milwaukee and St Paul Railway general mortgage 4sSeries A gold.

Dated May 1, 1889; due May 1, 1989.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

88. Lake Shore and Michigan Southern Railway 1st mortgagegold.

Dated June 1, 1897; due June 1, 1997.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

89. St Paul, Minneapolis and Manitoba Railway (Montana Extension)1st mortgage 4s gold.

Dated June 1, 1887; due June 1, 1937.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

90. Baltimore and Ohio Railroad 1st mortgage 4s gold.Dated July 1, 1898; due July 1, 1948.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

Callable at 105 after June 30th 1923 upon three months' notice.91. Union Pacific Railroad 1st mortgage railroad and land grant 4s

gold.Dated July 1, 1897; due July 1, 1947.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

92. Chicago and Northwestern Railway general mortgage gold.Dated Nov 1, 1897; due Nov 1, 1987.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

93. Chicago, Rock Island and Pacific Railway general mortgage 4sgold.

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A12 APPENDIX

Dated Jan 1, 1898; due Jan 1, 1988.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

94. Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railway general mortgage 4s gold.Dated Dec 12, 1895; due Oct 1, 1995.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

95. New York Central and Hudson River Railroad refunding mortgagegold.

Dated June 1, 1897; due July 1, 1997.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

96. Scioto Valley and New England Railroad 1st mortgage 4s gold.Dated Nov 1, 1889; due Nov 1, 1989.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

97. Lehigh Valley Railway (of New York) 1st mortgage 43/2s gold.Dated June 23, 1890; due July 1, 1940.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

98. Louisville and Nashville Railroad unified mortgage 4s gold.Dated June 2, 1890; due July 1,1940.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

99. Oregon Railroad and Navigation Company consolidated mortgage4s gold.

Dated Aug 17, 1896; due June 1, 1946.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

100. Chicago, Burlington and Quincy Railroad (Illinois Division) 1stmortgage 33/2s currency.

Dated July 1, 1899; due July 1, 1949.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

Callable as a whole at 105 and interest on any interest dateafter July 1, 1929 on six months' notice.

.101. Central Pacific Railway 1st refunding mortgage 4s gold.Dated Aug 1, 1899; due Aug 1, 1949.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

102. Northern Pacific Railway prior lien railroad and land grantmortgage 4s gold.

Dated Nov 10, 1896; due Jan 1, 1997.Interest paid quarterly Jan 1, Apr 1, July 1 & Oct 1.

103. Norfolk and Western Railway 1st consolidated mortgage 4s gold.Dated Oct 22, 1896; due Oct 1, 1996.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

104. Central Railroad Company of New Jersey general mortgage 5s gold.Dated July 1, 1887; due July 1, 1987.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

105. Hocking Valley Railway 1st consolidated mortgage 43/2s gold.Dated July 1, 1899; due July 1, 1999.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

106. Norfolk and Western Railway divisional first lien and generalmortgage 4s gold.

Dated July 1, 1904; due July 1, 1944.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

Callable at 105 and interest on any interest date after January1, 1929 upon three months' notice.

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RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A13

(Atlanta,gold.1955.

due Mar 1, 1958.& Sept 1.consolidated mortgage 5s gold.

107. Oregon Short Line Railroad consolidated 1st mortgage 5s gold.Dated Mar 1, 1897; due July 1, 1946.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

108. Southern Pacific Railroad (California) first refunding mortgage 4sgold.Dated Jan 3, 1905; due Jan 1, 1955.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

Callable at 105 and interest on Jan 1, 1910 or on any interestdate thereafter at not less than three months' notice.

109. Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railway adjustment mortgage 4sgold, stamped.

Dated Dec 12, 1895; due July 1, 1995.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

110. Northern Pacific Railway general lien 3s gold..Dated Nov 10, 1896; due Jan 1, 2047.Interest paid quarterly Feb 1, May 1, Aug 1 & Nov 1.

111. Atlantic Coast Line Railroad 1st consolidated mortgage 4s gold.Dated July 1, 1902; due July 1, 1952.Interest paid Mar 1 & Sept 1.

112. Delaware and Hudson Company first and refunding mortgage 4sgold.

Dated May 1, 1908; due May 1, 1943.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

Callable as a whole at 1073/b and interest on May 1, 1918 oron any interest date thereafter upon thirteen weeks' notice.

113. Central of Georgia Railway consolidated mortgage 5s gold.Dated Nov 1, 1895; due Nov 1, 1945.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

114. Pennsylvania Railroad consolidated mortgage 4s gold.Dated May 1, 1908; due May 1, 1948.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

115. Kansas City Southern Railway 1st mortgage 3s gold.Dated Apr 2, 1900; due Apr 1, 1950Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

116. Louisville and Nashville Railroad Knoxville and Cin-cinnati Division) mortgage 4s

Dated Apr 1, 1905; due May 1,Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

117. Illinois Central RailrOad refunding mortgage 4s gold..Dated Nov 1, 1908; due Nov 1, 1955.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1. -

Callable as a whole at 1073/2 and interest on Nov 1, 1918 or onany . interest date thereafter upon not less than thirteen weeks'notice.

118. Chicago, Burlington and Quincy Railroad general mortgage 4scurrency.Dated Mar 2, 1908;Interest paid Mar 1

119. Southern Railway 1st

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A14 APPENDIX

Dated Oct 2,.1894; due July 1, 1994.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

120. Union Pacific Railroad 1st lien and refunding mortgage 4s gold.Dated June 1, 1908; due June 1, 2008.Interest paid Mar 1 & Sept 1.

Callable as a whole at and interest on Sept 1, 1918 or onany interest date thereafter upon three months' notice.

121. Atlantic Coast Line Railroad collateral trust (Louisville and Nash-ville Railroad collateral) 4s gold.

Dated Nov 1, 1902; due Oct 1, 1952.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

Callable on any interest date in amounts of not less than$100,000 at 105 and interest.

122. Norfolk and Western Railway Pocahontas Coal and Coke jointmortgage 4s gold.

Dated Dec 2, 1901; due Dec 1, 1941.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

Callable at 105 and interest after Apr 1, 1906 from chargesagainst coal mined.

123. Great Northern Railway 1st and refunding mortgage SeriesA gold.

Dated May 1, 1911; due July 1, 1961.Interest paid Jan. 1 & July 1.

Callable as a whole at 105 and interest on or after Jan 1, 1941upon ninety days' notice.

124. Canada Southern Railway 1st and refunding consolidated mort-gage 5s Series A gold.

Dated Oct 1, 1912; due Oct 1, 1962.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

125. Morris and Essex Railroad 1st refunding mortgage gold.Dated Dec 1, 1900; due Dec 1, 2000.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

126. Pennsylvania Railroad consolidated mortgage gold.Dated Feb 1, 1915; due Aug 1, 1960.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

127. Canadian Northern Railway sinking fund debenture 63/2s gold.Dated July 1, 1921; due July 1, 1946.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

128. Great Northern Railway general mortgage Series B gold.Dated Jan 1, 1922; due Jan 1, 1952.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

129. Atlantic Coast Line Railroad general unified Series A gold.Dated June 1, 1914; due June 1, 1964.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

130. Pennsylvania Railroad general mortgage Series A gold.Dated June 1, 1915; due June 1, 1965.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

131. Pennsylvania Railroad general mortgage 5s Series B gold.Dated Dec 1, 1918; due Dec 1, 1968.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

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RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A15

132. Great Northern Railway general mortgage 5s Series C gold.Dated Jan 1, 1923; due Jan 1, 1973.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

133. St Louis Southwestern Railway 1st mortgage bond certificates(issued by the Central Trust Company) 4s gold.

Dated Nov 1, 1890; due Nov 1, 1989.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

134. Missouri, Kansas & Texas Railway 1st mortgage 4s gold.Dated June 1, 1890; due June 1, 1990.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

135. Chesapeake and Ohio Railway general mortgage 43/2s gold.Dated Feb 23, 1892; due Mar 1, 1992.Interest paid Mar 1 & Sept 1.

136. Cleveland, Cincinnati, Chicago and St Louis Railway general mort-gage 4s Series A gold.

Dated May 15, 1893; due June 1, 1993.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

137. New York Central Railroad consolidation mortgage 4s Series Agold.

Dated Aug 1, 1913; due Feb 1, 1998.Interest paid Feb 1 & Aug 1.

138. Texas and Pacific Railway 1st mortgage 5s gold.Dated Feb 1, 1888; due June 1, 2000.Interest paid June 1 & Dec 1.

139. Lehigh Valley Railroad (Pennsylvania) general consolidated mort-gage 4s gold.

Dated Sept 30, 1903; due May 1, 2003.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

140. Canadian Pacific Railway 4% irredeemable debenture stock (a bondwithout maturity).Issue authorized by an act of Parliament of the Dominion of

Canada, passed in 1889, and subsequent acts. Issue of stock maybe made from time to time.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1

141. Southern Railway development and general mortgage 4s Series Agold.

Dated Apr 18, 1906; due Apr 1, 1956.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

142. Chicago and Western Indiana Railroad Company consolidatedmortgage 4s gold.

Dated July 1, 1902; due July 1, 1952.Interest .paid Jan 1 & July 1.

143. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Chicago & St Louis Railroad general mort-gage 5s Series B gold.

Dated Apr 1, 1925; due Apr 15, 1975.Interest paid Apr 1 &Oct 1.

144. Great Northern Railway general mortgage 43/2s Series D gold.Dated July 1, 1926; due July 1, 1976.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

Page 17: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A16 APPENDIX

145. Chicago, Milwaukee and St Paul Railway general (now 1st) mort-gage 4s Series A gold.

Dated May 1, 1889; due May 1, 1989.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.Remain undisturbed under plan of reorganization.

146. Erie Railroad Company 1st consolidated prior lien 4s gold.Dated Dec 10, 1895; due Jan 1, 1996.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

147. Pennsylvania Railroad general mortgage Series D gold.Dated Apr 1, 1931; due Apr 1, 1981.Interest paid Apr 1 & Oct 1.

148. Chicago and Erie Railroad 1st 5s gold.Dated Aug 21, 1890; due May 1, 1982.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

149. Chesapeake and Ohio Railway (Richmond and Alleghany Division)1st 4s gold

Dated Jan 20, 1890; due Jan 1, 1989.Interest paid Jan 1 & July 1.

150. Cleveland, Cincinnati, Chicago and St Louis Railway (St LouisDivision) 1st collateral 4s gold

Dated Nov 1, 1890; due Nov 1, 1990.Interest paid May 1 & Nov 1.

Page 18: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 19: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 20: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS:

A19

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Page 21: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A20 APPENDIX

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Page 22: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A21

TABLE 2

PAPER PRICES OF AMERICAN RAILROAD BONDS, MONTHLY,JANUARY 1857—JANuARY 1879

This table is intended to aid students who wish 'original data onrailroad bond prices in the paper ('greenback') money period. Gaps inthis table occur in months when no sales were made. For identificationof the bonds refer by numbers to Table 1.

With the exception of Bond Number 8, all prices in this table are'flat'. 'Flat' prices are given, because that is the form in which theywere quoted during the period covered by the table. Since January 1,1909, it has been the almost universal practice in the United States toquote bonds at 'and interest' prices. In the period from January 1857to December 1862, inclusive, the quotations for Bond Number 8 are 'andinterest' prices for one day in the month. From January 1862 to Jan-uary 1866 the quotations for Bond Number.8 are 'flat'.

The 'flat' price of a bond is the actual amount of money whichchanges hands when the bond is sold. The 'and interest' price equalsthe 'flat' price less the allowance for the accrued portion of the currentcoupon. Except on interest dates, the 'flat' price is, of course, greaterthan the 'and interest' price. For a simple discussion of 'flat' and'and interest' prices, see Justin H. Moore; Handbook of FinancialMathematics, pages 434 and 435.

Page 23: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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N. 1

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Page 27: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 28: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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101

101

100

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4100

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399

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023

9234

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103

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102

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106

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106

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10334 9934 99%

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96%

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97983/2 953.4 97

96

97

97

97

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97

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9034

94

92% 93% 92

9334

27

92

92

90

91

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95

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96

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94

30

96

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100

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21

.11

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%

-'1

Page 29: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

PRIC

ES O

F R

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95

95

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97

97

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94

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98

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88

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98

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9495

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PRICES OF RAILROAD BONDS

.JA

N.1870—JAN. 1871

JAN.

FEB.

No.

Low

Hig

h Lo

w H

igh

MAR.

Low

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MAY

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h

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OV

.

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DEC.

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JAN.

Low

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h

00 II

11 12 13

15 16 1718

19

20 21 24 25 26

27 28

29 30

313233

82 8534

86107

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92 1039334

83

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100

95

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863/

291

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101

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1003

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105 93

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3490

3.4

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8734

8734

92112

1053

496 92 99

102

103

103

1063/2

9595 953/

290

3/2

103

101

10598

88

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113

104 95 88 98

101

101

101

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95

93

943/2

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29934

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113

106

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101

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9334

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103

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1053

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90 8834

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98 101

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104

933-i

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100

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92

93

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103

106

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105

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95

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90

94

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93

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111

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100

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Page 30: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

Jfll?

4. L

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109

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.

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91

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106

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91

91

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PRIC

ES O

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ND

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igh

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MA

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101

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24 10334105

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C C I' 02 CD

Page 31: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

PRIC

ES O

F R

AIL

RO

AD

BO

ND

SJA

N. 1

873—

JAN

. 187

4

No.

JAN

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B.

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AR

.

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Page 32: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

II 0 0 II 02

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Page 33: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

No.

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Page 34: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A33

TABLE 3

YIELDS OF AMERICAN RAILROAD BONDS, MONTHLY,JANUARY 1857—JANUARY 1936

This table gives for each month the yield of each bond if held tomaturity. The yields are based on the assumption that each bond isbought at the middle of the month and costs the arithmetic average of thehighest and lowest prices of the month. The italicised yields are notbased on actual price quotations but are interpolated. For a more com-plete description of the bonds used in this table see Table 1.

This is a 'currency' or 'dollar' yield table. In other words all cal-culations have been based on the assumption that the buyers and sellerswere interested only in legal tender without reference to its gold, 'com-modity', or other exchange value. For example, if on Jan. 15th, 1863, anindividual bought for $1000 in greenbacks a one thousand dollar 6%bond maturing in exactly ten years and received as interest $30 ingreenbacks every 6 months until maturity and $1030 in greenbacks atmaturity, he would consider that he had received 6% on his investmentthroughout the ten years without any reference to how many ounces ofgold he could have bought with the original 1000 greenback dollars or withany or all of the greenback interest payments or the 1030 greenbackdollars received January 15, 1873.

The yields in this table therefore correspond to those which wouldbe obtained by entering an ordinary bond yield table with the dollar (or'greenback') purchase price. This was, of course, the form in which theprices were actually quoted throughout the period.

Page 35: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 36: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 37: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A36

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Page 38: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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5.13

5.13

5.32

5.32

5.36

ii Camden &Amboy 6sJan 1889

c.62

5.63

5.70

5.87

5.81

5.69

5.75

5.67

5.72

5.76

5.78

5.85

5.98

12 Camden &Amboy6s 1883

5.79

5.60

5.61

5.83

5.70

5.74

5.81

5.60

5.80

5.76

5.89

5.96

5.96

13 NYCRRdebtcertificateg6glS83

5,00

4.71

5,14

5.25

5.22

5.40

5.62

5.58

5.64

5.43

5.47

5.60

5.67

14 NVCRRfordebtsassumed7sl87ô

4.93

4.71

4.91

5.17

5.04

.5.5

55.56

5.31

5.46

5.40

5.27

5.56

5.41

15 Chic Burl&Quincy lstM8s 1883

6.01

5.55

5.70

6.01

6.45

6.35

6.29

6.25

6.13

6.14

6.31

6.22

6.37

Z16

Hudson River RR 2dM7s 1885

5.41

5.34

3.51

5.69

5.88

5.65

5.45

5.56

5.60

5.64

5.61

5.66

5.80

17 Chic&NorWestRylstMsf7s 1885

6.51

6.47

6.21

6.55

6.66

6.67

6.78

6.92

6.82

6.68

6.92

6.88

6.94

18 Philadelphia&ErielstMóslS8l

5.52

5.35

5.33

5.62

5.50

5.59

5.75

5.76

5.79

5,62

5,67

5.86

5.89

19 Gal&ChiURR lstM7s 1882

5.56

5.65

5.74

5.72

5.93

6.04

6.19

6.02

5.88

5.82

5.95

6.05

6.20

20 MichSo&NorlnclianalstM7sl885

6.31

6.11

6.20

6.20

6.12

6.25

6.49

6.37

6.22

6.14

6.24

6.33

6.44

21C

leve

land

&To

!edo

lstM

ls 1

885

6.20

6.12

6.23

6.36

6.18

632

6.47

6.17

6.06

6.07

6.17

6.34

6.37

22

1876

5.42

5.48

5.47

5.76

5.85

5.82

5.81

5.81

5,85

5.88

5.86

5.92

5.97

23 Buffalo NY&Erie lstM7s 1877

6.62

6.26

6.10

6.32

6.09

6.22

6.12

6.40

6.31

5.90

6.37

6.63

6.67

24 Chicago &Alton lstMls 1893

6.63

6.34

6.29

6.51

6.56

6.62

6.71

6.83

6.88

6.85

6.89

6.95

7.27

C12

25 PittsFtWayne&ChiclstM 7s1912

6.15

5.94

6.00

6.58

6.43

6.65

6.69

6.58

6.62

•6.45

6.53

6.69

6.64

-4

Page 39: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

1864

—JA

N. 1

865

Ref

.N

o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pril

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec

.Ja

n.5

New

york

&H

arle

mR

Rls

tM7s

l873

6.01

6.06

5.79

5.26

5.43

5.59

4.66

4.85

5.53

6.27

5.75

6.27

6.60

6 Le

high

Val

ley

RR

lstM

6s 1

873

5.54

5.57

5.28

4.85

4.67

4.72

4.56

4.95

5.56

5.44

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7 M

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Can

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187

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675.

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345.

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124.

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8 Ea

ster

n R

R (M

ass)

6s 1

874

5.61

5.78

5.54

5.53

5.37

5.32

5.26

5.12

5.11

5.32

5.65

5.68

5.50

9 Pe

nnsy

lvan

iaR

R2n

dM6s

l875

5.49

5.31

5.00

4.62

4.70

4.56

3.86

4.00

4.76

5.16

5.11

5.25

5.56

10 P

enns

ylva

niaR

Rls

tM6s

l88o

3.36

5.16

5.01

4.89

4.80

4.63

4.04

4.05

4.15

5.04

5.01

5.16

5.43

11 C

amde

n&A

mbo

y 6s

Jan

1889

5.98

6.05

5.92

5.56

5.60

5.53

5.48

5.45

5.67

6.08

6.00

6.01

6.09

12 C

amde

n&A

mbo

yósl

8S3

5.96

5.97

5.91

5.55

5.54

5.72

5.53

5.39

5.69

6.07

6.02

6.17

6.19

13 N

Y C

RR

debt

certi

ficat

es6s

188

35.

675.

585.

47.

5.33

3.17

5.01

4.58

4.55

4.90

5.17

5.25

5.46

5.80

14 N

YC

RR

ford

ebts

a.ss

umed

7sl8

l65.

415.

525.

405.

215.

224.

874.13

3.76

3.92

4.91

5.37

5.24

5.46

15 C

hic

Bur

l&Q

uinc

y ls

tM8s

188

36.

376.

286.

005,

855.

855.

555.

435.

256.

126.

346.

106.

326.

8216

Hud

son

Riv

erR

R2d

M7s

188

35.

805.

745.

775.

565.

415.

294.

754.

705.

425.

625.

805.

866.

4717

Chi

c&N

orW

estR

ylst

Msf

7sl8

856.

946.

876.72

6.34

6.32

6.26

5.61

6.11

6.23

6.68

6.54

6.70

6.88

18 P

hila

delp

hia&

Erie

lstM

6slS

Sl5.

895.

755.

575.

255.

405.

315.

045.

295.

225.

915.

565.

916.

0319

Gal

&C

hiU

RR

lst.M

7s18

826.

205.

955.

725.

605.73

5.29

5.78

4.77

5.29

5.70

5.62

5.84

6.45

20

Mic

hSo&

Nor

Indi

ana

lstM

7s 1

885

6.44

6.26

6.16

6.10

6.07

5.81

5.58

5.80

6.07

6.62

6.35

6.53

7.14

21 C

lève

land

&To

ledo

lstM

7s1

885

6.37

6.26

5.97

5.72

5.84

5.76

5.83

5.81

5.95

6.54

6.60

6.60

6.58

22 C

onn&

Pass

Riv

ersR

R ls

tM 6

s 187

65.

973.

965.

845.

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835.

835.

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945.

975.

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006.

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4823

Buf

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NY

&Er

iels

tM7s

l877

6.67

6.72

6.24

6.20

6.13

5.93

5.34

5.63

6.03

6.50

6.40

6.60

6.42

24 C

hica

go&

Alto

nlst

M7s

1893

7.27

6.93

6.50

6.44

6.42

•6.2

85.

885.

956.

546.

926.

736.

746.

7825

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426.

216.

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Cam

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5.65

5.67

5.56

5.23

5.24

5.20

5.01

4.92

5.42

5.70

5.50

5.57

5.64

00

Page 40: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

Ref

.N

o.N

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East

ern

RR

(Mas

s) 6

s 187

4Pe

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89C

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Jan.

Feb.

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2122

2324 23 26

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C R

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3N

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876

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'1st

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s 188

3H

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885

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876

Buf

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1st M

7s 1

893

Pitts

Ft W

ayne

& C

hic

1st M

7s 1

912

Cam

den

& A

mbo

y M

Gs N

ov 1

889

5.50

5.56

5.43

6.09

6.19

5.80 5.46

6.82

6.47

6.88 6.03

6.45 7.14

6.58 6.48

6.42

6.78

6.45

5.64

Mar

.6.

076.45

5.74

6.09

6.73

6.18

7.10

7.09

6.58

7.18

6.54

7.63

6.97

7.38

6.49

7.37

7.16

7.80

6.18

5.86

5.84

5.43

6.14

6.50

5.94

6.05

6.74

6.48

7.05

6.33

6.99

6.84

6.72

6.48 7.12

6.73

6.44

5.76

Apr

il

6.03

6.35

6.00 5.94

7.17

6.33

7.02

6.94

6.90

7.38

6.65

7.45

7.16

7.29

6.49

7.80

7.26

7.00

6.23

May 6.04

6.35

5.94

5.48

7.21

6.46 6.65

7.08

6.81

7.60

6.82

7.27

7.17

7.45

6.12

8.05

7.35

7.03

6.04

June 6.04

6.42

5.90

7.21

7.39

6.89 6.81

7.24

7.17

8.01

6.97

7.28

7.47

7.41

6.97

8.20

7.55

7.17

6.12

July 6.00

6.26 5.75

7.23

7.29

6.71

6.63

7.01

6.78

7 .6

1

6.96

7.02

7.43

7 .3

27.

338.

027.24

6.90

6.23

Aug

.

6.45

6.11

5.63

7.18

7.18

6.71

6.71

7.14

6.93

7.59

6.86

6.99

7.55

7.48

7.12

8.10

7.47

6.87

6.23

Sept

.6.

826.

185.

717.

127.

196.

826.

857.

036.

927.

646.

877.

037.

577.

587.

307.

917.

526.

826.

21

Oct

. 7.03

6.58

6.03 7.09

7.14

6.90

7 .0

57.

056.

96 7.78

7.01

7.16

7.56

7.48

7.31

7.96

7.44

6.90

6.21

Nov

.

7.22

6.92

6.31 7.12

7.19

6.90 7.06

7.07

7.12

7.95

7.35

7.09

7.56

7.41

7.32

7.94

7.63

7.01

6.56

6.82 7.00

6.22 7.47

7.44

6.98

7.14

7.01

6.66

8.03 1.54

7.28

8.07

7 .4

67.

327.

927.

597.

056.

70

6.84

7.44

6.51

7.59

7.90

6.88

7.01

7.10

6.96

8.21

7.55

7.13

7.64

7.58

7.48

7.90 7.64

7.00

6.90

II 0 C 12

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

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D B

ON

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JAN

. 186

6—JA

N. 1

867

Ref.

No.

Nam

e of

Bon

dJa

n.Fe

b.M

ar.

7.03

6.16

7.65

7.92

7.20

May 6.72

6.08

7.18

7.49

6.78

June 6.91

6.23

6.89

7.27

6.81

July 6.96

6.11

7.14

7.36

6.57

Aug

.6.

706.14

7.12

7.22

6.78

Sept

.6.

625.98

6.94

6.99

6.68

Oct

.

6.59

6.00

6.92

6.95

6.71

Nov

.6.

545.99

6.87

6.90

6.61

Dec

.

6.57

6.01

6.95

7.06

6.63

Jan. 6.73

6.07

6.93

7.12

6.78

910

111213

PennsylvaniaRR2ndMósl875

PennsylvaniaRRlstM6sl88O

Camden&Amboy6sJan 1889

Camden&Amboy6sl883

NYCRRdebLcertificates6s 1883

7.44

6.51

7.59

7.90

6.88

7.56

6.65

7.57

7.91

6.91

7.44

6.58

7.84

7.98

7.05

14 NYCRRfordebtsassumed7sl876

15 Chic Burl&Quincy lstM8s 1883

16 HudsonRiverRR2dM7s 1885

17 Chic&NorWestRylstMsflsl885

18 Philadelphia&Erie

lstM

6s1881

7.01

7.10

6.96

8.21

7.55

7.00

7.10

7.06

8.06

7.34

7.02

7.21

7.11

8.45

7.16

7.01

7.38

7.06

8.33

7.13

7.07

7.05

7.09

8.11

7.02

7.06

7.IP

6.96

7.85

7.18

6.93

7.20

6.84

7.44

7;19

6.89

7.04

6.80

7.34

7.21

6.84

7.05

6.91

7.54

7.10

6.23

7.09

6.80

7.57

7.00

6.37

6.94

6.79

7.51

6.92

6.58

7.05

7.05

7.57

6.99

7.03

6.88

6.77

7.63

7.10

19 Gal&ChilJRRlstM7sl882

20 Mich So & Nor Indiana 1st M 7s 1835

21 Cleveland & Toledo 1st M 7s 1885

23 BuffaloNY&Erie IstMls 1877

24 Chicago&Alton

lstM

7s1893

7.15

7.64

7.58

7.90

7.64

7.33

7.82

7.58

7.99

7.63

7.49

7.83

7.75

8.15

7.62

7.48

7.81.

7.66

8.16

7.63

7.49

7.69

7.45

8.23

7.49

7.74

7.52

7.36

7.60

7.54

7.35

7.56

6.98

7.78

7.24

7.22

7.61

6.75

7.87

7.08

7.07

7.36

6.95

7.82

7.20

7.16

7.33

6.90

7.93

7.15

7.16

7.33

6.95

7.78

7.10

7.29

7.50

7.32

7.72

7.12

7.36

7.59

7.12

7.79

7.15

25 PittsFtWayne&ChklstM7sI9l2

26 Camden&AmboyM6sNovl889

27 Tol&Wabash lstM7s 1890

28 StLAlton&THRR lstM7s 1894

.....

7.00

6.90

8.15

7.77

7.14

6.99

8.27

7.78

7.22

6.81

8.41

8.01

7.25

6.71

8.24

8.08

7.09

6.71

8.18

8.18

7.11

6.62

8.20

8.13

6.91

6.58

8.16

7.92

6.92

6.56

7.82

7.97

6.92

6.42

7.77

7.94

7.10

6.38

7.78

7.90

6.85

6.36

7.89

7.82

7.03

6.49

7.98

7.87

6.95

6.55

7.96

7.82

Page 41: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

JAN

. 186

7—JA

N. 1

868

Ref

.'

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Nam

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Bon

dJa

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10PennsylvaniaRRlstM6sl88o

6.07

6.10

6.17

6.27

6.32

6.38

6.25

6.17

6.17

6.25

6.31

6.23

6.15

11 Camden&Amboy6sJan 1889

6.93

7.11

7.16

7.11

7.23

'7.37

7.38

7.13

7.34

7.53

7.62

7.60

7.27

12 Camden&Amboy6s 1883

7.12

7.27

7.22

'7.24

7.40

7.38

7.26

7.24

7.28

7.59

7.69

7.69

7.37

13 NY C RR debt certificates 6s 1883

6.78

6.83

6.76

6.80

6.69

6.48

6.62

6.65

6.65

6.90

6.87

7.03

6.97

14 NYCRRfordebtsassumed7sl876

7.03

6.63

6.61

6.63

6.72

6.80

6.45

6.55

6.67

6.88

6.85

7.10

7.03

15Chic Burl&Quincy lstM8s 1883

6.88

6.94

7.03

7.11

7.15

7.19

6.76

6.84

6.93

7.04

7.06

7.20

7.03

16 HudsonRiyerRR2dM7sl885

6.77

6.87

6.91

6.99

6.87

6.86

6.76

6.68

6.62

6.79

6.89

6.93

6.86

17 Chic&NorWestRylstMsflsl88S

7.63

7.67

7.65

7.80

7.89

8.00

7.64

7.56

7.50

7.62

7.62

7.68

7.54

18 Philadelphia&Erie lstM6s 1881

7.10

7.24

7.24

7.04

6.94

6.99

6.96

6.83

6.90

7.05

7.26

7.10

7.03

19

Gal

&C

hiU

RR

lstM

7s 1

882

7.36

7.34

7.27

7.16

7.23

7.21

7.08

7.03

6.96

6.94

7.10

7.20

7.19

20

Mic

h So

& N

or In

dian

a 1s

t M 7

s188

57,

597.

477.

337.

387.

387.

347.

257.

287.

247.

337.

377.

497.

3721

Cle

vela

nd &

Tol

edo

1st M

781

885

7.12

7.04

7.00

7.00

7.06

7.02

6.78

6.89

6.90

6.92

7.01

6.98

6.93

23

Buf

falo

NY

&Er

ie ls

tM7s

187

77.

7979

08.

018.16

8.40

8.49

8.42

8.38

8.64

8.59

8.63

8.60

8.37

24

Chi

cago

&A

lton.

lstM

7s 1

893

7.15

7.16

7.15

7.22

7.21

7.19

7.04

6.89

6.94

6.94

6.97

7.04

7.02

25Pitts Ft Wayne & Chic 1st M

7s 1

912

6.95

7.03

7.01

7.03

7.03

7.03

6.83

6.74

6.75

6.79

6.81

6.84

6.88

26Camden&AmboyM6sNov 1889

6.55

6.58

6.57

6.52

6.54

6.63

6.54

6.52

6.53

6.34

6.67

6.69

6.49

27 Tol&Wlabash lstM7s 1890

7.96

8.07

8.16

8.29

8.26

8.27

7.99

8.09

8.07

8.21

8.34

8.29

8.08

28 StLAhon&THRR lstM7s 1894

7.82

7.70

7.88

8.10

8.19

7.96

791

7.94

7.81

7.67

7.73

7.66

7.60

29 NYCentralrenewalbonds6s 1887

6.63

6.66

6.64

6.88

6.68

6.52

6.68

6.89

6.73

6.69

6.84

6.87

6.83

30 Morris & Essex 1st M

1914

7.427 .44

7.50

7.59

7.48

7.48

7.38

7.38

7.32

7.36

7.42

7.41

7.32

YIELDS OF RAILROAD BONDS

JAN.

1868

—JA

N. 1

869

____

____

____

____

____

____

____

____

____

____

__

Ref.

-II

No.

Name of Bond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

April

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec

.Ja

n.10 PennsylvaniaRRlstM6sl88o

6.15

6.08

6.02

6.03

5.95

5.95

6.02

6.08

6.12

6.12

6.14

6.24

6.22

11 Camden&Amboy 6sJan 1889

7.27

7.15

7.30

7.28

7.16

7.18

7.20

7.22

7.31

7.36

7.40

7.48

7.50

12 Camden&Amboy6s 1883

7.37

7.27

7.33

7.37

7.27

7.19

7.19

7.34

7.44

7.31

7.46

7.62

7.66

13 NYCRRdebtcertificates6sl883

6.97

6.87

6.77

6.61

6.64

6.67

6.56

6.58

6.77

6.85

6.68

7.08

7.20

15 Chic Burl&Quincy lstM8s 1883

7.03

6.85

6.70

6.83

6.85

6.92

6.96

6.80

6.94

6.93

7.02

7.07

6.84

16Hudson River RR 2dM7s 1885

6.86

6.83

6.73

6.68

6.75

6.98

6.77

6.62

6.75

6.75

6.69

6.68

6.61

17

Chi

c& Nor West Ry 1st M sf 7s 1885

7.54

7.61

7.62

7.94

7.58

7.35

7.39

7.34

7.41

7.47

7.56

7.70

7.69

18

Phila

delp

hia&

Erie

lstM

Ss 1

881

1.03

6.94

6.91

7.04

7.12

7.16

7.20

7.27

7.30

7.29

7.87

7.99

8.04

19 G

al&

Chi

UR

Rls

tM7s

l882

7.19

7.15

7.08

7.11

7.05

7.20

7.32

6.92

7.0]

7.06

7.18

7.32

7.31

20

Mic

hSo&

Nor

lndi

anal

stM

7s1

885

7.37

7.23

7.11

7.17

7.14

7.01

7.00

7.13

7.22

7.25

7.35

7.38

7.57

21 C

leve

land

&To

ledo

lstM

7s 1

885

6.93

6.89

6.95

6.97

6.93

6.93

6.91

6.99

7.13

7.16

6.96

7.04

7.06

23 B

uffa

loN

Y&

Erie

letM

7sl8

778.

378.16

8.14

8.04

7.98

7.96

7.90

8.01

8.18

8.75

8.99

8.97

8.94

24 C

hica

go&

Alto

nlst

M 7

s189

37.

026.

936.

877.

007.

016.

856.

737.

087.

047.

077.

177.

047.

0425

Pitt

sFtW

ayne

&C

hicl

stM

7s1

912

6.88

6.83

6.71

6.74

6.83

6.77

6.75

6.81

6.75

6.77

6.95

7.00

7.04

26 C

amde

n&A

mbo

yM6s

Nov

188

96.

496.

396.

466.

446.

356.

376.

376.

446.

506.

506.

736.

706.

7727

Tol

&W

abas

h ls

tM7s

189

08.

087.

947.

917.

937.

857.

627.

847.

857.

908.

007.

907.

997.

8928

StL

Alto

n&TH

RR

1stM

7s18

947.

607.

587.

637.

677.

667.

637.57

7.64

7.60

7.67

7.87

7.78

7.73

29 N

YC

entra

lrene

wal

bond

s6sl

887

6.83

6.73

6.74

6.74

6.69

6.60

6.59

6.46

6.56

6.75

6.82

6.95

7.00

30Mprris&EssexlstMsf7sl9l4

7.32

7.33

7.29

7.29

7.13

7.11

7.08

7.07

7.15

7.22

7.31

7.30

7.38

____

____

____

QI

.696

6.98

&93

Page 42: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 43: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 44: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

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OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

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JAN

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Ref

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Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

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May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.Nov.

Dec

.Ja

n.11 Camden&Amboy 6sJan 1889

12 Camden&Amboy6s 1883

13 NYCRRdebtcertificates6sl883

15 Chic Burl&Quincy lstM8s 1883

16 HudsonRiverRR

2dM

7s 1

885

6.69

6.93

7.26

6.84

6.76

7.00

6.98

7.3(

6.8ô

6.80

6.74

6.96

7.13

6.90

6.95

6:87

6.99

7.15

6.63

6.88

6.94

7.13

7.02

6.76

6.80

7.17

7'O

S7.07

6.70

6.75

7.16

7.22

7.12

6.72

6.73

7.13

7.36

7.13

6.65

6.66

7.18

7.45

7.09

6.64

6.68

7.24

7.40

7.21

6.83

6.78

7.25

7.50

7.22

6.90

6.66

7.26

7.71

7.13

6.95

6.47

7.14

7.43

6.86

6.25

6.43

17 Chic&NorWestRylstMsf7sls85

18 Philadelphia&ErielstM6sl88l

7.54

7.35

7.35

7.16

7.17

7.15

7.33

7.12

7.27

7.30

7.36

7.23

7.25

7.27

7.03

7.36

7.03

7.49

7.12

7.72

7.12

7.88

7.09

7.90

6.96

7.39

19 G

al&

Chi

UR

Rls

tM7s

l882

7.43

7.24

7.20

7.15

7.08

7.12

7.06

7.02

6.61

6.52

6.90

6.68

6.48

20 MichSo&NorlndjanalstM7sj885

7.28

7.20

7.14

7.04

6.94

6.95

6.94

6.86

6.90

7.15

7.12

6.99

6.77

21 Cleveland& Toledo lstM7s 1885

7.08

7.10

7.05

7.00

7.01

6.98

6.97

6.93

6.89

7.09

7.12

7.05

6.85

24 Chicago&Alton lstM7s 1893

7.09

6.93

7.00

6.98

6.94

6.93

6.80

6.81

6.63

6.64

6.93

6.76

6.65

25 PittsFtWayne&ChiclstM 7s1912

6.95

6.85

6.92

6.89

6.82

6.81

6,84

6.64

6.75

6.79

6.79

6.74

6.68

26 Camden&AmboyM6s Nov 1889

27 Tol&Wabash lstM7s 1890

6.57

7.93

6.55

7.84

6.61

7.86

6.62

7.79

6.53

7.82

6.50

7.72

6.53

7.60

6.57

7.46

6.52

7.47

6.67

7.83

6.60

7.83

6.66

7.62

6.56

7.26

28 StLAlton&THRR1stM7s1894

7.48

7.40

7.46

7.52

7.40

7.16

7.08

7.10

7.18

7.37

7.43

7.37

7.15

29 NYCentralrenewalbonds6s 1887

7,29

7.07

7.04

7.01

6.87

6.86

6.87

7.02

6.94

6.93

7.09

7.01

6.83

30 Morris&EssexlstMsf7sl9l4

7.03

6.97

6.96

6.96

6.93

6.85

6.85

6.84

6.79

6.91

6.89

6.89

6.77

31 N

Y&

Erje

RR

lstM

7s 1

897

7.44

7.35

7.30

7.04

7.05

7.06

7.04

7.07

7.20

7.24

7.07

7.01

32 M&StP(PduChdv)1stM8s1898

7.79

7.74

7.69

7.62

7.56

7.57

7.55

7.43

7.32

7.67

7.66

7.59

7.41

33 L

ehig

h V

alle

y R

R ls

tM6s

189

86.51

6.52

6.61

6.61

6.25

6.39

6.44

6.36

6.31

6.41

6.42

6.46

6.48

34 C

entra

l RR

of N

ew Je

rsey

M 7

s189

07.00

7.00

7.01

7.00

6.99

6.93

6.94

6,86

6.80

6.98

6.93

6.91

6.64

CA

3

Page 45: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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7.43

7.21

7.25

7.25

7.35

7.36

7.30

7.26

7.14

7.27

7.26

7.44

7.37

13NyCRRdebtcertificates6sl883

6.86

6.74

7.15

7.02

7.09

6.91

6.73

6.90

7.55

7.44

7.41

7.29

7.20

15 Chic Burl&Quincy lstM8s 1883

6.25

6.3!

6.41

6.51

6.66

6.49

6.07

6.38

6.51

6.60

6.74

6.72

6.45

16 Hudson River RR 2dM7s 1885

6.43

6.39

6.57

6.49

6.59

6.61

6.57

6.55

6.39

6.57

6.88

6.79

6.74

20M

ichS

o&N

orln

dian

a ls

tM7s

188

56.77

6.80

6.81

6.91

6.89

6.84

6.83

6.89

7.08

7.01

6.94

6.94

6.75

21 Cleveland &Toledo lstM7s 1885

6.85

6.76

7.17

6.95

6.94

6.89

6.81

6.87

6.93

6.95

7.01

7.03

6.96

24 Chicago&Alton lstM7s 1893

6.65

6.61

6.70

6.71

6.60

6.77

6.77

6.69

6.62

6.78

6.92

6.93

6.88

25 PittsFtWayne&ChiclstM7sl9l2

6.68

6.65

6.76

6.73

6.79

6.74

6.66

6.71

6.78

6.86

6.91

6.91

6.74

26Camden&AmboyM6s Nov

1889

6.5(

6.52

6.56

6.58

6.58

6.51

6.36

6.34

6.41

6.42

6.50

6.67

6.53

27 Tol&Wabash lstM7s 1890

7.2(

7.17

7.32

7.40

7.46

7.47

7.35

7.54

7.69

7.67

7.57

7.35

7.35

28 StLAlton&THRR lstM7s 1894

7.15

7.32

7.42

7.26

7.26

7.25

7.12

7.13

7.14

7.12

7.15

7.23

7.07

29 NYCentralrenewalbonds6s 1887

6.83

6.72

6.88

6.88

6.90

6.79

6.64

7.08

6.96

7.02

7.50

7.30

7.00

30 Morris&EssexlstMsf7sl9l4

6.77

6.74

6.85

6.80

6.82

6.71

6.61

6.83

6.96

6.87

6.88

6.78

6.79

31 NY&ErieRRlstM7s 1897

7.01

6.91

6.99

701

7.01

6.95

6.85

6.90

6.97

6.95

6.88

6.95

7.01

32 M&StP(PduChdv)1stM8s1898

7.41

7.42

7.44

7.50

7.53

7.54

7.45

7.37

7.47

7.62

7.58

7.64

7.63

33

Lehi

gh V

alle

yRR lstM6s 1898

6.43

6.47

6.46

6.30

6.26

6.18

6.22

6.29

6.37

6.37

6.51

6.48

34

6.62

6.65

6.68

6.73

6.67

6.51

6.66

6.82

6.88

6.96

6.94

6.75

35 LehighCoal&NavCoRRLoan6sl897

6.6C

6.57

6.68

6.71

6.69

6.50

6.43

6.33

6.36

6.50

6.57

6.62

6.73

36 Chicago&MilwaukeeRRlstM7sl89S

7.61

7.59

7.57

7.58

7.66

7.64

7.64

7.78

7.69

7.81

7.84

7.82

7.70

37 Lake Shore B.y Dividend bonds 7s 1899

7.66

7.57

7.45

7.48

7.43

7.43

7.46

7.46

7.54

7.67

7.64

7.74

7.76

38 CleyColCin&IndlstMsf7sl899

6.98

7.OC

7.06

7.06

7.00

6.99

6.95

6.96

6.99

7.02

7.03

7.04

6.98

39 Lehigh Valley RR 2ndMreg 7s 1910

6.99

7.06

6.96

6.92

6.74

6.75

6.74

6.79

6.82

6.83

6.83

6.86

6.86

40 Chic& Nor West Ry cons sf 781915

7.6(

7.57

7.52

7.44

7.33

7.31

7.32

7.46

7.61

7.62

7.63

7.82

7.83

Page 46: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 47: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A46

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Page 48: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 49: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

00 z '-4

JAN

. 187

6—JA

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Ref

.N

o.N

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ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pril

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec

.Ja

n.

24 Chicago&Alton IstM7s 1893

25 PittsFtWayne&ChiclstM 7s1912

26 Camden &AmboyM6sNov 1889

28 StLAlton&THRR lstM7s

1894

29 NYCentralrenewalbonds6sl887

5.88

5.99

5.58

6.48

5.74

5.65

5.99

5.58

6.44

5.62

5.63

5.91

5.63

6.42

5.52

5.60

5.90

5.73

6.44

5.65

5.56

5.86

5.67

6.64

5.59

5.47

5.86

5.54

6.27

5.61

5.37

5.81

5.52

6.26

5.44

5.23

5.65

5.44

6.32

5.37

5.31 5.77

5.44

6.44

.5.70

5,56

5.79

5.46

6.50

5.5.5

5.53

5.77

5.32

6.51

5.65

5.54

5.74

5.13

6.54

.5.80

5.54

5.80

5.08

6.25

5.54

30 Morris&EssexlstMsf7sl9l4

NY&ErieRRlstM7sl897

32 M&StP(PduChdv) lstM8s 1898

33 LehighValleyRRlstM 6s1898

34 CentratRRofNewJerseyM is 1890

6.07

6.43

6.94

5.72

5.64

5.97

6.37

6.79

5.70

5.52

5.96

6.33

6.68

5.65

5.60

5.96

6.11

6.73

5.67

5.87

6.01

6.30

6.79

5.62

5.87

5.98

6.25

6.83

5.52

6.05

5.84

6.20

6.73

5.52

5.70

5.78

6.27

6.60

5.60

5.65

6.01

6.41

6.60

5.58

6.26

6.01

6.06

6.69

5.56

6.18

5.94

6.29

6.69

5.44

6.12

.5.82

6.11

6.73

5.37

6.23

6.00

6.28

6.74

5.29

6.46

35 LehighCoat&NavCoRRLoan6s 1897

36 Chicago&MilwaukeeRRlstM 731898

37 Lake Shore Rydividend bonds is 1899

38 CleveColCin&LndlstMsf7sl899

39 Lehigh Valley RR2ndMreg 7s 1910

5.17

7.00

6.83

6.55

6.31

5.82

6.97

6.82

6.41

6.32

5.81

6.96

6.82

6.34

6.23

5.84

7.10

6.68

6.33

6.30

5.83

6.93

6.78

6.35

6.40

5.84

6.96

6.82

6.31

6.32

5.84

6.82

6.88

6.33

6.24

5.90

6.76

6.79

6.42

6.34

6.02

6.61

6.80

6.33

6.22

6.10

6.67

6.64

6.37

6.29

5.93

6.71

6.62

6.34

6.17

6.02

6.67

6.76

6.37

6.09

5.77

6.59

6.61

6.36

6.12

40 Chic&NorWestRyconssf7s 1915

41 LSh&MichSoconslstMsf 7s1900

42 Pennsylvania RR Co genM6s 1910

43 New York&Harletn RRconsM 7s1900

44 NYC&HRRR lstM7s 1903

7.05

6.79

5.94

5.85

5.52

6.92

6.7C

5.82

5.75

5.52

6.86

6.54

5.78

5.68

5.46

6.90

6.55

5.80

5.67

5.62

6.90

6.66

5.78

5.74

5.79

6.89

6.57

5.76

5.74

5.77

6.85

6.47

5.76

5.68

5.50

6.71

6.53

5.65

5.56

5.49

6.78

6.54

5.63

5.68

5.76

6.83

6.54

5.68

5.76

5.73

6.88

6.60

5.69

5.65

5.73

6.85'

6.70

5.57

5.65

5.78

6.84

6.59

5.49

5.59

5.70

45 Chic Burl& Quincy RR cons M

7819

036.42

6.35

6.32

6.30

6.29

6.28

6.22

6.24

6.22

6.29

6.28

6.24

Page 50: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

1877

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878

No.

Nam

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I:24

Chicago&Alton 1st M 7s 1893

5.54

5.58

5.77

5.80

5.79

5.57

5.39

5.53

5.65

5.75

5.79

5.84

5.70

25 Pitts Ft Wayne & Chic 1st M 7s1912

5.80

5.69

5,74

5.79

5.80

5.79

5.79

5.83

5.87

5.91

5.88

5.85

5.80

26 Camden&AmboyM 6s Nov 1889

5.08

5.12

5.27

5.47

5.36

5.23

5.21

5.05

5.01

5.10

5.20

5.13

5.08

28 StLAlton&THRR1stM7s1894

6.25

6.28

6.36

6.40

6.49

6.23

6.05

6.09

6.11

6.14

6.26

6.26

6.33

30 Morris&EssexlstMsf7sl9l4

6.00

6.09

6.09

6.10

6.06

5.93

5.98

6.07

6.04

6.08

6.04

6.00

6.02

31 NY&ErieRRlstM7sl897

6.28

6.28

6.08

6.02

5.98

5.90

5.94

5.94

6.05

6.17

6.11

6.05

6.15

32 M&StP(PduChdv)1stM8sj898

6.74

6.74

6.75

6.76

6.5S

6.67

6.71

6.70

6.83

6.83

6.75

6.59

6.49

33

Lehi

gh V

alle

y R

RlstM6s 1898

5.29

5.50

5.62

5.69

5.64

5.49

5.38

5.41

5.43

5.44

5.45

5.36

5.34

34 CentraiRRof NewJerseyM7s 1890

6.46

6.60

6.69

6.44

6.20

6.17

5.91

5.88

5.94

6.00

5.91

5.81

5.78

035

LehighCoal&NavCoRRLoan6sl897

5.77

5.87

6.13

6.18

6.13

6.13

6.00

5.91

5.81

5.71

5.94

5.96

5.90

36 Chicago&MilwaukeeRRistM7sl89S

6.59

6.51

6.61

6.61

6.67

6.46

6.29

6.38

6.45

6.52

6.50

6.45

6.85

37

Lake

Sho

re R

y di

vide

nd b

onds

7s 1

899

6.61

6.58

6.56

6.62

6.56

6.48

6.48

6.52

6.55

6.59

6.52

6.39

6.41

38ClevCoICin&IndlstMsf7sl899

6.36

6.36

6.52

6.52

6.45

6.21

6.28

6.35

6.44

6.42

6.42

6.30

6.37

39 Lehigh

Val

ley

RR

2ndM

reg

7s1910

6.12

6.34

6,40

6.58

6.52

6.45

6.31

6.39

6.25

6.21

6.15

6.14

6.15

40 Chic&NorWestRyconssf7sl9l5

6.846.81

6.75

6.74

6.69

6.63

6.65

6.66

6.63

6.65

6.59

6.57

6.55

41 LSh&MichSoconsjstMsflgj900

6.59

6.48

6.52

6.64

6.53

6.51

6.37

6.47

6.38

6.41

6.40

6.30

6.24

42 Pennsylvania RRCo genM6s 1910

5.49

5.56

5.67

5.67

5.64

5.66

5.65

5.72

5.66

5.69

5.69

5.65

5.56

43NewYork&I-Iarlem RRconsM7s 1900

5.59

5.59

5.72

5.63

5.65

5.71

5.66

5.70

5.72

5.81

5.58

5.64

5.55

44 NYC&HRRR1stM7s19O3

5.70

5.82

5.97

5.87

5.74

5.70

5.68

5.71

5.78

5.78

5.69

5.70

5.62

45ChicBurl&QuincyRRconsMlsl9o3

6.24

6.29

6.50

6.41

6.40

6.38

6.33

6.32

6.37

6.32

6.27

6.24

6.27

Page 51: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

JAN

.1879

Ref

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o.N

ame

of B

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Jan.

Feb.

Mar

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pril

May

June

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24

Chicago &

Alto

n 1s

t M 7

s 189

35.

705.66

5.62

5.57

5.67

5.54

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5.57

5.61

5.73

5.70

5,56

5.49

2326

2830

PittsFtWayne&ChiclstM7sl9l2

Camden&AmboyM6s Nov 1889

StLAlton&THRR lstM7s 1894

Morris&Essexlst,Msf7s1914

5.80

5.08

6.33

6.02

5.81

5.13

6.39

5.99

5.83

5.19

6.30

5.95

5.81

5.24

6.20

5.90

5.80

5.19

6.16

5.90

5.79

5.09

6.09

5.85

5.76

5.01

6.37

5.86

5.72

5.07

6.68

5.86

5.81

4.99

6.54

5.91

5.73

5.01

6.37

5.87

4.98

6.40

5.90

5.04

6.31

4.86

5.92

5.91

313233

NY&ErieRRIstM7sl897

M&StP(PduChdv)1stM8s1898

LehighValleyRRlstM6sl898

6.15

6.49

5.34

6.08

6.53

5.29

6.09

6.52

5.31

6.04

6.53

5.33

6.00

6.44

5.40

5.89

6.29

5.33

5.73

6.33

5.32

5.75

6.35

5.26

5.82

6.44

5.18

5.80

6.39

5.17

5.76

6.31

5.14

5.73

6.30

5.17

5.63

6.15

5.00

34

35

Central RR of New JerseyM 7s1890

Lehigh

Coa

l&N

avCo RR Loan

6s1897

5.78

5.90

5.80

5.78

5.79

5.91

5.85

5.96

5.83

5.84

5.64

5.78

5.52

5.73

5.57

5.72

5.47

5.64

5.54

5.69

5,56

5.61

5.63

5.67

36

37

Chicago&MilwaukeeRRlstM7sl89S

LakeShore Ry dividend bonds

7s1899

6.85

6.41

6.70

6.40

6.64

6.41

6.69

6.41

6.67

6.24

6.48

6.19

6.71

6.25

6.83

6.34

6.91

6.27

6.87

6.18

6.42

6,17

6.33

6.19

6.26

6.10

38.ClevCoICin&IndlstMsf7sl899

6.37

6,35

6.37

6.37

6.31

6.34

6.46

6.56

6.52

6.29

6.29

6.04

3940

Lehigh Valley RR2ndMreg 7s 1910

Chic&NorWestRyconssf7sl9l5

6.15

6.55

6.20

6.51

6.10

6.52

6.10

6.53

6.12

6.43

6.12

6.40

6.03

6.33

6.11

6.36

6.00

6.39

5.95

6.33

5.95

6.29

6.02

6.19

5.92

6.10

4142LSh&MichSoconslstMsf7sl900

PennsylvaniaRRCogenM6sl9l0

6.24

3.56

6.24

5.57

6.23

5.62

6.27

5.66

628

5.62

6.15

5.53

6.07

5.54

6.07

5.56

6.01

5.58

6,06

5.56

6.06

5.48

609

5.49

5.87

5.40

43

NewYork & Harlem RRcons M 7s 1900

5.55

5.58

5.54

5.54

5.54

3.50

5.48

5.51

5.54

5.55

5.46

5.40

5.36

44NYC&HRRRIstM7s19O3

5.62

5.65

5.66

5.67

5.63

5.62

5.63

5.68

5.69

5.66

5.68

5.65

5.49

45

ChicBurl&Quincy RRconsM7s 1903

6.27

6.29

6.32

6.30

6.28

6.21

6.10

6.02

6.03

6.05

6.02

5.94

5.80

46

47

Cleveland&PittsconssfM7s 1900

Mic

higa

nCen

tratR

Rco

nsM

7s1902

6.28

6.62

6.29

6.62

6.38

6.58

6.30

6.49

6.20

6.35

6.14

6.26

6.15

6.18

6.18

6.20

6.20

6.25

6.18

6.11

6.11

6.11

6.07

6.16

5.94

.5.98

C

Page 52: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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OF

RA

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32 M

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6.15

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986.

266.

056.

106.

156.

176.

115.

945.

856.

006.

055.

926.

015.

8537

-Lake Shore Rydividend bonds 7s

1899

6.10

5.85

6.05

5.89

5.74

5.60

5,94

5.76

5.67

5.85

5.75

5.65

5.56

038

Clev Col Cm & Ind 1st M sf

7s 1

899

6.04

5,84

5.97

5.90

5.69

5.67

5.65

5.67

5.87

5.87

3.66

5.63

5.66

39 Lehigh Valley RR 2nd M reg 7s 1910

5.92

5.82

5.85

5.87

5.75

5.69

5.61

5.73

5.64

5.57

5.54

5.52

5.50

40 Chic&NorWestRyconssf7s 1915

6.10

5.89

5.99

5.96

5.82

5.76

5.67

5.64

5.86

5.91

3.85

5.77

5.66

41 LSh&MichSoconslstMsf7sl900

5.87

5.66

5.74

5.80

5.59

5.51

5.41

5.48

5.56

5.54

5.79

5.46

5.39

42 Pennsylvania RR Co genM6s 1910

5.40

5.31

5.31

5.36

5.20

5.13

5.07

5.05

5.07

5.09

5.11

5.10

5.09

43 NewYork&HarlemRRconsM7sl900

5.36

5.31

5.34

5.38

5.29

5.21

5.10

5.11

5.21

5.21

5.09

5.10

5.01

44 NYC&HRRRIstM7s19O3

5.49

5.39

5.49

545

5.39

5.35

5.18

5.21

5.29

5.26

5.30

.5.29

5.17

45ChicBurl&QuincyRRconsM7sl903

5.80

5.71

5.81

5.80

5.67

5.65

5.58

5.46

5.58

5.58

5.57

5.59

5.57

46 Clevejand&PittsconssfM7s 1900

5.94

5.70

5.90

.5.86

5.81

5.85

5,90

5.97

5.85

5.63

5.63

5.62

5.61

47 Michigan CentralRRconsM 7s1902

5.98

5.67

5.90

5.85

5.65

5.60

5.56

5.62

5.71

5.65

5.64

5.65

5.61

48 Central Pacific RR lstM6s 1895

5.41

5.21

5.30

5.20

5.13

5.12

5.15

5.24

5.24

5.20

5.24

5.20

5.18

-

49ChieagoRkls&PacRRlstM6sl9l7

5.39

5.27

5.35

5.28

5.20

5.21

5.19

5.21

5.28

3.23

.5.23

5.19

5.12

-I

Page 53: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

C."

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

JAN

. 188

0—JA

N. 1

881

Ref.

No.

Nam

e of

Bon

dJa

n.Fe

b.M

ar.

Apr

ilM

ayJu

neJu

lyA

ug.

Sept

.O

ct.

Nov

.D

ec.

Jan.

25PittsFtWayne&ChiclstM7sl9l2

5.35

5.26

5.20

5.18

5.20

5,21

4.94

4.85

4.80

4.83

4.77

4.74

4.74

30Morris&EssexlstMsflsl9l4

5.44

5.49

5.29

5.30

5.29

5.16

5.13

5.04

3.10

3.17

4.94

4.94

4.99

31 NY&ErieRR lstMls 1897

5.27

5.26

5.22

5.24

5.12

5.03

4.91

4.96

4.85

4.82

4.74

4.69

4.57

32M&StP(PdttChdv)lstMSsl898

5.84

5.71

5.76

5.67

5.71

5.47

5.40

5.36

5.27

5.22

5.14

5.09

5.07

33 Lehigh

Val

leyRR lstM6s 1898

4.74

4.71

4.67

4.65

4.67

4.54

4.54

4.63

4.61

4.53

4.40

4.31

4.34

35 LehighCoal&Nav.CoRRLoan6sl897

5.19

5.14

5.12

5.26

5.15

5.18

5.23

5.12

4.85

4.81

4.72

4.72

4.72

36 Chicago&MilwaukeeRRlstM 7s1898

5.85

5.82

.5.78

5.82

5.84

5.84

5.54

.5.42

5.42

5.46

5.16

5.11

5.12

37

Lake

Sho

re R

y di

vide

nd b

onds

7s 1

899

5.56

5.58

5.60

5.64

5.66

5.52

5.48

5.48

5.44

5.37

5.25

5.16

.5.16

38 ClevColCjn&Indjst.Msf7s1899

5.66

5.62

5.57

5,53

5.51

5.50

5.49

5.4!

5,37

5.28

5.14

4.87

4.89

39 LehighValleyRR2ndMreg7sl9lo

5.50

5.49

.5.38

5.37

5.34

5.30

5.31

3.22

5.11

5.07

5.09

5.07

4.95

40 Chic&NorWestRyconssf7sl9l5

5.66

5.56

5.62

5.66

5.65

5.65

5.58

5.46

.5.45

5.31

5.11

5.02

5.00

41 LSh&MichSoconslstMsf7sl900

5.39

5.25

5.21

5.42

5.36

5.35

5.21

5.09

5.16

5.16

5.02

4.85

4.65

42 PennsylvaniaRRCogenM6s 1910

5.09

4.97

4.99

5.00

5.09

5,00

4.87

4.81

4.76

4.72

4.72

4.63

4.49

43 NewYork&Harlem RReonsM7g 1900

5.01

5.06

.5.14

5.11

5.09

5.00

4.82

4.80

4.82

4.75

4.55

4.48

4.46

44 NYC&HRRR1stM7s19O3

5.17

5.11

.5.13

5.16

5.15

5.09

4.88

4.80

4.86

4.82

4.71

4.62

4.55

45 ChicBttrl&QuiricyRRconsM7s 1903

5.57

5:51

5.50

5.51 .5.50

5.49

5.42

5.26

5.25

5.19

5.09

4.97

4.94

46 Cleveland&Pitts cons sfM 7s1900

5.61

5,62

5.59

5,59

5.48

5.48

5.41

5,38

5,39

5,37

5.29

5.25

5.24

47 MichigancentralRRconsM7s 1902

5.61

3.60

5.60

5.56

5.60

5.63

5.48

5.29

5.34

5.19

4.97

5.00

4.98

48 CentralPacificRRlstM6sl89S

5.18

4.94

4.97

4.97

5.01

4.91

4.88

4.90

4.97

4.93

4.85

4.83

4.72

49 ChicagoRkls&PacRRlstM6sl9l7

5.12

5.02

5.03

5.09

5.07

5.06

4.84

4.85

4.81

4.72

4.67

4.57

4.58

50 Chicago &Nor WestconsM7s 1902

5.82

5.81

.5.84

3.83

5.77

5.66

5.67

5.63

5.59

5.50

5.27

5.02

5.01

31

5.90

5.80

5.81

5.86

5.89

5.90

5,74

3,73

5.64

5.65

5.65

5.53

5.46

52 StPaulMinn&Man2ndM6sl9O9

6.58

6.52

6.49

6.41

6.35

6,36

6,32

6.33

6.06

5.98

6.01

6.03

5.89

53 NashChatt&StLlstM7sl9l3

6.40

6.10

6.12

6.12

6.15

6.22

6.36

6.33

6.36

6.28

5.98

5.87

5.78

54

1919

6.20

5.99

3.93

5.93

.5.96

5,98

.5.93

5.85

5.82

5.74

5.62

5.51

5.34

Page 54: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 55: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

1883

Ref

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o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pril

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

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n.25

Pitts

FtW

ayne

&C

hicl

stM

7s1912

4.74

4.74

4.77

4.70

4.70

4.69

4.73

4.75

4.77

4.75

4.79

4.74

4.73

30 Morris&Essexlst Msf7s1914

4.82

4.94

4.96

4.84

4.81

4.90

4.85

4.80

4.77

4.79

4.84

4.86

4.82

32M&StP(PduCh dv) lstM 8s1898

5.02

4.98

5.09

5.06

5.00

5.03

5.14

5.12

5.11

5.11

5.01

5.12

5.08

33 LehighVaIleyRRlstMósl898

4.29

4.19

4.25

4.22

4.10

4.28

4.16

4.16

4.18

4.22

4.37

4.36

4.28

37 LakeShoz-eRydividendbondslsl899

5.15

5.17

5.20

5.16

5.14

3.15

5.17

5.21

5.26

5.20

5.20

5.21

5.16

38 ClevColCin&lndlstMsf7sl899

5.05

5.03

5.05

5.00

4.94

4.91

5.04

5.05

5.27

5.43

5.15

5.13

5.08

39

Lehi

gh V

alle

yRR 2ndMreg 7s 1910

4.96

4.97

4.97

4.89

4.92

4.89

4.93

4.89

4.86

4.89

4.93

4.94

4,88

40 Chic&NorWestRyconssf7s1915

5.06

5.11

5.11

5.08

4.98

5.07

5.07

5.10

5.05

4.98

5.07

5.00

5.05

41 LSh&MichSoconslstMsflsl900....

4.60

4.73

4.88

4.87

5.04

4.92

4.73

4.91

4.89

4.81

4.81

4.81

4.74

42PernisylvaniaRRCogenMôsi9l0

4.78

4.61

4.53

4.51

4.51

4.59

4.52

4.48

4.48

4.51

4.57

4.60

4.58

43 NewYork& Harlem RRconsMls 1900...

4.33

4.36

4.55

4.49

4.44

4.46

4.47

4.51

4.55

4.49

4.44

4.83

4.62

44 NYC&HRRR lstM7s 1903

4.51

4.54

4.59

4.58

4.58

4.61

4.65

4.59

4.65

4.61

4.63

4.67

4.65

45

Chi

c B

url&

Qui

ncy

RR

coris

Mls

190

3....

4.98

5.06

5.10

5.01

5.01

4.88

4.89

4.91

4.97

5.00

4.97

5.00

4.94

46 Cleveland&Pitts cons sfM 7s1900

4.87

5.05

4.98

4.98

4.95

4.94

4.99

5.12

5.07

4.95

4.99

4.83

4.89

47Michigan Central RR consMls 1902

5.17

5.11

5.08

5.07

5.02

5.12

5.14

5.17

5.15

.5.00

5.21

5.21

5.07

48 Central Pacific RR lstMós 1895

4.64

4.68

4.64

4.57

4.49

4.45

4.35

4.44

4.62

4.67

4.70

4.65

4.59

49 ChicagoRkls&PacRRlstM6sl9l7..

4.55

4.53

4.51

4.53

4.56

4.51

4.39

4.48

4.57

4.50

4.52

4.55

4.57

50Chicago&

Nor

WestconsM7s 1902

5.10

5.16

5.24

5.08

5.05

5.05

4.95

5.10

5.12

5.04

5.07

5.02

5.03

51 ChicStPaul&MinnlstM6sl9l8

5.42

5.39

5.44

5.31

5.27

5.29

5.25

5.41

5.3.5

5.29

5.35

5.35

5.32

52 StPaulMinn&Man2ndM6sl9O9

5.71

5.79

5.70

5.56

5.46

5.35

5.25

5.35

5.31

5.31

5.40

5.46

5.51

53 Nash Chatt & St List M 7s 1913

5.91

5.98

6.06

6.01

5.99

6.05

6.04

6.02

5.99

6.07

6.07

6.03

5.88

54 StP&SiouxCityRRlstM6sl9l9

5.49

5.38

5.41

5.39

5.40

5.39

5.39

5.46

5.45

5.40

5.41

5.36

5.31

55 CM&StP(SoMin.Dv)lstM6si9lO

5.74

5.81

5,81

5.66

5.59

5.55

5.51

5.50

5.55

5.55

5.58

5.60

s.ss

56Canada Southern

RylstM5s 1908

5.31

5.49

5.55

5.48

5.46

.5.43

5.50

5.54

5.57

5.58

5.59

5.37

5.33

57ChicStPMin&OmahaconsM6sl930

6.09

6.09

6.11

6.00

5.89

5.89

5.78

5.76

5.74

.5.68

5.71

5.59

5.54

58 StPMin&Man(DakDv)lstMósl9lO....

5.70

5.70

5.70

5.66

5.56

5.52

5.49

5.54

5.58

5.59

5.58

5.59

59 Philadelphia&EriegenM5s 1920

4.79

4.82

4.86

4.88

4.91

4.88

4.83

4.86

4.85

4.86

4.90

4.89

4.87

60 CM&StP(C&PWDv)lstMSsl92l....

5.36

5.55

5.51

5.47

5.47

5.51

5.48

5.45

5.50

5.56

5.61

5.58

5.55

Page 56: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

JAN

. 188

3—JA

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884

Ref

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ame

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Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pril

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

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Dec

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Pitts Ft Wayne & Chic 1st

M 7

s191

24.

734.

764.

764.

624.

734.

764.

724.73

4.72

-4.

134.74

4.77

4.67

30 Morris&EssexlstMsulsi9l4

4.82

4.89

4.90

4.88

4.85

4.86

4.86

4.91

4.88

4.82

4.84

4.87

4.82

32 M&StP(PduChdv)1stM8s1898

5.08

5.04

5.05

5.09

5.13

5.15

5.02

5.17

5.18

5.15

5.03

4.99

5.08

33 LehighValleyRRlstM6sl898

4.28

4.16

4.24

4.32

4.26

4.22

4.30

4.36

4.40

4.42

4.34

4.30

4.25

37 Lake

Shor

eRy dividend bonds 7s 1899

5.16

5.22

5.20

5.21

5.22

5.22

5.16

5.16

5.13

5.13

5.13

5.04

5.02

38 ClevColCin&IndIstMsf7sl899

S.08

5.09

5.11

5.10

5.10

5.14

5.02

5.16

5.18

5.15

5.18

5.22

5.24

39 Lehigh

Val

leyRR 2ndMreg 7s 1910

4.88

4.88

4,86

4.84

4.90

4.88

4.84

4.92

4.98

4.96

4.90

4:93

4.88

40 Chic&NorWestRyconssf7sl9lS

5.05

5.08

5.13

5.10

5.11

5.07

5.02

5.01

5.11

5.10

4.99

5.00

5.04

41 LSh&MichSoconslstMsflst900

4.74

4.86

4.98

5.07

5.02

4.95

4.88

4.85

5.00

4.87

4.84

4.96

4.72

42 PennsylvaniaRRCogenM6sl9l0

4.58

4.58

4.59

4.62

4.56

4.59

4.61

4.67

4.73

4.75

4.73

4.72

4.68

43 New Vork&Harlem RRconsM 7s1900

4.62

4.62

4.64

4.61

4.62

4.68

4.66

4.69

4.69

4.72

4.74

4.53

4.47

44 NYC&HRRR1stM7sI9O3

4.64

4.73

4.75

4.74

4.78

4.76

4.80

4.81

4.75

4.73

4.73

4.65

4.53

45 Chic Burl&Quincy RRconsM7s 1903

4.94

4.99

4.99

4.95

4.95

4.93

4.91

4.95

4.95

4.92

4.93

4.88

4.73

46 Cleveland &Pitts conssfM7s 1900

4.89

4.96

5.01

5.01

5.09

5,05

5.07

5.09

5.12

5.11

5.01

4.99

5.00

47 MichiganCentralRRconsM7s 1902

5.07

5.11

5.13

5.11

5.12

5.10

5.06

5.22

5.21

5.19

5.08

5.03

5.05

48 Central

Paci

ficRR lstMós 1895

4.59

4.61

4.65

4.64

4.66

4.63

4.70

4.79

4.81

4.79

4.80

4.67

4.34

49 ChicagoRkls&PacRRlstM6sl9ll

4.57

4.61

4.66

4.68

4.60

4.61

4.62

4.64

4.59

4.51

4.55

4.51

4.49

50

Chi

cago

&Nor West consMls 1902

5.03

5.10

5.15

5.11

5.15

5.20

5.23

5.22

5.16

5.06

5.05

5.04

51 Chic St Paul&Minn lstMós 1918

5.32

5.44

5.24

5.25

5.15

5.19

5.21

5.24

5.26

5.18

5.14

5.18

5.07

52 StPaulMinn&Man2adM6sl9O9

5.51

5.52

5.57

5.38

5.42

5.48

5.35

5.44

5.40

5.47

5.44

5.46

5.44

53 NashChatt&StLlstM7sl9l3

5.88

5.96

5.92

5.89

5.87

5.87

5.86

5.87

5.86

5.87

5.81

5.80

5.82

54 StP&SiouxCity RRlstM6s 1919

5.31

5.40

5.41

5.39

5.27

5.26

5.26

5.21

5.20

5.19

5.15

5.15

5.12

55 CM&StP(SoMinDv)lstM6sl9lO

5.55

5.60

5.65

5.58

5.56

5.54

5.59

5.63

5.61

5.54

5.48

5.51

5.51

56 Canada Southern Ry lstMSs 1908

5.33

5.44

5.40

5.31

5.30

5.21

5.30

5.43

5.45

5.45

5.34

5.29

5.33

57 Chic

StPM

in&

Om

ahac

onsM

6s1930

5.54

5.62

5.68

5.66

5.61

5.58

5.53

5.46

3.53

5.61

5.57

5.52

5.51

58 St PMin&Man (DakDv) lstM 6s1910

5.49

5.51

5.55

5.43

5.44

5.49

5.50

5.53

5.49

5.47

5.42

5.46

5.42

59 Philadelphia & Erie gen M 581920

4.87

4.83

4.84

4.83

4.85

4.89

4.88

4.90

4.90

4.86

4.85

4.83

4.79

60 CM&StP(C&PWDv) lstMSs 1921

5.55

5.56

5.54

5.47

5.43

5.37

5.39

5.48

5.47

5.46

5.47

5.38

5.43

61 CM&StP(Wis&MinDv)lstMSs1921

5.56

5.58

5.64

5.63

5.69

5.65

5.64

3.71

5.54

5.69

5.62

5.57

5.57

62 ChicStLouis&NOrleans5sl9Sl

4.83

4.84

4.88

4.84

4.80

4.75

4.78

4.81

4.80

4.81

4.75

4.65

4.71

63 Pennsylvania Cogu

1921

4.81

4.80

4.81

4.80

4.81

4.83

4.81

4.84

4.85

4.84

4.82

4.79

4.85

C;'

Page 57: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

JAN

. 188

4—JA

N. 1

88.S

Ref

.'No.

Nam

e of

Bon

dJa

n.Fe

b.M

ar.

Apr

ilM

ayJu

neJu

lyA

ug.

Sept

,O

ct.

Nov

.D

ec.

Jan.

25PittsFtWayne&ChiclstM7sl9I2...

4.67

4.62

4.63

4.64

4.61

4.73

4.71

4.69

4.70

4.65

4.70

4.69

4.68

30Morris&EssexlstMsf7sl9l4

4.82

4.70

4.75

4.74

4.85

4.93

4.85

4.88

4.85

4.78

4.79

4.79

4.84

32 M & St P (P dii Chdv) 1st M Ss 1898...

5.08

4.97

4.97

4.96

5.02

5.04

5.00

4.99

5.05

5.09

5.10

5.05

4.96

33 LehighValleyRRlstM6sl89O

.4.

254.24

4.10

4.06

4.13

4.17

4.13

4.20

4.15

4.07

4.10

4.09

4.02

37 Lake Shore Ry dividend bonds

is 1

899

.5.

024.92

4.94

4.99

3.13

5.18

5.22

5.19

5.21

5.20

5.18

5.14

5.09

38 ClevCoICin&IndlstMsf7sl899

5.24

5.09

5.01

4.98

5.18

5.14

5.45

5.21

5.01

4.93

4.97

5.02

5.02

39 Lehigh Valley RR 2ndMreg 7s 1910

4.88

4.85

4.87

4.84

4.84

4.87

4.90

4.90

4.97

4.93

4.78

4.83

4.77

40 Chlc&NorWestRyconssfisl9l5

5.04

4.98

4.98

4.99

4.99

5.31

5.18

4.99

5.02

5.03

4.97

4.92

4.90

41 LSh&MichSoconslstMsfisl900

4.72

4.68

4.69

4.56

4.76

4.72

4.99

4.81

4.76

4.81

4.83

4.74

4.65

42 Pennsylvania RR Co genM6s 1910

4.68

4.66

4.63

4.65

4.67

4.71

4.57

4.59

4.62

4.58

4.54

4.50

4.41

43 NewYork&Harlem RRconsM7s 1900

4.47

4.44

4.47

4.29

4.41

4.54

4.61

4.50

4.56

4.61

4.58

4.53

4.12

44 NYC&HRRR1stM7s19O3

4.53

4.51

4.59

4.50

4.61

4.71

4.65

4.55

4.59

4.71

4.72

4.64

4.46

45 Chic Burl&Quincy RRconsM 7s1903

4.73

4.71

4.71

4.76

4.85

5.05

5.00

4.97

4.93

4.85

4.86

4.73

4.60

46 Cleveland&Pitts cons sfM 781900

5.00

4.85

4.81

4.86

4.84

4.93

4.96

4.93

5.03

4.90

4.80

4.92

4.93

47 Michigan Central RRconsM7s 1902

5.05

4.95

4.88

4.87

5.01

5.02

5.03

4.99

5.02

5.00

5.02

5.10

4.99

48 CentralPacificRRlstM6sl895

4.34

4.68

4.54

4.59

4.80

5.04

5.11

4.77

4.81

4.87

5.06

4.92

4.80

Z49

ChicagoRkls&PacRRlstM6sl9li

4.49

4.50

4.52

4.52

4.55

4.59

4.60

4.56

4.57

4.59

4.60

4.56

4.47

50 Chicago&Nor West

cons

M7s1902

5.04

4.95

4.89

4.88

4.91

5.12

5.16

5.06

5.05

5.02

5.00

4.89

4.84

51ChicStPaul&MinnlstMósl9l8

5.07

4.99

4.95

4.98

4.99

5.17

5.17

5.09

5.02

3.09

5.05

5.01

5.00

52 St Paul Minn&Man 2ndMós 1909

5.44

5.34

5.27

5.20

5.33

5.69

5.64

5.52

5.47

5.38

5.50

5.39

5.35

53 N'ashChatt&StLlstM7sI9l3

5.82

5.80

5.78

5.64

5.76

5.80

5.93

5.87

5.92

5.92

5.99

5.84

5.78

54

StP&

Siou

xCity

RR

lstM

Osl

9l9

5.12

5.08

5.00

4.99

5.09

5.11

5.15

5.06

5.04

5.05

5.08

5.07

5.05

55 CM&StP(SoMinDv)lstMósl9lO

5.51

5.37

5.29

5.21

5.31

.5.64

5.72

5.40

5.51

5.56

5.59

5.50

5.42

56 Canada Southern Ry lstMSs 1908

5.33

5.21

5.09

5.05

5.17

5.38

5.41

5.27

5.32

5.33

5.37

5.29

5.28

57 ChicStPMin&OmahaconsM6s 1930

5.51

.5.45

5.38

5.36

5.49

5.67

5.47

5.40

5.45

5.45

5.47

5.41

5.36

58 St P

M ós 1910

5.42

5.34

5.29

5.28

5.36

5.51

5.48

5.46

5.53

5.49

5.46

5.41

.5.39

59 Philadelphia&EriegenM5s 1920

4.79

4.77

4.74

4.74

4.74

4.86

4.89

4.90

4.95

4.89

4.86

4.81

4.78

60 CM&StP(C&PWDv) lstMSs 1921

5.43

5.35

5.14

5.08

5.31

5.48

5.41

5.42

5.37

5.46

5.44

5.35

5.42

61 CM&StP(Wis&MinDv)lstMSsl92l

5.57

5.50

5.34

5.14

5.37

5.52

5.60

5.50

5.49

5.52

5.46

5.43

5.44

62 C

hicS

tLou

is&

NO

rIea

ns5s

l9Sl

4.71

4.72

4.66

4.68

4.68

4.71

4.77

4.77

4.78

4.79

4.82

4.80

4.77

63 Pennsylvania Co gu

1921

4.85

4.80

4.78

4.77

4.79

4.86

4.83

4.82

4.79

4.71

4.74

4.71

4.74

64 New York Lack&West lstM6s 1921

4.95

4.88

4.90

4.83

4.98

5.15

5.18

5.00

4.96

5.02

5.04

4.99

4.97

Page 58: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

1885

—JA

N. 1

886

Ref

.N

o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pril

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec

.Ja

n.25

PittsFtWayne&ChiclstM7sl9l2

4.68

4.67

4.60

4.56

4.57

4.59

4.57

4.48

4.48

4.49

4.50

4.47

4.35

30Morris&EssexlstMsflsl9l4

4.84

4.73

4.68

4.72

4.49

4.41

4.57

4.48

4.48

4.48

4.46

4.49

4.47

32 M&StP(PduChdv)1stM8s1898

4.96

4.88

4.86

4.85

4.96

4.85

4.86

4.70

4.67

4.52

4.50

4.56

4.58

33 Lehigh Valley RR lstM6s 1898

4.02

3.93

3.94

3.92

3.89

3.86

3.80

3.74

3.67

3.74

3.72

3.60

3.66

37 Lake Shore Ry dividend bonds is 1899

5.09

5.06

4.97

4.92

5.04

4.99

4.97

4.97

4.97

4.96

4.92

4.90

4.83

38 ClevCoICin&IndlstMsflsl899

5.02

5.04

5.06

4.80

4.95

5.00

4.93

4.97

4.84

4.80

4.71

4.85

4.63

39Le

high

Val

ley

RR

2nd

Mre

g 7s

191

04.77

4.77

4.70

4.67

4.64

4.63

4.65

4.63

4.60

4.50

4.46

4.44

4.44

40Chic&NorWestRyconssf7sl9i5

4.90

4.80

4.78

4.78

4.75

4.64

4.66

4.69

4.71

4.67

4.64

4.64

4.57

41 LSh&MichSoconsjstMsf7sl900

4.65

4.63

4.62

4.52

4.54

4.55

4.48

4.47

4.46

4.47

4.50

4.47

4.34

42 PennsylvaniaRRCogenMos 1910

4.41

4.38

4.33

4.28

4.20

4.12

4.22

4.26

4.26

4.25

4.19

4.15

4.07

43 N

ewY

ork&

Har

!em

RR

cons

M7s

190

04.12

4.21

4.12

4.14

4.05

3.95

3.88

3.80

3.86

3.81

3.77

3.75

3.78

44

4.46

4.39

4.32

4.32

4.26

4,26

4,24

4.32

4.25

4.17

4.15

4.13

4.12

45Chic Burl&Quincy RRconsM7s 1903

4.60

4.59

4.51

4.52

4.49

4.38

4.30

4.30

4.29

4.20

4.26

4,24

4.12

46 Cleveland&PittsconssfM7sl900

4.93

4.96

4.99

4.92

4.86

4.77

4.67

4.53

4.51

4.53

4.51

4.51

4.52

47M

ichi

gan

Cen

tralR

Rco

nsM

7s 1

902

4.99

4.90

4.84

4.93

4.91

4.91

4.91

4.95

4.81

4.66

4.63

4.65

4.51

49ChicagoRkls&PacRRlstM6sl9l7

4.47

4.39

4.37

4.39

4.37

4.29

4.24

4.31

4.30

4.28

4.29

4.29

4.31

050

Chicago & Nor West cons M 7s 1902

4.84

4.78

4.71

4.74

4.70

4.65

4.47

4.67

4.71

4.61

4.52

4.54

4.38

51ChicStPaut&MinnlstM6s 1918

5.00

4.96

4.81

4.88

4.87

4.81

4.78

4.74

4.71

4.74

4.75

4.67

4.55

52 St PaulMinn&Man2ndM6s 1909

5.35

5.3S

5.21

5.19

5.14

5.04

5.07

5.12

5.01

4.92

4.89

4.84

4.76

53NashChatt&StLlstM7s 1913

5.78

5.82

5.80

5.74

5.68

5.67

5.62

5.49

5.53

5.48

5.40

5.40

5.37

54 StP&SiouxCityRRlstM6sl9l9

5.05

4.98

4.91

4.93

4.86

4.84

4.81

4.82

4.81

4.70

4.69

4.69

4.58

II

55 CM&StP(SoMinDv) lstM6s 1910

5.42

5.35

5.30

5.25

5.25

5.21

5.10

5.11

514

5.11

5.04

5,01

4.90

56

Can

ada

Sout

hern

Ry

lstM

Ss 1

908

5.28

5.26

5.18

5.29

5.37

5.25

5,16

5.05

5.04

4.95

4.90

4.70

4.69

57ChicStPMin&OmahaconsM6s 1930

5.36

5.34

5.44

5.45

5.42

5.35

5.33

5,35

5.30

5.23

5.15

4.99

4.92

58 StPMin&Man(DakDv)lstM6sl9iO

5.39

5.35

5.25

5.27

5.27

5.08

5.10

5.07

5.00

4.94

4.91

4.83

4.71

59 Philadelphia&Erie genM5s 1920

4.78

4.70

4.68

4.65

4.61

4.58

4.61

4.58

4.54

4.51

4.47

4.49

4.43

60CM&StP(C&PWDv)lstMSsl92l

5.42

5.38

5.37

.5.38

5.33

5.23

5.11

5.13

5.13

5.06

4.98

4.88

4.81

61 CM&StP(Wis&MinDv) lstMSsl92l....

5.44

5.42

5.43

5.45

5.39

5.27

5.17

.5.18

5.18

5.09

5.00

4.96

4.84

62 ChicStLouis&NOrleans5s 1951

4.77

4.72

4.64

4.55

4.58

4.54

4.45

4.46

4.45

4.46

4.49

4.54

4.44

63Pennsylvania Cogu

1921

4.74

4.62

4.61

4.62

4.54

4.51

4.52

4.53

4.55

4.50

4.46

4.46

4.29

64 New VorkLack&West lstM6s 1921

4.97

4.88

4.85

4.81

4.87

4.79

4.65

4.65

4.73

4.74

4.71

4.62

4.43

65 Hannibal&St Joseph consM6s 1911

5.11

5.03

4.97

4.98

4.93

4.89

4.89

4.90

4.94

4.91

4.89

4.89

4.77

Page 59: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

-JA

N.

1886

—JA

N. 1

881

Ref

.N

o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pril

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec

.Ja

n.25

Pitts

FtW

ayne

&C

hicl

stM

7Sl9

l24.

354.

304.29

4.29

4.30

4.31

4.29

4.29

4.42

4.34

4.36

4.41

442

30Morris&EssexlstMsf7sl9l4

4.47

4.37

4.34

4.38

4.38

4.40

4.42

4.39

4.39

4.40

4.38

4.44

4:44

32M&StP(PduChdv)1stM8s1898

4.58

4.36

4.43

4.27

4.32

4.30

4.27

4.26

4.37

4.42

4.46

4.44

4.50

33 LehighValleyRRlstM6sl898

3.6(

3.60

3.55

3.58

3.60

3.65

3.46

3.45

3.50

3.50

3.60

3.62

3.57

37LakeShore Rydividend bonds 7s 1899

4.83

4.76

4.69

4.74

4.69

4.67

4.65

4.64

4.70

4.70

4.67

4.66

4.69

38 CkvColCin&IndlstMsf7sl899

4.63

4.47

4.43

4.47

4.60

4.51

4.55

4.60

4.63

4.60

4.54

4.62

4.66

39LehighValleyRR2ndMreg7sl9l0

4.44

4.37

4.32

4.35

4.30

4.26

4.28

4.10

4.21

4.26

4.30

4.19

4.11

40 Chic &Nor West Ry cons sf 7s 1915

4.57

4.47

4.45

4.49

4.46

4.43

4.42

4.42

4.49

4.52

4.56

4.55

4.53

41LSh&MichSoconslstMsf7si900

4.34

4.24

4.24

4.25

4.25

4.15

4.14

4,28

4.25

4.27

4.30

4.39

4.36

42 Pennsylvania RR Co genM6s 1910

4.07

3.90

3.93

3.98

4.12

4.05

3.78

3.85

3.98

4.06

4.10

4.07

3.83

43 NewYork&HarlemRRconsM

3.7.S

3.80

3.83

3.86

3.83

3.83

3.85

3.92

3.99

4.00

3.95

4.06

3.98

44 NVC&HRRR lstM7s 1903

4.12

4.07

4.09

4.05

4.02

3.96

4.02

3.99

4.15

4.19

4.06

4.05

4.11

45 Chic Burl&Quincy RRconsM7s 1903

4.12

4.08

4.21

4.25

4.27

4.16

4.17

4.25

4.35

4.39

4.30

4.31

4.19

46 Cleveland&PittsconssfM 7s1900

4.52

4.46

4.44

4.44

4.40

4.38

4.36

4.35

4.40

4.41

4.42

4.45

4.41

47 MichiganCentralRRconsMls 1902

4.51

4.51

4.48

4.44

4.39

4.47

4.44

4.48

4.51

4.49

4.51

4.53

4,5j

49 ChicagoRkls&PacRRlstM6sl9ll

..

4.31

4.21

4.20

4.21

4.12

4.15

4.07

4.00

3.99

3.92

3.93

3.99

50Chicago& Nor WestconsMls 1902

4.38

4.27

4.18

4.23

4.10

4.11

4.14

4.14

4.26

4.33

4.30

4.33

4.25

51

Chi

cStP

aul&

Min

nlst

Môs

l9l8

4.55

4.42

4.41

4.42

4.41

4.41

4.45

4.41

4.42

4.46

4.48

4:50

4.44

52 St Paul Minn&Man 2ndM6s 1909

..

4.76

4.63

4.67

4.70

4.71

4.70

4.68

4.69

4.77

4.70

4.62

4.79

4.72

53 NashChatt&StLlstM7sl9l3

5.37

5.27

5.18

5.16

5.30

5.25

5.03

5.03

5.07

5.09

5.07

5.05

4.99

34 StP&SiouxCityRRlstM6sl9l9

4.58

4.30

4.48

4.51

4.51

4.47

4.52

4.49

4.51

4.49

4.51

4.53

4.52

35 C M & St P (So Mm Dv) 1st M ós 1910

4.90

4.81

4.84

4.88

4.83

4.78

4.61

4.70

4.87

4.92

4.95

4.88

4 86

56 Canada Southern Ry lstMSs 1908

4.69

4.55

4.59

4.64

4.65

4.59

4.52

4.61

4.68

4.63

4.62

4.65

4.59

57 ChicStPMin&OmahaconsM6s 1930

4.92

4.90

4.92

4.91

4.81

4.76

4.75

4.84

4.74

4.76

4.79

4.81

4.84

k58

St P Mm & Man (Dak Dv) 1st M 6s 1910

4.71

4.65

4.66

4.69

4.74

4.70

4.70

4.62

4.75

4.72

4.69

4.81

4.73

59 Philadeljhia&EriegenM5s 1920

4.43

4.40

4.34

4.32

4.25

4.27

4.30

4.27

4.42

4.23

4.40

4.31

60 CM&StP(C&PWDv) lstMSs 1921

4.81

4.74

4.72

4.72

4.67

4.54

4.54

4.58

4.63

4.65

4.65

4.63

4.51

61 CM&StP(Wis&MinDv)lstM5sl92l

4.84

4.78

4.75

4.72

4.69

4.61

4.60

4.58

4.64

4.68

4.68

4.69

4.65

62 ChicSt Louis&NOrleans5s 1951

4.44

4.35

4..30

4.32

4.33

4.24

4.17

4.14

4.30

4.30

4.32

4.30

4.31

63

4.29

4.29

4.19

4,21

4.24

4.21

4.12

4.12

4.21

4.19

4.19

4.26

4.23

64 NewYorkLack&WestlstM6sl92l

4.43

4.37

4.32

4.36

4.39

4.34

4.29

4.28

4.42

4.43

4.42

4.48

4.50

65 Hannibal&StJosephconsM6sl9ll

4.77

4.69

4.65

4.63

4.61

4.55

4.52

4.63

4.50

4.55

4.58

4.69

4.61

66 NYCent&HudsonRiverDeb5sl904

4.40

4.34

4.31

4.31

4.31

4.36

4.28

4.29

4.38

4.31

4.35

4.41

4.41

67 Baltimore &Ohio5s 1925

4.56

4.48

4.44

4.49

4.49

4.40

4.39

4.39

4.43

4.47

4.49

4.54

4.52

68 Chic Milw&St Paul TerinM5s 1914

4.89

4.78

4.74

4.74

4.76

4.66

4.68

4.71

4.79

4.78

4.75

4.82

4.80

69 Chicago&NWRyDeb5s 1909

4.69

4.61

4.58

4.58

4.59

4.51

4.47

4.57

4.59

4.60

4.51

4.50

4.51

70 WestShoreRRlstM4s2Jól

3.90

3.90

3.93

3.94

3.95

3.92

3.88

3.92

3.97

3.98

3.91

3.91

3.90

Page 60: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 61: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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25Pi

ttsFt Wayne &ChiclstM 7s1912

4.39

4.30

4.30

4.28

4.32

4.33

4.27

4.23

4.19

4.24

4.22

4.24

4.19

30Morris&EssexlstMsf7sl9l4

4.41

4.52

4.38

4.36

4.37

4.35

4.28

4.34

4.35

4.34

4.24

4.23

4.19

38 ClevColCin&IndlstMsflsl899

4.80

4.74

4.72

4.69

4.66

4.59

4.51

4.60

4.68

4.66

4.63

4.57

4.54

39 Lehigh Valley RR 2ndMreg 7s 1910

4.58

4.32

4.30

4.38

4.30

4.30

4.39

4.33

4.31

4.30

4.32

4.32

4.29

40 Chic&NorWestRyconssf7sl9l5

4.48

4.42

4.41

4.43

4.45

4.41

4.35

4.35

4.36

4.31

4.28

4.35

4.24

41 LSh&MichSoconslstMsflsl900

4.30

4.40

4.47

4.46

4.40

4.31

4.33

4.14

4.19

4.22

4.20

4.17

4.10

42 PennsylvaniaRRCogenM6sl9lo

4.00

4.03

4.06

4.09

4.10

4.01

3.84

3.89

3.94

3.95

3.97

3.97

3.93

43New Vork&Harlem RRconsM7s 1900

4.11

3.94

4.01

4.08

4.05

4.02

3.82

3.79

3.78

3.74

3.76

.3.76

3.68

44 NYC&HRRR1stM7s19O3

4.01

3.99

4.06

4.11

4.10

4.02

3.95

3.89

3.94

3.91

3.88

3.89

3.84

45 ChicBurl&QuincyRRconsMlsl9o3

4.29

4.29

4.29

4.27

4.30

4.26

4.26

4.21

4.22

4.26

4.23

4.22

4.14

46 Cleveland&PittsconssfM7s 1900

4.41

4.51

4.51

4.43

4.34

4,28

4.22

4.22

4.23

4.22

4.06

4.23

4.09

47

4.49

4.41

4.49

4.51

4.44

4.36

4.21

4.27

4.32

4.21

4.16

4.02

4.01

49 ChicagoRkls&PacRRlstM6sl9l7....

4.14

4.10

4.15

4.21

4.18

4.18

4.20

4.19

4.19

4.17

4.16

4.12

4.05

50 Chicago&Nor WestconsM7s 1902

4.30

4.28

4,37

4.37

4.34

4.32

4.21

4.23

4.26

4.24

4.29

4.33

4.15

51 ChicStPaul&MinnlstM6sl9l8

,...

.4.

624.54

4.60

4.63

4.60

4.58

4.56

4.54

4.54

4.51

4.54

4.61

4.61

52 St Paul Minn&Man 2ndM6s 1909

4.81

4.80

4.81

4.80

4.74

4.66

4.63

4.66

4.67

4.70

4.74

4.59

4.66

53 Nash Chatt&StLlstM7s 1913

4.96

4.99

5.00

5.04

5.07

5.04

4.93

4.96

5.00

5.01

5.04

4.89

4.92

54 SrP&SiouxCityRRlstM6sl9l9

.4.

634.59

4.59

4.60

4.61

4.61

4.59

4.53

4.52

4.58

4.59

4.60

4.59

55 CM&StP(SoMinDv)lstM6sl9lO

5.08

5.05

5.13

5.22

5.19

5.30

5.21

5.10

5.29

5.36

5.29

5.28

5.19

56 CanadaSouthernRy lstMSs 1908

.4.

534.58

4.66

4.65

4.57

4.53

4.49

4.57

4.66

4.68

4.63

4.51

4.45

57 ChicStPMin&Oniaha consMós 1930

4.92

4.91

4.92

4.89

4.88

4.82

4.81

4.89

4.90

4.90

4.89

4.88

4.88

58 StPMin&Man(DakDv)lstM6sl9lO

4.79

4.69

4.65

4.71

4.85

4.85

4,81

4.82

4.84

4.33

4.75

4.70

4.72

59 Philadelphia& Erie genM5s 1920

4.45

4.39

4.36

4.39

4.37

4.18

4.18

4.24

4.33

4.31

4.30

4.34

4.30

60 CM&StP(C&PWDv)lstMSsl92l

4.84

4.77

4.82

4.83

4.82

4.82

4.74

4.65

4.76

4.87

4.84

4.85

4.75

61 CM&StP(Wis&MinDv)lstM5sl92l

4,99

4.95

4.98

4.95

4.97

5.07

4.97

4.92

.5.12

5.09

5.08

5.11

5.00

62 ChicStLouis&NOrleansSsl9Sl

....

.4.

274.24

4.31

4.24

4.24

4.27

4.24

4.22

4.24

4.30

4.29

4.29

4.28

63 PennsylvaniaCogu

1921

....

.4.

164.16

4.14

4.14

4.10

4.09

4.01

4.05

4.08

4.09

4.09

4.12

4.08

64 NewYorkLack&WestlstM6sI92l

....

4.44

4.36

4.38

4.38

4.37

4.32

4.24

4.23

4.28

4.31

4.32

4.31

4.21

65 }{annibal&St JosephconsM6s 1911

,,,,

.4.

754.69

4.66

4.71

4.70

4.75

4.71

4.71

4.71

4.77

4.70

4.68

4.61

66 NYCent&HudsonRiverDebssl9o4

....

.4.

384.31

4.29

4.22

4.22

4.21

4.18

4.19

4.12

4.13

4.15

4.17

4.17

67Baltiniore&0hio5s1925

4.60

4.56

4.68

4.68

4.63

4.62

4.57

4.53

4.58

4.68

4.61

4.61

4,59

68 ChicMilw&StPaulTermMSsl9l4

4.98

4.96

5.00

4.99

4.98

4.96

4.93

4.89

5.00

5.01

4.99

4.97

4.95

69Chicago&NWRyDeb5sl9O9

4.69

4.73

4.78

4.77

4.67

4.64

4.61

4.66

4.73

4.72

4.72

4.73

4.66

70 WestShoreRRIstM4s23ól

3.99

3.98

3.98

3.96

3.93

3.92

3.91

3.90

3.91

3.92

3.90

3.89

3.84

71 Chicago&NWRysfDebSsl933

4.61

4.62

4.65

4.57

4.58

4.60

4.51

4.48

4.48

4.53

4.55

4.54

4.54

72 Chicago& North Western ext 4s 1926

4.38

4.41

4.43

4.37

4.28

4.24

4.24

4.24

4.29

4.31

4.32

4.24

4.09

73 St Paul Minn&Man

1933

..

4.68

4.70

4.74

4.77

4.73

4.71

4.69

4.73

4.73

4.73

4.69

4.65

4.56

Page 62: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 63: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 64: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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JAN

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M7s

l9l2

4.14

4.13

4.18

4.20

4.21

4.25

4.26

425

4,26

4.26

4.31

4.26

4,22

30Morrjs&Essex!stMsf7sl9l4

4.28

4.28

4.41

4.32

4.30

4,49

4.53

458

4.55

4.49

4.46

4.41

4.26

39 Lehigh

Val

leyRR2ndMreg 7s 1910

4.48

4.40

4.48

4.61

4.66

4.63

4.66

4.62

4.60

4.39

4.37

4.42

4.31

40 Chic&Nor West.

Ry

cons

sf 7

s 191

54.47

4.50

4.49

4.47

4.55

4.67

4.10

4.70

4.69

4.60

4.50

4.41

4.37

42 Pennsylvania RR Co genM6s 1910

4.17

4.12

4.00

4.00

3.9.5

3.98

3.98

3.96

3.93

3.90

3.92

3.92

3.85

44 NYC&HRRR1stM7s19O3

4.11

4.22

4.29

4.31

4.38

4.44

4.35

4.41

4.44

4.45

4.37

4.34

4.26

45 Chic Burl&Quhicy RRconsM7s 1903

4.66

4.70

4.80

4.84

4.89

4.97

5.00

5.01

4.84

4.75

4.70

4.55

4.54

47 Michigan Central RR.consM7s 1902

4.57

4.60

4.67

4.61

4.70

4.87

4.89

4.90

4.87

4.66

4.63

4.54

4.44

49 ChicagoRkls&PacRRlstM6sl9ll

4.39

4.32

4.40

4.46

4.56

4.73

4.72

4.73

4.69

4.73

4.60

4.52

4.55

SO Chicago& Nor West consM7s 1902

4.28

4.25

4.35

4.44

4.56

4.59

4.56

4.57

4.65

4.57

4.43

4.48

4.30

51 ChicStPaul&MinnlstM6sl9l8

4.59

4.69

4.66

4.74

4.70

4.79

4.81

4.84

4.83

4.67

4.71

4.63

4.61

52 StPaulMinn&Man2ndM6sl9O9

4.87

4.79

4.86

4.82

4.87

4.79

4.81

4.87

4.90

4.84

4.84

4.80

4.77

53NashChàtt&StLlstM7sl9l3

5.08

5.11

5.17

5.15

5.18

5.20

5.17

5.20

5.20

5.19

5.19

4.95

4.92

54 StP&SiouxCityRRlstMóslOl9

4.62

4.62

4.67

4.70

4.74

4.80

4.79

4.80

4.79

4.62

4.67

4.67

4.63

55 CM&StP(SoMinDv)lstMósl9lO

5.08

5.00

5.10

5.12

5.15

5.16

5.07

4.99

5.00

4.99

4.90

4.81

4.84

56 Canada Southern Ry lstMSs 1908

4.52

4.49

4.54

4.58

4.67

4.76

4.72

4.70

4.67

4.56

4.52

4.52

4.48

57 ChicStpMin&Omaha consM6s 1930

5.02

5.06

5.11

5.09

5.09

5.14

5.05

5.05

5.11

5.02

5.00

4.92

4.86

58 StPMin&Man(DakDv)lstM6sl9lO

4.80

4.74

4.88

4.86

4.88

4.94

4.93

4.91

4.85

4.81

4.76

4.78

4.76

59 Philadelphia& Erie genM5s 1920

4.34

4.37

4.40

4.36

4.36

4.40

4.36

4.37

4.39

4.31

4.27

4.26

4.24

60CM&StP(C&PWDv)lstM5sl92t

4.68

4.69

4.76

4.72

4.73

4.76

4.73 .4.73

4.74

4.67

4.66

4.65

4.62

61 CM&StP(Wig&MinDv) lstM5s 1921

4.89

4.91

5.00

4.99

5.01

5.03

4.86

4.94

4.95

4.87

4.77

4.79

4.78

62 Chic St Louis&NOrleans Ss 1951

4.44

4.48

4.58

4.57

4.60

4.63

4.51

4.69

4.64

4.59

4.47

4.41

4.43

63 Pennsylvania Co gu

1921

4.18

4.20

4.25

4.29

4.32

4.34

4.32

4.33

4.26

4.26

4.16

4.15

4.15

64 NewYorkLack&WestlstM6sl92l

4.24

4.29

4.25

4.28

4.31

4.41

4.42

4.45

4.50

4.55

4.55

4.48

4.41

65 Hannibal&St JosephconsM6s 1911

4.95

4.91

5.07

5.00

5.05

5.12

5.14

5.09

5.01

4.99

4.91

4.79

4.76

66 NYCent&HudsonRiverDebSsl904

4.26

4.27

4.42

4.32

4.45

4.66

4.53

4.64

4.52

4.55

4.44

4.35. 4.27

67 Baltimore&Ohio5s 1925

4.62

4.62

4.65

4.82

4.81

4.94

4.87

4.78

4.68

4.73

4.71

4,66

4.65

68 Chic Milw&St Paul TermM5s 1914

4.88

4.96

5.01

4.93

4.96

5.04

4.97

4.93

4.95

4.81

4.74

4.74

4.74

69Chicago&NWRyDeb5sl909

4.69

4.68

4.71

4.75

4.79

4.85

4.90

4.87

4.77

4.80

4.82

4.70

4.67

70 West Shore RR 1st M 4s2361

3.95

3.92

3.94

3.94

3.96

3.99

4.01

4.00

3.95

3.99

3.98

3.95

3.90

71 Chicago&NWRysfDeb5sl933

4.66

4.59

4.72

4.72

4.85

4.91

4.90

4.86

4.86

4.83

4.61

4.69

4.71

72 Chicago & North Western ext 4s 1926

4.18

4.27

4.34

4.39

4.35

4.44

4.39

4.38

4.38

4.36

4.33

4.19

73

4.46

4.41

4.51

4.51

4.55

4.50

4.67

4.64

4.63

4.66

4.70

4.70

4.65

74 CinJndStL&Chigenlst4sl936

4.26

4.23

4.32

4.37

4.36

4.37

4.45

4.46

4.43

4.45

4.57

4.44

4.36

75 PacificRRofMolstextM4sl938

4.11

4.13

4.13

4.20

4.20

4.37

4.31

4.21

4.14

4.22

4.24

4.18

4.09

76 Illinois Central RR coil 4s 1952

4.22

4.25

4.23

4.29

4.29

4.29

4.30

4.31

4.32

4.29

4.31

4.25

4.18

77 LakeErie&WesternlstM5sl937

4.61

4.55

4.59

4.61

4.65

4.72

4.71

4.74

4.69

4.69

4.70

4.65

4.55

78 WabashRRColstM5sl939

5.08

5.02

5.08

5.05

5.13

5.16

5.14

5.07

5.05

5.00

4.96

4.90

4.85

79 Ches&O(East. Ext.) lstM6s 1911

.4.

844.80

4.82

4.90

4.87

4.97

5.27

.5.17

5.02

4.84

4.89

4.93

4.79

Page 65: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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OF

RA

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Sept

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25 P

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t M 7

s 191

24.20

4.24

4.25

4.27

4.25

4.17

4.10

4.13

4.18

4.19

4.22

4.20

30 M

orris

&Es

sexl

stM

sf7s

l9l4

4.26

4.27

4.28

4.30

4.22

4.18

4.17

4.21

4.21

4.27

4.28

4.29

4.29

39

Lehi

ghV

alie

yRR

2ndM

reg7

slcl

04.

314.

334.

344.

414.

334.

254.

254.

274.31

4.25

4.40

4.35

4.30

40 C

hic&

Nor

Wes

tRyc

onss

f7sl

9l5

4.31

4.44

4.44

4.33

4.30

4.35

4.35

4.37

4.41

4.38

4.41

4.40

4.48

42 P

enns

ylva

niaR

RC

ogen

M6s

l9l0

3.85

3.89

3.93

3.92

3.92

3.85

3.74

3.81

3.80

3.80

3.87

3.90

3.88

44NYC&HRRR lstM7s 1903

4.26

4.22

4.20

4.13

4.13

4.07

4.07

4.13

4.21

4.27

4.27

4.28

4.26

45 C

hicB

url&

Qui

ncyR

Rco

nsM

7sl9

034.

544,

514.

534.51

4.47

4.44

4.45

4.49

4.51

.4.50

4.50

4.57

4.59

49

Chi

cago

Rkl

s&Pa

cRR

lstM

6sl9

l74.

554.

504.

464.

424.

434.

434.

444.

444.

514.52

4.50

4.51

4.49

52 S

tpau

lMin

n&M

an2n

dMós

190

94.

774.

654.

684.

634.

604.

584.

544.

624.

684.

674.

604.

664.

6353

Nas

hCha

tt&St

Llst

M7s

l9l3

4.92

4.90

4.99

4.99

4.97

4.86

4.81

4.86

4.98

4.99

5.03

5.00

4.88

54 S

tP&

Siou

xCily

RR

istM

6sl9

l94.

634.

624.

624.

554.

554.

584.

504.

584.

614.

594.

564.54

4.54

55 C

M&

StP(

SoM

inD

v)ls

tM6s

l9lO

4.84

4.76

4.69

4.70

4.72

4.74

4.69

4.59

4.71

4.75

4.70

4.81

4.80

56 C

anad

a So

uthe

rn R

y ls

tMSs

190

84.

484.

414.

434.

464.

444.

374.

464.

524.

564.

584.

594.

564.

5057

Chi

cStP

Min

&O

mah

acon

sMós

l930

4.86

4.89

4.89

4.82

4.78

4.80

4.82

4.83

4.86

4.88

4.87

4.87

4.84

58 S

tPM

inn&

Man

(Dak

Dv)

lstM

6sl9

lO4.

764.

694.

684.

714.

664.

604.

574.

584.

674.

624.

644.

644.

66

59Philadelphia& Erie genM5s 1920

4.24

4.24

4.39

4.29

4.25

4.27

4.17

4.18

4.29

4.18

4.18

4.17

4.15

60 C

M&

StP(

C&

PWD

v)ls

tM5s

l92l

4.62

4.59

4.59

4.56

4.47

4.48

4.47

4.42

4.49

4.48

4.49

4.50

4.44

61

CM

&St

P(W

is&

Min

Dv)

lstM

5sl9

2l4.

784.

714.

724.

694.

644.

654.

644.

584.

624.

664.

704.

704.

6962

Chi

c St

Lou

is&

N O

rlean

s Ss 1

951

4.43

4.41

4.38

4.36

4.32

4.30

4.31

4.27

4.28

4.29

4.31

4.33

4.28

Z63

Penn

syLv

ania

Cog

u19

214.

154.

214.

154.

154.

134.

114.

124.

124.

154.

174.

134.

144.

13

644.

414.

374.36

4.38

4.38

4.36

4.28

4.22

4.35

4.31

4.32

4.32

4.23

65 H

anni

bal&

StJo

seph

con

sMós

191

14.

764.

754.

744.

774.

674.

724.

734.

734.

824.

844.

814.

784.

81k

66N

YC

ent&

Hud

sonR

iver

Deb

5sl9

044.

274.

264.

234.

214.

224.

214.23

4.23

4.25

4.36

4.35

4.39

4.33

67 B

altim

ore&

Ohi

o5s 1

925

4.65

4.59

4.53

4.43

4.48

4.45

4.40

4.43

4.40

4.39

4.42

4.41

4.41

68 C

hicM

ilw&

StPa

ulTe

rmM

Ssl9

l44.

744.

724.

654.

614.

614.

604.

524.

434.

524.

524.

554.

654.

58

69Chicago&NWRy.Deb5s1909

4.67

4.69

4.61

4.66

4.67

4.65

4.55

4.64

4.70

4.69

4.67

4.75

4.67

70 W

estS

hore

RR

lstM

4s2

361

3.90

3.89

3.90

3.90

3.87

3.86

3.89

3.89

3.92

3.93

3.91

3.92

3.94

71 C

hica

go&

NW

Rys

fDeb

5sl9

334.

714.

714.

784.

774.

694.

634.

634.

584.

664.

604.55

4.61

4.63

72 C

hica

go&

Nor

thW

este

rnex

t4sl

926

4.19

4.12

4.14

4.13

4.11

4.10

4.15

4.14

4.20

4.19

4.19

4,24

4.24

73St Paul

1933

4.65

4.61

4.59

4.47

4.50

4.49

4.48

4.48

4.50

4.53

4.51

4.51

4.50

74 CinlndStL&Chigenlst4sl936

4.36

4.24

4.27

4.26

4.25

4.28

4.28

4.30

4.29

4.26

4.29

4.31

4.32

75 PacificRRof Mo tsr extM4s 1938

4.09

4.09

4.14

4.14

4.12

4.11

4.14

4.16

4.14

4.15

4.21

4.20

4.02

76 Illinois Central RR coil 4s

1952

4.18

4.03

4.04

4.02

3.99

4.01

3.94

3.91

3.98

3.99

3.99

4.00

4.00

77 LakeErie&WesternlstM5sl937

4.55

4.50

4.51

4.50

4.45

4.42

4.46

4.47

4.53

4.51

4.52

4.56

4.49

78Wabash RR Co lstMSs 1939

4.85

4.80

4.84

4.79

4.74

4.74

4.74

4.79

4.85

4.82

4.82

4.87

4.86

79 Ches&O(EastExt) lstM6s 1911

4.79

4.69

4.75

4.78

4.73

4.72

4.72

4.76

4.68

4.68

4.73

4.74

4.77

80Ronie Water&OgdensconsM5s 1922

4.30

4.27

4.28

4.29

4.28

4.27

4.28

4.25

4.32

4.27

4.29

4.32

4.28

81NYChic&StLouis lstM4s 1937

4.25

4.18

4.20

4.19

4.1'l

4.08

4.15

4.19

4.19

4.17

4.19

4.17

4.19

82 Ches&OhioRylstconsSsl939

4.80

4.84

4.86

4.81

4.78

4.80

4.83

4.86

4.89

4.88

4.89

4.95

4.88

Page 66: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 67: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

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RA

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JAN

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Feb.

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44.22

4.19

4.16

4.19

4.03

4.07

3.98

4.02

4.07

3.80

3.84

3.87

3.90

39 Lehigh Valley RR 2ndMreg is 1910

4.46

4.39

4.32

4.30

4.32

4.35

4.43

4.34

4.29

4:28

4.18

4.15

4.12

40 Chic&NorWestRyconssf7sl9l5

4.31

4.21

4.20

4.20

4.35

4.16

4.15

4.11

4.12

4.09

3.83

3.98

3.99

42 Pennsylvania RR Co genM6s 1910

3.63

3.67

3.73

3.63

3.54

3.55

3.57

3.56

3.47

3.48

3.44

3.44

3.44

49 ChicagoRkls&PacRRlstMosl9li

4.38

4.28

4.25

4.25

4.30

4.30

4.26

4.23

4.19

4.21

4.12

4.10

4.18

52 StPaulMinn&Man2ndM6sl9O9

4.63

4.59

4.45

4.39

4.45

4.48

4.54

4.56

4.48

4.41

4.37

4.40

4.45

53 Nash Chatt&StLlstM7s 1913

4.93

4.91

4.92

4.88

4.80

4.80

4.82

4.80

4.68

4.56

4.48

4.43

4.45

54 StP&SioiixCityRRlstMôsl9l9

4.44

4.42

4.38

4.28

4.35

4.32

4.30

4.34

4.43

4.22

4.15

4.17

4.20

55CM &

StP (So Mm Dv) 1st M ós 1910

4.88

4.81

4.69

4.65

4.71

4.68

4.71

4.73

4.78

4.60

4.54

4.55

4.47

56 CanadaSouthern.Ry lstMSs 1908

4.36

4.21

4.20

4.19

4.28

4.18

4.18

4.13

4.11

4.08

4.05

3.95

4.02

57

Chi

cStP

Min

&O

mah

acon

sM6s

1930

4.82

4.71

4.70

4.65

4.61

4.61

4.61

4.62

4.65

4.51

4.50

4.51

4.61

58 StPMin&Man(DakDv) lstM6s1910

4.76

4.71

4.53

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.53

4.55

4.57

4.54

4.44

4.47

4.44

59

1920

4.24

4.21

4.21

4.07

4.07

4.15

4.16

4.09

4.03

3.95

3.92

3.91

60 C M & St P (C & P W Dv) 1st M 5s 1921

4.52

4.50

4.45

4.41

4.42

4.44

4.47

4.47

4.42

4.38

4.34

4.30

4.31

61

CM

&St

P(W

is&

Min

Dv)

lstM

Ss 1

921

4.72

4.58

4.56

4.60

4.56

4.63

4.66

4.58

4.53

4.53

4.52

4.53

4.49

62 ChicStLouis&NQrleans5sl9Sl

4.48

4.47

4.47

4.45

4.28

4.28

4.37

4.33

4.31

4.28

4.29

4.31

4.26

63 Pennsylvania Co gu 1st M

1921

4.13

4.11

4.01

3.88

3.82

3.87

3.90

3.89

3.89

3.92

3.94

3.90

3.90

64 NewYorkLack&WestlstMósl92l

4.27

4.22

4.16'

4.13

4.11

4.06

4.09

4.02

4.02

4.01

4.01

3.98

3.97

65 Hannibal&StJosephconsM6sl9ll

4.81

4.67

4.63

4.58

4.54

4.53

4.54

4.51

4.46

4.42

4.42

4.41

4.44

67 Baltimore&0hio5s1925

4.33

4.36

4.37

4.35

4.40

4.39

4.42

4.41

4.30

4.36

4.38

4.35

4.39

68ChicMilw&St Paul ThrmM5s 1914

4.56

4.48

4.46

4.46

4.49

4.48

4.53

4.47

4.33

4.34

4.31

4.36

4.32

69 Chicago&NWRyDeb5s 1909

4.55

4.58

4.56

4.42

4.51

4.51

4.57

4.57

4.55

4.53

4.55

4.50

4.42

70 West Shore RR lstM4s 2361

3.95

3.90

3.88

3.84

3.88

3.88

3.88

3.87

3.86

3.84

3.82

3.83

3.83

71 Chicago&NWRysfDeb5sl933

4.64

4.55

4.49

4.47

4.52

4.44

4.45

4.50

4.50

4.48

4.47

4.61

4.60

72 Chicago&

Nor

thWestern ext 4s 1926

4.26

4.15

4.08

4.05

4.12

4.16

4.21

4.05

3.99

3.93

3.90

3.93

4.09

73

4.60

4.59

4.55

4.51

4.53

4.52

4.51

4.50

4.49

4.50

4.49

4.49

4.43

74 CinlndStL&Chigenlst4slg36

4.52

4.57

4.51

4.44

4.37

4.44

4.38

4.29

4.28

4.29

4.31

4.28

4.27

75 Pacific RRof Mo 1st extM4s 1938

4.23

4.08

4.03

4.04

4.10

4.14

4.11

4.06

4.02

4.00

3.95

3.92

76 Illinois Central RR cell 4s

1952

4.08

4.04

3.99

3.93

3.99

3.97

3.99

3.97

3.95

4.01

3.97

3.96

3.96

77 LakeErie&WesternlstM5sl937

4.45

4.34

4.33

4.34

4.34

4.35

4.31

4.30

4.35

4.29

4.39

4.33

4.32

78 WabashRRColstM5sl939

4.90

4.87

4.82

4.76

4.78

4.84

4.94

4.88

4.81

4.81

4.77

4.78

4.78

79 Ches&Co (East Ext) lstM6s 1911

4.78

4.68

4.59

4.47

4.55

4.60

4.60

4.60

4.54

4.45

4.39

4.39

4.47

80 Rome Water &Ogdens consM5s 1922

4.24

4.21

4.23

4.12

4.07

4.11

4.08

4.10

4.07

4.04

4.02

3.99

4.00

81 NYChic&StLouislstM4sl937

4.17

4.12

4.09

4.04

4.04

4.03

4.06

4.02

4.00

3.97

3.94

3.94

3.89

82 Ches&OhioRylstcons5sl939

4.92

4.83

4.81

4.79

4.78

4.80

4.82

4.74

4.62

4.65

4.61

4.63

4.69

83

Ill Central (LNO&T) col4s 1953

4.24

4.27

4.17

4.11

4.07

4.12

4.13

4.10

4.08

4.06

4.07

4.08

4.12

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3.72

3.72

3.72

3.64

3.57

3.60

3.69

3.59

3.63

3.63

3.61

3.62

39Lehigh

Val

leyRR2ndMreg 7s 1910

4.21

4.45

4.06

4.13

4.17

4.18

3.93

3.83

3.75

3.70

3.84

3.87

3.89

40 Chic&NorWestRyconssf7sl9l5

3.96

3.89

3.85

3.72

3.67

3.57

3.55

3.65

3.69

3.65

3.66

3.63

3.63

42 PennsylvaniaRRCogenM6sl9l0

3.21.

3.28

3.19

3.23

3.22

3.18

3.18

3.17

3.08

3.12

3.12

3.10

3.12

49 ChicagoRkls&PacRRistM6sl9l7

3.97

3.94

3.90

3.84

3.87

3.77

3.75

3.74

3.74

3.77

3.81

3.72

3.72

53

Nash Chatt&StLlstM7s 1913

4.59

4.56

4.50

4.62

4.55

4.46

4.35

4.41

4.47

4.44

4.35

4.30

4.29

54 StP&SiouxCityRRlstMós 1919

4.03

4.02

4.01

3.98

3.94

3.94

3.95

3.97

4.02

4.02

3.99

3.89

3.87

56 CanadaSouthernRylstM5sl908

4.00

3.89

3.98

3.98

3.98

3.81

3.78

3.85

3.95

4.01

3.96

3.77

3.78

57 ChicStPMin&Omaha consM6s 1930

4.40

4.38

435

4.38

4.32

4.22

4.22

4.26

4.30

4.25

4.15

4.07

3.99

59 Philadelphia& Erie genM5s 1920

3.88

3.89

3.94

3.91

3.91

3.88

3.85

3.87

3.86

3.88

3.82

3.85

3.77

60 CM&StP(C&PWDv) lstMSs 1921

4.19

4.15

4.13

4.08

4.07

4.02

3.96

4.04

4.07

4.07

4.03

3.97

3.93

61 CM&StP(Wis&MinDv)lstM5sl92l

4.32

4.29

4,23

4.21

4.20

4.20

4.21

4.21

4.20

4.17

4.11

4.10

4.05

62 ChicStLouis&NOrleans5s 1951

4.13

4.07

4.04

4.05

4.05

4.01

3.96

4.00

4.02

4.05

4.03

3.98

3.97

633.85

3.86

3.86

3.82

3.80

3.92

3.77

3.76

3.75

3.71

3.71

3.67

3.65

64 NewYorkLack&West lstM6s 1921

3.91

3.83

3.76

3.75

3.73

3.65

3.58

3.57

3.61

3.64

3.61

3.55

3.54

65 Hannibal&StJosephconsM6sl9tl

4.35

4.35

4.30

4.14

4.15

4.16

4.09

4.16

4.17

4.17

4.06

4.01

3.99

68 ChicMilw&StPaulTermMSsl9l4

4.15

4.09

4.11

4.04

4.02

4.00

3.99

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

3.94

3.85

69 Chicago&NWRyDeb5sl9O9

4.42

4.42

4.36

4.25

4.21

4.09

4.12

4.13

4.12

4.20

4.11

4.01

4.02

70 WestShoreRRlstM4s23ól

3.78

3.75

3.78

3.73

3.73

3.71

3.66

3.71

3.73

3.73

3.67

3.65

3.67

71 Chicago&NWRysfDeb5sl933

4.43

4.42

4.42

4.37

4.26

4.15

4.13

4.14

4.17

4.20

4.17

4.12

4.11

72 Chicago&NorthWesternext4s 1926

3.98

3.87

3.86

3.85

.3.83

3.83

3.78

3.79

3.74

3.77

3.75

3.73

3.71

734.

364.34

4.24

4.24

4.24

4.23

4.22

4.21

4.23

4.22

4.22

4.18

4.14

74 CinIndStL&Chigenlst4sl936

4.17

4.02

3.99

3.98

3.97

3.97

3.99

4.00

3.99

3.99

4.00

3.94

3.92

75 PadflcRRofMolstextM4sl938

4.07

3.94

3.98

4.02

4.04

4.00

3.94

3.96

3.98

4.00

3.97

3.88

3.82

76 Illinois Central RRcolI4s 1952

3.96

3.90

3.89

3.93

3.94

3.95

3.89

3.89

3.93

3.89

.3.94

3.88

3.92

77LakeErie&WesternlstMSsl937

4.26

4.27

4.25

4.23

4.26

4.21

4.21

4.22

4.21

4.24

4.21

4.20

4.17

78 WabashRRColstM5sl939

4.69

4.70

4.79

4.89

4.90

4.86

4.78

4.72

4.72

4.70

4.71

4.66

4.61

79 Ches&O(EastExt)lstM6sl9ll

4.34

4.29

4.24

4.11

4.11

4.13

4.04

4.24

4.24

4.23

4.22

4.21

4.15

80 Rome Water&OgdensconsM5s 1922

3.92

3.86

3.87

3.83

3.83

3.76

3.78

3.83

3.85

3.81

3.82

3.76

3.70

81 NYChic&StLouislstM4sl937

3.82

3.81

3.80

3.80

3.79

3.80

3.78

3.77

3.75

3.81

3.77

3.71

3.71

82 Ches&OhioRylstcons5sl939

4.58

4.54

4.54

4.51

4.50

4.47

4.49

4.48

4.45

4.48

4.42

4.35

4.29

83 lllCentral(LNO&T)co14s1953

3.97

4.00

4.00

4.05

3.93

3.95

3.97

3.97

4.00

4.03

4.03

3.95

3.96

84 C&O(R&ADv)lstconsM4sl9S9

4.05

4.00

3.93

3.97

3.97

3.95

3.87

3.93

3.96

3.99

3.98

3.85

3.83

85 CCC&StL(StLDv)lstcol4sl99O

4.35

4.36

4.28

4.25

4.23

4.23

4.27

4.25

4.38

4.25

4.26

4.23

4.17

86 ETennV&GRyconslstMSsl9S6

4.66

4.65

4.65

4.64

4.63

4.61

4.57

4.53

4.58

4.58

4.57

4.55

4.54

87 ChicMilw&StPanlgenM4sl989

4.11

4.07

3.99

3.99

4.00

3.96

3.91

3.91

3.92

3.90

3.87

3.84

3.81

Page 71: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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743.

873.

903.

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773.

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3.45

3.41

39 Lehigh Valley RR2ndMreg is 1910

3.89

3.75

4.01

4.14

4.31

4.05

4.07

4.07

4.07

3.92

3.97

3.91

3.82

40 Chic&NorWestRyconssf7sl9l5

3.63

3.64

3.76

3.75

3.87

3.85

3.70

3.61

3.65

3.63

3.59

3.46

3.50

42 PennsylvaniaRRCogenM6sl9lO

3.12

3.07

3.10

3.24

3.26

3.24

2.97

3.08

3.16

3.17

3.17

3.12

3.04

49 Chicago Rk Is & Pac RR 1st M 6s 1917

3.72

3.75

3.85

378

3.87

3.83

3.80

3.74

3.78

3.75

3.76

3.65

3.63

53 NashChatt&StLIStM7S1913

4.29

4.28

4.40

4.61

4.46

4.42

4.41

4.33

4.36

4.28

4.22

4.24

4.06

54 StP&SiouxCityRRlstM6sl9l9

3.87

3.90

4.00

4.11

4.04

3.94

3.90

3.89

3.89

3.83

3.81

3.78

3.72

57 ChicStPMin&Omaha consM6s 1930

3.99

4.01

4.17

4.54

4.20

4.10

4.02

4.03

4.10

4.11

4.08

4.05

4.03

59 Philadelphia & Erie gen M 5s 1920

3.77

3.77

3.79

3.82

3.84

3.80

3.79

3.82

3.84

3.82

3.82

3.78

3.79

60 CM&StP(C&PWDv)1stM3S1921

3.93

3.93

4.02

4.21

4.13

4.01

3.96

3.91

3.91

3.91

3.89

3.77

3.65

61 CM&StP(Wis&MinDv) lstMSs 1921

4.05

4.05

4.18

4.31

4.28

4.21

4.16

4.12

4.12

4.04

3.92

3.87

3.82

62Chic St Louis & N Orleans 5s

1951

3.97

3.98

4.11

4.31

4.22

4.09

4.03

3.99

3.98

3.98

3.96

3.97

3.97

633.65

3.70

3.82

3.99

3.96

3.80

3.68

3.69

3.70

3.66

3.61

3.61

3.44

64 New

Yor

kLack &West lstM6s 1921

3.54

3.60

3.62

3.64

3.65

3.62

3.62

3.61

3.64

3.63

3.60

3.57

3.53

65Hannibal&StJosephcOflSM6Sl9ll

3.99

4.01

4.05

4.12

4.06

4.14

4.04

3.95

3.98

3.97

3.94

.3.91

3.86

68

Chic Milw & St Paul Term M 591914

3.85

3.81

3.83

4.11

4.06

4.01

3.98

3.95

3.95

3.94

3.99

3.86

3.78

69Chicago&NWRY Deb5s 1909

4.02

4.05

4.26

4.34

4.14

4.09

4.11

4.10

4.12

4.10

4.00

3.93

3.98

Z70

West Shore RR lstM4s 2361

3.67

3.66

3.71

3.84

3.78

3.72

3.69

3.67

3.68

3.67

3.64

3.61

3.59

71 Chicago&NWRYSfDeb5S1933

4.11

4.12

4.16

4.29

4.21

4.15

4.09

4.05

4.06

4.03

3.98

3.93

3.87

72 Chicago&NorthWesterneXt4Sl926

3.71

3.72

3.79

3.86

3.81

3.79

3.75

3.73

3.74

3.71

3.72

3.73

3.72

7.3 StpaulMinn&ManconsM4.4s1933

4.14

4.09

4.15

4.27

4.27

4.20

4.11

4.07

4.08

4.02

3.91

3.88

3.83

75 Pacific RR of Mo 1st extM4s 1938

3.82

3.82

3.92

3.89

3.98

3.89

3,90

3.82

3,82

3.79

3.76

3.80

3.72

76 Illinois Central RRcoll4s 1952

3.92

3.98

3.96

3.94

3.98

3.93

3.91

3.89

3.90

3.90

3.89

3.84

3.78

77 Lake Erie&Western lstM5s 1937

4.17

4.17

4.21

4.31

4.29

4.23

4.20

4.18

4.20

4.21

4.19

4.13

4.11

78 Wabash

RR

Co lstM5s 1939

4.61

4.59

4.76

4.76

4.64

4.53

4.51

4.46

4.48

4.44

4.39

4.38

4.31

79 Ches&O(EastExt)1stM6S191I

4.15

4.19

4.30

4.31

4.17

4.38

4.14

4.12

4.13

4.06

4.08

4.05

4.02

80RomeWater&OgdensConSMSSl922

3.70

3.72

3.80

3.85

3.77

3.70

3.63

3.59

3.57

3.41

3.27

3.25

3.20

81 NYChIc&St Louis lstM4s 1937

3.71

3.75

3.88

3.96

3.85

3.82

3.78

3.76

3.77

3.77

3.75

3.73

3.71

82 Ches&OhioRylStCOflS5Sl939

4.29

4.26

4.37

4.43

4.37

4.30

4.29

4.27

4.30

4.29

4.19

4.17

4.13

83

111 Central (LNO&T) Co1 4s 1953

3.96

3.96

4.03

4.15

4.04

3.99

3.96

3.97

3.99

3.98

3.95

3.92

3.88

84 C&O(R&ADv) lstconsM4s 1989

3.83

3.84

3.89

3.96

3.98

3.89

3.89

3.84

3.94

3.88

3.82

3.82

3.80

85 CCC&StL(StLDv)1stc014s1990

4.17

4.14

4.21

4.30

4.37

4.27

4.21

4.06

4.09

4.09

4.09

4.07

3.97

86 ETennV&GRY cons

1956

4.54

4.54

4.62

4.70

4.60

4.57

4.57

4.48

4.46

4.43

4.41

4.34

4.32

87 ChicMilw&StPaiilgeflM4s1989

3.81.

3.77

3.82

3.90

3.94

3.87

3.81

3.78

3.82

3.82

3.78

3.75

3.62

88 LakeSh&MichSolstM3Y2Sl997

3.32

3.31

3.38

3.47

3.41

3.35

3.37

3.34

3.32

3.32

3.31

3.29

3.28

Page 72: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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4.06

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114 Pennsylvania RRconsM4s 1948

3.90

3.90

3.95

4.00

4.03

4.03

4.02

4.02

4.00

4.01

4.07

4.06

4.01

115 KansasCitySoRylstM3sl95o

4.60

4.61

4.69

4.75

4.80

4.80

4.73

4.73

4.71

4.78

4.89

4.86

4.85

116 L&N(AtlKnox&CinDiv)4s1955

4.43

4.40

4.45

4.58

4.61

4.62

4.67

4.58

4.63

4.67

4.70

4.66

4.60

117

JllinoisCentralRRrefM4sl955

4.24

4,22

4,31

4.39

4.50

4.50

4.58

4.52

4.43

4.50

4.58

4.57

4.45

118

Chic Burl&QuincygenM4s 1958

4.22

4.23

4.29

4.36

4.38

4.37

4.42

4.36

4.33

4.36

4.47

4.50

4.38

119 SouthernRylstconsM5sl994

4.68

4.71

4.76

4.78

4.81

4.88

4.90

4.86

4.81

4.83

4.85

4.87

4.82

120 UnPacRRlstlien&refM4s2008

4.20

4.25

4.32

4.34

4.40

4.45

4.36

4.33

4.32

4.34

4.39

4.45

4.34

121

AtlCoastLine(L&Ncoll)4s1952

4.45

4.51

4.54

4.59

4.66

4.72

4.67

4.65

4.59

4.64

4.67

4.75

4.49

122 Norf&West(PC&C)Joint4s 1941

4.52k

4.56

4.74

4.72

4.78

5.01

5.01

4.92

4.84

4.80

4.79

4.75

4.66

123

Nnr

PvM

1061

.4

427

4.33

4.36

4.35

4.36

4.35

437

4.34

433

432

4.23

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YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

JAN

. 191

4—JA

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915

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ame

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Jan.

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.A

pril

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Aug

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pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

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.Ja

n.70

WestShoreRR1stM4s236l

4.34

4.26

4.30

4.27

4.29

4.28

4.30

4,49

4.41

76 Illinois Central RRcoll4s 1952

4.55

4.40

4.52

4.53

4.54

4.54

4.64

4.86

4.77

78WabashRRColstMSsl939

4.80

4.69

4.74

4.74

4.75

4.75

4.80

5.15

5.11

81 NYChic&StLouislstM4sl93l

4.34

4.23

4.26

4.31

4.35

4.36

4.40

4.49

4.50

82 Ches&OhioRylstcons5sl939

4.61

4;49

4.58

4.53

4.54

4.52

4.55

4.85

4.76

83 fllCentral(LNO&T)co14s1953

4.52

4.49

4.55

4.61

4.67

4.58

4.67

4.80

4.80

86 E Tenn V & G Ry cons 1st M 5s 1956

4.66

4.60

4.59

4.57

4.59

4.56

4.58

4 82

4.80

87 ChicMilw&St Paul genM4s 1989

4.29

4.18

4.25

4.24

4.24

4.19

4.19

.4.

434.

4888

4.09

4.17

4.14

4.10

4.06

4.04

4.15

4.26

4.22

90Balumore&OhioRRlstM4sl948

4.40

4.27

4.34

4.32

4.34

4.35

4.40

4.68

4.56

:91 Union PacRR.IstMRR&1g4s1947

4.19

4.16

4.16

4.17

4.17

4.15

4.13

4,29

4.23

92

WestgenM334s 1987

4.31

4.23

4.26

4.29

4.27

4.25

4.30

4.49

4.43.

93 Chi Rock Is & Pac Ry gen M 43 1988

4.68

4.60

4.59

4.60

4.61

4.54

4.75

4.94

4.86

94 AtchTop&SantaFegenM4sl995

4.24

4.20

4.20

4.18

4.18

4.19

4.28

4.39

4.28

95 NYCent&HudsonRjverM3Hsl99l

4.24

4.24

4.29

4.26

4.24

4.24

4.34

4.45

4.39

97.

4.46

4.42, 4.41

4.43

4.42

4..42

4.42

4.56

4.51

98 Louisvijle&Nashunified4sl94O

4.38

4.33

4.35

4.30

4.31

4.28

4.35

4.57

4.41

99 Oregon RR&Nav CoconsM4s 1946

4.44

4.37

4.45

4.41

4.39

4.41

4.42

4.57

4.56

100 Chi

1949

4.43

4.35

4.41

4.34

4.29

4.29

4.39

4.64

4.55

101 CentralPacificlstrefM4sl949

4.41

4.35

4.40

4.35

4.35

4.33

4.47

4.83

4.70

102 NorPacRypriorlienlgM4sl997

4.29

4.23

4.24

4.22

4.23

4.23

4.30

4.53

4.43

103 Norf&WestRylstconsM4sl99ó

4.22

4.23

4.25

4.21

4.23

4.20

4.21

4.34

4.31

104 Central RRofNJgenMSs 1987

4.32

4.26

4.26

4.23

4.23

4.23

4.25

.

4.42

4.37

105 HockingValleylstconsM43.4s1999

4.55

4.49

4.50

4.51

4.53

4.49

4.51

4.79

4.78

106 N&WRyDivlstl&genM4sl944

4.63

4.54

4.58

4.59

4.60

4.58

4.56

4.83

4.76

107 Ore Sb LIneRR.cons lstMSs 1946

4.60

4.53

4.54

4.55

4.53

4.56

4.58

4.82

4,75

108 SouthernPaclstrefMsf4sl955

4.48

4.39

4.40

4.41

4.40

4.40

4.51

4.87

4.75

109 AT&SFeRyadjM4sstampedl995

4.65

4.56

4.61

4.58

4.60

4.58

4.63

4.88

4.76

110 Northern Pàc Rygen lien 3s 2047

4.56

4.45

4.43

4.46

4.47

4.43

4.51

4.78

4.73

111 AtlCoastLinelstconsM4sl9s2

4.39

4,34

4.35

4.31

4.30

4,34

4.39

4.79

4,57

112 Del&HudsonColst&refM4sl943

4.34

4.22

4.26

4.26

4.20

4.16

4.23

4.57

4.31

113 Centralof Georgia consMSs 1945

4.81

4.74

4.75

4.77

4.76

4.72

4.74

4.98

4.89

114 PennsylvaniaRRconsM4sl948

4.01

3.98

3.91

3.93

3.90

3.96

4.00

.

.4.

124.12

115 KansaèCitySoRyIstM3sl95O

4.85

4.76

4.78

4.79

4.77

4.81

4.79

4.74

4.94

116 L&N(AtlKnox&CinDiv)4s1955

4.60

4.54

4.52

4.52

4.51

4.51

4.51

4.85

4.74

117 [llinoisCentnlRRrefM4sl955

4.45

4.34

4.32

4.35

4.40

4.40

4.45

4.79

4.76

118

4,38

4.33

4.31

4.35

4.35

4.34

4.39

4.56

4.49

119 SouthernRylstconsM5sl994

4.82

4.74

4.73

4.75

4.75

4.76

4.82

5.07

5.01

.120 UnPacRRlstlien&refM4s2008

4.34

4.27

4.27

4.27

4.26

4.23

4.25

4.52

4.48

121 AtlCoastLine(L&Ncoll).4s1952

4.,49

4.34

4.38

4.50

4.53

4.50

4.56

4.85

4.80

122 Norf&West(PC&C)Joint4sl94l

4.66

4.68

4.70

4.78

4.82

4.74

4.73

.4.

814.67

123 GrtNorRylst&refM434s1961

4.23

4.22

4.24

4.24

4.23

4.22

4.21

4.27

4.24

124 canadasolst&Tefconsssl9o2

4.74

4.66

4.67

4.66

4.65

4.654,67

4.89

4.88

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610

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106

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Page 89: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 91: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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195

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5.40

5.40

5.64

5.49

5.47

5.42

5.46

5.54

5.44

5.18

5.28

5.38

78 Wabash RRCo lstM5s 1939

5.46

5.43

5.51

5.57

5.49

5.46

5.65

5.71

5.76

5.53

5.28

5.31

5.20

82 Ches&OhioRylstcons5sl939

.5.18

5.12

5.26

5.34

5.27

5.25

5.33

5.41

5.38

5.31

5.10

4.99

5.09

83

III

Cen

tral (

LNO

&T)

col

4s 1

953

5.69

5.59

5.57

5.65

5.62

5.66

5.83

5.71

5.82

5.65

5.30

5.30

5.54

ETennV&GRyconslstM5s 1956

5.31

5.18

5.15

.5.34

5.34

5.52

5,49

5.50

5.50

5.51

5.34

5.30

5.30

88

4.74

4.84

4.82

4.92

4.84

4.84

4.84

4.95

4.96

4.94

4.84

4.65

4.84

91 UnionPacRRJstMRR&1g4s1947

4.76

4.81

4.86

4.87

4.77

4.94

4.98

4.90

4.91

4.87

4.69

4.75

4.78

92 Chicago&NorWestgenM334s 1987

4.94

4.89

5.00

5.07

5.00

5.05

5.08

5.25

5.23

5.15

4.83

4.83

5.00

93 ChiRockls&PacRygenM4sl988

5.36

5.23

5.37

5.39

5.35

5.44

5.45

5.36

5.54

5.40

4.97

5.03

5.22

94 AtchTop&SantaFegen '14s

1995

4.78

4.79

4.93

4.98

4.94

4.98

4.97

4.96

5.03

4.85

4.62

4.71

4.76

95 NYCent&Hudson

1997

4.86

4.90

4.93

5,01

5.00

5,04

4.99

5.02

5.06

4.95

4.68

4.81

4.91

98 Louisville&Nashunified4sf940

5.00

4.96

5.19

5.23

4.98

5.11

5.26

5.25

5.35

5.22

4.95

4.92

5.04

99 Oregon RR&NavCoconsM4s 1946

5.32

5.20

5.39

5.40

5.39

5.40

5.53

5.51

5.49

5.43

5.09

4.97

4.91

100

Chi

1949

5.22

5.16

5.19

5.22

5.13

5.24

5.36

5.33

5.33

5.25

4.92

4.86

5.09

101 Central Pacific lstrefM4s 1949

5.31

5.25

5.30

5.41

5.25

5.33

5.46

3.48

.5.61

5.38

4.96

5.09

5.22

.102 Nor Pac Rypriorlien lgM4s 1997

4.81

4.85

5.01

5.04

4.99

5.01

5.00

5.00

5.02

4.90

4.65

4.69

4.76

103 Norf&WestRylstconsM4sl996

4.78

4.78

4.89

4.87

4.85

5.01

4.95

5.01

5.04

4.88

4.58

4.63

4.79

104 CentralRRofNJgenMSsl98l

4.87

4.82

4.82

4.82

4.92

4.92

4.95

4.96

4.92

4.92

4.65

4.82

4.82

105 Hocking Valley

1999

5.90

5.89

5.90

5.96

3.96

.5.96

5.90

6.00

.5.98

5.86

5.37

5.36

5.37

106N&WRyDivlstl&genM4sl944

5.95

5.83

5.77

5.80

5.64

5.60

6.11

5.78

5.70

5.59

5.06

5.04

5.29

107

OreShLineRRconslstM5sl946

5.27

5.24

5.37

5.33

5.23

5.27

5.29

5,32

5.39

5.28

5.21

5.0.

55.

1110

8Southern Pac lstrefMsf 4s 1955

.5.

175.10

5.32

5.42

5.28

5.33

5.38

.5.44

5.49

5.30

4.96

4.94

5.04

109 AT&SFeRyadjM4sstampedl995

.5.37

5.21

5.50

5.45

5.32

5.41

5.40

5.37

5.66

5.34

5.01

5.03

5.18

.110 Northern Pac Ry

gen

lien3s 2047

4.99

5.02

5.19

5.28

5.15

5.13

5.03

5.14

5.25

5.09

4.88

4.93

4.91

111 AtI CoastLine lstconsM4s 1952

5.02

4.98

5.05

5.08

5.10

5.27

5.39

5.32

5.31

5.14

4.81

4.95

4.95

112 Del&HudsonColst&refM4sl943

5.02

5.22

5.13

5.36

5.23

5.25

5.31

5.46

5.50

5.30

4,90

5.01

5.07

113

Cen

tralo

fGeo

rgia

cons

Mss

1945

5.78

5.74

5.81

5.88

5.81

5.95

6.06

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96.

025.

775.

455.

445.

4011

4 Pe

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nsM

4s 1

948

4.68

4..78

4.85

4.96

4.90

4.95

4.98

5.01

5.05

5.06

4.49

4.70

4.82

115

Kan

sasC

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stM

3sl9

5O5.

865.

675.

815.

805.

625.

565,

805.

705,

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63.5

.44

5.42

5.54

116

L&N

(AtIK

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&C

inD

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5195

55.

375.41

5.41

5.69

5.42

5.23

5.38

5.38

5.54

5.53

5,16

5.06

5.37

117

Illinois Central RRrefM4s 1935

5.25

5.04

5.15

5.26

5.28

5.30

5.38

5.40

5.40

5.25

4.93

4.92

4 99

118 Chic

Bur

l&Q

uinc

y ge

nM4s

195

85.

034.

954.99

5.09

5.04

5,15

5.16

5.19

5.27

5.07

4.77

4.94

5:04

119 Southern Ry 1st consM5s 1994

..

5.46

5.41

5.46

5.43

5.41

5.59

.5.59

5.61

5.70

5.46

5.16

5.22

524

120 UnPacRRlstlien&refM4s2008

5.18

5.01

5,03

5.08

5.05

5.16

5.09

5.09

5.14

4.99

4.71

4.7.5

4:91

121 AtI Coast Line (L& N coil) 4s 1952

6.02

5.89

5.99

5.96

5.85

6.04

6,03

5.92

6.00

5,74

5,29

5.33

5 40

122 Norf&West(PC&C)Joint4sl94l

.5.17

5.09

5.25

5.41

5.45

5.56

5.63

5.73

5.87

5.92

5.24

5.09

5.11

123 GrtNorRylst&refM4j.(s1961

4.98

4.89

4.92

4.98

4.84

4.98

4.99

4.97

5.02

4.98

4.76

4.76

4.97

124 CanadaSolst&refcons5sl9ó2

5.83

5.56

5.56

5.62

5.33

5.53

5.83

5.86

5.89

5.65

5.13

5.27

5.26

125 Morris&Essex

1st

2000

4.81

4.71

4.69

4.67

4.60

4.66

4.68

4.68

4.73

4.63

4.36

4.43

4.56

126

Pennsylvania

1960

.4.

614.62

4.67

4.67

4.67

4.73

4.77

4.79

4.85

4.80

4,60

4.66

4.74

Page 92: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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70West Shore RR1stM 4s2361

4.91

5.05

5.25

5,32

5.14

5.045,14

5.48

5.52

5.29

5.54

5505

.51

76Illinois Central RRcoIl4s 1952

..

5.38

5.50

5.53

5.56

5.48

5.46

5.45

5.47

5.77

5.63

-5.87

5.90

5.89

78 Wabash RRCo lstM5s 1939

5.20

5.23

5.39

5.49

5.36

5.33

5.47

5.82

5.85

5.60

5.80

5.91

5.86

82 Ches&OhioRylstcons5sl939

5.09

5.15

5.18

5.12

5.16

5.14

5.25

5.37

5.46

5.33

5.50

5.60

5.51

83

Iii Central (LNO&T) col4s 1953

5.54

5.56

5.69

5.78

5.60

5.57

5.72

6.04

5.97

5.87

6.10

6.15

6.15

86 ETennV&GRycons lstMSs 1956

5.30

5.28

5.34

5.25

5.24

5.30

5.24

5.65

5.64

5.47

5.58

5.66

5.64

88 LakeSh&MichSo

1997

4,84

4.85

4.88

4.89

4.88

4.7?

4.87

4.98

5.10

4.91

5.01

5.10

5.07

91 UnionPacRRlstM RR&lg4s 1947

4.78

4.88

4.92

4.89

4.89

4.93

5.00

5.05

5.09

4.97

5.05

5.11

5.14

92 Chicago&NorWestgenM33.4s1987

5.00

5.04

4.94

5.04

5.02

5.03

5.07

5.32

5.19

5.11

5.20

5.25

5.34

93 ChiRockls&PacRygenM4sl988

5.22

5.22

5.14

5.29

5.31

5.31

5.44

5.61

5.56

5.40

5.55

5.57

5.47

94 AtchTop&SantaFegenM4sl995

4.76

4.86

4.86

4.94

4.88

4.93

5.01

5.17

5.13

5.03

5.18

5.09

5.05

95 NVCent&Hudson

1997

4.91

4.90

4.90

4.98

4.94

4.95

4.98

5.04

5.11

4.98

5.12

5.23

5.22

98 Louisville&Nashunified4sl940

5.04

5.15

5.22

5.21

5.11

5.15

5.19

5.30

5.37

5.26

5.36

5.48

5:45

99 OregonRR&NavCoconsM4sl946

4.97

5.01

5.29

5.45

5.26

5.31

5.42

5.65

5.74

5.42

5.57

5.62

5.51

100 Chi

1949

5.09

5.12

5.25

5.21

5.06

5.10

5.18

5.39

5.25

5.14

5.21

5.22

5.26

101 Central Pacific lstrefM4s 1949

5.22

5.29

5.42

5.41

5.34

5.37

5.55

5.82

5.71

5.58

5.77

5.66

5.73

102

NorPacpriorlienlgM4sl99l

4.76

4.78

4.84

4.90

4.87

4.93

.5.04

5,19

5.24

5.12

.5.27

5.18

5.22

103 Norf&WestRylstconsM4sl996

4.79

4.76

4.78

4.85

4.92

4.97

4.98

5.04

5.13

5.04

5.11

5.17

5.17

104 CentraIRRofNJgenMSsl987

4.82

4.87

4.87

4.87

4.89

4.87

4.89

4.95

4.96

4.93

4.95

4.95

4.99

105

5.57

5.70

5.74

5.79

5.89

5.76

5.82

6.05

6.31

6.16

6.39

6.44

6.37

106 N&WRyDivlstl&genM4sl944

5.29

5.36

5.44

5.48

5.42

5.38

5.41

5.77

5.76

5.60

5.52

5.68

5.78

107 OreShLineRRconslstMssl94ó

5.11

5.09

5.22 '520

5.16

5.13

5.30

5.34

5.49

5.41

.5.45

5.55

5.53

108

Southern Pac lstrefM4s 1955

5.04

5.11

5.17

5.24

5.20

5.17

5.26

5.40

5.46

5.27

5.50

5.51

5.42

109 AT&SFe RyadjM4sstamped 1995

5.18

5.31

5.33

535

5.36

5.32

.5.44

5.54

5.63

5.48

5.63

5.78

5.69

110 Northern Pac Ry

gen

lien 3s 2047

4.97

5.06

5.11

5.17

5.08

5.08

5.16

5.33

5.32

5.26

5.46

-5.53

5.53

111 AtlCoastLjnelstconsM4sl952

4.95

5.05

5.08

5.20

5.14

5.16

5.25

5.47

5.42

5.28

5.42

5.45

5.45

112Del&HudsonColst&refM4sl943

5.07

5.13

5.16

5.16

5.12

5.18

5.16

5.35

5.53

5.29

5,39

5.61

5.67

113 Centralof Georgia consMss 1945

5.40

5.58

5.69

5.72

5.53

5.64

5.75

5.86

6.04

5.96

5.91

6.05

6.03

114.Pennsylvania RRconsM4s 1948

4.82

4.75

4.66

4.86

4.87

4.90

4.82

5.00

5.10

4.90

5.04

5.04

5.01

115 KansasCitySoRylstM3sl95o

.5.54

5.38

5.72

5.77

5.75

.5.75

5.76

6.37

6.42

.5.97

6.14

6.31

6.10

W11

6L&N(AtlKnox&CinDiv)4s1955

5,37

5.49

5.39

5.32

5.35

5.40

5.51

5.72

5.84

5.44

5.78

5.75

5.81

117 IllinoisCentralRRrefM4sl955

4.99

5.05

5.19

5.29

5.17

5.18

5.27

5.33

5.43

5.20

5.35

5,55

5.68

118 Chic Burl&QuincygenM4s 1958

5.04

5.04

5.13

5.15

5.08

5.07

5.08

5.39

5.24

5.14

5.27

5.31

5.24

119 SouthernRylstconsM5sl994

5.24

5.28

5.33

5.37

5.33

5.31

5.43

5.54

5.65

5.65

5.79

5.84

5.84

120 UnPacRRlstlien&ref.M4s2008

4.91

4.89

4.92

5.01

4.98

4.98

5.11

5.16

5.19

.5.08

5.25

5.19

5.17

121 AtlCoastLine(L&NcoIl)4s1952

5.40

5.51

5.71

5.73

5.59

5.53

5.68

6.01

5.98

5.75

-5.93

6.18

6.10

122 Norf&West(PC-&C)Joint4s 1941

5.11

5.12

5,16

5.21

5.21

.5.22

5.28

5.28

5.32

5.28

5.42

5.71

5.67

123

4.97

5.05

5.04

5.07

5.03

5.01

5.07

5.18

5.17

5.02

5.28

5.31

5.14

124 CanadaSojst&refcons5sl9ó2

5.26

5,34

5,37

5.61

5.41

5.36

5.35

5.73

5.61

5.62

5.88

5,95

5.83

125

4.56

4.64

4.72

4.81

4,79

4.84

4.83

4,93

4,94

4.86

4.90

4.96

4.98

126 Pennsylvania

1960

4.74

4.74

4.76

4.85

4.83

4.76

4.76

4.76

4.90

4.95

4.97

5.00

4.99

Page 93: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 94: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 95: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

JAN

. 192

2—JA

N. 1

923

Ref

._N

o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pril

May

June

july

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec.

jan.

70 West Shore RR lstM4s 2361.

4.97

5.04

4.99

4.94

4.81

4.82

4.74

4.71

4.80

4.82

4.87

4.83

76Illinois Central RRcoll 4s 1952

5.12

5.23

5.17

5.14

5.05

5.03

5.04

4.90

4.87

496

5.00

4.94

5.01

78 Wabash RRCo lstMSs 1939

5.40

5.40

5.35

5.24

5.22

5.22

5.08

3.03

4.95

5.11

5.26

5.24

5.15

82

5.04

5.31

5.11

5.00

4.91

4.88

4.80

4.73

4.76

4.91

4.93

4.91

4.90

83 lllCentral(LNO&T)co14s1953

5.37

5.44

5.33

5.15

5.20

5.28

5.14

3.05

5.07

5.14

5.26

5.23

5.21

86 ETennV&GRyconslstM5sl956

5.43

5.33

5.24

5.18

5.15

5.12

5.11

3.03

5.03

5.07

5.12

5.16

5.09

884.51

4.60

4.57

4.46

4.44

4.48

4.45

4.51

4.48

4.52

4.52

4.65

4.56

91 UnionPacRRlstMRR&1g4s1947

.4.

754.

594.62

4.57

4.58

4.47

4.31

4.33

4.37

4.55

4•54

4.61

4.54

92 Chicago&Nor

1987

4.65

4.76

4.77

4.73

4.72

4.70

4.65

4.51

4.54

4.61

4.66

4.72

4.74

93 Chi Rock Is&Pac RygenM4s 1988

4.97

4.92

4.89

4.89

4.86

4.92

4.82

4.78

4.75

4.86

4.91

4.92

5.03

94

Atc

hTop

&Sa

ntaF

egen

M4s

l99s

4.60

4.57

4.58

4.54

4.53

4.46

4.33

4.32

4.35

4.50

4.53

4.49

4.52

95

4.64

4.66

4.64

4.58

4.57

4.59

4.47

4.37

4.42

4.55

4.57

459

4.62

98 Louisville&Nashunjfied4s194Q

4.89

4.84

4.79

4.71

4.76

4.74

4.56

4.55

4.57

4.75

4.86

4.79

4.81

99

Ore

gon

RR

&N

av C

o co

nsM

4s 1

946

5.06

5.07

5.00

4.89

4.87

4.83

4.80

4.74

4.61

4.84

4.91

4.90

4.93

100 Chi

1949

4.87

4.87

4.86

4.62

4.67

4.67

4.59

4.57

4.48

4.73

4.77

4.71

4.73

101 Central Pacific 1st refM4s 1949

5.13

5.17

5.11

4.94

4.85

4.82

4.64

4.65

4.65

4.80

4.99

4.90

4.91

102 Nor Pac Ry priorlienlgM4s 1997

4.72

4.79

4.76

4.68

4.62

4.65

4.54

4.52

4.47

4.61

4.71

4.70

4.72

103 Norf&WestRylstconsM4sl99fi

4.62

4.63

4.69

4.60

4.58

4.49

4.32

4.33

4.32

4.46

4.56

4.48

4.38

104

4.75

4.71

4.69

4.63

4.61

4.63

4.58

4.52

4.54

4.55

4.59

4.66

4.63

105 Hocking Valley lstconsM434s 1999

5.46

5.42

5.36

5.26

5.26

5.28

3.23

5.11

5.07

.5.21

5.33

5.30

5.30

106 N&WRyDivlstl&genM4sl944

5.15

5.19

5.12

5.07

5.06

4.94

4.82

4.80

4.70

4.84

5.01

4.97

5.06

107

Ore Sh Line RRcoiis istM5s 1946

5.13

5.16

4.97

4.96

4.88

4.68

4.64

4.66

4.74

4.82

4.79

4.73

108 Southern Pac 1st refMsf 4s 1955

4.92

4.96

4.89 -471

4.80

4.73

4.62

4.51

4.53

4.67

4.82

4.81

4.76

109 AT&SFe RyadjM4sstamped 1995

5.04

4.99

4.96

4.86

4.85

4.87

4.80

4.73

4.75

4.89

4.95

4.88

4.92

110 Northern PacRygenlien3s2o4l

4.94

5.00

4.92

4.82

4.82

4.92

4.82

4.74

4.70

4.8.5

4.95

4.92

4.92

111 AtiCoast Line 1st cons M

4.81

4.78

4.77

4.70

4.75

4.68

4.57

4.54

4.54 .467

4.83

4.78

4.78

112 Del&HudsonColst&refM4sl943

4.90

4.93

5.06

4.78

4.74

4.79

4.74

4.61

4.60

4.82

4.91

4.91

4.93

113 Centralof Georgia consM5s 1945

5.65

5.53

5.33

5.26

5.12

5.20

5.20

5.07

4.96

5.13

5.23

5.22

5.25

114 Pennsylvania RRconsM4s 1948

4.84

4.79

4.89

4.70

4.60

4.62

4.50

4.47

4.52

4.54

4.62

4.53

4.70

115 KansasCitySoRylstM3si95o

5.54

5.51

5,43

5.33

5.17

5.08

4.93

4.92

4.94

5.08

.5.10

5.13

.5.20

116 L&N(AtlKnox&CinDiv)4s1955

5.18

3.14

4.98

4.90

4.86

4.90

4.79

4.77

4.82

4.83

4.93

4.89

4.90

117 Illinois Central RRrefM4s-1955

4.96

4.93

4.89

4.75

4.78

4.78

4.66

4.56

4.58

4.75

4.86

4.80

4.82

118 Chic Burl &QuincygenM4s 1958

4.70

4.75

4.76

4.65

4.66

4.61

4.47

4.51

4.50

4.57

4.76

4.67

4.68

119 Southern Ry 1st consM5s 1994

5.63

5.55

5.41

5.26

5.23

5.28

5.18

5.07

5.06

5.10

5.21

5.17

5.17

120 Un Pac RR 1st lien&refM4s 2008

4.76

4.75

4.67

4.58

4.67

4.65

4.53

4.49

4.50

4.65

4.71

4.68

4.57

121 AtI Coast Line (L & N coil) 4s 1952

5.52

5.48

5.32

5.22

5.19

5.24

5.10

5.00

5.07

5.18

.5.30

5.22

5.20

122 Norf&West(PC&C)Joint4sl94l

5.30

5.27

5.25

5.15

5.07

3.04

5.04

5.02

4.90

4.99

5.10

5.09

5.01

123

4.89

4.89

4.90

4.85

4.77

4.73

4.69

4.72

4.50

4.70

4.82

4.81

4.74

124 Canada So lst&ref cons

1962

5.33

5.29

5.26

5.12

5.14

5.12

5.05

4.95

4.97

5.05

5.07

5.08

5.03

125 Morrjg&Essex

2000

4.48

4.52

4.55

4.50

4.36

4.44

4.36

4.34

4.35

4.45

4.62

4.55

4.52

126

4.83

4.76

4.77

4.74

4.67

4.65

4.54

4.54

4.48

4.47

4.59

4.66

4.63

Page 96: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

JAN

. 192

3—JA

N. 1

924

Ref

.N

o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pril

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec

.Ja

n.-

70WestShoreRRlstM4g236l

4.83

4.92

5.06

5.08

4.98

5.03

5.04

5.02

5.10

5.07

5.06

5.08

5.01

76lllinoisCenualRRcoll4sl952

5.01

5.02

5.13

5.24

5.06

5.18

5.12

5.12

5.02

5.20

5.03

4.98

4.99

78 Wabash RRC0 lstMSs 1939

5.15

5.15

5.37

5.41

5.38

5.43

5.47

5.47

5.50

5.40

5.35

5.33

5.24

82 Ches&OhioRylstcons5sl939

4.90

4.85

5.06

5.10

5.00

4.99

4.99

4.97

4.97

5.04

5.00

4.98

4,99

83 IllCentral(LNO&T)eoj4s1953

5.21

5.28

5.40

5.43

5.34

5.36

5.33

5.32

5.31

5.37

5.37

5.37

5.30

86 ETennV&GRy cons lstMSs 1956

5.09

5.13

5.21

5.14

5.15

5.15

5.12

5.11

5.14

5.09

5.09

5.08

5.09

88

4.56

4.68

4.81

4.69

4.62

4.64

4.67

4.68

4.73

4.64

4.67

4.69

4.56

91 Union PaeRR 1StMRR&1g4s1947

4.54

4.44

4.66

4.73

4.65 .4.62

4.58

4.48

4.59

4.55

4.67

4.65

4.58

92 Chicago&Nor

Wes

t19

874.74

4.83

4.86

4.97

4.83

4.86

4.97

4.95

4.98

5.06

5.03

5.10

5.06

93 ChiRockls&PacRygenM4s 1988

5.03

5.00

5.14

5.16

5.15

5.15

5.12

.5.14

5.21

5.24

5.19

5.16

5.09

94 Atch Top & Santa Fe gen M 4s1995

4.52

4.54

4.67

4.68

4.58

4.59

4.56

4.47

4.57

4.35

4.58

4.62

4.58

95 NVCent&Hudson RjverM334s 1997

4.62

4.75

4.85

4.82

4.74

4.78

4.79

4.78

4.83

4.79

4.75

4.79

4.69

98 Louisville&Nashunifiecl4sj94O

4.81

4.78

5.00

4.92

4.78

4.90

4.89

4.84

5.00

4.99

4.92

4.90

4.86

99 Oregon RR&Nav Co congM4s 1946

4.93

4.90

5.01

5.08

4,95

4.95

4.97

5.00

5.01

4.98

4.97

4.98

4.98

100 Chi Bur &Q

(IllDiv) M

1949

4.75

4,79

4.89

4.86

4.78

4.86

4.69

4.84

4.90

4.86

4.89

4.91

4.87

101 CentralPacificlstrefM4gl949

4.91

4.94

4.91

.5.27

5.01

5.05

4.98

4.88

4.97

4.98

4.87

4,95

4.94

102 NorPacRyorioriienigM4s 1997

4.72

4.71

4.88

4.88

4.81

4.85

4.86

4.81

4.86

4.92

4.92

4.96

4.93

103 Norf & West Ry 1st cons M 4s 1996

4.38

4.41

4.59

4.61

4.58

4.62

4.54

4.42

4.44

4.52

4.48

4.58

4.58

104 CentralRRofNJgenM5sl987

4.63

4.74

4.74

4.79

4,74

4.72

4.77

4.74

4.71

4.82

4.84

4.81

4.75

105 Hocking Valley

1999

5.30

5.35

.5.51

5.50

5.47

5.42

.5.51

5.39

5.45

5.44

5.37

5.29

010

6N&WRy Div lstl&genM4g 1944

5.06

5.05

5.25

5.23

5.09

5.08

5.07

4.93

4.93

5.01

4.97

4.94

4.98

101 Ore Sh Line RRcons lstMSs 1946

4,734.86

4.98

4.95

4.91

4.85

4.89 '4.88

4.95

4.95

4.90

4.88

4.82

108 Southern Pac 1st refMsf 4s 1955

4.76

4.84

4.98

4.98

4.82

4.88

4.88

4.82

4.87

4.90

4.78

4.85

4.82

109 AT&SFe RyadjM4sstamped 1995

4.92

4.98

5.10

5.15

5.02

5.03

5.03

5.04

5.05

5,09

5.01

5.02

5.02

110

Nor

ther

n Pa

c R

y ge

n lie

n 3s

204

74.92

4.93

4.82

5.07

5.01

5.04

5.07

5.05

5.08

5.14

5.14

5.25

5.17

111 AtI Coast Line 1st cons M 4s 1952

4.78 .

4.80

4.98

5.01

4.90

4.93

4.90

4.85

4.93

4.92

4.85

4.85

4.81

112Del&HudsonColst&refM4sl943

493 495

5.16

5.21

5,08

5.08

5.23

5.18

5.27

5.33

5.34

5.38

5.18

113 Centralof GeorgiaconsM5s 1945

5.25

5.21

5.42

5.40

5.32

5.36

5.35

5.35

5.39

5.39

5.37

5.42

5.32

114Pennsylvanja RRconsM4s 1948

4.70

4.65

4.77

4.76

4,75

4.73

4.81

4.75

4.84

4.83

4.85

4.84

4.83

11$ KansasCitySoRylstM3sl9so

5.20

5.24

.5.33

5.42

5.36

5.43

5.49

5.22

5.09

5.10

5.00

.5.17

5.19

C12

116 L&N(AtlKnox.&CinDiv)4s 1955

4.90

4.88

5.16

5.13

3.05

3.02

3.20

3.07

3.16

5.09

5.1,0

4.99

4'94

117 Illinois Central RRrefM4s 1955

4.82

4,83

5.03

5.00

4.93

4.87

4.88

4.86

4.98

5.04

4.93

4.93

4.87

118

Chic Burl&QuincygenM4s 1958

4.68

4.73

4.94

4.9.

54.

824.

804.84

4.80

4.90

4.93

4.85

4.83

4.78

119

Southern. Ry lstconsMSs 1994

5.17

5.22

5.35

.5.29

5.30

5.24

5,24

5.29

5.31

5.31

5.24

5.23

5.19

120UnPacRRlstlien&refM4s2008

4.57

4.74

4.90

4.88

4.79

4.82

4.81

4.78

4.90

4.94

4.84

4.87

4.85

121

Ati

Coa

stLine (L&N

coil)

4s 1952

5.20

5.25

5.39

3.49

5,37

5.41

3.29

5.29

5.27

3.27

5.23

5.21

5.15

122 Norf&West(PC&C)Joint4sj94l

5.01

5.10

5.24

5.20

5.18

5.22

5.22

5.23

5.22

5.23

5.18

5.15

5.07

123

4.74

4.78

4.87

4.8.

54.

824.

834.

874.

975.

015.

065.

085.

065.

0212

4 C

anad

aSo

1st &

ref c

ons

1962

5.03

5.06

5.20

5.23

5.19

5.18

5.13

5.08

5.17

5.14

5.09

5.10

5.11

125

4.52

4.54

4.60

4.66

4.59

4.61

4.67

4.71

4.73

4.75

4.67

4.63

126 Pennsylvania

1960

4.63

4.66

4.78

4.84

4.76

4.75

4.78

4.78

4.68

4.84

4.81

4.81

4.79

Page 97: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

JAN

. 192

4—JA

N. 1

923

Ref

.N

o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pril

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec

.Ja

n.C

)

70WestShoreRRlstM4s23ól

5.01

4.87

4.97

4.96

4.96

4.87

4.81

4.78

4.84

4.85

4.83

4.85

4.86

76 Illinois Central RRcoll 4s 1952

4.99

5.05

5.06

5.12

4.97

4.92

4.88

4.83

4.91

4.86

4.94

4.88

4.87

78 Wabash RR Co lstM5s 1939

5.24

5.21

5.20

5.14

5,05

5.04

4.96

4.94

4.96

4.92

4.94

4.95

4.93

82 Ches&Ohio Ry 1st cons 5s 1939

4.99

4.99

4.96

4.94

4.86

4.94

4.79

4.85

4.81

4.69

4.80

4.76

4.75

83

Ill Central (L NO & T) col4s 1953

5.30

5.31

5.28

5.22

5.08

5.01

4.99

5.05

5.06

5.05

5.04

5.10

5.08

86 ETennV&GRycons lstM5s 1956

5.09

5.09

5.10

5.07

5.02

3.03

4.99

4.98

4.99

4.96

4.93

4.98

4.96

88

4.56

4.60

4.58

4.52

4.52

4.45

4.47

4.59

4.48

4.47

4.48

4.52

4.50

91 Union Pac RRIstMRR&1g4s1947

4.58

4.71

4.73

4.69

4.63

4.59

4.49

4.55

4.55

4.57

4.55

4.61

4.60

92 Chicago&Nor West

1987

5.06

5.04

5.03

5.01

4.98

4.91

4.79

4.79

4.81

4.79

4.79

4.80

4.83

93 ChiRock Is&PacRygenM4s 1988

5.09

5.06

5.05

5.03

4.98

4.95

4.87

4.87

4.86

4.87

4.86

4.84

4.84

94 AtchTop&SantaFegenM4sl995

4.58

4.63

4.82

4.60

4.57

4.52

4.45

4.49

4.50

4.49

4.48

4.53

4.52

95 NYCenI&Hudson

1997

4.69

4.73

4.72

4,68

4.60

4.56

4.51

4.65

4.61

4.54

4.61

4.60

4.63

98 Louisville&Nashunified4sl940

4.86

4.95

4.90

4.83

4.74

4.64

4,64

4.76

4.64

4.63

4.61

4.69

4.69

99 Oregon RR&NavCo consM4s 1946

4.98

5.06

5.01

4.98

4.98

4.90

4.84

4.83

4.83

4.82

4.85

4.93

4.86

100 Chi

1949

4.87

4.87

4.90

4.85

4.80

4.73

4.73

4.74

4.71

4.71

4.75

4.76

4.73

101 Central Pacific lstrefM 4s1949

4.94

4.98

4.97

4.96

4.96

4.86

4.79

4.89

4.87

4,86

4.85

4.88

4.86

102 Nor Pac Ry prior lien 1gM 4s1997

4.93

4.95

5.00

4.98

4.91

4.83

4.73

4.76

4.73

4.73

4.76

4.80

4.78

103 Norf&WestRylstconsM4sl996

4.58

4.62

4.62

4.59

4.58

4.50

4.43

4.48

4.48

4.47

4.47

4.53

4.52

104 Central RRofNJgenMSs 1987

4.75

4.75

4.76

4.75

4,72

4.68

4.67

4.72

4.72

4.70

4.64

4.64

4.62

105 Hocking Valley 1st

1999

5.29

5.32

5.32

5.25

5.18

5.11

5.05

5.08

5.08

5.10

.5.08

5.06

5.01

106 N&WRyDiv lstl&genM4s 1944

.4.

985.02

5.03

4.99

4.99

4.88

4.82

4.78

4.86

4.78

4.85

4.85

4.86

107 Ore Sh Line RR cons lstM5s 1946

4,82

4.83

4.87

4.83

4.80

4.72

465

4.67

4.70

4.63

4.59

4.68

4.67

108

SouthernPaclstrefMsf4sl955

4.82

4.88

4.87

4.85

4.78

4.69

4.61

4.70

4.67

4.62

4.66

4.75

4.70

109 AT & S Fe Ry adj M 4sstamped 1993

5.02

5.00

4.91

4.96

4.92

4.88

4.79

4.85

4.86

4.84

4.80

4.86

4.84

110 Northern PacRy gen lien 38 2047.

5.17

5.20

5.28

5.27

5.20

5.02

4.91

4.98

4.93

4.95

4.97

5.00

4.96

111 AtlCoastLinelstconsM4sl952

4.81

4.84

4.84

4.79

4.69

4.62

4.52

4.59

4.60

4.55

4.61

4.66

4.66

112 Del&HudsonColst&refM4sl943

5.18

.5.17

5.12

5.10

5.03

4.90

4.84

4.96

4.92

4.90

4.77

4.82

4.90

113 Centralof GeorgiaconsM5s 1945

5.32

5.28

5.33

5.24

5.14

4.99

5.00

5.02

5.05

4.97

4.95

5.04

5.01

114 Pennsylvania RRconsM4s 1948

4.83

4.83

4.82

4.77

4.74

4.59

4.58

4.52

4.54

4.53

4.52

4.65

4.62

115 KansasCitySoRylstM3sl95o

5.19

5.27

5.23

5.23

5.14

5.04

5.02

5.08

5.08

5.04

5.01

5.08

5.07

116 L&N(AtlKnox&CinDiv)4s1955

4.94

4.94

5.01

4.88

4.89

4.75

4.63

4.72

4.69

4.67

4.65

4.66

4.70

117 IllinoisCentralRRrefM 4s1955

•.

4.87

4.91

4.90

4.88

4.78

4.68

4.61

4.68

4.66

4.60

4.65

4.73

4.70

118 Chic Burl&QuincygenM4s 1958

4.78

4.83

4.85

4.82

4.76

4.65

4.60

4.67

4.63

4.62

4.66

4.69

4.66

119 SouthernRylstconsM5sl994

5.19

5.17

5.15

5.10

5.03

5.00

4.95

4.96

4.97

4.97

4.92

4.95

4.97

120 UnPacRRlstlien&refM4s2008

4.85

4.80

4.84

4.85

4,77

4.64

4.60

4.69

4.64

4.65

4.68

4.73

4.72

121 AtI Coast Line (L & N coil) 481952

5.15

5.18

5.'17

5.12

5.07

5.04

4.92

4-97

4,93

4.92

4.88

4.89

4.88

122 Norf&West(PC&C)Joint4s 1941

5.07

5.16

5.03

4.98

4.93

4.90

4.86

4.84

4.80

4.68

4.70

4.80

4.69

123

5.02

4.98

5.04

4.93

4.93

4.86

4.70

4.79

4.78

4.74

4.73

4.70

4.71

124 CanadaSolst&refcons5s 1962

5.11

5.07

5.05

5.04

5.02

4.95

4.95

4.92

4.93

4.91

4.91

4.91

4.95

125

4.63

4.62

4.59

4.60

4.59

4.54

4.44

4.50

4.51

4.49

4.55

4.54

4.57

126 Pennsylvania

1960

4.79

4.80

4.77

4.73

4.69

4.58

4.54

4.56

4.59

4.57

4.54

4.5S

4.35

Page 98: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

Ref

..

I

No.

,N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pr.

Nay

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec

.Ja

n.

70WestShoreRRlstM4g236l

4.86

4.86

4.87

4,83

4.76

4.76

4.81

4.83

4.84

4.84

4.81

4,724.74

76lllrnoisCentralRRcoII4slQ52

4.87

4.87

4.85

4.82

4.79

4.78

4.85

4.83

4.84

4.87

4.84

4.82

4.76

83 IllCentral(LNO&T)col4s 1953

5.08

5.04

5.04

5.01 .4.98

4.99

5.01

5.09

5.03

5.05

5.02

5.00

4.97

88

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.47

4.41

4.43

4.43

4.45

4.46

4.52

4.48

4.52

4.47

91 UnionPacRRlstMRR&1g4s1947

4.60

4.56

4.51

4.46

4.43

4.47

4.58

4.61

4.57

4.59

4.61

4.58

4.50

92

4.83

4.79

4.78

4.83

4.7'4

4.76

4.78

4.83

4.73

4.81

4.82

4.77

4.71

93 ChiRockls&PacRygenM4sl988

4.84

4.83

4.82

4.84

4.75

4.78

4.82

4.87

4.78

4.81

4.79

4.76

4.70

94 AtchTop&SantaFegenM4sl99s

4.52

4.51

4.50

4.46

4,38

4.41

4.47

4.51

4.51

4.53

4.53

4.49

4.44

95 NYCent&Hudsort RiverM334s 1997

4.63

4.63

4.58

4.54

4.48

4'.Sl

4.55

4.54

4.54

4.60

4.56

4,56

4.56

99 Oregon RR&NavCo consM4s 1946

4.86

4.85

4.84

4.83

4.78

4.72

4.78

4.82

4.81

4.82

4.76

4.74

4.69

100 ChiBur&Q(IllDiv)M334s 1949

4.73

4.75

4.58

4.56

4.47

4.50

4.53

4.65

4.65

4.70

4.71

4.66

4.60

101 Central Pacific 1st reiM4s 1949

4.86

4.90

4.83

4.80

4.74

4.77

4.84

4.90

4.86

4.88

4.81

4.76

4.71

102 NorPacRypriorlienlgM4sl99l

4.78

4.75

4.77

4.80

4.75

4.70

4.75

4.82

4.80

4.80

4.77

4.69

4.65

103 Norf&WestRylstconsM4sl99ó

4.52

4.52

4.45

4.45

4.37

4.37

4.44

4.51

4.47

4.53

4.52

4.45

4.43

104 Central RRofNJgenMSs 1987

4.62

4.63

4.60

4.59

4.55

4.56

4.57

4.62

4.56

4.56

4.59

4.58

4.55

105 HockingValleylstconsM44sl999

5.01

5.00

5.00

4.99

4.96

4.93

4.95

5.04

5.02

5.00

4.97

4.93

4.90

210

6N&WRy Div Istl&genM4s 1944

4.86

4.88

4.90

4.78

4.72

4.74

4.81

4.81

4.76

4.77

4.75

4.72

4.74

r10

7Ore Sh Line RR cons lstM5s 1946

4.67

4.66

4.63

4.60

4.52

4,57

4.69

4.68

4.75

4.77

4.69

4.67

4.60

108 Southern. Pac lstrefMsf 4s 1955

4.70

4.66

4.60

4.56

4.52

4.57

4.68

4.75

4.71

4.76

4.72

4.67

4.56

109 AT&SFeRyadjM4sstampedl99S

4.84

4.84

4.84

4.81

4.76

4.78

4.82

4.85

4.79

4.80

4.77

4.71

4.71

110 Northern Pac

Ry

gen lien. 3s 2047

4.96

4.94

4.95

5.00

4.95

4.89

4.96

5.05

5.01

4.99

4.95

4.89

4.83

011

1AtlCoastLinelstconsM4sl952

4.66

4.60

4.50

4.43

4.38

4.43

4.49

4.59

4.53

4.57

4.54

4.51

4.46

411

4PennsylvaniaRRconsM4s 1948

4.62

4.63

4.54

4.52

4.47

4.52

4.48

4.65

4.62

4.64

4.59

4.58

4.56

116 L&N(At!Knox&CinDiv)4s1955

4.70

4.68

4.64

4.56

4.48

4.52

4.59

4.77

4.63

4.74

4.69

4.65

4.58

117 IllinoisCentralRRrefM4sl955

4.70

4.67

4.56

4.55

4,51

4.54

4.64

4.72

4.61

4.66

4.67

4.60

4.49

118 Chic Bnrl&Quincy genM4s 1958

4.66

4.62

4.57

4.54

4.49

4.53

4.62

4.64

4.62

4.66

4.65

4.58

4.51

119 SouthernRylstconsM5sl994

497 493 494

4.90

4.85

4.83

4.84

4.87

4.84

4.82

4.82

4.80

4.78

120 UnPacRRlstlien&refM4s2008

4.72

4.68

4.64

4,58

4.54

4.58

4.68

4.74

4.67

4.66

4.70

4.67

4.60

123 GrtNorRylst&reIM4gsl96l

4.71

4.71

4.72

4.74

4.71

4.68

4.75

4.84

4.74

4.76

4.75

4.62

4.61

124 Canada So lst&ref cons

5s1962

4.95

4.93

4.92

4.88

4.81

4.87

4.88

4.88

4.86

4.86

4.84

4.85

4.79

126

1960

4.55

4.54

4.54

4.52

4.51

4.53

4.53

4.61

4.58

4.60

4.59

4.57

4.52

CD

127CanadianNorRy2Syrsf'deb6)4s1946

5.20

5.16

5.12

5.15

5.09

5.08

5.15

5.14

5.10

5.11

5.13

5.12

5.13

128 GrtNorRygenSeriesBS4sl9S2

5.43

5.38

5.43

5.46

5.39

5.35

5.38

5.46

5.42

5.38

5.39

5.32

5.25

129 AtlCoast Line gen unified

1964

5.01

5.00

5.00

4,95

4.87

4.84

4.86

4.99

4.89

4.85

4.85

4.80

4.78

130

1965

4.84

4.85

4.81

4.88

4.87

4.88

4.91

4.96

4.90

4.90

4.88

4.83

4.77

131 PennsylvaniaRRgenMssl968

4.89

4.84

4.83

4.86

4.88

4.89

4.94

4.97

4.89

4.92

4.89

4.86

4.79

132 GrtNorRygenSeriesCss 1973

5.40

5.33

5.36

5.41

5.35

5.27

5.30

5.35

5.31

5.30

5.24

5.19

5.11

133 StLouisSoWesternlstM4sl989

5.02

4.98

5.01

4.97

4.88

4.88

4.88

5.02

4.89

4.85

4.85

4.80

4.78

134 Mo-Kansas-TexasRylstM4sl9QO

4.94

4.92

4.98

4.93

4.79

4.76

4.86

4.86

4.81

4.82

4.80

4.77

4.75

135 Ches&Ohio RygenM434s 1992

5.10

5.04

5.06

5.05

4.95

4.91

4.97

4.95

4.92

4.94

4.92

4.88

4.84

136 CleveCinChi&StLRygenM4sl993

4.85

4.89

4.91

4.87

4.80

4.77

4.82

4.87

4.81

4.81

4.79

4.76

4.74

137 NYCentral RRconsojM4s 1998

4.80

4.79

4.80

4.75

4.68

4.66

4.69

4.79

4.76

4.78

4.76

4.68

4.63

cc

138Tex&PacRylstMSs2000

4.98

4.96

4.97

4.96

4.88

4.89

4.94

4.96

4.89

4.87

4.86

4.86

4.84

139 LehighVRR(Pa)genconsM4s2003

5.03

5.00

5.00

4.98

4.95

4.9!

4.86

5.00

4.95

4.95

4.92

4.90

4.83

lWIUanaGJanPaCky4%debstock

.1

in'

5.04i

5.u2

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4.41

4.52

4.63

4.61

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4.48

4.59

4.62

83 lllCentral(LNO&T)co14s1953

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4.46

4.44

4.30

4.55

4.69

4.72

4.69

4.75

4.74

4.66

4.83

4.80

88

4.08

4.10

4.15

4.10

4.14

4.27

4.28

4.27

4.31

4.33

4.34

4,34

4.39

91 1.JnionPaeRR IstMRR&lg4s 1947

4.11

4.15

4.18

4.20

4.26

4.38

4.42

4.47

4.35

4.42

4.38

4.44

4.44

93 ChiRock Is&PacRygenM4s 1988

4.26

4.31

4.29

4.28

4.33

4.37

4.51

4.51

4.47

4.48

4.44

4.52

4.58

94 AtchTop&SantaFegenM4sl995

4.08

4.11

4.11

4.13

4.17

4.24

4.29

4.33

4.30

4.31

4.29

4.33

4.33

95 NYCent&HudsonRiverM33'4s1997

4.06

4.09

4.11

4.12

4.15

4.21

4.33

4.36

4.31

4.34

4.35

4.41

4.37

101 Central Pacific lstrefM4s 1949

4.30

4.37

4.30

4.33

4.43

4,55

4.59

4.73

4.63

4.63

4.52

4.68

4.72

102 NorPacRypriorlientgM4s 1997

4.13

4.14

4.16

4.20

4.24

4.34

4.46

4.51

4.43

4.42

4.40

4.48

4.54

103 Norf&WestRy

Istc

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4s1996

4.10

4.12

4.12

4.14

4.18

4.24

4.34

4.43

4.33

4.32

4.30

4.36

4.39

104 Central RRofNJgenM5s 1987

4.14

4.18

4.21

4.22

4.24

4.37

.4.45

4.55

4.43

4.38

4.39

4.41

4.49

105 Hocking Valley lstconsM

1999

4.22

4.23

4.25

4.29

4.33

4.45

4.52

4.54

4.45

4.46

4.43

4.53

4.55

108 Southern Pac 1st.

refM

sf4s 1955

4.15

4.15

4.22

4.23

4.29

4.36

4.46

4.52

4.46

4.44

4.41

4.52

4.32

109 AT&SFe RyadjM4sstamped 1995

4.31

4.33

4.29

4.34

4.35

4.47

4.51

4.55

4.54

4.31

4.51

4.56

4.63

110 Northern PacRygenlien3s2047

4.24

4.24

4.25

4.29

4.30

4.40

4.56

4.60

4.55

4.56

4.53

4.48

4.53

111 AtlCoastLinelstconsM4sl9S2

4.12

4.17

4.15

4.23

4.23

4.35

4.44

4.52

4.37

4.46

4.48

4.54

4.62

114

Pennsylvania RRconsM4s 1948

4.04

4.13

4.21

4.18

4.12

4.17

4.37

4.50

4.50

4.43

4.43

4.50

4.53

117 Illinois

Cen

tral R

Rre

fM4s

195

54.13

4.16

4.18

4.20

4.24

4.27

4.41

4.57

4.44

4.46

4.41

4.46

4.55

118 Chic

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M4s

1958

4.13

4.14

4.17

4.20

4.25

4.38

4.42

4.52

4.36

4.40

4.36

4.44

4.46

119 SouthernRylstconsM5sl994

4.38

4.36

4.29

4.33

4.36

4.48

4.54

4.57

4.50

4.49

4.43

4.50

4.55

120 UnPacRRlstlien&refM4s2008

4.12

4,11

4.16

4.16

4.22

4.31

4.38

4.45

4.41

4.41

4.39

4.46

4.47

124 CanadaSo lst&ref cons5s 1962

4.45

4.45

4.46

4.44

4.50

4.57

4,55

4.59

4,69

4.62

4.59

4.71

4.65

126

4.14

4.18

4.21

4.22

4.22

4.36

4.41

4.45

4.38

4.37

4.35

4.43

4.46

II

127

Canadian Nor Ry

25yrsf

1946

4.73

4.71

4.68

4.63

4.80

4.93

4.93

5.09

5.03

5.01

4.98

5.10

5.17

k12

84.55

4.64

4.65

4.70

4.74

4.82

4.95

4.95

4.92

4.85

4.77

4.82

4.83

129 AtiCoast Linegen unified 43/2s 1964

4.34

4.36

4.37

4.38

4.42

4.50

4.47

4.66

4.59

4.56

4.56

4.66

4.64

130 Pennsylvania RRgenM4Y2s

1965

4.26

4.28

4.31

4,34

4.38

4.46

4.45

4.56

4,45

4.48

4.44

4.54

4.52

131 PennsylvaniaRRgenM5sl9ó8

4.28

4.31

4.33

4.38

4.40

4.57

4.63

4.63

4.59

4.54

4.53

4.59

4.58

132 GrtNorRygenSeriesC5sl973

4.61

4.57

4.58

4.58

4.64

4.74

4.77

4.74

4.81

4.74

4.66

4.72

4,82

133 StLouisSoWesternlstM4sl989

4.40

4.39

4.38

4.43

4.57

4.60

4.65

4.67

4.60

4.67

4.60

4.57

4.62

134 Mo-Kansas-.TexasRylstM4sl99O

4.35

4.36

4.37

4.43

4.46

4.58

4.64

4.67

4.63

4.56

4.56

4.68

4.77

135

4.36

4.35

4.34

4.41

4.44

4.51

4.52

4.58

4.63

4.54

4.52

4.54

4.58

136 CleveCin Chi&StLgenM4s 1993

4.12

4.14

4.15

4.16

4.20

4.33

4.36

4.52

4.40

4.40

4.37

4.49

4.47

137 NYCentral RRconsolM4s 1998

4.13

4.15

4.18

4.21

4.21

4.28

4,39

4.44

4.38

4.41

4.32

4.42

4.52

138 Tex&PacRylstM5s2000

4.42

4.45

4.40

4.36

4.45

4.55

4.53

4.63

4.60

4.53

4.45

4.52

4.59

139 LehighVRR(Pa)genconsM4s2003

4.33

4,37

4.40

4.39

4.41

4.48

4.52

4.57

4.54

4.37

4.51

4.57

4.61

140 Canadian PacRy4%debstock

4.39

4.42

4.41

4.41

4.47

4.53

4.58

4.58

4.59

4.54

4.53

4.62

4.71

141 SouthernRydev&genM4s 1956

4.48

4.50

4.49

4.53

4.58

4.65

4.80

4.85

4.72

4.74

4.68

4.76

4.80

142 Chic&WestIndRRconsM4sl952

4.52

4,55

4.53

4.52

4.65

4.85

4.97

4.96

4.82

4.85

4.78

4.88

4.85

143

1975

4.27

4.30'

4.31

4.37

4.44

4.54

4.67

4.70

4.63

4.60

4.49

4.57

4.58

144 Great Nor Ry

1976

4.46

4.51

4.50

4.49

4.49

4.56

4.60

4.64

4.60

4.56

4.55

4.66

4.73

145 ChiMil&StPaulRygenM4sl989

4.34

4.34

4.35

4.40

4.53

4.63

4.71

4.67

4.65

4.60

4.64

4.74

146 Er'eRRconspriorlien4s 1996

4.48

4.46

4.46

4.49

4.53

4.69

4.73

4.82

4.70

4.69

4.65

4.77

4.73

Page 102: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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4.49

4.49

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4.43

4.41

4.31

4.25

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4.11

4.21

4.11

4.17

4.17

93 ChiRockls&PacRygenM4sl988

4.55

4.56

4.47

4.50

4.47

4.45

4.40

4.31

4.24

4.23

4.30

4.44

4.28

94AtchTop&SantaFegenM4sl995

4.32

4.33

4.25

4.29

4.26

4.23

4.16

4.13

4.11

4.08

4.13

4.14

4.07

95 NYCent&HudsonRiverM3)4s 1997

4.42

4.47

4.39

4.43

4.41

4.40

4.31

4.22

4.18

4.13

4.14

4.27

4.13

101 CentralPacificlstrefM4sl949

4.60

4.63

4.52

4.50

4.45

4.47

4.41

4.31

4.25

4.25

4.39

4.48

4.28

102 Nor Pac priorlienlgM4s 1997

4.50

4.53

4.48

4.44

4.48

4.41

4.36

4.24

4.21

4.21

4.27

4.37

4.25

103Norf&WestRylstconsM4sl99ó

4.36

4.37

4.33

4.30

4.33

4.29

4.21

4.15

4.14

4.12

4.13

4,15

4.09

104 CentralRRofNJgenMSsl9S7

4.58

4.53

4.47

4.45

4.44

4.44

4.43

4.39

4.29

4.35

4.40

4.55

4.35

105 HockingValleylstconsM434sl999

4.63

4.65

4.58

4.61

4.57

4.60

4.55

4.48

4.42

4.40

4.46

4.59

4.32

108 SouthernPaclstrefMsf4sl955

4.55

4.56

4.49

4.53

4.50

4.44

4.38

4.28

4.23

4.27

4.35

4.42

4.23

109 AT&SFeRyadjM4sstamped 1995....

4.42

4.52

4.39

4.44

4.45

4.43

4.37

4.36

4.23

4.24

4.35

4.36

4.19

110 NorthernPacRygenlienss2o47

4.67

4.59

4.44

4.55

4.58

4.57

4.52

4.38

4.33

4.38

4.46

4.55

4.37

111 Ad Coast Line 1st consM4s 1952

4.53

4.57

4.48

4.58

4.49

4.36

4.31

4.27

4.24

4.27

4.32

4.59

4.26

114 PennsylvaniaRRconsM4sl948

4.48

4.61

4.42

4.41

4.47

4.43

4.30

4.21

4.15

4.12

4.22

4.27

4.13

117 IllinoisCentfalRRrefM4sl955

4.59

4.60

4.44

4.53

4.48

4.44

4.42

4.40

4.39

4.57

4.66

4.90

4.56

118 ChicBurl&QuincygenM4sl9s8

4.57

4.48

4.45

4.46

4.38

4.30

4.30

4.23

4.19

4.17

4.21

4.33

4.14

119 SouthernRylstconsM5sl994

4.61

4.62

4.53

4.56

4.54

4.55

4.49

4.47

4.45

4.56

4.66

4.68

4.54

120 tfnPacRRlstlien&refM4s2008

4.45

4.46

4.40

4.43

4.44

4.38

4.33

4.26

4.17

4.17

4.31

4.31

4.19

124 CanadaSolst&refconsssl962

4.82

4.77

4.73

4.70

4.77

4.72

4.65

4.63

4.50

4.46

4.56

4.71

4.60

126 Pennsylvania

1960

4.44

4.49

4.43

4.41

4.42

4.42

4.38

4.34

4.21

4.20

4.28

4.27

4.13

128

4.85

4.81

4.81

4.73

4.73

4.69

4.68

4.70

4.66

4.71

4.80

5.01

4.78

129 AtI Coast Linegen unified 43%s 1964

4.65

4.67

4.57

4.62

4.59

4.54

4.50

4.39

4.39

4.42

4.54

4.70

4.47

130 PennsylvaniaRRgenM44sl9ó5

4.58

4.58

4.52

4.51

4.51

4.50

4.45

4.38

4.33

4.33

4.45

4.46

4.30

131 PennsylvaniaRRgenMssl968

4.60

4.65

4.58

4.58

4.55

4.50

4.47

4.45

4.38

4.48

4.51

4.59

4.48

132 GrtNorRygenSeriesC5sl973

4.77

4.78

4.72

4.64

4.67

4.67

4.65

4.62

4.62

4.65

4.74

4.92

4.74

133 StLouisSoWestern

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4s 1

989

4.67

4.68

4.59

4.62

4.66

4.60

4.57

4.51

4.43

4.46

4.48

4.64

4.71

134Mo-Kansas-TexasRylstM4sl99O

4.67

4.69

4.62

4.62

4.61

4.59

4.59

4.48

4.43

4.48

4.51

4.56

4.48

135

4.59

4.61

4.49

4.54

4.54

4.52

.4.46

4.38

4.31

4.31

4.35

4.41

4.27

136 CleveCinChi&StLgenM4s1993

4.49

4.50

4.43

4.49

4.44

4.43

4.37

4.27

4.18

4.22

4.29

4.39

4.21

137 NYCentralRRconsolM4sl99S

4.50

4,54

4.44

4.40

4.39

4.38

4.35

4.26

4.18

4.17

4.19

4.34

4.17

138 Tex&PacRylstMSs2000

4.65

4.63

4.59

4.57

4.53

4.55

4.53

4.46

4.45

4.51

4.58

4.71

4.48

139 Lehigh.VRR(Pa)genconsM4s2003

4.54

4.59

4.49

4.52

4.50

4.51

4.47

4.37

4.33

4.36

4.52

4.79

4.58

140 Canadian Pac Ry4% deb stock

4.71

4.76

4.64

4.66

4.63

4.56

4.50

4.45

4.46

4.48

4.51

4.58

4.54

141 SouthernRydev&genM4sl9S6

4.71

4.70

4.59

4.65

4.60

4.68

4.68

4.70

4.68

4.83

5.05

5.16

4.95

142 Chic&WestIndRRconsM4sI9S2

4.95

5.01

4.79

4.81

4.79

4.78

4.72

4.57

4.51

4.62

4,74

5.08

4.77

143 PittsCinChi&StLgenM5sl975

4.63

4.64

4.58

4.56

4.54

4.52

4.52

4.45

4.43

4.46

4.56

4.63

4.50

144 Great Nor Ry

1976

4.68

4.71

4.66

4.63

4.61

4.63

4.56

4.53

4.47

4.54

4.62

4.71

4.57

145 ChiMil&StPaulRygenM4sl989

4.70

4.79

4.69

4.74

4.72

4.70

4.75

4.71

4.65

4.71

4.79

5.01

4.79

146 ErieRRcons.priorlien4sl99ó

4.66

4.66

4.65

4.71

4.64

4.61

4.62

4.67

4.53

4.56

4.76

4.91

4.66

Page 104: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

JAN

. 193

1—JA

N. 1

932

Ref

.N

o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pr.

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

ptO

ct.

Nov

.D

ec.

Jan.

70WestShoreRRjstM4s236t

4.32

4.34

4.35

4.35

4.33

4.35

4.36

4.54

4.76

4.80

5.08

5.76

5.63

88

4.13

4.14

4.14

4.17

4.11

4.19

4.15

4.34

4.30

4.61

4.73

4.96

4.86

91 UnionPacRRlstMRR&1g4s1941

4.17

4.02

4.09

4.08

3.92

3.93

3.89

3.94

4.08

4.50

4.50

5.02

4.91

93 Chi Rock Is&PacRygenM4s 1988

4.28

4.35

4.32

4.45

4.40

4.58

4.50

4.60

4.86

5.20

.5.33

6.12

5.52

94

4.07

4.05

4.06

4.03

4.00

4.01

4.01

4.02

4.15

4.36

4.43

4.73

4.65

95 NYCent&Hudson RiverM334s

1997

4.13

4.15

4.15

4.18

4.14

4.18

4.22

4.31

4.33

4.68

4.79

5.01

101 CentralPacificlstrefM4sl949

4.28

4.30

4.26

4.27

4.17

4.21

4.14

4.20

4.45

5.07

5.45

6.08

5.95

102 NorPacRypriorlienlgM4sl997

4.25

4.28

4.27

4.33

4.29

4.26

4.27

4.42

4.46

4.85

4.92

5.25

5.11

103 Norf&WestRylstconsM4sj9ço

4.09

4.10

4.09 .4.05

4.01

4.00

4.01

4.01

4.12

4.32

4.37

4.57

4.57

.1

104 CentralRRofNJgen.M5s1987

4.35

4.35

4.35

4.36

4.32

4.35

4.36

4.51

4.62

4.79

4.90

4.71

5.34

t'

105

Hocking Valley 1st cons

M1999

4.32

4.34

4.32

4.33

4.27

4.32

4.31

4.38

4.67

5.14

5.05

5.35

5.44

108

Southern Pac lstrefM sf4s 1955

4.23

4.24

4.25

4.27

4.18

4.24

4.24

4.43

4.60

5.11

5.13

5.69

5.59

109 AT&SFeRyadjM4sstamped 1995

4.19

4.20

4.21

4.24

4.15

4.17

4.13

4.19

4.42

4.69

4.91

5.22

4.99

110 Northern Pac Ry gen lien 3s 2047

4.37

4.44

4.43

4.51

4.53

4.44

4.45

4.62

4.86

5.12

5.14

5.74

5.38

111 AtiCoast Line lstconsM4s 1952

4.26

4.27

4.24

4.31

4.22

4.28

4.20

4.25

4.33

4.80

5.07

5.85

5.88

114 PennsylvaniaRRconsM4sl948

4.13

4.09

4.13

4.07

4.00

4.04

4.03

4.02

4.22

4.70

473

5.08

4.85

.118 Chic BurI&Quincy genM4s 1958

4.14

4.14

4.14

4.16

4.06

4.03

4.05

4.13

4.33

4.58

4.69

4.98

4.96

Q11

9Southern

Ry1st consM5s 1994

4.54

4.56

4.53

4.63

4.65

4.64

4.6S

4.75

4.99

5.34

5.51

6.76

6.07

120 Un Pac RR 1st lien & ref M 4s 2008

4.19

4.21

4.20

4.23

4.13

4.13

4.13

4.16

4.37

4.70

4.79

5.33

5.24

124 Canada So lst.&ref conaSs

1962

4.60

4.55

4.52

4.58

4.55

4.58

4.58

4.62

4.87.

5.37

5.24

6.79

6.38

126 Pennsylvania

1960

4.13

4.15

4.16

4.12

4.11

4.13

4.17

4.24

4.33

4.56

4.73

4.94

5.02

128 Grt Nor Rygen Series

1952

4.78

4.80

4.76

4.75

4.81

4.88

5.38

6.10

6.49

6.69

8.17

7.55

129

At! Coast Line genunified

1964

4.47

4.53

4.50

4.52

4.46

4.47

4.49

4.44

4.59

4.73

5.89

5.97

6.07

130 Pennsylvania

1965

4.30

4.37

4.39

4.44

4.39

4.43

4.42

4.36

4.72

5.21

5.38

6.36

5.60

131 PennsylvaniaRRgenMss

1968

4.48

4.45

4.46

4.51

4.47

4.52

4.52

4.64

5.05

5.10

5.23

5.95

5.61

132 GrtNorRygenSeriesC5sl973

4.74

4.68

4.69

4.78

4.72

4.86

4.88

5.35

5.85

6.78

6.26

7.14

6.83

133

1989

4.71

4.71

4.68

4.90

5.21

5.36

5.28

5.44

5.44

6.77

6.82

7.70

6.60

134 Mo-Kansas-TexasRy lstM4s 1990

4.48

4.44

4.44

4.53

4.56

4.58

4.5S

4.63

4.91

3.41

5.31

5.58

5.24

135

4.27

4.28

4.26

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.21

4.22

4.41

4.73

4.79

5.31

5.03

136 CleveCinChj&StLgenM4s 1993

4.21

4.25

4.23

4.31

4.25

4.31

4.35

4.47

4.62

5.00

5.16

5.59

5.59

137

NV Central RRconsolM4s 1998

4.17

4.16

4.19

4.27

4.25

4.28

4.27

4,45

4.62

4.86

5.08

5.90

5.87

138 Tex&PacRylstM5s2000

4.48

4.45

4.48

4.51

4.54

4.61

4.60

4.82

4.87

5.16

5.16

5.81

5.87

139 LehighVRR(Pa)genconsM4s2cjo3

4.58

4.54

4.63

4.70

4.70

4.70

4.66

4.94

5.45

6.29

6.32

7.88

7.72

140 CanadianPacRy4%debstock

4.54

4.59

4.56

4.54

4.53

4.62

4.73

4.85

5.70

6.34

5.82

6.52

6.52

142 Chi&WestIndRRconsM4sl952

4.77

4.74

4.68

4.69

4.72

4.76

4.67

5.00

5.49

5.96

6.36

7.41

6.55

143 PittsCinChi&StLgenMSsl97S

4.50

4.53

4.51

4.55

4.52

4.57

4.54

4.88

4.90

5.09

5.19

5.65

5.54

144 Great NorRy genM4Y2s 1976

4.57

4.56

4.57

4.69

4.63

4.66

4.77

5.09

5.78

6.37

6.15

7.40

6.63

145

4.79

4.68

4.71

5.05

4.93

4.90

4.90

4.97

5.34

6.07

6.46

7.42

6.58

146 Erie RR cons priorlien 4s 1996

4.66

4.70

4.58

4.61

4.60

4.60

4.64

4.58

4.90

5.54

5.71

6.73

5.89

Page 105: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

Jan.

193

2—Ja

n. 1

933

Ref

.N

o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pr.

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec

.Ja

n.

7oW

estS

hore

RR

lst.M

4s23

615.63

5.52

5.44

5.93

5.82

5.84

5.80

5.38

5.25

5.33

5.59

5.84

5.52

88 LakeSh&MichSolstM3Y2sl997

4.86

4.89

4.78

4.81

4.94

5.10

4.96

4.74

4.62

4.55

4.71

4.78

4.50

94 AtchTop&SantaFegenM4s 1995

4.65

4.70

4.56

4.77

5.06

5.04

4.79

4.50

4.34

4.35

4.42

4.32

4.20

95

4.94

4.92

4.84

4.98

4.98

5.00

5.01

4.67

4.34

4.69

4.89

4.81

4.55

101 Central

Paci

fic ls

trefM

4s 1

949

5.95

6.00

5.72

6.66

8.36

8.57

7.06

5.72

5.39

5.57

5.84

6.08

5.62

102 NorPacRypriorlienlgM4s 1997

5.11

5.16

5.14

5.43

5.62

5.63

5.15

4.85

4.79

4.85

4.96

4.93

4.74

103 Norf&WestRylstconsM4sl996

4.57

4.71

4.49

4.68

4.76

4.84

4.64

4.33

4.25

4.24

4.27

4.13

4.06

104 CentraIRRofNJgenMSsl98l

5.34

5.52

5.46

6.28

6.47

6.38

6.34

5.63

5.37

5.46

.5.41

5.46

5.41

105 Hocking Valley

1999

5.44

5.28

5.01

5.42

6.54

6.01

5.77

5.17

4.95

4.94

5.02

5.08

4.67

108 Southern Pac tat ref M sf4s 1955

5.59

5.75

5.48

6.28

7.66

7.73

6.83

5.80

5.48

5.64

5.99

6.28

5.98

109 AT&SFeRyadjM 4sstamped 1995

4.99

5.23

4.95

5.18

5.61

5.74

5.22

4.90

4.84

4.88

4.94

4.89

4.68

110 NorthernPacRygenlien3s2o47

5.38

5.13

5.13

5.45

5.74

5.71

5.28

4.89

4.95

4.86

5.02

5.38

5.11

114 PennsylvaniaRRconsM4sl948

4.85

4.92

5.01

5.10

5.15

5.25

5.06

4.49

4,66

4.52

4.61

4.31

4.08

118 Chic Burl&Quincy genM4s 1958

4.96

5.11

4.93

5.12

5.25

5.48

5.14

4.75

4.61

4.69

4.77

4.78

4.59

120 UnPacRRlstlien&refM4s2008

5.24

5.07

4.95

5.30

5.40

5.45

5.14

4.82

4.67

4.69

4.82

4.80

4.44

124

Canada So lst&refcons5s 1962

6.38

6.28

5.93

6.45

6.69

6.76

7.01

6.28

5.82

5;80

5.97

6,50

6.23

126

5.02

5.00

4.79

4.96

4.97

5.20

5.06

4.78

4.66

4.63

4.57

4.46

4.29

130 PennsylvaniaRR

1965

5.60

5.87

5.91

6.45

7.76

7.81

6.75

5.98

5.62

5.71

5.87

5.91

5.51

131 PennsylvaniaRRgenM5s 1968

5.61

5.72

5.83

6.33

7.56

7.96

6.76

5.91

5.51

5.63

5.81

5.95

5.56

133 StLouisSoWesternlstM4s

1989

6.60

6.34

6.41

6.95

7.82

7.88

7.08

5.79

6.10

6.12

6.07

6.68

6.66

134 Mo-Kansas-Texas Ry 1st M 4s 1990

5.24

5.41

5.56

5.81

6.54

6.53

5.80

5.28

5.31

5.28

5.40

5.48

5.11

135 Ches&OhioRygenM44Sl992

5.03

5.10

5.16

5.27

5.73

5.86

5.30

4.90

4.73

4.72

4.74

4.65

4.42

136 CleveCin Chi&StLgenM4s 1993

5.59

5.87

5.54

5.79

5.78

6.26

6.25

5.64

5.34

5.32

5.37

5.41

5.44

137NVCentralRRconsolM4sl998

5.87

5.54

5.46

5.90

6.18

6.59

6.55

5.56

5.41

5.76

6.39

6.88

6.24

138 Tex&PacRylstMSs2000

5.87

5.60

5.70

6.38

6.07

6.01

5.94

5.80

5.49

5.60

5.70

5.90

5.24

140 CanadianPacRy4%debstock

6.52

6.67

6.15

6.61

7.51

7.65

6.82

5.78

5.67

.,..S.68

6.08

6.18

6.15

143

5.54

5.75

5.54

6.30

6.99

8.29

7.42

5.73

5.72

5.76

5.83

5.90

5.80

146 Erie RRconspriorlien 4s 1996

5.89

5.62

6.03

6.60

6.59

7.08

6.15

5.53

5.33

5.41

5.49

6.00

5.58

147 Pennsylv'ania

1981

5.83

5.98

5.89

6.14

7.45

7.76

6.69

5.77

5.57

5.64

5.80

6.07

5.50

148 Chicago& Erie lstSs

1982

6.29

6.07

5.97

6.15

6.40

6.33

6.32

5.98

5.63

5.60

5.56

5.58

5.45

149 C&O(Rich&AIIDIv)13t431989....

5.23

5.14

5.03

5.17

5.39

5.40

5.35

4.94

4.93

4.68

4.52

4.57

4.31

150 CC C&StL(StLDiv) lst4s 1990..

6.25

5.98

5.55

5.60

5.72

6.06

6.i0

5.98

5.57

5.36

5.40

5.40

5.42

Page 106: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

Jan.

193

3—Ja

n. 1

934

Ref

.N

o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

.Feb.

Mar

.A

pr.

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oc

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

70WestShoreRRlstM4s236l

5.52

5.30

5.45

5.73

5,42

5.11

4.88

4.75

4.89

4.93

5.48

5.67

5.37

88 Lake Sh&Mich So

1997

4.50

4.47

4.61

4.76

4.53

4.53

4.27

4.18

4.19

4.39

4.31

4.40

4.23

94

4.20

4.36

4.45

4.68

4.50

4.31

4.22

4.17

4.33

4.27

4.56

4.40

4.23

95 NY Cent & Hudson River M 334s

1997

4.55

4.59

4.73

4.98

4.80

4.60

4.39

4.28

4.39

4.34

4.55

4.56

4.34

101 CentralPacific

lstre

fM4s

194

95.62

6.29

6.92

7.46

6.43

5.73

5.28

5.41

6.13

6.27

7.26

6.72

5.80

102 NorpacRypriorlienlgM4s 1997

4.74

4.81

4.97

5.25

5.13

4.78

4.62

4.63

4.85

4.86

5.10

5.02

4.67

103Norf&WestRylstconsM4sl996

4.06

4.18

4.39

4.45

4.23

4.06

4.13

4.04

4.13

4.08

4.24

4.15

4.01

104 CentralRRofNJgenM5s 1987

5.41

5.45

5.72

6.04

5.65

5.23

5.05

4.95

5.03

5.12

5.37

5.40

5.08

105 Hocking Valley

1999

4.67

4.65

5.14

3.17

4.88

4.69

4.55

4.52

4.63

4.58

4.75

4.70

4.52

108 Southern

PaclstrefMsf 4s1955

5.98

6.33

7.14

7.18

6.58

6.03

5.50

5.62

6.42

6.48

7.21

6.99

5.99

109 AT&SFe RyâdjM4sstamped 1995

4.68

4.71

4.93

3.09

4.97

4.67

4.61

4.55

4.67

4.67

5.03

4.96

4.63

110 NorthernPacRygenhieri3s204l

5.11

5.27

5.48

5.94

5.31

4.98

5.05

5.04

5.29

5.22

5.64

5.22

4.81

118 Chic BurI&Quincy genM4s 1958

4.59

4.67

4.74

5.32

4.88

4.78

4.45

4.43

4.54

4.59

4.91

4.66

4.36

120 UnPacRRlstlien&refM4s200S

4.44

4.57

4.79

4.82

4.85

4.58

4.50

4.34

4.53

4.44

4.73

4.59

4.35

124 CanadaSo

lst&

refC

OUS

5s1962

6.23

6.10

6.35

6.54

6.36

5.90

5.38

5.39

5.65

5.74

6.20

5.87

5.31

012

6PennsylvaniaRRconsM434s 1960

4.29

4.36

4.58

4.71

4.50

4.28

4.30

4.23

4.37

4.28

4.42

4.3Q

4.22

130 PennsylvaniaRR

1965

5.51

5.54

5.86

6.20

5.64

5.28

4.94

4.91

5.22

5.20

5.60

5.38

5.03

131 PennsylvaniaRRgenM5sl9ó8

5.56

5.48

6.04

6.06

5.66

5.31

5.08

5.02

5.14

5.13

5.49

5.22

5.02

133 StLouisSoWestern lstM4s 1989

6.66

6.98

7.38

7.72

7.06

6.48

6.15

5.80

6.31

6.64

7.50

6.89

5.90

134 Mo_Kansas.TexasRYlStM4Sl99O

5.11

5.00

5.27

5.69

5.28

4.70

4.65

4.83

5.32

5.11

5.63

5.42

4.92

p.—

135

4.42

4.54

4.73

5.00

4.51

4.40

4.37

4.37

4.49

4.44

4.67

4.56

4.41

136 Cleve Cm

Chi & St L gen M 481993

5.44

5.35

5.41

5.88

5.39

5.30

4.94

4.87

5.04

5.27

5.88

5.60

5.05

137 NY Central RRconsolM4s 1998

6.24

6.16

6.45

6.70

5.90

5.31

4.98

4.95

5.27

5.34

5.76

5.72

5.12

138 Tex&PacRylstM5S2000

5.24

5.29

5.51

5.61

5.48

5.20

5.06

.5.0

45.

285.

345.

775.

745.24

140

Can

adia

npac

Ry4

%de

bsto

ck6.15

7.27

7.62

7.45

6.40

5.99

6.04

6.06

6.71

6.38

6.98

6.75

5.87

143

5.80

5.96

6.29

6.86

6.05

5.52

5.20

5.07

5.18

5.34

5.64

5.54

5.20

146 ErieRRconspriorlien4Sl996

5.58

5.49

5.72

5.81

5.17

4.86

4.81

4.95

5.17

5.14

5.56

3.28

4.90

147

5.50

5.53

5.94

6.09

560

5.23

4.90

4.93

5.21

5.14

5.47

5.36

4.99

148 Chicago&Erie lst5s 1982

5.45

5.47

5.67 .5.72

5.64

5.50

5.1.4

5.06

5.30

5.36

5.78

5.60

5.26

149 C&O(Rich&AUDiv)

1989

4.31

4.36

4.79

4.78

4.57

4.33

4.17

4.06

4.02

4.27

4.40

4.37

4.06

150 CCC&StL(StLDiv)1st4s1990

5.42

5.50

5.82

6.07

5.50

5.41

5.44

5.31

5.27

5.42

5.80

5.82

5.18

Page 107: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

I. 0

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

Jan.

193

4—Ja

n. 1

933

Ref

.N

o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb

Mar

.A

pr.

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec

.Ja

n.

70WestShoreRRjstM4s23ól

5,37

4.95

4.80

4.76

4.73

4.72

4.75

4.93

5.09

4.88

4.87

4.80

4.75

884.23

4.04

3.95

3.91

3.81

3.64

3.73

3.84

3.85

3.78

3.70

3.62

3.37

94 AtchTop&Santa FegenM4s 1995

4.23

4.09

4.01

3.95

3.95

.3.88

3.82

3.90

3.96

3.88

3.82

3.74

3.67

95

4.34

4.08

3.99

3.85

3.73

3.81

3.95

4.01

3.91

3.82

3.72

3.65

102 NorPacRypriorlienlgM4s 1997

4.67

4.35

4.20

4.13

4.10

4.06

4.06

4.20

4.23

4.12

4.04

:3.96

3.86

103 Norf&WestRy lstconsM4s 1996

4.01

3.93

3.91

3.85

3.78

3.75

3.73

3.76

3.83

3.79

3.68

3.62

3.55

104

Central RRofNJgenM5s 1987

5.08

4.82

4.81

4.76

4.66

4.60

4.61

4.71

4.87

4.85

4.75

4.67

4.60

105 Hooking Valley 1st

1999....

4.52

4.39

4.29

4.28

4.22

4.14

4.09

4.08

4.20

4.15

4.08

4.00

3.93

108 SouthernPaclstrefMsf4sl955

5.99

5.05

4.99

4.92

4.83

4.88

4.86

5.14

5.37

5.05

4.89

4,74

4.53

109

AT&

SFeR

yadj

M4s

stam

ped

1995...

4.63

4.33

4.26

4.22

4.26

4.12

4.06

4.18

4.30

4.14

4.02

3.93

3.90

110 NorthernPacRygenljen3g2Q4l

4.81

4.55

4.49

4.36

4.43

4.40

4.39

4.62

4.64

4.49

4.35

4.22

4.03

118

ChicBurl&QuincygenM4sl9s8....

4.36

4.14

4.04

3.90

3.84

3.79

3.77

3.78

.3.95

3.80

3.71

3.61

3.51

120 UnPacRRlstljen&tefM4g2008....

4.35

4.19

4.13

4.03

4.03

3.98

3.92

3.97

4.06

4.00

3.92

3.86

3.77

124 Canada So lst&ref cons5s 1962

.5.31

4.97

4.95

4.70

4.78

4.62

4.46

4.54

4.71

4.65

4.48

4,46

4.38

126 Pennsylvania

1960

4.22

4.16

4.09

4.03

3.95

3.86

3.83

3.89

3.98

3.84

3.77

3.69

3.56

130 Pennsylvania RR genM4j4s 1965

5.03

4.69

4.56

4.46

4.39

4.34

4.37

4.44

4.51

4.44

4.33

4.23

4.11

k13

1PennsylvaniaRRgenMssl968

5.02

4.79

4.73

4.66

4.62

4.50

4.48

4.61

4.65

4.56

4.50

4.42

4.32

135

4.41

4.24

4.19

4.17

4.12

4.06

4.03

'4.05

4.09

4.07

3.99

3.91

3.81

136 CteveCinChi&StLgenM4sl993...

5.05

4.54

4.46

4.28

4.34

4.23

4.21

4.38

4.67

4.47

4.34

4.24

4.04

137 NYCentralRRconsolM4sl998

5.12

4.69

4.59

4.57

4.60

4.62

4.61

4.79

4.96

4.88

4.81

4.71

4.66

138 Tex&PacRylstMSs2000

.5.

244.90

4.79

4.72

4.63

4.59

4.52

4.55

4.61

4.59

4.50

4.37

4.25

140

Can

adia

nPac

Ry4

%de

bsto

ck5.87

3.25

5.11

4.99

4.88

4.84

4.84

5.03

5.22

5.00

4.87

4.69

4.64

143 PittsCinChi&StLgenM5s 1975

5.20

4.91

4.74

4.69

4.65

4.54

4.52

4.60

4.66

4.60

4.54

4.46

4.30

146 ErieRRconspriorlien4sl996

4.90

4.65

4.53

4.41

4.28

4.27

4.20

4.42

4.38

4.25

4.20

4.14

4.05

147 PennsylvaniaRRgenM43.(s1981...

4.69

4.54

4.48

4.44

4.38

4.39

4.54

4.55

4.46

4.39

4.29

4.17

148 Chicago&ErielstSsl982

5.26

4.93

4.84

4.68

4.64

4.61

4.50

4.56

4.62

4.50

4.52

4.46

4.37

149 C&O(Rich&AllDiv) lst4s 1989

.4.

064.05

3.98

3.97

3.92

3.86

3,87

3.90

3.96

3.92

3.85

3.80

3.78

150 CCC&StL(StLDiv) lst4s 1990

4.86

4.56

4.52

4.37

4.33

4.29

4.46

4.55

4.66

4.57

4.41

4.35

Page 108: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIE

LDS

OF

RA

ILR

OA

D B

ON

DS

Jan.

193

5—Ja

n. 1

936

Ref

.N

o.N

ame

of B

ond

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.A

pr.

May

June

July

Aug

.Se

pt.

Oct

.N

ov.

Dec

.Ja

n.70

West Shore RR lstM4s 2361

4.75

4.72

5.01

5.18

4.99

5.00

4.85

4.87

4.96

4.99

5.04

4.82

4.53

LakeSh&MichSolstM3.4s1997

3.57

3.50

3.52

3.52

3.50

3.46

3.44

3.51

3.53

3.55

3.55

3.61

3.45

94AtchTop&Santa FegenM4s 1995

3.67

3.62

3.63

3.64

3.64

3.62

3.58

3.64

3.63

3.67

3.66

3.61

3.54

95

3.65. 3.59

3.71.

3.72

3.74

3.67

3.63

3.72

3.73

3.74

3.73

3.65

3.54

102 NorPacRypriorlienlgM4sl99l

3.86

3.82

3.85

3.88

3.87

3.83

3.79

.3.90

3.91

3.92

3.91

3.85

3.76

103Norf&WestRylstconsM4sl996

3.55

3.48

3.47

3.46

3.42

3.40

3.40

3.43

3.42

3.44

3.44

3.42

3.36

104

Central RRofNJgenMSs 1987

4.60

4.6(

4.79

4.86

4.80

4.82

4.88

4.93

4.92

4.92

4.96

5.06

4.96

105 Hocking Valley 1st cons M

1999

3.93

3.86

3.88

3.85

3.87

3.81

3.80

3.81

3.86

3.88

3.89

3.84

3.78

108 Southern

Pac

1st r

ef M

sf 4

s 195

54.

534.39

4.60

4.61

4.43

4.29

4.13

4.23

4.20

4.26

4.19

4.10

3.90

109 AT&SFeRyadjM4sstampedl995

3.90

3.82

3.80

3.86

3.87

3.83

3.79

3.85

3.88

3.87

3.85

3.82

3.74

110

NorthernP3cRygen1ien3s2047

4.03

4.04

4.11

4.19

4.09

4.01

4.06

4.18

4.19

4.26

4.31

4.12

3.96

118 Chic Burl&Quincy genM4s 1958

3.51

3.46

3.44

3.45

3.52

3.52

3.51

3.55

3.60

3.68

3.60

3.50

3.44

120

Un PacRR 1st lien&refM4s 2008

3.77

3.73

3.72

3.74

3.74

3.72

3.72

3.75

3.76

3.80

3.79

3.73

3.66

124 CanadaSolst&refcons5sl962

.4.

384.

344.

394.48

4.43

4.35

4.28

4.21

4.34

4.45

4.41

4.34

4.18

Q12

6P

enns

ylva

nia

RR

con

s M

1960

3.56

3.46

3.47

3.50

3.50

3.49

3.41

3.49

3.50

3.49

3.43

3.40

3.36

130

4.11

4.09

4.12

4.14

4.11

4.05

4.01

4.06

4.09

4.09

4.05

3.99

3.92

131 PennsylvartiaRRgenM5sl9ó8

4.32

4.21

4.31

4.34

4.26

4.22

4.15

4.23

4,29

4.29

4.22

4.16

4.05

135

3.81

3.73

3.73

3.74

3.77

3.76

3.14

3.79

3.81

3.71

3.70

3.69

3.65

136CleveCinChi&StLgenM4sl993

4.04

4.01

4.23

4.36

4.21

4.23

4.12

4.14

4.18

4.23

4.33

4.17

4.07

137 NYCentrat RRconsolM4s 1998

4.66

4.79

5.17

5.23

4.94

4.86

4.70

4.77

4.73

4.74

4.84

4.64

4.34

138 Tex&PacRylstMSs2000

4.25

4.17

4.24

4.34

4.29

4.26

4.22

4.32

4.33

4.34

4.32

4.27

4.18

140 Canadian Pac Ry 4% deb stock

4.64

4.63

4.74

4.75

4.60

4.55

4.56

4.55

4.73

4.80

4.74

4.64

4.50

143 PittsCinChi&StLgenM5sl97S

4.30

4.23

4.27

4.31

4.29

4.28

4.22

4.26

4.33

4.34

4.31

4.24

4.13

146 ErieRRconspriorlien4s 1996

4.05

4.01

3.99

4.06

4.01

4.01

3.95

4.04

4.08

4.12

4.14

4.08

3.96

147

4.17

4.10

4.10

4.11

4.06

3.99

.3.95

4.01

4.09

4.08

4.05

4.00

3.95

148

Chicago&Erie lst5s 1982

4.37

4.24

4.28

4.32

4.29

4.27

4.21

4.28

4.25

4.28

4.27

4.23

4.20

149 C&O(Rich&AIl Dlv) lst4s 1989

3.78

3.55

3.53

3.51

3.49

3.55

3.53

3.53

3.56

3.58

3.51

3.50

3.49

150 CCC&StL(SLLDiv) lst4s 1990

4.35

4.26

4.45

4.37

4.29

4.26

4.32

4.22

4.34

4.51

4.48

4.36

4.10

Page 109: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A108 APPENDIX

TABLE 4

AMERICAN RAILROAD BOND YIELDS,JANUARY INDEX NUMBERS

1. An unadjusted chain index number based on simple geometricaverages of the yields each January.

2. An unadjusted chain index number based on simple arithmeticaverages of the yields each January.

In both the index numbers (geometric and arithmetic), the chainingis backwards and forwards from January 1925. In each case the indexnumber for January 1925 is the average (geometric or arithmetic) of theyields in January 1925 of the bonds used from January 1924 to January1925.

Date(1)

GeometricIndex

(2)Arithmetic

Index

% %January 1857 9.517 9.644

1858 10.204 10.3761859 8.7761860 8.788 8.9201861 8.662 8.7811862 8.412 8.5131863 6.136 6.1891864 6.658 6.7021865 6.867 6.908

" 1866 8 108 8 143" 1867 7 786 7 822

1868 7 822 7 8591869 7 992 8 0361870 8 215 8 263

4C 1871 7 849 7 8901872 7.527 7.5621873 7 624 7 6581874 7.649 7.6851875 7.213 7.2551876 6.753 6.7951877 6 564 6 6071878 6 506 6 5431879 6 157 6 188". 1880 5.797 5.8241881 5.169 5.1941882 5.213 5.2421883 5.182 5.2051884 5.123 5.1491885 5.049 5.076

" 1886 4.620 4.6431887 4.543 4.5641888 4.621 4.6431889 4.473 4.4991890 4.451 4.472

Page 110: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A109

TABLE 4—i- (Concluded)

Date(1)

GeometricIndex

(2)Arithmetic

Index

% %January 1891 4.600 4.622

1892 4..557 4.5771893 4.510 4.5311894 4.525 4.5471895 4.288 4.3101896 4.308 4.3311897 4.200 4.2221898 3 976 3 9961899 3 841 3 8591900 3903 39231901 3806 3:8241902 3.795 3.810

" 1903 3 905 3 9181904 4.023 4.0351905 3 874 3.8851906 3:902 3.9121907.. 4 056 4.0651908 4:302 4.3161909 4 049 4.0581910 4:108 4.116

" 1911 4.167 4.1741912 4.179 4.1871913 4.269 4.2761914 4 442 4.451

" 1915 4586 4.5951916 4468 4.476

" 1917 4.367 4.3761918 5 202 5.2151919 5.070 5.077

" 1920 5 506 5.5171921 5.573 5.5841922 5.002 5.0111923 4.853 4.857

" 1924 4.945 4.9491925 4.774 4.776

" 1926 4.643 4.645" 1927 4.451 4.454

1928 4.184 4.1871929 4.500 4.5011930 4,503 4.5041931 4.315 4.3221932 5.591 5.6371933 5 222 5.290

" 1934 4944 4.9971935 4171 4.2091936 4:008 4.047

Page 111: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

AiiO APPENDIX

TABLE 5

AMERICAN RAILROAD BOND YIELDS, Six INDEX NUMBERS OF BEST 5AND WORST 5 BONDS

In this table are six index numbers for the yields of American rail-road bonds annually (each January). These six index numbers fall intotwo groups of three each; one group based on operations performed onthe 'best five bonds' each year and the other group based on operationsperformed on the 'worst five bonds' each year.

The index number in column 1 was constructed in the followingmanner: Out of the total number of bonds whose yields were used in ourmonthly index numbers from January 1857 to January 1858 there wereselected the five bonds having the lowest yields in January 1857. Theaverage of the yields of this particular group of five bonds was then cal-culated for January 1857 and the average of the yields of the same fivebonds calculated for January 1858. The percentage change in thisaverage from January 1857 to January 1858 was then taken as the per-centage change in the index number of column 1 from January 1857 toJanuary 1858. For the next year the five bonds having the lowest yieldsin January 1858 were chosen and the same procedure repeated. Suchannual percentage changes were then 'chained' to make the index incolumn 1.

Column 2 was constructed as follows: Out of the total number ofbonds whose yields were used in our monthly index numbers for theperiod January 1857 to January 1858 there were selected the five bondshaving the lowest yields in January 1858. The average of the yields ofthis particular group of five bonds was then calculated for January 1857and the average of the yields of the same group calculated for January1858. The percentage change in this average was then taken as the per-centage change in the index number of column 2 from January 1857 toJanuary 1858. Succeeding years were calculated in the same manner.Annual percentage changes were then 'chained' to make the index incolumn 2.

Column 3 was constructed by selecting from the total number ofbonds used in the monthly' index numbers from January 1857 to January1858 the five bonds having the lowest yields in January 1857 and also thefive bonds having the lowest yields in January 1858 without any con-sideration as to whether these two groups (of five bonds each) were orwere not composed of the same five bonds. The percentage that theaverage yield of the January 1858 group of five bonds was of the averageyield of the January 1857 group of five bonds was then taken as thepercentage that the January 1858 index figure in column 3 was of theJanuary 1857 index figure in the same column. Percentages were chainedtogether as in columns 1 and 2.

The construction of columns 4, 5 and 6 can be easily understood fromthe preceding explanation, remembering simply that in each case thebonds chosen were those having the highest yields instead of the lowestyields.

Page 112: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS AlliEach of the six index numbers was 'chained' backward from Jan-

uary 1936. The three index numbers based on the yields of the 'bestfive bonds' show, therefore, the same yield in January 1936 as the averageof the yields of the best five bonds in January 1936. Similarly, the threeindex numbers based on the yields of the 'worst five bonds' show inJanuary 1936 the same yield as the average of the yields of the worst fivebonds in that month.

All averaging was geometric.

Six index numbers, three based on the 5 bonds each year having thelowest yields and three based on the 5 bonds each year having the highestyields.

Best 5 Bonds . Worst 5 Bonds

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Earlier Later Either Earlier Later Either

January January January January January January

Jan. 1857 4.35 13.65 7.63 20.33 6.02 11.151858 4.59 14.00 7:98 22.36 6.64 12.28

" 1859 4.15 12.31 7.14 17.90 5.52 9.99" 1860 4,16 11.98 6.94 18.55 5.82 10.38" 1861 4.12 11.78 6.86 17.87 5.72 10.11" 1862 4.11 11.70 6.82 17.19 5.59 9.78" 1863 3.11 8.78 5.12 12.19 4.00 7.00" 1864 3.50 9.79 5.73 12.72 4.21 7.36" 1865 3.58 9.82 5.76 12.62 4.38 7.43" 1866 4.51 11.64 7.13 14.07 5.15 8.53" 1867 4.36 11.03 6.83 13.49 5.04 8.29" 1868 4.42 11.10 6.92 13.53 5.05 8.31" 1869 4.48 11.09 6.95 13.85 5.27 8.59

1870 4.57 11.18 7.05 14.05 5.41 8.80" 1871 4.51 10.66 8.90 13.10 5.21 8.35" 1872 4.43 10.07 6.66 12.29 5.10 8.02

1873 4.52 10.26 6.79 12.46 5.17 8.13" 1874 4.50 10.11 6.71 12.55 5.21 8.19

1875 4.26 9.16 6.22 12.13 5.03 7.911876 3.97 8.46 5.78 11.32 4.70 7.39

" 1877 3.94 7.90 .5.52 10.92 4.53 7.13" 1878 3.98 7.90 5.55 10.65 4.47 6.98

1879 3.82 7.51 5.30 9.89 4.19 6.50" 1880 3.62 7.11 5.02 9.22 3.97 6.12" 1881 3.23 6.30 4.48 8.23 3.59 5.49" 1882 .3.26 6.22 4.45 8.41 3.69 5.62" 1883 3.34 6.24 4.53 8.06 3.59 5.40

1884 3.28 6.06 4.41 7.99 3.57 5.361885 5.80 . 4.29 7.85 3.53 5.28

" 1886 3.01 5.31 3.94 7.03 3.24 4.78" 1887 2.99 5.27 3.92 6.82 3.17 4.65

1888 3.06 5.40 4.01 6.96 3.27 4.78

Page 113: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A112 APPENDIX

TABLE 5— (Concluded)

Best 5 Bonds Worst 5 Bonds

(1)EarlierJanuary

(2)Later

January

(3)Either

January

(4)Earlier

January

(5)Later

January

(6)Either

January

Jan.,,,,,,,,

,,

,,

,,

,,

,,1,

,,

I,

,,

,,

,,I,,,

,,

,,

,,,,

,,

,,

,,,,

,,,,

1889189018911892189318941895189618971898189919001901190219031904190519061907190819091910191119121913191419151916.191719181919192019211922

1924192519261927192819291930193119321933193419351936

2.923.003.163.133.103.112.962.942.902.792.722.742.722.742.913.073.023.093.233.403.273.353.403.423.493.623.693.623.554.244.314.634.754.324.274.354.314.254.123.914.224.223.984.624.144.07.3.3.42

5.065.055.255.135.085.044.754.704.604.324.064.054.023.984.154.354.234.26

.454.694.504.584.654.664.754.864.934.804.705.435.405.695.725.105.005.094.984.854.694.424.724.684.395.084.384.263 .59

3.42

3.823.874.053.983.943.943.743.713.643.463.293.293.283.283.473.643.573.613.773.973.823.913.973 .99

4.074.204.274.184.094.804.815.105.194.664.594.684.624.534.394.154.464.454.184.854.254.153.573.42

6.966.686.916.646.636.666.276.266.065.775.515.535.315.265.355.515.205.215.365.695.145.165.185.185.275.485.675.495.456.525.966.676.705.905.545.565.305.114.874.554.864.904.828.906.415:784.724.51

3.283.143.313,203.213.243.123.193.112.972.842.902.802.792,842.952.822.862.963.323 .02

3.063.143.153.223.403.523.483.484.384.114.604.664.254.044.073 .90

3.793.603.373.603.663.695 575.635.444.614.51

4.794.594.804.624.624.654.414.444. ai4.113.933.993.833.813.894.003.813.843.974.353.953.984.014.034.104.274.424.304.295.264.885.475.514.954.654.684.474.344.133.854.124.164.166.176.015.564.654.51

Page 114: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A113

TABLE 6

INDEX NUMBERS OF THE YIELDS OF AMERICAN RAILROAD BONDSBASED ON SIGMA EQUATIONS

(Quarterly January 1857—January 1879;Monthly January 1879—January 1936)

Col. 1. The Sigma index number whose yield in January 1925 was 4.50percent (4.4998%).

Col. 2. A cumulation of the logarithms of the slopes of the lines fittedby Sigma ratios

o.x

Col. 3. Logarithms of the Sigma index number whose yield in January1925 was 5.00 per cent (5.0009%).

Col. 4. Logarithms of the Sigma index number whose yield in January1925 was 4.50 per cent (4.4998%).

Col. 5. A cyclical curve (see Appendix D) fitted to the logarithms ofthe 4.50 Sigma index (Col. 4).

The figures in column 3 are not introduced in this table because theyhave any great significance of their own. They are introduced primarilybecause, if they are used with the figures in column 4, any sigma indexwhatever may be quickly obtained. The relation between the figures incolumn 3 and those in column 4 is such that any other sigma index falls,at each date, the same proportion of the distance between the figures of,column 3 and those of column 4. For example, if for each month we takea figure which is half way between the figure in column 3 and the figure incolumn 4, we obtain a new sigma index.

Page 115: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A114 APPENDIX4

TABLE 6

"4.50" inJan. 1925

of sigmaslopes

Log. "5.00" Log. "4.50" curve toLog. "4.50"

1857J 6.745 1.24366 .82900A 6.745 1.99551 1.23938 .82899J 6.868 .03825 1.28966 .83683o 7.972 .09254 1.41591 .90159

1858J 7.006 .07342 1.33762 .84545A 6.591 .01258 1.24678 .81894J 6.385 .02982 1.25134 .80514o 6.310 1.96854 1.18749 .80001

1859J 6.258 1.95204 1.16947 .79644A 6.183 1.96828 1.17843 .79119J 6.409 1.98462 1.20891 .80682o 6.278 1.98401 1.19931 .79779

1860J 6.139 .03437 1.23898 .78809A 6.137 1.97054 1.17722 .78795J 5.923 1.94691 1.14115 .77250o 5.898 1.97022 1.15972 .77074

1861J 6.135 .00118 1.20556 .78784A 6.104 1.98600 1.18896 .78560J 6.148 .00429 1.20947 .78875o 6.346 1.99099 1.21056 .80252

1862J 6.099 1.94065 1.14865 .78528A 5.962 1.89995 1.10627 .77539J 5.627 1.85798 1.05067 .75027o 5.089 1.86484 1.01177 .70660

1863J 4.609 1.85633 .96286 .66361A 4.772 1.82670 .95819 .67867J 4.825 1.83981 .97159 .68352o 4.942 1.75906 .93309 .69390

1864J 5.222 1.74356 .94862 .71781A 4.774 1.76412 .92086 .678853 4.065 1.92929 .96304 .60905o 4.947 1.82602 .97341 .69433

1865J 5.402 1.73380 .95827 .73259A 5.985 1.70119 .98642 .777063 6.045 1.72200 1.00103 .781390 6.344 1.63154 .98072 .80238

Page 116: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS

TABLE 6 (Continued)

A115

1866JAJ0

6.6496.5486.3706.164

1111

• 57803.65817.61284.65649

• 980411.00575

.97498

.97876

1867JAJ0

82274.81613.80416.78987

6.3426.3446.2046.283

I . 60403I . 643661.662701.65879

1868

AJ0

.96962.98577.98429.98809

• 80222.8023879268.79819

6.3596.2436.2456.281

•1

111

.6114964012

• 59944.65740

.97366

.97731

.9611798735

1869JAJ0

80336.79541.7955379806

6.3826.5426.4606.556

1111

1.67317.62815.65201.67570

.00127

.99264

.99720

.01410

1870JAJ0

1

• 80499.81569.81025.81667

6.5196.3956.3776.374

11I1

1.69528.62365.55900.62055

• 02068• 98097.95549.97831

1871JA30

.81415

.80584

.80458

.80443

6.3836.4396.3986.280

1111

.6099i.• 52420.50781.62558

.9747094808.94017.97384

1872JA30

.80502

.80879

.80604

.79793

6.1596.2956.0286.214

1111

.58512

.51999

.6123960527

.94976

.93694

.95090

.96122

1873JA30

78950.79899.78025.79335

6.2496.2226.1526.391

I . 57862I . 609491.59581.1.70236

.95367

.96338

.95330

.01553

18743A

1

.79579

.7938778904.80560

6.1805.9845.8455.716

1.628451. 67444I . 744531.6504

.96808.97388• 99809.99963

.79100

.77703

.76676

.75710

Page 117: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A116 APPENDIX

TABLE 6 (Continued)

1875JAJ0

5.6275.4145.4145.363

1.735361.778291,750951.76477

.97679

.98355

.96831

.97179

1876JAJ0

.75029

.73351

.73353

.72942

5.2475.2525.0945.254

1.746121.708811.753081.69445

.95209

.93339

.94302

.92666

1877JA30

.71991

.72032

.70708

.72051

5.0505.3495.1535.204

1.77163I .677451.693571.70061

.94950

.92654

.91785

.92534

1878JA30

.70327

.72831

.71212

.71626

5.1075.1745.0375.025

1.719311.679051.696911.70359

.92653

.91273

.90955

.91161

.70824

.7137770224

.70108

4.9334.8834.9474.9474.8054.7314.6704.6774.7914.7574.7174.710

1.663601.609201.619501.619401.63732I . 654431.666541. 657901.639751.653701.665711.64739

.88507

.85810

.86785

.86774

.86242

.86293

.86260

.85947

.86217

.86495

.86658

.85798

1879JFMAM3JAS0ND

1880JFMAM33AS0ND

.69307

.68870

.69438

.69431

.68169

.67493

.66929

.66997

.68043.67727.67364.67301

6958.6925.6893.6861.68326807.6785.6767.6753.6741.6729.6717

4.6734.6354.6224.6574.6524.5514.4194.3914.3874.3494.2554.183

1.644381.632661.632631.619551.617281.65277I . 685091.674411.661011.659401.655771.65911

.85331

.84489

.84361

.84157

.84019

.84542

.84701

.83945

.83305

.82856

.81749

.81153

.66962

.66609

.66481.66809.66761.65815.64526.6426164219

.63841.62891.62150

.6702.6682.6658.6628.6594.6555.6513.6468.6421.6373.6327.6283

Page 118: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A117

TABLE 6 (Continued)1 2 3 4 5

DateSigma

"4.50" inJan. 1925

Cum. Log.of sigma

slopesLog. "5.00" Log.

S

"4.50"Cyclicalcurve to

Log.

1881 —J 4.160 1.64866 .80465 .61914 .6242F 4.258 1.61812 .80214 .62923 .6208M 4.276 1.63296 .80994 .63101 .6179A 4.224 1.65322 .81314 .62567 .6156M 4.067 1.67834 .80789 .60926 .6140J 4.019 1.66942 .79866 .60407 .6129

J 3.988 1.68651 .80319 .60078 .6122A 4.019 1.68698 .80671 .60408 .6119

S 4.138 1.66277 .80844 .61679 .6117O 4.170 1.66867 .81435 .62009 .6118N 4.109 1.68826 .81693 .61371 .6121D 4.119 1.69474 .82102 .61474 .6126

1882 —J 4.107 1.69759 .82116 .61352 .6132F 4.098 1.71308 .82777 .61259 .6139M 4.147 1.69910 .82606 .61770 .6146A 4.130 1.68515 .81770 .61592 .6155M 4.114 1.68064 .81395 .61426 .6163J 4.148 1.66407 .81004 .61782 .6170J 4.096 1.68153 .81250 .61240 .6178A 4.132 1.67788 .81462 .61620 .6187S 4.184 L6592s .81175 .62164 .6198o 4.157 1.66712 .81238 .61881 .6211N 4.206 1.65174 .81069 .62385 .6227D 4.265 1.61689 .80236 .62993 .6246

1883 —J 4.233 1.61496 .79824 .62658 .6266F 4.219 1.63868 .80655 .62525 .6287M 4.261 1.62286 .80434 .62952 .6306A 4.283 1.59982 .79744 .63166 .6321M 4.278 1.59961 .79690 .63120 .6332J 4.278 1.59751 .79616 .63126 .6337J 4.285 1.58999 .79412 .63205 .6336A 4,334 1.58078 .79559 .63692 .6331S 4.364 1.56289 .79220 .63993 .6322o 4.329 1.57913 .79444 .63637 .6312N 4.322 1.56372 .78824 .63568 .6301D 4.263 1.58614 .79033 .62969 .6290

1884J 4.154 1.63299 .79741 .61847 .6282F 4.184 1.58949 .78348 .62159 .6275M 4.184 1.56771 .77554 .62157 .6271A 4.173 1.55843 .77108 .62037 .6267M 4.217 1.57972 .78327 .62498 .6265J 4.250 1.62031 .80214 .62835 .6261J 4.242 1.63026 .80545 .62763 .6255A 4.237 1.59541 .79114 .62704 .6245S 4.234 1.60159 .79316 .62670 .62310 4.209 1.61289 .79501 .62417 .6210N 4.202 1.61894 .79674 .62350 .6182D 4.196 1.60126 .78915 .62282 .6148

Page 119: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A118 APPENDIX

TABLE 6 (Continued)

1885JFMAMJJAS0ND

4.0594.0073.9573.9383.8893.8473.8263.8173.8073.7983.8003.776

1.653531.662781.670311.674081.69234I .6892Q1.68513I . 684971.683291.667921.651931.65363

.79603

.79442

.79232

.79199

.79494

.78880

.78445

.78338

.78150

.77351

.76664

.76465

.60842

.60277

.5973359529

.58980

.58513

.58268

.58169

.58058

.57958

.57973

.57700

.6108

.6064

.6018

.59725928

• 5888.5852.5821.5795.5773.5755• 5739

1886JFMAMJJAS0ND

3.7573.7063.7063.7273.7193.7173.6583.6573.7453.7473. 7633.789

1.626691.616101.607191.59990I . 603281.58310I . 604521.613151.590441.589721.577451.57629

.75112

.74106

.73756

.73718

.73749

.72974

.73087

.73405

.73568

.73564

.73296

.73560

.57475

.56894

.56894

.5713657038

.57022

.56328

.56310

.57344

.57367

.57550

.57856

.5726

.57155707

• 57005696

.5694

.5694

.5696

.5701

.5708

.5718

.5729

3 7463.7463.7623.7943.7873.7973.7623.8053.9023.9203.8683.801

1.591051.597221.597031.59738I.575071.572041. 608711.601931.586311.592261.602621.63486

.73605

.73832

.74018

.73725

.73492

.734967445974700

.75195

.75617

.75431

.75965

1887JFMAM3JAS0ND

1888JFMAMJJAS0ND

0

.57358

.57353

.57546

.57909

.57832

.57945

.57537

.58041

.59124

.59325

.58746

.57994

.5743

.57575773.5788.5802.5815.5826.5834.5838.58395836.5828

3,7953.7583.7813.7823.7523.6833.6173.6163.5953.5783.5723.586

1.602101.610301. 607891.609341.617541.647331.661051.658761.687881.701481.697161. 68385

.74581.7448374649

.74713

.74690.75111.74923.74809.75871.76324.76034.75576

.57915

.57500

.57760

.57767

.57422

.56616

.55835

.55821.55567.55373.55290.55459

.58155797

.5774

.5746

.5715

.5679

.5641

.5601

.5561

.55235487.5456

Page 120: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS

TABLE 6 (Continued)

A119

3.5133.4583.4023.4553.4283.4243.4833.5223.3.5703.5683.595

1.701871.709631.744821.712461.70490I . 685241.660711.641541.628181.638631.658871,64986

.75537

.75234.76317.75331.74616.73630.73273.72933.72680.7339974236

.74173

.54567

.53886

.53168

.53843

.53500.53448.54199.54683.54983.55270.55243.55570

.5431

.54125400

.5395

.53985406

.54205438

• 5459.5483.5507• 5532

3.6173.6003.6133.6283.6173.6543.6733.6883.6993.7393.7433.781

1.626201.637841. 639931.631351.637731.623121.618351.628531.634511.624141. 649641.65331

73458.73721.73973.73793.73921.73776.73803.74391.74770.74803.75911.76513

1889JFMAMJJAS0ND

1890JFMAMJJAS0ND

1891J

MAMJJAS0ND

1892JFMAMJJAS0ND

.55841

.55626

.55791

.55966

.55830

.5628456502

.56680

.56813

.57270

.57317

.57762

5555.55775596

.5612

.5626

.5638

.5651

.5664

.5679

.5696

.5715

.5737

3.7423.7573.7633.7983.8193.8733.8743.8913.8723.8843.8723.862

1. 624301.613821.638061. 623751.629021.626661.622581.612891. 611831.579771. 569831.55010

.74848

.74598

.75650

.75472

.75920

.76432

.76290

.76091• 75828.74763.74261.73461

• 57309.5747757546

.57955

.58189

.58798

.5882159007

.58786

.58933

.58789

.58677

57595782

.5804

.5824

.5841

.5855• 58645868

.8867

.5861

.58515836

3.7763.7613.7753.7643.7583.7283.7133.7153.7373.7393.7653.768

1.579981. 572541.567091.563081. 552811. 563691.566261. 569681.580001.577071.564471.57303

.73536

.73102

.73063

.72797

.7236472403

.72319

.7246173087

.7301572862

.73198

.57698

.57534

.57689

.57565

.57488

.57149

.56975.56995.57250.57284.57581.57613

.58185799

.5779

.5760

.5744

.5729

.5718.5710.5707.5708.5713.5722

Page 121: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A120 APPENDIX

TABLE 6 (Continued)

1893JFMAMJJAS0ND

3.7493.7403.7433.7403.7493.7853.8303.8653.8573.8653.8263.798

1.57182.55794

1.578021.581591.605431.620731.665811 . 694601.63559I . 600241.571131.55056

.72931

.72338• 73083.73185.74181.75207.77621.79330.76625.75307.73785.72757

.57390

.57285

.57318

.57289

.57389

.57813.58325.58710.58625.58714.58268.57957

5734.5749.5766.57825797

.5809

.5818

.5821

.58195811

.5797

.57761894JFMAMJJAS0ND

333333333333

730706698

.627

.612

.621

.616

.591

.571554

.512507

1.593081.579581.561421.581791.595611.592901.605461.608201.604791.594051.604431. 60775

.73487

.72709

.71970

.71861

.72188

.72192

.72614

.72415

.72048

.71431

.71313

.71376

57165.56887.56796.55959.55771.55878.55821.55516.55281.55074.54559.54494

.5750

.5719

.5684

.5649

.5615

.5584

.5559

.5538

.5522

.5510

.55015492

3.5203.5533.5613.5663.5123.4763.4773.4113.4273.4503.4703.430

111111111111

.60316

.60430

.6071560744

.6133760070

.58287

.59950

.5931458402

.58037

.64060

.71359

.71808

.72018

.72092

.71651

.70724

.70066

.69854

.69810

.69763

.69885

.71738

1895JFMAMJJAS0ND

1896JFMAMJJAS0ND

54654.55059.55159.55222.54549.54113.54124.53290.53486.53778.54035.53530

.5483

.5472

.546154485435

.54215408

.5395

.53855378

.5376

.5378

333333333333

478• 458489.501487

.451• 484• 585578543512

• 487

1.640931.629691.612881.602701.600361.618121.646071.681641.650171.650411.616751.60537

.72354

.71641

.71352.7110870847.71081.72650.75462.73986.73567.71790.71041

.54132

.5388554270.54422.54250.53791.54211.55449.55372.54942• 54555.54251

• 5386

.54165434

.5450• 5464.54715472

.545154305402

Page 122: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A121

TABLE 6 (Continued)

1897JFMAMJ3AS0ND

333333333333

.429• 392.367• 343.330289.264• 298.265.285• 293• 249

1.615341. 62527I . 624931.632631.63302.1.641271.637631.625981.653771.641621.625601.62660

.70704

.70620

.70292

.70296

.70132

.69937

.69459

.69439

.70161• 69908.69348.68809

.53525

.53043.52729.52418.5223951701

.51375

.51834

.51392

.5165751758

.51178

.5378

.5341

.5303

.5264

.5229

.5189

.5165

.5149

.5142

.5146

.5152

.5164

1898JFMAM3SAS0ND

3.2533.2603.3143.3783.4023.3533.2653.2853.3103.2853.2353.198

1.610511.608021.622851.632361.591001.58966I . 624091.591011.583591.582011.595601.60005

.68222

.68214

.69513

.70724

.69412

.68737

.68918

.67904

.67952

.67574

.67406

.67073

.51232

.51322

.52034

.52858

.53169

.52544

.51389

.51661

.51983

.51664

.5099050488

.5179

.51955208.52175220.5217.5205.5186.5160.5129.5094.5059

3.1503.1583.1503.1133.0953.0953.1103.1283.1483.1763.1963.177

I.oosio1.602611.609731.612961.60553'.599591.600141.600081.607011. 608041.606571.64488

.66613

.66621

.66785

.66402

.65866

.65634

.65864

.66112

.66656

.67086

.67294

.68584

1899JMAMJJAS0ND

1900SFMAMSSAS0ND

.49834

.49938

.49826

.49316

.49070

.49067

.49275

.49526

.49803

.50193• 50458.50195

.5026

.4996

.4973

.49574948.4945• 4947.4953.4961.4971.4980.4990

333333333333

.174

.156

.143

.141

.148

.154164

.172

.179

.200

.189

.170

1.625501.618251.620011.609381. 622851, 626151.617081.610821. 606831.590441. 581931 57612

.67748

.67215

.67099

.66655

.67291

.67503

.67283

.67146

.67077

.66746

.66283

.65797

.50162

.49920

.4973449709

.49812• 49890.50034.50145.5023150524

.50375

.50101

.49975004

.5008

.5010

.5010• 5008.5006.5004• 5003• 5003• 5004.5007

Page 123: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A122 APPENDIX

TABLE 6 (Continued)1 2 3 4 5

Sigma Cum. Log. CyclicalDate "4.50" in of sigma Log. "5.00" Log. "4.50" curve to

Jan. 1925 slopes Log. "4.50"

1901 . —

J 3.166 1.56987 .65526 .50054 .5011F 3.143 1.57452 .65383 .49745 .5015M 3.149 1.56808 .65232 .49824 .5018A 3.158 1.56539 .65254 .49941 5021M 3.179 1.56645 .65577 .50226 .5023J 3.179 1.55744 .65269 .50234 .5024J 3.200 1.55236 .65375 .50515 .5025A 3.202 1.56066 .65683 .50536 .5025S 3.196 1.56906 .65900 .50457 .5026O 3.206 1.55763 .65644 .50602 .5027N 3.190 1.55133 .65206 .50381 .5029D 3.189 1.55170 .65207 .50369 .5031

1902J 3.185 1.54536 .64936 .50314 .5037F 3.168 1.55282 .64959• .50082 .5043M 3.179 1.54216 .64742 .50227 .5052A 3.179 1.53686 .64565 .50226 .5063M 3.208 1.52136 .64455 .50619 .5077J 3.243 1.50027 .64274 .51093 .5095J 3.270 1.48748 .64254 .51455 .5116A 3.292 1.47834 .64274 .51742 .5141

S 3.306 1.47601 .64397 .51932 .5169o 3.327 1.48492 .64923 .52201 .5200N 3.344 1.47480 .64857 .52427 .5234D 3.347 1.49045 .65353 .52467 .5268

1903J 3.363 1.46779 .64896 .52665 .5303F 3.388 . 1.45454 .64863 .53000 .5335M 3.434 1.44832 .65272 .53578 .5366A 3.487 1.42346 .65284 .54240 .5394M 3.455 1.43963 .65303 .53840 .5419J 3.463. 1.45831 .65917 .53950 .5441

J 3.551 .1.41181 .65779 .55027 .5459A 3.622 1.37617 .65803 .55899 .5474S 3.595 1.40814 .66228 .55567 .5486O 3.531 1.43419 .66112 .54792 .5494N 3.493 1.44386 .65892 .54317 .5499D 3.508 1.43446 .65835 .54507 .5500

1904 —

J 3.510 1.42173 .65527 .54527 .5498F 3.519 1.42087 .65622 .54643 .5492M 3.560 1.38975 .55358 .55139 .5485A 3.551 1.37433 .64899 .55037 .5476M 3.557 1.35281 .64494 .55108 .5468J 3.533 1.35401 .64231 .54819 .5459J 3.503 1.35071 .63778 .54438 .5450A 3.482 1.36201 £3767 .54181 .5441

5 3.483 1.36442 .63841 .54201 .54310 3.491 1.34741 .63555 .54286 .5422N 3.491 1.33523 .63310 .54297 .5411D 3.476 1.34079 .63236 .54107 .5402

Page 124: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS

TABLE 6 (Continued)1 2 3 4 5

DateSigma

"4.50" inJan. 1925

Cum. Log.sigma

slopesLog.

.

"5.00" Log. "4.50"Cyclicalcurve to

Log. "4.50"

3.4383 4433.4523.4553. 4613.4503 . 4453.4513.4573.4663.4913.491

1.354991.339411.341581.344671.344811.351661.344741.341241.334651.325791.323001.33500

.63067

.62790

.62960

.63064

.63133

.63136

.62934

.62938

.62873

.62797

.63055

.63294

.53634

.53690• 53814.53853.53919.53776.53722.53799.53872.53979.54292.54286

3.4853.5163.5583.5533,5763.5693.5833.6233.6633.6513.6373.655

1.329851.314891.301391.327181.317441, 313751. 312471.287691.271801.274501.28415I . 27896

.63118.63207.63461.63911.63994.63831.63978.63988.64173.64073.64083.64209

1906JFMAMJJAS0ND1906JFMAMJJAS0ND

1907JFMAMJJAS0D1908JFMAMJJAS0ND

.5421654606

.55124

.55064

.55343

.55254

.55426

.55910

.5638556237.56071.56291

.5393.

.5385.5378'5374.5373'5374.5378.5384.5393.540454175431

.5446

.5464

.5483

.5503

.5523

.5543

.5561.5578.55945608.5622.5637

.5652

.5669.5686.5703

• .5718.5734.5747'5757

• .5765.5770.5769.5765

.5758

.5749

.5737

.5723

.5709.5695.5683.5672.5664

• .5658.5655.5654

3.6513.6793.7413.7163.7123.7263.7193.7553.7613.8233.8953.828

1.296391.287441.288141.316151. 342471.374521.379891.390521.426871.431571.487951.46519

.64482

.64647

.65390

.65639

.66124

.66992

.67026

.67700.68659.69487.71858.70459

.56240

.56573

.57303

.57014

.56960

.57125.57037.57463.5752958235.59047.58302

3.7393.6803.7183.7093.7263.7133.6923.7153.6983.6963.6783.672

1. 426871. 466531.458521.442711

1.403951. 403071.344571.327081.32033I . 302971.28964

.68413

.68772

.69005.68473• 67509.675336727266196.6566965480.64924.64606

.57283

.56677

.57033

.56929

.57129

.5697456735

.56987

.56805.56771.56556.56491

Page 125: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A124 APPENDIX

TABLE 6 (Continued)• 1 2 3 4 5

Date. Sigma

"4.50" inJan. 1925

Cum. Log.of sigma

slopesLog. "5.00" Log. "4.50"

Cyclicalcurve to

Log. "4.50"

1909J 3.672 1.26265 .64119 .56493 .5654F 3.672 1.23288 .63611 .56490 .5656M 3.681 1.23431 .63739 .56595 .5659A 3.668 1.25493 .63927 .56436 .5663M 3.678 1.23567 .63730 .56563 .5669J 3.702 1.22535 .63837 .56839 .5677J 3.695 1.22764 .63794 .56759 .5686A 3.722 1.20460 .63754 .57082 .5698S 3.754 1.18528 .63834 .57452 .5711

0 3.736 1.22791 .64280 .57240 .5724N 3.738 1.24172 .64524 .57257 .5738D 3.753 1.22653 .64461 .57443 .5752

1910J 3.761 1.21753 .64401 .57528 .5765F 3.773 1,20742 .64387 .57672 .5776M 3.801 1.19514 .64516 .57989 .5786A 3.812 1.23232 .65217 .58106 .5794M 3.797 1.26822 .65664 .57940 .5800J 3.809 11.27206 .65871 .58078 .5806J 3.827 1.27304 .66097 .58287 .5811A 3.827 11.26511 .65960 .58291 .5816S 3.818 11.22396 .65153 .58177 .5820o :3.796 1.22178 .64874 .57933 .5824N 3.819 1.22534 .65201 .58203 .5829D 3.818 11.22516 .65172 .58177 .5833

1911J 3.824 11.20565 .64938 .58250 .5838F 3.844 1.18183 .64807 .58476 .5842M 3.857 11.18248 .64959 .58619 .5846A 3.843 1.19405 .64978 .58467 .5850M 3.841 1.18137 .64772 .58448 .5852J 3.851 1.17787 .64838 .58565 .5854J 3.858 1.17496 .64872 .58641 .5854

A 3.868 11.17817 .65030 .58752 .5854S 3.862 1.20659 .65380 .58677 .5853O 3.849 1.21454 .65352 .58525 .5852N 3.833 11.21059 .65111 .58347 .5851D 3.839 11.21066 .65182 .58417 .5851

1912J 3.838 11.20217 .65044 .58410 .5851F 3.841 1.18775 .64862 .58444 .5852M 3.857 11.18733 .65034 .58623 .5855A 3.857 1.19718 .65192 .58633 .5858M 3.850 1.21290 .65354 .58553 .5863J 3.865 1.21078 .65488 .58720 .5870J 3.875 1.20957 .65577 .58828 .5878A 3.908 1.19431 .65719 .59204 .5889S 3.918 11.20733 .66025 ' .59312 .59020 3.917 11.20587 .65991 .59299 .5917N 3.916 11.20704 .65987 .59278 .5934D 3.929 1.20654 .66134 .59432 .5953

Page 126: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A125

TABLE 6 (Continued)

Date

1Sigma

"4.50" inJan. 1925

2Cum. Log.of sigmaslopes

3

Log.

4

"5.00" Log. "4.50' ,

5Cyclicalcurve to

Log. "4.50"

3.9143.9213.9754.0414.0834.0774.0924.0634.0274.0644.1304.149

1.209591.219951.231151.206031.212151.267581.250851.238891.238041.234161. 219861.21017

.66010

.66252

.67026

.67348

.67892

.68746

.68608

.68103

.67702

.68037• 68496.68548

.59261

.59340

.59934

.60655

.61103

.61033

.61186

.60883

.60496

.6089561585

.61790

.5973

.5995

.6017

.6039

.6060

.60786092

.6102

.61076107

.6103

.6098

4.0754.0354.0434.0274.0134.0134.061

t

I . 207591. 180551.195481.213831. 232291.218101.21308

.67732

.66897

.67200

.67318

.67458

.67238

.67665

.61014

.60584

.60666

.60502

.60347

.60355

.60862****

1913JFMAMJJAS0ND

1914JFMAMJJAS0ND

1915JFMAMJJAS0ND

1916JFMAMJJAS0ND

4.212

.6091

.6086

.6083

.60826085

.6090

.6099

.6111.6126.6143.6161.61801.26312 .70080 .62446

4.1554.1524.1684.1344.1484.1784.2324.2504.2494.1794.0914.069

1.263871.262701.278351.271261.268531.27041I . 280881.292731.307341.287361.24865I . 25808

.69509

.69456

.69894

.69420

.69506

.6986970603

.71017

.71279

.70180

.68562

.68494

.61861

.61829

.61987

.61641

.61775

.62105

.62649

.62843

.62826

.62107

.61177

.60948

.6198

.6213.62246229

.6229

.6223

.6214

.6202

.6189

.6177

.6164

.6152

4.0484.0504.0634.0714.0784.0714.0664.0784.0774.0394.0113.997

1.263991.249361.251951. 260141.265151,278071.295021.301821.291031.274871.267931.28618

.68374

.68151

.68322

.68556

.68707• 68868.69134.69384.69169.68478.68051.68223

.6072460754

.60881

.60973

.61036

.60966

.60918

.61038.61028.60634.60332.60172

Exchange closed.

.6140

.6127• 6112.6097.60826067

.60536042.6034.6031.6033.6041

Page 127: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

£126 APPENDIX

TABLE

Date

6 (Continued)1

Sigma"4.50" inJan. 1925

2Cum. Log.of sigma

slopes

3 4

Log. "5.00" Log. "4.50"

5Cyclicalcurve to

Log. "4.50"

1917JFMAMJJAS0ND

3.9394.0084.0394.1034.2274.2644.3164.3514.4164.4744.5824.624

1.283121.280931.29113I . 320281.314351.322531.313861.310921.330631.320721.337411.36621

.67536

.68248

.68770.70023.71188.71738.72089.72387.73417.73788.75172.76177

59542.60294.60627.61315.62598.6298563509

.6386564498

.65071

.66113

.66497

.6057

.6081

.6114

.6156

.6205

.6261

.6322

.63856448.6509.6566.6615

1918JFMAMJJAS0D

4.5774.5964.6694.7184.6764.7454.7304.7794.8114.7334.4844.555

1.376921. 326061.319301.325301.307301. 294621. 349391.313161.328881.297061.26379,1.21358

.75981

.75069

.75604.76187.75440.75825.76798.76492.77102.75770.72819.72659

.6605966244.66915.67377.66988.67617.67486.67925.68219.67515.65172.65848

.6656

.6688

.67116724

.6730

.6731

.67276720

.67 14

.6707

.6702

.6699

4.6564.6834.6884.7504.7404.7544.7844.8354.8654.7854.8744.894

I . 200781.220161.269911.25401L218041.202931.234381.331041.33530I . 298281. 326051.35332

.73414

.73968

.74852

.75149

.74459

.7435275126

.77363

.77724

.76265

.77618

.78370

1919JFMAMJJAS0ND

1920JFMAMJJAS0ND

6680067053

.67097

.67672

.67.577

.67706

.67980

.68436

.68709

.67986

.68793

.68973

.669866996703

.6711

.6724

.6743.6768.6800.68366877.6918.6959

4.9005.0255.0305.1495.3085.3155 . 2575.1165 . 0494.9394 . 9955.130

1.335511. 365621.361591.407051.438691.410461.425811.414631.340261.304801.323481.34100

.78042

.79780

.79741

.81804

.83933

.83265

.83178

.81713

.79442

.77763

.78619

.80139

.69023

.70113

.70164

.71170

.72495

.72547

.72074

.70891

.70324

.69360

.69846

.71005

69977030

.7058

.707970927097

.7098

.7095

.7088

.7081

.7075

.7071

Page 128: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS

TABLE 6 (Continued)

A127

4.9594.9985.0585.0875.1385.2135.0875.0284.9984,9924.7494.588

1.336801.323621.32046I . 322231.295151. 33226I . 323341.302691.26502I . 249581.27731I . 29542

.78590

.78657

.79114

.79400

.79299

.80660

.79418

.78506

.77543

.77233

.75545

.74380

69544.6988170402

.70653

.71080

.71709

.70648

.70144

.69875

.69833

.67658

.66156

7067.7066.7066.7063.7055.7041.7016.6979.6931.6870.6800.6724

4.4774.4974.5234.4394.4294.4074.2864.2814.2824.4074.4784.470

1.314131. 298741.234411.229911.212531.229661. 264571.22471I . 206231.188531.198421. 18827

.73684

.73577

.72685

.71806

.71426

.71475

.70870

.70135

.69858

.70836

.71692

.71456

1921JFMAMJJAS0ND

1922JFMAKjJAS0ND

1923JFMAMJJAS0ND

1924JFMAMJJAS0ND

65098.65290.65538.64734.64631.64406.63210.63147.6316164406.65114.65031

• 6646.6571.6505.6451.6411.6387.6378.6382.6396.6417.6444.6473

4.4574.4924.6114.6294.5474.5624.5564.5264.5874.6144.5934.615

1.199831. 194151. 198561.204031.211401. 210891.223011.22426I . 200431.189641. 175691.16127

.71498

.71750

.72956

.73217

.72544

.72685

.72816

.72556

.72762

.7285572448

.72461

64899.65237.66376.66553.65767.65915.65855.65575.66154.66409.66205.66422

6502.6529.65566579.6598.6615• 6627.6635.6638.6637• 6633.6627

4.5874.6214.6344.5904.5604.4834.4224.4864.4694.4414.4604.507

1. 146481.122921. 107661. 119131.093391.104941.109521.070621.086971.091171. 06929I . 04649

.71985

.71995

.71941

.71662

.71062

.70461

.6991970088

.70109

.69889

.69817

.70025

.66148

.66467

.66604

.66182

.65897

.65157

.64559

.65187

.65020

.6475064931

.65389

.6619

.6609659965886576

.6562• 6547.6531.65146499

• 6486• 6477

Page 129: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A128 APPENDIX

TABLE

Date

6 (Continued)1

Sigma"4.50" inJan. 1925

2Cum. Log.of sigma

slopes

3

Log. "5.00"

4

Log. "4.50"

SCyclicalcurve to

Log. "4.50"

4.5004.4954.4374.3964.3384.3794.4364.4994.4654.5104.4034.457

1.041671.026401.079221.106441.111911.067471.050351.035521.026542.985312.982972.98238

.69904

.69697

.69707

.69626

.69122

.69001

.69373

.69837

.69413

.69440• 6925868909

.65320

.65271

.64708

.64303

.63733

.64135

.64695

.653 16

.64985

.65413

.65253

.64009

.647164706472

.64756479

.64816482

.648164776471

.64656457

4.4094.3724.3764.3234.3064.3374.3424.3464.3434.3494.3074.283

2.993712.997182.909352.993532.962042.914392.944842.958692.955482.935732.939022.95229

.68541

.68204

.6826867678

.67225

.67136

.67438

.6760067543

.6742767045

.66904

1925JFMAMJJAS0ND

1926JFMAMJJAS0ND

1927

FMAMJJAS0ND

1928JFMAMJJAS0ND

.64435

.64066

.64109

.6357563408

.63716

.63770

.63813

.03783

.63835

.63418

.63172

.6449

.64396429

.6417

.6404• 6391.6377.6364.6350.6336.6322.6305

4.2434.2444.1844.1144.1004.1324.1344.1134.0764.0434.0053.996

2.967502.964642.994411.017691.026741.025841.027721.000861.004482.987012.971142.95107

.66637

.66615

.66267

.65767

.65705

.66040.66076.65591.65231.64713.64157.63887

.62772

.62776

.62155

.61428

.61275.61620.61636.61417.61023.60670.60260.60165

.62856262

.62366206

.6175.6143.61146089.6069.6057.6052.6055

4.0104.0304.0684.0864.1004.1784.2594 3294.2634.2764.2604.312

2.917272.874952.873682.924202.944152.919102.897232.920702.883212.846412.88210

63881.64077.6406264244

.64767

.65762

.66388

.66931

.6643966288.65860.66640

.60318

.60634

.60939

.61130

.61269.62100.62930.6364462969

.63105

.62936

.63465

.6065

.6082

.6104

.6131

.6161

.6193

.6226

.6260.6294.6326.6357.6385

Page 130: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A129

TABLE 6 (Continued)1 .2 3 .4 5

DateSigma

"4.50" inJan. 1925

Cum. Log.of sigma

slopesLog. "5.00" Log. "4.50"

Cyclicalcurve to

Log. "4.50"

1929JFMAMJJAS0ND

1930JFlviAMJJAS0ND

1931JFMAlviIIAS0ND

1932IFMAMJJAS0ND

4.3434.3824.4074.4064.4234.4644.4904.4514.5214.4924.3874.349

4.3334.3174.2444.3044.2684.2344.1824, 1134.0624.0344.0664. 116

4.0124.0184.0334.0073.9183.92739203.9503 . 9804.1744.3214.496

4.5374.6094.5094.6044.5264.5564.5224.3404.2744.2684.2804.119

.88250

p.90420

2.936112.87776

2.903652. 94954

2.86676

2.91729

2.96978

1.011661. 069281. 12325

1.036881.031381.006771.089891.148651.16878I. 173151.245381.361951. 436581.407741.53738

1.451381. 414901.419291.516311.660611.682341.596001.476761.441631.458321. 49997T.60227

.66959

.67432

.67986

.67741

.67920

.68432

.68604

.68609

.68823

.68245

.67818

.66979

.67018

.67227

.66415

.66452

.66313

.66121

.65766

.6530564545

.64845

.65801

.66984

.64875

.64878

.64791

.65402.65174.65557.65532.66985.69572.73444.74214.79637

.77456

.77190

.76346

.79988

.84634

.85900.81960.76238.74593.74980.76313.78147

.63781

.64170

.64410

.64401

.64572• 64969

65225.64852.65520.65239• 64223.63836

.63682• 63519.62783.63388.63023.62679.62142.61420.60869.60567.60916.61452

.60341

.60401

.60561

.60279

.59309.59414.59327.59657.59988.62063.63564.65283

.65680.66364.65409.66314.65570.65858.65532.63753.63079.63015.63143.61480

.6411

.6432

.6451

.64666477

.6485

6488.6482.6470.6452.6428

.6399

.6367

.6334

.63006268.6237.62086178.6 146

.6112

.6077

.6041

.6008

.5981.5964.59605971:59996042.6100.6 169

.6246

.6325.6403

6472.6527.6564.6580.6573.6546.65026444.6379.63 11

.6245.6184

Page 131: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A130 APPENDIX

TABLE 6 (Concluded)

3.9333.9124.0514.2204.1133.9963.9443.8903.8703.8783.9563.939

1.597261.632191.656221.653711.583831.531021.481711.492481.583241.593221.667511.63457

.75948

.77097

.79632

.81293.77392.74302.72218.71933.74724.74997.78879.77292

.59471

.59241

.60760

.62529

.6141760156

.59591• 58988.58771.58861.59734.59545

.6132

.6090

.6056

.6032

.6013

.5999.5986.5971• 5954.5932.5907• 5879

3.8843.8453.7823.7263.6713.5823.5793.6133.6593.6033.5223.459

1.528471.413571.401981.393311.404391.430421.418241. 45778I . 478081.462451.468371.46112

• 5848.5817.5783.5747

.72833

.69154

.6815867304

.6692466502

.66165

.67606

.68719

.67606

.66781

.65790

.58933

.58486

.57770

.57122

.56478.55411

.55381.55794• 56342.55666.54678.53887

1933JFMAM3JAS0ND

1934JFMAMJJAS0ND

1935

MAMJJAS0ND

1936

MA

JJAS0NI::'

1937J

3.3743.2833 . 2293.2243,2693 . 2513 . 2363.2913.3033,3113.2703.250

1.464681.49297I. 560421. 577811.529061,523911.513381.502751.512641.521351.539641.52014

.64812.64430.65871.66417.65365.6496064429

.64832

.6528965673.65714.64828

.52810.51621.50909.50845.51446.51204.51003.51730.51886.51998.51451.51191

1.48775 .63302 506453.2103.1773.1133.1003.0663.0523.0753.1013.0733.0643.0342.989

3.011 /

Page 132: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A131

TABLES 7 AND 8

CERTAIN MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS AND EQUATIONS DERIVED FROM THELOGARITHMS OF THE YIELDS OF THE RAILROAD BONDS USED IN

INDEXES

The information in each horizontal line of these tables refers to adefirnte group of bonds, each bond in the group having either actual orinterpolated quotations on both the dates given in the first two columns.The bonds from which the tables are constructed are, year by year, thesame bonds which were used in constructing the bond index numbers.The groups in two horizontal lines may or may not be the same. Thenames of the bonds used in any particular period may be found by refer-ring to Table 3.

The x's of the table refer in all cases to the logarithms of the yieldsin the earlier date (first column of table). The y's refer to the logarithmsof the yields in the later date (second column of table). All functions andequations are in terms of logarithms; for example, the x's and y's of theequations are in all cases logarithms of yields. Thus the first equation inthe last column of Table 7 might read "The logarithm of the yield in thelater January equals 1. 18693 times the logarithm of the yield in theearlier January, minus . 13852."

The origin for all equations is zero. At the origin actual yields inboth the earlier and the later dates are therefore unity, as log i =0.

The Least Squares Straight Line Equations of Table 7 n.eed noparticular description. In the eighth column the earlier January (x) hasbeen considered the independent variable, in the ninth column the laterJanuary (y) has been considered the indepen.dent variable. In statisticalnomenclature, they are the two regression equations.

In the equations which we have termed Sigma Equations neithervariable is considered independent. They are equations of theoreticallinear relationship between x and y, fitted by the method of least squares,the assumption having been made that the tendency to deviation fromtheory in the x and y elements of each observation is in proportion to therespective x and y standard deviations. For a fuller discussion of thesignificance of these Sigma Equations see Ch. IV.

Table 7 contains a column entitled 'Root-Mean-Square-Displace-ment'. These figures give a of scatter of the observations aboutthe Sigma line (y = This measure of scatter, unlike the coefficientof correlation (r), is not necessarily affected by the mere inclusion orexclusion of bonds of lower and lower grade—in other words by the mererange of the observations.

Page 133: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

TABLE 7—AMERICAN RAILROAD BONDMATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS

ROOT-MEANDATES OF IDENTICAL GROUPS ARITHMETIC AVERAGES STANDARD DEVIATIONS SQUARE

OF OF LoGs OF YIELDS OF Locs OF YIELDS DISPLACE.

___________________________ ___________ ___________ ______________________

MENTx (earlier y (later /date) date). vJan. 1857 Jan. 1858 .90277 .93300 .05577 .06620 .0163Jan. 1858 Jan. 1859 .93493 .86427 .06473 .04906 .0263Jan. 1859 Jan. 1860 .86427 .87007 .04905 .05930 .0138Jan. 1860 Jan. 1861 .87007 .86380 .05930 .05494 .0088Jan. 1861 Jan. 1862 .86600 .85327 .05407 .04704 .0097Jan. 1862 Jan. 1863 .87218 .73518 .04985 .04106 .0234Jan. 1863 Jan. 1864 .74552 .78100 .04625 .03567 .0096Jan. 1864 Jan. 1865 .77968 .79309 .03537 .03458 .0150Jan. 1865 Jan. 1866 .79232 .86447 .03662 .02559 .0198Jan. 1866 Jan. 1867 .86932 .85168 .02700 .02867 .0116Jan. 1867 Jan. 1868 .85230 .85430 .02851 .02901 .0082jan. 1868 Jan. 1869 .85390 .86325 .02916 ,03361 .0102Jan. 1869 Jan. 1870 .85852 .87048 .02922 .03075 .0106jan. 1870 Jan. 1871 .87376 .85400 .02716 .02231 .0133.Tan. 1871 Jan. 1872 .85400 .83576 .02231 .02108 .0145Jan. 1872 Jan. 1873 .84043 .84596 .02454 .02418 .0054Jan. 1873 Jan. 1874 .84652 .84790 .02355 .02641 .0047Jan. 1874 Jan. 1875 .84576 .82033 .02553 .03266 .0089Jan. 1875 Jan. 1876 .82057 .79195 .03334 .03418 .0094Jan. 1876 Jan. 1877 .79195 .77967 .03418 .03624 .0139Jan. 1877 Jan. 1878 .78145 .77755 .03623 .03212 .0098Jan. 1878 Jan. 1879 .78045 .75659 .03216 .02829 .0065Tan. 1879 Jan. 1880 .75752 .73126 .02458 .02352 .0057Jan. 1880 Jan. 1881 .74288 .69312 .03275 .03307 .0072Jan. 1881 Jan. 1882 .69692 .70058 .03510 .03929 .0104Tan. 1882 Jan. 1883 .70379 .70121 .03939 .03256 .0076Jan. 1883 Jan. 1884 .70145 .69652 .03227 .03363 .0060Jan. 1884 Jan. 1885 .69647 .69019 .03310 .03471 .0088Jan. 1885 Jan. 1886 .69103 .65241 .03480 .03272 .0063Jan. 1886 Jan. 1887 .65216 .64489 .03281 .03023 .0076Jan. 1887 Jan. 1888 .64508 .65249 .03030 .03108 .0085jan. 1888 Jan. 1889 .65414 .64003 .02817 .03545 .0073Jan. 1889 Jan. 1890 .63850 .63639 .03523 .02960 .0089Jan. 1890 Jan. 1891 .63989 .65421 .02969 .02956 .0068Jan. 1891. Jan. 1892 .65500 .65095 .02958 .02671 .0075Jan 1892 Jan. 1893 .65090 .64544 .02730 .02679 .0057Jan. 1893 Jan. 1894 .64649 .64789 .02724 .02861 .0075Jan. 1894 Jan. 1895 .64783 .62450 .02910 .02979 .0072Jan. 1895 Jan. 1896 .62650 .62853 .03076 .03356 .0070Jan. 1896 Jan. 1897 .62735 .61635 .03323 .03133 .0072Jan. 1897 Jan. 1898 .61525 .59144 .03139 .03104 .0075Jan. 1898 Jan. 1899 .58980 .57486 .03353 .03312 .0092Jan. 1899 Jan. 1900 .57368 .58059 .03341 .03501 .0078Tan. 1900 Jan. 1901 .58276 .57192 .03561 .03133 .0041Jan. 1901 Jan. 1902 .57192 .57059 .03133 .02961 .0065Jan. 1902 Jan. 1903 .57124 .58361 .02948 .02466 .0055Jan. 1903 Jan. 1904 .58338 .59630 .02437 .02191 .0055Jan. 1904 Jan. 1905 .59697 .58067 .02183 .01872 .0048Jan. 1905 Jan. 1906 .58465 .58773 .02115 .01996 .0060Jan. 1906 Jan. 1907 .58872 .60551 .02001 .01853 .0041Jan. 1907 Jan. 1908 .6055 1 .63105 .01853 .02502 .0074Jan. 1908 Jan. 1909 .63105 .60482 .02502 .01714 .0061Jan. 1909 Jan. 1910 .60709 .61327 .02068 .01864 .0042Jan. 1910 Jan. 1911 .61355 .61975 .01889 .01838 .0033Jan. 1911 Jan. 1912 .61975 .62105 .01838 .01824 .0040Jan. 1912 Jan. 1913 .62170 .63086 .01861 .01893 .0037Jan. 1913 Jam 1914 .63056 .64793 .01904 .01895 .0056Jan. 1914 Jan. 1915 .64870 .66251 .01940 .02208 .0049Jan. 1915 Jan. 1916 .66172 .65037 .02296 .02297 .0055Jan. 1916 Jan. 1917 .64988 .63998 .02328 .02433 .0041Jan. 1917 Jan. 1918 .64020 .71617 .02484 .03083 .0099Jan. 1918 Jan. 1919 .71617 .70505 .03083 .02055 .0079Jan. 1919 Jan. 1920 .70505 .02055 .02802 .0067Jan. 1920 Jan. 1921 .74075 .74612 .02802 .02811 .0063Jan. 1921 Jan. 1922 .74512 .69907 .02811 .02668 .0083Jan. 1922 Jan. 1923 .69907 .68595 .02668 .02050 .0067Jan. 1923 Jan. 1924 .68595 .69417 .02050 .01813 .0055Jan. 1924 Jan. 1923 .69417 .67888 .01813 .01425 .0044Jan. 1925 Jan. 1926 .68471 .67258 .01854 .01660 .0033Jan. 1926 Jan. 1927 .67344 .65511 .01774 .01670 .0039Jan. 1927 Jan. 1928 .65687 .63004 .01749 .01613 .0033Jan. 1928 Jan. 1929 .63144 .66302 .01638 .01460 .0052Jan. 1929 Jan. 1930 .66302 .66328 .01460 .01533 .0049Jan. 1930 Jan. 1931 .65593 .62939 .00936 .01272 .0041Jan. 1931 Jan. 1932 .64041 .75290 .02114 .05491 .0132Jan. 1932 Jan. 1933 .73806 .70841 .04199 .05875 .0172Jan. 1933 Jan. 1934 .71155 .68790 .05698 .04807 .0142Jan. 1934 Jan. 1935 .68211 .60821 .04557 .03934 .0128Jan. 1935 Jan. 1936 .60821 .59093 .03934 .04149 .0106

Note 1. These are the yields in Table 3.Note 2. The variables are the logarithms of bond yields. The first two columns give, of course, only

the dates to which yields relate.Note 3. For a description of the nature of these equations see Ch. IV.

Page 134: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

YIELDS1, JANUAItIES 1857-1936AND EQUATIONS

y =1.10138x— .06129.59365x+.30925

y= .90440x+.07691y= .83750x+.12200

.60311x+.20916

.72839x+.23797

.79911x+.17004

.40729x+.54177

.87710x+.08920

.93383x+.05840

y .89541x+.07055.81405x+.1414i.83941x+.10147.90281x+.04736.96113x—.02088

.78936x+.14567

y=

y

y=y=

y=

y=y=

y=y=

y=

y=y=

yy=

yy=

y=

y=y=

y=y=

y=yy= .98144x—.00399

x= .78178y+.ll337x =1. 0334ly+ . 041 78x=x=rl.05376y—.04017x=1.10666y—.07828x= .88927y+.2184lx=1.22440y—.21074x= .83582y+.ll6SOx= .83450y+.O1O92

.77811y-t'2O662x= .90231y+.O8l46x= .77535y+.1845S

.83126y-l-.13493x= .86123y+.l3827

.58631y+.36398x= .96427y+.O2470

.85969y+.11759

.89936y+.lOS32x= .79616y+.lll2lx=.1.03583y—.02396x=l.08492y—.O4O39x= .98636y+.O3624x= .94236y+.O897l

.82278y+.12O50x=1.15484y—.10399

.92788y+.05516x= .88932y-f.O8267x =1 .02621y+.02152x=1.02254y—.00l27x= .90026y+.O576lx= .75296y+.17222x=1.09958y—.06126

.95181y+.Ol72lx=1.02889y—.01476x= .97443y+.02O99x= .88309y+.07435x= .91807y-f.07449x= .87283y+.Oll9Ox=1.00755y+.00633

.95216y+.OS2llx= .03452y+.O5258x= .90485y+.04833

x=

x=x=x=x=x=

x=

x

x=x=x=x=x=

x= .88247y+.O8672

SIGMA OF STRAIGHTLINES FITTED TO LOGARITHMS

OF YLELDSU7

y

y =y=

y

y

y

y

y

y

y=y=y=y=

y=y=

y=y=

y=

yy=

y=

y=

y=1y=y=y=y=y=

y .89l75x+.09993y=l.04977x—.03274yl.359O6x—.262O6

—.91038

.84366x+.08739,,=y=rl.05459X—.05048

EQUATIONS 01 LEAST SQUARES STRAIGHT LINES FITTED TO LOGARITHMSOF YIELDS

When x is the independetitvariable

When y is the independentvariable

Page 135: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A134 APPENDIX

TABLE 8—AMERICAN RAILROAD BOND YIELDS1, QUARTERLY, JANUARY 1857-JANUARY1936. MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS AND EQUATIONS

DATES OF IDENTICAL ARITHMETIC AVERAGES STANDARD DEVIATIONS SIGMA EQUATIONS3 OFGRours OF BONDS2 OF Locs OF YIELDS Locs OF SmAIGIIT LINES FITTED TO

___________________ ____________________ _____________________

LOGARITHMS OF YIELDSx (earlier y (later

__

Uy

date) date)y—am

0xIC

Jan. 1857 April 1857 .90277 .90200 .05577 .05520 y= .98971x+.00852April " July " .90200 .91738 .05520 .06091 y=1.10343x—.07791July " Oct. .91738 .99308 .06091 .06918 y . 13578x — .04886Oct. " Jan. 1858 .99308 .93300 .06918 .06620 v= .95694x—.01732Jan. 1858 April " .93493 .89673 .06473 .05627 .86929x+.08400April " July " .89673 .88627 .05627 .05868July " Oct. " .88627 .87047 .05868 .05096 .86841x+.10082Oct. " Jan. 1859 .87047 .26427 .05096 .04906 .96271x+.02626Jan. 1859 April " .86427 .86160 .04906 .05093 y=1,03809x—.03559April " July " .86160 .87993 .05093 .05288July " Oct. " .87993 .87080 .05288 .05281 y= .99859x—.00789Oct. " Jan. 1860 .87080 .87007 .05281 .05930 y=1.12296x—.10780Jan. 1860 April " .87007 .85873 .05930 .05119 .86331x+.10759April " July " .85873 .83953 .05119 .04848 .94705x+.02627July " Oct. " .83953 .84147 .04848 .05116 y=1.05514x—.04436Oct. " Jan. 1861 .84147 .86380 .05116 .05494 y=1.07388x—.03984Jan. 1861 April " .86600 .86107 .05407 .05222 .96565x+.02482April " July " .86107 .86747 .05222 .05446July " Oct. .86747 .87887 .05446 .05282 y— .96985x+-.03755Oct. " Jan. 1862 .87887 .85327 .05282 .04704 .89056x+.07058Jan. 1862 April " .87218 .85453 .04985 .04339 y= .91055x+.06036April ' July " .85453 .82212 .04539 .04121 y= .90788x+.04631July " Oct. .82212 .77959 .04121 .04187 y=t.01591x—.05561Oct. " Jan. 1863 .77959 .73518 .04187 .04106 .98059x—.02928Jan. 1863 April " .74552 .75519 .04625 .04320 y= .93404x+.05884April " Ji.ily " .75519 .76238 .04320 .04452 y1.03064x—.01595July " Oct. .76238 .75938 .04452 .03697 .83033x+.12635Oct. " Jan. 1864 .75938 .78100 .03697 .03567 y= .96494x+.04824Jan. l864April " .77968 .74373 .03537 .03708 y=1.04849x—.07376April " July " .74373 .70395 .03708 .05425 y=1.46276x—.38395July " Oct. .70395 .76914 .05425 .04277 y= .78837x+.21417Oct. " Lan. 1865 .76914 .79309 .04277 .03458 .80869x+.17109Jan. 1865 April " .79232 .83247 .03662 .03398 .92767x±.09746April " July " .83247 .83953 .03398 .03564 y=1.04909x—.03381July " Oct. .83953 .84958 .03564 .02894 .81197x+.16791Oct. " Jan. 1866 .84958 . .86447 .02894 .02559 y= .88408x+.11337Jan. 1866 April " .86932 .87216 .02700 .03247 y=1.20266x—.17334April " July " .87216 .85463 .03247 .02925 .90089x+.06891July " Oct. .85463 .84568 .02925 .03235 y1.lOS73x—.09931Oct. " Jan. 1867 .84568 .85168 .03235 .02867 .88622x+..10222Jan. 1867 April " .85230 .83725 .02851 .03124 y1.09554x—.07648April July " .85725 .85000 .03124 .03264 y=1.04481x—.04566July " Oct. " .85000 .85500 .03264 .03235 .99104•x+.01262Oct. " Jan. 1868 .85500 .85430 .03235 .02901 .89680x+.08754Jan. 1868 April " .85390 .84940 .02916 .03115April " July " .84940 .84470 .03115 .02836 Y .91059x+.07124July " Oct. " I .84470 .85425 .02836 .03241

Oct. " Jan. .85425 .86325 .03241 .03361 y1.03697x—.02258Jan. 1869 April " .85852 .86395 .02922 .02634 y = .90152x+.08998April .. July " .86395 .86124 .02634 .02783 y=1.05648x—.05151July " Oct. " .86124 .87052 .02783 .02939 y=l.05607x—.03901Oct. " Jan. 187C .87052 .87048 .02939 .03075 y=1.04612x—.04019Jan. 1870 April " .87376 .85638 .02716 .02303 .84795x+.11548April " July " .85638 .84814 02303 .01985 y .86168x+.11021July " Oct. ." .84814 .85462 01985 .02287 y=1.15226x—.12266Oct. " Jan. 1871 .85462 .85400 .02287 .02231 y .97580x+,02006Jan. 1871 April " .85400 .84900 .02231 .01832 y= .82090x+.14795April " July " .84900 .84476 .01832 .01764 y .96297X+.02720July " Oct. .84476 .84871 .01764 .02313 y=1.31150x—.25919Oct. " Jan. 1872 .84871 .83376 .02313 .02108 y= .91104x+.06255Jan. 1872 April " .84043 .84283 .02454 .02113 .86074x+.11944April " July " .84283 .83448 .02113 .02613 yl.237O8x—.2O817July " Oct. .83448 .84670 .02613 .02571 y .98374x+.02579Oct. " Jan. 1273 .84670 .84596 .02571 .02418 y= .94048x+.04966Jan. 1873 April " .84652 .84833 .02355 .02.529 y1.07367x—.06055April " July " .84833 .84181 .02529 .02450 .96900x+.01978July " Oct. .84181 .87305 .02450 .03131 y=1.27805x—.20283Oct. " Jan. 1874 .87305 .84790 .03131 .02641 .84350X+.11148Jan. 1874 April " .84.576 .83790 .025.53 .02839

April " Tuly " .83790 .83829 .02839 .03336 y=1.17514x—.14636July " .Oct. .83829 .83210 .03336 I .03497 v=t.04837x—.04674

Page 136: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A135

TABLE RAILROAD BOND YIELDS', QUARTERLY, JANUARY 1857-JANUA;RY1936. MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS AND EQUATIONS—(COntlflued)

DATES OF IDENTiCAL ARITHMETIC AVERAGES STANDARD DEVIATIoNs SIGMA EQUATIONSi OFGROUPS OF OF Locs OF YIELDS Locs OF YIELDS STRAIGHT LINES FITTED TO

___________________

LOGARITHMS OF YIELDSx (earlier y (later =a + xdate) date)

Oct. 1874 Jan. 1875 .83210 .82033 .03497 .03266 .03394x+.04320Jan. 2875 April " .82057 .81110 .03334 .03680 y=1.10391x—.O9474Apri " July " .81110 .80638 .03680 .03456 y= .93899x+.04477July " Oct. .80638 .80462 .03456 .03568 y=1.03233x—.02783Oct. Jan. 1876 .80462 .79195 .03568 .03418 y .95796x+.02116Jan, 1876 April " .79195 .78643 .03418 .03136 .9.t768x+.05967Apri " July " .78643 .78029 .03136 .03473 y=1.10•732x—.09054July " Oct. .78029 .78448 .03473 .03034 y= .87371x+.10273Oct. " Jan. 1877 .78448 .77967 .03034 .03624Jan. 1877 April " .78145 .79125 .03623 .02916 y= .80504x+.16215Api-il " July " .79125 .77745 .02916 .03027 y=1.03782x—.04373July " Oct. .77745 .78265 .03027 .03076 y=1.01634x—.00750Oct. " Jan. 1878 .78265 .77755 .03076 .03212 y=1.04401x—.03954Jan. 1878 April " .73043 .77959 .03216 .02931 y= .91146x+.06824April " July " .77959 .77082 .02931 .03054July " Oct. .77082 .77073 .03054 .03101 y=1.01550x—.01204Oct. " Jan. 1879 .77073 .75659 .03101 .02829 y= .91203x+.05366Jan. 1879 April " .75752 .75252 .02458 .02220 .90323x+.06831April " July " .75252 .73417 .02220 .02475July " Oct. " .73417 .74026 .02475 .02403 y= .97087x+.02748Oct. " Jan. 1880 .74026 .73126 .02403 .02352 .97877x+.00672Jan. l88OtApriI " .74288 .73728 .03275 .03093 y= .94442x+.03569April " July " .73728 .72572 .03093 .03597 y=1.16290x—.13166July " Oct. " .72572 .71424 .03597 .03390 .94256x+.03021Oct. " Jan. 1831 .71424 .69312 .03390 .03307 .97558x—.00368Jan. 1881 April " .69692 .70427 .03510 .03547 y1.01055xApril " •July " .70427 .68565 .03547 .03830July " Oct. " .68565 .70154 .03830 .03676 y= .95976x+.04348Oct. " Jan. 1882 .10154 .70058 .03676 .03929 y=1.06885x—.04926Jan. 1882 April " .70379 .70364 .03939 .03828 y= .97177x+.01972April " July " .70364 .69939 .03828 .03796 y= .99170x+.00159July " Oct. .69939 .70296 .03796 .03672 y= .96737x+.02639Oct. " Jan. 1883 .70296 .70121 .03672 .03256 y= .88682x+.07781Jan. 1883 April " .70145 .70397 .03227 .03116 y= .96575x+.02654April " July " .70397 .70274 .03116 .03046 .97761x+.01453July " Oct. .70274 .70532 .03046 .02971 y= .97531x+.01993Oct. " Jan. 1884 .70532 .69652 .02971 .03363 y=1.13203x—.10192Jan. 1884 Api-il " .69647 .68606 .03310 .02788 .84225x+.09946April " July .68606 .70513 .02788 .03290 y=1.17986x—.10432July " Oct. " .70513 .69863 .03290 .03161 .96080x+.02114Oct. " Jan.0 1885 .69863 .69019 .03161 .03471Jan. 1885 April " .69103 .68191 .03480 .03649 y1.04846x—.0426lApril " July " .68191 .67153 .03649 .03743 y=1.02578x—.02796July " Oct. .67153 .66497 .03743 .03598 y= .96114x+.01934Oct. " Jan. 1836 .66497 .65241 .03598 .03272 y .90944x+.04766Jan. 1886 April " .65216 .64414 .03281 .03085 .940!7x+,03100April " July " .64414 .63684 .03085 .03118July " Oct. .63684 .64476 .03118 .03014 y .96649X+.02926Oct. " Jan. 1887 .64476 .64489 .03014 .03023 y=1.00307x—.00185Jan. 1887 April " .64508 .64870 .03030 .02950 .97349x+,02072April " July " .64870 .64984 .02950 .03156 y=1.06987x—.04418July " Oct. " .64984 .66493 .03156 .03038 y= .96282x+.03927Oct. " Jan. 1888 .66495 .65249 .03038 .03108Jan. 1888 April " .65414 .65392 .02817 .02865 y=1.01682x—.01122April " July " .65392 .64424 .02865 .03227July " Oct. .64424 .64800 .03227 .03542Oct. " Jan. 1889 .64800 .64003 .03342 .03545 y=1.00089x—.0O855Jan. 1889 April " .63850 .63355 .03523 .03610 y=1.02469X—.0207lApril " July " .63355 .62642 .03610 .03205 y= .88767x+.06404July " Oct. .62642 .63295 .03205 .03046 y= .95043x+.03758Oct. " Jan. 1890 .63639 .03046 .02960 .971.79x+.02130Jan. 1890 April " .63989 .64211 .02969 .03005 y=1.01193x—.00541April " July " .64211 .64503 .03005 .02916 .97049x+.02187July " Oct. .64503 .65379 .02916 .02955 y1.01342x±.0001OOct. " Jan. 1801 .65379 .65421 .02955 .02956Jan. 1891. April " .65500 .66136 .02958 .02955 y= .99872x+.00720April " July " .66136 .66979 .02955 .02947 y= .99731x+.01021July " Oct. .66979 .66326 .02947 .02670 y= .90613x+.05634Oct. " Jan. 1892 .66326 .65095 .02670 .02671 y=1.00048x—.01263Jan. 1892 April " .65090 .64674 .02730 .02626 y= .96181x+.02070

Page 137: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A136 APPENDIX

TABLE 8—AMERICAN RAILROAD BOND YIELDS', QUARTERLY, JANUARY 1857-JANUAItY1936. MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS AND EQUATIONS—( Continued)

DATES OF IDENTICAL ARITHMETIC AVERAGES STANDARD DEVIATIONS SIGMA EQUATIONS' OFGROUPS OF BoNDs2 OF LoGs OF YIELDS OF Locs OF YIELDS STRAIGHT LINES FITTED TO

___________________ _____________________ ____________________

LOGARITHMS OF YIEUiSx (earlier y (later y=a+ — xdate) date)

April 1892 July 1892 .64674 .64136 .02626 .02645 y=l.00733x—.01012July " Oct. " .64136 .64626 .02645 .02712 y=1.02519x—.01126Oct. " Jan. 1893 .64626 .64644 .02712 .02679 y= .98797x+.00795Jan. 1893 April " .64649 .64714 .02724 .02786April " July " .64714 .67338 .02786 .03382 y=I.21399x—.11224July " Oct. .67338 .6646S .03382 .02908 y= .85988x+.08562Oct. " Jan. 1894 .66465 .64789 .02908 .02861 y .98365x—.00589Jan. 1894 April " .64783 ..63381 .02910 .02836 y .97433x+.00261April " July " .63381 .63658 .02836 .02995July " Oct. .63658 .62708 .02995 .02917 y= .97408x-f..00700Oct. " Jan. 1895 .62708 .62450 .02917 .02979 y=1.02120x—.01587Jan. 1895 April " .62650 .63297 .03076 .03107April " July " .63297 .61755 .03107 .02936 y .94500x+.01939TjUly Oct. .61755 .61429 .02936 .02944 y=1.00266x—.00490Oct. " Jan. 1896 .61429 .62853 .02944 .03356 y=1.13999x—.07175Jail. 1896 April " .62735 .62300 .03323 .03043 .91573x+.04852April " July " .62300 .62916 .03043 .03362 y=l.10503x—.05927July " Oct. .62916 .63735 .03362 .03396 y=1.01006x+.00186Oct. " Jan. 1897 .63735 .61635 .03396 .03133 .92242x+.02845Jan. 1897 April " .61525 .60744 .03139 .03267 y=1.04061x—.03280April " July " .60744 •59797 .03267 .03304 y=1.01157x—.01650July " Oct. " .59797 .60156 .03304 .03335 y=1.00922x—.00192Oct. " Jan. 1898 .60156 .59144 .03335 .03104 y= .93088x+.03146Jan. 1898 April " .58980 .61006 .03353 .03526 y=1.05161x—.01018April " July " .61006 •59383 .03526 .03460 y= .98113x—.00472July " Oct. " .59383 .58920 .03460 .03140 y= .90766x+.05020Oct. " Jan. 1899 .58920 .57486 .03140 .03312 y=1.03459x—.04650Jan. 1899 April " .57368 .56988 .03341 .03402 yl.0l828X—.Ol429April " July " .56988 .56724 .03402 .03303 .97091x+.01394July " Oct. " .56724 •57779 .03303 .03363 y=1.01838x+.00012Oct. " Jan. 1900 .57779 .58059 .03363 .03501 y=1.04099x—.02088Jan. 1900 April " .58276 .57527 .03561 .03431 y= .96356x+.01375April " July " P57527 .57992 .03431 .03493 y=1.01790x—.00565July Oct. •57992 .58008 .Q3493 .03285 y= .94050x+.03467Oct. " Jan. 1901 .58008 .57192 .03285 .03133 y= .95375x+.01867Jan. 1901 April " .57192 .57005 .03133 .0310! y= .98972x+.00401April " July " .57005 .57370 .03101 .03009 y= .97044x+.02050July " Oct. P37370 .57541 .03009 .03046Oct. " jan. 1902 .57541 .57059 .03046 .02961 .97214x+.01121Jan. 1902 April " .57124 .56905 .02948 .02891 .98063x+.00887

4'April " Juiy .56905 .57416 .02891 .02580 .89253x+.06627Juiy Oct. .57416 .58126 .02580 .02565 .99410x+.01049Oct. " Jan. 1903 .38126 .58361 .02565 .02466 y .96133x+.02483Jan. 1903 April .58338 .59362 .02437 .02200 y= .90297x+.06685

44 •1 IApr'l juty .59362 .60014 .02200 .02142 .97351x+.02224July " Oct. .60014 .60043 .02142 .02255 y=1.05288x—.03145Oct. " Jan. 1904 .60043 .59630 .02255 .02191 y= .97172x+.01285Jan. 1904 April " .59697 .59672 .02183 .01958 .89659x+.06148April " July " .59672 .58828 .01958 .01854 y .94706x+.02315July " Oct. .58828 .58642 .01854 .01840 .99244x+.00259Oct. " Jan. 1905 .58642 .58067 .01840 .01872 y=1.01762x—.01608Jan. 1905 April " .58465 .58570 .02115 .02066 y .97646x+.01481April " July " .58570 .58440 .02066 .02066July " Oct. .58440 .58495 .02066 .01978 y= .95728x-f-.02552Oct. " Jan. 1906 .58495 .58775 .01978 .01996 y100940x—.00270Jan. 1906 April " .58872 .59692 .02001 .01989 .99386x+.01181April " July " .59692 .59900 .01989 .01923 .96669x+.02196July " Oct. " .59900 .60336 .01923 .01762 .91628x+.05451Oct. " Jan. 1907 .60336 .60551 .01762 .01853Jan. 1907 April " .60551 .61526 .01853 .01939 y=1.04655x—.01844April " July " .61526 .62262 .01939 .02246 y=1.lSSlOx—.O899lJuly " Oct. .62262 .64121 .02246 .02530 y=1.12637x—.06009Oct. " Jan. 1908 .64121 .63105 .02530 .02502 y= .98923x—.00325Jan. 1908 April " .63105 .62967 .02502 .02595April " July " .62967 .62246 .02595 .02369 .91277x+.04772July " Oct. " .62246 .61326 .02369 .01958 .82654x+.09877Oct. " Jan. 1909 .61326 .60482 .01958 .01714 .87563,c+.06783Jan. 1909 April " .60709 .60577 .02068 .02032 .98236x+.00939April " July " .60577 .60648 .02032 .01908 .93909x+.03761July " Oct. .60648 .61132 .01908 .01909Oct. " Jan. 1910 .61132 .61327 .01909 .01864 y= .97637x+.01640'

Page 138: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A137

TABLE 8—AIsIERICAN RAILROAD BOND YIELDS', QUARTERLY, JANUARY1936. MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS AND EquATIozcs—(Continued)

DAnS OF IDENTICALGROUPS OF Banns2

x (earlier y (laterdate) date)

ARITHMETIC AVERAGESOF LOGS OF YIELDS

STANDARD DEVIATIONSOF LOGS OF VIEWS

SIGMA EQUATIONS3 OFSTRAIGHT LINES FITTED TO

LOGARITHMS Ott YIELDS

y=a+ —XUIa),

Jan.AprilJulyOct.

1910"""

Jan.AprilJulyOct.

1911"""

3an.AprilJulyOct.

1.912"a

"Jan. 1913AprilJulyOct.

"""

Jan.AprilJuly

1914""

Jan. 1915AprilJulyOct.

"""

Jan.AprilJulyOct.

1916"""

Jan.AprilJulyOct.

1917"""

Jan.April

1918"

JulyOct.

""

Jan.AprilJulyOct.

1919"""

Jan. 1920AprilJulyOct.

"""

Jan.AprilJulyOct.

1921"""

Jan. 1922April

July""

Oct.Jan.AprilJuly

1923"

"Oct. "Jan. 1924AprilJulyOct.

"""

Jan. 1925AprilJulyOct.

"

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1926"""

Jan.AprilJuly

1927""

AprilJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.ApriLJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyJan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.April

JulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Ian.AprilJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.

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.66172

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y=

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Page 139: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A138 APPENDIX

TABLE 8—AMERICAN RAILROAD BOND YIELDS1, QtJARTERLY, JANUARY1936. MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS AND EQUATI0Ns—(Concluded)

DATES OF IDENTICAL ARITHMETIC AVERAGES STANDARD DEVIATIONS SIGMA EQUATIONS3 OFGRouPs OF OF Locs OF YIELDS OF Locs OF YIELDS STRAIGHT LINES FITTED TO

LOGARITHMS OF YIELDSx (earlier y (later I y = a + xdate) date) M7

Oct. 1927 Jan. 1928 .63718 .63004 .01829 .01613 y = .88153x+.06835Jan. 1928 Apr. " .63144 .63600 .01638 .01431 y .87383x+.08423Apr. " July " .63600 .65672 .01431 .01589 y i.11024x —.04939July " Oct. .65672 .65630 .01589 .01463 y .92069x+.05166Oct. " Jan. 1929 .65630 .66302 .01463 .01460 y .99836x+.00780Jan. 1929 Apr. " .66302 .67051 .01460 .01535 y = 1.05123x —.02648Apr. " July " .67051 .67905 .01535 .01553 y = 1.01134x+.00094July " Oct. " .67905 .67623 .01553 .01381 y = .88972x+.07207Oct. " Jan. 1930 .61623 .66328 .01381 .01533 y = 1.10980x —.08720Jan. 1930 Apr. " .65593 .65143 .00936 .00860 y = .91858x+.04891Apr. " July " .65143 .64218 .00860 .01017 y 1.18275x —.12830July " Oct. .64218 .63018 .01017 .01200 y =1.18034x—.12781Oct. " Jan. 1931 .63018 .62939 .01200 .01272 y =1.05979x—.03847Jan. 1931 Apr. " .64041 .64459 .02114 .02389 y = 1.12983x—.07896Apr. " July " .64459 .64390 .02389 .02893 y =1.21132x—.13690July " Oct. .64390 .71349 .02893 .05307 y = 1.83413x—.46751Oct. " Jan. 1932 .71349 .75290 .05307 .05491 y 1.03468x+.01467Jan. 1932 Apr. " .73806 .75750 .04199 .04876 y 1.16126x —.09958Apr. " July " .75750 .76869 .04876 .05858 y =1.20142x—.14139July " Oct. .76869 .71272 .05858 .04266 y = .72832x+.15287Oct. " Jan. 1933 .71272 .70841 .04266 .05875 y =1.37703x—.27303Jan. 1933 Apr. " .71155 .75835 .05698 .06489 y = 1.13882x —.05198Apr. " July " .75835 .68545 .06489 .04367 y .67298x+.17510July " Oct. .68545 .70303 .04367 .05580 y = 1.27780x —.17284Oct. " Jan. 1934 .70303 .68790 .05580 .04807 y = .86149x+.08225Jan. 1934 Apr. " .68211 .63918 .04537 .03338 y = .73254x+.13951Apr. " July " .63918 .62579 .03338 .03535 y = —.05115July " Oct. " .62579 .63636 .03535 .03914 y = 1.10718x —.05650Oct. " Jan. 1935 .63636 .60821 .03914 .03934 y 1.00517x—.03144Jan. 1935 Apr. " .60821 .61239 .03934 .05105 y = 1.29756X —.17680Apr. " July " .61239 .59964 .05105 .04401 y .86215x+.07167July " Oct. .59964 .61125 .04401 .04483 y = 1.01853x+.00050Oct. " Jan. 1936 .61125 .59093 .04483 .04149 y = .92555x+.02519

Note 1. These are the yields in Table 3.Note 2. The variables are the logarithms of bond yields. The first two columns give, of course, only

the dates to Which the yields relate.Note 3. For a description of the nature of these equations see Ch. IV.

Page 140: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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.96468

1.01379

1.02415

1.07705

.92735

1888

1.01907

.99447

1.00334

1.01905

1.07099

1.03211

.99474

1.06935

1.03183

.99011

.96982

1.04235

1889

1.01804

1.08439

.92820

.98275

.95575

.94507

.95681

.96970

1.02436

1.04770

.97946

.94700

1890

1.02716

1.00483

.98044

1.01481

.96691

.98907

1.02372

1.01387

.97640

1.06047

1.00848

.93539

Z18

91.97616

1.05739

.96759

1.01222

.99457

.99065

.97794

.99757

.92883

.97737

.95558

1.07123

1892

.98301

.98752

.99080

.97662

1.02537

1.00593

1.00791

1.02404

.99327

.97140

1.01990

.99721

1893

.96854

1.04732

1.00826

1.05642

1.03585

1.10939

1.06854

.87296

.92183

.93517

.95374

1.10286

1894

.96940

.95905

1.04801

1.03233

.99377

1.02934

1.00633

.99218

97557

1.02418

1.00767

.98949

1895

1.00263

1.00658

1.00067

1.01375

.97125

.95977

1.03903

.98547

.97922

.99162

1.14876

1.00075

2896

.97445

.96203

.97683

.99462

1.04175

1.00648

1.08534

.93011

1.00056

.92542

.97413

1.02323

1897

1.02313

.99921

1.01788

1.00089

1.01918

.99165

.97354

1.06607

.97240

.96379

1.00230

.96363

1898

.99428

1.03473

1.02215

.90915

.99692

1.08250

.92666

.98307

.99637

1.03178

1.01030

1.01169

1899

.99429

1.01654

1.00747

.98303

.98642

1.00127

.99987

1.01609

1.00238

.99661

1.09221

.95635

GD

1900

.98345

1.00406

.97582

1.03150

1.00763

.97934

.98568

.99085

.96297

.98060

.98672

.98572

1901

1.01

076

.985

27.9

9382

1.00

245

.979

47.9

8836

1.01

929

1.01

953

.974

03.9

8560

1.00

085

.985

5019

021.

0173

3.9

7575

.987

87.96495

.95260

.97097

.97917

.99464

1.02072

.97697

1.03669

.94916

1903

.969

96.9

8577

.944

371.

0379

31.04394

.89846

.92121

1.07639

1.06183

1.02252

.97858

.97111

1904

.998

02.93085

.96511

.95166

1.00276

.99243

1.02637

1.00556

.961

60.9

7234

1.01

289

1.03

324

1905

.946

771.

0050

01.

0071

31.

0003

21.

0138

9.9

8419

.991

97.9

8493

.97980

.99360

1.02802

.98821

Page 141: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

I. 0TA

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9 (C

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ON

TH T

O M

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TH S

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S'S

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TO

TH

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GA

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HM

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18 7

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FEB

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AR

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AN

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G. A

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SEPT

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RC

HA

PRIL

MA

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NE

JULY

AuG

.SE

PT.

OcT

.N

ov.

DEc

.JA

N.

1906

.96614

.96939

1.06118

.97783

.99153

.99705

.94454

.96408

1.00623

1.02248

.98813

1.04096

1907

.97960

1.00162

1.06662

1.06249

1.07658

1.01245

1.02477

1.08730

1.01089

1.13861

.94895

.91554

1908

1.09563

.98172

.96426

.89915

1.01722

.99797

.87397

.96252

.98254

.96082

.96978

.93974

1909

.93375

1.00329

1.04862

.95662

.97651

1.00529

.94834

.95649

1.10314

1.03230

.96563

.97949

1910

.97699

.97211

1.08938

1.08617

1.00888

1.00227

.98190

.90960

.99500

1.00824

.99959

.95606

1911

.94662

1.00150

1.02701

.97123

.99198

.99332

1.00743

1.06764

1.01848

.99094

1.00015

.98063

1912

.96734

.99903

1.02294

1.03687

.99512

.99722

.96548

1.03044

.99665

1.00269

.99884

1.00705

1913

1.02414

1.02612

.94379

1.01420

1.13614

.96222

.97284

.99804

.99111

.96762

.97794

.99407

1914

.93964

1,03498

1.04315

1.04342

.96786

.98850

1.12213

1.00172

1915

.99731

1.03670

.98381

.99374

1.00433

1.02441

1.02766

1.03422

.95504

.91472

1.02196

1.01370

1916

.96687

1.00597

1.01904

1.01160

1.03020

1.03979

1.01577

.97547

.96348

.98414

1.04292

.99298

1917

.99496

1.02376

1.06942

.98643

1.01901

.98023

.99326

1.04644

.97745

1.03917

1.06856

1.02497

1918

.88949

.98456

1.01390

.95940

.97122

1.13442

.91997

1.03685

.92936

.92625

.89083

.97095

1919

1.04564

1.12138

.96406

.92052

.96580

1.07511

1.24928

1.00985

.91828

1.06603

1.06480

.95982

__

1920

1.07179

.99076

1.11036

1.07557

.93706

1.03597

.97458

.84261

.92159

1.04395

1.04116

.99037

k19

21.97011

.99274

1.00409

.93954

1.08921

.97968

.95357

.91692

.96507

1.06594

1.04258

1.04403

1922

.96519

.86233

.98970

.96078

1.04022

1.08370

.91231

.95833

.96006

1.02303

.97689

1.02697

1923

.98701

1.01021

1.01268

1.01711

.99882

1.02831

1.00289

.94660

.97547

.96838

.96734

.96652

1924

.94719

.96548

1.02676

.94243

1.02696

1.01060

.91433

1.03837

1.00971

.95087

.94886

.98896

1925

.96545

1.12934

1.06469

1.01268

.90274

.96134

.96644

.97953

.90943

.99463

.99864

1.02642

1926

1.00802

1.00500

.98668

.93005

.89608

1.07264

1.03240

.99264

.95554

1.00969

1.02890

1.03564

1927

.99344

1.07094

1.05506

1.02105

.99793

1.00434

.94002

1.00

836

.96058

.96411

.95484

.95759

1928

.96609

.90716

.99707

1.12336

1.04701

.94395

.95089

1.05553

.91729

.91875

1.08564

1.00093

1929

1.02666

1.09606

.93420

1.00236

1.03405

.97574

1.11215

.87900

.91013

1.19593

.87428

1.06143

1930

1.11145

.97958

.84369

1.07343

1.04656

1.05282

1.07186

.94627

1.16375

1.14188

1.13231

.81966

1931

.98742

.94490

1.21094

1.14488

1.04745

1.01011

1.18094

1.30

789

1.18

749

.935

751.

3478

6.8

2035

1932

.919

431.

0101

71.

2503

11.

3941

31.

0513

0.8

1971

.759

91.9

2230

1.03

917

1.10

066

1.26

562

.988

5319

331.

0837

51.

0569

0.9

9424

.851

38.8

8551

.892

661.

0251

31.

2324

01.

0114

21.

1865

5.9

2696

.783

2519

34.7

6753

.973

66.9

8024

1.02

583

1.06

176

.972

351.

0953

31.

0478

5.9

6466

1.01

373

.983

451.

0082

319

351.06731

1.16802

1.04085

.89383

.98822

.97605

.97582

1.02303

1.02026

1.04301

.95609

.92813

Page 142: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES A141

TABLE 10

SROnT TIME INTEREST RATES, BOND YIELDS AND STOCK PRICES

Col. 1 Call Money Rates at the New York Stock Exchange.

Col. 2 90-day Time Money Rates in New York City.

Col. 3 Commercial Paper Rates in New York City. (January 1857 toDecember 1923 'choice 60-90 day two name paper'; Jan-uary 1924 to January 1936 '4 to 6 month prime doubleand single name paper').

Col. 4 Unadjusted Index Number of the Yields of American RailroadBonds.

Col. 5 Adjusted Index Number of the Yields of American RailroadBonds.1

Col. 6 Index Number of the Prices of American Railroad Stocksweighted by the number of shares outstanding at the beginningof each year.

IThe long time economic drifts has been eliminated from this index number. The month to monthmovements are almost identical with the month to month movements of the unadjusted index given inColumn 4, whereas the knig time movements are the long time movements of the 4.5O Sigma index givenin Table 6.

Page 143: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

4142 APPENDIX

TABLE 10

Date1

CallMoney

2Time

Money

3Comi.Paper

5Adjust.Bonds

6StockPrices

1857JFMAMJJAS0ND

88977669

151887

00.75.25.88.38.60.75.50.00.00.00.00

8.818.819.259.008.197.908.50

10.0018.0024.0011 .508.00

9.6449.5779.5929.6279.7319.9499.991

10.08611. 12811.92611. 10510.661

6.6216.5776.5926.6196.6966.8496.8826.9527.6748.2307.6687.367

21.2220 8320.8220.4120.1018.8718.6117.7015.1412.8314.6515.27

1858JFMAMJJAS0ND

6.504.884.444.203 .503.603 .503 .504.123.554.054.00

7.505.755.505.193.644.313.714.054.444.404.694.62

1099999999888

376857

.525.478377323260

• 255.149.907• 802• 774

76666666666.6.

.175820595

.566

.500467.425427356192122107

15.6917.1617.4516.5616.8216.1016.1715 9815 7816.2516.1615.88

1859JFMAMJJAS0ND

4.315.004.544.505.885.965.596.385.966.035.255.81

4.625.505.175 .286.476.896.627.046.546.756.196.75

8.7768.7588.7578.7268.8879.1209.1109.0478.8688.9228.9698.935

6.1116 . 1016.1056 . 0866.2026.3686.3646.3236.1996.2406.2756.255

151515151414141515151515

93.73• 66.2880

.91

.98

.10

.70

.40

.57

.43

1860JFMAMJJAS0ND

655554556677

.69

.88

.50

.25

.31

.75

.25

.63

.50

.75

.13

.25

8.007.105.905.605.805.505.406.107.006.80

11.1012.90

8 9208.8558.7798.6718 5078.3578 2888.2588.2748.3338.7319.115

6.2476.2066.1566 0845.9735.8725.8285.8125 8285 8756.1636.440

151515161617171819181615

.11

.21

.85

.68

.97

.20

.73

.8128

.62

.57

.49

Page 144: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES A143

TABLE 10 (Continued)

Date

1861JFMAMJJAS0ND

1862JFMAMJJAS0ND

1863JFMAMJJAS0ND

1864JFMAMJJAS0ND

1Call

Money

5.755.505.755.136.255.505.504.505.756.506.506.50

6.506.005.505.504.604.105.404.004.304.606.306.00

6.106.306.105.205.306.106.106.006.606.507.007.00

7.006.105.906.805.606.706.806.907.006.806.906.60

2Time

Money

3Comi.Paper

8.007 .306.106.208.106.505.506.506.306.806.307,00

6.305.006.306.105.004.505.504.505.004.504.705.50

5.305.705.305.305.205.405.605.305.605.706.606.80

7.306.505.606.706.906.806.507.709.009.208.307.80

4Unadj.Bonds

8.7818.6878.6048 .6769.1309.0558.8128.8338.0639.0428.9718.952

8.5138.1728.2358.1647.7347.5197.5697.4007.1496.8636.7006.741

6.1895.9796.0596.3256.3246.3816.4326.4596.4406.3706.5066.617

6.7026.6456.4246.1706.145.6.0245.6515.6606.0746.5496.4806.658

5Adj ust,Bonds

6.2106.1536.1016.1606.4926.4496.2856.3106.4156.4826.4426.440

6.136.5.0025.9595.9205.6215.4765.5255.4145.2445.0454.9394.981

4.5854.4404.5104.7214.7304.7854.8354.8664.8634.8284.9355.032

5.1075.0764.9174.7344.7244.6424.3634.3794.7105.0895.0455.194

6StockPrices

17.0917.0217.4116.0914.8615.0115.6315.3015.2715.8616.0615.59

16.5417.1217.6517.5118.3419.2318.8019.4420.8322.8923.0823.54

26.6027.5327.0427.3629.9629.0120.6931.7931.8332.6932.7832.49

33.8635.4837.9938.68

37.6937.3437.6235.4233.1434.8834.58

Page 145: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A144 APPENDIX

TABLE 10 (Continued)

2Time

MoneyDate

1865JFMAMJJAS0ND

1866JFMAMJJAS0ND

1867JFMAMJJAS0ND

1868JFMAMJJAS0ND

1Call

Money

7.006.107 .005.605.404.905.505.906.007.006.806.80

5.506.065.565.385.404.884.884.134.194.356.006.38

7.185.816.066.194.806.194.504.255.63

10,767.226.50

5.654.699.35

11 .535.503.504.153.754.879.04

17.0311.40

Comi.Paper

8.008.509.008.507.206.707.307.707.107.608.007.80

7.377.287.326.696.055.565.895.895.255.456.696.88

7.407.067.197.176.677.386.556.507.128.408.567.94

7.066.507.678.006.625.726.506.626.757.44

10.008.25

4Tjnadj.Bonds

6.9087.1007 . 4687.5777.5377.8467.7017.7347.7817.8717.9938.050

8.1438.1898.2728.2028.0397.9907.8737.8047.7517.7187.6687.790

7.8227.8447.8567.9137.9327.9287.7847.7687.7847.8757.9537 . 985

7.8597.7707,7437.7807.7257.6997.6927.7117.7887.8697.9598.031

5Adjust.Bonds

5.4015.5625.8605.9575.9356.1906.0866.1216.1666.2476.3536.408

6.4916.5346.6076.5586.4346.4006.3116.2596.2226.1976.1606.259

6.2886.3076.3176.3646.3806.3756.2596.2456.2576.3306.3906.415

6.3126.2396.2166.2456.1996.1766.1696.1836.2456.3086.3806.437

6StockPrices

32.9332.1629.1728.7529.3928.8330.0729.7330.9531.8432.1231.65

30.2029.4429.5430.0330.6531.0531.5932.8032.9533.9533.4532.78

31.5131.2231.0130.3330.6831.7432.8833.0332.9832.9132.8133.29

34.5035.3035.1234.9136.1236.7136.7236.3436.6637.2136.1636.88

Page 146: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES A145

TABLE 10

1 2Date Call Time

Money Money

1869J 12.02F 6.74M 9.02A 9.73M 6.75J 23.67J 9.79A 6,38S 19.54

. 0 5.63N 6.25D 7.96

1870J 6.19F 5.50M 5.15A 5.63 ....M 4.56J 4.20J 5.06A 4.70S 5.500 5.25N 5.50D 11.45

1871J 6.49F 4.13M 4.20A 5.84M 3.55J 3.00J 3.25A 2.80S 4.440 12.36N. 6.35D 10.25 .

1872J 8.78 ....F 6.93M 8.44A 13.68M 6.20J 4.50 .

J 3.65A 3.81S 10.330 6.43N 7.73D 20.06

3Comi.Paper

8.317.699.409.887.819.6510.259. 56

10.9410.3811.9410.17

9.007 .387.507.196.385.466.387.187.257.287.258.75

7.226.626.256.785.505.064.905.526.66

10.039.289.94

8.307.568.628.667.206.006.457.56

10.0010.8011 .6210.83

4 5 6Unadj. Adjust. StockBonds Bonds Prices

8.036 6.439 38.238.048 6.449 38.528.103 6.494 38.238.133 6.518 38.898.021 6.428 40.598.003 6.418 40.968.084 6.483 40.878.065 6.471 41.448.150 6.545 38.758.264 6.639 38.448.305 6.676 38.168.350 6.717 37.52

8.263 6.651 3S.078.006 6.451 39.297.901 6.371 39.057.934 6.403 39.667.862 6.350 41.227.797 6.304 41.547.781 6.297 40.277.862 6.368 39.547.888 6.394 39.897.903 6.412 40.067.919 6.431 40.067.959 6.468 39.61

7.890 6.418 39.707.841 6.383 40.117.819 6.369 40.977.797 6.355 42.057.741 0.312 43.007.730 6.307 42.697.720 6.301 41.917.681 6.270 42.187.654 6.250 42.387.797 6.368 40.257.850 6.412 40.587.788 6.359 41.38

7.562 6.174 42.297.522 6.139 42.557.614 6.213 43.877.600 6.199 45.207.601 0.196 45.037.556 6.155 44.567.462 6.074 44.197.541 6.131 43.577.619 6.189 43.037.672 6.224 42.957.727 6.262 42.687.742 6.266 43.82

Page 147: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A146 APPENDIX

TABLE 10 (Continued)

Date CallMoney

1873

TimeMoney.

7.2010.3013.2627.526.09

6StockPrices

JFMAMJJAS0ND

9.289.38

10.1211.408.12

4.633.804.63

61.2314.919.407.88

7.6587.6407.6577.6927.6717.6317.5767.5897.7348.1508.1797.953

6.836.447.06

14.2816.5014.509.80

6.1906.1666.1706.1876.1606.1186.0626.0626.1666.4866.4976.304

44.2544.7944.4243.6643.7343.3643.2142.9839.7436.4235.1138.28

1874JFMAMJJAS0ND

5444a2222233

60.13.00.15.13

.50

.75

.50

.70

.94

.00

.80

76665555

6556

.44

.00

.14

.25

.6656

.61

.44

.25

.81

.6200

7.6857.5707.5687.5537 . 6207.5577.5647.5577.5257.4567.3507.338

6.0806.9795.9665.9435.9855.9275.9215 9065 8725.8095.7205.703

404140393838383839383939

36.47

736260

.232952

.0996

.05

.10

1875JFMAMJJ

AS0ND

223322222

a45

.75

.50

.95

.50

.75

.35

.50

.19

.35

.31

.00

.17

5.255.195.905.444.564.554.314.945.896.316.396.61

7777777

76

666

255.214.195.105056091.024• 006956.998• 947.867

55555S555555

631595573

.499458

.480

.425

.410• 369.400.360• 299

39.4139.2739.6440.0638 3337.6237.6537.8037.4236.9037.3837.38

1876JFMAMJJAS0ND

5.833.633.753 693.202.562.061.701 .943.003.855.00

6.445.335.395.505.054.753.813.604.755.675.445.88

6.7956 7226.6746.7056.7366.6996.6166.5756.6726.6756 6586.652

5 2435 1885.1525.1775.2045.1785.1175.0895.1695.1755 1655 165

38.2938.8739 0237.4835.9335.6035.2233.6531.7131.3930 7230.55

Page 148: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES A147

TABLE 10 (Continued)

1 2 3 4 5 6Date Call Time Comi. ljnadj. Adjust. Stock

Money Money Paper Bonds Bonds Prices

1877J 5.37 5.55 6.607 5.135 30.29F 3.31 4.50 6.649 5.172 28.39M 2.94 4.44 6.737 5.247 27.05A 3.69 4.38 6.749 5.260 25.07M 2.45 4.00 6.690 5.220 24.99J 1.75 4.06 6.605 5.159 23.59J 1.75 4.14 6.538 5.112 24.39A 3.40 5.64 6.569 5.143 25.97S 4.31 6.38 6.588 5.164 27.70O 6.10 7.25 6.618 5.193 28.48N 5.38 6.19 6.596 5.182 27.97D 6.00 5.62 6.547 5.149 27.84

18789.76 5.85 6.543 5.152 27.84

F 4.75 5.31 6.533 5.149 27.28M 4.88 5.12 6,534 5.156 27.75A 6.18. 5.36 6.529 5.157 28.61M 3.50 4.53 '6.486 5.127 28.62J 2.56 3.81 6.404 5.069 29.39

1.75 3.60 6.399 5.069 29.91A 1.81 3.81 6.440 5.105 29.56S 2.31 4.62 6.431 5.103 30.20O 5.00 5.45 6.397 5.079 29.91N 3.81 ... 5.12 6.349 5.043 29.80D 4.38 5.06 6.322 5.026 29.69

1879J 3.05 4.33 6.188 4.922 31.15F 3.06 3.81 6.018 4.789 32.33M 4.50 5.06 6.118 4.869 31.66A 4.40 5.45 6.117 4.870 32.66M 3.81 4.44 5.974 4.758 34.33J 3.31 4.25 5.918 4.715 34.86J 2.95 3.90 5.864 4.673 35.46A 7.85 5.56 5.857 4.668 35.95S 5.50 5.78 5.961 4.751 37.25O 12.34 5.94 5.945 4.739 41.17N 8.73 6.25 5.921 4.720 43.29D 5.80 5.95 5.876 4.685 43.43

1880J 5.00 5.38 5.824 4.643 45.26F 4.63 5.31 5.750 4.585 46.22M 7.28 5.50 5.734 4.571 46.97A 6.55 5.50 5.747 4.580 46.35M 4.06 5.19 5.736 4.572 42.59J 3.00 4.55 5.691 4.535 42.62J 2.50 4.44 5.600 4.463 44.61A 2.50 5.03 5.543 4.417 46.52S 2.70 5.25 5.505 4.486 46.49O 2.88 5.12 5.453 4.344 48.14N 6.05 5.44 5.326 4.243 51.12D 11.20 6.00 5.243 4.176 53.69

Page 149: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A148 APPENDIX

TABLE 10 (Continued)

Date1

CallMoney

2Time

Money

3Comi.Paper

4Unad j.

Bonds

5Adjust.Bonds

6StockPrices

1881

JFMAMJJAS0ND

4.8115.917.484.443.383.153 .44

4.65.5.25

5.445.206 .00

5.255.385.555.194.063,504.004.955.696.256.306.25

5.1945.2495.3025.2835.1445.0645.0665 . 1065.1995.2505.2215.2.50

4.1374.181.4.2244.2094.0994.0364.0384.0714.1474.1894.1684.192

56.38'55.77

56.5156.2158.5159.00.56.8055.7456.1255.2555.6154.03

1882

FNI

AMJjAS0ND

5.434.504.654.063.003.563.003.957.255.507.804.63

5.505.475.645.064.85.5.124.62.5.656.756.676.505.88

555

555555555

• 242

273298240.209.212.190226.246.232

255.250

4.1874.2144.2364.1924.1704. 1744.1594.1904.2084.2004.2214.219

535151515050535555545252

.12

.89

.64

.60

.98

.68

.68

.36

.86.46

.18.50

1S83

FMAMJJAS0ND

4.504.13

10.386.063.552.002.132.502 .44

2.702.002.13

5.505.386.385.815.355.504.785.616 .00

6'. 00

5.695.50

5.2055.2415.2595.2335.2285.2235.219.5 .2585.2625.249.5.211

5.185

4.1854.2174.2344.2164.2134.2114.2104.2434.2494.2404.2104.192

52.3551.0551.7352.9551.8852.3651.4049.1149.7248.4549.1048.13

1884JFMAMJJAS0ND

1112

14

31

11111

.90

.88

.75

.10

.98

.4490.75

.75

.95

.44

.50

4.894.754.624.72.5.06

5.755.955.50.5.50

5.505.195.00

5.1495.0955.0525.0215.1155.2385.2535.1715.1795.1725.1785.133

4.1634.1204.0874.0634.1404.2394.2524.1874.1954.1904.1964.159

46.7448.0147.8546.0442.2639.2040.3142.7741.1739.8438.9338.95

Page 150: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES A149

TABLE 10 (Continued)

6StockPrices

1885JFMAMJJAS0ND

1.191.441.311.351 .441.191 .351.501.552.132.692.75

4.694.504.473 .973.683.553.503.683.754.004.444.50

.5.0765.0334.9874.9744.9534.8924.8564.8464 8294.7824.7494.723

444443

3

3

3

33

3

.113079042033

.017• 967• 939• 931.918880

• 853833

38.1239.1339.2939.2238 6338.3339.9842.1041.5543.8246.61.46.43

1886JFMAMJJAS0ND

2.132.062.652.382.883.352.255.31.5.905.065.638.70

4.313.903.874.254.063 .853.945.195.816.065.925.97

4.6434.5624.5464.5584.5544.5174.4824.4954.5624.5634.5624.592

3.7683.7033.6903 7003.6973.6673.6383.6483.7033.7033.7023.726

464746454547474849505150

.64

.38

.60

.95

.10

.13

.84.30

.45• 81

.88

.70

1887JFMAMJJAS0ND

4.3.5

6t)

7455445

1956.05.13

.13

.20

.75

.15

.13

.19

.60

.00

.54.5555666656

.50

.81

.35.38.21.1319

.35

.94

.38

.75

.00

4.5644.5754.5954.6014.5864.5924.6154.6564.7454.7774.7344.715

333333333333

703.710• 725729.715.718735765835.859.821.803

50.1149.7150.85.52.2053.0651.7150.3849.0748.4346.5747,2647.10

1888JFMAMJAS0ND

32

2

2

1

1

1122

24

.69

.70

.75

.63

.80

.50

.44

• 5.5

.81

.60

.56

.13

47 .325.604.855.225.404.824.254.084.365.285.074.754.97

444444444444

643.614

.638

.640620

.595

.541

.535• 572• 582.564.551

3.7423.7163.7323.7313.7123.6903.6443.6373.6643.6713 6553.643

4645454544454647464544

.92

.16

.31

.88

.10

.40

.02

.32

.82

.39

.55

Page 151: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A150 APPENDIX

TABLE 10 (Continued)

Date

1889JFMAMJJAS0ND

1890JFMAMJJAS0ND

1891JFMAMJJAS0ND

1892JFMAMJJAS0ND

1Call

Money

3.302.313.063.882.553.003.553.884.818.307.138.00

7.704.254.254.304.884.754.60

11 .636.755.007.005.00

3.902.882.883.304.383.252.202.134.504.254.382.94

2.402.002.002.001.501.401.882.054.135.63.5.156.81

2.Time

Money

4.804.945.064.505.205.004.856.006.256.007.007.00

5.224.384.754.205.584.504.555.565.785.395.004.40

3.313.123.552.882.622.703.002.954.505.505.385.50

3Comi.Paper

4.654.254.504.293.853.884.405.165.286.006.006.09

5.355.035.505.115.065.005.055.595.755.906.757.33

5.835.005.255.085.385.505.005.755.785.585.064.83

4.163.693.983.473.162.953.473.964.715.165.145.50

4Unadj.Bonds

4.4994.4454.4574.4484.3964.3474.3724.3834.3884.4374.4754.491

4.4724.4744.4944.4954.4944.5124.5254.5644.5904.6184.6764.732

4.6224.6194.6774.6914.7274.7894.7824.7814.7554.7094.6754.629

4.5774.5474.5544.5334.5084.4924.4774.4864.5314.5294.5384.556

5Adjust.Bonds

3.5993.5553.5653.5573.5163.4763.4963.5063.5123.5513.5833.597

3.5843.5883.6073.6113.6133.6323.6453.6813.7053.7333.7843.832

3.7473.7503.8003.8163.8493.9013.8993.9013.8833.8483.8233.789

3.7493.7263.7343.7203.7013.6893.6793.6873.7253.7243.7323.746

6StockPrices

45.1945.5644.3144.0545.2145.7144.5445.6347.2046.7446.6846.47

46.9346.4546.1447.1449.0348.6348.1446.9646.0743.9641.1140.45

42.3242.7241.7643.3443.3042.3041.8143.5947.4547.4746.5048.06

48.6248.5349.1448.8548.6848.2648.3248.6447.0847.9347.3946.84

Page 152: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES A151

Date

TABLE 10 (Continued)

6StockPrices

1893JFMAMJJAS0ND

4384387'532I1

.00

.0020

.88

.60

.88

.75

.50

.75

.38

.70

.16

44.5556S7'5432

.88

.12

.9090.86.08.75.4075.88.4062

5.104.976.805.756.698.47

10.8810.608.285.914.383.66

4.5314.4084.5344.5394.5944.6704.8244.9404.7894.7264.6224.554

3.7263 6973.7273.7313.7753.8363.9624.0563.9303.8783.7913.734

47.7046.7145.1245.4242.1440.1736.5835.8537.8538.4739.2238.08

1894JFMAMJJAS0ND

111111111111

020009131000000000000844

222221222222

.61

.56

.50

.50

.00

.88

.00

.45

.38

.0039.38

3.483.303.033.102.932.913.003.073.282.762.792.88

.31

.8090

.22

4.5474.4034.4524.4034.4084.4134.4304.4054.3744.3344.8034.302

333333333333

727.681648

.606607611623602576542516

.514

373738393736363738373736

.6395

.33

.68

.53

.32

.22

.77

1895JFMAMJJAS0ND

1 .351 .502.252.251.321.161.401.031 .562.171.974.56

2.553.193.383.412.402.002.392.502.692.852.504.12

3.103.623.913,972.772.622.943.474.034.784.134.75

4.3104.3514.3674.3744.3184.2514.2204.1704.1774.1894.2084.271

333333333333

520551562

.566519462.435.392396404.418467

36.2635.7335.4536.0338.8639,7740.4241.0541.3840.8539.5037.14

1896JFMAMJJAS0ND

4 903 943 503 022.531 .942.074.695.45

11.136.251.95

6.005.253.883.703.123.123.907.507.898.444.813.10

6 005.815 22.5.274.534.255.057.818.308.365.343.73

4.3314.2844.2894.2864.2664.2534.3494.5554.4774.4344.3264.275

3.5153.4753.4793.4753.4563,4453.5213.6873 6223 587

3.456

36.6238.1037.2937.6737.5137.0034.9033.0734.5435.2237.1836.18

Page 153: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A152 APPENDIX

TABLE 10 (Continued)

Date

1897J1?

MAMJJAS0ND

1898J• F

MAM

,j.

S0ND

1899JFMAMJJAS0ND

1900JFMAMJJAS0ND

1Call

Money

1 .781.631 .621 .501.411 .201.191 .252.222.501.812.92

2.501 .782.172 .971 .951.251 .251.703.782.252.102.41

2.722.474.105.133.522,634.473.276.387 .50

7.6011.13

4.152.253.943.062.001.691 .531 .301.613.575.065.13

2Time

Money

2.622.502.832.502.502.222.002.693.203.193.003.40

2.882.694.605.813.722.782.562.953.692.692.903.00

2.893.034.003.883.193 .01)3.624.305.505.355.966.12

4.804.254.563.503.003.063.363.613.884.954.334.78

3Comi:Paper

3.313.003.333.533.533.123.403.724.104.193.383.42

3.253.124.655.754.653 243.663.644.113.413.303.03

2.903.053.863.693.603.313.664.354.945.195.425.88

4.934.404.884.253.703.684.034.194.345.054.404.75

4ljnadj.Bonds

4.2224.1944.1354.1474.1314.0954.0594.0804.0904.0924.0724.019

3 .9964.0004.0934.1894.1454.0834.0334.0024.0213.9893 , 949

3.8593.8643.8653.8263.7933.7833.8033.8243.8593.8973.9183.960

3.9233.8893.8753.8563.8863.9003.8983.8973.8983.8983.8703.838

5Adjust.Bonds

3.4133.3893.3423.3503.3383.3083.2793.2963.3043 .3053.2893.247

3 . 2283 .2333.3083.3863.3513.3023.2623.2383.2543.2293.1973.168

3.1273.1323.1343.1033.0783.0713 . 0893. 1073.1383.1703.1903.226

3.1973.1723.1643.1503.1783.1923.1923.1943.1993.2023.1833.160

6StockPrices

36.0935.6535.8134.6834.8436.4537.8540.3942.2141.1339.7340.77

41.7241.5239.6338.7741.1642.0642.6744.4744.6543.7844.7347.26

51.2553.2553.0753.8151 .9051.1453.0854.3053.6953.4254.5251.78

52.3053.4354.7755.7953.5752.2351 .9552.4551.5353.2956.9061.06

Page 154: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES

TABLE 10 (Continued)

Date1

CallMoney

2Time

Money

A153

3 4Unadj.Bonds

5Adjust.Bonds

6StockPrices

1901JFMAMJJ

0ND

322464424346

.07

.00

.34

.30

.88

.31

.30

.44

.34

.55

.19

.25

333443445445

.83

.25

.28

.14

.36

.56

.33

.38

.06

.65

.69

.19

4.033 .693.753.973.973.944.304.504.944.654.724.94

333333333333

824.804

• 801808.835.821• 838.853.858.854• 825• 824

333333333333

.152

.140

.141

.151

.178

.172

.190• 208.217

.210200205

636668747178727374747776

03.01.29.36.47.33.17.93.44.84.86-.9

1902jFMAM

S0ND

42355233

10746

.57

.38

.94

.10

.56

.84

.52

.78

.80

.63

.88

.81

444444447766

.5300

.00

.25

.75

.3560.72.83

.44

.44

.80

44

4444445556

.50

.00

.34

.48

.53

.44

.62

.84

.61

04P.(.D

.00

3333

3

3333333

• 81.0

• 801.799.791804818833

• 848• 863.897.906• 928

333333333333

.198

.197

.201

.200

.217• 234.252.271.200.325

.339

.364

77 9478.5278.6281.6481.9582 2585.3287.9188.0185.1181 8980 29

1903JFMAMjjAS0ND

5.752.886.004.192.443.052.502.032.322.695.195.50

4.974.595.634.963.924 .284.584.915.255.005.815.23

5455455565

5

.12

.48

.61

.22

.75

.08

.44

04.0084

.97

.85

3.9183.9323.9784.0113.9914.0244.0704.1154.1184.0744.0404.047

333

33

33

333

33

362380427462.451

.486

.532• 578.586554

• 530542

84.2382.7578.9875.5674.3570 .38

68.4366.4265.5064.0964.3566.84

1904

FMAMjjAS0ND

211111101223

.34

.81.75.38.55.13.03.90.53.0380.13

4.033.693.172.692.612.312.442.353.253. 5J3.753.59

4.884.784.684.063.923.613.533.884.314.404.134.28

444443333333

.035

.044056032

• 016.992.953.941.944936926

.915

3.537550

3.565:3.5493.5393.5223.4913.4843.4903.4873.4803.473

67 8565 8365.7567.4465.7466.0369.0871 .4274.6478.9182.2583.53

Page 155: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A154 APPENDIX

TABLE 10 (Continued)

1 2 3 4 3 6Date Call Time Corni. Unadj. Stock

Money Money Paper Bonds Bonds Prices

1905J 2.25 2.93 3.97 3.885 3.449 86.05F 2.19 3.10 3.83 3.874 3.441 90.39M 3.20 3.24 3.93 3.886 3.453 03.01A 3.25 3.44 3.97 3.893 3.461 91.58M 2.42 3.18 3.08 3.809 3.467 87.13J 2.50 3.07 3.75 3.804 3.464 88.72J 2.31 3.09 4.12 3.882 3.455 01.53A 2.05 3.28 4.20 3.885 3.458 95.46S 3.56 4.28 4.72 3.886 96.300 5.31 4.90 4.95 3.887 3.460 07,38N 7.70 5.71 5.58 3.912 3.483 96.18D 16.50 6.00 5.81 3.923 3.491 96.94

1906J 8.65 5.08 5.05 3.912 3.482 09.84F 4.63 5.25 5.03 3.932 3.499 99.42M 4.88 5.22 .5.28 3.966 3.529 97.61A 9.50 5.69 5.44 3.986 3.545 96.25M 4.15 4.05 5.32 4.003 3.559 93.78j 3.25 4.38 5.25 3.990 3.547 95.57J 2.97 4.50 5.46 4.005 3.558 93.78A 4.44 5.39 5.96 4.027 3.576 100.85S 9.38 7.19 6.56 4.056 3.600 103.95O 5.15 6.13 6.30 4.045 3.588 102.91N 7.50 7.10 6.25 4.038 3.581 102.46D 14.00 7.88 6.25 4.054 3.594 101.57

1907J 6.15 5.78 6.15 4.065 3.602 98.16F 4.38 '5.25 5.94 4.088 3.621 94.50M 6.38 6.22 6.18 4.159 3.683 85.02A 2.35 4.42 5.94 4.159 3.681 85.58M 2.31 3.97 5.47 4.181 3.700 82.88J 3.13 4.44 5.44 4.233 3.745 80.67J 4.55 5.10 5.75 4.231 3.742 83.71A 3.06 6.41 6.25 4.286 3.791 78.97S 4.00 5.72 6.81 4.340 3.840 79.01o 21.00 8.05 7.10 4.419 3.909 72.08N 12.25 13.50 7.25 4.590 4.062 67.87D 14.60 10.00 7.83 4.474 3.959 71.03

1908j 4.75 5.36 6.47 4.316 3.820 73.71F 1.81 4.22 5.06 4.302 3.810 70.93M 1.85 3.57 5.68 4.335 3.841 72.98A 1.72 2.85 4.46 4.303 3.814 76.37M 1.66 2.01 3.94 4.261 3.779 80.74J 1.52 2.32 3.64 4.255 3.777 80.93J 1.22 2.29 3.75 4.230 3.757 83.18A 1.06 2.56 3.60 4.185 3.720 85.95S 1.35 2.57 3.93 4.151 3.693 85.40O 1.44 3.10 4.06 4.140 3.686 86.41N 1.75 3.31 4.03 4.102 3.657 91.76D 2.90 3.20 3.85 4.083 3.643 94.28

Page 156: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES A155

TABLE 10 (Continued)

Date

1909JFMAMJJAS0ND

1910JFMAMJJAS0ND

1911JFMAMJJAS0ND

1912JFMAMJJAS0ND

1

CallMoney

1.812.251 .851 .941 .841 .872.002.172.694.314.655.03

4.722.782.883.283.632.772.411 .552.003.133.233.38

3.182.282.282.302.312.402.362.312.282.332.724.03

2.422.282.423.032.752.752.882.844.635.336.386.50

2Ti inc

Money

2.662.782.652.472.602.552.383.293.744.754.864.64

4.313.693.904.093.933.403.963.784.224.784.503.91

3.383.142.862.752.782.812.883 .203.503.623.624.12

2.952.893.443.503.193.123.584.105.505.755.885.87

3 4 5Corni. Unadj. Adjust.Paper Bonds Bonds

3.72 4.058 3.6253.53 4.031 3.6053.50 4.042 3.6203.50 4.046 3.6273.44 4.041 3.6283.25 4.058 3.6483.38 4.052 3.6484.04 4.063 3.6624.18 4.083 3.6855.03 4.097 3.7025.05 4.111 3.7195.11 4.116 3.727

4.75 4.116 3.7324.44 4.121 37394.50 4,140 . 3.7614.75 4.183. 3.8044.7.5 4.201 3.8244.92 4.218 3.8425.38 4.240 3.8665.43 4.232 3.8635.53 4.183 3.8205.56 4.158 3.8015.50 4.187 3.8304.66 4.184 3.829

3.99 4.174 3.8234.06 4.177 3.8273.90 4.191 3.8423.65 4.186 3.8403.62 4.173 3.8293.68 4.182 3.8303.78 4.187 3.8444.19 4.200 3.8574.53 4.217 3.8734.36 4.209 3.8663.94 4.188 3.8474.62 4.195 . 3.853

3.90 4.187 3.8463.75 4.178 3.8374.19 4.195 3.8524.14 4.204 3.8604.19 4.210 3.8654.00 4.224 3.8764.52 4.234 3.8855.00 4.257 3.9055.56 4.279 3.9235.03 4.276 3.9195.72 4.275 3.9176.00 4.291 3.931

6StockPrices

95.5293.5504.9898.63100.81102.21103.88105.83105 .29105.01103.10104.45

102.5999.40

101.7199.6698.3293.5688.9190.7091.2195.0094.1091.83

94.2595.4394.4594.3495 .95

98.2398.1793.7189.0290.3793.8093.37

93.2092.3194.1796.4695.7095.2595.2897.6597.6297.1096.4293.78

Page 157: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A156 APPENDIX

TABLE 10 (Continued)

Date

1913JFMAMJJAS0ND

1914.1

FMAMJJA

0ND

1015jFMAMJ.JAS0ND

1916JFMAMJJAS0ND

1Call

Money

3.013.314.193.432.752,282 .222.252.893.613.754.58

2.571.781 .901 .821.781.852.746.256.006.005.413.38

2.131 .971 .932.091 .941 .831 .851.761.791 .821 .881 .93

1 .881.881 .902.102 .282 .973.132.332.782.633.044.44

2Ti me

Money

4.114.535.374.303.944.134.544.504.625.044.945.03

3.673.033.002.812.442.543.667.636.906.505.223.87

3.192.882.852.912.842.702.782.812.752 .752.722.58

2.752.762.822.882.883 .503 .973.233.323.363.424.25

3

CornLPaper

4.814.905.765.525.355.886.046.005.815.665.565.69

4.533.853.843.743.883.864.446.346.706.445.504.35

3.853.753.383.663 .723 .653 .253.533.283.222.993.09

3.123.123.123.123,123.623.973 .723.383.383.493.91

4Unadj.Bonds

4.2764.2924.3624.4134.4644.5124.5104.4674.4274.4644.5214.533

4.4514.3834.4054.4054.4064.3944.441

**$

*

4.657

4.5954.5904.6244.5804.5914.6274.6974.7334.7484.6474.5074.492

4.4764.4644.4804.4994.5104.5164.5304.5504.5374.4794.4414.443

5Adjust.Bonds

3.9163.9303.9924.0374.0834.1274.1244.0834.0454.0784.1284.138

4.0623.9984.0164.0144.0124.0004.041

****

4.225

4.1664.1584.1874.1454.1524.1824.2434.2744.2854.1924.0644.048

4.0324.0194.0324.0474 . 0554.0604.0704.0864.0744.0203.9843.985

****

6StockPrices

93.2290.7588.9488.7686 .2582.3183.3584.6484.9682.0481.0880.88

83.3883.9981.6879.7780.2879.8575.72

72.13

73.2371.oo73.2577.1775.0974.5472.8475.0477.0081.1684.7084.05

82.6380.7580.2979.7481.9583.2782.3881.7783.0385.1784.5382.91

*St.ock Exchange closed.

Page 158: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES A157

TABLE 10 (Continued)

Date

1917JFMAMJJAS0ND

1918JFMAMJJAS0ND

1919JFMAMJJAS0ND

1920jFMAi\.lJJAS0ND

1Call

Money

2.052.412.282.473.074.693.352.994,534.004.175.16

4.104.995.204.225.035.005.635.886.006.005.855.39

4.785.064.885.405.256.636.555.135.787.94

11.068.85

8.1910.008.097.297.157.508.297.237.107.757.907 .00

2Time

Money

3.134.063.753.974.424.914.324.495.505.575.445.56

5.655.816 .006.006.005.785.725.916 .006.006.005.68

5.185.315.505.805.505.786.005.945.886.186.506.60

7.318.128.158.128.258.108.288.728.227 .947.767.32

3Comi.Paper

3.554.094.124.284.835.004.684.795.185.385.445.50

5.575.685.885.915.885.885.885.946.006.005.975.81

5.25•5.185.385.385.385.535.435.385.385.385.505.88

6.006.406.676.827.167.727 .848.007.078.007.937.88

4Unadj.Bonds

4.3764.4504.4954.6014.7314.7844.8314.8674.9645.0165.1625.252

5.2155.1625.2335.2975.2235.2835.3455.3475.4055.2744.9574.979

5.0775.1265.1895.2395.1865.1855.2535.4355.4775.3335 .4735.538

5.5175.7065.7055.9236.1726.1216.0855.8995.6025.5135.6035.784

5Ad] ust.Bonds

3.9233.9884.0264.1214.2364.2824.3224.3544.4404.4864.6154.695

4.6614.6124.6764.7324.6644.7184.7734.7734.8244.7054.4224.440

4.5274.5704.6254.6694.6204.6174.6764.8374.8744.7464.8694.927

4.9075.0735.0735.2655.4875.4435.4115.2475.0634.9054.9875.149

6StockPrices

81.3277.0477.9977.1474.0074.9674.0372.9669.8866.8561.8059.74

62.3763.1262.6361.3963 .3763.7463 .96

65.5165.8968 .6070.3267.51

65.8465.8666 .54

66.7770.4170.5570 .2665 .7764.5265.2663.1860.42

60.5958.1461.6459.4457 .2956.8057.5850.5063 .0065.8964.0058.11

Page 159: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A158 APPENDIX

TABLE 10 (Continued)

Adj ust.Bonds

6StockPrices

1921JFMAMJjAS0ND

6.717.266 .826.456 796.005.605.575.145.285.035.14

6 606 816.756.666.656.686.125.98.5.595 385.205.12

7.827.757.627. .566.936.716 28.5.955.885.625.175.12

5 584.5.6085.6725.7075.7225.8625.7075.6115 5255.5025.2665.110

4.9744.9975.0575.0915.1095 2385.1035.0214.9494.9334.7264.591

59.7759.0256,2555.1757 .43

53 9756 2557 2357 8656 9358.5458.62

1922JFMAMJJAS0ND

4.554.904.233,973.913.703.863 .764.344.734.894.66

4.754.874744.414.174.124.064.084,474.794.994.91

4444443

34444

.91

.88

.79

.56

.28.03.9488

.19

.39

.61

.62

5.0115.0134.0664.8704.8404.8334.74046904.6744.7934.8794.862

4.5064.5134,4754.3934.3724.3704.2914.2514.2424.3554.4394.429

586062656766687273736967

363.565

.80.11.44.09

.3030

.21

.2462

1923JFMAMJJAS0NB

445445544444

.32

.82

.1.4

.87

.70

.00

.06

.97

.93

.76

.81

.86

4.674.915.285.325.074.015.125.245 .47

5.285.035 00

445

554455.5

54

.62

.68

.03

.12

.12

.91

.95

.031212

.09

.88

4.8574.8905.0245.0504.9674.9834.9914.9605.0005.0194.9824.994

4.4314.4674.5954.6254.5554.5764.5904.5684.6104.6334.6054.623

67.5669.7270.0468.0366.4765.8563.2462.8963 .1762 6663 6263 58

1924JFMAMJJAS0ND

4.394.334.044.213.342.252.102.002.072.322.423.49

4.804.754.694.333.973.312.852.722.962 883 123 55

4.884.784.624.624.103.973 523.253.123.123.223.55

4,9494.9654.9684.9304.8784.8044.7424.7824.7754.7404.7534.787

4.5864.6064.6134.5844.5384.4754.4224.4634.4614.4404.4484.484

64 5265.0664.6065 4665.5867.4270.7172.5372.0371.2776.1580.10

Page 160: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES A159

TABLE 10 (Continued)

2Time

Money

3Co ml.Paper

4Unad.j.Bonds

3.323.603 .97

3.803.823.974.094.1.94.624.874.745.32

3.623,654.074.013.783 .853.934.354.414.824.914.99

3.629.3.3.013.933 883 883 903 .074.154.384.384 . :38

4.7764.7594.7414.7244.6674.6704.7164.7724.7284.744.725

4. 6S7

'5

Prices

80.7980.9378.6376.4678.4978.8079.0882.3283.1784.3486.7890.59

4.4784.4664.4524.4404.390.1 '1 -.

4.4444.5004.4324.4794.4654.432

4.334.854.554 063 .81

4.1.5

4,27I

5.024.754.505.16

44'.1

44444

444

.78

(54

.74

.22

06.133000.91

.99

.68

.67

444443.34

4

444

.35

.1528.19

.0388

.04

.22

.40

.53

.4340

4.0454.6094.61.44.4.5164.5174.5423.5554.5504.5434.5024.485

1925JFMAMJJAS0ND

1926•1

FMAM.1JA(J

0ND

1927JFIv'AM

jAS0ND

1928JFMAMJJAS0ND

4.3954.3644.3724.3184.2854 280

.3.154.3314.3294.3254.2894.278

93.6689.0985 .33

85.8480.7593 .20

92.0994.6707.4994.5495.2497.05

4.324.034.134.184.204.334.053.683 .803.903.604.38

4.4.4,4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4.

554242383640440817341510

434444433433

.19

.91

.00

.09

.12

.12

.06

.90

.91

.00

.93

.97

4.4544.4524.4114.3554.3474.3804.3844.3424.3054.2574.2064.183

4.2514.2534.2174.1634.1654.2004.2094.1744.1434.1014.0574.040

98.36102 .61103.69106.14108.47110.22112.10113.47115.39115.15114.23116.58

4.244.384,475.085.706.326.056.877.266.986.678.60

444455'567767

.35

.55

.61

.88

.17

.76

.93

.34

.06

.10ss

.47

3.883.994.194.314 .554 .725.095.42.5.59

5.515.385.44

4.1874.2084.2134.2314.2754.3714.4374.4964.4424.4354.3954.468

4.0494.0734.0824.1044.151

4 .360

114111115120122116114116119118124124

.79

.84

.66

.49

.41

.52

.85

.57

.60

.42

.37

.01

0

Page 161: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A160 APPENDIX

TABLE 10 (Continued)

Date

1929J

FMA1's/I

JJ

AS0ND

1930JFMAMJJAS0N

1931JFMAMJJAS0ND

1932JFMAMJJAS0ND

1

CallMoney

7.057.069.108.898,917.709.238.238.506.435.444.83

4.644.323.694.003.122 .62

2.202.212.192.002.002.23

1 .571 .501 .551.521 .451 .501 .501 .501.502.102.502.70

2.652 .502.502.502.502.2.082.002.001.351 .001 .00

2Time

Money

7.657 .697.978.728.778.107 .848.878.947 . SO

5.504.82

4.704.654.124.123.542 .902.782.622.592.452.182.24

2.101 .882.122.121 .661.411 .421 .501 .693.193.533.40

3.563.623.132.691.591 .501 .441 .381 .26

.9750

.50

3

Co nil.

Paper

5.505.565.695.886.006.006.006.086.126.125.415.00

4.904.624.103 .88

3 .68

3.443.153.003 .003.002.972 .85

2.822.502.532.402.122.121 .95

1 .881 .883.354.004

4.003.883.523.383.002.782.562.182.121 .941. .74

1.51

4Unadj.Bonds

4.5014.5484.5994.5794.5974.6494.6704.6624.6944.6384.5814.504

4.5044.5224.4374.4544.4414.4 174.3754.3174.2624.2924.3664.488

4.3224.3244.3194.3654.3314.3644.3624.4924.7325.1465.2485.886

5.6375.6365.5245.9066.3626.5136.0775.4585.2865.3195.4435.557

5

Adjust.Bonds

4.3934.4344.4644.4604.4774.5204.5464.5124.5754.5404.4454.398

4.3864.3754.3004.3524.3194.2874.2374.1764.1164.0964.1384.200

4.0784.0834.0954.0814.0024.0164.0094.0564.1204.3504.4924.736

4.7354.7934.6914.8374.8484.8984.7984.5404.4564.4564.4884.375

6StockPrices

130.53128.95128.54126.90128.40133.56146.61152.76154.42135.68122.20125.02

124.18130.53131.34128.76122.54115.09115.01111.95109.98101.7793.3185.38

90.6996.1289.8979.9270.5667.7869.2661.2551.4745.1841.0831.78

32.0131.8629.4421.2715.5713.4615.8725.6731.2326.1624.3723.26

0

Page 162: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES A161

Date

TABLE 10 (Concluded)

S(;ockPrices

1.001.003.321.371 .001.001 .00

• 98.75.75.75.94

.50

.662.941.251 .04

.931 . 161. .08

.64

.69.83

1.09

1.381.382.782.562.081 .691 .501 .501.251.251.251. .41

5.2905.3905.6815.9075.485.5.1624.9644.9215.1595.1855.5765.417

4.1744.1734.3374.5154.3574.2054.1284.0764.1004.1114.2404.200

25.1423.8123.7525.4634.6440.3645.9345.5642.9935.5035.4:037.34

1.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001 .001.001 .001.00

1.09.91.88.88.88.88.88.88.8888

.88

.88

1.251.221.001 .00

.90.75.75.75.75.75.75.75

4.9974.6954.5974.5154.4674.4024.3794.4944 .5924.491

4.0843 . 9963 . 9263.865

8123 . 7283.7213.7713 . 8263.7623 . 6803.611

1933JFMAMJJAS0ND

1934JFMAMJJAS0ND

1935JFMAMJJAS0ND

1936

MAMJJAS0ND

1937J

41,6846.0544.3744.8740.3140.3235.9332.8232.0832.9532.5333.47

1.001 .001.00

.64

.25

.25

.25

.25

.25

.29

.75

.75

.88

.88

.88

.56

.25

.25

.25

.25

.25

.341.001.00

.75.75.75.75.75.75.75.75.75.75.75.75

4.2094.1484.2254.2624.2064.1734.1294.1784.2144.2434.2324.612

3 5233.4383.4093 .4113.4383.4173.3973.4513 . 4673.4793 . 4433.414

32.3930.5526.7327.5429.0530.1031.7133.5234.1032.0035.6138.36

.75.75.75.75.93

1 .001.001.001 001.001 .001.00

1.001.001 .001 .001.191.251.251 .251 .251 .251.251 .25

.75.75.75.7575

.75

.75

.75

.75

.75

.7575

4.0473.9413.8823.9053.8953.8753.8813.8773.8433.8283.7963.747

3.3603.3123.2513.2453.2153.2003.2203.2403.2113.2003.1703.125

41.3846.5945.5543.5142.0844.2647.5250.1051.3754.0653.0650.31

1.00 1.25 .75 3.764 3.146 51.44

Page 163: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A162 APPENDIX

TABLE 11

Aw ADJUSTED ARITHMETIC AVERAGE INDEX NUMBER' OF THE YIELDS OFAMERICAN RAILROAD BONDS,

MONTHLY, JANUARY 1857-JANUARY 1936

Col. 1 Logarithms of Index.Col. 2. Cyclical Curve (logarithms).Col. 3. Trend Curve (logarithms).Col. 4. Deviations of Cyclical Curve (logarithms) from Trend Curve

(logarithms).For the nature of the graduations given in columns 2 and 3 see

Appendix D.

'See Table 10.

Page 164: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A163

TABLE 11

AN ADJUSTED ARITHMETIC INDEX NUMBER OF THE YIELDS OFAMERICAN RAILROAD BONUS.

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1857 1862J .8209 .8249 .8255 —.0006 J .7879 .7920 .7452 +.0468

.8180 .8268 .8261 +.0007 F .7710 .7854 .7426 +.0428M .8190 .8301 .8264 +.0037 M .7752 .7775 .7397 +.0378A .8208 .8346 .8266 +.0080 A .7723 .7682 .7369 +.0313M .8258 .8401 .8265 +.0136 M .7498 .7578 .7343 +.0235J .8356 .8460 .8264 +.0196 J .7385 .7464 .7318 +.01463 .8377 .8518 .8262 +.0256 3 .7423 .7344 .7292 +.0052A .8421 .8568 .8260 +.0308 A .7335 .7224 .7268 — .0044S .8850 .8604 .8258 +.0346 S .7197 .7109 .7245 —.01360 .9154 .8624 .8254 +.0370 0 .7029 .7001 .7223 —.0222N .8847 .8624 .8249 +.0375 N .6936 .6905 .7203 — .0298D .8673 .8602 .8244 +.0358 D .6973 .6824 .7184 —.0360

1858 1863

J .8558 .8558 .8237 +.0321 3 .6613 .6761 .7166 —.0405F .8338 .8494 .8230 +.0264 F .6474 .6719 .7152 — .0433M .8192 .8413 .8222 +.019.i M .6542 .6699 .7138 — .0439A .8173 .8321 .8216 +.0105 A .6740 .6700 .7126 — .0426M .8129 .8225 .8208 +.0017 M .6749 .6722 .7113 —.03913 .8107 .8131 .8200 —.0069 J .6799 .6759 .7105 —.0346J .8079 .8047 .8193 —.0146 3 .6844 .6806 .7099 — .0293A .8080 .7978 .8186 —.0208 A .6872 .6854 .7097 — .0243S .8032 .7926 .8178 —.0252 S .6869 .6895 .7093 —.0198o .7918 .7892 .8170 —.0278 0 .6838 .6923 .7093 —.0170N .7869 .7875 .8162 —.0287 N .6933 .6933 .7097 —.0164D .7858 .7870 .8155 —.0285 D .7017 .6923 .7100 —.0177

1859 1864J .7861 .7874 .8146 —.0272 J .7082 .6895 .7104 —.0209

.7854 .7884 .8137 —.0253 F .7055 .6855 .7112 —.0257M .7857 .7899 .8128 —.0229 M .6917 .6810 .7121 — .0311A .7843 .7916 .8119 —.0203 A .6752 .6766 .7132 —.0366M .7925 .7934 .8109 —.0175 M .6743 .6734 .7148 —.0414J .8040 .7953 .8099 —.0146 J .6667 .6720 .7161 —.0441J .8037 .7970 .8088 — .0118 J .6398 .6728 .7178 — .0450A .8009 .7982 .8076 — .0094 A .6414 .6761 .7197 — .0436S .7923 .7988 .8064 —.0076 S .6730 .6821 .7221 —.0400O .7952 .7984 .8053 —.0069 0 .7066 .6904 .7244 —.0340N .7976 .7969 .8040 —.0071 N .7029 .7009 .7269 —.0260D .7962 .7944 .8027 —.0083 D .7155 .7129 .7294 —.0165

1860 18653 .7957 .7912 .8010 —.0098 J .7325 .7259 .7320 —.0061F .7928 .7875 .7997 —.0122 F .7452 .7391 .7348 +.0043M .7893 .7838 .7981 —.0143 M .7679 .7520 .7378 +.0142A .7842 .7804 .7964 —.0160 A .7750 .7640 .7407 +,0233M .7762 .7776 .7945 —.0169 M .7734 .7745 .7438 +.0307J .7688 .7755 .7927 —.0172 J .7917 .7835 .7469 +.0366J .7655 .7744 .7908 —.0164 J .7843 .7909 .7501 +.0408A .7643 .7742 .7888 —.0146 A .7868 .7968 .7532 +.0436S .7655 .7749 .7868 —.0119 S .7900 .8013 .7567 +.04460 .7690 .7767 .7848 —.0081 0 .7957 .8047 .7599 +.0448N .7898 .7793 .7825 —.0032 N .8030 .8071 .7632 +.0439D .8089 .7828 .7802 +.0026 D .8067 .8087 .7666 +.0421

1861 1866J .7931 .7869 .7778 +.0091 J .8123 .8096 .7697 +•0399F .7891 .7914 .7754 +.0160 F .8152 .8097 .7729 +.0368M .7854 .7960 .7728 +.0232 M .8200 .8093 .7759 +.0334A .7896 .8001 .7703 +.0298 A .8168 .8084 .7788 +.0296M .8124 .8036 .7676 +.0360 M .8085 .8070 .7816 +.0254J .8095 .8061 .7649 +.0412 J .8062 .8053 .7843 +.0210J .7983 .8075 .7622 +.0453 J .8001 .8034 .7869 +.0165A .8000 .8076 .7595 +.0481 A .7965 .8015 .7894 +.0121S .8072 .8067 .7566 +.0501 S .7939 .7996 .7916 +.00800 .8117 .8046 .7539 +.0507 0 .7922 .7980 .7939 +.0041N .8090 .8015 .7511 +.0504 N .7896 .7969 .7959 +.0O10D .8089 .7973 .7482 +.0491 D .7965 .7963 .7980 —.0017

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A164 APPENDIX

TABLE 11 (Continued)

AN ADJUSTED ARITffMETXC INDEX NUMBER OF THE YIELDS OFAMERICAN RAILROAD BONDS.

2 3Date1867

JFMAMJJAS0ND

1868JFMAMJ3AS0ND

18693FMAM

AS0ND

1870JFMAM33AS0ND

1871JFMAMJJAS0ND

1

7985.7998.8005.80378048

.8045

.79657955

.7964

.8014.8055.8072

.8002

.795 1

.7935

.7955

.7923

.7907

.7902

.7912

.79557999

.8048

.808 7

.8088

.8095

.8125

.8 141

.8081

.8074

.8118

.8110

.8159

.8221

.8245

.82 72

.82 29

.8096

.8042

.8064.802 8.7996.7991.8040.8058.8070.8083.8 108

.8074.8050.8041.803 1.8002.7998.7994.79737959

.8040

.8070

.8034

2

.7963

.7969.79807993

.8006

.80 t 7

.8025

.8026

.8023

.80 14

.8002

.7987

.7973

.7959

.7949

.7944

.7942

.1945

.79527962

.7975

.79918009

.8029

.8052

.8075

.8098

.8121

.8141

.8157

.8169

.8 1758176

.8172

.8164

.8153

.8139

.8 124

.8108

.8092

.8078

.8064

.8053

.8045

.8039

.8038

.8038

.8041

80438046

• 8045.8042.80378029

.80 19

.8008

.7995

.7982

.7970

.7958

3

79948008

.8023

.80368048

.805 9

.8070

.8077

.8082

.8088

.8093

.8096

.8098

.8 100

.8102

.8 102

.8 101

.8 100

.8 100

.8098

.8095

.8093

.8091

.8088

.8084

.8082

.8080

.8078

.8075

.807 3

.807 2

.807 1

.8070

.8070

.8069

.8068

8068.8068.8067.8067.8066.8065.8064.8063.8063.8062.8060.8059

.805 8

.8056

.8054

.8051

.8049

.8047

.80448040

.8036

.8031

.802 7

.8023

4

— .0031— .0039— .0043— .0043— .0042— .0042— .0045—.0051— .0059— .0074— .0091

.0109

.0125— .0141— .0153— .0158— .0159— .0155— .0148— .0136— .0120— .0102— .0082— .0059

— .0032— .0007+0018+ .0043+ .0066+ .0084+ .0097+.0104+.0106+ .0102+0095+ .0085

+.0071+.0056+ .0041+.002S+.0012— .0001— .0011— .0018— .0024

.0024— .0022— .0018

— .0015— .0010— .0009— .0009-.0012— .0018-.0025— .0032— .0041— . 0049— .0057— .0065

Date1872

3FMAM3JAS0ND

1873JFMAMJJAS0ND

1874IFMAMJJAS0ND

1875JFMAMJJAS0ND

18763FMAMJJAS0ND

I

.7906.7881.7933.7923.792178927835

.78 75

.7916

.7941

.7967

.7970

7917.79007903

.7915

.7896

.78667826

.7826

.7900

.8 120

.8127

.7996

7839.7766.7757.7740.77717728

.7724

.77137688741

.7574

.7561

.7506

.7478

.746 17403

.7370• 73887344

.7332

.7299

.7324

.72927242

.7196

.7150

.7120

.7 141

.7163

.7142

.7090

.7066

.7 134

.7 139

.7 131

.7131

7947.7937.7929.7922.79 18.7914.7911.7908.7906.7903.79037903

.7906

.7910

.79 16

.7922

.7928

.7933

.7935

.7935

.7932

.7926

.7917

.7905

.7889.7868.7843.78 14.7781.7 746.7710.7674.7640.7608.75 78.7549

.75 20• 7491.7466.7436.7407.7379.7352.7323.7298.72 74.725 1.722 7

.7204

.7182

.7 1617144

.7 130

.7 120.7115.7114.7117.7122.7128.7135

4

—— .0075— .0077— .0076— .0074— .0070— .0066— . 0060— .0053— .0047— .0036— .0028

— .0012+ .0003+.0022+ .0040+.0059+.0076+.0092+.0106+.0119+.0128+.0133+.0138

+.0140+.0136+ .0 129+ .0117+.0101+.0085+.0068+.0050+.0032+.0019+ .0007— .0004

— .0014— .0026— .0033— .0045— .0055— .0067— .0076— .0088— .0096— .0103— .0110— .0118

— .0126— .0134— .0140— .0144— .0142— .0139— .0130— .0118— .0103— .0086— .0070—.005 1

.8018

.8012

.8006

.7998

.79927984

.7977

.7968

.7959

.7950

.7939

.793 1

.7918.7907.7894.7882.7869.7857.7843.7829.7813.7798.7784.7767

.7749

.7 732

.7714

.7697

.7680

.7661

.7642

.76247608

.7589

.7571

.7553

.7534

.75 17

.7499

.7481

.7462

.7446

.74287411

.7394

.7377

.73617345

.7330

.7316

.7301

.7288

.7272

.7259

.7245

.7232

.7220

.7208

.7198

.7 186

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RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A165

TABLE 11 (Continued)

AN ADJUSTED ARITBMETIC INDEX NUMBER OF THE YIELDS OFAMERICAN RAILROAD BONDS.

1 2 1 2 3 4Date1877

JFMAM

AS0ND

1878JFMAMJJAS0ND

1879

MAMjAS0ND

1880IFMAMI

IAS0ND

1881

JFMAMIJAS0ND

7105.7137.7199.7210.7177.7 126.7086.71121130

.7 154• 7145.7117

.7120

.7117

.7123

.7124• 7099.7049.70497080

.7078

.7058

.7027

.7012

.6921

.6802

.6874

.6875

.67 74

.6735

.6696

.6691

.6768

.6757

.6739.6 707

.6668.6613.6600.6609.6601.6566.6496.645 1.6421.6379.6277.6208

.6167

.6213

.625 7

.6242

.6127

.6059

.6062• 6097.6177.622 1.6199.6224

3

.71747165

.7 134

.7 143

.7 132

.7 122

.7111

.7101

.7090

.70797068

.7057

• 7044.7033.7020.7008.6992.6979.6965.6949.693 1.6914.6897.6879

.6861

.6842.6823.6804.6784.6 765.6743.6 722.6701.6680.6659.6638

.66 15

.6594

.6572

.6551

.6530

.6508

.6488

.6467

.6450

.6430

.6412

.6396

.6379

.6363

.6349

.6336

.632 1

.6308

.6296

.6287

.6277

.62686261

.6253

.7141

.7146

.7150

.7152

.7152

.7151

.7150

.7144

.7 139

.7133

.7.128

.7124

.7121

.7118

.7116

.7 113

.7 107

.7099

.7086

.7069

.7046

.7020

.6991

.6959

.6926

.6893

.6861

.6830

.6802.6777.6756.6738.6724.67 12.6702.6690

.6676

.6658

.6634

.6606

.6564

.65 26

.6484

.6440

.6394

.6357

.63 12

.6269

.6230

.6197.6 170.6152.6141.6 138.6141.6 148.6159.6172.6 184.6 197

4

— .0033— .0019— .0004+ .0009+.0020+.0029+,0039+.0043+ .0049+ .0054+.0060+.0067

+.0077+.0085+.0096+.010s+.0115+.0120+ .0121+.0120+.0115+.0106+.0094+ .0080

+.0065+ .0051+ .0038+.0026+ .0018+ .0012+ .0013+.0016+.0023+.0032+ .0043+.0052

+ .0061+ .0064+.0062+.0055+.0034+ .0018— .0004— .0027— .0056— .0073— .0100— .0127

— .0149— .0166— .0179— .0184— .0180— .0170— .0155— .0139—.0118— .0096— .0077— .0056

Date

1882

3FMAM

IAS0ND

18833FMAMJJAS0ND

1884JFMAM3JAS0ND

1885JFMAMJJAS0ND

18863FIvIAM3JAS0ND

.6219

.6247

.62 70

.6224.6201.6206.6190.6222.6241.6232.6254.6252

.6217

.6230

.6267.6249.6246.6244.6243.6277.6283.6274.6243.6224

.6194.6149.6114.6088.6170.6273.6286.6219.622 7

.6 222

.6228

.6 190

.6 142

.6106

.6066

.6056

.6039

.5985

.5954

.5945

.593 1

.5888

.5858

.3 835

.5761

.5685

.5670

.5682.5678.5643.5609.562 1.5 685.5686.5684.5 712

.6208

.6217

.6224

.6230

.6232

.6233

.6232

.6230

.6229

.6229

.6232

.6236

.6243

.625 1

.6258

.6262

.6263

.6261

.6254

.6 24S

.6234

.6223

.6213

.6204

.6 199

.6 196

.6196

.6 197

.6200

.6204

.6207

.6209

.6208

.6203

.6194

.6180

.6170

.6136

.6108

.607 7

.6043

.6008

.5973

.5939

.S903

.5867

.583 1

.5796

.5 762

.5 732

.5707

.5 685

.5669

.565 7

.5650

.5647

.5650

.5653

.5660

.567 1

6248.6242.6238.6 233.6230.622 7.6223.6220.62 18.6216.6213.6211

.6208

.6204

.6 202

.6 199

.6 196

.6192

.6187

.6 182

.6178

.6173

.6168

.6163

.6 155

.6 149

.6141

.6133

.6125

.6.116

.6 107

.6098

.6089

.6080

.6069

.6058

.6046

.6034

.6022

.6011

.5997

.5 984

.5971

.5 958

.5944

.5931

.5917

.5902

.5889

.5873

.5 862

.5 848

.5 835

.5822

.5808

.5 795

.3 782

.5770

.5 758

.5 746

— . 0040— .0025— .0014— . 0003+ .0002+ .0006+0009+.0o10+ .0011+0013+ .0019+0025

+ . 0035+.0047+0056+ .0063+.0067+ .0069+ . 0061+.0063+0056+.0050+ . 0045+ .0041

+ . 0044+.0047+.0055+ .0064+.0073+ .0088+.0100+ .0111+0119+.0123+ .0125+.0122

+.0124+0102+,0086+ . 0066+,0046+ .0024+ .0002— .0019— .0041— .0064— .0086— .0106

— .0127— .0143— .0155— .0163— .0166— .0165— .0158— .0148— .0132— .0117— .0098— .0075

Page 167: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A166 APPENDIX

TABLE 11 (Continued)

AN ADJUSTED ARITHMETIC INDEX NtJMBER OF ThE YIELDS OFAMERICAN RAILROAD BONDS.

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1887 1892

J .5685 .5684 .5732 — .0048 J .3739 .5774 .5762 +.0012F .5694 .5698 .5721 — .0023 F .5113 .5751 .5765 — .0014M .5711 .5713 .5709 +.0004 M .5722 .5729 .5768 — .0039A .5716 .5728 .5699 +.0029 A .5705 .5708 .5770 — .0062M .5699 .5743 .5688 +.0055 M .5683 .5690 .5770 — .0080J .5703 .5756 .5679 +.0077 J .5669 .5676 .5770 — .0094J .5723 .5766 .5669 +.0097 J .5657 .5665 .5770 — .O1OSA .5758 .5774 .5661 +.0113 A .5667 .5660 .3769 — .0109S .5838 .5779 .5652 +.0127 S .5711 .5661 .5768 — .01070 .5865 .5780 .5646 +.0134 0 .5710 .5669 .5766 — .0097N .5822 .5778 .5639 +.0139 N .5719 .5683 .5762 — .0079D .5801 .5772 .5632 +.0140 D .5736 .5705 .5759 — .0054

1888 1893

J .5731 .5763 .S625 +.0138 J .5712 .5731 .5756 — .0025F .5701 .5751 .5621 +.0130 F .5679 .5760 .5751 +.0009M .5719 .5736 .5616 +.0120 M .5114 .5790 .5748 +.0042A .5718 .5720 .S612 +.0108 A .5718 .5818 .5742 +.0076M .5696 .5703 .5609 +.0094 M .5769 .5841 .5735 +.0106J .5670 .5684 .5607 +.0077 J .5839 .5858 .5729 +.0129J .5616 .5666 .5605 +.0061 J .5979 .5868 .5722 +.0146A .5608 .5647 .5604 +.0043 A .6081 .5869 .5714 +.0155S .3640 .5628 .5603 +.0025 S .5944 .5862 .5706 +.0156o .5648 .5608 .3603 +.0005 0 .5886 .5846 .5698 +.0148N .5629 .5588 .5603 — .0015 N .5788 .5821 .5690 +.0131D .5614 .5567 .5604 — .0037 D .5722 .5789 .5681 +.0108

1889 1894

j .5562 .5547 .5604 — .0057 J .5714 .5750 .5671 -1-.0079F .5509 .5528 .5606 — .0078 F .5660 .5708 .5662 +.0046M .5520 .5510 .5608 — .0098 M .5620 .5664 .5654 +.0010A .5511 .5494 .5609 — .0115 A .5570 .5623 .5645 —.0022M .5460 .5482 .5610 — .0128 M .5572 .5588 .5632 —.0044J .5411 .5474 .5613 — .0139 J .5576 .5559 .5624 —.0065J .5436 .5470 .5616 — .0146 J .5591 .5539 .5613 —.0074A .5448 .5470 .5618 — .0148 A .5566 .5525 .5603 —.0078S .5455 .5474 .5621 — .0147 S .5534 .5517 .5591 —.0074O .5504 .5482 .5623 — .0141 0 .5511 .5582 —.0071N .5543 .5494 .5627 — .0133 N .5461 .5505 .5573 —.0068D .5560 .5509 .5630 — .0121 D .5458 .5497 .5563 —.0066

1890 1895J .5544 .5526 .5635 — .0109 J .5465 .5486 .5551 —.0065F .5549 .5545 .5639 — .0094 F .5504 .5472 .5542 —.0070M .5572 .5565 .5644 — .0079 M .5517 .5455 .5533 —.0078A .5576 .5585 .5648 — .0063 A .5522 .5438 .5523 —.0085M .5579 .5604 .3653 — .0049 M .5464 .5419 .5512 —.0093J .5601 .5624 .5658 — .0034 J .5393 .5402 .5503 —.0101J .5617 .5643 .5663 — .0020 3 .5359 .5385 .5493 —.0108A .5660 .5663 .5669 — .0006 A .5305 .5371 .5482 —.0111S .5688 .5685 .5674 +.0011 S .5310 .5360 .5471 —.0111o .5720 .5708 .5679 +.0029 0 .5320 .5355 .5460 —.0105N .5779 .5733 .5685 +.0048 N .5338 .5356 .5450 —.0094D .5834 .5760 .5691 +.0069 D .5400 .5363 .5440 —.0077

1891 1896J .5737 .5788 .5698 +.0090 3 .5459 .5378 .5429 —.0051F .5740 .5812 .3703 +.0109 F .5410 .5399 .5417 —.0018M .5798 .5835 .5710 +.0125 M .5414 .5423 .5406 +.0017A .5816 .5853 .5717 +.0136 A .5409 .5448 .5395 +.0053M .5853 .5866 .5723 +.0143 M .5386 .5469 .5383 +.0086J .5912 .5872 .5729 +.0143 J .5372 .5485 .5372 +.0113J .5910 •.5873 .5736 +.0137 J .5467 .5494 .5361 +.0133A .3912 .5867 .5741 +.0126 A .5667 .5494 .5349 +.0145S .5892 .5856 .5746 +.0110 S .5590 .5485 .5336 +.01490 .5852 .5839 .5752 +.0087 0 .5547 .5468 .3325 +.0143N .5824 .5819 .5756 +.0063 N .5439 .5444 .5313 +.0131D .5785 .5797 .5760 +.0037 D .5386 .5414 .5301 +.0113

a

Page 168: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A167

TABLE 11 (Continued)

AN ADJUSTED ARITHMETIC INDEx NUMBER OF THE YIELDS OFAMERICAN RAILROAD BONDs.

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1897 1902J .3331 .5380 .5290 +.0090 J .5049 .5058 .5132 —.0074F .5301 .5347 .5279 +.0068 F .5047 .5063 .5143 —.0080M .5240 .5308 .5268 +.0040 M .5053 .5068 .5155 —.0087A .5251 .5269 .5257 +.0012 A .5052 .5076 .5167 —.0091M .5235 .5233 .5245 —.0012 M .5074 .5087 .5178 —.0091J .5196 .5203 .5235 —.0032 J .5097 .5 100 .5189 —.0089J .5157 .5174 .5225 —.0051 J .5122 .5118 .5200 —.0082A .5180 .5160 .5215 —.0055 A .5147 .5138 .5212 —.0074S .5190 .5153 .5204 —.0051 S .5172 .5164 .5224 —.00600 .5192 .5153 .5195 —.0042 0 .5218 .5192 .5235 —.0043N .517.1 .5159 .5185 —.0026 N .5236 .5223 .5246 —.0023D .5115 .5167 .5175 —.0008 D .5269 .5256 .5257 —.0001

1898 1903J .5090 .5175 .5165 +.0010 J .5266 .5290 .5267 +.0023F .5096 .5182 .5156 +.0026 F .5289 .5323 .5277 +.0046M .5195 .5186 .3147 -I-.0039 M .5349 .5356 .5287 +.0069A .5297 .5186 .5137 +.0049 A .5393 .5386 .5296 +.0090M .5252 .5181 .5128 +.0052 M .5379 .5415 .3305 +.0110J .5188 .5172 .5118 +.0054 J .5423 .5441 .5314 +.0127J .5135 .5157 .5.109 +.0048 J .5480 .5463 .3322 +.0141A .5103 .5135 .5100 +.0035 A .5536 .5482 .5330 +.0152S .5124 .5109 .5091 +.0018 S .5546 .5498 .5339 +.0159O .5091 .3078 .3082 —.0004 0 .5507 .5509 .5347 +.0162N .5048 .5044 .5073 —.0028 N .5478 .5515 .5354 +.0161D .5008 .5010 .5065 —.0055 D .5492 .5517 .5360 +.0157

1899 1904J .4951 .4980 .5055 —.0075 J .5486 .5515 .5368 +.01.47F .4958 .4954 .5048 —.0094 F .5502 .5509 .5375 +.0134M .4961 .4935 .5040 —.0105 M .55fl .5500 .5382 ,+.0118A .4918 .4923 .5031 —.0108 A .5501 .5488 .5389 +.0099M .4883 .4919 .3023 —.0104 M .5489 .5476 .5397 +.00793 .4873 .4922 .5017 —.0095 J .5468 .5463 .5403 +.00603 .4898 .4930 .5010 —.0080 J .5430 .5450 +.0039A .4924 .4943 .5003 —.0060 A .5421 .5438 .5418 +.0020S .4967 .4957 .4998 —.0041 S .5428 .5427 .5426 +.000iO .5011 .4973 .4994 —.0021 0 .5424 .5417 .5433 —.0016N .5038 .4990 .4990 .0000 N .5416 .5408 .5440 —.0032D .5086 .5006 .4987 +.0019 D .5407 .5400 .5448 —.0048

1900 1905J .5048 .5020 .4983 +.0037 J .5377 .5393 .5456 —.0063F .5013 .5032 .4983 +.0049 F .5367 .5387 .5462 —.0075M .5002 .5040 .4982 +.0058 M .5382 .5383 .5470 —.0087A .4983 .5044 .4981 +.0063 A .5392 .5381 .5477 —.0096M .5021 .5044 .4981 +.0063 M .5400 .5380 .5485 —.01053, .5040 .5041 .4982 +.0059 3 .5396 .5382 .5492 —.0110J .5041 .5035 .4984 +.0051 3 .5384 .5385 .5500 —.0115A .5044 .5027 .4986 +.0041 A .5388 .5390 .5508 —.0118S .5050 .5020 .4992 +.0028 S .5389 .5398 .5513 —.0115o .5054 .5013 .4996 +.0017 0 .5391 .5407 .5520 —.0113N .5028 .5008 .5002 +.0006 N .5419 .5417 .5527 —.0110D .4997 .5006 .5008 —.0002 D .5430 .5429 .5532 —.0103

1901 1906J .4986 .5005 .5015 —.0010 3 .5418 .5442 .5538 —.0096F .4969 .5006 .5023 —.0017 F .5439 .5455 .3543 —.0088M .4971 .5009 .5031 '—.0022 M .5476 .5469 .5550 —.0081A .4985 .5013 .5039 —.0026 A .5496 .5481 .5556 —.0075M .5022 .5018 .5048 —.0030 M .5513 .5493 .5561 —.00683 .5013 .5023 .5059 —.0036 J .5498 .5503 .5567 —.0064J .5038 .5028 .5068 —.0040 3 .5512 .5513 .5572 —.0059A .5062 .5034 .5078 —.0044 A .5534 .5521 .5578 —.0057S .5075 .5040 .5088 —.0048 S .5563 .5529 .5583 —.00540 .5077 .5045 .5098 —.0053 0 .5549 .5538 .5590 —.0052N' .5051 .5049 .5109 —.0060 N .5540 .5549 .5596 —.0047D .5058 .5054 .5120 —.0066 D .5556 .5564 .5601 —.0037

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A168 APPENDIX

TABLE 11. (Continued)

AN ADJUSTED ARITHMETIC INDEX NUMBER OF THE YIELDS OF'AMERICAN RAILROAD BONDS.

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1907 1912

J .5566 .5584 .5606 —.0022 J .5850 .5862 .5890 —.0028F .5588 .5609 .5613 —.0004 F .5840 .5864 .5900 —.0036M .5662 .5640 .5619 +0021 M .5857 .5866 .5909 —.0043A .5660 .5675 .5625 +0050 A .5866 .5869 .5919 —.0050M .5682 .5714 .5630 M .5871 .5872 .5929 —.0057J .5735 .5753 .5637 +.0116 j .5884 .5877 .5939 —.00623 .5731 .5790 .5642 +.0148 J .5894 .5883 .5949 —.0066A .5788 .5825 .5649 +.0176 A .5916 .5893 .5958 —.0065S .5843 .5854 .5656 +.0198 S .5936 .5905 .5968 —.00630 .5921 .5876 .5661 +.0215 0 .5932 .5920 .5977 —.0057N .6087 .5890 .5668 +.0222 N .5930 .5939 .5986 —.0047D .5976 .5896 .5672 +.0224 D .5945 .5960 .5995 —.0035

1908 1913

J .3821 .5893 .5680 +.0213 J .5928 .5983 .6003 —.0020F .5809 .5881 .5686 +.0195 F .5944 .6010 —.0003M .5844 .5861 .5692 +.0169 M .6012 .6032 .6018 +.0014A .5814 .5835 .5697 +.0138 A .6061 .6056 .6024 +.0032M .5774 .5803 .5702 +.010I M .6110 .6078 .6030 +.00483 .5771 .5769 .5707 +.0062 J .6156 .6096 .6036 +.0060J .5748 .5735 .5711 +.0024 J .6153 .6109 .6040 +.0069A .5706 .5702 .5716 —.0014 A .6110 .6117 .6045 +.0072S .5674 .5673 .5719 —.0046 S .6069 .6118 .6049 +.00690 .5666 .5648 .5722 —.0074 0 .6104 .6114 .6053 +.0061N .5631 .5628 .5726 —.0098 N .6157 .6105 .6058 +.0047D .5615 .5612 .5729 —.0117 D .6168 .6094 .6062 +.0032

1909 1914J .5593 .5602 .5731 —.0129 J .6087 .6082 .6063 +.0019F .5569 .5596 .5135 —.0139 F .6018 .6072 .6067 +.0005M .5587 .5593 .5738 —.0145 lvi .6038 .6065 .6070 —.0003A .5596 .5594 .5740 —.0146 A .6036 .6063 .6072 —.0009M .5597 .5598 .5740 —.0142 lvi .6034 .6065 .6075 —.00103 .5620 .5606 .5742 —.0136 J .6021 .6072 .6078 —.0006J .5620. .5618 .5746 —.0128 J .6065 .6084 .6081 +.0003A .5637 .5633 .5741 —.0114 A .6104* .6100 .6083 +.0017S .5664 .5651 .5748 —.0097 S .6143* .6119 .6087 +.00320 .5684 .5672 .5749 —.0077 0 .6182* .6141 .6090 +.0051N .5704 .5694 .5751 —.0057 N .6220* .6165 .6094 +.0071D .5714 .5717 .5753 —.0036 D .6258 .6188 .6099 +.0089

1910 19153 .5719 .5739 .5756 —.0017 J .6197 .6211 .6103 +.0108F .5728 .5760 .5758 +.0002 F .6189 .6229 .6108 +.0121M .5753 .5779 .5760 +.0019 lvi .6219 .6242 .6113 +.0129A .5802 .5795 .5762 +.0033 A .6175 .6248 .6117 +.0131M .5825 .5809 .5766 +.0043 M .6183 .6247 .6121 +.0126J .3846 .5820 .5770 +.0050 J .6214 .6239 .6127 +.01123 .5873 .5829 .5775 +.0054 J .6277 .6227 .6132 +.0095A .5869 .5834 .5777 +.0057 A .6308 .6211 .6136 +.0015S .5821 .5838 .5780 +.0058 S .6319 .6193 .6140 +.0053o .5799 .5839 .5785 +.0054 0 .6224 .6116 .6146 +.0030N .5832 .5840 .5789 +.0051 N .6059 .6159 .6150 +.0009D .5831 .5840 .5793 +.0047 D .6072 .6143 .6156 —.0013

1911 19163 .5824 .5838 .5799 +.0039 J .6055 .6127 .6162 —.0035F .5829 .5838 .5803 +.0033 F .6041 .6116 .6168 —.0052M .5846 .5838 .5811 +.0027 lvi .6055 .6095 .6176 —.0081A .3843 .5839 .5818 +.0021 A .6071 .6079 .6182 —.0103M .5831 .5841 .5823 +.0018 lvi .6080 .6063 .6189 —.01263 .5842 .5844 .5830 +.0014 J .6085 .6048 .6198 —.0150J .5848 .5846 .5838 +.0008 J .6096 .6036 .6207 —.0171A .5863 .5849 .5846 +.0003 A .6113 .6026 .6216 —.0190S .5880 .5852 .5854 —.0002 S .6100 .6019 .6225 —.0206o .5873 .5854 .5862 —.0008 0 .6042 .6012 .6236 —.0212N .5851 .5857 .5871 —.0014 N .6003 .6021 .6248 —.0227D .5858 .5859 .5880 —.0021 D .6004 .6031 .6259 —.0228

*1 nterpolated. Stock Exchange closed.

Page 170: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD BOND YIELDS A169

TABLE 11 (Continued)

AN ADJUSTED ARITHMETIC INDEX NUMBER OF THE YIELDS OFAMERICAN RAILROAD I3ONDS.

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1917 1922

J .5936 .6049 .6272 —.0223 J .6538 .6633 .6773 —.0140F .6008 .6075 .6287 —.0212 F .6545 .6556 .6762 —.0206M .6049 .6111 .6302 —.0191 M .6508 .6487 .6750 —.0263A .6150 .6156 .6319 —.0163 A .6428 .6429 .6738 —.0309M .6270 .6209 .6333 —.0124 M .6407 .6386 .6725 —.0339J .6316 .6270 .6351 —.0081 J .6405 .6358 .6712 —.0354J .6357 •.6336 .6370 —.0034 J .6326 .6346 .6700 —.0354A .6389 .6405 .6389 +.0016 A .6285 .6348 .6688 —.0340S .6474 .6473 .6409 +.0064 S .6276 .6361 .6677 —.03160 .6519 .6538 .6430 +.0108 0 .6390 .6384 .6664 —.0280N .6642 .6598 .6451 +.0147 N .6473 .6413 .6653 —.0240D .6716 .6650 .6472 +.0178 D .6463 .6446 .6642 —.0196

1918 1923J .6685 .6692 .6495 +.0197 3 .6465 .6480 .6631 —.0151F .6639 .6723 .6518 +.0205 F .6500 .6515 .6620 —.0105M .6699 .6743 .6541 +.0202 M .6623 .6548 .6609 —.0061A .6750 .6752 .6564 +.0188 A .6651 .6578 .6599 —.0021M .6688 .6750 .6587 +.0163 M .6585 .6604 .6589 +.001SJ .6738 .6740 .6609 +.013t J .6605 .6626 .6579 +.0047J .6788 .6723 .6632 +.0091 3 .6618 6642 .6570 +.0072A .6788 .6703 .6654 +.0049 A .6597 .6652 .6562 +0090S .6834 .6681 .6678 +.0003 S .6637 .6656 .6553 +.0103o .6726 .6660 .6699 —.0039 0 .6659 .6654 .6545 +,0109N .6456 .6641 .6720 —.0079 N .6632 .6647 .6537 +.0110D .6474 .6626 .6742 —.0116 D .6649 .6637 .6530 +.0107

1919 1924J .6558 .6614 .6762 —.0148 3 .6614 .6623 .6523 +.0100F .6599 .6608 .6782 —.0174 F .6633 .6609 .6517 +.0092M .6651 .6608 .6799 —.0191 M .6640 .6593 .6511 +.0082A .6692 .6615 .6817 —.0202 A .6612 .6577 .6505 +.0072M .6646 .6631 .6833 —.0202 M .6569 .6560 .6500 +.0060J .6644 .6658 .6848 —.0190 3 .6508 .6544 .6495 +.0049J .6699 .6695 .6862 —.0167 J .6456 .6529 .6490 +.0039A .6846 .6742 .6874 —.0132 A .6496 .6514 .6485 +.0029S .6879 .6798 .6887 —.0089 S .6494 .6501 .6480 +.0021o .6763 .6859 .6896 —.0037 0 .6474 .6490 .6476 +.0014N .6874 .6923 .6905 +.00i8 N .6482 .6482 .6471 +.00tl.D .6926 .6986 .6915 +.0071. D .6517 .6477 .6466 +.0011

1920 1925J .6908 .7042 .6922 +.0120 J .6511 .6476 .6461 +.0015F .7053 .7091 .6927 +.0164 F .6499 . .6478 .6456 +.0022M .7053 .7128 .6930 +.0198 lvi .6486 .6482 .6451 +.0031A .7214 .7154 .6933 +.0221 A .6474 .9487 .6445 +.0042M .7393 .7169 .6935 +.0234 M .6425 .6491 .6439 +.00523 .7358 .7174 .6934 +.0240 J .6431 .6493 .6435 +.00583 .7333 .7169 .6933 +.0236 3 .6478 .6492 .6429 +.0063A .7199 .7158 .6931 +.0227 A .6532 .6488 .6422 +.0066S .7044 .7143 .6928 +.0215 S .6495 .6481 .6416 +.0065O .6906 .7125 .6923 +.0202 0 .6512 .6471 .6410 +.0061N .6978 .7107 .6918 +.0189 N .6498 .6460 .6403 -f-.0057D .7117 .7091 .6912 +.0179 D .6466 .6447 .6396 +.0051

1921 1926J .6967 .7078 .6903 +.0175 3 .6430 .6433 .6390 +,0043F .6987 .7068 .6896 +.0172 F .6399 .6419 .6383 +.0036M .7039 .7061 .6888 +.0173 M .6407 .6405 .6376 +.0029A .7068 .7053 .6878 +.0175 A .6353 .6390 .6370 +.0020M .7083 .7043 .6866 +.0177 M .6320 .6376 .6364 +.0012J .7192 .7029 .6856 +.0173 3 .6323 .6362 .6357 +.0005J .7078 .7005 .6845 +.0160 3 .6350 .6350 .6351 —.0001A .7008 .6970 .6833 +.0137 A .6366 .6339 .6346 —.0007S .6945 .6922 .6822 +.0100 S .6364 .6330 .6342 —.00120 .6931 .6862 .6810 +.0052 0 .6360 .6322 .6338 —.0016N .6745 .6791 .6798 —.0007 N .6324 .6316 .6334 —.0018D .6619 .6713 .6786 —.0073 D .6312 .6308 .6330 —.0022

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A170 APPENDIX

TABLE 11 (Concluded)

AN ADJUSTED ARITHMETIC INDEX NUMBER OF THE YIELDS OFAMERICAN RAILROAD BONDS.

Date 1 2 3 4

1927JFMAMJJAS0ND

.6285

.6287

.6250

.6199

.6196

.6233

.6242

.6205

.6173

.6129

.6082• 6064

.6299

.6287

.6271

.6251

.6228

.62 02

.617 7

.6153

.6 133.6118.6110.6109

3 4

.6326

.6323

.6320

.6317

.6314.6311.6309.6307.6306.6304.6302.630 1

—.0027—.0036— .0049— .0066— .0086— .0109—.0132— .0154—.0173—.0186— .0192—.0192

1928

MAMJJAS0ND

.6073

.6099

.6109

.6132

.6181

.6283

.6352

.6412.6364.6360.6322.6395

.6115.6128.6146.6170.6199.6230.6264.6300.6335.6369.6402.643 1

2

.6668

.6733

.6778

.68016800

.6777

.6736

.6681

.6618

.6552

.6488

.6429

.6378

.633 7

.6307

.6285

.6269

.6256

.6242

.62 23

.6200

.6170

.6136

.6098

.6038

.6017

.59 75

.5932

.6300.6299.6298.6297.6296.6295.6294.6294.6295.6296.6297.6299

— .0185—.0171—.0152—.0127— .0097— .0065—.0030+.0006+.0040±.0073+ .0 105+.0132

Date1932

JFMAMJ3AS0Np

1933JFMAM33AS0ND

1934JFA

JJAS0ND

1935

lviAMJJAS0ND1936

J

1929JFMAMJJAS0NP

.6301

.6304

.6307

.63 10

.6314

I

.6753.6806.67 13.6846.6856.6900.68 11.6571.6489.6489.6521.6410

.6206

.6204

.6372

.65 47

.6392

.6238

.6157

.6 102

.6128

.6139

.6274

.6233

.6111

.6016

.5940

.5872

.5812

.57 15

.5 707

.5 765

.5828.5 754.5658.5576

.5469

.5363

.5326

.5329

.5363

.5336

.53 11

.5379

.5399

.54 14

.5369

.5333

.5263

.6428

.6468

.6497

.64936510

.6551

.6576

.6544

.6604

.657 1

.6479

.6433

+.0136+.0176+.0192+.0205+ .0214

.6457

.6480

.6499

.6515

.6528

.6537

.6542

.6542

.6536

.6524

.6506

.6482

.642 1

.64 10

.6335

.6387

.6354

.6322.6271.6203.6145.6124.6168.6232

.6453

.642 1

.6387

.6355.6324.6294.62 65.6236.6205.6172.6138.6 105

1930JFMAM3JAS0ND

19313FMAM33AS0NP

.6105

.6110

.6 122

.6108

.6023

.6038

.6030

.6081

.6149

.6385

.6524

.6754

.6075

.6053

.6041

.6043

.6063

.6100

.6155

.62256309

.6401

.6495

.6587

Page 172: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 173: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A 1.72 APPENDIX

TABLE 12

NEW ENGLAND MUNICIPAL BOND YIELDS,JANUARY INDEX NUMBERS

1. An unadjusted chain index number based on simple geometricaverages of the yields each January.

2. An unadjusted chain index number based on simple arithmeticaverages of the yields each January.

in both the index numbers (geometric and arithmetic), the chainingis backward from January 1914. The index numbers for January 1914are therefore the averages (geometric or arithmetic) of the yields of thebonds used in January 1914.

. Date(1)

Geometric Index(2)

Arithmetic Index

January

4'

4'

4'

"4'

4'

4'

4'

4'

'4

4'

4'

4'

'44'

4'

'4

4'

4'

''4'

'4

'C

'C

'C

'4

4'

'C

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55.2714.8544.8054.9235.2404.4104.6765.1645.7573 2655.3735.3185.5155.4395.3535.4965.6525.3364.7764.5304.3694.2874.1993.8383.6973.6193.6493.5933.4193.4093.7333.5893.3353.6403.6553.6113.6673.470

51985.2704.8434.7944.9095.2264.4034.6665 .153.5.7485.2555.3675.3105.5105.4325.3455.484.5.6425.3274.7674.5254.3644.2854.1993.8433.7003.6213.6513.5953.4223.4073.7353.5893.3363.6463.6573,6133.6653.470

Page 174: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

MUNICIPAL BOND YIELDS A173

TABLE 12 (Concluded)

(1) (2)Date Geometric Index Arithmetic Index

% %January 1896 3.705 3.705

1897 3 437 3 4351898 3 308 3 3071899 3 123 3 1211900 3201 31981901 3 081 3 0811902 3 173 3 1701903 3253 32501904 3471 3469190.5 3400 3 3981906 3 506 3 505

" 1907 3 759 3 7601908 4 224 4 2311909 3.878 3.8791910 3.893 3.893

" 1911 4 008 4 007" 1912 4 003 4 002

1913 4239 4.242" 1914 4.367 4.372

Page 175: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A174 APPENDIX

TABLE 13NEW ENGLAND MUNICIPAL BOND YIELDS, ARITHMETIC AVERAGE

QUARTERLY INDEX NUMBER, JANUARY 1857-JANUARY 1914An unadjusted chain index number based on simple arithmetic

averages of the yields each quarter. The January 1914 figure is thearithmetic average of the bonds used in that month.

Date Index Date Index Date Index

1857 % 1866 % 1875 %J 5.198 J 5.748 J 5.327A 5.118 A 5.603 A 5.128J 5.102 J 5.502 J 4.966o 5.382 0 5.230 0 4.868

1858 1867 1876

J 5.270 .J 5.255 J 4.767A 5.006 A 5.349 A 4.637J 4.957 J 5.411 J 4.497o 4.921 0 5.362 0 4.476

1859 1868 1877J 4.843 5.367 J 4.525A 4.818 A 5.275 A 4.466J 4.833 J 5.245 J 4.384o 4.798 0 5.258 0 4.407

1860 1860 1878J 4.794 .J 5.310 J 4.364A 4.800 A 5.366 A 4.381J 4.767 J 5.394 J 4.330o 4.806 0 , 5.462 0 4.301

1861 1.870 1879J 4.909 J 5.510 J 4.285A 4.878 A 5.452 A 4.256J 5.102 J 5.400 J 4.191o 5.270 0 5.409 0 4.146

1862 1871 1880J 5.226 J 5.432 J 4.199A 5.064 .A 5.337 A 3.959J 4.864 J 5.291 J 3.994o 4.508 0 5.243 0 3.937

1863 1872 1881

J 4.403 .J 5.345 J 3.843A 4.201 A 5.314 A 3.713J 4.426 J 5.360 J 3.653o 4.457 0 5.458 0 3.654

1864 1873 1882J 4.666 J 5.484 J 3.700A 4.678 A 5.541 A 3.639J 4.903 J 5.512 J 3.5790 5.060 0 5.675 0 3.611

1865 1874 1883J 5.153 J 5.642 J 3.621A 5.617 A 5.470 A 3.632J 5.664 J 5.420 J 3.6210 5.736 0 5.412 0 3.665

Page 176: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

MUNICIPAL BOND YIELDS A175

TABLE 13— (Continued)

1884JAJ0

%3.6513.5913.6333.627

1893JAJ0

%3.6133.6313.8293.887

1885JAJ0

1902JAJ0

3333

595• 540• 505• 465

%3.1703.1893.2623.251

1894JAJ0

3.6653.7533.7003.651

1886JAJ0

1903JAJ0

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.422366363393

3.2503.3053.4833.462

18953AJ0

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• 470• 451• 469465

1887JAJ0

1904JAJ0

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3.4693.4743.4593.409

1896JAJ0

3333

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• 735687654.615

3.3983.3863.4583.503

1897JAJ0

1339

3

.435407380349

1889JAJ0

906JAJ0

3.5893.4823.4103.349

3.5053.5523.6613 754

1898JAJ0

I3333

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.279

.191

1890JAJ0

907JAJ0

3.3363.3783,4273.540

3334

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.121

.106068

.144

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4333

.231

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.198.165.139.105

1892JAJ0

1909JAJ0

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657.611583580

333a

.879

.807845

.893

1901JAJ0

3333

081109136168

1910JAJ0

3.8933.9914.0854.048

Page 177: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A176 APPENDIX

TABLE 13—(Concluded)

Date Index Date Index Date Index

1911 % 1912 % 1913 %J 4.007 J 4.002 J 4.242A 4.007 A 4.019 A 4.391J 4.000 J 4.093 J 4.5720 4.011 0 4.162 0 4.403

1914J 4.372

Page 178: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 179: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical
Page 180: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 181: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 182: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A181

TABLE 14

RAILROAD COMMON STOCK PRICE RELATIVES,JANUARY 1857-JANuARY 1936

The numbers at the heads of columns are the numbers assigned tothe various railroads in Chart 32. For example, the figures of Column 1refer to the Baltimore and Ohio Railroad. The figures in the singlecolumn entitled '51 to 52' refer first to the Chicago, Milwaukee and St.Paul Railway (January 1874 to January 1928) and then (lower down)they refer to the Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Paul and Pacific Railroad(January 1928 to January 1936).

Each relative price in Table 14 is the ratio of the average price of aspecified stock in a particular January to the average price of the samestock in the preceding January, after all adjustments have been made forstock dividends, rights, assessments, etc. For example, the first numberin the table is . 5855. This means that the average price of Baltimoreand Ohio Railroad common stock in January 1858 was a little less thanthree-fifths (.5855) its average price in January 1857.

The blank spaces in the table correspond to periods in which par-ticular stocks were not used in constructing the stock price index num-hers.

Page 183: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A182 APPENDIX

TABLE 14—RMLR0AD STOCK PrncE RELATIVESJanU.aty I

Dates 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

1837—1858 .5855 .. .9201 .8093 .6706 1.0464.9402 1.06641858—1859 1.1841 9098 1.1551 .8968 1,0337 1.1746 1.2685 1.05511859—1860 1.2045 9235 1.0909 .7766 1.0593 .9947 1.21001860—1861 .8469 9619 1.5000 1.0483 1.0294 1.0985 1.0500 1.0932 1.25231861—1862 .8606 9965 .9039 .9289 7566 1.0713 .9671 .9634 .80921862—1863 1.7239 1.4236 1.8164 2.2465 1.7191 1.4901 1.2084 1.4028 1.76401863—1864 1.2056 1.4253 1.4662 1,5063 2.5704 .9767 1.0297 .95921864—1865 1.0585 .8137 1.2703 1.1463 1.1064 9941 1.2832 1.05881865—1866 1.0266 .9055 .8284 .6868 .9292 1.2613 .9281 .9891 .96471866—1867 1.0426 .8838 1.0469 .9505 1.0012 1.1424 1.0686 1.1225 1.1639 1.0864

1867—1868 1.0967 1.3280 1.0016 .8369 .9450 8221 .9317 1.0116 1.0498 1.03831868—1869 .9451 1.1324 .8714 1.0790 1.1130 1.0745 .9881 1.0191 1.0123 1.03471869—1870 1.0447 .6998 .9515 .8736 1.0678 1,0531 .8452 1.0668 .9789 .99901810—1871 1.0804 1.2817 .9775 .9947 1.0404 1.3280 1.0607 1.0278 .9738 1.03801871—1872 1.0681 1.4184 1.0156 1.0067 1.1482 1.0797 1.0780 1.0387 1.0817 .88771872—1873 1.0688 1.0440 .9641 .9282 1.0055 1.1205 .9255 .9022 .9730 .97831873—1874 1.0193 .6991 1.0600 1.0515 .9835 9542 .9854 .8353 .9545 .74891814—1875 1.2053 .8908 .9602 1.0513 .9822 1.1585 1.0544 1.1094 .8512 .70621875—1876 .9070 .6961 1.0671 1.1064 .9650 1.0177 .9883 .9350 .7978 .21921876—1877 .8764 .3303 .5350 .6074 .3149 9177 .2802 .9229 .8614 .4561

1877—1878 .6018 1.1382 .7472 .6860 .9815 7630 .5424 .9888 1.2067 .85271878—1879 1.0747 1.2414 .8504 .9952 .8139 1.0476 2.4843 1.113.5 1.1416 2.59901879—1880 1.7430 3.1967 1.8289 1.7338 2.5598 2.0549 1.0902 1.0044 2.56391880—1881 1.2451 1.3253 1.3065 1.3574 .8690 1.0802 1.2365 1.1064 1.22411881—1882 1.0294 .8726 1.0730 1.0760 1.0426 1.0539 .9848 93801882—1883 1.0254 .9210 1.0146 1.0170 .8763 7783 1.0335 1.06241883—1884 .9912 .7139 .9838 .9301 1.0012 1.1987 1.0673 97221884—1885 .8496 .7483 .6596 .7360 .3077 4186 1.0700 1.22771885—1886 1.1013 1.3286 1.3131 1.3829 1.2379 1.2117 1.0814 1.66611886—1887 .9191 1.1424 1.1179 1.1269 1.8493 1.4077 1.1238 1.6819

1887—1888 .6173 .9036 1.0426 .9659 1.6692 1.2552 1.0060 89411888—1889 .8456 .9117 1.2517 1.0854 .9764 1.2526 .85001889—1890 1.1207 .9881 1.1156 .9604 .7781 1.2656 1.17711890—1891 .9298 .8760 .9799 .9909 .8650 9087 1.09981891—1892 1.1564 1.2143 .9367 1.0593 1.2323 1.0278 .88361892—1893 1.0698 1.0191 1.0824 1.0659 1.2671 1.1174 1.06931893—1894 .7216 9805 1.0869 .3754 8910 .75071894—1895 .9320 1.0079 .9778 .5686 7854 1.26211895—1896 .6351 9623 .9877 .2504 1.1363 1.0100

1896—1897 .4005 9143 .9637 .6662 9901 .98791897—1898 .8921 9863 .9924 .8386 9417 1.03351898—1899 1.6162 9961 1.0445 1.0170 1.0725 1.00881899—1900 1.0233 1.0363 1.1064 .7914 1.1776 1.16821900—1901 1.5185 1.2448 1.1023 1.6746 1,3026 .97121901—1902 1.1904 1.2308 1.3826 1.8578 1.2650 .98971902—1903 .9948 9883 .9990 1.1492 9567 1.00211903—1904 .7960 9438 1.0000 .7079 8750 .87071904—1905 1.2717 1.1256 1.2615 1.8535 1.1945 1.04261905—1906 1.1102 1.2212 1.3699 1.7608 1.1725 .9936

1906—1907 1.0323 9847 1.0629 .8663 9482 .92511907—1908 .7248 7233 .9293 .7939 8093 .84341908—1909 1.2894 1.1319 1.1923 1.3449 1.3332 .99821909—1910 1.0566 1.0000 1.2474 1.1801 1.3189 1.08991910—1911 .9170 9337 .8962 .9485 8832 .80371911—1912 .9791 1.0214 1,0877 .9964 .85071912—1913 .9927 9735 1.0474 1.0703 .96241913—1914 .8956 . 9343 .9011 1.0290 .51041914—1915 .7593 9507 1.0402 .8760 .36121915—1916 1.2906 1.0349 1.0862 1.0757 1.3456

1916—1917 .9049 9914 1.0491 1.2624 1.11481917—1918 .6303 7253 .7447 .7295 .52121918—1919 .9018 9417 1.0249 1.0849 1,38391919—1920 .6862 9181 1.0125 .9545 1.17651920—1921 1.1125 1.0668 1.1784 1.1182 .67141921—1922 .9399 1.0750 1.0585 .8583 .64891922—1923 1.2957 1.0167 1.0897 1.0676 1.16011923—1924 1,3195 9932 .8905 .8639 .60771924—1925 1.3568 1.2741 1.2584 1.3712 1.50591925—1926 1,1532 1.1434 1.0491 1.1099 2.78681926—1927 1.1921 1.0952 .9680 1.1262 1.1636

1927—1928 1.0779 1.0322 1.1591 1.0370 1.09481928—1929 1.0506 1.0995 .9528 1.0866 1.73821929—1930 .9787 8474 1.0107 1.1521 .99121930—1931 .6472 8690 .6535 .6860 .61061931—1932 .2273 5103 .2582 .4170 .20261932—1933 .5150 6929 1.0187 .7769 .75141933—1934 2.7329 1.2181 1.1328 1.7132 1.62161934—1935 .4804 6242 .6291 .8054 .45001935—1936 1.3633 1.0206 .9783 .9985 1.4252

Page 184: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A183

1857 TO JANUARY 1936

January12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Dates

.7232 8480 .6011 1857—1858.8548 1.0747 1.7583 1858—1859

1.0464 1.2630 8695 1.2437 1859—1860.9177 1.4269 1.1158 1.0760 1.1151 1860—1861.9224 1.0363 .8312 1861—1862

1.6947 1.4302 1.3400 1.4181 2.3227 1862—18631.5209 1.3409 1.6807 1.2289 2,6026 1.1524 1.5125 1863—1864.7126 1.0193 .6860 .7143 8270 .7714 1864—1865

1.0600 1.1382 .7952 .8759 .9893 1865—18661.2379 9245 1.0529 1.2362 1.1087 1.22381866—1867

.9904 1.1706 1.5035 1.7002 1.1956 1.6025 1867—18681.3056 1.1468 .7824 1.510.1 1.2826 .9571 1868—1869.8274 9788 .5900 .8581 1.1202 1.2114 1869—1870

1.0179 9829 1.2305 1.0273 1870—18711.0235 9605 .7735 .9710 1871—18721.0275 1.1596 1872—1873.9241 .7280 1873—1874.9976 .7672 1874-1875

1.0375 .8870.9463 .8805

.9821 1.2776 1.0035 1877—18781,2414 1.5219 1.1382 1.5974 1878—18791.2246 2.4683 1.2131 1.5783 1879—1880.8281 1.3277 1.2636 1.4727 1.4282 .9697 1880—1881.9620 1.0812 1.0212 1.0617 .9841 .7475 1881—1882.9408 9910 1.0912 1.0435 1.4408 1882—1883.9326 9091 1.0280 .8700 .5997 1883—1884.9170 7212 .8998 .7598 .8245 1884—18851.2045 1.3864 1.1537 1.5470 1,2238 1.5136 1885—1886.9767 6667 .9544 1.6099 1.0493 1.2665 1886—1887

.8982 .9596 .8086 1887—1888

.8717 1.1161 .9931 3188 1888—1889

.9797 1.0349 1.0297 1.0404 1889—1890

.7269 .9594 .7482 1890-18911.3020 1.0834 1.3065 1.0993 1.8789 1891—1892.9390 .9690 1.0619.7589 .8903 6997 1893—1894.9579 .9485 .9291 13941895

1.0532 1.0942 1.0209 1.0459 1895—18961.0342 1.0028 1.0619 1.4525 1896—1897

1.3431 1,1259 1.1880 1.5087 1897—18981.3948 1.1166 1.1918 1.2773 1898—1899.9054 1.0977 12697 1899—1900

1.1521 1.1744 1.0700 1.0802 1900—19011.3721 1.0755 1.2173 1.0693 1901—19021.3459 1.1468 1.0532 1.1453 1902—1903

.9006 1903—19041.4987 1.1885 1.3552 1.2930 1904—1905

1.1355 1.1156 1.0347 1905—19061.1158 .9167 .8505 1906—1907

.7742 1907—19081.7061 1.1692 1.2465 1.2173 1908—19091.9222 .9791 1909-1910

191o—19111.0399 .9768

1912—19131913—19141914—1915

.9574 1.0493 1915—19161.8055 .9256 1916—1917

.4167 .7677 1917—19181.1825 1.0332 1.0114 1918—19191.1107 .9024 1919—19201.0186 1920—19211.1545 1.1236 .9093 1921—19221.0433 1.1176 1.2871 1922—1923.7642 .6385 1923—1924

1.8523 1.1358 1.4253 1924—19251.2266 1.0375 1.0619 1925—19261.2500 1.0118 1.0486 1926—1927

1.5320 1.1286 1.0602 1927—19281.2276 1.0271 1.0358 1928—1929.8632 .9133 .9641 1929—1930.4868 .6106 .4493 1930-1931.2206 .1753 .2418 1931—1932.3714 .9366 .5306 1932—1933.8528 2.5531 1.8603 1933—1934.5711 .4577 .5441 1934—1935.9772 1.3904 7500 1935—1936

Page 185: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A184 APPENDIX

TABLE 14--RAILROAD CoMMoN STOCK PRIcE RELATIVES

28 30

I.

.9395

.9054II1

I

I11

1

I1

1

1

1

11I1

1

I1

1

27

1.35581.1311

67401.2723.7568.5917

1.33511 . 4494.9283.9465

1. 0493.9 176

1.2009.93 12

.85801, 0053.9658.9528

1.18011.1564

80031.14001. 5329

.2339

.9970

.31372.46091.33292. 71961.5675

77821.04691.05081.16821.1535

25

.46211 .8884

.64871 .7738.8178

2.9696

5465.74706258

1. 7 6601.08942.29251.4980.8659.9591

1. 12331.0914

.9747

JanuaryDates

185 7—1 8581858—18591859—18601860—18611861—18621862—18631863—18641864—18651865—18661866—18671867—18681868—18691869—18701870—1871187 1—18 7 21872—18731873—18741874—18751875—18761876—18771871—18781878—18791879—18801880—18811881—18821882—18831883—18841884—1885I 8861886—18871887—18881888—1 8891889—18901890-18911891—18921892—18931893—1 8941894—18951895—1 8961896—18971897—18981898—18991899—19001900—19011901—19021902—19031903—19041904—19051905—19061906-19071907—19081908—19091909—19101910—19111911—19121912—19131913—1914191 4—1 9151915—19161916—19171917—19181918—19191919—1 9201920—1 92 11921—1 9221922—19231923—1 9241924—19251925—1 9261926—1 9271927—192819 28—192919 29—19301930—1931193 1—19321932—19331933—19341934—19351935—1936

23

.0268

.0330

.0673

.9903

.9981.0688.9407.0428.0780.1484.1458.8727.9617.8922• 7665.2050.0777

.9534

.0100

.9833.9591.1207.9576.8975.0018.9703.9784

.1998

.1674

.0590

.0597

.1910

.9464

.7802

.2170

.092 2

.8908

.7435

.3243.9897.92 28.9820.9891.85 55

24

95951.2100

.9481

.69311.0259

.96021.04861.01881.26941.09951.16901.03321.07471.18401.2430

.9319.6881.2568.6186

1.8988.5319

1.6203

26

.5 782

.9476

.70171.3538

.90741. 84881. 3568

.85839503

1.00251,03851.1811I . OOCO

.995 7

1.0595.9552.8432.96057504.8004

1.26241.34991 .10511.3602.70391.1303.9102.6443

1 .25391.2382.9478

1.02071.0945.9697

1, 1548.99 18.9252.9807.996 1.9501

1.1479

31

1.05614 F,,I •1. 1709

.8S90

.9430

.8431

.86341.10541.15241. 42921 .2990.853 7.9983.8544.6392

1.39671.0932

1.00251 .10511. 0 1251.02491. 12851.0656

.95091,11251.02381.09071 .1926

32

1 .00301.14081.08221 .04091.01271.23401 .0462

.97 17

.93541. 10411.1308

33

1. 03371 .09931.02611.04401.01111 .3508

.92 701. 0411

.913 41. 01111 .4273

Page 186: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A185

JANtJARY 1857 TO JANUARY 1936

January34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Dates

1857—18581.0515 1.0817 1858—1859

1859—18601.0464 1.0184 1.4362 1860—18611.1458 1.0097 1,6316 1861—18621.4635 1.6734 4.0170 1862—18631.1179 1.1074 1.2584 1.7374 1.2067 1863—18641.1668 .9796 1.1207 .8022 1.1855 1864—1865

1.0170 .8947 1865—18651.0102 1.0332 1.04141866—1867

1.0202 1.1161 9287 1867—18681.0371 .8968 1.0799 1.1752 1.0676 1.10941868—18691.0051 1.0271 1.0049 1.3080 1.1205 89241869—18701.0887 1.1184 1.1355 1.1981 9571 1870—1871

.9811 1.0767 .9875 1.2193 9503 1871—1872.9882 1.0259 .9643 9796 1872—1873.9448 .8507 .9637 8472 1873—1874.9712 .8622 1.1277 1.0457 1874—1875.9805 .8800 1.0014 1.0634 1875—1876.9565 .6118 .8755 7111 1876—1877.9615 .9964 .6554 6250 1877—1878

1.0760 1.1474 1.0696 8345 1878—18791.0696 1.9156 8.4411 1.5364 2.4615 1879—18801.1945 1.1709 1.0728 1.2812 1.3893 1880—1881.9821 .8715 1.0544 .9252 1.0619 1881—18821.0578 .9938 .9974 1.2255 1.1089 1882—18831.1182 .7826 .9700 1.0702 1.0812 1883—1884.9646 .5079 .863? 9664 .9313 1884—1885

1.0522 1.7266 1.9802 1.0595 1.2682 1.2817 1885—18861.1511 1.1403 7475 1.1709 1.0457 1.1447 1.0852 1886—1887

.9925 .8333 4786 .6627 .9776 9574 1.22941887—18881.0214 1.1285 7553 1.0483 .9930 1.0235 .89021888—18891.0704 1.4233 1.8109 .8271 1.0000 9743 .9229 1889—18901.0342 8745 .6887 1.2921 .9436 9707 .9359 1890—18911.0095 1.1585 1.4488 1.1943 1.0965 1.1048 1.0418 1891—18921.0529 8047 .8793 .9816 .9744 1.1636 1.0109 1892—1893

.9603 5893 .7419 .6516 .9129 8873 .9711 1893—18941.0321 1.1089 .9855 .8577 1.0228 8692 .9777 1894—18951.0067 8903 .8641 .9855 1.0351 9609 1.0266 1895—1896

.9952 8309 1.1744 .7436 1.0072 5873 1.00091896—18971.0585 1.2656 1.3222 .5248 1.1174 8205 1.1471 1897—18981.1363 1.4578 1.2249 .4756 1.1220 1.6719 1.1741 1898—1899

1.2003 1.0780 1.1787 1.0177 7663 1.0522 1899—19001.3177 1.3388 1.1490 9928 1900—1901

1.2642 1.1811 1.5867 1.0787 1.16441901—19029943 1.0854 1.4727 1.0351 1.1171 1902—19038111 .6682 7378 .7916 7644 1903—1904

1.2184 1.4246 1.1912 1.1439 1.24941904—19051.1179 1.2089 1.3125 1.0554 1.0193 1905—1906

8377 .8965 9866 .9364 1.0025 1906—1907

6139 .5857 .8368 8714 1907-19081,2761 1.9656 1.1719 1.2712 1908—19091.1321 1.4250 1.0757 1.1445 1909—1910

8082 .9594 .9553 1910—19118915 .8752 .9621 1911—19129304 1.0770 .9959 1912—19137312 .8169 .9124 1913—19145368 .6886 .9499 1914—1915

2.0922 1.4494 1.0998 1915—19161.1492 1.0109 .9711 1916—1917

1917—1918.9728 1918—1919.9266 1919—1920

1.0877 .9806 1920—19211921—1922

1.3008 1.3813 1922—1923.9492 1923—1924

1.0884 1924—19251.1110

.192.5—1926

1.2942 1.0720 1926—1927

1.1234 1927—19281.0831 1.2620 1928—19291.0743 .9824 1929—1930

1930—19311931—19321932—1933

1.5068 2.0152 1933—1934. 1.0384 .7011 1934—1935

1.4479 1935—1936

Page 187: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A186 APPENDIX

TABLE 14—RAILROAD CoMMoN STOCK PRICE RELATIVES

49 5048

.4073

.4098

.1904

.20121.61552.07491.3855

.7261

.9289

51 &52 '5546

.7 105

.66371. 15321.0445

.81843. 10891.8450

.95 72

.81791.43911.0745

.70521.18691. 1071

.8879

.852 21.39161.09751. 00181.02351.0100

.8358

.82991.14131.0032

JanuaryDates 45

1857—1858 .1858—1859 .1859—18601860—18611861—18621862—18631863—1864 .1864—18651865—18661866—18671867—18681868—18691869—18701870—18711871—1872j872—1873 .1873—18741874—18751875—18761876—18771877—18781878—18791879—18801880—18811881—18821882—18831883—18841884—1885 .69931885—1886 1.76481886—1887 1.23941887—1888 .78571888—1889 1.06341889—1890 1.11561890—1891 .82101891—18921892—18931893—18941894—1895 .

1895—18961896-1897 .

1897—18981898—18991899—19001900—19011901—19021902—1 9031903—19041904—19051905—19061906—19071907—19081908—19091909—19101910—1911IQ1I—19121912—19131913—19141914-19151915 19161916—19171917—19181918—19191919—19201920—1921 .

1921—19221922—19231923—19241924—19251925—19261926—19271927—1928 .1928—19291929—19301930—19311931—19321932—19331933—19341934—1935 .1935—1936

47

.81821.4132

.89421.29571.08491.32741.3219

.8834

.83541 .0363

.80661. 0740

.95941.13161.0207

.9715

.99681. 03251. 0264

.7652.8446.8618

1.49141.12641.04981.03511.1102

.8482

.96981.0044

.9823

.9865

.9669

.94331.01881. 1671

.6420

.90351.0671

.8043

.84 171.0325

.9 7551.26711.16171.1355

.88941.50351.4652

.9048

.78371.27821.41251 .0292

.97 12

.9485

.9304

.88671. 1676

.9920

.7312

.9727.7 705

1. 26 741. 07851. 1763

.96921.9156

.1.05491.3549

.83151.0595• 7335.7849.2456.9064

1.3097.5945.9423

5

.85781. 23911.46791. 1479

80151. 1008

.93 16

.8674

52

53

.5889

.8697

.7 7301.8001

.8299

1.40991.04211.14471.16921.29421.3677

.93391.0067

.9442.9360.8442

1.08121 .05341.0174

.87361.11251.25981. 4578

.8622

.9316

.9822

.99301, 16871.0023

.9369

.8498

.9767

.83711.2100

.9250

.7533

.93891.0600

.97501.35801.3348

.93391. 1790

54

.98251. 78571.1051

.7783

.6221

.8995

.6403

.7264

.9245

.6824

.82301.23772.63451. 34651.8763

56

.9822

.76321.3909

.7865

.732 71. 73301. 47471. 2017

.6468

.8392

.74441. 8811

.9583

.5365

.81771. 3070

.83071. 07051.79141.3020

.82281.0332

.48951.99071.09551. 87411.4990

.967 11. 1371

.8424

.82411.2694

.9558

.8493

.83911. 0935

.820 11. 4122

.99 14

.7181

.97381. 2 1841.10381. 26561. 3170

.939 11.29571. 11561.0930

.80361.20981.06611.0824

.73 151.34831.0172

.8349

.85061.0556

.9050

.87491.0942

.9075

.4959

.8718

.95487953

.62561. 22 74

.7039

.9326

.8400

.84411.78571.4844

P6856.2846.354 1.7520

3.0585I .4556I. .8092

6.40321 .03301. 01411.3721

.46817045

1.68231.0000

.81341. 16471.2382

.8787

.96 12

.6946

.2652

.71271.1722

.40681. 708.11.96161.09271.5963

.9626

.78281.1374

.9889

.8660

.97971.0202

.9442

.91391. 1130

.9403

.78301.0797

.87031.0605

.9017

.97 12

.71371.31611.06321. 103 11. 18331. 1386

.7826

.6290

.3503

.80201. 7281

.73331.3345

Page 188: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A187

1857 TO JANUARY 1936.

January57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 Dates

.. 1.0271 1857—18581.0750 1.1492 1858—18591.0226 1.0624 1859—1860

1861—18621.2921 1862—18631.1615 1.40.31 1,1413 1863—18641.0500 1.0430 8947 1864—1865

1.1487 1865—18661.3970 1866—1867

1.1869 1.2328 1867—18681.0952 1.0889 1.2092 1868—1869

1.0065 1869-18701.0605 1.0585 1870—1871

1.1329 1.0479 1871—18721.0462 1872—1873

9000 .9807 1873—18741.0715 .9724 1874—18751.1000 .9826 1875—18761.0219 .9688 1876—18771.0174 .9263 1877—18781.0330 1.0304 1.0772 1878—18799797 1.1218 1.2520 1879—1880

1.1403 1.1620 1.2972 1.4568 1880—18811.2549 9542 .9785 .7531 .2623 1881—18821.2779 1.0069 1.0872 .9884 1.0583 1882—1883.8680 1.0290 1.0233 .4810 1.0065 1883—1884.9113 1.0028 1.0580 .9062 .9497 1884—1885

1.3351 1.1556 1.0867 1.7390 1.0897 1885—18861.0354 1.0481 1.1228 .9375 1.0151 1886—1887

.9696 1.01.86 .9756 .9365 .9547 1887—1888

.9060 1.1358 .9736 .9505 1.0074 1.0549 1888—18891.1771 1.1123 1.0294 1.1647 .9710 .9690 1889—1890

1.0233 1.0612 .9516 .8359 .9636 .7108 1890—18911.6151 1.2578 1.0902 1.6680 189.1—18921.2170 1.1490 9237 1.0373 .9214 1892—1893

8178 .9509 .7945 1893—18941.0000 1.0399 1.0486 1.1023 .8637 [894—18951.1133 1.0186 8721 1.0476 .9908 1895—18961.0664 1.0580 1.0715 .9277 1896—1897

1.1202 1.0525 1.1251 .9996 1.1866 1897—18981.9147 1.0792 1.2903 1.0306 1.1795 1898—18991.0691 1.0678 1.0172 .9861 .7701 1899—19001.1782 1.4421 1.1593 1.6199 1900—19011.0874 1.0904 .9009 2.3388 1.675? 1901—19021.0937 1.0597 9657 1.0160 .8731 1.5206 1902—1903

6773 1.0000 .6832 .8851 1903—19041.3842 1.0275 1.8867 1.1695 1.5063 1.3586 1904—19051.2844 1.0273 1.2674 .8146 1.5707 1.0486 1905—19061.0116 8376 .7634 .8741 .8509 1906—1907

7537 .5288 .4793 .4514 1907—19081.1992 1.1992 1.3759 4.7457 1.8374 3.4562 1908—1909

1.0055 9934 .9549 1.1543 .9814 1909—19108919 .4815 1.0445 .4637 1910—1911

1.0242 .9056 .5833 .9225 59181.0454 8580 .9966 1.0188 .8889 1912—1913

.6055 .6805 1913—19148004 .8883 .8606 1914—1915

1.0628 1.3490 1.2411 1.1194 1.2112 1915—19169741 1.8151 .8460 1916—1911

7084 .4690 .4123 1917—19181.0435 1.0083 1.0000 .8322 1.9333 1918—1919

8547 1.0337 .9827 1919—19201.1031 1.0404 1.6842 1920—19211.1277 .4225 1.1251 1921—1922

1.0191 1.3561 9495 .7396 1.5000 1922—19239248 1.7002 .9687 1923—1924

1.2238 1.7632 1.3630 1.9552 1.6244 1924—19251.0869 1.3983 1.0700 .9483 1.3848 1925—19261.1082 1.0421 9717 .8096 1.0715 1926—1927

1,1474 1.4533 1.1199 1.1914 1.5173 1927—19281.1419 1.3777 .9723 2.0186 1.0534 1928—1929

1.2584 .9777 1929—19301930—1931

1.1121 1931—19321.2850 1932—1933

2.5526 1.2123 6.2917 1933—19341934—1935

2.1858 1.1127 2.0720 1935—1936

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A188 APPENDIX

TABLE COMMON STOCK PRICE RELATIVES

JanuaryDates 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78

1857—1858 ..1858—18591859—18601860—18611861—18621862—18631863—18641864—18651865—1866 .82351866—1867 1.0104

1867-1868 1.05441868—1869 1.41351869—1870 .83601870—1871 .95861871—1872 1.4511 1.53531872—1873 1.0009 1.82311873—1874 .71231874—1875 .34101875—1876 .26901876—1877 1.3763

1877—1878 2.40771878—1879 1.4309 1.8806 2.30361879—1880 2.7315 1.8531 3.49221880—1881 1.0275 1.1153 1.0762 1.01951881—1882 1.01461882—1883 83191883—1884 44981884—1885 70011885—1886 2.2151 1.8497 3.5826 1.01041886—1887 1.2856 1.6259 1.7386

1887—1888 1.05121888—1889 1.01161889—1890 1.2601 1.01811890—1891 1.1495 70321891—1892 1.3636 1.6029 1.3521 88001892—1893 1.6432 76031893—1894 5869 79051894—1895 1.09371895—1896 1.1138 90061896—1897 .9960 .8827 1.1978

1897—1898 1.1043 9786 1.4639 1.22461898—1899 1.1463 1.0259 1.59511899—1900 84061900—1901 1.7195 2.4055 1.70181901—1902 1.7824 1.4832 1.47841902—1903 1.3400 1.05781903—1904 62741904—1905 1.0426 1.4588 1.32861905—1906 1.0972 1.1855 1.04881906—1907 9481

1907—1908 57381908—1909 1.9861 1.9879 1.79021909—1910 1.2735 95051910—1911 79571911—1912 1.1130 80991912—1913 .5468 98841913—1914 1.0000 70951914—1915 82671915—1916 1.7378 70001916—1917 9580 2.1004

1917—1918 94561918—1919 1.0404 1.83021919—1920 1.21621920—1921 1.0390 1.0673 50251921—1922 1.37311922—1923 1.4161 1.2523 80361923—1924 1.3225 2.1637 97671924—1925 1.8084 1.3428 2.15481925—1926 2.1752 1.1471 1.30081926—1927 .9300 1.1249 9521

1927—1928 1.4662 1.5097 1.93721928—1929 1.1700 1.1092 1.58201929—1930 70221930—1931 82541931—19321932—19331933—1934 1.9668 3.22781934—19351935—1936 1.5485 1.0563

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RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A189

JANUARY 1857 TO JANUARY 1936

January79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 Dates

1857—18581858—18591859—18601860—18611861—18621862—18631863—18641864—18651865—18661866—1867

1867—18681868—18691869—18701870—18711871—18721872—18731873—18741874—18751875—1876

1.4438 [876—18771877—1878

8.2035 1.6.159 1878—18791.5038 6.7035 2.8801 1879—18801.1345 1.0894 1.7033 1880—1881

1.1556 1.0619 1881—18821.0179 5713 1882—1883.8586 8376 1883—1884

1,0488 1.0209 5258 1884—18851.1970 1.1965 1.8976 1.7037 1885—1886.9650 1.1107 1.0666 1.0332 1.5463 1886—1887

.8038 .8385 9735 1887—1888

.8469 9873 1888—18891.0137 .9816 1.6222 1889—1890.8654 1.1363 8763 1890—1891.9756 .9733 1.1773 1.4345 1,5164 1.0488 1891—1.892.9279 .9622 7615 .6428 .9401 1892—1893.3693 .5980 9076 .6667 .5915 1893—1894

1.0935 1.0294 9867 1.0000 1.1959 1894—18951.0454 1.1738 1.1120 1.0612 8550 1.0266 .8278 1895—1896.9051 .9551 12073 .9740 1.1492

1.5318 1.0313 1.1056 9595 9444 1.1497 1897—18981.3725 1.5999 2.0659 1.6600 1.0520 2.2070 1.1553 1898—1899.8925 .8845 1.3900 7353 1.1721 1.1973 1899—1900

1.9516 1.7775 1.2120 2.3383 1.6955 1.8690 1.1021 1900-19011.2747 1.4073 1.4645 1.7057 1.2951 1.4781 1.2948 1.1973 1901—19021.0713 .9252 1.4581 1.1094 1.7660 1.1169 1.0612 1.21001902—1903.8418 .5252 7855 .5700 .6142 .5267 .8555 1903—1904

1.1437 1.4856 1.0242 1.2715 1.4778 1.7947 1.7474 1.2735 1904—1905.9682 1.4070 1.0340 1.0720 1.1468 1.2117 .9350 1.1010 1905—1906.8668 .8721 7503 .7686 1.1115 .8442 1.0081 .9922 .9147 1906—1907

.4951 .5246 4438 .4786 6903 .8066 .6489 .6115 .6962 1907—19081.6214 1.9852 1.7551 1.6730 1.3954 1.7956 1.7036 1.5213 1.28061908—1909.9884 1.1210 2284 .6351 1.2012 .9833 1.0804 1.3868 1.2191 1909—1910.7065 .6474 1.0090 .6507 8719 .8148 .7305 .8798 .96041910—1911.8235 .7154 1.1492 .9344 1.0102 .8297 .8459 1.1000 1.0508 1911—1912

1.0387 1.0354 7157 1.6711 9988 .9540 .9649 1,1787 .9606 1912—1913.6443 .8090 8035 .7467 9209 .9908 .7818 .6727 .9883 1913—1914.4013 .3239 4552 .4833 9781 .8934 .4739 .7069 .8476 1914—1915.4912 2.1948 1,8690 1.2508 1.1110 1.2543 .6261 1.1256 1.09041915—1916

2.7893 1.1687 9432 1.7559 1.0053 .8600 1.4498 1.5657 1.02901916-1917

.6945 .2793 5093 .4375 1.0188 .8027 .6941 .5881 .7227 .8588 1917—19181.1087 1.0922 1.3750 .8357 .8859 1,4207 1,0892 1.0399 1.0000 .8140 1.0332 1918—19.191.0226 1.7789 1.2697 .9615 1.5272 .7797 .9012 .8717 1.7116 .7463 .9393 1919—1920.7641 1.1151 .9827 .8030 1.0708 1.0000 1.2747 .2889 2.1247 .92101920—1921.8683 5574 .7974 .6565 .7958 1.1508 1.1500 .3271 .7679 1.1125 1921—1922.9739 1.1269 1.3412 1.3274 1.4976 1.0554 .8965 1.8361 1.4666 1.19541922—1923.6618 9089 .9031 .9290 1.1543 .9852 .9515 .8298 1.1321 1.0819 1923—1924

3.1761 2.3137 1.5269 1.8932 1.9706 1.2001 1.8446 2.6098 1.4132 1.2289 1924—19251.1051 1.7104 1.0037 1.8884 1.6226 1.1223 1.2815 1.3065 1.3539 1.2371 1925—19261.0802 7933 1.4064 1.5762 1.1290 1.2408 .9513 .8210 .9409 .9681 1926—1927

1.2150 1.1765 2.1111 1.0771 1,1464 1.3685 1.1266 1.2011 1.1579 1927—19281.3406 1.0017 .9183 1.0191 1.0651 1.5979 1.3413 1.4093 .9802 1928—19291.3523 6560 .5960 8282 1.1390 .8452 .9880 .5762 .8941 1929—1930.3936 5000 .5962 6147 .8201 .4937 .4590 .4548 .7495 1930—1931.2377 2713 .4071 1712 .4514 .2772 .2541 .3405 .2702 1931—1932.3950 5609 .9017 5029 .8217 1.1784 9258 1932—1933

1.3021 2.1428 1.8559 1.4810 1.6913 1.5357 2.1700 1933—1934.5800 7840 .8466 7961 .5212 .5228 8084 1934—1935

1.2240 8707 1.0906 1.3310 1.8249 1.2455 1.5058.1935—1936

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A190 APPENDIX

TABLE COMMON STOCK PRIcE RELATIVES

JanuaryDates 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100

1857—18581858—18591859—1 8601860—18611861—1 8621862—18631863—18641864—1 8651865—1 8661866—18671867—18681868—18691869—18701870—18711871—18721872—18731873—18741874—18751875—18761876—18771877—1878 1.06911878—18791879—1880 1.4434 4.59411880—1881 .8048 1.2975 2.00401881—1882 1.2117 1.43851882—1883 .71921883—1884 .8466 8413 .9119

1884—1885 .6863 6495 1.0242 .9274 .73261885—1886 1.3715 1.0829 1.5167 2.1242 1.7084 1.60141886—1887 1.7685 1.1282 1.2665 1.0780 1.1405 1.0000

1887—1888 .9189 9680 .5373 7323 .9057

1888—1889 1.0637 1.1174 2.6638 9381 .87771889—1890 1.2360 1.0539 1.1773 1.9165 2.1483 1.45451890—1891 .9171 4060 .7216 1.7595 6122 .9761

1891—1892 1.0093 1.0624 1.4223 1.6372 1.4019 9290 1.23821892—1893 .9888 7561 .8529 .9169 7773 .9672

1893—1894 .7955 2232 .6399 .4902 3278 .81251894—1895 .9571 9403 .8355 .8875 6120 .76741895—1896 1.1269 1.1426 1.5027 1.1439 .9796

1896—1897 1.5094 6962 .9565 6057 1.0233

1897—1898 1.4282 1.3690 1.1225 1.57541898—1899 2.1067 1.8437 1.2014 8908 .98501899—1900 1.0134 9675 1.0985 6492 1.0822 1.59181900—1901 1.7877 1.2081 1.4325 8667 .9704 .92941901—1902 1.2272 1.3375 1.6248 1.2425 1.2700 2.16221902—1903 1.0049 1.0937 1.0639 1.3434 1.2252 1.68271903—1904 5979 .7076 .8779 .54321904—1905 1.3462 1.4911 1.4025 1.6226 1.2048 1.1692 1.52441905—1906 1.3262 1.3044 1.0462 1.1434 1.3192 1.3068 1.39441906—1907 7985 1.1405 1.3465 7489 .7931 1.1825 .8571

1907—1908 5550 .5959 3800 .6565 .8637 .44441908—1909 1.5293 1.4693 1.5940 2.3286 2.5545 1.1395 2.26521909—1910 1.2037 1.0785 1.1082 1.1992 1.2142 1.0882 .9251

1910—1911 9125 .8969 8720 1.2145 1.1293 .70861911—1912 1.1308 .9641 1.0254 .8862 1.1803 .77361912—1913 9853 .9490 9842 .9056 1.1251 .89771913—1914 9259 9984 9135 .9457 .8765 .60121914—1915 8512 .9315 6369 .8019 .7593 1.00811915—1916 .1.1021 1.1379 1.1874 1.3788 1.0186 1.0817 1.10001916—1917 1.0351 1.0700 1.4223 1.4061 .9178 .9782

1917—1918 7723 .7840 7428 .7329 .88901918—1919 1.0723 1.1179 1.2017 1.1822 .8528 1.11251919—1920 9364 .9671 1.0278 7982 .9255 .82241920—1921 9335 .9725 1.07101921—1922 1.0191 1.0673 1.0127 1.04641922—1923 1.3071 1.0740 1.1087 1.5314 1.16551923—1924 1.0055 .9449 9832 1.5385 1.03841924—1925 1.3131 1.1604 1.1987 1.8315 1.01341925—1926 1.5651 .9771 1.48121926—1927 8260 1.1015 1.0624 1.0622 1.1218

1927—1928 9788 1.1764 1.1210 1.1758 1.27811928—1929 9559 1.1522 1.0916 1.0514 1.17041929—1930 9532 .99831930—1931 6696 .86201931—1932 2967 .40211932—1933 6141 .9712

1933—1934 2.1951 1.6220 1.4f57 5.0493 1.16961934—1935 7307 .88411935—1936 .9392 1.0946 1.5756 1.0326 .9414

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RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A191

1857 JANUARY 1936

____________________ ______ ______

January102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 Dates

1837—18581858—1839

1860—18611861—18621862—18631863—18641864—18651865—18661866—1867

1867—18681868—18691869—18701870—18711871—18721872—18731873—18741874—18751875—18761876—18771877—18781878—18791879—1880

1.5329 1.1806 1880—18811881—1882

1.0698 7857 .5972 1.4090 1882—18831.0882 5941 .6107 .5627 1883—1884

9639 1.2257 .7077 t884—18851.0607 1.1187 1.8022 1.7494 1885—18861.6928 1.4398 1.1682 .9443 2.1350 1886-1887

1.1447 .5875 .3884 1887—18881.1561 6864 1.1064 .7534 1888—1889

6666 1.3271 1.1241 1.3122 E889—18909055 .8800 1890—1891

1.2238 1.3443 1.7964 1.9829 1.1010 1891—18922.1903 1.8340 .7162 .5659 1892—1893

6065 .7042 .5386 1893—18943711 .8486 .8320 1894—1895

1.3756 1.3571 .5220 1895—18961.0476 .8995 .4311 1896—1897

1.4220 1.3256 1.2581 1.0452 3.1579 1897—18981.5842 1.5693 1.3092 1.2540 1.1874 1898—1899

1.4883 1.0151 1.2924 .7193 1899—19001.2001 2.6002 1.1625 2.0216 1.8256 1.3858 1900—19012.0128 2.4044 1.5485 1.6099 1.2886 1,3274 1901—19021.9046 1.2906 1.0069 1.1254 1.3038 1.2017 1902—1903.8161 5977 .4831 .7972 .5740 1903—1904

1.5474 8962 1.4080 1.3292 1.4191 1904—19051.6132 1.4099 1.0664 1.1282 .9623 1905—1906.8152 7048 .8214 .9917 .7521 1906—1907

.7014 4340 .4467 .7567 .3822 1907—19081.6196 2.3736 2.6996 1.3280 1.4296 1908—19091.0275 8282 .8150 1.1064 .4002 1909—1910.9990 5443 .7162 1.0624 .6746 1910-1911

1.0268 9931 .7250 1.0479 .8174 1911—19121.0556 1.0216 .9186 1912—1913.9204 9178 .7745 .9455 1913—1914.8621 9897 .8620 .7280 1914—1915

1.1036 2.1385 1.1668 1.2156 1.3035 1913—1916.9551 1.5707 1.1431 .9862 .9891 1916—1917

.7227 3852 .4988 7727 .5760 .4638 1917—19181.0532 1.0000 1.0205 1.0144 1.0000 1.0238 1918—1919.8134 2.3036 1.4448 9164 1.0884 .8852 .9677 1919—1920

6122 .1.2526 1.0309 1.0141 .9018 1.16681920-19211.0960 .9558 9814 .7181 .4665 .62861921—19221.8720 1.0462 1.1371 .7884 1.8793 2.4763 1922—1.9231.1353 .9284 9357 1.0000 1.1965 1.16601923—19241.6162 2.8629 1.2377 2.0105 3.1340 1.6531 1924—1.9251.2257 1.6402 1.1763 1.1408 2.1802 1.2906 1925—19261.4077 1.0476 1.0414 .8767 .7791 1.1899 1926—1927

1.0738 1.1215 1.1860 1.1978 .7406 1.3706 1927—19281.2456 1.0659 1.0512 1.8136 .6866 .9718 1928—192')

9779 .9217 1.1820 .6922 .5473 .7752 1929—19305145 .4854 8856 .4617 .0022 .4685 1930—19311223 .0910 5821 .5507 .5319 .3846 1931—19326544 .2474 9896 .7113 .6200 1932—1933

3.5078 2.8908 1.4214 1.5316 4.4516 1933—19347511 .4913 1.0085 .4854 .5435 1934—1935

1.9036 1.3313 .. . . . 1.2797 .9700 1.3333 1935—1936

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RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A193

TABLE 15

RAILROAD COMMON STOCK WEIGHTS,JANUARY 1857-JANuARY 1936

The numbers at the heads of columns are the numbers assigned tothe various railroads in Chart 32. IFor example, the figures of Column 1refer to the Baltimore and Ohio Railroad. The figures in the singlecolumn entitled '51 and 52' refer first to the Chicago, Milwaukee andSt. Paul Railway (January 1874 to January 1928) and then (lower down)they refer to the Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Paul and Pacific Railroad(January 1928 to January 1936).

Each weight in Table 15 is the ratio of the market value of thetotal outstanding common stock of a specified railroad in the earlierJanuary of the thirteen months designated in column 1 to the marketvalue of the total outstanding common stock of all the railroads whosestocks in that particular thirteen months' period were used in constructingthe railroad common stock price weighted index number. For ex-ample, the first figure in the table is . 0587. This means that the marketvalue of the total outstanding common stock of the Baltimore & OhioRailroad in January 1857 was . 0587, or a little less than one-seventeenth,of the market value of the total outstanding common stock of all the 27railroads whose stock prices were used for constructing the railroad stockprice index in the period January 1857 to January 1858 inclusive.

From this definition of the meaning of the figures in the table it fol-lows that, for any particular thirteen months' period, the sum of theweights equals unity.

Though the January figures for the weighted index number of rail-road stock prices given in Table 16 might be calculated perfectly fromthe price relatives of Table 14 and the weights of Table 15 theywere not in fact so calculated. If from January to January each year, achain weighted arithmetic average of relative prices index number wereconstructed by using the r&ative prices of Table 14 and the weights ofTable 15, the movements of such an index number could be shown tobe identical with the movements of a chain weighted aggregate of actualprices index number where the prices were dollars per share and theweights were the number of shares outstanding in the earlier January.This latter is how the railroad common stock price weighted indexnumber was actually constructed.

The blank spaces in the table correspond to periods in which par-ticular stocks were not used in constructing the stock price index num-bers.

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A194 APPENDIX

TABLE CoMMoN STOCK WEIGHTS

JanuaryDates 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1857—1858 .0587 0640 .0125 .0621 0243 .0088 .00861858—1859 .0458 0784 .0135 .0550 0339 .0110 .01101859—1860 .0524 0689 .0155 .0472 0375 .0135 .01251860—1861 .0660 0665 .0271 .0383 0051 .0343 .0415 .0140 .01581861—1862 .0492 0571 .0364 .0353 0046 .0332 .0384 .0135 .01741862-1863 .0551 0568 .0333 .0332 0035 .0360 .0376 .0132 .01431863—1864 .0584 0492 .0397 .0454 0277 .0113 .01591864—1865 .0469 .0255 .0464 .0459 .0735 0179 .0077 .01081863—1866 .0492 .0217 .0584 .0782 .0760 0176 .009R .01131866—1867 .0501 .0182 .0479 .0533 .0704 0074 .0515 .0162 .0096 .0121

1867—1868 .0450 .0140 .0433 .0522 .0683 0073 .0504 .0157 .0096 .01231868—1869 .0412 .0156 .0542 .0383 .0565 0050 .0426 .0145 .0084 .01061869—1870 .0332 .0147 .0406 .0355 .0515 0046 .0361 .0127 .0073 .00971870—1871 .0346 .0105 .0386 .0413 .0578 0048 .0305 .0136 .0071 .00991871—1872 .0334 .0120 .0334 .0364 .0529 0054 .0310 .0135 .0062 .00961872—1873 .0319 .0153 .0306 .0351 .0622 0052 .0371 .0160 .0060 .0077

1873—1874 .0319 .0149 .0275 .0358 .0584 0055 .0321 .0137 .0055 .00811874—1875 .0336 .0108 .0388 .0390 .0596 0053 .0328 .0118 .0054 .00631875—1876 .0403 .0096 .0370 .0449 .0582 0063 .0352 .0130 .0046 .0044

1876—1877 .0359 .0063 .0388 .0489 .0552 0068 .0344 .0118 .0036 .0010

1877—1878 .0398 .0027 .0262 .0379 .0219 0079 .0122 .0138 .0039 .00051878—1879 .0284 .0034 .0214 .0284 .0235 0064 .0065 .0149 .0051 .00051879—1880 .0242 .0036 .0156 .0242 .0164 0139 .0142 .0050 .0011

1880—1881 .0264 .0072 .0178 .0263 .0267 0178 .0098 .0032 .00181881—1882 .0241 .0070 .0171 .0261 .0171 0141 .0089 00161882—1883 .0252 .0062 .0187 .0286 .0181 0151 .0089 00161883—1884 .0243 .0054 .0178 .0273 .0149 0111 .0086 00161884—1885 .0267 .0043 .0228 .0281 .0167 0147 .0102 00171885—1886 .0275 .0039 .0182 .0252 .0063 0075 .0133 00251886—1887 .0239 .0041 .0197 .0275 .0071 0071 .0113 0033

1887—1888 .0199 .0042 .0199 .0280 .0122 0091 .0115 00501888—1889 .0129 .0040 .0217 .0283 .0211 0119 .01211889—1890 .0113 .0038 .0283 .0320 .0165 0156 .01071890—1891 .0114 .0033 .0283 .0275 .0115 0177 .01131891—1892 .0117 .0032 .0340 .0301 .0110 0177 .02241892—1893 .0101 .0033 .0264 .0265 .0114 0181 .02121893—1894 .0108 0286 .0282 .0146 0203 .02291894—1895 .0098 0357 .0390 .0069 0230 .02181895—1896 .0093 0415 .0390 .0040 0184 .02821896—1897 .0057 0384 .0369 .0049 0201 .0273

1897—1898 .0022 0345 .0350 0196 .02661898—1899 .0018 0315 .0321 0171 .02541S99—1900 .0147 0240 .0257 0140 .02011900—1901 .0154 0238 .0275 0188 .02591901—1902 .0241 0257 .0263 0214 .02351902—1903 .0314 0242 .0279 0209 .01791903—1904 .0448 0213 .0249 0179 .01621904—1905 .0409 0231 .0286 0180 .01641905—1906 .0402 0234 .0279 0166 .01341906—1907 .0412 0216 .0288 0147 .0116

1907—1908 .0435 0223 .0313 0142 .01101908—1909 .0406 0208 .0375 0148 .01201909—1910 .0377 0170 .0322 0143 .00881910—1911 .0356 0152 .0362 0168 .00861911—1912 .0345 0150 .03421912—1913 .0336 0152 .03511913—1914 .0320 0142 .0376 00771914—1915 .0314 0145 .03711915—1916 .0274 0159 .04441916—1917 .0307 0143 .0420

1917—1918 .0285 0145 .04501918—1919 .0233 0137 .04351919—1920 .0198 0121 .04191920—1921 .0147 0121 .04621921—1922 .0166 0131 .05521922—1923 .0165 0145 .06361923—1924 .0183 0126 .05931924—1925 .0248 0129 .05431925—1926 .0270 0132 .05501926—1927 .0270 0132 .0499

1927—1928 .0294 0159 .04421928—1929 .0362 0135 .03341929—1930 .0393 0128 .02761930—1931 .0384 0077 .02531931—1932 .0312 0063 .02061932—1933 .0313 0063 .02071933—1934 .0313 0063 .02071934—1935 .0313 0063 .02071935—1936 0313 0063 .0207 .

11

Page 196: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A195

JANUARY 1857 TO JANUARY 1936

January12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Dates

.0359 1597 .0087 1857—1.858.0373 1812 .0069 1858—1859.0308 1867 .0118 1859—1.860.0337 1696 .0153 1860—1861.0272 1606 .0150 1861—1.862.0254 1685 .0126 1862—1863.0263 0786 .0041 0283 .0038 1470 .0207 1863—1864.0283 0843 .0046 1148 .0292 1864—1865.0200 0851 .0031 0925 .0238 1865—1866.0227 0983 .0026 0796 .0247 1866—1867

.0261 0783 .0023 0874 .0356 1867—1868

.0332 0764 .0029 0871 .0475 1868—1869

.0372 0754 .0020 0970 .0450 1869—1870

.0373 0737 .0012 1870—1871

.0376 0642 .0013 1871—1872

.0347 1872-1873

.0438 1873—1874.0420 1874—1875.0416 1875—1876.0424 1876-1877

.0507 18771878

.0457 0019 .0471 1878—1879

.0486 0024 .0459 1879—1880.0372 0037 .0348 0160 .0079 1880—1881.0498 0036 .0322 0167 .0071 1.81—1882.0489 . .. 0040 .0335 0186 .0058 1882—1883.0432 0037 .0344 0290 .0085 1883—1884.0446 0037 .0355 0331 .0062 1884-1885.049.6 0033 .0388 0305 .0062 1885—1886.0472 0036 .0366 0295 .0063 1886—1887

.0459 0280 .0072 1887—1888

.0431 0281 .0061 1888—1889

.0391 .0290 .0052 1889—1890

.0344 0268 .0048 1890—1891

.0276 0284 .0040 1891—1892

.0298 .0013 0322 .0062 ... 1892—1893

.0279 0312 .0066 1893—1894

.0270 0354 .0059 1894—1895

.0264 0343 .0056 1895—1896

.0267 0336 .0056 1896—1897

.0272 0351 .0080 1897—1898

.0337 0385 .0112 1898—1899

.0360 .0434 0352 .0109 1899—1900

.0315 0373 .0134 1900-1901

.0315 0347 .0126

.0375 0324 .0103 1902—19030306 .0106 1903—19040328 .0109 1904—19050343 .0109 1905—19060408 .0085 1906-19070421 .0074 1907—19080446 .0074 1908—1909

1909—19101910-19111911—19121912—19131913—19141914—1913

.0036 1915—1916

.0030 1916-1917

.0083 1917—1918

.0045 1918—1919

.0050 0381

.0060 1920—1921

.0062 1921—1922

.0074 1922—1923.0066 1923—1924.0052 1924—1925.0078 1925—1926.0083 1926-1927

.0094 0226 1927—1928.0119 0197 1928—1929.0126 0177 1929—1930.0111 0237 1930—1931.0091 0193 1931—1932.0091 0194 1932—1933.0091 0194 1933—1934.0091 0194 1934—1u35.0091

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A196 APPENDIX

TABLE 15—RAILROAD COMMON STOCK WEIGHTSJanuary

Dates 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

1857—1858 .0094 .0414 .0368 .0366 0271 .03451858—1859 0058 .0319 .0116 .0266 0362 .04751859—1860 .0106 .0292 0110 .0192 0399 .05051860—1861 .0037 .0126 0451 .05411861—1862 0112 .0293 0080 .0195 .0413 .04971862—1863 0093 .0269 0108 .0216 0424 .05091863—1864 0178 .0319 0319 .04191864—1865 0185 .0425 0221 .02571865—1866 0175 .0365 .0212 .02911866—1867 0228 .0369 0197 .0259

1867—1868 .0215 .0357 0188 .03501368—1869 .0210 .0328 .02371869—18701870—1871 .16161871—1872 .14711872—1873 .13691873—1874 .13651874—1875 1470 .06521875—1876 .14671876—1877 .1541

1877—1878 .1830 .0180 .05521878—1819 .2085 .02491879—1880 .1925 .0287 .0146 .06581880—1881 .1383 .0199 .0124 .05881881—1882 .1160 .0198 .01031882—1883 .1032 .0142 .00711883—1884 .0932 .0151 .00841884—1885 .0921 .0152 .00711885—1886 .0857 .01 19 .0051 .03361886—1887 .0816 .0118 .0053

1887—1888 .0796 .0132 .00701888—1889 .0793 .0131 .00681889—1890 .0834 .0139 .0067 .04421890—1891 .0735 .0137 .0063 .04011891—1892 .0778 .0146 .0064 .04541892—1893 .0723 .0140 .0064 .04251893—1894 .0744 .0139 .0060 .04531894—1895 .0850 .0163 .00661895—1896 .0906 .0164 .00681896—189? .0844 .0157 .0063

1897—1898 .0812 .0147 .00591898—1899 .0900 .00641899—1900 .0805 .00571900—1901 .0886 .00441901—1902 .0814 .00441902—1903 .07451903—1904 .07161904—1905 .06411905—1906 .06021906—1907 .0538

1907—1908 .05591908—1909 .0536

.05121910—1911 .03401911—1912 .05251912—1913 .05131913—1914 .04911914—19151915—19161916—1917

1917—19181918—19191919—19201920—19211921—19221922—19231923—19241924—19251925—19261926—1927

1927—1928 .09541928—1929 .10841929—1930 .1211

1930—1931 .07481931—1932 .06081932—1933 .06111933—1934 . .06101934—1935 . .06101935—1936 .0610 . ..

Page 198: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A197

JANUARY 1857 ro JA.NUARY 1936

34 35 3637 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Dates

1857—18581858—18591859—18601860—18611861—18621862—1863

0907 .0222 .0258 .0089 1863—18640987 .0244 .0335 .0102 1864—18650878 .0307 .0334 .0163 1865—18660756 .0330 .0297 .0139 1866—18670695 .0334 .0265 .0125 1867—1868

.0516 .0146 0725 .0284 .0246 .0099 1868—1869

.0506 .0163 0800 .0286 .0228 0098 1869—1870

.0508 .0185 0091 1810—1871

.0557 .0220 0078 1871—1872.0492 .0225 .0074 1372—1873.0459 .0215 0071 1873—1874.0449 .0190 0062 1874-..1875.0438 .0163 0064 1875—1876.0422 .0141 0067 1876—1877

.0510 .0109 0060 1877—1878

.0535 .0119 0041 1878—1879

.0493 .0117 0029 1879—1880

.0328 .0140 33 0045 1880-1881

.0287 .0120 0046 1881—1882

.0287 .0106 0089 .0056 1882—1883

.0286 .0099 0103 .00.58 1883—1884

.0321 .0086 0122 .0070 1884—1385

.0377 .0053 0143 .0079 1885—1835

.0313 .0072 0016 .0032 0143 .0080 1886—1887

.0315 .0075 0011 .0034 0941 0148 .0079 1887—1888

.0327 .0065 0005 .0024 0961 0149 .0102 1888—1889

.0347 .0076 0025 .0026 1059 0190 .0094 1889—1890

.0334 0151 .0094 .0019 1026 0166 .0081 1890—1891

.0338 .0149 .0071 .0027 1073 0178 .0084 1891—1892

.0353 0143 .0111 .0025 1005 0163 .0072 1892—1893

.0372 .0115 .0100 .0025 0978 0189 .0073 1893—1394

.0454 0086 .0094 .0021 1136 0214 .0090 1894—1895

.0481 0098 .0094 .0018 1188 0190 .0090 1895—1896

.0463 0084 .0078 .0017 1181 0175 .0089 1896—1897

.0453 0068 .0090 .0013 1170 0101 .0088 1897—1898

.0443 .0080 .0110 .0006 1207 0077 .0093 1898—18990089 .0104 0017 .1038 0098 .0084 1899—19000104 .0108 0020 .1149 0085 1900—19010111 .0123 0023 .1145 0106 1901—19020108 .0112 0030 .1205 0095 1902—19030096 .0113 .1237 0095 1903—19040089 .0087 0033 .1465 0083 1904—19050107 .0095 0031 .1299 0112 1905—19060101 .0087 0030 .1045 0086 1906—1907

0102 .0079 1028 0089 1907—19080081 .0060 1108 0100 1908—19090073 .0085 0937 0091 1909—19100075 .0109 1111 1910—19110064 .0110 1233 1911—19120057 .0096 1180 1912—19130051 .0099 1227 1913—19140041 .0088 1238 1914—19150025 .0070 1353 1915—19160046 .0088 1294 1916—1917

1286 1917—19181364 1918—19191247 1919—19201255 1920—19211248 1921—19221066 . 1922—19231262 1923—19241230 1924—19251077 1925—19261035 1926—1927

1016 1927—19281050 1928—19291119 1929—19301944 1930—19311588 1931—19321609 1932—19331610 1933—19341510 1934—1935

.0936 1510 1935—1936

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A198 APPENDIX

TABLE COMMON STOCK WEIanPS

JanuaryDates 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 & 52 53 54 .55 56

1857—1858 0095 .0199....1858—1859 0112 .01081859—1860 0161 .00431860—1861 0151 .00081861—18621862—18631863—18641864—18651865—18661866—1867

1867—1868 0391 .00321868—1869 .' 0431 .00251869—1870 0506 .00381870—1871 0439 .00971871—1872 0500 .00671872—1873 0423 .00831873—1874 0370 .00691874—1875 0115 .0328 .00461875—1876 0094 .0483 .00331876—1877 0095 .0504 .0030

1877—1878 0059 .0650 .00261878—1879 0128 .0629 .00231879—1880 0120 .0664 .0025 .00301880—1881 0141 .0513 .0041 .0195 .00181881—1882 0154 .0830 .0040 .0148 .00131882—1883 0192 .0653 0153 .00101883—1884 0269 .0705 0197 .00131884—1885 .0007 0251 .0767 0102 .00121885—1886 .0006 0251 .1006 0087 .00101886—1887 .0010 0251 .0928 0116 .0014

1887—1888 .0013 0275 .0830 0105 .00191888—1889 .0010 0248 .0813 0089 .00241889—1890 .0011 0218 .0719 0108 .00161890—1891 .0011 0246 .0630 0120 .00121891—1892 0026 .0342 0223 .0582 0107 .00101892—1 893 0051 .0289 0261 .0584 0086 .00151893—1894 0036 .0337 0259 .0582 0059 .00151894—1895 0029 .0275 0236 .0555 0020 .00101895—1896 0035 .0254 0235 .0533 0015 .00081896—1897 0035 .0261 0275 .0543 0016 .0011

1897—1898 0028 .0206 0299 .0520 0099 .00091898—1899 0081 .0160 0355 .0673 0156 .00091899—1900 0115 .0127 0360 .0688 0235 .00121900—1901 0106 .0120 0328 .07101901—1902 0076 .0131

1902—1903 0084 .01171903—1904 0081 .01201904—1905 .01221905—1906 .0060 .0141

1906—1907 0050 .0156 .0750

1907—1908 0052 .0144 .0304

1908—1909 0058 .0146 .0287

1909—1910 0058 .0134 .0389

1910—1911 0071 .0170 .0354

1911—1912 0078 .0226 .0312

1912—1913 0079 .0220 .0264

1913—1914 0077 .0200 .0268

1914—1915 0070 .0204 .0266

1915—1916 0068 .0208 .0270

1916—1917 0152 .0211 .0256

1917—1918 0214 .0238

1918—1919 0204 .0153

1919—1920 0186 .0126

1920—1921 0156 .0130

1921—1922 0200 .0105

1922—1923 0223 .0068

1923—1924 0224 .0071

1924—1925 0223 .0052

1925—1926 0212 .0039

1926—1927 0194 .0028

1927—1928 0240 .00221928—1929 0164 [.00411929—1930 0150 .00531930—1931 0181 .01761931—1932 0147 521932—1933 0148 .01441933—1934 0148 .01441934—1935 0148 .01441935—1936 .0144 .0303

Page 200: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A199

JANUARY 1857 TO JANUARY 1936

January57 58 39 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 Dates

1857—18581838—18391859—18601860—18611861—18621862—1.863

0050 1863-48640047 1864—1865

1865—18661866—1267

1867—18681868—18691869—18701870—18711871—18721872—1873

0340 .0117 1873—18740317 .0121 1874—18750338 .0117 1875—18760365 .0113 1876—18770471 .0138 1877—18780524 .0139 1878—18790465 .0127 1879—18800285 .0094 .0186 .0137 1880-1881

.0115 0238 .0082 .0177 .0146 1881—1882

.0196 0232 .0082 .0136 .0129 1882—1883

.0235 0219 .0114 .0126 .0139 1883—1884.0166 0249 .0131 .0067 .0174 1884—1885.0184 0304 .0176 .0074 .0202 1885—1886.0194 0277 .0156 .0101 .0174 1886—1887

.0182 .0263 .0159 .0086 .0160 1887—1888

.0184 .0280 .0170 .0084 .0159 .0020 1888—1889

.0174 .0331 .0176 .0083 .0167 .0022 1889—1890.0168 .0087 .0146 .0019 1890—1891

0080 .0155 .0015 1891—18920084 .0140 .0020 1892—18930077 .0164 .0019 1893—18940080 .0198 .0019 1894—18950086 .0253 .0017 1895—18960072 .0255 .0016 1896—1897

0075 .0269 .0015 1897—18980078 .0248 .0016 1898—18990077 .0196 .0014 1899—19000076 .0039 .0011 1900-19010095 .0039 .0015 .0006 1901—19020079 .0027 .0027 .0008 1902—19030069 .0025 .0021 .0011 1903—19040053 .0028 .0017 .0011 1904-19050078 .0025 .0019 .0011 1905—19060074 .0016 .0023 .0009 1906—1907

0064 .0021 .0012 .0008 1907—19080062 .0008 .0013 .0004 1908—19090061 .0029 .0017 .0011 1909—19100055 .0017 .0024 .0010 1910—19110051 .0012 .0019 .0005 1911—19120046 .0007 .0018 .0003 1912—19130038 .0007 .0017 1913—19140037 .0005 .0013 1914—19150034 .0005 .0013 19.15—19160037 .0005 .0013 1916—1917

0037 .0008 .0012 1917—19180034 .0005 .0006 1918—19190032 .0004 .0011 1919—19200030 .0005 .0012 1920-19210033 .0005 .0021 1921—19220038 .0002 .0024 1922—19230031 .0001 .0031 1923—19240030 .0002 .0055 1924—19250032 .0004 .0086 1923—19260030 .0003 .0103 1926—1927

. .0027 .0002 .0101 1927—1928

. .0025 .0002 .0065 1928—1929

. .0021 1929—1930. .0087 1930—1931. .0071 1931. —1932

.0071 1932—1933. .0071 1933—1934. .0071 .0041 1934—1935

.0192 . .0071 .0041 . 1935—1936

Page 201: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A200 APPENDIX

TABLE CoMMoN STOCK WEIGHTSJanuary

Dates 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78

1857—18581858—18591859—18601860—18611861—18621862—18631863—18641864—1 8651865—1866 .00421866—1867 .0081

1867—1868 .00711868—1869 .00621869—1870 .01001870—1871 .01671871—1872 .0142 .03241872—1873 .0185 .04481873—1874 .0173 .07631874—1875 .0128 .06201875—1876 .0043 .03661876—1877 .0012 .0207

1877—1878 .01581878—1879 .01491879—18801880—1881 0133 .00431881—1882 01051882—1883 01351883—1884 01051884—1885 00531885—1886 00451886—1887 0038

1887—18S8 00671888—1889 00731889—1890 00701890—1891 00641891—1892 .0010 00501892—1893 00361893—1894 .0018 00281894—1895 00281895—1896 .0015 00311896—1897 0132 .0011 00271897—1898 0129 .0010 00321898—1899 00361899—1900 00441900—1901 00361901—1902 00531902—19031903—1904 00511904—1905 00411905—1906 00421906—1907 0033

1907—1908 00321908—1909 00241909—1910 00311910—1911 00261911—1912 00221912—1913 00181913—1914 00171914—1915 0004 00131915—1916 0012

1916—1917 00071917—1918 00161918—1919 00201919—1920 00341920—1921 00451921—1922 00231922—1923 00331923—1924 00221924—1925 00221925—1926 00391926—1927 0044

1927—1928 00381928—1929 00611929—1930 00831930—1931 .0226 00581931—19321932—1933 .00821933—1934 .00821934—1935 . 00921935—1936 .0082.

.

Page 202: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A201

JANUARY 1857 TO JANUARY 1936

January79 80 81_— 82 83 — 84 85 86 $7 88 89 Dates

1857—18581858—18591859—18601860—18611861—18621862—18631863—18641864—1865

. 1865—18661866—13671867—18681868—18691869—18701870—18711871—18721872—18731873—18741874—187.51875—1876

0015 .0027 1876—18710027 .0032 1877—18780020 .0018 1878—18790206 .0024 0063 1879—18800382 .0102 0114 1880—1881

.0225 0317 .0152 0141 1881—1882

.0265 0452 .0151 0211 1882—1883

.0254 0393 .0125 0113 1883—1884

.0241 0387 .0084 0126 1884—1883

.0307 0480 .0081 0080 1885—1886

.0387 .0079 0517 .0121 0108 1886—1887

.0380 .0079 0577 .0114 0151 1887—1888

.0312 .0069 0389 .0067 0162 1888—1889

.0275 .0055 0339 .0&53 0158 1889—1890

.0270 .0048 0013 0252 .0037 0304 1890-1891

.0258 .0061 0016 0263 .0052 0339 1891—1892

.0208 .0049 0016 0315 .0065 .0012 .0295 1892—1893

.0193 .0047 0015 0250 .0049 .0008 .0277 1893—1894

.0091 .0036 0012 0103 .0057 .0007 .0208 1894—1895

.0102 .0038 0009 0040 .0058 .0007 .0255 1895—1896

.0102 .0042 0015 0127 .0053 .0007 .0202 1896—1897

.0091 .0040 0005 0103 .0063 .0006 .0229 1897—1898

.0128 .0038 0004 0105 .0056 .0006 .0243 1898—1899

.0135 .0047 0009 0134 .0045 .0010 .0215 1899-1900

.0124 .0040 0011 0118 .0033 .0011 .0249 1900—1901

.0317 .0061 0012 0240 .0024 .0049 .0017 .0248 1901—1902

.0316 .0066 0014 0315 .0023 .0057 .0017 .0249 1902—1903

.0304 .0055 0018 0313 .0037 .0057 .0016 .0269 1903—1904

.0294 .0033 0015 0282 .0023 .0045 .0010 .0264 1904—1905

.0259 .0038 0012 0277 .0028 .0063 .0013 .0260 1905—1906

.0189 .0040 0014 .0009 0225 .0024 .0057 .0009 .0216 1906—1907

.0168 .0036 0011 .0007 0257 .0021 .0059 .0010 .0202 1907—1908

.0107 .0024 0006 .0004 0228 .0021 .0049 .0008 .0181 1908—1909

.0131 .0035 0008 .0005 0361 .0028 .0061 .0008 .0167 1909—1910

.0116 .0035 0050 .0003 0397 .0024 .0059 .0010 .0183 1910-1911

.0086 .0024 0053 .0002 0374 .0021 .0045 .0010 .0185 1911—1912

.0071 .0017 0061 .0002 0387 .0017 .0038 .0010 .0193 1912—1913

.0070 .0017 0042 .0003 0413 .0016 .0035 .0012 .0203 1913—1914

.0050 .0015 0037 .0002 0420 .0017 .0030 .0009 .0219 1914—1915.0023 .0006 0019 .0001 0509 .0018 .0016 .0007 .02141915—1916.0010 .0011 0031 .0001 0510 .0019 .0009 .0007 .0203 1916—1917.0061 .0013 0030 .0016 .0017 .0528 .0017 .0013 .0011 .02141917—1918.0055 .0003 .0020 .0020 .0009 .0023 .0554 .0015 .0010 .0010 .0238 1918—1919.0057 .0005 .0023 .0016 .0008 .0031 .0570 .0015 .0010 .0008 .0232 1919—1920.0063 0035 .0016 .0013 .0026 .0562 .0014 .0018 .0006 .0236 1920—1921.0049 0039 .0016 .0010 .0028 .0572 .0018 .0005 .0014 .0221 1921—1922.0044 0023 .0013 .0007 .0023 .0685 .0022 .0020 .0011 .0233 1922—1923.0037 0022 .0015 .0008 .0030 .0634 .0017 .0040 .0014 .0260 1923—1924.0025 0020 .0014 .0008 .0035 .0642 .0016 .0027 .0016 .0289 1924—1925.0064 0038 .0018 .0012 .0048 .0619 .0024 .0057 .0018 .0285 1925—1926.0061 0042 .0015 .0019 .0067 .0601 .0027 .0065 .0021 .0305 1926—1927

.0060 .0030 .0020 .0070 .0683 .0023 .0049 .0018 .0271 1927—1928

.0060 .0029 .0033 .0062 .0673 .0026 .0045 .0018 .0237 1928—1929

.0070 .0026 .0029 .0054 .0610 .0035 .0052 .0023 .0219 1929—1930

.0124 .0090 .0079 .0045 .0362 .0045 .0121 .0026 .0175 1930—1931

.0101 .0073 .0064 .0037 .0295 .0037 .0098 .0021 .0142 1931—1932

.0101 .0070 .0065 0297 .0037 .0099 0143 1932—1933

.0101 .0070 .0063 0297 .0037 .0099 0143 1933—1934

.0101 .0070 .0065 0297 .0037 .0099 0143 1934—1935

.0101 .0070 0063 .. . .0297 .0037 .0099 1933—1936

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A202 APPENDIX

TABLE 15—RAILROAD COMMON STOCK WEIGHTSJanuary

Dates 90 91 92 93 94 93 96 97 98 99 100

1857—18581858—18591859—18601860—18611861—18621862—18631863—18641864—18651865—18661866—1867

1867—18681868—18691869—18701870—18711871—18721872—18731873—18741874—18751875—18761876—1877 .04131877—1878 .04591878—1879 .05361879—1880 .04341880—1881 .0067 .05421881—1882 .0040 .06171882—1883 .0049 .06241883—1884 .0033 .0508 0012 .03271884—1885 .0031 .0411 .0017 0011 .03301885—1886 .0026 .0324 .0024 0013 .02941886—1887 .0028 .0277 .0029 0017 .03721887—1888 .0045 .0283 .0036 0017 .03361888—1889 .0043 .0286 .0020 0016 .03181889—1890 .0048 .0333 .0057 0017 .02911890-1891 .0053 .0315 .0108 .0294 .0006 0032 .03801891—1892 .0054 .0234 0048 .0243 .0012 0021 .04091892—1893 .0063 .0206 0037 .0338 .0014 0017 .04201893—1894 .0062 .0175 0043 .0288 .0013 0013 .04061894—1895 .0063 .0103 0012 .0235 .0008 0005 .04201895—1896 .0057 0012 .0204 .0007 0003 .03291896—1897 .0029 0223 .0011 0004 .03101897—1898 .0043 0153 .0010 0002 .03121898—1899 .0106 0202 .0013 0002 .04541899—1900 .0264 0457 .0012 0028 .0342 .00031900—1901 .0264 0436 .0012 0017 .0358 .00041901—1902 .0444 0127 .0013 .0301 .00031902—1903 .0438 0158 .0013 .0294 .00051903—1904 .0394 .0460 0150 .0015 .0403 .00081904—1905 0138 .0531 0103 .0013 .0406 .00051905—1906 0165 .0671 0129 .0012 .0421 .00061906—1907 0165 .0712 OH! .0012 .0415 .0007

1907—1908 0145 .0829 0085 .0009 .0550 .00051908—1909 0105 .0745 0042 .0008 .0695 .00031909—1910 0116 .0873 0070 .0015 .0583 .00051910—1911 0150 .0843 0075 .0016 .0630 .00041911—1912 0145 .0798 0069 .0021 .0775 .00031912—1913 0196 .0766 0071 .0018 .0978 .00021913—1914 0179 .0697 0067 .0016 .1277 .00021914—1915 0181 .0782 0067 .0016 .1225 .00011915—1916 0177 .0676 0049 .0015 .1071 .00011916—1917 0170 .0668 0059 .0013 .1007 .0001

1917—1918 0180 .0732 0085 .0019 .09461918—1919 0181 .0745 0082 .0018 .10931919—1920 0182 .0783 0092 .0015 .11431920—1921 0185 .08231921—1922 0175 .08111922—1923 0184 .0894

0206 .08221924—1925 .... .0213 .07981925—1926 .... .0225 .07451926—1927 .... .0324 .0630

1927—1928 .0270 .06351928—1929 .0217 .06131929—1930 .0180 .06131930—1931 .0122 .03331931—1932 .0099 .02711932—1933 .0099 .02721933—1934 .0099 .02721934—1935 .0099 .02721935—1936 .0099 .0272 .0159

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RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A203

JANUARY 1857 TO JANUARY 1936

January101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 • Dates

1857—18581858—18591859—18601860—18611861—18621862—18631863—18641864—18651865—18661866—1867

1867—18681868—18691869—18701870—18711871—18721872—18731873—18741874—18731875—18761876—1877

1877—18781878—18791879—18801880-18811881—1882

0040 .0007 .0011 1882—18830029 .0004 .0014 1883—18840019 .0003 .0009 1884—18850026 .0004 .0007 1885—18860023 .0006 .0011 1886—18870029 .0006 .0009 1887—18880035 .0004 .0004 1888—18890024 .0004 .0003 1889—1890

0005 .0003 1890—18910005 .0003 .0005 .0012 1891—18920006 .0004 .0008 .0011 1892—1893

0008 .0006 .0006 1893—18940006 .0005 .0004 1894—18950007 .0004 .0004 1895—18960010 .0006 .0002 1896—1897

0012 0010 .0005 .0082 .0009 1897—18980016 0012 .0006 .0079 .0023 1898—18990019 0015 .0006 .0074 .0023 1899—1900

.0013 0016 0021 .0006 .0093 .0016 1900-1901

.0014 0037 0022 .0011 .0147 .0021 1901—1902

.0022 0065 0026 .0013 .0146 .0026 1902—1903

.0037 0023 .0013 .0170 .0028 1903—1904.0035 0016 .0007 .0155 .0020 1904—1905.0041 0011 .0008 .0159 .0032 1905—1906.0050 0012 .0006 .0136 .0023 1906—1907

.0042 ... .0008 .0005 .0137 .0018 1907—1908

.0045 0005 .0003 .0134 .0009 .1908—1909.0053 ... .0008 .0006 .0131 .0009 1909—1910.0057 0006 .0004 .0136 .0030 1910—1911.0060 0004 .0003 .0184 .0022 1911—1912.0070 0015 .0229 .0018 1912—1913.0071 0010 0234 .0015 .0014 1913—1914.0072 0003 0245 .0013 .0015 1914—1915.0071 0002 0295 .0013 .0013 1915—1916.0068 0003 0313 .0014 .0015 1916—1917

.0067 0034 .0028 0369 .0014 .0014 .• 1917—1918

.0063 0017 .0018 0368 .0010 .0009 1918—1919

.0062 0016 .0017 0356 .0010 .0008 .0002 1919—19200040 .0027 0355 .0012 .0008 .0003 1920—19210025 .0035 0371 .0012 .0007 .0003 1921—19220028 .0034 0390 .0009 .0004 .0002 1922—19230045 .0031 0389 .0006 .0006 .0004 1923—19240053 .0026 0391 .0006 .0007 .0005 1924—19250069 .0060 0394 .0010 .0018 .0006 1925—19260073 .0096 0408 .0010 .0034 .0007 1926—1927

.0094 .0092 0392 .0008 .0024 .0008 1927—1928

.0083 .0107 0381 .0008 .0015 .0009 1928—1929

.0090 .0097 0349 .0012 .0009 .0007 1929—1930

.0067 .0098 0211 .0068 .0390 .0020 1930—1931

.0055 .0080 - .0171 .0053 .0317 .0016 1931—1932

.0055 .0080 0172 .0055 .0318 1932—1933

.0055 .0080 0172 .0055 .0318 1933—1934

.0055 .0080 0172 .0055 .0318 1934—1935

.0055 .0080 0172 .0055 .0318 1935—1936

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A204 . APPENDIX

TABLE 16

FOUR INDEX NUMBERS OF THE JANUARY PRICES OFAMERICAN RAILROAD COMMON STOCKS1

Column 1. IJnweighted geometric average index number (one shareeach stock).

Column 2. Arithmetic average index number weighted according to thenumber of shares of each company outstanding at thebeginning of each year.

Column 3. Index based on arithmetic average price of one share of eachstock.

Column 4. Unweighted chain arithmetic average of relative prices.

Date 1 2 3 4

Jan 1857 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.001858 68.06 73.94 75.00 73.281859 70.09 75.07 75.08 78.231860 59.53 71.21 73.24 70.671861 76.49 80.54 83.23 99.381862 75.83 77.95 81.39 100.371863 132.42 125.35 129.07 183.571864 177.49 159.57 164.30 253.57

" 1865 167.96 155,18 160.14 243.67" 1866 155.97 142.32 148.72 228.35" 1867 165.17 148.49 159.35 243.05" 1868 180.52 162.58 176.04 270.02" 1869 200.81 180.16 194.73 304.79

1870 194.31 179.41 193.61 298.13" 1871 202.56 187.09 199.44 312.68

1872 212.27 199.29 206.95 332.20" 1873 215.40 208.53 207.67 340.33" 1874 189.57 190.20 186.34 301.93

1875 173.84 185.72 180.27 283.73" 1876 147.96 180.44 169.57 253.92" 1877 109.76 142.74 136.82 200.82" 1878 99.38 131.20 . 127.00 193.11" 1879 128.29 146.80 148.88 286.29" 1880 247.25 213.29 219.49 654.94" 1881 303.27 265.69 278.67 816.02" 1882 292.75 250.33 269.73 801.12" 1883 286.02 246.70 271.09 799.10

1884 231.23 220.26 245.93 668.81" 1885 174.27 179.64 205.91 525.90" 1886 243.89 219.79 254.95 761.03" 1887 283.93 236.15 281.23 910.12" 1888 247.77 223.00 262.30 816.21" 1889 238.01 212.96 255.11 804.64" 1890 254.69 221.16 274.92 884.91

'These indexes have been so adjusted (by multiplication) that January 1857 is, in each case, 100. Inconstructing these indexes all adjustments were made for rights, stock dividends, etc. For further detailsconcerning the construction of these indexes see Ch. V.

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RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A205

TABLE 16—(Concluded)

FOUR INDEX NUMBERS OF THE JANUARY PRICES OFAMERICAN RAILROAD COMMON STOCKS

Date

Jail 1891" 1892" 1893" 1894" 1895" 1896" 1897" 1898" 1899" 1900" 1901" 1902" 1903" 1904" 1905" 1906" 1907" 1908" 1909" 1910" 1911" 1912" 1913" 1914" 1915" 1916" 1917" 1918" 1919" 1920" 1921" 1922" 1923" 1924" 1925" 1926" 1927" 1928" 1929" 1930

1931" 1932" 1933" 1934" 1935" 1936

254.87288. 10289.54227.32222.92225.64220. 53251.44311.90323.80389.94483.54533. 93428.12338.66629.23596.73435.46592.17647.84581.15570.13565.65493. 29421.17479.07485.94354. 79375.64353.04354.07348.64406. 63393.77544.49666.61715.02848.00959.42886.98603.35197.36151.04254.63190.89240.73

789.77993.12969. 17676.03617.02618.02577.17700.16937. 13960. .51

1,337.521,866.382, 162 221,616.592,161.232,534.542,323.811,530.032,542.732,710.192,322.202,146.842,099.421,739.001,327.701,585.991,835.691,233.101,329.841,363.951,381.661,227.161,527. 921,548.462,533.963,291. 553,523.714,349.815,162.394,575 .942,784.01

912.33666.07

1,419.91906.56

1,150.27

1 2 3 4

221.99272.84258. 10170.09151.75147.58132.89153.41198. 15199.62267.82364.69416.11305.92403.84467.11424.45271.52427.49438.86369.15335.59324.64262.61.186.16209.67232.51150.85160.09159.15154.88132.27160.05157.25243.88308.91326.54395.45459.53398.10228.01

65.5543.3686.7854.4565 .78

199.43229. 12224.79175.82170.88172.57170.08196.61241.52246.47301.27367.30396.94319.75405.51470.50462.58347.36450.14483.46444. 16439.21439.30392.93345.10389.40383.22293.92310.27285.53281.67275.02318.38304.05380.73427.24463.52540.95615.13585 .20427 .38150,85118.47196.42152.64195 .00

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A206 APPENDIX

TABLE 17

Ax ARITHMETIC AVERAGE INDEX NUMBER OF THE PRICES OF AMERICANRAILROAD COMMON STOCKS, WEIGHTED ACCORDING TO THE

NUMBER OF SHARES OF EACH COMPANY OUTSTANDINGAT THE BEGINNING OF EACH YEAR

MONTHLY, JANUARY 1857-JANuARY 1936

Col. 1. Logarithms of Index (see Table 10—Column 6).Cal. 2. Cyclical Curve (logarithms).Col. 3. Trend Curve (logarithms).Col. 4. Deviations of Cyclical Curve (logarithms) from Trend

Curve (logarithms).

For details of the nature of the graduations given in columns 2 and3 of this table see Appendix D.

Page 208: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD STOCK PRICES

TABLE 17

AMERICAN RAILROAD STOCK PRICES

A207

1 2 Date 2 4

18623FMAMJJAS0ND

1.2191 .2341.2471.2431.2631 .2841.2741 .2891.3191.3601.3631.372

1. 21261. 22231. 23351.24621. 26041.27601. 29 261. 3 1021.32851. 347 .11.36571. 3840

11

1

111

11

1

I11

.2904

.2982

.3061

.3 138

.3221

.3300

.3383

.3466

.3548

.3628

.3712

.3794

—.0778—.0759—.0726—. 0676—.0617—.0540—.0457—.0364—. 0263—.0157—.0055+.0046

1.4251 . 4401.4321.4371.4771.4631.4731 .5021.5031.5141,5161.512

1. 40171.41821.43351.44761. 46031.47211.48311.49371.50401.51441.32471.5350

1.38731.39511 . 40311.41071.41801. 42531.43221.43901.44581.45201.45841.4642

Date1857

JFMA'M33AS0ND

1858

MAM33.AS0ND

1839I?M

M33AS0ND

1860JFMAM3JAS0ND

1861JFMAM33AS0ND

1.3271.3191.3181 .3101.3031.2761.2701.2481 . 1801 . 1081.1661.184

1.1961.2351.2421.2191.2261.2071.2091.2041 .1981.2111.2081 .201

1 . 2021.1971.1951.1841.1701.1731.1761.1791. 1961.1881.1921 . 188

1. 1791.1821 .2001.2221 .2301 .2361.2491.2741.2851.2 701.2191.190

1.2331 .2311.2411.2071.1721.1761. 1941.1851.1841.2001.2061.193

3

1.27811.27461.27111 .26781 .26421.26091.25751. 25421.25101.24781.24451 .2413

1. 23821 .23491. 23171. 22861.22571.22231.21921. 2 1611.21331.21011. 20711.2044

1. 20161.19891. 19621.19401.19191.18971.18801. 18651.1854

.18441.18381. 1835

1. 18351.18391.18461.18571.18731.18911.19141.19411.19721. 20061.20441. 2087

1. 21321.21811.22321 .22881. 23481. 24091.24741. 25411 . 26091. 26791.27531.2827

1.32251.31291.30081.28701.27221. 25 711 .24271.22941. 21761.20791.20071. 1961

1. 19421.19521. 19831.20281 .20791.21231. 2 1521. 21601.21471. 21151. 20701. 2019

1.19691.19241.18851. 185 11.18221.17971.17781.17681.17721. 17921.18321. 1890

1. 19641. 20501.21401.22301.23141.23861.24421.24791.24921.24801. 2 4441.2384

1.23061.22171 .21251.20401.19681.19161.18861.18791.18931.19271.19771. 2044

4

+ .0444+.0383+.0297+.0192+.0080—.0038—.0148—.0248—.0334—.0399—.0438—.0452

— .0440—.0397— .0334—.0258—.0178—.0100—.0040—.0001+ .0014+.0014—.000.1—.0025

—.0047—.0065—.0077—.0089—.0097—.0100—.0102—.0097—.0082—.0052—.0006+ .0055

+ .0129+ .0211+.0294+ .0373+ .0441+.0495+ .0528+ .0538+.0520+.0474+ .0400+.0297

+ .0174+.0036—.0107—.0248—.0380—.0493—.0588—.0662—.0716—.0752—.0776—.0783

+.0144+.0231+ . 0304+.0369+0423+ .0468+.0509+,0547+.0582+0624+ .0663+.0708

+ . 0751+ .0787+ .0812+0826+ .0814+0781+0717+.0624-I- . 0507+0374+ .0228+ .0085

18633FMAMJJAS0ND

1864JFMAMJJAS0NP

1865

MAM3JAS0ND

1.5301.5501.5801.5871.5681.5761.5721.5751 .5491.5201.5431.539

1.54481.55381. 56 141.56721.57061.57121.56861.56281.55441.54381.53201.5198

1 .46971.47511 . 48021.48461.48921.49311 .49691.50041.50371.50641.50921.5113

1.5181.5071 , 4651.4591.468I . 4601.4781.4731.4911.5031.5071.300

1.50841.49831.49001.48371.47931. 47 .551.47511. 47471. 47531. 4 7671. 47881. 4815

1.51321.51511 . 51641.51731.51801.51851.51881.51891.51901.51881 . 51851.3182

—.0048—.0168—.0264— .0336—.0387—.0420—.0437—.0442—.0437—.0421—.0397—.0367

18663FMAM3JAS0ND

1 .4801.4691.4701.4781.4861.4921 .5001.5161.5181.5311.5241.516

1. 48481. 48831. 49181. 49501. 49791.30031.50241 .504.11.50551.50641.5069

1.51761.51721.5 1671.5 1611.51551.51501.51471.51441.51431.51431 .5145

—.0328—.0289—.0249—.0211—.0.176—.0147—.0123—.0103—.0088—.0079—.0076

1.5068 1.5148 —.0080

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Page 210: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A209

TABLE 17—Continued

AMERICAN RAILROAD STOCK PRICES

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1877 18823 1.481 1.4528 1.4823 —.0295 J 1.725 1.7262 1.7294 —.0032F 1.453 1.4397 1.4797 —.0400 F 1.715 1.7228 1.7294 —.0066M 1.432 .1.4290 1.4774 —.0484 M 1.713 1.7206 1.7290 —.0084A 1.399 1.4209 1.4734 —.0545 A 1.713 1.7196 1.7284 —.0088M 1.398 1.4155 1.4737 —.0582 M 1.707 1.7194 1.7272 —.0078J 1.373 1.4125 1.4723 —.0598 J 1.105 1.7200 1.7259 —.0059j 1.387 1.4120 1.4714 —.0394 J 1.730 1.721! 1.7241 —.0030A 1.414 1.4137 1.4709 —.0572 A 1.743 1.7224 1.7222 +.0002S 1.442 1.4174 1.4707 —.0533 S 1.747 1.7238 1.7199 +.00390 1.455 1.4227 1.4709 —.0482 0 1.136 1.7249 1.7175 +.0074N 1.447 1.4292 1.4716 —.0424 N 1.718 1.7254 1.7148 +.0106D 1.445 1.4364 1.4726 —.0362 D 1.720 1.7251 1.7119 +.0132

1878 1883J 1.445 1.4435 1.4739 —.0304 3 1.719 1.7241 1.7087 +.0154F 1.436 1.4500 1.4757 —.0257 F 1.708 1.7222 1.7056 +.0166M 1.443 1.4536 1.4780 —.0224 M 1.714 1.7197 1.1022 +.0175A 1.457 1.4599 1.4806 —.0207 A 1.724 1.7168 1.6990 +.0178l\'i 1.457 1.4632 1.4836 —.0204 lv! 1.715 1.7137 1.6955 +.01823 1.468 1.4657 1.4869 —.0212 3 1.719 1.7105 1.6922 +.01833 1.476 1.4677 1.4907 —.0230 3 1.711 1.7071 1.6888 +.0183A 1.471 1.4698 1.4949 —.0251 A 1.691 1.1034 1.6854 +.0180S 1.480 1,4722 1.4997 —.0275 S 1.697 1.6993 1.6820 +.0173O 1.476 1.4751 1.5044 —.0293 0 1.685 1.6944 1.6789 +.0155N 1.474 1.4788 1.5099 —.0311 N 1.691 1.6887 1.6757 +.0130D 1.473 1.4835 1.5154 —.0319 D 1.682 1.6820 1.6727 +.0093

1879 18843 1.493 1.4895 1.5215 —.0320 3 1.670 1.6744 1.6696 +.0048F 1.510 1.4970 1.5277 —.0307 F 1.681 1.6661 1.6670 —.0009lv! 1.501 1.5063 1.5343 —.0280 M 1.680 1.6573 1.6644 —.0071A 1.514 1.5176 1.5410 —.0234 A 1.663 1.6482 1.6619 —.0137lvi 1.536 1.5307 1.5481 —.0174 lvi 1.626 1.6391 1.6594 —.02033 1.542 1.5454 1.5554 —.0100 3 1.593 1.6299 1.6574 —.02751 1.550 1.5611 1.5628 —.0017 J 1.605 1.6209 1.65E5 —.0346A 1.556 1.5769 1.5704 A 1.631 1.6123 1.6537 —.0414S 1.571 1.5921 1.5781 +.0140 S 1.615 1.6043 1.6521 —.0478o 1.615 1.6059 1.5863 +.0196 0 1.600 1.5972 1.6508 —.0536N 1.636 1.6179 1.5942 +.0231 N 1.590 1.3914 1.6497 —.0583D 1.638 1.6279 1.6021 +.0258 D 1.591 1.3873 1.6485 —.0612

1880 18853 1.656 1.6360 1.6100 +.0260 3 1.581 1.5851 1.6479 —.0628F 1.665 1.6425 1.6178 +.0247 F 1.593 1.5851 1.6474 —.0623M 1.672 1.6478 1.6257 +.0221 lvi 1,594 1.5872 1.6470 —.0598A 1.666 1.6525 1.6336 +.0189 A 1.594 1.5913 1.6467 —.0554Iv! 1.629 1.6571 1.6416 +.0155 lvi i.ssi 1.5970 1.6466 —.04963 1.630 1.6621 1.6493 +.0128 J 1.584 1.6040 1.6467 —.04273 1.649 1.6679 1.6368 +.0111 3 1.602 1.6119 1.6469 —.0350A 1.668 1.6750 1.6640 +.0110 A 1.624 1.6202 1.6473 —.0271S 1.667 1.6835 1.6709 +.0126 S 1.619 1.6286 1.6478 —.0192O 1.683 1.6934 1.6714 +.0160 0 1.642 1.6369 1.6484 —.0115N 1.709 1.7045 1.6838 +.0207 N 1.668 1.6449 1.6491 —.0042D 1.730 1.7164 1.6897 +.0267 D 1.667 1.6523 1.6499 +.0024

1881 18863 1.751 1.7284 1.6953 +.0329 J 1,669 1.6589 1.6507 +.0082F 1.746 1.7395 1.7006 +.0389 F 1.676 1.6647 1.6518 +.0129M 1,752 1.7490 1.7054 +.0436 M 1.668 1.6697 1.6528 +.0169A 1.750 1.7560 1.7097 +.0463 A 1.662 1.6739 1.6339 +.0200M 1.767 1.7601 1.7139 +.0462 lvi 1.654 1.6775 1.6550 +.02253 1.771 1.7611 1.7173 +.0438 3 1.673 1.6809 1.6563 +.02463 1.754 1.7592 1.7203 +.0389 3 1.680 1.6843 1.6576 +.0267A 1.746 1.7530 1.7230 +.0320 A 1.684 1.6880 1.6589 +.0291S 1.749 1.7493 1.7252 +.0241 S 1.694 1.6920 1.6601 +.03!90 1.742 1.7428 1.7269 +.0159 0 1.706 1.6963 1.6615 +.0348N 1.743 1.7363 1.7281 +.0084 N 1.715 1.7006 1.6628 +.0378D 1.733 1.7308 1.7288 +.0020 D 1.705 1.7047 1.6642 +.0405

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A210 APPENDIX

TABLE 17 —Continued

AMERICAN RAILROAD STocK PRICES

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1887 1892

3 1.700 1.7080 1.6637 +.0423 3 1.687 1.6813 1.6540 -j-.0273

F 1.696 1.7102 1.6670 +.0432 F 1.686 1.6848 1.6528 +.0320M 1.706 1.7111 1.6684 +.0427 M 1.691 1.6875 1.6517 +.0358A 1.718 1.7103 1.6696 +.0407 A 1.689 1.6894 1.6504 +.0390M 1.725 1.7081 1.6708 +.0373 M 1.687 1.6906 1.6486 +.0420J 1.714 1.7045 1.6720 +.0325 J 1.684 1.6912 1.6472 +.04403 1.702 1.6999 1.6730 +.0269 3 1.684 1.6911 1.6434 +.0457A 1.691 1.6945 1.6739 +.0206 A 1.687 1.6900 1.6436 +.0464S 1.685 1.6887 1.6746 +.0141 S 1.673 1.6876 1.6419 +.04570 1.668 1.6828 1.6754 +.0074 0 1.681 1.6838 1.6399 +.0449N 1.674 1.6772 1.6759 +.0013 N 1.676 1.6783 1.6379 +.0404ID 1.673 1.6722 1,6762 —.0040 D 1.671 1.6713 1.6359 +.0354

1888 1893J 1.673 1.6679 1,6763 —.0084 J 1.679 1.6628 1.6339 +.0289F 1.671 1.6645 1.6764 -'--.0119 F 1.669 1.6530 1.6316 +.0214M 1.655 1.6621 1.6763 —.0142 M 1.654 1.6423 1.6295 +.0128A 1.656 1.6605 1.6761 —.0156 A 1.657 1.6313 1.6274 +.0039M 1.662 1.6595 1.6758 —.0163 M 1.625 1.6203 1.6249 —.0046

3 1.644 1.6.590 1.6753 —.0163 J 1.604 1.6097 1.6226 —.0129

3 1.657 1.6586 1,6747 —.0161 J 1.563 1.6000 1.6203 —.0203A 1.663 1.6583 1,6742 —.0159 A 1.554 1.5915 1.6179 —.0264S 1.675 1.6578 1.6734 —.0156 S 1.578 1.5847 1.6151 —.0304O 1.670 1.6573 1.6727 —.0154 0 1.585 1.5796 1.6128 —.0332N 1.657 1.6567 1.6719 —.0152 N 1.594 1.5765 1.6103 —.0338ID 1.649 1.6561 1.6711 —.0150 D 1.581 1.5751 1.6077 —.0326

1889 18943 1.655 1.6555 1.6702 —.0147 3 1.572 1.5752 1.6051 —.0299F 1.659 1.6550 1.6695 —.0145 F 1.577 1.5761 1.6026 —.0265M 1.647 1.6546 1.6687 —.0141 1.590 1.5773 1.6001 —.0228A 1.644 1 6544 1.6678 —.0134 A 1.594 1.5780 1.5976 —.0196M 1.655 1.6545 1.6670 —.0125 XI 1.576 1.5778 1.5949 —.0171

3 1.660 1 6551 1.6664 —.0113 J 1.568 1.5764 1.5923 —.0159

3 1.649 1.6565 1.6658 —.0093 3 1.550 1.5740 1.5898 —.0158A 1.659 1.6586 1.6652 —.0066 A 1.576 1.5712 1.5873 —.0161S 1.674 1.6616 1.6646 —.0030 S 1.586 1.5684 1.5849 —.01650 1.670 1.6653 1.6642 +.0011 0 1.572 1.5663 1.5824 —.0161N 1.669 1.6692 1.6638 +.00S4 N 1.571 1.5654 1.5801 —.0147D 1.667 1.6730 1.6636 +.0094 D 1.563 1.5660 1.57'79 —.0119

1890 1895J 1.671 1.6761 1.6632 +.0129 j 1.559 1.5681 1,5756 —.0075F' 1.667 1.6781 1.6630 +.0151 F 1.553 1.5714 1.5736 —.0022lvi 1.664 1.6787 1,6629 +.0158 M 1.550 1.5757 1.5716 +.0041A 1.673 1.6778 1.6627 +.0151 A 1.557 1.5805 1.5697 +.0108M 1,690 1.6752 1.6626 +.0126 M 1.590 1.5854 1.3679 +.01753 1.687 1.6712 1.6625 +.0087 3 1.600 1.5900 1.5663 +.0237J 1.683 1.6659 1.6625 +.0034 3 1.607 1.5940 1.5649 +.0291A 1.672 1.6507 1.6624 —.0027 A 1.613 1.5968 1.5638 +.0330S 1.663 1.6528 1.6624 —.0096 S 1.617 1.3983 1.5627 +.0356O 1.643 1.6456 1.6623 —.0167 0 1.611 1.5981 1.5618 +.0363N 1.614 1.6387 1.6622 —.0235 N 1.597 1.5961 1.5614 +.0347D 1.607 1.6325 1.6620 —.0293 D 1.570 1.5923 1,5612 +.0311

1891 1896J 1.627 1.6275 1.6618 —.0343 J 1.364 1.5872 1.5611 +.0261F 1.631 1.6243 1.6616 —.0373 F 1.581 1.5810 1.5613 +,0197M 1.621 1.6233 1.6613 —.0380 M 1.572 1.5744 1.5618 +.0126A 1.637 1.6245 1.6609 —.0364 A 1.576 1.5679 1.5626 +.0053M 1.636 1.6281 1.6604 —.0323 M 1.574 1.5618 1.5634 —.0016J 1.626 1.6336 1.6600 —.0264 3 1.568 1.5564 1.5646 —.00823 1.621 1.6406 1.6595 —.0189 3 1.543 1.5520 1.5659 —.0139A 1.639 L6485 1.6587 —.0102 A 1.519 1.5484 1.5674 —.0190S 1.676 1.6566 1.6579 —.0013 S 1.538 1.5458 1.5690 —.02320 1.676 1.6642 1.6571 +.0071 0 1.547 1.5442 1.5708 —.0266N 1.667 1.6711 1.6562 +.0149 N 1.570 1.5438 1.5728 —.0290D 1.682 1.6768 1.6552 +.0216 D 1.558 1.5449 1.5749 —.0300

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RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A211

TABLE 17—Continued

AMERICAN RAILROAD S'rocK PRICES

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1897 1902J 1.557 1.5473 1.5771 —.0298 J 1.892 1.8941 1.8536 +.0405F 1.552 1.5512 1.5795 —.0283 F 1.895 1.8987 1.8560 +.0427M 1.554 1.5563 1.5819 —.0256 M 1.896 1.9041 1.8583 +.0458A 1.540 1.5624 1.5844 —.0220 A 1.912 1.9101 1.8604 +.0497M 1.542 1.5690 1.5870 —.0180 M 1.914 1.9163 1.8622 +.0541

1.562 1.5759 1.5898 —.0139 J 1.915 1.9221 1.8643 +.0578J 1.578 1.5826 1.5926 —.0100 J 1.931 1.9271 1.8661 +.0610A 1.606 1.5889 1.5956 —.0067 A 1.944 1.9304 1.8678 +.0626S 1.625 1.5946 1.5985 —.0039 S 1.945 1.9316 1.8697 +.06190 1.614 1.5994 1.6017 —.0023 0 1.930 1.9308 1.8714 +.0594N 1.599 16035 1.6050 —.0015 N 1.913 1.9272 1.8731 +.0541D 1.610 1.6067 1.6084 —.0017 D 1.905 1.9210 1.8749 +.0461

1898 1903J 1.620 1.6091 1.6117 —.0026 J 1.925 1.9125 1.8768 +.0357F 1.618 1,6111 1.6153 —.0042 F 1.918 1.9022 1.8785 +.0237M 1.598 1.6130 1.6190 —.0060 M 1.898 1.8907 1.8804A 1.589 1.6153 1.6229 —.0076 A 1.878 1.8785 1.8824 —.0039M 1,614 1.6186 1.6270 —.0084 M 1.871 1.8663 1.8844 —.0181

J 1.630 16233 1.6314 —.0081 J 1.847 1.8544 1,8864 —.0320J 1.630 1.6297 1.6358 —.0061 J 1,835 1.8433 1.8884 —.0451A 1.648 1.6379 1.6405 —.0026 A 1.822 1.8333 1.8904 —.0571S 1.650 1.6478 1.6452 +.0026 S 1.816 1.8247 1.8925 —.06780 1.641 1.6589 1.6502 +.0087 0 1.807 1.8176 1.8945 —.0769N 1,651 1.6705 1.6555 +.0150 N 1.809 1.8123 1.8965 —.0842D 1.674 1,6820 1.6609 +.0211 D 1.825 1.8091. 1.8986 —.0895

1899 1904J 1.710 1.6928 1.6664 +.0264 J 1.832 1.8082 1.9007 —.0925F 1.726 1.7026 1.6721 +.0305 F 1.818 1.8098 1.9027 —.0929M 1.725 1.7110 1.6781 +.0329 M 1.818 1.8139 1.9046 —.0907.A 1.731 1.7180 1.6842 +,0338 A 1.829 1.8205 1.9065 —.0860M 1.715 1.7236 1.6904 +0332 M 1.818 1.8292 1.9083 —.0791J 1.709 1.7278 1.6969 +.0309 J 1.820 1.8397 1.9101 —.0704J 1.725 1,7309 1.7034 +,0275 J 1.839 1.8515 1.9117 —.0602A 1.735 1.7326 1.7100 +.0226 A 1.854 1.8642 1.9134 —.0492S 1.730 1.7332 1.7166 +.0166 S 1.873 1.8774 1.9148 —.0374o 1.728 1.7327 1.7232 +,0095 0 1.897 1.8907 1.9163 —.0256N 1.737 1.7311 1.73C0 +0011 N 1.915 1.9038 1.9177 —.0139D 1.714 1.7286 17368 —.0082 D 1.922 1.9166 1.9191 —.0025

1900 19053 1.719 1.7257 1.7436 —.0179 J 1.935 1.9287 1.9204 +.0083F 1.728 1.7226 1.7502 —.0276 F 1.956 1.9398 1.9217 +.0181M 1.739 1.7200 1.7568 —.0368 M 1.969 1.9498 1.9230 +.0268A 1.747 1.7183 1.7633 —.0450 A 1.962 1.9584 1.9243 +.0341M 1.729 1.7182 1.7695 —.0513 M 1.940 1.9654 1.9253 +.0401J 1.718 1.7200 1.7734 —.0554 J 1.948 1.9708 1.9265 +.04435 1.716 1.7242 1.7814 —.0572 5 1.962 1.9746 1.9276 +.0470A 1.720 1.7309 1.7872 —.0563 A 1.980 1.9772 1.9287 +.0485S 1.712 1.7402 1.7930 —.0528 S 1.984 1.9787 1.9300 +.0487o 1.727 1.7317 1.7984 —.0467 0 1.988 1.9798 1.9311 +.0487N 1.755 1.7653 1.8036 —.0383 N 1.983 1.9808 1.9324 +.0484D 1.786 1.7803 1.8086 —.0283 D 1.987 1.9821 1.9336 +.0485

1901 1906

J 1.806 1.7962 1.8131 —.0169 J 1.999 1.9840 1.9350 +.0490F 1.820 1.8122 L817.7 —.0055 F 1.997 1.9863 1.9362 +.0503M 1.834 1.8276 1.8218 +.0058 M 1.989 1.9894 1.9375 +.0519A 1.871 1.8416 1.8258 +.0158 A 1.983 1.9924 1.9387 +.0537M 1.854 1.8338 1.8297 +.0241 M 1.972 1.9954 1.9400 +.05543 1.894 1.8639 1.8332 +.0307 J 1.980 1.9978 1.9412 +.05663 1.858 1.8717 1.8366 +.0351 J 1.972 1.9995 1.9423 +.0572A 1.869 1.8774 1.8398 +.0376 A 2.004 2.0002 1.9434 +.0568S 1.872 1.8815 1.8430 +.0385 S 2.017 1.9997 1.9448 +.05490 1.874 1.8846 1.8458 +.0388 0 2.012 1.9978 1.9456 +.0522N 1.891 1.8874 1.8486 +.0388 N 2.011 1.9943 1.9467 +.0476D 1.885 1.8904 1.8512 +.0392 D 2.007 1.9889 1.9477 +.0412

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A212 APPENDIX

TABLE 17—Continued

AMERICAN RAILROAD STOCK PRICES

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1907 1912J 1.992 1.9812 1.9486 +.0326 J 1.969 1.9700 1.9755 —.0055F 1.975 1.9712 .1.9494 +.0218 F 1.965 1.9718 1.9732 —.0014M 1.930 1.9590 1.9500 +.0090 M 1.974 1.9744 1.9707 +.0037A 1.932 1.9448 1.9506 —.0058 A 1.984 1.9773 1.9684 +.0089M 1.918 1.9294 1.9511 —.0217 M 1.981 1.9804 1.9653 +.0151J 1.907 1.9137 1.9515 —.0378 J 1,979 1.9830 1.9628 +.0202J 1.923 1.8986 1.9518 —.0532 J 1.979 1.9847 1.9599 +.0248A 1.897 1.8832 1.9520 —.0668 A 1.990 1.9852 1.9573 +.0279S 1.898 1.8743 1.9521 —.0778 S 1.990 1.9843 1.9542 +.03010 1.858 1.8663 1.9521 —.0858 0 1.987 1.9818 1.9516 +.0302N 1.832 1.8615 1.9521 —.0906 N 1.984 1.9774 1.9489 +.0285D 1.851 1.8599 1.9521 —.0922 D 1.972 1.9724 1.9463 +.0261

1908 1913J 1.868 1.8613 1.9521 —.0908 J 1.970 1.9660 1.9436 +.0224F 1.851 1.8633 1.9521 —.0868 F 1.958 1.9590 1.9413 +.0177

1.863 1.8716 1.9521 —.0805 1.949 1.9518 1.9390 +.0128A 1.883 1.8799 1.9522 —.0723 A 1,948 1.9448 1.9367 +.0081M 1.907 1.8897 1.9522 —.0625 M 1.936 1.9383 1.9345 +.0038J 1.908 1.9003 1.9526 —.0523 J 1.915 1.9327 1.9323 +.0002J 1.920 1.9123 1.9528 —.0405 J 1.921 1.9280 1.9305 —.0025A 1.934 1.9242 1.9532 —.0290 A 1.928 1.9244 1.9286 —.0042S 1.931 1.9358 1.9533 —.0175 S 1.929 1.9216 1.9269 —.0053o 1.937 1.9470 1.9540 —.0070 0 1,919 1.9195 1.9253 —.0058N 1.963 1.9577 1.9546 +.0031 N 1.909 1.9178 1.9237 —.0059D 1.974 1.9669 1.9554 +.0115 D 1.908 1.9160 1.9221 —.0061

1909 1914J 1.980 1.9757 1.9562 +.0195 J 1.921 1.9138 1.9206 —.0068F 1.971 1.9834 1.9573 +.0261 F 1.924 1.9109 1.9191 —.0082M 1.978 1.9909 1.9584 +.0325 M 1.912 1.9073 1.9177 —.0104A 1.994 1.9978 1.9596 +.0382 A 1.902 1.9030 1.9162 —.0132M 2.004 2.0041 1.9608 +.0433 M 1.905 1.8979 1.9148 —.0169j 2.009 2,0097 1.9621 +.0476 J 1.902 1.8924 1.9134 —.0210J 2.017 2.0147 1.9635 +.0512 J 1.879 1.8863 1.9120 —.0253A 2.025 2.0179 1.9650 +.0529 A 1.875* 1.8805 1.9106 —.0301S 2.022 2.0201 1.9667 +.0534 S 1.871* 1.8749 1.9091 —.0342o 2.021 2.0198 1.9684 +.0514 0 1.867* 1.8697 1.9078 —.0381N 2.013 2.0180 1.9701 +.0479 N 1.862* 1.8653 1.9064 —.0411D 2.019 2.0149 1.9717 +.0432 D 1.858 1.8626 1.9048 —.0422

1910 1915J 2.011 2.0095 1.9733 +.0362 3 1.863 1.8612 1.9031 —.0419F 1.997 2,0030 1.9751 +.0279 F 1.857 1.8615 1.9018 —.0403M 2.007 .1.9965 1.9767 +.0198 M 1.865 1.8635 1.9003 —.0368A 1.999 1.9896 1.9782 +.0114 A 1.887 1.8671 1.8988 —.0317lvi 1.993 1.9830 1.9797 +.0033 M 1.876 1.8717 1.8972 —.0255J 1.971 1.9773 1.9811 —.0038 3 1.872 1.8771 1.8939 —.01883 1.949 1.9728 1.9824 —.0096 3 1.862 1.8828 1.8945 —.0117A 1.958 1.9696 1.9837 —.0141 A 1.875 1.8884 1.8931 —.0047S 1.960 1.9679 1.9849 —.0170 S 1.886 1.8936 1.8916 +.00200 1.978 1.9676 1.9858 —.0182 0 1.909 1.8984 1.8904 +.0080N 1.974 1.9683 1.9867 —.0184 N 1.928 1.9027 1.8891 +.0136D 1.963 1.9699 1.9874 —.0175 D 1.925 1.9065 1.8878 +.0187

1911 19163 1.974 1.9718 1.9879 —.0161 3 1.917 1.9101 1.8865 +.0236F 1.980 1.9737 1.9881 —.0144 F 1.907 1.9132 1.8854 +.0278M 1.975 1.9752 1.9881 . —.0129 M 1.905 1.9157 1.8842 +.0315A 1.975 1.9762 1.9878 —.0116 A 1.902 1.9177 1.8829 +.0348M 1.982 1.9764 1.9875 —.0111 M 1.914 1.9191 1.8816 +.0375J 1.992 1.9758 1.9867 —.0109 3 1.920 1.9198 1.8804 +.03943 1.992 1.9746 1.9854 —.0108 J 1.916 1.9199 1.8791 +.0408A 1.972 1.9731 L9839 —.0108 A 1.913 1.9195 1.8778 +.0417S 1.949 1.9714 1.9822 —.0108 S 1.919 1.9188 1.8765 +.04230 1.956 1.9700 1.9807 —.0107 0 1.930 1.9177 1.8752 +.0425N 1.972 1.9691 1.9793 —.0102 N 1.927 1.9160 1.8737 +.0423D 1.970 1.9691 1.9775 —.0084 D 1.919 1.9135 1.8724 +.0411

*Jnterpolated.....Stock Exchange closed.

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RAILROAD STOCK PRICES A213

TABLE 17—Continued

AMERICAN RAILROAD STOCK PRIcEs

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1917 1922j 1.910 1.9098 1,8708 +.0390 J 1.766 1.7799 1,7884 —.0085F 1.887 1.9045 1.8694 +.0351 F 1.781 1.7906 1.7894 +0012M 1.892 1.8975 1.8678 +.0297 M 1.779 1.8014 1.7903 +.0111A 1.887 1.8888 1.8661 +.0227 A 1.818 1.8120 1.7915 +.0205M 1.869 1.8785 1.8641 +.0144 M 1.827 1.8219 1.7927 +0292J 1.875 1.8670 1.8624 +.0046 J 1.822 1.8308 1.7940 +03683 1.869 1.8549 1.8604 —.0055 3 1.839 1.8385 1.7953 +.0432A 1.863 1.8428 1.8584 —.0156 A 1.859 1.8446 1.7970 +.0476S 1.844 1.8312 1.8560 —.0248 S 1.865 1.8489 1.7985 +.05040 1.825 1.8207 1.8538 —.0331 0 1.865 1.8512 1.8002 +.0510N 1.791 1.8117 1.8515 —.0398 N 1.840 1.8514 1.8020 +.0494D 1.776 1.8044 1.8489 —.0445 D 1.830 1.8495 1.8040 +.0455

1918 1923J 1.795 1.7991 1.8465 —.0474 3 1.830 1.8458 1.8061 +.0397F 1.800 1.7959 1.8439 —.0480 F 1.843 1.8406 1.8084 +.0322M 1.797 1.7946 1.8411 —.0465 M 1.845 1.8346 1.8105 +.0241A 1.788 1.7952 1.8384 —.0432 A 1.839 1.8281 1.8129 +.0152M 1.802 1.7975 1.8355 —.0380 M 1.823 1.8217 1.8152 +.00653 1.804 1.8012 —.0313 J 1.819 1.8158 1.8178 —.0020J 1.806 1.8060 1.8295 —.0235 J 1.801 1.8106 1.8204 —.0098A 1.816 1.8115 1.8266 —.0151 A 1.799 1.8063 1.8232 —.0169S 1.819 1.8171 1.8238 —.0067 S 1.801 1.8029 1.8259 —.0230o 1.836 1.8227 1.8209 +.0018 0 1.797 1.8008 1.8288 —.0280N 1.847 1.8277 1.8182 +.009S N 1.804 1.7999 1.8317 —.0318D 1.829 1.8319 1.8154 +.0165 D 1.803 1.8004 1.8349 —.0345

1919 19243 1.818 1.8351 1.8122 +.0229 3 1.810 1.8026 i.838.t —.0355F 1.819 1.8371 1.8099 +.0272 F 1.813 1.8064 [.8414 —.0350M 1.823 1.8378 1.8072 +.0306 M 1.810 1.8119 1.8448 —.0329A 1.825 1.8371 1.8045 +.0326 A 1.816 1.8190 .1.8483 —.0293M 1.848 1.8351 1.8018 +.0333 M 1.817 1.8272 1.8518 —.0246J 1.849 1.8317 1.7996 +.0321 J 1.829 1.8361 1.8555 —.0194J 1.847 1.8268 1.7974 +.0294 J 1.849 1.8453 1.8592 —.0139A 1.818 1.8206 1.7954 +.0252 A 1.861 1.8543 1.8629 —.0086S L810 1.8135 1.7935 +.0200 S 1.858 1.8627 1.8667 —.0040o 1.815 1.8058 1.7917 +.0141 0 1.853 1.8702 1.8706 —.0004N 1.801 1.7980 1.7903 +.O377 N 1.882 1.8770 .1.8746 +.0024D 1.781 1.7907 1.7889 +.0018 D 1.904 1.8829 1.8786 +.0043

1920 1925J 1.782 1.7844 1.7877 —.0033 J 1.907 1.8883 1.8827 +.0056F 1.764 1.7795 1.7866 —.0071 F 1.908 1.8932 1.8869 +.0063M 1.790 1.7763 1.7857 —.0094 M 1.896 1.8978 1.8911 +.0067A 1.774 1.7747 1.7849 —.0102 A 1.883 1.9020 1.8954 +.0066M 1,758 1.7745 1.7843 —.0098 M 1.895 1.9060 1.8997 +.0063J 1.754 1.7754 1.7839 —.0085 J 1.897 1.9098 1.9041 +.00573 1.760 1.7769 1.7835 —.0066 J 1.901 1.9136 1.9086 +.0O50A 1.775 1.7783 1.7830 —.0047 A 1.916 1.9173 1.9133 +.0040S 1.800 1.7792 1.7827 —.0035 S 1,920 1.9212 1.9180 +.0032O 1.819 1.7794 1.7826 —.0032 0 1.926 1.9253 1.9228 +.0025N 1.806 1.7785 1.7825 —.0040 N 1.938 1.9296 1.9277 +.0019D 1.764 1.7765 1.7826 —.0061 D 1,957 1.9341 1.9328 +.0013

1921 19263 1.776 1.7733 1.7826 —.0093 3 1.957 1.9386 1.9380 +.0006F 1.771 1.7692 1.7827 —.0135 F 1.950 1.9429 1.9434 —.0005M 1.750 1.7644 1.7830 —.0186 M 1.931 1.9470 1.9488 —.0018A 1.742 1.7593 1.7832 —.0239 A .1.934 i.9507 1.9543 —.0036M 1.759 1.7546 1.7836 —.0290 M 1.938 1.9541 1.9601 —.00603 1.732 1.7506 1.7839 —.0333 J 1.956 1.9576 1.9661 —.00853 1.750 1.7482 1.7842 —.0360 3 1.964 1.9614 1.9719 —.0105A 1.758 1.7479 1.7848 —.0369 A 1.976 1.9658 1.9778 —.0120S 1.762 1.7499 1.7854 —.0355 S 1.989 1.9711 1.9843 —.01320 1.755 1.7545 1.7861 —.0316 0 1.976 1.9775 1.9907 —.0132N 1.767 1.7613 1.7868 —.0255 N 1.979 1.9848 1.9972 —.0124D 1.768 1.7699 1.7874 —.0175 D 1.987 1.9929 2.0037 —.0108

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A214 APPENDIX

TABLE 17—Concluded

AMERICAN RAILROAD STOCK PRICES

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1927 1932J 1.993 2.0013 2.0100 —.0087 J 1.505 1.4818F 2.011 2.0090 2.0168 —.0069 F 1.503 1.4330M 2.016 2.0182 2.0234 —.0052 M 1.469 1.3909A 2.026 2.0261 2.0300 —.0039 A 1.328 1.3566M 2.035 2.0335 2.0365 —.0030 M 1.192 1.3304J 2.042 2.0403 —.0030 J 1.129 1.3125

J 2.050 2.0463 2.0499 —.0036 J 1.201 1.3032A 2.055 2.0516 2.0565 —.0049 A 1.409 1.3028S 2.062 2.0560 2.0629 —.0069 S 1.31130 2.061 2.0595 2.0694 —.0099 0 1.418 1.3218N 2.058 2.0621 2.0753 —.0137 N 1.387 1.3512D 2.067 2.0639 2.0817 —.0178 D 1.367 1.3793

1928 1933

J 2,060 2.0650 2.0876 —.0226 J 1.400 1.4098F 2.049 2.0657 2.0931 —.0274 F 1.377 1.4407M 2.063 2.0662 2.0983 —.0321 M 1.376 1.4701A 2.081 2.0667 2.1031 —.0364 A 1.406 1.4972M 2.088 2.0574 2 1078 —.0404 M 1.540 1.52203 2.066 2.0686 2.1115 —.0429 J 1.606 1.5447

3 2.060 2.0703 2.1149 —.0446 J 1.662 1.5657A 2.067 2.0730 2.1176 —.0446 A 1.659 1.5850S 2.078 2.0767 2.1199 —.0432 S 1.633 1.6024o 2.073 2.0817 2.1211 —.0394 0 1.550 1.6168N 2.095 2.0878 2.1215 —.0337 N 1,549 1.6275D 2.097 2.0950 2.1209 —.0259 D 1.572 1.6335

1929 1934

3 2.116 2.1028 2.1201 —.0173 5 1.620 1.6342F 2.110 2.1108 2.1177 —.0069 F 1.663 1.6301M 2.109 2.1185 2.1145 +.0040 M 1.647 1.6219A 2.103 2.1252 2.1105 +.0147 A 1.652 1.6107M 2.109 2.1309 2.1056 +.0253 M 1.605

3 2.126 2.1352 J 1.606

J 2.166 2.1380 J 1.555A 2.184 2.1393 A 1.516S 2.189 2.1392 S 1.506O 2.133 2.1374 0 1.518N 2.087 2.1339 N 1.512D 2.097 2.1285 D 1.523

1930 1935

3 2.094 2.1212 J 1.510F 2.116 2.1121 F 1.485M 2.118 2.1016 M 1.427A 2.110 2.0900 A 1.440M 2.088 2.0777 M 1.463

5 2.061 2.0653 J 1.479

3 2.061 2.0528 J 1.501A 2.049 2.0404 A 1.525S 2.041 2.0277 S 1.533O 2.008 2.0144 0 1.505N 1.970 2.0001 N 1.552D 1.931 1.9848 D 1.584

1931 1936

5 1.958 1.9681 J 1.617F 1.983 1.9499M 1.954 1.9298A 1.903 1.9067M 1.849 1.8795

3 1.831 1.84665 1.840 1.8074A 1.787 1.7613S 1.712 1.70910 1.655 1.6525N 1.614 1.5939D 1.502 1.5362

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THE GREENBACK PERIOD A215

TABLE 18

PRICE OF GOLD IN GREENBACKS JANUARY 1862-DECEMBER 1878'

MONTHLY AVERAGES

Date Date Date Date Date

1862 1865 1868 1872 1873J 102.5 J 140.1 N 134.4 M 110.1 A 113.5F 103.5 J 142.1 D 135.2 A 111.1 S 115.8M 101.8 A 143.5 1869 M 113.7 0 116.4A 101.5 S 143.9 J 135.6 J 113.9 N 114.7M 103.3 0 145.5 F 134.4 J 114.3 D 113.9J 106.5 N 147.0 M 131.3 A 114.4 1876J 115.5 D 146.2 A 132.9 S 113.5 J 112.8A 114.5 1866 M 139.2 0 113.2 F 113.4S 118.5 J 140.1 J 138.1 N 112.9 M 114.3o 128.5 F 138.4 J 136.1 D 112.2 A 113.0N 131.1 M 130.5 A 134.2 1873 M 112.6D 132.3 A 127.3 S 136.8 J 112.7 J 112.5

1863 M 131.8 0 130.2 F 114.1 J 111.9J 145.1 J 148.7 N 126.2 M 115.5 A 111.2F 160.5 J 151.6 D 121.5 A 117.8 S 110.0M 154.5 A 148.7 1870 M 117.7 0 109.7A 151.5 S 145.5 J 121.3 J 116.5 N 109.1M 148.9 0 148.3 F 119.5 J 11.5.7 D 107.9J 144.5 N 143.8 M 112.6 A 115.4 1877J 130.6 D 136.7 A 113.1 S 112.7 J 106.3A 125.8 1867 M 114.7 0 108.9 F 105.4S 134.2 J 134.6 J 112.9 N 108.6 M 104.8o 147.7 F 137.4 J 116.8 D 110.0 A 106.2N 148.0 rvr 135.0 A 117.9 1874 M 106.9D 131.1 A 135.6 S 114.8 J 111.4 J 105.4

1864 M 1.37.0 0 112.8 F 112.3 J 105.4J 155.5 J 137.5 N 111.4 M 112.1 A 105.0F 138,6 J 139.4 D 110.7 A 113.4 S 103.3M 162.9 A 140.8 1871 M 112.4 0 102.8A 172.7 S 143.4 J 110.7 J 111.3 N 102.8M 176.3 0 143.5 F 111.5 J 110.0 D 102.8J 210.7 N 139.6 M 111.0 A 109.7 1878J 258.1 D 134.8 A 1'10.6 S 109.7 J 102.1A 254.1 1868 M 111.5 0 110.0 F 102.0S 222.5 J 138.5 J 112.4 N 110.9 M 101.20 207.2 F 141.4 J 112.4 D 111.7 A 100.6N 233.3 M 139.5 A 112.4 1875 M 100.7D 227.5 A 138.7 S 114.5 J 112.3 J 100.8

1865 M 139.6 0 113.2 F 114.5 J 100.5'J 216.2 J 140.1 N 111.2 M 115.5 . A 100.5F 205.5 J 142.7 D 109.3 A 114.8 S 100.4M 173.8 A 143.5 1872 M 115.8 0 100.5A 148.5 S 143.6 J 109.1 J 117.0 N 100.2M 135.6 0 137.1 F 110.3 J 114.8 D 100.1

'W.C. Mitchell—Gold, Prices and Wanes under the Greenback Standard—pp. 5-13.

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A216 APPENDIX

TABLE 19

AN UNADJUSTED ARITHMETIC AVERAGE INDEX NUMBER OF THE YIELDSIN Goldl OF AMERICAN RAILROAD BONDS, MONTHLY,

JANUARY 1857-JANUARY 1879

Col. 1. IndexCol. 2. Logarithms of IndexCol. 3. Cyclical Curve (logarithms)

For details of the nature of the graduation given in Column 3 ofthis table, see Appendix D.

the meaning of gold yield see Appendix C. nature of this index of yields in gold is suchthat beginning with January 1879 it is identical with the index given in Table 10, column 4.

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THE GREENBACK PERIOD A217

TABLE 19AMERICAN RAILROAD BOND YIELDS

TJNAD JUSTED

Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical'Loga- curve Loga- curve Loga- curve

Date Data rithms (loga- Date Data rithms (loga- Date Data rithrns (toga-of data rithms) of data rithms) of data rit.hnis)

1857 1862 1867J 8.173 .9124 .0164 J 6.193 .7919 .7788 J 9.589 .9818 1.0005F 8.102 .9086 .9179 F 5.996 .7779 .7743 F 9.840 .9930 .9996M 8.107 .9089 .9211 M 5.881 .7695 .7719 M 9.693 .9865 .9990A 8.124 .9098 .9257 A 5.725 .7578 .7724 A 9.823 .9922 .9986M 8.195 .9136 .9313 M 5.594 .7477 .7760 M 9.962 .9984 .9987J 8.436 .9261 .9373 J 5.701 .7560 .78.31 J 10.036 1.0016 .9995

J 8.393 .9239 .943.1 J 6.491 .8123 .7935 J 10.063 1.0027 1.0009A 8,502 .9295 .9478 A 6,277 .7978 .8062 A 10.181 1.0078 1.0029S 9.563 .9806 .9509 S 6.388 .8054 .8205 S 10.424 1.0180 1.00520 10.295 1.0126 .9520 0 6.925 .8404 .8353 0 10.547 1.0231 1.0078N 9.519 .9786 .9507 N 6.986 .8442 .8494 N 10.343 1.0147 1.0102D 9.043 .9563 .9468 D 7.123 .8527 .8617 D 10.001 1.0000 1.0123

1858 1863 1868

J 8.715 .9403 .9403 J 7.564 .8788 .8717 3 10.186 1.0080 1.0138F 8.171 .9123 .9314 F 8.402 .9244 .8789 F 10.358 1.01.53 1.0148M 7.838 .8942 .9205 M 8.121 .9096 .8832 M 10.196 1.0084 1.0153A 7.773 .8906 .9082 A 8.189 .9132 .8850 A 10.20.1 1.0086 1.0154M 7.660 .8842 .8954 M 8.042 .9054 .8848 M 10.245 1.0105 1.0153J 7.570 .8791 .8828 j 7.765 .8901 .8835 J 1.0.284 1,0122 1.0150j 7.505 .8754 .8713 j 6.918 .8400 .8821. J 10.506 1.0214 .1.0148A 7.47.1. .8734 .8616 A 6.585 .8186 .8818 A 10.781 1.0327 1.0148S 7.346 .8661 .8538 S 7.188 .8556 .8839 S 10.741 1.0310 1.015t0 7.113 .8521 .8482 0 8.081 .9075 .8895 0 10.314 1.0134 1.0159N 6.992 .8446 .8445 N 8.232 .9155 .8996 N 1.0.200 1.0086 1.0171D 6.940 .8414 .8424 D 8.567 .9328 .9149 D 1.0.344 1.0147 1.0188

1.859 1864 1869

J 6.890 .8382 .8413 J 8.973 .9529 .9352 J 10.424 1.0180 1.0208F 6.875 .8373 .8410 F 9.148 .9613 .9599 F 10.358 1.0153 .1.0230

M 6.854 .8359 .8412 M 9.263 .9668 .9880 -M 10.164 1.0071 1.0249A 6.802 .8326 .8417 A 9.677 .9857 1.0176 A 10.352 1.0150 1.0263M 6.943 .8416 .8425 M 9.044 .9976 1.0468 M 10.814 1.0340 1.0268

J 7.139 .8536 .8434 j 11.927 1.0765 1.0735 j 10.740 1.0310 1.0260

J 7.1.12 .8520 .8440 J 14.043 1.1475 1.0958 J 10.674 1.0283 1.0236A 7.032 .8471 .8440 A 13.9.15 1.1435 1.1124 A 10.514 1.02.18 1.0194S 6.846 .8354 .8431 S 12.925 1.1114 1.1.224 S 10.832 1.0347 1.0136O 6.877 .8374 .8410 0 12.533 1.0981 1.1257 0 10.401 1.0171 1.0062N 6.897 .8387 .8376 N 14.067 1.1482 1.1226 N 10.092 1.0040 .9975D 6.843 .8353 .8329 D 14.011 1.1465 1.1141 D 9.718 .9876 .9880

1860 1865 1870

J 6.803 .8327 .8271 J 13,680 1.1361 .1.1014 3 9.621 .9832 .9782F 6.71.2 .8269 .8207 F 13.308 1.1241 1.0856 F 9.219 .9647 .9683M 6.631 .8216 .8142 M 11.712 1.0686 1.0681 M 8.467 .9277 .9590A 6.506 .8133 .8080 A 10.020 1.0009 1.0500 A 8.554 .9322 .9505M 6.327 .8012 .8025 M 9.048 .9566 1. .0325 M 8.641 .9366 .9432

J 6.158 .7894 .7980 J 9.670 .9854 1.0167 J 8.421 .9254 .9372

J 6.067 .7830 .7945 J 9.702 .9869 1.0034 J 8.769 .9430 .9327A 6.012 .7790 .7922 A 9.868 .9942 .9935 A 8.954 .9520 .9294S 6.009 .7788 .7910 S 9.972 .9988 .9871 S 8.728 .9409 .9274O 6.043 .7813 .7911 0 10.204 1.0088 .9844 0 8.561 .9325 .9264N 6.387 .8053 .7923 N 10.479 1.0203 .9850 N 8.480 .9284 .9251D 6.729 .8280 .7946 D 10.503 1.0213 .9882 D 8.397 .9241 .9262

1861 1866 1871

J 6.386 .8052 .7977 J 10.110 1.0048 .9929 3 8.344 .9214 .9263F 6.286 .7984 .8013 F 10.021 1.0009 .9981 .F 8.371 .9228 .9262M 6.123 .7870 .8048 M 9.480 .9768 1.0028 lvi 8.316 .9199 .9259

A 6.233 .7947 .8078 A 9.143 .9611 1.0064 A 8.265 .9172 .9252M 6.614 .8205 .8098 M 9.385 .9724 1.0083 lvi 8.308 .9193 .9242

.1 6.537 .8154 .8104 J 10.722 1.0303 1.0088 3 8.390 .9238 .9230

j 6.291 .7987 .8094 J 10.812 1.0339 1.0082 3 8.385 .9235 .9217

A 6.288 .7985 .8067 A 10.594 1.0251 1.0068 A 8.350 .9217 .9205

S 6.384 .8051 .8025 S 10.323 1.0138 1.0051 S 8.541 .9315 .9195

0 6.432 .8084 .7970 0 10.536 1.0227 1.0037 0 8.571 .9330 .9186N 6.351 .8028 .7909 N 10.154 1.0066 1.0024 N 8.437 .9262 .9178D 6.312 .8002 .7846 D 9.717 .9875 1.0013 D 8.177 .9126 .9172

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A218 APPENDIX

TABLE 19—(Concluded)AMERICAN RAILROAD BOND YIELDS

UNADJUSTED ARITHMETIC INDEX—GOLD

Cyclical Cyclical CyclicaLoga- curve Loga- curve Loga- curve

Date Data rithms (loga- Date Data rithms (toga- Date Data rithms (loga-of data rithms) of data rithms) of data

1872 1875 1878J 7.932 .8994 .9165 J 8.226 .9152 .9174 J 6.765 .8303 .8307F 8.011 .9037 .9160 F 8.363 .9224 .9183 F 6.745 .8290 .8278M 8.095 .9082 .9158 M 8.433 .9260 .9192 M 6.669 .8241 .8250A 8.181 .9128 .9159 A 8.291 .9186 .9199 A 6.607 .8200 .8224M 8.428 .9257 .9165 M 8.342 .9213 .9203 M 6.576 .8180 .81983 8.419 .9253 .9178 J 8.495 .9292 .9201 3 6.507 .8134 .8173

3 8.362 .9223 .9198 J 8.242 .9160 .9193 3 6.471 .8110 .8145A .9273 .9225 A 8.116 .9093 .9179 A 6.514 .8139 .8116S 8.464 .9276 .9255 S 8.265 .9172 .9159 S 6.494 .8125 .80830 8.499 .9294 .9288 0 8.379 .9232 .9134 0 6.468 .8108 .8048N 8,523 .9306 .9320 N 8.182 .9129 .9106 N 6.394 .8058 .8010D 8.500 .9294 .9350 D 8.031 .9048 .9075 D 6.311 .8001 .1972

1873 1876 1879

3 8.471 .9279 .9374 3 7.887 .8969 .9043 J 6.188 7916 .7932F 8,577 .9333 .9394 F 7.857 .8953 .9009 F .7893M 8.723 .9407 .9408 M 7.892 .8972 .8975 M .7856A 8.973 .9529 .9417 A 7.825 .8935 .8940 A .7820M 8.957 .9522 .9422 M 7.832 .8939 .8905 M .7789J 8.830 .9460 .9423 3 7.790 .8915 .8870 J .7761J 8.704 .9397 .9420 J 7.638 .8841 .8836 3 .7738A 8.692 .9391 .9414 A 7.568 .8790 .8803 A .7719S 8.591 .9340 .9403 S 7.563 .8787 .8770 S .7705O 8.636 .9363 .9388 0 7.541 .8774 .8739 0 .7693N 8.680 .9385 .9368 N 7.483 .8741 .8709 N .7683D 8.600 .9345 .9344 D 7.374 .8677 .8679 D .7671

1874 1877 1880J 8.459 .9273 .9318 3 7.185 .8564 .8651 J .7658F 8.429 .9258 .9290 F 7.116 .8522 .8623 F .7640M 8.427 .9257 .9263 M 7.177 .8559 .8595 M .7618A 8.534 .9312 .9238 A 7.316 .8643 .8569 A .7590M 8.516 .9302 .9215 M 7.330 .8651 .8542 M .7557J 8.363 .9224 .9196 J 7.111 .8519 .8516 J .7519J 8.263 .9171 .9181 J 7.047 .8480 .8488 J .7478A 8.214 .9146 .9170 A 7.048 .8481 .8460 AS 8.189 .9132 .9163 S 6.911 .8395 .8431 S v0 8.151 .9112 .9160 0 6.896 .8386 .8400 0N 8,145 .9109 .9161 N 6.875 .8373 .8369 NID 8.220 .9149 .9166 D 6 835 .8347 .8337 D

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THE GREENBACK PERIOD A219

TABLE 20

AN INDEX NUMBER OF THE GOLD PRICES OF AMERICAN RAILROADCOMMON STOCKS, JANUARY 1862-DECEMBER 1878

This index number was constructed by multiplying the monthlypaper index figures (see Table 10) by the monthly average prices ofgreenbacks in gold (compare Table 18).

Col. 1. IndexCol. 2. Logarithms of Index /

Col. 3. Cyclical Curve (logarithms)

For details of the nature of the graduation given in Column 3 of thistable, see Appendix D.

Page 221: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A220 APPENDIX

TABLE 20

AMERICAN RAILROAD STOCK PRICES—GOLD

Cyclical Cyclical CyclicalLoga- curve Loga- curve Loga- curve

Date Data rithms (toga- Date Data rithms (toga- Date Data rithms (loga.of data rithms) of data rithms) — of data rithms)

1860 1865 18703 J 15.25 1.183 1.2042 J 31.37 1.497 1.5076F F 15.66 1.195 1.2186 F 32.89 1.517 1.5149M M 16.77 1.225 1.2364 M 34.68 1.540 1.5221A A 19.35 1.287 1.2561 A 35.06 1.545 1.5288M M 21.66 1.336 1.2761 M 35.94 1.556 1,5350J j 20.58 1.313 1.2952 J 36.80 1.566 1.54053 c 1.2441 3 21.17 1.326 1.3121 J 34,47 1.537 1.5454,A 1.2475 A 20.72 1.316 1.3268 A 33.53 1.525 1.5495S 1.2488 S 21.51 1.333 1.3369 S 34.74 1.541 1.55290 1.2476 0 21.87 1.340 1.3436 0 35.33 1.551 1.5556N 1.2439 N 21.84 1.339 1.3471 N 35.97 1.556 1.5578D 1.2379 D 21.65 1.335 1.3483 D 35.77 1.554 1.5595

1861 1866 1871

J 1.2302 J 21.56 1.334 1.3471 3 35.86 1.S55 1.5609F 1.2212 F 21.2c 1.328 1.3461 F 35.98 1.556 1.5622M 1.2119 lvi 22.63 1.355 1.3453 M 36.91 1.567 1.5634A .E 1.2034 A 23.60 1.373 1.3449 A 38.01 1.580 1.5650lvi 1.1963 lvi 23.26 1.367 1.3455 M 38.57 1.586 1.5667

J a. a. 1.1912 j 20.87 1.320 1.3468 J 37.09 1.580 1.5686J 1.1886 J 20.85 1.319 1.3488 j 37.30 1.572 1.5707A 1.1884 A 22.04 1.343 1.3510 A 37.34 1.574 1.5729S 1.1904 S 22.64 1.355 1.3531 S 37.00 1.568 1.57510 "' 1.1943 0 22.88 1.359 1.3550 0 35.54 1.551 1.5772N 1.1997 N 23.25 1.366 1.3565 N 36.48 1.562 1.5192D 1.2061 D 23.99 1.380 1.3577 D 37.86 1.578 1.5811

1862 1867 1872

3 16,14 1.208 1.2130 J 23.41 1.369 1.3585 J 38.78 1.580 1.5829F 16.54 1.219 1.2197 F 22.73 1.357 1.3592 F 38.59 1.586 1.5846M 17.33 1.239 1.2257 M 22.98 1.361 1.3598 M 39.83 1.600 1.5863A 17.25 1.237 1.2306 A 22,35 1.349 1.3605 A 40.68 1.609 1.5878M 17.75 1.249 1.2340 lvi 22.40 1.350 1.3615 lvi 39.63 1.598 1.5892J 18.06 1.257 1.2360 J 23.07 1.363 1.3628 J 39.12 1.592 1.5905J 16.28 1.212 1.2368 3 23.57 1.372 1.3646 J 38.67 1.587 1.5913A 16.97 1.230 1.2370 A 23.45 1.370 1.3671 A 38.08 1.581 1.5918S 17.58 1.245 1.2374 S 22.99 1.362 1.3703 S 37.91 1.579 1.5916o 17,81 1.251 1.2385 0 22.94 1.361 1.3741 0 37.92 1.579 1.5908N 17.61 1.246 1.2412 N 23.49 1.371 1.3783 N 37.81 1.578 1.5893D 17.80 1.250 1.2459 D 24.70 1.393 1.3829 D 39.04 1.592 1.5872

1863 1868 1873J 18.33 1.263 1.2529 J 24.91 1.396 1.3876 J 39.25 1.594 1.5846F 17.15 1.234 1.2621 F 24.96 1.397 1.3921. F 39.24 1.594 1.5815M 17.40 1.243 1.2735 M 25.18 1.401 1.3964 M 38.47 1.585 1,5780A 18.06 1.257 1.2869 A 25.17 1.401 1.4005 A 37.07 1.569 1.5742M 20.13 1.304 1.3017 M 25.86 1.413 1.4046 lvi 37.17 1.570 1.57023 20.07 1.303 1,3172 J 26.21 1.418 1.4086 3 37.20 1.571 1.56593 22.74 1.357 1.3326 j 25.74 1.411 1.4129 J 37.33 1.572 1.5616A 25.27 1.403 1.3466 A 24.97 1.397 1.4176 A 37.26 1.571 1.5573S 23.71 1.375 1,3581 S 25.52 1.407 1.4226 S 35.25 1.547 1.5532O 22.13 1.345 1.3657 0 27.13 1.433 1.4279 0 33.43 1.524 1.5494N 22.16 1.346 1.3684 N 26.90 1.430 1.4334 N 32.34 1.510 1.5464D 21,51 1.333 1.3652 D 27.29 1.436 1.4388 D 34.80 1.542 1.5441

1864 1869 1874J 21.77 1.338 J 28.18 1.440 1.4440 J 36.20 1.539 1.5428F 22.39 1.350 1.3414 F 28.66 1.457 1.4488 F 36.95 1.568 1.5424M 23.33 1.368 1.3219 M 29.13 1.464 1.4532 M 36.33 1.560 1.5430A 22.40 1.350 1.2992 A 29.25 1.466 1.4574 A 34.94 1.543 1.5441M 20.97 1.322 1.2750 M 29.14 1.464 1.4614 lvi 34.35 1.536 1.5456J 17.90 1.253 1.2512 J 29.66 1.472 1.4654 3 34.41 1.537 1.5472J 14.45 1.160 1.2295 J 30.04 1.478 1.4698 J 34.84 1.542 1.5484A 14.82 1.171 1.2115 A 30.87 1.490 1.4747 A 35.13 1.546 1.5489S 15.90 1.201 1.1985 S 28.33 1.452 1.4802 S 35.65 1.552 1.54870 16.01 1.204 1.1911 0 29.52 1.470 1.4863 0 35.45 1.550 1.5475N 14.93 1.174 1.1897 N 30.22 1,480 1.4931 N 35.22 1.547 1.5454D 15.22 1.182 1.1943 D 30.88 1.490 1.5002 D 35.03 1.544 1.5425

Page 222: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

THE GREENBACK PERIOD

TABLE 20—(Concluded)

AMERICAN RAILROAD STOCK PRICES—GOLD

A221

Loga-rith insof data

curve(10 ga-

rithms)Date

1875JFMAMJJAS0ND

1876

MAMJJAS0ND

Data

35.0434.2834.3334.8933.0832.1332.8333.3032.3331 . 7032.6032.82

33.9234.2834.1433.1731.9131.6531.4930.2528.8228.6328.1728.29

Loga-rithmsof data

1.5451.5351.5361.5431.5201.5071.5161.5221.5101.5011.5131.516

1.5301.5351.5331 .52E1.5041.5001.4981.4811.4601.4571.4501 .452

Cyclicalcurve(loga-

rithms)

1.53901.53511.53111.52741.52411.52151. 31971.51871.51831.51841.51881.5 192

1.51931.51901.31791.5 1561,51171.50601. 49801.48791. 47581.46231 . 44821.4344

Date

1877JFMAM

I1878

JFMA

JJAS•0ND

Data

28.4726.9125,8123.6223.3722.3923.1524.7226.8127.7127.2127 .09

27.2626.7327.4228.4428.4229.1529.7629.4130.0829.7629.7429.66

Loga-rithinsof data

1.4541.4301.4121.3731.3691.3501 . 3651.3931.4281.4431.4351.433

1.4361.42 71.4381.4541.4541.4651.4741.4691.4781.4741.4731.472

a)

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9,

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rithms)

1. 42 181.41111.40281. 39691.39341. 39221.39311. 39611.40101. 40741.41531.4239

1.43261.44081. 44811. 45 401.45861. 46201. 46471. 46701.46951.47251.47651.4814

1.48791.49591.50581.51761.53111 .5460.1 .56161.57731 .59231 .60591.61781.6278

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Page 223: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A222 APPENDIX

TABLE 21

CALL MONEY RATES AT THE NEW YORK STOCKEXCHANGE

MONTHLY AVERAGES, JANUARY 1857 - JANUARY 1936

Cal. 1. Logarithms of Data Adjusted for Seasonaltuations.

Col. 2. Cyélical Curve (logarithms).Col. 3. Trend Curve (logarithms).Col. 4. Deviations of Cyclical Curve

(logarithms) from Trend Curve(logarithms).

Col. 5. Changing Seasonal Fluctuations(logarithms).

For details of the nature of the graduations given in Columns 2 and3 and of the seasonal given in Column 5 of this table, see Appendix D

Page 224: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 226: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES

TABLE 21—Continued

Date

A225

1

CALL MONEY RATES

2 3 4 5

1877JFMAMJJAS0ND

.633

.522

.390

.481• 465.408.448660

.678• 685635

.613

Date 1 2 3

44614529

.4666

.4866

.5116

.5400

.5697

.5988

.6258

.6490

.6668

.6776

.4945

.4979

.5019

.5068.5 121.5178.5 237.5 296.5 355.5418.5482.5544

4 5

— .0484— .0450— .0353— .0202— .0005+.0222+.0460+.0692+ .0903+.1072+. 1186+.1232

+ .097—.002+.078+.086— .076—.165—.205—.129— .044+. 100+.096+ . 165

1882JFMAMjJAS0I.'?D

1

705.677.587.574.536.656.641.649.861.672804

.551

.6229

.62 12

.6245

.6314

.64096521

.6654

.6806

.6969

.71217236

.7280

.6644

.63 72.

.6491

.6402

.6308

.6204

.6098

.5985

.587 1

.5 747

.5623

.5498

—.0415— .0360— .0246—.0088+.01o1+0317+ .0556+0821+. 1098+01374+1613+ .1782

+.030—.024+.080+ . 035— .059—.105—.164—.052—.001

+ .068+ .088+ .115

878JFMAM33AS0ND

1.900.681.604.713.617.568.446.371.408.602.481.490

.6803

.6740

.6583

.6336.60 125644

.5267

.4926

.4664

.4520

.45 11

.4643

.5 607

.5669

.5728

.5 787

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.589 7

.5949

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.6136.6181

+.1196+.1071+.0855+ .0549+ .0170— .0253— .0682—.1072—.1380—.1570—.1625—.1538

+.089—.004+ .084+.078—.073—.160—.203—.113—.044

+ .097+.100+.151

8833FMAMJ3AS0ND

.634649

.948

.758606

.389.481.439.371.366.217.215

07210.7007.6670.62 11.5672.5 110.45 79.4 125.3798.36 12.3559.3610

53 72.5 248.5121.4996.4871.4748.46324527

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.4246

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±. 1838±.1759+. 1549+. 1215+ .0801+.0362—.0053—.0402—.0631—.0721—.0687—.0557

+ ow—. 033+ .068+.024— .056— .088—.1.53— .041+.016+ . 065+ . 084+.113

.407

.492

.566

.575

.651

.670

.667

.990

.779

.999

.839

.622

.4902

.526t

.5692

.6158

.6625

.7066

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.7752

.795 1

.8026

.7973

.7802

1884JFMAM

.622 7

.62 73

.63 17.6363.6408.6454.6498.6544.65886631

.6673.6714

—.1325—.1012— .0625—.0203+ .0217+.0612+.0953+.1208+.1363+.1395+.1300+.1088

+.077— .006

+ .087+.068— .070—.150—.197— .095—.039+.092+ .102+.141

1

1879JFMAMJ3AS0ND

1880JFMAM3JAS0ND

.274

.318

.191

.307

.231

.608

.419

.276

.212

.227

.077

.063

.3741

.3902

.4044

.4141.4162.408.5.3901.36 16.3235.2 790.2326.1884

3JAS0ND

.4092

.4027

.3968

.3916

.3869

.383 1

.3797

.3767

.3746

.3 732

.372 1

.37 13

—.0351—.0125+ .0076+.0225+.0293+ .02.54+ .0104—.015 1—.05 11—.0942—.1395—.1829

+ .005—.044+.052+.015— .055—.071—. 140—.033+.031+.06.3+.081+.113

.639

.677

.774

.759

.675

.614

.584

.476

.462

.375

.683

.919

.7533

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.6526

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.6037

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.6178

.6345

.6352

.6773

1885JFMAM

.6 753

.679 1

.6826

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.6915

.6938

.6959.6978.6991.7002.7010

+.0780+.0409+.0022—.0333—.0619—.0814—.0901—.0890—.0800—.0646—.0450—.0237

+ .060—.011

+ .088+ .057— .066—.137—.186—.078—.031+.084+.099+. 130

.077

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.260

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.263.350.323

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.1098.1090.1199.1403.1669.1961.2263.2569.2874.3 190

33AS0ND

.3709

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.3717

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.3767

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.6371.220

.789

.600

.592

.619

.712

.731

.739

.661.622.657

.6994

.7198

.7360

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—.0018+.0186+ .0354+ .0465+ .0505+.0469+.0352+ .0183—.0007—.0188—.0332—.0410

+ .045—.018+.085+ .047— .063—.121—.175— .064—.019+ .075+ .094+.121

18863FMAM3JO

AS0ND

.333

.380

.407

.379.513.576.471.750.713.639.671.821

.3528

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.4254

.4633• 5013.5380.5731.6071..6391.668 7.6956.7 192

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—.0470—.0158+ .0160+ .0484+.0804+.1111+.1397+.1668+. 19 18+ .2140+.2336+.2495

—.005—. 066+.016— .002—.034—.051—. 119— .025+.058+ . 065+ .080+.119

Page 227: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 230: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 231: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A230 APPENDIX

TABLE 21—Concluded

CALL MONEY RATES

3 4 51

.645• 602.616.622.629.639.617.586.579.589.555.600

2

.6491

.6434

.6352

.6247

.6131

.6020

.5930

.5873

.5862

.5905

.5999.6143

3 4

.6754

.6838

.6914

.6990

.7063

.7131

.7 195

.7264

.73 10

.7357

.7396

.7428

— .0263— .0404— .0562— .0743—.0932—.1111—.1265—.1391—.1448—.1452—.1397—.1285

Date1932

MAMJJAS0ND

I

.433408

• 398.398.398.398.318.321.301.130000

—.040

—.010+ .003

000—.001

.000— .003— .010—.020+ .001+ .002+ .001+. 041

2

.3914

.4036

.4039

.3929

.37 20

.34323099

.2746

.2392

.2045

.1719.1414

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—.010—.010

.000

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+ .040

.637

.647

.650

.706

.756

.801

.785857

.861

.844

.824

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.6330

.6550

.6791

.7048

.7311

.75 73

.7832

.8085

.8328

.8555

.8766

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.1126

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Date1927

MAMJJAS0ND

1928JFMAMJJAS0ND

1929JFMAMJJAS0ND

1930JFMAMJJAS0ND

1931JFMAMJJAS0ND

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.7210

.7148

.7083

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—.0560—.0497—.0359—.0152

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Page 232: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES A231

TABLE 22

90-DAY TIME MONEY RATES IN NEW YORK CITY

MONTHLY AVERAGES, JANUARY 1890- JANUARY 1936

Col. 1. Logarithms of Data Adjusted for Seasonal Fluc-tuations.

Col. 2. Cyclical Curve (logarithms).Col. 3. Trend Curve (logarithms).Col. 4. Deviations of Cyclical Curve

(logarithms) from Trend Curve(logarithms).

Col. 5. Changing Seasonal Fluctuations(logarithms).

For details of the nature of the graduations given in Columns 2 and3 and of the seasonal given in Column 5, see Appendix D.

.

Page 233: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 234: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES

TABLE 22—Continued

TIME MONEY RATES

A233

1 2 3 4

• 686.672.643• 549.510.572.572.565.538• 637.576• 630

1 2 3 4 5

.662 1.6490.6340.6179.6018.5870.5745.5656.36 12.5616.5664.5751

.5823

.5870

.59 18

.5970

.6024

.6080

.6 135

.6187

.6237

.6288

.6337

.6383

S

—. Q05—. 044+016— .005—.033— .086— .046—.007+ .061+ .057+ .060+ .049

+.0798+.0620+.0422+.0209

0006—.0210—.0390—.0531— .0625—.0672—.0673—.0632

Date

1905JFMAM3JAS0ND

.463

.517

.523.567.564.582.567.545.593.612.650.656

.4823

.4960

.5108

.5265

.5430.5605.5788.597 7.6170.6366.6560.6752

.6236

.6263

.6288

.63 13

.6335

.6360

.6384

.6407

.6429

.6451

.6471• 6490

—.1413—.1303—.1180—.1048—. 0905—. 0755—.0596—.0430—.0259— .0085+.0089+.0262

+ .004—.026—.014— .040—.062—. 095—.077—.029+.038+.078+.107+ .122

.587

.555

.505

.632

.677

.642

.681

.655

.649

.609

.398

.646

.5861

.5978

.6086

.6179

.6246

.6290

.63 14

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.633 1

.6342

.6364

.6402

.6424.6465.6501.6532.65536577

.65956607

.6615

.6622

.6622

.6617

—.0563—.0487—.0413—.0353—.0309—.0287—.0281— .0281—.0284—.0280—.0258—.0215

Date1900

3FMAM

3:AS0ND

1901JFMAMJJAS0ND

19023FMAM

3:AS0ND

19033FMAMJJAS0ND

—.004— .043+.011—.015—.038—.091—.045—.014

+ .055+.058+.069

.699

.746

.737796

.761

.736

.735

.760

.822703747

.772

.6940

.7 120

.7287

.7434

.755 1

.7630

.7662

.7 650

.7 600

.7326

.7452

.7400

.6507.65 26.6541.6555.6567.6580.6592.6601.66 10.6618.6625.6630

+ .0433+0594+0746+ .0879+,09844.1030+. 1070+.1049+.0990+ .0908+ .0827+.0770

+ .007— .026—.019—.041—.066—. 095—.082— .028+ . 035+.0844.110+.125

19063FMAMJJAS0ND

1907JFMAMJ3AS0ND

.659

.641

.599

.653

.722

.732

.711

.695

.843.811.725.745

.6463

.6550

.6659

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.6928

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.7206

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.7411.7465.7486.7478

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.6458

.6432

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.63 76

—.0145—.0047+ .0075+ .0218+ .0378+ .0542+ .06V8+ .0837+0953+,1033+.1081+.1102

—.003—.039+.003—.025—.045—.094—.048—.02 1+.051+ .061+.084+.088

.734

.748

.818

.687

.668

.740

.791

.833

.722

.8151.020

.876

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.7508

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.663 2

.662 6

.6617

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.6569

.6543

.65 16

.6484

+ .0753+.0786+.0874+.1000+.11s1+.1300+.1425+.1501+. 1512+.1450+.13034.1074

+. 008—. 028—.024—.042—. 069—. 003—.083—.026+.035+ .091+. 110+.124

.696

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.63 16

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+,1098+,1074+.1041+.1002+ .0953+.0836+.0821+,0724+.0595+ .0436+.0236+ .0004

.000—. 035—.034—.033—.050—.—.055—.025+ .046+ .065+.093+.103

.721

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.583- 4)7.535.454• 439.430.375.395.411.387

.7220

.68 13

.6354

.5869

.5387

.4936

.4544

.4235

.402 1.3906.3883.3936

6446.6407.636 1.63 11.625 7.6201.6 142.6081.6020.5958.589 7.3834

+.0774± .0406—.0007—.0442—.0870—.1265—.1598—.1846—.1999—.2052—.2014—.1898

+.008—.031—.030—.042—.071—.089—.079—.022+.035+.096+. 1094.118

1908JFMAMJ3AS0ND

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— .0254—.0524— .0794—.1046—.1263—.1441—.1568—. 1642—.1667—.1647—.1593—.1512

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Page 235: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 236: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 237: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A236 APPENDIX

TABLE 22—Concluded

TIME MONEY RATES

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1930 — 1934J .682 .7097 —.010 3 .047 —.0519 —.010F .668 .6637 — .001 F —. 040 —.0588 —.001M .614 .6184 +001 M —.057 —.0583 +.OOtA .613 .5757 +002 A —.057 —.04)7 +.001M .550 .5365 —.001 lvi —.055 —.00!J .473 .5005 —.011 3 —.045 —.0113 .455 .4672 —.011 3 —.045 —.011A .419 .4352 —.001 A —.055 —.001S .394 .4032 +.019 S —.075 +.019o .370 .3704 +.019 0 —.075 +.019N .339 .3376 —001 N —.055 —.001D .351 .3060 —.001 D —.055 —.001

1931 1935

J .332 .2781 —.010 J —.046 —.010F .275 .2566 —.001 F —.055 —.001M .325 .2440 +001 M —.057 +.001A .325 .2420 +.001 A —.253 +.001M .221 .2510 —.001 M —.601 —.001J .160 .2708 —.011 3 —.591 —.0113 .163 .2997 —.011 3 —.591 —.011A .177 .3349 —.001 A —.601 —.001S .209 .3729 +.019 S —.621 +.019o .485 .4100 +.019 0 —.488 +.019N .549 .4407 —001 N .001 —.001D .532 .4606 — 001 D .001 —.001

1932 19363 .561 .4655 —.010 J .010 —.010F .560 —.001M .495 .4198 +.00tA .429 .3696 +.001M .202 .3055 —.001J .187 .2325 —.011J .169 .1575 —.011A .141 .0869 —.001S .031 .0259 +.019o —.032 —.0225 +.oicN —.300 —.0560 —.001D —.300 —.0750 —.001

1933J —.291 —.0817 —.010F —.179 —.0782 —.001M .467 —.0672 +.001A .0)6 —.0520 +.001M .018 —.0356 —.0013 —.021 —.0203 —.0.113 .075 —.0090 —.011A .034 —.0038 —.001S —.213 —.0051 +.019o —.180 —.0128 +.019N —.080 —.0253 —.001D .038 —.0398 —.001

Page 238: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES A237

TABLE 23

COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES IN NEW YORK

MONTHLY AVERAGES, 1857-JANUARY 1936

Col. 1. Logarithms of Data Adjusted for Seasonal Fluctuations.Col. 2. Cyclical Curve (logarithms).Col. 3. Trend Curve (logarithms).Col. 4. Deviations of Cyclical Curve (logarithms)

from Trend Curve (logarithms).Col. 5. Changing Seasonal Fluctuations (l9gar.ithrns).

For details of the nature of the graduations given in Columns 2 and3, and of the seasonal given in Column 5 of this table, see Appendix D.

1 January 1857-December 1923 'Choice 60-90 day two name paper'.January 1924-January 1932 '4-6 months Prime double and single name paper'

Page 239: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A238 APPENDIX

TABLE 23

COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1857 1862J .933 .9297 .8917 +.0380 +.013 J .777 .7788 .7833 —.0045 +.022F .929 .9529 .8868 +.0661 +.017 F .752 .7696 .7840 —.0144 +.019M .979 .9787 .8819 +.0968 —.012 M .803 .7589 .7844 —.0255 —.004A .979 1.0040 .8.771 +.1269 —.025 A .790 .7469 .7848 —.0379 —.005M .932 1.0262 .8724 +.1538 —.019 M .711 .7342 .7850 —.0508 —.012J .927 1.0427 .8677 +.1750 —.030 3 .683 .7218 .7855 —.0637 —.030J .960 1.0511 .8631 +.1880 —.031 3 .770 .7108 .7857 —.0749 —.030A .997 1.0501 .8589 +.1912 +.003 A .666 .7019 .7859 —.0840 —.013S 1.239 1.0392 .8547 +.1845 +.016 S .700 .6956 .7860 —.0904 —.0010 1.365 1.0180 .830S +.1675 +.015 0 .647 .6922 .7863 —.0941 +.006N 1.040 .9868 .8467 +.1401 +.021 N .658 .6918 .7868 —.0950 +.014D .876 .9467 .8429 +.1038 +.027 D .707 .6942 .7870 —.0928 +.034

1858 1863

J .861 .8980 .8396 +.0584 +.014 J .701 .6994 .7873 —.0879 +.023F .742 .8444 .8362 • +.0082 +.018 F .739 .7067 .7880 —.0813 +017M .752 .7883 .8329 —.0446 —.012 M .724 .7184 .7887 —.0703 .000A .737 .7335 .8300 —.0965 —.022 A .724 .7253 .7895 —.0642 .000M .576 .6833 .8274 —.1441 —.015 M .732 .7354 .7901 —.0541 —.016J .661 .6430 .8248 —.1818 —.026 3 .766 .7444 .7914 —.0470 —.034J .599 .6137 .8224 —.2087 —.030 J .779 .7526 .7925 —.0399 —.031A .607 .5979 .8200 —.2221 .000 A .740 .7598 .7940 —.0342 —.016S .635 .5957 .8180 —.2223 +.012 S .751 .7664 .7954 —.0290 —.0030 .632 .6060 .8160 —.2100 +.011 0 .748 .7729 .7973 —.0244 +.008N .658 .6260 .8140 —.1880 +.014 N .800 .7799 .7992 —.0193 +.020D .636 .6327 .8123 —.1596 +.029 D .798 .7880 .8011 —.0131 +.035

1859 1864

J .648 .6825 .8106 —.1281 +.016 3 .839 .7975 .8031 —.0056 +.024F .721 .7133 .8090 —.0957 +.020 F .800 .8087 .8053 +.0034 -J-.013M .724 .7425 .8074 —.0649 —.010 M .745 .8211 .8076 +.0135 +.003A .741 .7690 .8059 —.0369 —.019 A .821 .8346 .8099 +.0247 +.005M .823 .7920 .8045 —.0125 —.012 M .861. .8484 .8123 +.0361 —.022J .864 .8106 .8030 +.0076 —.025 J .872 .8621 .8146 +.0475 —.0393 .850 .8240 .8016 +.0224 —.029 3 .847 .8750 .8170 +.0580 —.034A .850 .8317 .8001 -J--.0316 —.003 A .905 .8867 .8194 +.0673 —.019S .808 .8337 .7986 +.0351 +.008 S .958 .8967 .8219 +.0748 —.004o .821 .8301 .7972 +.0329 +.009 0 .953 .9046 .8239 +.0807 +.o'iN .782 .8225 .7957 +.0268 +.010 N .889 .9102 .8262 +.0840 +.030D .800 .8128 .7941 +.0187 +.030 D .855 .9134 .8285 +.0849 +.038

1860 1865J .884 .8032 .7925 +.0107 +.019 J .879 .9139 .8307 +.0832 +.024F .831 .7959 .7909 +.0050 +.020 F 920 .9124 .8327 +.0797 +.009M .780 .7925 .7895 +.0030 —.009 M .948 .9092 .8345 +.0747 +.006A .763 .7940 .7881 +.0059 —.015 A .921 .9049 .8363 +.0686 +.008M .773 .8003 .7868 +.0135 —.010 M .884 .9002 .8381 +.0621 —.027J .766 .81.06 .7854 +.0252 —.026 J .871 .8954 .8397 +.0557 —.0453 .760 .8238 .7842 +.0396 —.028 3 .899 .8908 .8412 +.0496 —.036A .791 .8384 .7832 +.0552 —.006 A. .909 .8862 .8426 +.0436 —.023S .841 .8526 .7822 +.0704 +.004 S .855 .8812 .8440 +.0372 —.004o .826 .8654 .781.3 +.0841 +,007 0 .866 .8752 .8452 +.oisN 1.037 .8757 .7807 +.0950 +.009 N .863 .8677 .8464 +.0213 +.040D 1.080 .8827 .7801 +.1026 -f-.031 D .331 .8586 .8476 +.0110 +.041

1861 1866J .882 .8857 .7797 +.1060 +.021 J .843 .8479 .8487 —.0008 +.024F .842 .8848 .7794 +.1054 +.021 F .858 .8361 .8497 —.0136 +.004M .791 .8796 .7792 +.1004 —.006 M .856 .8237 .8507 —.0270 +.009A .803 .8707 .7792 +.0915 —.011 A .814 .8119 .8517 —.0398 -I-.012M .918 .8593 .7795 +.0798 —.010 M .815 .8013 .8527 —.0514 —.033J .840 .8464 .7797 +.0667 —.027 3 .797 .7925 .8538 —.0613 —.052J .769 .8332 .7800 +.0532 —.029 J .809 .7863 .8548 —.0685 —.039A .822 .8210 .7804 +.0406 —.009 A .795 .7830 .8557 —.0727 —.023S .798 .8105 .7810 +.0295 +.001 S .723 .7826 .8568 —.0742 —.0030 .827 .8016 .7817 +.0199 +.006 0 .717 .7854 .8578 —.0724 +.019N .789 .7939 .7824 +.0115 +.010 N .776 .7913 .8589 —.0676 +.049D .813 .7867 .7830 +.0037 +.032 D .793 .7997 .8600 —.0603 +.045

Page 240: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES

TABLE 23—Continued

Date

A239

1

PAPER RATES

1867

2 3 4 5 Date 1

JFMAM

AS0ND

1872

2

.846

.851

.847.842• 863.925.858.841.853.899.875.851

3

.8103

.8224

.8351

.8473.8581.8668.8725.8752.8751.8724.8680.8627

.86 11

.862 2

.8632

.8642

.8652

.8662

.867 2

.8682

.8692

.8700

.8709

.8718

4

— .0508—.0398—.0281—.0169—.0071+.0006+.0053+ .0070+.0059+.0024—.0029—.0091

5

+.023—.002+.010+ .014—.039—.057—.042—.028-.001+.025+ .057+ .049

• 899.900.930.923.916.854.879.916.978.972.993.964

.8880

.8982

.9077

.9163

.9236

.9295

.9340

.9375

.9407.9447.9503..9578

.9080

.9080

.9079

.9076

.907 1

.9067

.9059

.9050

.9041

.9029

.9016

.9001

—.0200—.0098—.0002+.0087+.0165+.0228+.0281+.0325+.0366+.0418+.0487+ .0577

+.020— .021+.007+.016— .059—. 076— .069—.037+.022+ .061+.072+ .071

1868JFMAM3JAS0ND

3FMAMJJAS0ND

1873JFMAM3JAS0ND

.827

.821

.874

.887866

.819

.859

.851

.827

.840

.937

.862

8572.8519.8475.8443.8424.842 1.8439.8480.8348.8649.8784.8950

.8729

.8738

.8747

.8756

.8765.8774.8783.8791.8800.8807.8815.8823

—.0157—.0219—.0272—.0313—.0341—.0353—.0344—.0311—.0252—.0158—.0031+.0127

+ .022— .008+.011+.016— .045— .062— .046— .030+ .002+.032+.063+ .054

I

.948• 995

1 .0001.043

.970

.911

.883

.8861.1281.1521.091

.920

.967 1

.97 76

.9880

.99661.00221.00411.0016

.9948

.9844

.9 707

.95 41

.9349

.8987

.8968

.8949

.8929

.8905

.8879

.885 1

.882 1.8788.8752.8715.8674

+.0684+.0808+,0931+.1037+.11 17+.1162+ .1165+ .11.27+,1056+.0955+.0826+.0675

+.020—.023

+ .005+.014—. 060—.077—.074— .037+ .027+.065+.070+.072

.899

.898

.962

.978

.9431.0521.0621.0121.033

.9771.009

.947

.9 1439351

.9561

.9756

.99201.00391.01001. 00991. 003 7

.99 17

.9750

.9551

.883 1

.8840

.8846

.8853

.8859

.8864

.8870

.8876

.8881

.8887

.8892

.8898

+ .0312+ .0511+.0715+.0903+.1061+.1175+.1230+.1223+.1156+.1030+.0858+ .0653

+.021—.012+.011+.017—.050—.067—.051—.032

+ .006+.039+.068+ .060

869JFMAMIJAS0ND

1870JFMAMJJAS0ND

1874IFMAMJJAS0ND

.852

.801

.784

.783

.812

.823

.828

.772

.765

.697

.682

.707

.9131

.8888

.8626

.835 5

.8090

.7 845

.7637

.7473

.7355

.7277

.7231

.7206

.8632

.8588

.8541

.8492

.8439

.8387

.833 1

.82 76

.82 16

.8 1598100

.8038

+0499+.0300+ .0085—.0137— .0349— .0542— .0694—.0803—.0861— .0882—.0869— .0832

+.020— .023+ .004+.013—.059—.078— .079—.036

+ .031+067+ .068+.071

1

.934

.884

.865

.840

.859

.808

.863

.890

.848

.814

.789

.877

.9339

.9 127

.8932

.8764

.8628

.85 24

.8446

.8387

.8335

.8284

.8230

.8 173

.8903

.8909

.8915

.892 1

.8928

.8935

.8943

.8952

.8962

.8972

.8982

.8992

+ .0436+.0218+ .0017—.0157—.0300—.0411—.0497—.0565—.0627— .0688—.0752—.0819

+ .020—.016+.010+.017—.054—.071—.058—.034+.012+.048+.071+ .065

875IFMAMJJAS0ND

.699

.738

.767

.724

.717

.735

.716

.728

.737

.731

.741

.751

.7192

.7 186

.7188

.7 202

.7232

.7278

.7337

.7399

.74557493

.7509

.7499

.7973.7909.7843.7782• 7724.7661.7602.7543.7483.7426.73 70.73 17

— .0781—.0723—.0657— .0580— .0492— .0383—.0265—.0144— .0028+,0067+.0139+.0182

+ .021—.023+ . 004+.012—.058—.077—.082—.034+ .033+.069+ . 065+. 069

1871IFMAMIJAS0ND

.839

.840

.788• 815.798.778.754.778.806.946.897.929

.8118

.8074

.8050

.805 1

.8079

.8 136

.82 16

.8314

.8425

.8541

.8657

.8771

.9002

.9012

.902 1

.9030

.9039

.9047

.9054

.9060

.9068

.9071

.9075

.9078

—.0884—.0938—.0971—.0979—.0960—.0911—.0838—.0746—.0643—.0530—.0418—.0307

+ .020—.019

+ .008+.016— .058— .074— .064— .036+.017+.055+.072+ .069

1876IFIvlAM3JAS0ND

.789

.749

.727

.730

.759

.753

.667

.587

.642

.685

.674

.704

.7467

.7417

.7351

.72 71

.7179

.7077

.6967.6856.6753.6668.6610.6588

.7266

.7217

.7170

.7128

.708 7

.7051• 7018.6987.6959.6935.6916.6899

+.0201+.0200+.0181+ .0143+.0092+.0026—.0051—.0131— .0206—.0267— .0306—.0311

+.021—.022+ .005+.010—.056—.076—.086—.031+.035+.069+.062+ .065

Page 241: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 242: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES A241

TABLE 23—Continued

COMMERCIAL PAPER RAPES

Date 1 2 3 4 —__5 Date 1 2 3 I, S

1887 18923 .740 .7400 .6808 +.0592 .000 J .623 .6231 .7062 —.0831 —.004F .714 .7492 .6822 +.0670 —.032 F .604 .6020 .7038 —.1018 —.037M .735 .7571 .6833 +.0736 —.007 M .600 .5836 .7009 —.1173 .000A .752 .7634 .6849 +.0785 —.021 A .559 .5688 .6980 —.1292 —.019M .759 .7680 .6863 +.0817 —.042 M .538 .5591 .6942 —.1351 —.038J .756 .7711 .6881 +.0830 —.046 J .514 .5559 .6913 —.1354 —.044J .826 .7726 .6897 +.0829 —.034 J .560 .5609 .6878 —.1269 —.020A .792 .7725 .6916 +.0809 +.011 A .580 .5752 .6841 —.1089 +.018S .795 .7708 .6934 +.0774 +.046 S .616 .5996 .6800 —.0804 +.0570 .758 .7672 .6954 +.0718 +.048 0 .667 .6331 .6765 —.0434 +.046N .722 .7614 .6974 +.0640 +.038 N .693 .6744 .6729 +.0015 +.018D .737 .7535 .6995 +.0540 +.041 D .726 .7203 .6693 +.0510 4.044

1888 18933 .749 .7438 .7016 +.0422 —.001 J .712 .7669 .6655 +.1014 —.004F .720 .7326 .7036 +.0290 —.034 F .732 .8100 .6621 +.1479 —.036M .725 .7206 .7056 +.0150 —.007 M .829 .8458 .6587 +.1871 +.004A .755 .7085 .7076 +.0009 —.023 A .775 .8710 .6552 4.2158 —.015M .725 .6970 .7096 —.0126 —.042 M .861 .8839 .6519 +.2320 —.0363 .673 .6862 .7113 —.0251 —.045 J .974 .8839 .6487 +.2352 —.0463 .640 .6764 .7127 —.0363 —.029 J 1.056 .8712 .6456 +.2256 —.019A .626 .6676 .7141 —.0465 +.013 A 1.007 .8471 .6426 +.2045 +.019S .675 .6599 .7153 —.0554 +.048 S .860 .8131 .6396 +.1735 4.058o .658 .6333 .7161 —.0628 +.047 0 .726 .7711 .6367 +.1344 +,046N .643 .6481 .7167 —.0686 +.034 N .626 .7229 .6339 +.0890 +.015D .658 .6446 .7172 —.0726 +.038 D .555 .6709 .6314 +.0395 +.008

1889 1894J .669 .6432 .7174 —.0742 —.002 J .547 .6184 .6289 —.0105 —.005F .663 .6442 .7173 —.0731 —.035 F .554 .5683 .6265 —.0582 —.033M .660 .6477 .7171 —.0694 —.007 M .474 3241 .6244 —.1003 +.007A .655 .6535 .7166 —.0631 —.023 A .503 .4888 .6224 —.1336 —.012M .627 .6611 .7159 —.0548 —.042 M .501 .4643 .6205 —.1562 —.034J .633 .6701 .7152 —.0451 —.044 3 .511 .4507 .6188 —.16813 .670 .6798 .7145 —.0347 —.026 3 .493 .4471 .6174 —.1703 —.018A .699 .6896 .7136 —.0240 +.015 A .469 .4509 .6160 —.1651 4.018S .672 .6992 .7129 —.0137 +.051 S .458 .4589 .6149 —.1560 +.058o .731 .7079 .7121 —.0042 +.047 0 .395 .4682 .6138 —.1436 +.046N .747 .7162 .7114 +.0048 +.031 N .433 .4768 .6129 —.1361 +.013D .750 .7236 .7109 +.0121 +.035 D .456 .4837 .6122 —.1285 +.003

1890 1895

3 .730 .7301 .7107 +.0194 —.002 J .496 .4893 .6115 —.1222 —.005F .739 .7353 .7104 +.0249 —.037 F .594 .4949 .6109 —.1160 —.035M .747 .7394 .7103 +.0291 —.007 M .582 .3018 .6103 —.1085 +.010A .731 .7419 .7105 +.0314 —.023 A .608 .5107 .6097 —.0990 —.009M .745 .7433 .7110 +.0323 —.041 M .473 .5219 .6091 —.0872 —.031J .743 .7440 .7116 +.0324 —.044 J .467 .3354 .6081 —.0733 —.049J .726 •7445 .7123 +.0322 —.023 J .486 .5506 .6081 —.0575 —.018A .731 .7455 .7129 +.0326 +.016 A .522 .5673 .6074 —.0401 +.018S .707 .7472 .7136 4.0336 +.053 S .547 .5861 .6065 —.0204 +.058O .725 .7500 .7144 +.0356 +.046 0 .633 .6075 .6056 +.0019 +.046N .802 .7539 .7152 +.0387 +.027 N .604 .6316 .6047 +.0269 +.012D .836 .7585 .7159 +.0426 +.029 D .675 .6387 .6037 +.0550 +.002

1891 1896

J .769 .7632 .7166 +.0466 —.003 J .784 .6878 .6028 4.0850 —.006F .736 .7672 .7171 +.0501 —.037 F .799 .7167 .6016 +.1151 —.035lvi .724 .7696 .7173 +.0523 —.004 M .707 .7428 .6006 4.1422 +.011A .727 .7693 .7173 +.0518 —.021 A .729 .7635 .5996 4.1639 —.007M .771 .7658 .7175 +.0483 —.040 M .685 .7761 .5987 4.1774 —.0293 .784 .7583 .7172 +.04L3 —.044 3 .679 .7793 .5978 4.1815 —.0513 .769 .7471 .7166 +.0305 —.021 3 .722 .7733 .5971 4.1762 —.019A .743 .7318 .7157 +.0161 +.017 A .876 .7591 .5965 +.1626 +.017S .706 .7132 .7143 —.0011 +.056 S .862 ,7384 .5939 4.1425 +.0570 .701 .6919 .7128 —.0209 +.046 0 .876 .7135 .3957 +.1178 +.046N .681 .6691 .7109 —.0418 +.023 N .715 .6862 .5956 +.0906 4.013D .662 .6458 .7087 —.0629 +.022 D 569 .6575 .5956 +.0619 +.003

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Page 244: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES A243

TABLE 23—Continued

COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1907 1912J .790 .7746 .7139 +.0607 —.001 J .637 .6112 .6740 —.0628 —.016F ;800 .7779 .7140 +.0639 —.026 F .599 .6193 .6768 —.0575 —.025M .797 .7828 .7140 +.0688 —.006 M .637 .6281 .6794 —.0513 —.015A .798 .7893 .7139 +.0754 —.024 A .640 .6375 .6816 —.0441 —.023M .778 .7968 .7136 +.0832 —.040 M .648 .6475 .6840 —.0365 —.026J .785 .8042 .7130 —.049 J .626 .6582 .6855 —.0273 —.024J .788 .8102 .7126 +.0fl6 —.028 J .664 .6696 .6868 —.0172 —.009A .195 .8139 .7120 +.1019 +.001 A .682 .6817 .6879 —.0062 +.017S .800 .8138 .7111 +.1027 +.033 S .717 .6945 .6887 +.0058 +.0280 .805 .8092 .7100 +.0992 +.046 0 .739 .7077 .6889 +.0188 +.034N .816 .7998 .7086 +.0912 +.044 N .734 .1213 .6887 +.0326 +.023D .844 .7855 .7070 +.0785 +.050 D .749 .7346 .6881 +.0465 +.029

1908 1913J .813 .7666 .7052 +.0614 —.002 J .701 .7471 .6871 +.0600 —.019F .729 .7441 .7032 -l-.0409 —.025 F .714 .7581 .6857 +.0724 —.024M .762 .7188 .7008 +.0180 —.008 M .775 .7664 .6839 +.0825 —.015A .674 .6917 .6982 —.0065 —.025 A .763 .7711 .6820 +.0891 —.021M .634 .6640 .6951 —.0311 —.039 M .749 .7714 .6798 +.0916 —.021J .608 .6371 .6919 —.0548 —.047 3 .786 .7667 .6773 +.0894 —.0173 .600 .6119 .6886 —.0767 —026 J .786 .7571 .6746 +.0825 —.005A .552 .5895 .6850 —.0955 +.004 A .760 .7435 .6717 +.0718 +.018S .561 .5711 .6812 —.1101 +.033 S .738 .7273 .6684 +.0589 +.026o .563 .5570 .6775 +.046 0 .723 .7100 .6652 +.0448 +.030N .563 .5477 .6737 —.1260 +.042 N .728 .6935 .6618 +.0317 +.017D .538 .5431 .6697 —.1266 +,047 D .732 .6795 .6582 +.0213 +.023

1909 1914J .575 .5427 .6654 —.1227 —.004 3 .677 .6689 .6548 +.0141 —.021F .573 .5457 .6617 —.1160 —.025 F .607 .6622 .6509 +.0113 —.022M .554 .5514 .6579 —.1065 —.010 M .599 .6594 .6475 +.0119 —.015A .570 .5588 .6543 —.0955 —.026 A .591 .6599 .6440 +.0159 —.018M .574 .5675 .6503 —.0828 —.037 M .605 .6631 .6405 +.0226 —.016J .555 .5770 .6472 —.0702 —.043 J .596 .6679 .6371 +0308 —.009J .551 .3873 .6441 —.0568 —.022 J .648 .6734 .6337 +.0397 —.001A .599 .5989 .6412 —.0423 +.007 A .783 .6784 .6302 +0482 +.019S .589 .6117 .6382 —.0265 +.032 S .805 .68.17 .6267 +.0550 +.021o .657 .6261 .6359 —.0098 +.045 0 .786 .6822 .6235 +.0587 +.023N .664 .6419 .6339 +.0080 +.039 N .729 .6786 .6203 +.0583 +.0.liD .665 .6586 .6321 +.0265 +.043 D .621 .6698 .6171 +.0527 +.018

1910 19153 .685 .6752 .6306 +.0446 —.008 3 .607 .6556 .6140 +.0416 —.022F .673 .6906 .6294 +.0612 —.026 F .593 .6362 .6110 +.0252 —.019M .665 .7038 .6286 +.0752 —.012 M .543 .6126 .6083 +.0043 —.014A .702 .7135 .6282 +.0853 —.025 A .577 .5868 .6057 —.0189 —.014M .711 .7191 .6280 —.034 M .582 .5611 .6031 —.0420 —.011J .730 .7202 .6283 +.0919 —.038 3 .565 .5377 .6008 —.0631 —.003J .749 .7173 .6287 +.0886 —.018 3 .510 .5187 .5986 —.0799 +.002A .724 .7105 .6295 +.0810 +.011 A .531 .5050 .5967 —.0917 +.018S .711 .7006 .6303 +.0703 +.032 S .498 .4969 .5949 —.0980 -f-.0180 .703 .6885 .6317 +.0568 +,042 0 .490 .4933 .5935 —.1000 +.018N .706 .6730 .6335 +.0415 +.034 N .470 .4939 .5921 —.0982 +.006D .629 .6605 .6353 +.0252 +.039 D .478 .4965 .5911 —.0946 +.012

1911 19.16

J .612 .6460 .6372 +.0088 —.011 3 .516 .5001 .5904 —.0903 —.022F .635 .6321 .6396 —.0075 —.026 F .510 .5038 .5898 —.0860 —.016M .605 .6193 .6421 —.0228 —.014 M .505 .5078 .5897 —.0819 —.011A .506 .6081 .6448 —.0367 —.024 A .504 .5 120 .5900 —.0780 —.010M .589 .5992 .6480 —.0488 —.030 M .500 .5168 .5909 —.0741 —.006J .598 .5927 .6510 —.0583 —.032 3 .557 .5227 .5918 —.0691 +.002J .590 .5889 .6542 —.0653 —.013 J .596 .5299 .5933 —.0634A .608 .5878 .6577 —.0699 +.014 A .557 .5383 .5953 —.0570S .626 .5891 .6611 —.0720 +.030 S .516 .5478 .5973 —.04950 .600 .5924 .6646 —.0722 +,039 0 .517 .5582 .6002 —.0420 +.012N .566 .5974 .6678 —.0704 +.029 N .541 .5692 .6034 —.0342 +.002D .631 .6038 .6710 —.0672 +.034 D .584 .5807 .6068 —.0261

Page 245: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 246: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES A245

TABLE 23—Concluded

COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1927 1932J .622 .6247 .6341 —.0094 .000 J .602 .5319 .000F .592 .6229 .6377 —.0148 .000 F .589 .5373 .000M .602 .6197 .6416 —.0219 .000 M .547 .5309 .000A .612 .6151 .6456 —.0305 .000 A .529 .5130 .000M .616 .6095 .6497 —.0402 .000 M .477 .4852 .000

J .616 .6034 .6534 —.0500 .000 J .444 .4500 .000

J .609 .5976 .6572 —.0596 .000 J .408 .4112 .000A .591 .5930 .6604 —.0674 .000 A .338 .3726 .000S .592 .5904 .6631 —.0733 .000 S .326 .3371 .0000 .602 .5904 .6664 —.0760 .000 0 .288 .3066 .000N .594 .5932 .6692 —.0760 .000 N .241 .2826 .000D .599 .5990 .6706 —.0716 .000 D .179 .2651 .000

1928 1933

J .589 .6076 .6739 —.0663 .000 3 .140 .2532 .000F .601 .6185 .6757 —.0572 .000 F .140 .2458 .000M .622 .6311 .6773 —.0462 .000 M .444 .2413 .000A .634 .645! .6784 —.0333 .000 A .408 .2379 .000M .658 .6597 .6791 —.0194 .000 M .318 .2340 .000

J .674 .6745 .6796 —.0051 .000 J .228 .2280 .000

j .707 .6891 .6798 +.0093 .000 J .176 .2181 .000A .734 .7031 .6795 +.0236 .000 A .176 .2033 .000S .747 .7162 .6790 +.0372 .000 S .097 .1832 .000O .741 .7284 .6783 +.0501 .000 0 .097 .1578 .000N .731 .7394 .6770 +.0624 .000 N .097 .1281 .000D .736 .7493 .6754 +.0739 .000 D .149 .0956 .000

1929 1934

J .740 .7581 .6738 +.0843 .000 J .097 .0623 .000F .745 .7658 .6716 +.0942 .000 F .086 .0300 .000M .755 .7723 .6692 +.1031 .000 M .000 —.0002 .000A .769 .7774 .6666 +.1108 .000 A .000 —.0273 .000M .778 .7808 .6638 +.1170 .000 M —.046 .000

J .778 .7819 .000 J —.125 .000

J .778 .7800 .000 J —.125 .000A .784 .7745 .000 A —.125 .000S .787 .7648 .000 S —.125 .000o .787 .7506 .000 0 —.125 .000N .733 .7318 .000 N —.125 .000D .699 .7090 .000 D —.125 .000

1930 1935

j .690 .6832 .000 J —.125 .000F .665 .6557 .000 F —.125 .000M .613 .6278 .000 M —.125 .000A .589 .6009 .000 A —.125 .000M .566 .5756 .000 M —.125 .000

J .537 .5520 .000 J —.125 .000

J .498 .5297 .000 J —.125 .000A .477 .5077 .000 A —.125 .000S .477 .4853 .000 S —.125 .000O .477 .4620 .000 0 —.125 .000N .473 .4379 .000 N —.125 .000D .475 .4141 ;000 D —.125 .000

1931 1936

3 .450 .3918 .000 3 —.125 .000F .398 .3731 .000M .403 .3600 .000A .380 .3538 .000M .326 .3554 .000

3 .326 .3652 .0003 .290 .3826 .000A .274 .4063 .000S .274 .4343 . .0000 .525 .4642 .000N .602 .4926 .000D .602 .516! .000

Page 247: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A246 APPENDIX

TABLE 24

COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES IN BOSTON MONTHLY 1831—1860

(From Joseph G. Martin's "Seventy-three Years' History of theBoston Stock Market" pages 37 and 38. Martin's table is precededby the statement that "the following rates are for first-class, threeto six months, bankable paper. Loans 'on call' range from 1 to 3per cent lower." Martin's table goes to 1871. In his later volume"One Hundred Years' History of the Boston Stock Market" it iscontinued through 1897.)

1831.—Jan., 53/2 per cent, and gradually rose to 7, the rate for lastfour months of year.

1832.—Opened at 7 per cent; declined to 6 in March; rose to 7 inMay; thence for the year, 6 per cent.

1833.—Opened at 6 per cent; declined to rose to 63/2 and to 8,July, Aug., and Sept.; to 10, Oct.; 12, Nov., and 15, Dec.

1834.—In Jan., 15 to 24 per cent; then high and variable, and fellin Dec. from 10 to 8 per cent. Called a "panic year."

1835.—Rates low, and down to 5 per cent; but closed in Dec. at 8to 10. Called the "golden year" for business.

1836.—Opened at 10 per cent; up to 12 in March; 15, April; 18,May; up to 24, Aug. and Sept.; 36, Oct., and 24 to 30, Nov. and Dec.

1837.—Opened at 16 per cent; advanced to 20, and receded to 13;up to 18 in Feb.; 27, March; 30, April; 32, May; then fell rapidly to 6in June; advanced to 73/2; fell to 6 in Nov., and rose to 10 in Dec. Bankssuspended May 10; resumed May, 1838.

1838.—Jan., 11 per cent; Feb., 12; March and April, 12 to 18; fellin May from 10 to 7; thence, 6 to 7 till Dec., and closed at 7 to 9 per cent.

1839.—Opened at 6 to 9, and stationary till July, when it advancedto 11 and 12; in Aug. to 15; Sept. to 21; Oct. to 30; Nov. to 36, and thenrapidly fell to 9 per cent at the close of year.

1840.—Jan., 9 per cent; Feb. and March, 9 to 12, and fell in Aprilto 7; May, 7; June, 6 to 8; July, fell to 5, and ranged at 6 to 7 for re-mainder of the year.

1841.—At 6 to 7 per cent till May; then 6 till Sept., and 63/2 to 7,up to 9, in Nov., and 9 to 12 in Dec.

1842.—At 9 to 12 till April; then 8 to Aug.; Sept., 7; declined to6 in Oct. and Nov., and thence 6 to 9 per cent to close of year.

1843.—Opened at 6 per cent; then 5 to 6 till May; declined in Mayto and 3 in June; "exceptional loans" made as low as 23/2; thence33/2 to 4 per cent.

1844.—Opened at 4 per cent; rose to 5 in March, and remained forthe year with little change from 5 per cent.

1845.—Opened at 5 per cent, and ranged from 5 to 6 till Aug., androse to 8 in Nov. and Dec.

Page 248: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES

1846.—Opened at 8 per cent; rose to 9 in Feb.;March; thence ranged from 8 anddeclined to 6 in Sept.; thence 6, 7,

1847.—Opened at 8 per cent; advanced toto 10 in March; fell to 6 in June; advanced toNov., and 18 in Dec.

1848.—Jan., 18 perMay and June, 15 to 1815; Dec., 15 to 12.

1849.—Jan., 12 per cent; Feb., 9 to 12;May, 9 to 11; declined to 7 in June; July, 8Oct., 9 to 10, reaching in Dec.

1850.—Jan., 9 to9; April, May, and June, 7thence, 7 to 8 per cent.

1851.—Opened at 6 toand March; April, 8; fell to15 inSepL; and 16, Oct.; thence 9 to 12 per cent.

1852.—Opened at 9 per cent; fell to in. Feb.May, 6, and 53/b the Summer months. In Sept., 6cent.

March; fell toSept.; 15, Oct.

1854.—Opened at 9and 12, April and May10 to 12, up to 18, in Dec

1855.—Opened at

A247

declined to 7 inIn Aug., 8 to 9;

March, April andto 7; thence, 6 per

1853.—Opened at 6 per cent; advanced to 8, and gradually to 12 in8 in May; then 9 to 10 in June and July; rose to 12 in

18, Nov., and fell to 9, Dec.per cent; fell to 7 in Feb.; rose to 10 in March,fell to 9 in June; July, 9 to 10; Aug., 12; and

15 per cent; fell to 10, and in March to 7; roseto 10 in April; fell to 63/2, May; up to 8, and fluctuated from 6 to 8, tillOct.; in Oct., 9, and thence 10 to 15 per cent.

1856.—Opened at 10 to 12 per cent; Feb., 9 to 10; March, 7 to 9;thence till Nov. at 9 to 10, and in Dec., 10 to 11 per cent.

1857.—Opened at 9 to 10 per cent; Feb., to 9; March, 9 to 10,and fell to 7 and 8 in April and May; June, July, Aug., 9 to 10, and rosein Sept. from 12 to 36; Oct., 24 to 36; Nov., 15 to 24; Dec., 9 to 15. Bankssuspended Oct. 13, and resumed Dec.. 12.

1858.—Jan., 73/b to 9 per cent; fell to 5 in March,and 434 in April; thence, 43/b to 4 in Sept. In Aug., "call loans" reportedat 23/b in New York, and leading bankers said to be purchasing their ownpaper at two per cent. Prominent sixty days' acceptances passed at 3per cent. Oct. and Nov., 4; Dec., 5 per cent.

1859.—Jan., 5 to 6 per cent; Feb., March, and April,May, 63/b to 8; June to Nov., 7 to 8; Dec., 7 to 83/2 per cent.

1860.—Jan. and Feb., 734 to 93/2 per cent; March, 6 to 8;May, 6 to 7; June, 5 to 7; July, 5 to 63/2; Aug., 6 to 9; Sept.,Oct., 63/2 to 73/2; Nov., 7 to 15; Dec., 12 to 18market being disturbed by the Government as a constant borrower, andthe threatening aspect of political matters South.

9 to 12, up to Aug.and 8 per cent.

cent; Feb.,July and

12 in Jan. and Feb.; 89 and 12 in Oct.; 15 in

18 to 12; March andAug., 12 to 15; Oct.,

April, 1218; Nov.,

to 15;l8to

March and April, 12 toAug., 73/2 to Sept.,

per cent; Feb.to 81/2; fell to

15;9;

and March, receded to 8 and634 in July; rose to 9 in Sept.;

734 per cent; advanced to 7 and 834 in Feb.634 in May, and rose to 11 in July and Aug.;

534 to 7;April and634 to 9;

per cent; the money

Page 249: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A248 APPENDIX

TABLE 25

COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES IN BOSTON MONTHLY 1831-1860

(From Erastus B. Bigelow's The Tar'iff Question Appendix Table No. 112. Bigelowdescribes these rates as "street rates on first class paper in Boston at the beginning,middle, and end of the month." Both. figures and comments are Bigelow's.)

1831 1834 1838J S. M 12 18F 53/2 0 A 18 12M N M 10 9 7A D 12 10 8 J 7 6M 53/b J 6J 1835 A 6 7J 6 J S S 6 7A 6

67 7

M

6A

7 9

M 6 9A 9

766

A 66 N6 96

D JJ J

18 12J 6 SF 0M NA D 6M 6 J 8J

JA 18 6S N 7

A 6MJJ 6 7A 73/2

J S 6 7F 0 6 7M N 6

10 6M J

6J 7

6 73/2

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SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES A249

'I'ABLE 25—( Continued)

1841 1845 1849N 6 9 N 6 8 N 8 10D 9 .12 D 8 D 93/2 103-s

1842 1846 1850J 912 J 8 J 9 103/2F 9 12 F 8 9 F 9 8M 9 12 M 8 7 M 8 9A 8 A 9 12 A 83/2 9M 8 M 8 12 M 73/2 83/2J 8 .J 8 12 J 734 8J 8 J 8 12 9 J 63/2 7A 7 8

9 S 73/2 9O 63/2 6 0 6 8 0 7 8N 6 63/2N 6 7 N 7.8D 6 9 D 6 7 D 7 8

1843 1847 1851J 6 J 8 12 J 6 73/2F 6 5 F 8 12 F 7 834M 5 6 M 8 10 M 7 834A 5 A 8 9 A 8M 5 43/2 M 8 M 734 63/2J 5 43/2 3'/2J 7 6 J 7 9J 4 J 7 6 J 9 iiA A 7 9 A 11S 33/2 4 S 9 S 12 15O 33/2 4 0 . 9 12 0 15 16N 4 N 12 15 N 9 12D 33/2 4 D 12 18 D 9 12

1844 1848 1852J 4 J 18 J 9 834F 4 F 18 15 12 F 83/2 734M 4 5 M 12 15 M 7 6A 5 A 15 A 6M 5 M 12 15 M 6J .5 J 15 18 J 534 6J S J 15 18 J 53/2 6A . 5 A 12 15 A 53/2 6S . 5 53/2S 12 15 S 6 7o 5 0 15 18 0 6N 5 53/2N 18 15 N 6D 5 5 D 15 12 D 6

1845 1849 1853J 5 6 J 12 J 6 7 8F 53/2 6 F 9 12 F. 9 10M 53/2 6 M . 12 15 M 10 1.2A 534 6 A 12 15 A 103/2 10M S 3/2 6 M 9 11 M 7 8 9J 534.6 J 7 9 J 8 9J 6 J 8J 9A .6 A 734 834A 9 10S 6 S 9 S 10 120 6 53/20 9 10 0 12 15

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A250 APPENDIX

TABLE 25—(Coricluded)

1853 1856 1858N 15 18 12 M 10 A 4 4 4D 12 10 9 A 9 8 S 4 4 4

M 7 8 0 434 434 4341854 J 7 8 N 434 434 5J 9 8 J 7 8 D 5 5 5F 7 9 A 7 8M 9 8 10 S 8 9A 10 12 0 9 10 1859M 10 12 N 9 10J 9 11 D 10 11 F 534 6 6

J 10 9 M 6 534 534A 10 9 A 534 534 534S 10 12 1857 M 6 63% 63%

o 12 10 9 10 J 7 8 7

N 10 12 F 834 9 J 7 634 7

D 12 18 M 9 10 A 73% 7 7

A 8 9 S 7 7341855 M 8 7 0 73% 734 734

is io 7 8 N 734 7 7

F 10 9 10 D 7 8 8M 7 A 9 10

A 8 10 S 12 24 360 36 24 24 1860

M 634 8 N 24 18 15 8 9 834J 7 6 D 15 12 F 8 7 634J 6 7 M 6 6 5A 7 8 A 5 43% 434S 7 8 1858 M 434 434 4340 734 9 J 9 8 734 J 434 5 534N 10 12 F 6 6 534 J 534 534 6D 12 15 M 534 534 5 A 6 6 6

A 5 5 434 S 6 534 5341856 M 434 434 434 0 536 534 6J 10 12 J 434 434 434 N 6 9 12F 10 9 J 434 434 434 D 15 15 12

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SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES

TABLE 26

'These rates are monthly averages of daily quotations for the month.

A251

tRates for 1918 are 'Prevailing Rates' calculated at the Federal Reserveaverages of daily quotations are not, available before January 1919. -

Bank of New York. Monthly

AVERAGE MONTHLY' RATE ON 90-DAY PRIME BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES

JFMAMJJAS0ND

JFMAMJJAS0ND

JFMAMJJAS0ND

19182

4.004.124.254.254.254.254.254.254.254.314.314.31

1919

4.254.254.254.254.254.254.264.284.254.254.524.95

1920

5.375.506.006.006.136.256.256.256.256.256.236.25

1921

5.945.975.985.675.695.595.255.004.944.494.274.16

1922

3.954.003 .733.323.183 .073.003.003.123 .724.004.00

1023

3.983.994.004.144.134.134.134.134.134.134.134.13

1924

4.094.074.043.953 .292.452.012.102.332.212.372.89

1925

3.003.083.253.143.173.253.253.273.503.503 .503.50

1926

3.673 .633.633.423.203.323.383.573 .883.883.703.83

1927

3.693 .693 .633 .633 .633 .633.503.133.133 .253 .253.25

1928

3.363,513 .523,813 .944.054.324.624.504.504.504.501929

4.845.155.345.465.485.495.165.135,135.014.233.90

1930

3.963 .773.072.912.482.091 .881.881 .881 .881 .881 .88

1931.

1.581.391 .501.431.01

.88

.88

.8898

2.472.993.00

:1932

2.852.782.511. .39

.92

.86.75.75.75.59.50.39

1933

.33

.472.49

.81

.50

.38

.48

.45

.25

.25,39

.62

1934

.5050

.31

.201919

.19

.19

.19

.17

.13

.13

1935

.131'3

.13

.13

.13

.13

.1313

.13

.13

.13

.13

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A252 APPENDIX

TABLE 27

BANK CLEARINGS, Pm IRON PRODUCTION AND WHOLESALE PRICES

PART I

Bank Clearings in New York City, October 1853 - December 1874(daily averages —thousands of dollars)

PART II

Col. 1 Bank Clearings in New York City, January 1875—January 1919;Bank Debits in New York City, January 1919-January 1937(daily averages —thousands of dollars)

Col. 2 Deflated' Bank Clearings Outside New York City, January1875-January 1919; Deflated Bank Debits for 140- OutsideCities, January 1919-January 1937 (daily averages —thou-sands of dollars)

Col. 3 Bank Clearings Outside New York City,2 January 1875-January1919; Bank Debits for 140 Outside Cities, January 1919-January 1937 (daily averages —thousands of dollars)

Col. 4 Pig Iron Production in the United States,3 January 1877-January1937 (daily averages —thousands of gross tons)

Col. 5 Carl Snyder's Index of General Price Level, January 1875-January 1937

Col. 6 United States Bureau of Labor Statistics Index Number ofWholesale Prices of Commodities, January 1890-January 1937.

1Deflated by Carl Snyder's index of general price level.2Estimated by chaining monthly totals, making the percentage movement from each December to

the immediately succeeding January be the same as the percentage movement of the totals of the largestnumber of cities whose clearings were available for the December and the January.

8These figures do not include charcoal pig iron. Monthly figures for 1877-September 1901 were es-timated from weekly capacity of furnaces in blast.

Page 254: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS, PIG IRON AND PRICES

TABLE 27PART I

BANK CLEARINGS IN NEW YORK CITY

A253.

1853jFMAMJJAS0ND

1857JFMAMJJAS0ND

21,85423,76924,22125,50924,85623,99623,50621,57316,0629,954

10,71610,878

1861JF'VIAMjJAS0ND

11,38115,68815,530

16,96217,03917,10417,46714,23912,27312,83711,86112,86416,64616,61.515,823

1854jFMAMJJAS0ND

1.5,00816,00817,00517,06418,74217,57915,13714,78915,13915,45114,90413,773

1858JFMAMJJAS0N1)

11,05712,73114,85114,70715,20614,50213,91713,45514,45216,89617,85017,015

1862JFMAMJJAS0ND

14,54015,60115,86117,19722,53022,05223,OSS20,25725,53734,88829,21.529,793

1855jFMAM

AS0ND

13,78113,68117,62314,7111.5,74415,50714,15014,75015,42517,07118,45717,838

1859JFMAMJJAS0ND

16,54817,68218,87220,38220,17017,17115,59615,96817,92618,61919,22618,826

1863JFMAMJJAS0ND

39,86942,83242,15539,58149,20140,78540,64544,49152,85062,16758,95057,202

1856JF

AMJJAS0ND

1.7,55618,764].7,98120,11421,45218,02319,24417,66720,52022,64323,16722,822

1860JFMAMJJAS0ND

18,95218,93621,14920,96321,80919,22218,91019,90920,54124,22122,16315,304

1864JFMAMJJAS0ND

57,10772,00088,81788,15860,56963,40157,34757,20169,42568,53180,63278,189

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A254 APPENDIX

TABLE 27—(Continued)PART I

BANE CLEARINGS IN NEW YORIC CITY

1865 1869 1873J 83,596 J 90,562 J 102,428

F 77,356 F 92,818 F 113,816M 78,351 M 106,585 M 106,062A 54,010 A 112,583 A 109,517M 70,397 M 116,750 M 89,665J 67,842 J 115,208 J 76,048J 68,809 J 97,592 J 76,901A 66,225 A 81,659 A 66,704S 61,827 S 111,103 S 78,5980 82,425 0 83,277 0 50,139N 75,193 N 83,504 N 49,927

D 63,932 D 77,455 D 63,357

1866 1870 1874J 76)722 J 76,236 J 73,673

F 71,126 F 72,649 F 65,797M 82,195 M 76,204 lvi 68,211A 79,092 A 73,624 A 73,658M 87,979 M 88,642 M 64,952J 87,981 J 76,820 J 66,368J 74,395 J 82,921 J 61,424

A 81,571 A 60,438 A 50,268S 81,060 S 61,718 S 64,075o 111,500 0 69,871 0 73,286N 115,803 N 71,004 N 69,343

D 81,344 D 79,787 D 72,844

1867 1871

J 78,541 J 73,603F 67,325 F 69,115M 68,338 M 90,485A 70,713 A 100,267M 71,544 M 94,817J 64,479 J 93,915J 71,823 J 63,393A 62,936 A 67,489S 74,780 S 89,585O 79,783 0 96,795N 73,078 N 78,987D 64,927 D 88,429

1868 1872J 82,613 J 97,114F 82,665 F 84,854M 87,106 M 100,196A 83,275 A 118,178M 73,314 M 109,595J 81,547 3 83,210J 73,268 J 72,241A 75,138 A 86,032S 77,647 S 93,6640 109,223 0 125,061N 106,118 N 113,184D 89,817 D 108,528

Page 256: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS, PIG IRON AND PRICES A255

TABLE 27—(Continued)PART II

1 2 3 4 5 6Date Clear. Def. Cl. Clear. Pig Snyder's B. of L.

N. Y. outs. N. Y. outs. N. Y. Iron Prices Prices

1875J 74,771 33,118 30,800 93F 69,180 31,447 29,246 93M 73,398 35,643 33,148 93A 75,580 32,452 30,180 93M 70,667 31,736 29,197 92J 71,148 36,340 33,433 92J 63,997 30,553 27,803 91A 50,041 31,793 28,932 91S 59,765 29,520 26,863 91O 62,576 33,043 29,739 90N 63,700 39,970 35,573 89D 64,903 33,113 29,471 89

1876J 65,211 35,727 31,797 89F 65,210 32,433 28,541 88M 62,152 36,067 31,739 88A 55,490 30,394 26,747 '88M 57,309 32,369 28,161 87J 55,075 34,583 30,087 87J 48,948 30,041 25,835 86A 50,461 32,292 27,771 86S 57,329 30,267 26,030 86o 65,040 33,709 28,990 86N 59,195 36,992 31,813 86D 62,908 34,576 29,735 86

1877J 68,563 34,241 29,790 4.71 87F 69,556 32,691 28,114 4.78 86M 63,897 33,586 28,548 4.83 85A 68,174 31,282 26,590 4.85 85M 63,720 35,373 29,713 4.80 84J 61,244 29,889 25,107 4.72 84J 60,332 29,831 25,058 4.70 84A 61,868 30,215 25,381 4.74 84S 61,571 31,301 25,980 4.84 83O 73,369 35,029 29,074 5.00 83N 64,647 37,622 30,850 5.20 82D 65,800 34,107 27,968 5.43 82

1878J 64,971 39,237 32,174 5.70 82F 53,924 30,062 25,079 5.90 81M 59,963 29,175 23,632 5.98 81A 67,364 30,272 24,520 5.90 81M 60,646 32,790 26,232 5.76 80J 57,211 29,796 23,837 5.63 80J 59,666 33,359 26,687 5.45 80A 56,542 28,121 22,497 5.32 80S 55,074 31,966 25,573 5.25 800 71,310 38,730 30,984 5.32 80N 67,841 33,725 26,980 5.40 80D 61,307 32,625 25,774 5.47 79

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A256 APPENDIX

TABLE 27—( Continued)PART II

DateI

Clear.N. Y.

2Def. Cl.

outs. N. Y

3Clear.

outs. N.Y

4l'igIron

Snyder'sPrices

UB.ofL.Prices

70,98568,29660,83068,34178,89863,08865,60874,29076,938

114, 187117,142101, SSG

37,20834,00131,65837,77234,72435,39238,32531,71535,54150,43546,44445,099

29,39426,86125,01029,84027,43227,96030,277.25,05528,43340,34837,62036,981

5.515.545.585.635.745.986.406.847.317.838.338.83

797079797979797980808182

104,572100,868111,972112,520107,50197,80883, 98477,41289,841

104,520135,766139,434

47,80843,29444,27044,92541,78841,24141,22839,23940,73545,35051,35453,111

39,75535,93437,18737,73734,68434,23034,21932,56834,21738,09443,13744,613

1879J

FMAMJJAS0ND

1880JFI\1AMJJAS0ND

18813FMA

33AS0ND

1 8S2JFMAM3JAS0ND

9.259.599.759.749.509.078.608.458.608.899.159.42

838384848383838384848484

152,117155,450135,559123,535157,457140, 53S

125,335114,704113,833138,106129,056137,633

51,35949,21447,15449,20852,51658,15047,00252,77953,86053,82156,92056,940

43,65541,83240,08141,82744,63049,43339,95245,39046,32051,17449,52048,968

9.719.93

10.039.979.809.649.499.449.549.699.95

10.36a

8585858585858081;

878786

139,159126,737143,956130,254103,850111,563114,336120,181134,573141.442

125,641

53,85249,54349,03350,66350,38651,45351,001

48,35752,87256,14458,26754,744

46,31342,60742,10843,57043,33244,25043,86141,58745,47048,28449,52746,532

10.9811.3411:2511 .0310.8010.5710.3010.2410.4811.1511 .3611.83

868686868386868686868585

Page 258: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS, PIG IRON AND PRICES A257

TABLE

Date

27—.(Continued)PART II

2 3Def.

outs.Cl.

N. YClear.

outs. N.

1Clear.

Y

4PigIron

5Snyder's

Prices

6B.ofL.Prices

1883JFMA.MJJAS0ND

106,738107,05899,838

102,846103,388100,40188,88196,168

101,400123,60496,329

104,202

56,62652,00851,79950,76853,81855,96452,28150,51751,59059,31656,88057,188

48,13244,20744,02943,15345,74547,01043,91641,92942,82049,23247,21046,894

12.0012.0211.8811.4911.1811.0811.0410.9810.9210.7710.6210.38

858585858584848383838382

1884JFMAMJJAS0ND

109,125102,33692,74796,744

107,39479,89070,32066,12268,54976,47969,86476,739

57,04151,72050,86055,67556,03049,16348,25844,21047,15953,24649,80154,324

46,77442,41041,19745,09745,38439,33038,60635,36837,72742,59739,34342,916

9 949.679.82

10.2210.4510.5910.7410.239.859.90

10.099.44

828281818180808080807979

1885JFMAMJJAS0ND

70,49667,86464,92862,26664,44664,07776,64865,84270,048

102,895110,632104,464

I-53,76546,39246,57050,89548,37152,66753,12745,82750,74760,36361,57062,319

42,47436,65036,79040,20737,72941,08041,43935,74539,58347,68748,64049,232

9.059.80

10.109.909.719.609.849.909.80

10.2311 .2012.10

797979797878787878797979

1886JFMAMJJAS0ND

92,75998,05493,71280,69977,75391,13979,87279,16786,860

104,784106,065116,741

58,35856,17158,31056,53255,39960,77260,82055,02759,75166,43269,38470,473

46,10344,37546,06544,66043,76548,01048,04843,47147,20352,48154,81355,674

12.1911 .9612.8114.2315.0315.3015.1314.7814.8815.3915.6315.84

797979797979797979797979

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A258 APPENDIX

TABLE 27—( Continued)PART II

Date

1887J 95,571 65,426 51,032 16.26 78F 88,331 62,738 48,936 16.54 78M 91,495 68,673 54,252 16.71 79A 101,096 70,228 55,480 17.03 79M 90,024 69,306' 54,752 14.6.5 79J 98,848 75,744 59,080 12.13 78J 83,717 66,468 51,845 12.97 78A 80,449 62,754 48,948 15.42 78S 89,429 67,017 52,273 17.57 78O 96,095 72,486 56,539 18.35 78N 97,727 75,785 59,870 18.47 79D 88,399 70,984 56,077 17.97 79

1888J 81,328 68,334 53,984 1626 79F 76,333 65,216 51,521 1459 79M 76,967 63,148 49,8S7 14.48 79A 85,745 67,186 53,077 15.17 79M 87,969 70,000 55,300 15.61 79J 78,544 69,109 54,607 15.23 79J 75,622 66,982 52,916 15.19 79A 77,828 64,451 51,501 16.00 80S 89,313 66,571 53,257 16.70 80O 103,043 82,181 65,745 17.58 80N 90,541 76,075 60,860 18.73 80D 90,023 75,875 60,700 19.65 80

1889J 99,023 77,270 61,816 19.55 80F 06,258 72,116 57,693 19.18 80M 93,218 71,056 56,845 19.23 80A 91,667 72,484 57,987 18.77 80M 09.364 75,456 60,365 17.94 80J 102,379 74,654 59,723 17.67 80J 93,629 76,504 61,203 18.03 80A 88,660 68,678 54,942 18.18 80S 89,996 70,521 56,417 18.75 80O 116,702 85,008 68,726 20.18 80N 106,806 83,534 66,827 21.43 80D 102,062 81,243 64,994 22.16 80

1890J 105,025 85,823 68,658 54.7F 100,767 78,139 62,511 54.8M 91,062 78,649 62,919 55.0A 97,453 85,250 68,200 55.1M 122,211 91,460 73,168 55.6J 105,288 86,621 69,297 55.4J 91,392 86,399 69,119 55.7A 95,488 79,476 63,581 57.8S 103,067 85,066 68,053 58.40 115,050 97,113 77,690 58.1N 111,699 93,275 73,687 57.1D 02,499 68,661. 56.6

1Clear.N.Y.

2Def. Cl.

outs. N. Y.

:3

Clear.outs. N. Y.

4PigIron

5Snyder'sPrices

6B.ofb.Prices

22.6723.2323.7724.0224.2423.9222.9422.6523.4923.8524.0723.07

808080808080808080807979

Page 260: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS, PIG IRON AND PRICES

TABLE 27—(Continued)PART II

Date

1891JFMAMJJAS0ND

1892JFMAMJJAS0ND

1893

FMAMJJAS0ND

1894jF.MAMJJAS0ND

1Clear.N.Y.

95,38782,30578,90796,53093,76684,85079,93977,532

110, 751)

105,87498,276

105,130

114,471111,637105,182102,51796,13493,56883,17381,74992,61699,306

106,041116,202

114,886109,532104,861

93,54598,56487,53077,20763,16261,37371,91575,22871,466

69,85761,57366,09067,27867,52163,28659,46560,37462,16873,59774,71675,365

2Def. Cl.

outs. N. Y.

87,03979,98677,41985,61682,40583,08683,05477,94589,76995,83092,95802,809

91,07891,09687,95889,84888,58494,97189,02086,26890,794

101,249103,667104,324

• 102,53295,71094,30196,36897,97387,65878,51462,54268,82580,56884,99184,099

85,08873,89176,84779,34382,25080,38876,38677,32378,32891,63991,10490,288

3Clear.

outs. N. Y.

68,76163,18961,16167,63765,10064,80765,48460,79770,02075,70672,50773,319

71,95271,96669,48770,98069,98175,02770,32668,15271,72779,98781,89782,416

81,00075,61173,55575,16775,43967,49759,67147,53252,30761,23264,59363,074

63,81655,41857,63559,50760,86559,48756,52657,21957,96367,81367,41766,813

4PigIron

19.9517.3715.0913.9216.2420.5323.0423.5524.5625.9326.4926.28

25.8125.8625.5524.4723 .42

22.9322.0720.9921.2022.6223.8423.05

23.5423.7624.3324.7024.4522.5717.9513.0110.6510.4912.4513.99

14.1615.1017.2017.2112.4410.6114.4319.1121.5622.3623.5023.70

5Snyder's

Prices

797979797978787878797879

797979797979797979797979

797978787777767676767675

— —

7575757474747474747474

6B.ofL.Prices

56.156.657.858.257.555.855,555.454.854.654.353.8

52.752.451.650.550.850.751.952.452.553.054.055.0

56.657.256.255.655.053.251.950.352.052.951.250.4

49.648.647.547.347.047.247.548.349.648.247.947.5

Page 261: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A260 APPENDIX

TABLE 27—(Continued)PART II

Date1

Clear.N. Y.

2Def. Cl.

outs. N. Y.

3Clear.

outs. N. Y.

4PigIron

5Snyder'sPrices

6B. of L.Prices

1895J 77,248 91,809 67,939 23.09 74 47.2F 66,587 78,118 57,807 22.14 74 46.9M 72,282 82,009 60,687 21.62 74 47.2A 79,116 88,923 65,803 21.45 74 49.6M 91,415 91,325 68,494 21.35 75 50.1J 82,695 89,284 66,963 22.44 75 50.4J 81,538 91,815 68,861 24.31 75 50.0A 74,736 82,172 61,629 26.47 75 49.5S 79,100 84,013 63,010 28.35 75 49.0O 94,633 103,901 77,926 30.12 75 49.4N 86,440 100,036 75,027 31.21 75 49.0D 93,868 99,011 73,268 30.37 74 48.3

1896J 82,659 93,418 69,129 28.81 74 48.0F 81,828 84,278 62,366 27.33 74 47.5M 74,718 82,750 61,235 26.43 74 46.9A 79,782 89,239 66,037 26.30 74 46.7M 75,487 85,972 63,619 25.76 74 46.0J 80,479 88,405 65,420 24.89 74 45.5J 80,013 86,990 63,503 22.96 73 45.1A 63,586 72,992 53,284 19.33 73 45.1S 68,768 78,178 57,070 16.13 73 45.3O 84,317 90,166 66,723 15.85 74 46.6N 89,562 90,347 66,857 18.14 74 48.1D 85,675 93,409 69,123 20.73 74 47.6

1897J 83,527 86,696 64,155 22.36 74 46.7F 73,040 82,384 60,964 23.24 74 46.3M 77,004 82,785 61,261 24.07 74 46.3A 74,992 87,068 64,430 24.30 74 45.8M 74,682 84,093 62,229 24.12 74 45.5J 85,718 89,149 65,970 23.71 74 45.0J 91,417 89,638 66,332 23.40 74 45.3A 94,738 86,308 63,868 24.78 74 47.1S 115,078 97,747 73,310 27.18 75 48.5O 107,614 102,431 76,823 29.22 75 48,1N 104,048 106,193 78,583 30.80 74 47.9D 115,754 106,211 79,658 31.59 75 48.1

1898J 119,042 103,824 77,868 31.65 75 48.0F 125,580 100,795 75,596 31.96 75 48.6M 110,258 99,480 74,610 32.16 75 48.8A 95,631 98,572 72,943 32.00 74 48.9M 101,465 98,008 73,506 31.39 75 51.8J 108,862 103,257 77,443 30.53 75 48.3J 96,033 91,264 68,448 29.65 75 48.0A 113,283 03,101 69,826 29.55 75 48.0S 113,799 96,303 72,227 30.37 75 47.8o 114,137 107,208 80,406 31.58 75 47.7N 132,454 114,070 86,693 32.90 76 48.0D 150,076 119,414 90,755 33.61 76 48.3

Page 262: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS, PIG IRON AND PRICES

TABLE 27—(Continued)PART II

1 2Date Clear. Def. Cl.

N. Y. outs. N. Y.

A261

3Clear.

outs. N. Y.

4PigIron

5Snyder'sPrices

6B.ofL.Prices

183,572162,523190,390185,897178,215159,340142,592140,592146,66516.9,566165,098172,525

121,496116,730122,513119,688120,050120,594113,884108,734116,756128,279127,184125,960

93,55289,88294,33593,35793,63994,06389,96885,90092,237

102,623101,747100,768

33.5932.4732 .9634.4034.9235.7836.7137.1638.1139.6440.9641.42

777777787878797979so8080

48.049.749.850.650.751.351.953.054.6.55.455.856.7

150,470140,948155,983157,208144,427129,140114,571102,719105,217147,620190,135101,843

122,067112,814114,353116,744116,130118,300110,832104,694105,909124,799127,796126,928

98,87491,37992,62694,56394,06595,82389,77483,75584,727

101,087104,793104,081

1899JFMAMJJAS0ND

1900JFMAMJJAS0ND

1901JFMAMJJAS0ND

1902JFMAMJJAS0ND

41.5241.5140.9641.0541.4840.4536.5532.8231.3230.2230.7633,38

818181818181818080818282

57.057.357.357.256.155.5.55.855.756 . 1

55,3.55.45.5. 1

238,745200,843222,157287,896300,820228,693196,1911.59,017168,238191,952212,271203,735

134,323122,752126,262141,248140,152

., 134,205131,434122,363120,792143,339142,250138,054

110,145100,657103,535115,823116,326111,390109,090101,561100,257118,971119,490115,965

37.4340.4241.1441.7543.0043 .6544.1043.4243.6744.5945.4040.

828282828383838383838484

55.254.754.554.454.154.154.555.456.156.156.657.7

223,531191,034177,643245,088219,539165,572212,698187,643226,819241,834217,976198,905

147,773132,029133,740146,289140,182131,141140,046122,418135,655149,378141,864143,901

124,129110,904112,342122,883119,155111,470119,039104,055115,307128,465122,003123,755

46.3844.9246.6149.1849.7748.2346.5147.3647.2947.7747.7649.59

848484848585858585868686

56.856.756.557.458.358.859.158.058.763.260.761.5

Page 263: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A262 APPENDIX

TABLE 27—( Continued)PART II

1Clear.N.Y.

2Def. Cl.

outs. N. Y.

.3Clear.

outs. N. Y.

6B. ofL.Prices

231,810187,186193,684198,146179,839191,550192,832150,472143,049168,816153,597177,343

150,210135,944136,129144,663136,384146,183143,623125,337134,520151,763141,659146,163

129,181118,271118,432124,410117,290125,717123,516107,790115,687130,516121,827125,700

47.5149.6751.3153.6155.2855.7749.8850.6851.7945.9934.6527.31

868787868686868686868686

62.662.060.360.059.0.59.058.658.859.5.58.758.358.2

183,598152,752154,967159,688156,221152,350167,560150,181178,490241,189277,922274,224

144,513135,477138,117140,337130,187139,073133,751129,3171,39,108153,875164,241162,255

124,281116,510118,781120,690111,961119,603115,026111,213119,633133,871142,890142,784

29.8041.6746.8252.0449.5843.1936.1637.8345.2646.9449.5552.13

1903JFIv'AMJJAS0ND

1904JFMAMJJAS0ND

1905JFMAMJJAS0ND

1906JFMAMJJAS0ND

868686868686868686878788

59.760.760.559.358.558.458.5.59.259.859.960.761.1

249,507254,226281,658289,360254,324224,510220,614225,186228,649258,903284,7.55312,565

154,443146,826157,195157,295156,778158,276149,518145,592152,730168,792174,770174,857

135,910129,207138,332138,420137,965139,283133,071129,577137,457151,913157,293157,371

57.4857.0562.4664.0763.3559.7856.1959 .4763.3266.2367.1265.99

888888888888898990909090

60.661.060360.459.359.359.460.159.659.960. 161.0

362,522297,301270,234284,775283,646260,540234,082284,942277,128301,421286,933297,675

185,831167,673168,852164,238162,088167,069160,174155,491156,533187,801186,151178,566

169,106152,582153,655149,457147,500152,033145,758143,052144,010172,777173,120167,852

66.7468.0069.8669.1167.7065.8964.9562.1565.7070.8772.9272.11

919191919191919292929394

61.160.860.661.161.361.359.761.261.762.863.664.3

Page 264: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS, PIG IRON AND PRICES

TABLE 27—( Continued)PART II

1Date Clear.

N.Y.

A263

Def. Cl. Clear.

1907JFMAMJJAS0ND

B.ofL.Prices

310,893261,839308,460255,584236,608212,306235,864222,274201,008264,387183,358172,579

189,914174,377178,648180,926177,814173,539177,410163,665164,574198,758154,688145,908

178,519163,914167,929170,070167,145163,127166,765153,845154,700184,845142,31.3134,235

71.1573.0471.8273.8974.0574.4972.7672.5972.7875.3960.9439.82

049494949404049494939292

64.064.964.364.565.666.166 . 1

66 . 1

66.566.964.663.2

1908JFMAMJJAS0ND

217,751168,829177,453182,919215,156188,462213,486200,811226,083233,364273,034298,912

165,060147,740154,757158,232149,902155,942161,148144,004160,141175,375177,040181,117

151,855135,921140,829145,573137,910141,907146,645132.484147,330161,345162,877168,439

33.7237.1639.6238.3237.6036.4039.2943.8747.3050.5652.6056.16

929291929291919292929293

62.361.461.862.262.262.663.163.063.363.564.1(34.8

1909JFMA

J

AS0ND

286,590245,961241,510287,158261,169303,723268,379280,208282,612324,269302,121319,572

181,769170,269180,673184,534170,868181,359170,183167,879180,161200,371201,479203,105

169,045158,350168,026171,617160,616170,477168,432157,806171,153190,352193,420194,981

57.9960.9859.1057 .9660.7564.3667.85725579.5183 .8684.9285.02

930303939494049495950606

64.664.965.266.267.367.867.968.268.970.270.971.6

1910JFI\'IAMJJAS0ND

362,874291,112291,812278,059251,834278,811254,151208,460207,701254,971260,477258,865

200,649186,801201,330197,512180,013189,677184,005170,079178,835198,460201,446201,082

192,623179,329195,290191,587174,613183,987176,645164,077173,470192, 5Q6195,403193,039

84.1585.6284.4582.7977.1075.5269.3167 .9668 .5467. .5263,6657.35

060697979797969797970796

71.471.372.973.272.071.071.070.869.967.966.466.6

Page 265: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A264 APPENDIX

TABLE 27—(Continued)PART II

Clear.N.Y.

2Def. CI.

6B. ofL.Prices

275,202260,541245,858232,328256,730273,884242,446238,199239,499242,265269,129261,671

201,371184,068195,518189,604187,950193,972185,594176,405187,209200,389206,020202,232

193,316178,546189,652182,020180,432188,153180,026171,113181,593196,381201,900198,187

56.7564.0970.0468.8061.0859.5957.8462.1566.5767.8166.6565.91

969797960697079707989898

66.164.464.763.363.063.063.965.566.166,265.965.3

285,019252,161271,514294,339283,219265,369255,519241,493247,762327,065293,994284,152

207,667197,917200,104208,267198,184192,327197,861187,923191,530227,853219,053215,190

205,590195,938198,103208,267198,184192,327197,861187,923191,530230,132222,153215,190

66.3872.4477.5979,1881.0581.3677.7781.0582.1386.7787.7089.77

1911JFMAMJJAS0ND

1912JFMAMJJAS0ND

1913JFMA'VIJJAS0ND

1914JFMAMJJAS0ND

990999

100100100100100100101101100

66.066.767.569.770.069.068.969.770.570.870.270.1

301,249278,379254,395268,511256,855258,451236,933218,136248, 53 1280,434252,896258,065

225.468210,704204,497210,640201,335203,283203,052184,074200,433227,493213,150219,129

225,468210,704204,497210,640201,335201,250203,052184,074202,437229,768213,150219,129

90.1792.3789.1591.7691.0487.6282.6082.1283.5382.1474.4463.99

10010010010010099

100100101101100100

706969696869696970707069

.3

.8

.9

.7

.9

.0

.5

.7

.6

.4

.1

.1

302,327258,485253,203284,884233,501261,473263,887147,781154,271180,950179,981210,635

222,894203,461209,106214,357193,587205,953206,132172,999180,399200,039193,629199,645

222,894203,461209,106214,357193,587205,953206,132174,729182,203200,039191,603199,645

60.8167.4575.7475.6767.5163.9363.1564.3662.7557.3650.6148.90

10010010010010010010010110110099

100

68.668.368.067.667.467.467.369.670.268.067.567.3

Page 266: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS, PIG IRON AND PRICES

TABLE 27—( Continued)PART II

Date1

Clear.N.Y.

A265

2 3Def. Cl. Clear.

outs. N. Y. outs. N. Y.

4PigIron

6B.ofL.Prices

235,086231,494244,036293,722278,553267,516280,498275,401320,812410,957394,314397,779

202,003196,018204,858206,858193,414203,366199,267181,497198,846225,849237,897240,887

202,003196,018204,858208,927195,348205,400203,252186,942206,800241,658254,550260,158

515966707379828995

100101103

.66

.81

.58

.55

.02

.3669

.67

.09

.82• 24..33

68.168.668.268.769.068.369.368.668.370.271.774.0

397,639382,991404,770387,420405,191418,451368,992379,591478,531506,813555,112546,310

229,516223,653234,419227,120231,307235,235224,477222,272236,522265,312269,323263,589

252,468248,255264,894258,917263,690270,520258,148260,058283,827323,681339,347334,758

100100100101101101102103104107107108

110111113114114115115117120122126127

.64

.47

.88

.17

.24

.00

.82

.77

.47

.55

.86.00

102.75106 .46107.67107.59108.42107.05104.02103.35106.75113.19110.39102.54

1915JFMAMJJAS0ND

1916JFMAMJJAS0ND

1917JFMAMJJAS0ND

19183FMAMJJAS0ND

77.078.580.481.782.582.983.485.186.991.197.499.2

487,979456,931459,004488,408502,691569,969489,849473,526462, 797507,206494,473471,405

265,313243,066258,502254,272249,429249,998240,071236,899238,495285,284293,438269,366

339,600315,986341,223345,810346,706354,997338,500336,397338,663405,103413,747385,194

10194

104111110109107104104106106

93

128130132136139142141142142142141143

102.1104.5107.7114.1120.7122.0123.0124.8123.5122.2122.8122.9

474,809437,834446,460469,783501,926495,255496,813482,530455,462545,652520,194537,389

265,329244,838269,030277,497271,820271,839275,975269,853265,175302,089283,165278,694

382,074357,464395,474413,470410,448415,913427,761426,368424,280489,352458,727457,058

77 .8082.83

103.65109.61111.18110.79110.35109.34113.94112.48111.80110.76

144146147149151153155158160162162164

125.0122.7126.4128.3128.1129.0132.0134.3137.5136.3136.3136.3

Page 267: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A266 APPENDIX

TABLE 27—(Continued)PART II

1Clear.N.Y.

2Def. Cl.

outs. N. Y.

3Clear.

outs. N. Y.

4PigIron

SSnyder's

Prices

6B.ofL.Prices

576,150 288,294 49,919to individual acc'ts"

584,484517,571

332,674303,261

542,258488,250

538,645577,433

308,085312,256

499,097512,100

655,806719,000

322,523345,902

538,613588,033

723,452654,065

345.365323,827

600,935569,935

681,533781,484

342,538366,944

602,867653,161

778,367801,935

353,315380,522

639,500700,161

106.53105.0199.6982.6168.0070.5078.3488.50

60.1279.7584.94

163161162164167170174176176178181184

134.4129,8131.3133.0135.3135.6141.1144.3141.1141.6144.5150.5

Date

1919J1919JFMAMJJAS0ND

1920JFMAMJJAS0ND

1921JFMAMJJAS0ND1922JFMAMJJAS0ND

97.26102.72108.9091.3396.31

101.4598.94

101.53104.31106.2197.8387.22

188189192196

° 198199198195

192187180

157.7157.1158.6165.5167.2166.5165.8161.4155.2144.2133.4120.7

762,452622,552718,871710,667631,645660,200614,935560,355586,667649,581672,367722,839

646,226540,357559,774544,967553,903591,833527,097489,871536,733568,065583,067663,710

615,000590,821657,968690,567698,516735,433635,903589,903640,500720,065634,233672,613

372,872323,554355,276345,646320,501344,070338,954312,721338,103350,991348,039368,101

327,975303,135314,042317,086301,770326,173305,948300,625325,430339,075334,360356,186

328,350323,548344,121334,851333,238362,299331,569319,536344,854369,124352,531387,611

701,000611,517682,129677,467634,710684,700671,129609,806659,300673,903650,833662,581

580,516521,393533,871529,533494,903528,400489,516481,000517,433539,129531,633562,774

512,226501,500533,387522,367526,516572,433527,194511,258551,767594,290571,100631,806

77.9569.1951.4739.7739.3935.4927.8930.7832.8540.2247.1853.20

177172170167164162160160159159159158

114.0104.9102.498.996.293.493.493.593.494.194.292.9

53.0658.2165.6869.0774.4178.7077.5958.5967.7985.0994.9999.58

156155155156158158159160160161162163

91.492.992.893.296.196.399.498.699.399.6100.5100.7

Page 268: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS, PIG IRON AND PRICES A267

TABLE 27—( Continued)PART II

1 2 3Debits Def. Deb. DebitsN.Y.

4PigIron

5Snyder'sPrices

6B. ofL.Prices

389,194368,162384,047380,121376,370392,209355,504338,358348,707383,968371,008305,783

634,387603,786633,677627,200624,774651,067586,581558,290575,367637,387617,367657,000

104.18106.94113.67118.32124.76122.55118.66111.27104.18101 .5996.489423

163164165165166166165165165166166166

102 .0103.3104.5103.9101.9100,398.497.899.799.498.498. 1

374,425361,594372,969381,111364,399372,032364,848345,433368,444408,837378,434419,163

Date

1923JFMAMJJAS0ND

1924JFMAMJJAS0ND

1925JFMA

JJAS0ND

1926JFMAMJJAS0ND

625,290603,862619,129628,833601,258610,133602,000573,419607,933674,581628,200704,194

971061111078467576068798395

.38.03.81.78.36.54.58.88.44.0166.54

167167166165165164165166165165166168

712,484679,250727,129682,633667,871701,367591,000522,226559,967617,806666,100712,200

713,355685,724695,032688,467690,516730,867692,548674,710691,133726,000768,233881,516

892,968818,714851,032798,167844,484897,667821,226750,484812,300932,774900,300977,839

985,097886,179

1,064,710976,667857,129939,867892,226846,226853,933927,581850,667

1,050,871

99.699.798.597.395.994.995.697.097.198.299. 1.

101..5

425,673392,921405,42140S,988392,032425,529409,488374,816407,310450,844411,503449,095

719,387664,036685,161687,100658,613723,400696,129640,935696,500775,452711,900776,935

108114114108948985879097

100104

.72

.79

.98

.63

.54

.12

.94

.24

.87'53.77.85

169169169168168170170171171172173173

102.9104.0104.2101.9101.6103.0104.3103.9103.4103.6104.5103.4

440,183417,401442,520439,318404,622418,109430,540391,964413,488448,595418,469462,045

761,516717,929756,710751,233691,903714,967751,613670,258711,200767,097719,767790,097

106.97104.41111.03115.00112.30107 .84103.98103.24104.54107.55107.8999.71

173172171171171171171171172171172171

103.2102.0100.6100.3100.5100.499.599.199.799.498.497.9

Page 269: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A268 APPENDIX

TABLE 27—( Continued)PART ii:

1 2 3 4 5 6Date Debits Def. Deb. Debits Pig Snyder's B. of L.

N. Y. outs. N. Y. outs. N. Y. Iron Prices Prices

1927J 1,008,323 445,085 756,645 100.12 170 06.5F 979,064 436,576 742,179 105.02 170 95.8M 1,112,645 455,901 775,032 112,37 170 04.7A 1,066,900 465,010 785,867 114.07 169 94.1M 1,008,710 434,023 737,839 109.39 170 04.2J 1,100,267 464,171 793,733 102.99 171 94.1J 991,935 435,142 739,742 95.20 170 94.3A 1,021,065 415,922 711,226 95.07 171 95.2S 1,112,300 450,501 779,367 92.50 173 06.3O 1,099,710 468,227 810,032 89.81 173 96.6N 1,109,400 458,632 793,433 88.28 173 06.3D 1,256,065 491,342 854,935 86.96 174 96.4

1928J 1,222,065 466,176 806,484 02,57 173 96.4F 1,128,966 433,625 750,172 100.00 173 95.8M 1,444,710 479,180 833,774 103.22 174 05.5A 1,392,600 480,476 840,833 106.18 175 96.6M 1,460,323 480,153 849,871 105.93 177 97.5J 1,515,167 511,013 900,967 102.73 176 96.7J 1,131,774 437,995 770,871 99.09 176 97.4A 1,132,323 428,904 754,871 101.18 176 97.6S 1,290,833 457,865 815,000 102.08 178 98.6O 1,457,710 504,921 893,710 108.83 177 96.7N 1,515,633 484,644 862,667 110.08 178 95.8D 1,700,871 537,496 956,742 108.71 178 95.8

1929J 1,765,129 506,866 907,290 111.04 179 05.9F 1,653,179 489,126 875,536 114.51 179 95.4M 1,787,903 504,140 907,452 119.82 180 06.1A 1,599,300 499,125 893,433 122.09 179 95.5M 1,614,290 477,924 855,484 125.75 179 94.7J 1,442,100 492,141 880,933 123.91 179 95.2

J 1,587,581 506,933 917,548 122.10 181 96.5A 1,581,742 502,286 914,161 121.15 182 96.3S 1,678,067 497,523 910,467 116.59 183 96.1O 2,042,742 574,960 1,040,677 115.75 181 95.1N 1,786,800 546,341 950,633 106.05 174 03.5D 1,285,484 499,295 868,774 91 .51 174 93 .3

1930J 1,120,387 476,882 829,774 91.21 174 92.5F 1,111,321 444,550 769,071 101.39 173 91.4M 1,314,194 466,418 806,903 104.72 173 00.2A 1,287,700 466,418 811,567 106.06 174 90.0M 1,207,194 457,914 787,613 104.28 172 88.8J 1,256,333 486,134 821,567 97.80 169 86.8J 954,839 447,576 747,452 85.15 167 84.4A 808,129 407,423 676,323 81.42 166 84.3

S 912,767 424,211 708,433 75.89 167 84.40 992,935 469,028 764,516 69.83 163 83.0

N 749,667 407,868 656,667 62.24 161 81.3

D 935,516 471,764 745,387 53.73 158 79.6

Page 270: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS, PIG IRON AND PRICES

TABLE 27—(Continued)PART II

Date DebitsN.Y.

A289

2Def. Deb.

792,161748,143889,968894,033808,774863,100677,645564,548669,100667,032482,133620,419

445,798388,626399,034421,935397,597431.245399,307357,783377,029406,003338,078394,286

699,903610,143626,484654,000608,323646,867594,968533,097554,233584,645486,833552,000

55.3060.9565.5667 .3264.3354.6247 .2041.3138.9637.8536.7831.63

157157157155153150149149147144144140

78.276.876.074.873.272.172.072.171.270.370.268.6

570,194495,897521,290518,600416,548473,400410,581434,129472,1004.17,548327,167450,548

371,505326,318323,264357,338305,425333,359312,853287,317297,172304,211280,385323,084

512,677443,793442,871478,833403,161430,033403,581.379,258392,267398,51.6364,500413,548

1931JFMAMJJAS0ND

1932JFMAMJ3AS0ND

1933JFMAM3JAS0ND

19343FMAMJJAS0ND

31.3833.2531.2028.4325.2820.9418.4617.1219.7520 .8021.0417.62

138136137134132129129132132131130128

67.366.366.065.564.463.964.565.265.364.463.962.6

400,419429,857

*

450,871558,100559,806421,806411,333428,387406,800419,774

306,146299,568

285,377292,329337,709339,149302,420306,141315,959298,923324,731

388,806371

*

353,867371,258432,267447,677399,194407,167420,226397,567428,645

18.3519.8017 .4820.7928.6242.1757.8259,1450.7443.7536.1738.13

127124123124127128132132133133133132

615960606265686970717170

.0

.8

.2

.4

.7

.0

.9

.5.8.2.1.8

452,355472,536503,484565,133472,677512,933446,516396,290374,067396,323378,100490,774

320,107309,454333,895343,163338,638358,978325,152313,721309,041335,670319,262361,774

420,857454,097470,133460,548491,800448,710432,935429,567466,581446,967506,484

39.2045.1352.2457.5665.9064.3439.5134.0129.9430.6831.9033.15

133136136137136137138138139139140140

72.273.673.773.373.774.674.876.477.676.576.576.9

*Not available, complete data not having been reported on account of bank holidaya.

Page 271: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A270 APPENDIX

TABLE 27—(Concluded)PART II

DateI

DebitsN.Y.

Def.outs.

2Deb.N.Y.

3Debits

outs. N. Y.

4Pig

Iron

5Snyder'sPrices

6B.ofL.Prices

1935JFMAMJJAS0ND

483,806448,179512,742530,167469,387522,233539,903475,225467,133507,516518,067570,452

344,635331,514362,594369,625353,14.7368,380370,568345,647343,016369,703375,884407,361

485,935470,750511,258524,867505,000530,467537,323504,645504,233547,1.61560,067606,968

47.0657.4557.1055.4555.7151.7549.0456 .8259 .2263 .8268.8667.95

141142141142143144145146147148149149

78.879.579.480.180.279.879.480.580.780.580.680.9

1936

MAMJ

AS0ND

578,226545,034633,194576,167523,452620,767522,5484.63,290521,867553,903579,800730,903

339,914360,036381,671388,822365,549414,035389,966353,722375,769416,501389,768471,455

509,871543,655576,323583,233548,323629,333600,548551,806586,200649,742615,833749,613

65.3562.8965.8280.1285.4386.2183.6987.4891.0196.5198.25

100 48

150151151150150152154156156156158159

1937J

80,680.679.679.778.679.280.581.681.681.582.484.2

616,000 408,395 657,516 103 60 161 85.9

Page 272: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS A271

/ TABLE 28

DAILY AVERAGE BANK CLEARINGS IN NEW YORK CITY, MONTHLY,JANUARY 1857- J NUARY 1919, INcLusivE; DAILY AVERAGE

BANK DEBITS IN NEW YORK CITY, MONTHLY,JANUARY 1919 - JANUARY 1936

Col. 1. Logarithms of Data (in thousands of dollars) Adjusted forSeasonal Fluctuations.

Col. 2. Cyclical Curve (logarithms).Col. 3. Trend Curve (logarithms).Col. 4. Deviations of Cyclical Curve (logarithms) from Trend

Curve (logarithms).Col. 5. Changing Seasonal Fluctuations (logarithms).

For details of the nature of the graduations given in Columns 2 andand of the seasonal given in Column 5 of this table, see Appendix D.

Page 273: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A272 APPENDIX

TABLE 28

Date 1 2

BANK CLEARINGS IN NEW YORK CITY

3 4

4 . 3574.3764.35 74.3804.3634.3844.3874.3714.2203.9994.0224.043

1 2 3 4

4.38664.38844.38184. 36654. 34324. 31334. 27904. 24264. 20624. 17194. 14174. 1172

4. 25214. 25194.25164. 25 134.25094. 25064.25024.24994. 24974. 24934. 24884. 2482

4.1644.1844.1704.2214.3354.3644.3824.3584.4244.4984.4344.493

4. 18484. 20704.2 3254. 26074.29134. 32404. 35804.39254. 42 704. 46054. 49214.5214

4. 34794. 36004, 37244.38484. 39734.41094.42454. 43864. 45254.46134.48214. 4973

5

—.001+.009+ .030+.014+.018—.021—.038—.051—.017+ .045+.032—.019

—.1631—.1530—. 1399—.1241—.1060—.0869— .0665—.0461—.0255—.0068+.0100+.0241

4.0594.1014. 1434. 1424.1514.1704.1694.1694. 1754.2194.2384.240

4.09994.09094.09074.09874,11404.13444.15744.18034. 20104. 2 1814. 23074.2393

4. 24774. 24674.24574. 24464. 24384. 24204. 24054. 23894. 23724. 23524.23304.2306

4.6004.6244.5954.5864.6764.6304. 6484.7064.7394.7464.738.4.776

4.54834. 5 7294. 59604.61834.64034.66244.68484.70714.72854. 74864.76704.7836

4. 51284.52894.54494.56104. 5 7644. 59354. 60954. 62454.64064. 65614. 67194. 6875

+.0355+ .0440+ .0511+.0573+.0639+ .0689+.0753+.0826+.0879+.0925+.0951+.0961

+ .001+.008+ .030+.011+.017—.019— .039—.053—.016+.048+.032—. 019

1857JFMAM

AS0ND

185831?

MAM

AS0ND

1859JFMA

I1860

MAM

AS0ND

1861

MAM

AS0ND

4.2314.2414.2474.2854.2764.2494.2234.2474.2694.2504.2644.287

4. 24484.2481.4. 25024. 25 194. 25344. 25474. 25594. 25724. 25894. 26164.26604. 2721

4. 22814.22564. 22294. 22044. 21794. 2 1554. 21324. 21114. 20924. 20764. 20634. 2053

+.1345+.1365+. 1302+.1152+.0923+ .0627+ .0288— .0073—.0435—.0774—.1071—.1310

—.1478—.1558—.1550—.1459—.1298—.1076—.0831—.0586—.0362—.0171—.0023+.0087

+.0167+.0225+.0273+ .0315+.0355+.0392+.0427+.0461+ .0497+ .0540+.0597+.0668

+.0753+ .0849± .0946+.1032+.1095+.1128+.1117+.1055+ .0939+.0779+ .0571+.0330

+ .0064—.0215—.0497— .0766—.1014—.1238—.1424—.1569—.1669—.1723—.1730—.1701

5

—.017.000

+ .021+ .027+ .032—.004—.016—.037—.014—.001

+ .008—.006

—.015+ .004+.029+.026+ .031—.009—.025—.040—.015+.009+.014—.009

—.012+.007+.029+.024+ .029—.014— .030—.044—.016+.020+.020—.012

— .009+ .008+.030+ .021+.025—.018—.034—.047—.017+.032+.026—.015

—.005+.009+.030+.017+.022—.021—.036—.049—.017

+ .041+.029—.017

Date1862

JFMAMJJAS0ND

1863JFMAMJ3AS0ND

1864JFMAMJJAS0ND

1865JFMAMJJAS0ND

1866JFMAMJJAS0ND

4.7544.8524.9194.9354.7664.8184.7984.8124.8584.7874.8754.913

4. 79824.81124. 82274. 83234.84034. 84634.85014.85214. 85274, 85234.85164. 8509

4.70224.71684.73094. 74454.75794.77034. 78284. 79414. 80504. 81514. 82484. 8338

+ .0960+ .0944+.0918+.0878+.0824+ .0760+ .0673+ .0580+.0477+ .0372+.0268+.0171

+.003+ .005+ .030+.010+ .016—.016— .039—.054—.016

+ .049+ .032— .020

4.2874.2694.2954.3004.3 144.3024.3114.3464.3304.3524.3204.200

4. 27994. 28924. 29924. 30864. 31644. 32 154. 32284. 31964.31184. 29974. 28384.2651

4.20464. 20434. 20464.20544. 20694. 20874.2 1114.21414.21794. 22 184.22674.2321

4.9174.8874.8644.7234.8324.8454.8774.8774.8064.8684.8454.825

4.85054. 85024. 84974.84844. 84644. 84354. 84044. 83794. 83704. 83894. 84434. 8534

4. 84184. 84954.85624. 86274. 86824. 87344. 87794. 88194. 88544. 88874. 89144.8938

+ .0087+.0007—.0065—.0143—.0218—.0299—.0375—.0440—.0484—.0498— .0471— .0404

+.005+.002+.030+.009+.016—.013—. 039—.056—.015+.048+ .031—.019

4.2344.2224.2034.2 254,1314.'llO4.1444.1234.1264.1804.1924.216

4.24464. 22334. 20234. 18294. 16604.15224.14264. 13764.13754.14234. 15214.1664

4. 23824. 24484. 25204. 25954. 26744. 2 7604. 28504. 29454. 30444. 3 1464. 32514. 3365

4.8794.8544.8854.8874.9264.9534.9104.9704.9215.0015.0374.919

4. 86594. 88074. 89644. 91184. 92524. 93564. 94234. 94494. 94324. 93754.92844. 9163

4. 89604. 89804.29974. 90124. 90244. 903 74.90484. 90584.90664. 90744.90814.9088

—.0301—.0173—.0033+ .0106+.0228+ .0319+ .0375+.0391+.0366+.0301+ .0203+ .0075

+ .006—. 002+.030+ .011+.O18—.009—.038—.058—.013

+ .046+ .027—.019

Page 274: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS A273

TABLE 28—Continued

BANK CLEARINGS IN NEW YoRK CITY

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1867 1872J 4.889 4.9025 4.9095 —.0070 +.006 J 4.971 4.9493 4.9360 +.0133 +.016F 4.833 4.8879 4.9101 —.0222 —.005 F 4.933 4.9528 4.9349 +.0179 —.004M 4.805 4.8737 4.9108 —.0371 +.030 M 4.975 4.9584 4.9336 +.0248 +.026A 4.835 4.8612 4.9114 —.0502 +.015 A 5.030 4.9662 4.9322 +.0340 +.043M 4.835 4.8514 4.9119 —.0605 +.020 M 5.011 4.9756 4.9307 +.0449 +.029J 4.814 4.8450 4.9126 —.0676 —.005 J 4.921 4.9862 4.9291 +.0571 —.001J 4.893 4.8423 4.9131 —.0708 —.037 J 4.900 4.9976 4.9274 +.0702 —.041A 4.860 4.8431 4.9138 —.0707 —.061 A 5.008 5.0083 4.9256 +.0827 —.073S 4.886 4.8472 4.9142 —.0670 —.012 S 4.983 5.0174 4.9239 +.0935 —.0110 4.861 4.8537 4.9148 —.0611 +.041 0 5.078 5.0242 4.9219 +.1023 +.019N 4.842 4.8614 4,9152 —.0538 +.022 N 5.061 5.0276 4.9198 +.1078 —.007D 4.829 4.8697 4.9158 —.0461 —.017 D 5.033 5.0263 4.9176 +.1087 -I-.003

1868 1873J 4.913 4.8776 4.9163 —.0387 +.007 J 4.991 5.0202 4.9153 +.1049 +.019F 4.924 4.8847 4.9168 —.0321 —.007 F 5.057 5.0089 4.9127 +.0962 —.001M 4.911 4.8910 4.9172 —.0262 +.029 M 5.001 4.9921 4.9100 +.0821 +.025A 4.900 4.8968 4.9176 —.0208 +.021 A 4.995 4.9707 4.9072 +.0635 +.044lvi 4.842 4.9026 4.9180 —.0154 +.023 M 4.926 4.9461 4.9044 +.0417 +.027.T 4.912 4.9092 4.9184 —.0092 —.001 J 4.889 4.9193 4.9013 +.0180 —.004J 4.902 4.9174 4.9188 —.0014 —.037 J 4.929 4.8920 4.8981 —.0061 —.043A 4.939 4.9276 4.9192 +.0084 —.063 A 4.898 4.8661 4.8948 —.0287 —.074S 4.900 4.9398 4.9195 +.0203 —.010 S 4.908 4.8426 4.8913 —.0487 —.013o 5.004 4.9540 4.9198 +.0342 +.034 0 4.682 4.8227 4.8878 —.0651 +.018N 5.012 4.9692 4.9202 +.0490 +.014 N 4.706 4.8070 4.8840 —.0770 —.008D 4.968 4.9843 4.9205 +.0638 —.015 D 4.795 4.7961 4.8802 —.0841 +.007

1869 1874J 4.949 4.9981 4.9209 +.0772 +.008 J 4.843 4.7895 4.8761 —.0866 +.024F 4.976 5.0093 4.9213 +.0880 —.008 F 4.814 4.7872 4.8720 —.0848 +.004M 4.999 5.0161 4.9218 +.0943 +,029 M 4.811 4.7888 4.8678 —.0790 +.023A 5.024 5.0186 4.9222 +.0964 +.027 A 4.824 4.7931 4.8636 —.0705 +.043M 5.041 5.0165 4.9228 +.0937 +.026 M 4.788 4.7996 4.8595 —.0599 +.025J 5.060 5.0099 4.9233 +.0866 +.001 J 4.830 4.8075 4.8551 —.0476 —.008J 5.027 4.9994 4.9240 +.0754 —.038 3 4.832 4.8156 4.8508 —.0352 —.044A 4.978 4.9866 4.9248 +.0618 —.066 A 4.775 4.8230 4.8465 —.0235 —.074S 5.055 4.9716 4.9257 +.0459 —.009 S 4.824 4.8293 4.8422 —.0129 —.017o 4.893 4.9556 4.9266 +.0290 +.028 0 4.846 4.8340 4.8379 —.0039 +.019N 4.915 4.9388 4.9276 +.0112 +.007 N 4.808 4.8370 4.8337 +.0033 —.006D 4.900 4.9218 4.9287 —.0069 —.011 D 4.851 4.8387 4.8295 +.0092 +.011

1870 1875J 4.872 4.9053 4.9298 —.0245 +.010 3 4.845 4.8394 4.8253 +.0141 +.029F 4.869 4.8896 4.9309 —.0413 —.008 F 4.832 4.8393 4.8210 +.0183 +.008M 4.854 4.8757 4.9321 —.0564 +.028 lvi 4.844 4.8385 4.8169 +.0216 +.022A 4.832 4.8647 4.9333 —.0686 +.035 A 4.839 4.8372 4.8129 +.0243 +.039M 4.920 4.8567 4.9345 —.0778 +.028 lvi 4.828 4.8348 4.8087 +.0261 +.021j 4.883 4.8528 4.9358 —.0830 +.002 3 4.863 4.8310 4.8050 +.0260 —.011J 4.958 4.8524 4.9369 —.0845 —.039 J 4.851 4.8257 4.8013 +.0244 —.043A 4.850 4.8549 4.9379 —.0830 —.069 A 4.771 4.8188 4.7978 +0210 —.072S 4.799 4.8596 4.9387 —.0791 —.009 S 4.796 4.8102 4.7942 +.0160 —.0200 4.821 4.8658 4.9396 —.0738 +.023 0 4.775 4.8006 4.7912 +.0094 +.021N 4.850 4.8719 4.9403 —.0684 +.001 N 4.804 4.7907 4.7881 +.0026 .000D 4.908 4.8782 4.9409 —.0627 —.006 D 4.798 4.7811 4.7853 —.0042 +.014

1871 1876J 4.855 4.8844 4.9414 —.0570 +.012 3 4.782 4.7726 4.7826 —.0100 +.032F 4.847 4.8908 4.9418 —.0510 —.007 F 4.804 4.7658 4.7802 —.0144 +.010M 4.930 4.8977 4.9419 —.0442 +.027 M 4.774 4.7608 4.7782 —.0174 +.0!9A 4.961 4.9050 4.9419 —.0369 +.040 A 4.710 4.7577 4.7765 —.0188 +.034M 4.948 4.9129 4.9417 —.0288 +.029 M 4.741 4.7563 4.7750 —.0185 +.017J 4.972 4.9211 4.9416 —.0205 +.001 3 4.756 4.7568 4.7737 —.0153 4.846 4.9285 4.9412 —.0127 —.040 J 4.736 4.7585 4.7728 —.0143 —.046A 4.900 4.9349 4.9406 —.0057 —.071 A 4.772 4.7616 4.7721 —.0105 —.069S 4.962 4.9398 4.9398 .0000 —.010 S 4.781 4.7659 4.7717 —.0058 —0230 4.966 4.9431 4.9392 +.0039 +.020 0 4.787 4.7715 4.7716 —.0001 +.026N 4.902 4.9451 4.9383 +.0068 —.004 N 4.765 4.7783 4.7718 +.0065 +.007D 4.949 4.9469 4.9373 +.0096 —.002 D 4.782 4.7861 4.7722 +.0139 +.017

Page 275: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 276: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 277: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 278: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS A277

TABLE 28—Continued

BANE CLEARINGS IN NEW YORE CITY

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1907 1912J 5.437 5.4447 5.3986 +.0461 +.056 J 5.409 5.4162 5.4187 —.0025 +.046F 5.430 5.4389 5.3995 +.0394 —.012 F 5.410 5.4202 5.4167 +.0035 —.008M 5.491 5.4306 5.4002 +.0304 —.002 M 5.441 5.4250 5.4141 +.0109 —.007A 5.395 5.4190 5.4006 +.0184 +.013 A 5.461 5.4301 5.4114 +.0187 +.008M 5.376 5.4040 5.4009 +.0031. —.002 M 3.457 5.4353 5.4086 +.0267 —.005J 5.347 5.3863 5.4010 —.0147 —.020 J 5.422 5.4400 5.4061 +.0339 +.002J 5.394 5.3665 5.4009 —.0344 —.021 J 5.427 5.4440 5,4035 +.0405 —.020A 5.391 5.3455 5.4008 —.0553 —.044 A 5.430 5.4464 5.4011 +.0453 —.047S 5.338 5.3254 5.4005 —.0751 —.035 S 5.424 5.4473 5.3987 +.0486 —.0300. 5.394 5.3071 5.4000 —.0929 +.028 0 5.484 5.4466 5.3965 +.0501 +.031N 5.247 5.2918 5.3996 —.1078 +.016 N 5.453 5.4441 5.3946 +.0495 +.015D 5.213 5.2803 5.3989 —.1186 +.024 D 5.433 5.4400 5.3930 -I-.0470 +.019

1908 1913

J 5.282 5.2736 5.3981 —.1245 +.056 J 5.436 5.4349 5.3915 +.0434 +.043F 5.238 5.2714 5.3974 —.1260 —.011 F 5.455 5.4290 5.3902 +.0388 —.010M 5 252 5.2739 5.3967 —.1228 —.003 M 5.415 5.4230 5.3894 +.0336 —.009A 5.252 5.2809 5.3958 —.1149 +.010 A 5.420 5.4176 5.3889 +.0287 +.009M 5.337 5.2918 5.3951 —.1033 —.004 M 5.415 5.4136 5.3888 +.0248 —.005J 5.287 5.3055 5.3946 —.0891 —.015 J 5.407 5.4115 5.3889 +.0226 +.005J 5.350 5.3216 5.3940 —.0724 —.021 J 5.394 5.4114 5.3894 +.0220 —.019A 5.346 5.3390 5.3936 —.0546 —.043 A 5.387 5.4135 5.3901 +.0234 —.048S 5.388 5.3565 5.3933 —.0368 —.034 S 5.424 5.4168 5.3914 +.0254 —.029o 5.339 5.3733 5.3932 —.0199 +.029 0 5.417 5.4202 5.3929 +.0273 +.031N 5.421 5.3890 5.3933 —.0043 +.015 N 5.386 5.4224 5.3948 +.0276 +.017D 5.454 5.4030 5.3934 +.0096 +.022 D 5.392 5.4222 5.3970 +.0252 +.020

1909 1914

J 5.402 5.4152 5.3936 +.0216 +.055 J 5.442 5.4182 5.3993 +.0187 +.038F 5.401 5.4260 5.3941 +.0319 —.010 F 5.424 5.4100 5.4020 +.0080 —.012M 5.387 5.4356 5.3947 +.0409 —.004 M 5.413 5.3979 5.4052 —.0073 . —.010A 5.450 5.4443 5.3954 +.0489 +.008 A 5.446 5.3825 5.4085 —.0260 +.009M 5.423 5.4526 5.3963 +.0563 —.006 M 5.372 5.3649 5.4123 —.0474 —.004J 5.493 5.4607 5.3974 ±.0633 —.011 J 5.409 5.3468 5.4162 —.0694 +.0083 5.450 5.4682 5.3987 +.0695 —.021 J 5.439 5.3297 5.4202 —.0905 —.018A 5.490 5.4748 5.4000 +.0748 —.043 A 5.218 5.3150 5.4246 —.1096 —.048S 5.484 5.4800 5.4014 +.0786 —.033 S 5.216 5.3043 5.4294 —.1251 —.028o 5.482 5.4831 5.4029 +.0802 +.029 0 5.227 5.2986 5.4342 —.1356 +.031N 5.466 5.4834 5.4045 +.0789 +.014 N 5.237 5.2987 5.4393 —.1406D 5.484 5.4809 5.4062 +.0747 +.021 D 5.303 5.3056 5.4446 —.1390 +.021

1910 1915

J 5.507 5.4753 5.4080 +.0673 +.053 J 5.337 5.3195 5,4501 —.1306 +.034F 5.473 5.4669 54098 +.0571 —.009 F 5.380 5.3399 5.4557 —.1152 —.015M 5.470 5.4563 .5.4116 +.0447 —.005 M 5.397 5.3659 5.4616 —.0957 —.01C'A 5.437 5.4444 5.4135 +.0309 +.007 A 5.460 5.3959 •5.4677 —.0718 +.OOSM 5.407 5.4317 5.4154 +.0163 —.006 M 5.448 5.4276 5.4739 —.0463J 5.431 5.4195 5.4172 +.0023 —.006 J 5.417 5.4587 5.4802 —.0215 +.0iU3 5.426 5.4086 5.4191 —.0105 —.021 3 5.465 5.4874 5.4868 +.0006 —.OflA 5.363 5.3996 5.4208 —.0212 —.044 A 5.488 5.5122 5.4936 +.0186S 5.349 5.3929 5.4226 —.0297 —.032 S 5.532 5.5324 5.5006 +.0318 —.026O 5.376 5.3888 5.4242 —.0354 +.030 0 5.584 5.5486 5.5079 +.0407 +.030N 5.402 5.3870 5.4256 —.0386 +.014 N 5.377 5.5614 5.5153 +.0461D 5.393 5.3872 5.4270 —.0398 +.020 D 5.577 5.3720 5.5225 +.0495

1911 1916

3 5.390 5.3888 5.4280 —.0392 +.050 3 5.570 5.3815 5.5300 +.0515F 5.424 5.3915 5.4288 —.0373 —.008 F 5.600 5.5907 5.5378 +.0529M 3.397 5.3944 5.4293 —.0349 —.006 M 5.617 5.6000 5.5457 +.0543 —.010A 5.359 5.3974 5.4295 —.0321 +.007 A 5.581 5.6092 5.5538 +.0554M 5.415 5.4002 5.4295 —.0293 —.006 M 5.610 5.6184 5.5619 +.0565J 5.440 5.4024 5.4291 —.0267 —.002 J 5.609. 5.6275 5.5703 +.0572 +.0i3J 5.406 5.4041 5.4284 —.0243 —.021 J 5.584 5.6364 5.5786 +.0578A 5.422 5.4056 5.4276 —.0220 —.045 A 5.626 5.6455 5.5871 +.0584 —.047S 5 410 5.4071 5.4263 —.0192 —.031 S 5.705 5.6550 5.5935 +.05950 5.354 5.4085 5.4247 —.0162 +.030 0 5.676 5.6647 5.6040 +.0607 +029N 5.415 5.4104 5.4230 —.0126 +.015 N 5.725 5.6748 5.6125 +.0623 +.019D 5.399 5.4130 5.4211 —.0081 +.019 D 5.712 5.6847 5.6211 +.0636

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A278 APPENDIX

TABLE 28—Continued

BANK CLEARINGS IN NEw YORK CITY

1 2 3 4 5Date1917JFMAMJJAS0ND

5.6625.6805.6725.6845.7025.7405.7055.7215.6905.6775.6765.646

5.69335. 70005. 70425.70555. 70425. 70075.69585.69043.68525.68085.67745.6750

1 2 3 4 5

5.62975.63825. 64655.65475.66285 .67075.67835.68565.69295.69995. 70645. 7124

+.0636+ .0618+ .0577+0508+ .0414+.0300+.0175+.0048—.0077—.0191— .0290—.0374

Date1918JFMAMJJAS0N0

+.026—.020—.010+.005—.001+.016—.015—.046—.025+.028+.018+ .027

5.65 35.6635.6595.6685.7015.6775.7105.7305.6835.7115.6995.701

5.67365.67305.673 15.67405.67565.67835.68225.68735.69375. 70175. 71125. 7222

5. 71845. 72425. 72935. 73405.73855. 74265. 74655. 75005.75335. 75645.75915.7616

—.0448—.05 12—.0562—.0600—.0629—.0643—.0643—.0627—.0596—.0547—.0479—.0394

+.024—.022—.009+.004

.000+.018—.014—.046—.025

+ .026+.017+ .029

1919J 5.738 3.7349 5.7639 —.0290

BANK DEBITS IN NEW YORK CITY

+ .023

5.7675.7915.8165.8365.8435.8425.8185.8175.8345,8465.7965.793

3

5.79975. 79985.79995. 80025.80075.80115.80175.80255.80345.80455.805 75.8070

5. 78565. 79605.80545.81355.82055.82625.83083.83415.83605.83625.83485.8319

4

—.0141—.0038+.0055+.0133+ .0198+.0251+ .0291+.0316+.0326+ .0317+ .0291+ .0249

5--I-.022— .020+.002+.003+.001+ .025— .015—.046—.027+.01i+ .006÷ .035

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2

1919 1922J 5.744 5.7410 5.7699 —.0289 +.023 JF 5.738 5.7553 5.7720 —.0167 —.024 FM 5.738 5.7712 5.7740 —.0028 —.007 MA 5.759 5.7880 5.7759 +.0121 +.003 AM 5.817 5.8053 5.7778 +.0275 .000 M1 5.837 5.8220 5.7795 +.0425 +.020 J3 5.873 5.8372 5.7812 +.0560 —.014 JA 5.861 5.8500 5.7827 +.0673 —.045 AS 5.858 5.8594 5.7842 +.0752 —.025 SO 5.871 5.8650 5.7856 +.0794 +.022 0N 5.877 5.8667 5.7869 +.0798 +.014 ND 5.873 5.8648 5.7882 +.0766 +.031 D

1920 1923J 5.860 5.8599 5.7895 +.0704 +.022 JF 5.817 5.8528 5.7906 +.0622 —.023 FM 5.861 5.8445 5.7917 +.0528 —.004 MA 5.849 5.8358 5.7927 +.0431 +.003 AM 5.799 5.8273 5.7938 +.0335 +.001 MJ 3.798 5.8194 5.7946 +.0248 +.0223 3.803 5.8122 5.7953 +.0169 —.014A 5.794 5.8055 5.7961 +.0094 —.046 AS 5.794 5.7993 5.7967 +.0026 —.026 S0 5.794 5.7932 5.7972 —.0040 +.019 0N 5.817 5.7869 5.7976 —.01.07 +.O11 ND 5.826 5.1802 5.7980 —.0178 +.033 D

1921 1924J 3.788 5.7732 5.7984 —.0252 +.022 JF 5.756 5.7660 5.7988 —.0328 —.023 FM 5.750 5.7587 5.7990 —.0403 —.002 MA 5.733 5.7519 5.7992 —.0473 +.003 AM 5.742 5.7464 5.7992 —.0528 +.001 MJ 5.748 5.7427 5.7993 —.0566 +.024 J3 5.737 5.7414 5.7993 —.0579 —.015 JA 5.736 5.7431 5.7994 —.0563 —.046 AS 5.756 5.7477 5.7994 —.0517 —.026 S0 5.739 5.7550 5.7994 —.0444 +.015 0N 5.758 5.7643 5.7995 —.0352 +.008 ND 5.788 5.7749 5.7996 —.0247 +.034 D

5.8325.8505.85 75.8305.8245.8205.7885.7645.7695.7835.8205.818

5.82785.82295.81795.81345.80945.80645.80455.80345.80325.80405.80605.8092

5.80855 .81035.81225 .81435 . 81665.81905.82175.82475.82775.83075.83405.8376

+.0193+.0126+ .0057—.0009—.0072—.0126—.0172—.0213—.0245—.0267—.0280—.0284

+ .021—.018+ .005+ .004+.001+ .026—.016—.046— .028+.008+ .004+ .035

5.8325.8525.8335.8325.8385.8385.85 75.8755.8685.8555.8825.911

5.81385.81985.82695.83505.84365.85225.86065.86855.87585. 88265.88915.8954

5.84125.84485.84875.85245.85635.86025.86405.86785.87205.2 7595.88005.8841

—.0274—.0250—.02 18—.0174—.0127—.0080—.0034+.0007+.0038+.0067+ .0091+.0113

+.021—.016

+ .009+ .006+.001+.026—.017—.046—.028

+ .006+.003+ .034

Page 280: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS A279

TABLE 28—Continued

DEBITS IN NEW YORK CITY

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1925 1930J 5.931 5.9015 5.8881 +.0134 +.020 J 6.031 6.1399 +.018F 5.927 5.9076 5.8925 +.0151 —.014 F 6.056 6.1180 —.010M 5.918 5.9136 5.8966 +.0170 +.012 M 6.099 6.0943 +.020A 5.395 5.9195 5.9008 +.0187 +.007 A 6.100 6.0699 +.010M 5.926 5.9253 5.9051 +.0202 +.001 M 6.082 6.0457 .000J 5.927 5.9310 5.9097 +.0213 +.026 3 6.074 6.0228 +.025J 5.932 5.9366 5.9144 +.0222 —.018 3 6.001 6.0021 —.021A 5.921 5.942! 5.9193 +.0227 —.046 A 5.954 5.9844 —.047S 5.939 5.9474 5.9242 +.0232 —.029 S 5.990 5.9697 —.0300 5.966 5.9524 5.9297 +.0227 +.004 0 5.997 5.9573 .000N 5.952 5.9568 5.9351 +.0217 +.032 N 5.875 5.9468 .000D 5.957 5.9604 5.9407 +.0197 +.033 D 5.941 5.9373 +.030

1926 1931J 5.973 5.9631 5.9464 +.0167 +.020 J 5.881 5.9279 +.018F 5.960 3.9647 5.9527 +.0120 —.012 F 5.884 5.9181 —.010M 6.012 5.9655 5.9591 +.0064 +.015 M 5.929 5.9077 +.020A 5.982 5.9655 5.9658 —.0003 +.008 A 5.941 5.8962 +.010M 5.932 5,9650 5.9723 —.0073 +.001 M 5.908 5.8835 .000

J 5.9643 5.9796 —.0153 +.026 3 5.911 5.8695 +.025J 5.969 5.9640 5.9866 —.0226 —.019 J 5.852 5.8537 —.021A 5.973 5.9645 5.9937 —.0292 —.046 A 5.799 5.8362 —.047S 5.960 5.9661 6.0010 —.0349 S 5.855 5.8170 —.0300 5.964 3.9691 6.0085 —.0394 +.003 0 5.824 5.7967 .000N 5.933 5.9732 6.0162 —.0430 +.001 N 5.683 5.7755 .000D 3.990 5.9786 6.0239 —.0453 +.032 D 5.763 5.7543 +.030

1927 1932

3 5.985 5.9849 6.031! —.0464 3 5.738 5.7336 +.018F 6.002 5.9918 6.0388 —.0470 —.011 F 5.705 5.7139M 6.029 5.9991 6.0462 —.0471 +,017 M 5.697 5.6954. +.020A 6.019 6.0069 6.0534 —.0465 A 5.705 5.6781 +.010M 6.003 6.0150 6.0605 —.0455 +.001 lvi 5.620 5.6624 .000

3 6.016 6.0233 6.0676 —.0443 +.026 3 5.650 5.6485 +.025J 6.016 6.0319 6.0743 —.0424 —.020 3 5.634 5.6368 —.021A 6.055 6.0406 6.0811 —.0405 —.046 A 5.685 5.6279 —.047S 6.076 6.0492 6.0874 —.0382 —.030 S 5.704 5.6219 —.030O 6.039 6.0576 6.0936 —.0360 +.002 0 5.621 5.6188 .000N 6.044 6.0657 —.0337 +.001 N 5.315 5.6186 .000D 6.068 6.0736 6.1051 —.0315 +.031 D 3.624 5.6204 +.030

1928 1933

3 6.068 6.0815 6.1104 —.0289 3 5.585 5.6235 +.018F 6.063 6.0898 6.1153 —.0255 —.010 F 5.643 5.6275 —.010M 6.141 6.0986 6.1199 —.0213 +.019 M * 55318 +.020A 6.134 6.1078 6.1242 —.0164 +.010 A 5.592 5.6362 +.oioM 6.163 6.1175 6.1278 —.0103 +,001 M 5.654 5.6408 .000

J 6.134 6,1273 6.1312 —.0039 +.026 3 5.722 5.6459 +.0253 6.074 6.1368 6.1339 +.0029 —.020 3 5.769 5.6315 —.021A 6.101 6,1461 6.1362 +.00)9 —.047 A 5.572 5.6573 —.047S 6.141 6.1554 6.1380 +.0174 —.030 S 5.644 5.6627 —.030O 6.163 6.1648 6.1392 +.0256 +.001 0 5.632 5.6673 .000.

N 6.181 6.1747 6.1398 +.0349 .000 N 5.509 5.5701 .000D 6.200 6.1853 6.1397 +.0456 +.031 D 5.593 5.6708 +.030

1929 19343 6.228 6.1963 6.1392 +.0571 +.019 J 5.637 5.6695 +.018F 6.228 6.2069 6.1377 +.0692 —.010 F 5.684 3.6664M 6.232 6.2165 6.1357 +.0808 +.020 M 5.682 5.5622 +.020A 6.194 6.2238 6.1332 +.0906 +.010 A 5.742 5.6578M 6.208 6.2219 6.1299 +.0980 .000 M 5.675 .0001 6.133 6.2281 +.026 J 5.685 +.0251 6.222 6.2245 —.021 J 5.671 —.021A 6.245 6.2172 —.047 A 5,645 —.047S 6.255 6.2063 —.030 S 5.603 —.0300 6.309 5.1932 +.OU1 0 5.598 .000N 6.252 6.1777 .030 N 5.578 .000D 6.079 6.1598 +.030 D 5.661 +.030

•Not available, complete data not having been reported on account of bank holidays.

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A280 APPENDIX

TABLE 28—Concluded

BANK DEBITS IN Nzw YORK CITY

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1935 1936J 5.667 +.018 J 5.744 +.018F 5.661 —.010M 5.690 +.020A 5,714 +.O10M 5.672 .000

J 5.693 +.025J 5.753 —.021A 5.724 —.047S 5.699 —.030o 5.705 .000N 5.714 .000D 5.726 -I-.030

Page 282: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS A281

TABLE 29

DAILY AVERAGE BANK CLEARINGS OUTSIDE NEW YORK MONTHLY,JANUARY 1875-JANUARY 1919, INCLUsIVE; DAILY AVERAGE

BANK DEBITS FOR 140 OUTSIDE CITIES, MONTHLY,JANUARY 1919 - JANUARY 1936

Col. 1. Logarithms of Data (in thousands of dollars) Adjusted forSeasonal Fluctuations.

Col. 2. Cyclical Curve (logarithms).Col. 3. Trend Curve (logarithms).Col. 4. Deviations of Cyclical Curve (logarithms)

from Trend Curve (logarithms).Col. 5. Changing Seasonal Fluctuations (logarithms).

For details of the nature of the graduations given in Columns 2 and3 and of the seasonal given in Column 5 of this table, see Appendix D.

1See Table 27.

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A282 APPENDIX

TABLE 29

BANK CLEARINGS OUTSIDE NEW YoRK CITY

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1875 18803 4.458 4.4802 4.4948 —.0146 +.031 3 4.568 4.5506 4.5281 +.0225 +.031F 4.473 4.4796 4.4927 —.0131 —.007 F 4.565 4.5537 4.5341 +.0216 —.009M 4.515 4.4795 4.4903 —.0108 +.005 M 4.582 4.5590 4.5402 +.0188 —.012A 4.490 4.4799 4.4880 —.0081 —.010 A 4.583 4.5611 4.5462 +.0149 —.006M 4.468 4.4806 4.4853 —.0047 —.003 M 4.545 4.5622 4.5521 +.0101 —.005J 4.529 4.4815 4.4829 —.0014 —.005 3 4.540 4.5631 4.5584 +.0047 —.0063 4.470 4.4822 4.4802 +,0020 —.026 J 4.558 4.5643 4.5644 —.0001 —.024A 4.302 4.4822 4.4775 +.0047 —.041 •A 4.556 4.5666 4.5702 —.0036 —.043S 4.46' 4.4314 4.4746 +.0068 —.031 S 4.558 4.5705 4.5761 —.0056 —.0240 4.440 4.4797 4.4719 +.0078 +.033 0 4.544 4.5765 4.5818 —.0053 +.037N 4.505 4.4771 4.4691 +.0080 +046 N 4.597 4.5849 4.5875 —.0026 +.038D 4.460 4.4739 4.4664 +.0075 +.009 D 4.623 4.5954 4.5931 +.0023 +.026

1876 1881

3 4.470 4.4705 4.4636 +.0069 +.032 3 4.611 4.6075 4.5987 +.0088 +.029F 4.462 4.4672 4.4609 +.0063 —.007 F 4.633 4.6205 4.6038 +.0167 —.011M 4.500 4.4644 4.4583 +.0061 +.002 M 4.617 4.6333 4.6089 +.0244 —.014A 4.436 4.4623 4.4558 +.0065 —.009 A 4.626 4.6448 4.6138 +.0310 —.005M 4.453 4.4607 4.4532 +0075 —.003 ivi 4.634 4.6544 4.6183 +.0359 —.0043 4.484 4.4595 4.4510 +.0085 —.006 J 4.693 4.6614 4.6228 +.0386 —.0043 4.439 4.4584 4.4487 +.0097 —.027 3 4.624 4.6657 4.6269 +.0388 —.022A 4.485 4.4371 4.4465 +.0106 —.041 A 4.700 4.6676 4.6307 +.0369 —.043S 4.446 4.4556 4.4444 +.0112 —.031 S 4.688 4.6675 4.6342 +.0333 —.022O 4.428 4.4538 4.4426 +.0112 +.034 0 4.672 4.6659 4.6374 +.0285 +.037N 4.459 4.4520 4.4408 +.0112 +.044 N 4.659 4.6634 4.6402 +.0232 +.036D 4.460 4.4502 4.4391 +.0111 +.013 D 4.663 4.6605 4.6428 +.0177 +.027

1877 1882

3 4.441 4.4487 4.4375 +.0112 +.033 3 4.639 4.6573 4.6451 +.0124 +.027F 4.456 4.4477 4.4363 +.0114 —.007 F 4.641 4.6547 4.6470 +.0077 —.012M 4.458 4.4468 4.4351 +0117 —.002 M 4.641 4.6524 4.6487 +.0037 —.016A 4.434 4.4462 4.4342 +.0120 —.009 A 4.644 4.6305 4.6500 +.0005 —.005M 4.477 4.4455 4.4333 +.0122 —.004 M 4.641 4.6493 4.6510 —.0017 —.004T 4.406 4.4443 4.4327 +.0116 —.006 3 4.649 4.6489 4.6517 —.0028 —.0033' 4.427 4.4425 4.4323 +.0102 —.028 3 4.661 4.6493 4.6522 —.0029 —.019A 4.446 4.4402 4.4322 +.0080 —.041 A 4.663 4.6504 4.6523 —.0019 —.044S 4.445 4.4373 4.4322 +.0051 —.030 S 4.679 4.6522 4.6523 —.0001 —.0210 4.429 4.4341 4.4326 +,0015 +.033 0 4.646 4.6542 4.6521 +.0021 +.038N 4.447 4.4309 4.4331 —.0022 +.042 N 4.661 4.6563 4.6517 +.0046 +.034D 4.429 4.4276 4.4337 —.0061 +.018 D 4.641 4.6579 4.6510 +.0069 +.027

1878 1883

3 4.475 4.4246 4.4347 —.0101 +.033 J 4.657 4.6591 4.6502 +.0089 +.025F 4.406 4.4212 4.4358 —.0140 —.007 F 4.660 4.6596 4.6493 +.0103 —.014M 4.379 4.4193 4.4373 —.0180 —.005 M 4.661 4.6596 4.6483 +.0113 —.017A 4.398 4.4169 4.4392 —.0223 —.008 A 4.639 4.6592 4,6472 +.0120 —.004M 4.423 4.4149 4.4411 —.0262 —.004 M 4.664 4.6588 4.6459 +.0129 —.0043 4.383 4.4133 4.4435 —.0302 —.006 3 4.673 4.6584 4.6446 +.0138 —.0013 4.453 4.4122 4.4461 —.0339 —.027 3 4.660 4.6582 4.6433 +.0149 —.017A 4,394 4.4116 4.4488 —.0372 —.042 A 4.668 4.6579 4,6421 +.0158 —.045S 4.436 4.4119 4.4517 —.0398 —.028 S 4.652 4.6574 4.6409 +.0165 —.020O 4.456 4.4131 4.4548 —.0417 +.035 0 4.654 4.6562 4.6397 +.0165 +.038N 4.390 4.4151 4.4583 —.0432 +.041 N 4.641 4.6544 4.6385 +.0159 +.033D 4.390 4.4183 4.4620 —.0437 +.021 D 4.644 4.6515 4.6374 +.0141 +.027

1879 1884

J 4.435 4.4226 4.4662 —.0436 +.033 3 4.648 4.6486 4.6364 +,0122 +.022F 4.437 4.4282 4.4704 —.0422 —.008 F 4.642 4.6437 4,6355 +.0082 —.015M 4,407 4.4355 4.4748 —.0393 —.009 M 4.633 4.6381 4.6347 +.0034 —.018A 4.482 4.4446 4.4795 —.0349 —.007 A 4.657 4.6316 4.6339 —.0023 —.003M 4.442 4.4554 4.4843 —.0289 —.004 M 4.660 4.6249 4.6332 —.0083 —.0033 4.453 4.4679 4.4892 —.0213 —.006 3 4.594 4.6170 4.6326 —.0156 +.0013 4.507 4.4816 4.4943 —.0127 —.026 J 4.602 4.6103 4.6322 —.0219 —.015A 4.441 4.4958 4.4997 —.0039 —.042 A 4.594 4.6039 4.6320 —.0281 —.045S 4,481 4.5097 4.5052 +.0045 —.027 S 4.597 4.5981 4,6320 —.0339 —.020O 4.570 4.5227 4.5109 +.0118 +.036 0 4.591 4.5931 4.6320 —.0389 +.038N 4.536 4.5339 4.5167 +.0172 +.039 N 4.563 4.5892 4.6322 —.0430 +.032D 4.544 4.5433 4.5223 +.0210 +.024 D 4.606 4.5867 4.6326 —.0459 +.027

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BANK CLEARINGS A283

TABLE 29—Continued

BANK CLEARINGS OuTsmE NEW CITY

DaLe 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1885 1890J 4.608 4.5860 4.6331 —.0471 +.020 J 4.820 4.8134 4.8092 +.0042 +.017F 4.580 4.5871 4.6338 —.0467 —.016 F 4.813 4.8211 4.8119 +.0092 —.017M 4.584 4.5901 4.6348 —.0447 —.018 M 4.817 4.8283 4.8146 +.0137 —.018A 4.606 4.5946 4.6359 —.0413 —.002 A 4.833 4.8346 4.8172 +.0174 +.001M 4.579 4.6003 4.6371 —.0368 —.002 M 4.860 4.8396 4.8198 +.0198 +.004J 4.612 4.6069 4.6385 —.0316 +.002 J 4.838 4.8429 4.8221 +.0208 +.003J 4.631 4.6140 4.6400 —.0260 —.014 J 4.853 4.8445 4.8244 +,020t —.013A 4.598 4.6211 4.6417 —.0206 —.045 A 4.849 4.8443 4.8267 +.0176 —.046S 4.618 4.6282 4.6437 —.0155 —.020 S 4.856 4.8424 4.8289 +,0135 —.0230 4.640 4.6351 4.6457 —.0106 +.038 0 4.854 4.8392 4.8308 +.0084 +.036N 4.656 4.6416 4.6479 —.0063 +.031 N 4.837 4.8352 4.8328 +,0024 +.0300 4.666 4.6478 4.6502 —.0024 +.026 D 4.813 4.8309 4.8344 —.0035 +.024

1886 1891j 4.646 4.6534 4.6526 +.0008 +.018 J 4.819 4.8267 4.8359 —.0092 +.018F 4.664 4.6585 4.6553 +0032 —.017 F 4.817 4.8232 4.8372 —.0140 —.016M 4.681 4.6629 4.6580 +.0049 —.018 M 4.804 4.8208 4.8384 —.0176 —.018A 4.652 4.6670 4.6608 +.0062 —.002 A 4.828 4.8197 4.8396 —.0199 +.002M 4.642 4.6709 4.6636 +.0073 —.001 M 4.810 4.8200 4.8404 —.0204 +.004J 4.678 4,6748 4.6663 +.0083 +003 3 4.809 4.8217 4.8413 —.0196 +,0035 4.695 4.6791 4.6697 +.0094 —.013 J 4.829 4.8253 4.8420 —.0167 —.013A 4.683 4.6842 4.6729 +.0113 —.045 A 4.830 4.8291 4.8424 —.0133 —.046S 4.694 4.6900 4.6762 +.0138 —.020 S 4.870 4.8333 4.8426 —.0093 —.025o 4.682 4,6966 4.6795 +.0171 +.038 0 4.844 4.8376 4.8428 —.0052 +.035N 4.708 4.7038 4.6830 +.0208 +,031 N 4.829 4.8416 4.8429 —.0013 +.0310 4.720 4.7112 4.6866 +.0246 +.026 D 4.840 4.8444 4.8428 +.0016 +.025

1887 1892

J 4.691 4.7183 4.6902 +.0281 +.017 J 4.838 4.8475 4.8426 +.0049 +,019F 4.707 4.7248 4.6939 —.017 F 4.873 4.8503 4.8423 +.0080 —.016M 4.752 4.7303 4.6977 +.0326 —.018 M 4.859 4.8533 4.8419 +.0114 —.017A 4.745 4.7343 4.7015 +.0328 —.001 A 4.849 4.8569 4.8412 +.0157 +.002M 4.738 4.7371 4.7054 +.0317 .000 M 4.840 4.8613 4.8408 +.0205 +,0055 4.767 4.7384 4.7093 +.0291 +.004 J 4.873 4.8666 4.8400 +.0266 +.0025 4.727 4.7383 4.7132 +.0251 —.012 J 4.861 4.8726 4.8393 +.0333 —.014A 4.735 4.7371 4.7171 +.0200 —.045 A 4.879 4.8788 4.8385 +.0403 —.046S 4.738 4.7352 4.7210 +.0142 —.020 S 4.882 4.8842 4.8375 +.0467 —.026O 4.714 4.7327 4.7248 +.0079 +.038 0 4.869 4.8880 4.8366 +.0514 +.034N 4.747 4.7302 4.7286 +.0016 +.030 N 4.882 4.8900 4.8355 +.0545 +.0310 4.724 4.7281 4.7324 —.0043 +.025 D 4.891 4.8884 4.8342 +.0542 +.025

1888 18935 4.716 4.7267 4.7362 —.0095 +.016 J 4.888 4.8834 4.8329 +.0505 +.020F 4.729 4.7264 4.7399 —.0135 —.017 F 4.894 4.8753 4.8317 +.0436 —.015M 4.716 4.7273 4.7435 —.0162 —.018 M 4.883 4.8644 4.8303 +.0341 —.016A ' 4.725 4.7295 4.7470 —.0175 .000 A 4.873 4.8506 4.8289 +.0217 +.003M 4.742 4.7329 4.7S03 —.0174 +.001 M 4.874 4.8362 4.8272 +.0090 +.004J 4.734 4,7371 4.7537 —.0166 +.004 J 4.827 4,8212 4.8257 —.0045 +.002J 4.736 4.7420 4.7569 —.0149 —.012 J 4.791 4.8065 4.8239 —.0174 —.015A 4.758 4.7473 4.7600 —.0127 —.046 A 4.723 4.7927 4.8223 —.0296 —.046$ 4.747 4.7525 4.7630 —.0105 —.021 S 4.746 4.7806 4.8208 —.0402 —.027o 4.781 4.7575 4.7659 —.0084 +.037 0 4.754 4.7708 4.8193 —.0485 +.033N 4.734 4.7620 4.7689 —.0069 +.030 N 4.779 4.7639 4.8177 —.0538 +.0310 4.759 4.7658 4.7718 —.0060 +.024 D 4.774 4.7601 4.8162 —.0561 +.026

1889 1894

5 4.774 4.7690 4.7748 —.0058 +.017 J 4.784 4.7593 4.8146 —.0533 +.021F 4.778 4.7714 4.7776 —.0062 —.017 F 4.759 4.7611 4.8130 —.0319 —.015M 4.773 4.7733 4.7806 —.0073 —.018 M 4.776 4.7648 4.8116 —.0468 —.015A 4.762 4.7749 4.7836 —.0087 +.001 A 4.771 4.7696 4.8101 —.0405 +.004M 4.778 4.7763 4.7863 —.0100 +.003 M 4.780 4.7747 4.8089 —.0342 +.0043 4.773 4.7779 4.7893 —.0114 +.003 J 4.772 4.7794 4.8076 —.0282 +.0023 4.799 4.7801 4.7921 —.0120 —.012 J 4.768 4.7833 4.8064 —.0231 —.016A 4.786 4.7831 4.7950 —.0119 —.046 A 4.804 4.7864 4.8052 —.0188 —.0464.773 4.7872 4.7978 —.0106 —.022 S 4.790 4.7891 4.8042 —.0151 —.027o 4.800 4.7924 4.8005 —.0081 +.037 0 4.800 4.7917 4.8032 —.0115 +.031N 4.795 4.7987 4.8034 —.0047 +.030 N 4.799 4.7947 4.8022 —.0075 +.0300. 4.789 4.8058 4.8063 —.0005 +.024 D 4.798 4.7985 4.8013 —.0028 +.027

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A284 APPENDIX

TABLE 29—Continued

BANK CLEARINGS OUTSIDE NEW YORK

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

189S 1900J 4.810 4.8030 4.8006 +.022 J 4.969 4.9758 4.9743 +.0015 +.026F 4.776 4.8082 4.8000 +.0082 —.014 F 4.972 4.9729 4.9787 —.0058 —.011M 4.797 4.8138 4.7995 +.0143 —.014 M 4.973 4.9702 4.9830 —.0128 —.006A 4.814 4.8194 4.7990 +.0204 +.004 A 4.968 4.9682 4.9872 —.0190 +.008M 4.833 4.8246 4.7985 +.0261 +.003 M 4.975 4.9672 4.9912 —.0240 —.002J 4.824 4.8292 4.7983 +.0309 +.002 J 4.981 4.9675 4.9952 —.0277 .000J 4.854 4.8330 4.7981 +,0349 —.016 J 4.968 4.9694 4.9991 —.0297 —.015A 4.837 4.8356 4.7982 +.0374 —.047 A 4.970 4.9730 5,0028 —.0298 —.047S 4.827 4.8370 4.7983 +.0387 —.028 S 4.956 4.9783 5.0063 —.0280 —.0280 4.862 4.8370 4.7987 +.0383 +.030 0 4.979 4.9851 5.0098 —.0247 +.026N 4.845 4.8356 4.7994 +.0362 +.030 N 4.995 4.9931 5.0131 —.0200 +.025D 4.837 4,8328 4.8002 +.0326 +.028 D 4.993 5.0017 5.0164 —.0147 +.024

1896 1901J 4.818 1.8288 4.8011 +.0277 +.022 J 5.016 5.0106 5.0194 —.0088 +.026F 4.809 4.8238 4.8023 +,0215 —.014 F 3.014 5.0192 5.0224 —.0032 —.011M 4.800 4.8183 4.8038 +.0145 —.013 M 5.020 5.0272 5.0252 +.0020 —.005A 4.815 4.8125 4.8054 +.0071 +.005 A 3.056 5.0342 5.0280 +.0062 +.008M 4.802 4.8069 4.8071 —.0002 +.002 M 5.069 5.0403 5.0306 +.0097 —.003J 4.815 4.8017 4.8093 —.0076 +,001 J 5.047 5.0451 5.0332 +.0119 .000

4.819 4.7971 4.8114 —.0143 —.016 J 5.052 5.0488 5.0357 +.0131 —.014A 4.714 4.7935 4.8137 —.0202 —.047 A 5.054 3.0515 5.0381 +.0134 —.047S 4.784 4.7909 4.8163 —.0254 —.028 S 5.029 5.0533 5.0402 +.0131 —.0280 4.795 4.7894 4.8189 —.0295 +.029 0 5.049 5.0546 5,0426 +.0120 +.026N 4.796 1.7893 4.8216 —.0323 +.029 N 3.053 5.0556 5.0447 +.0109 +.024D 4.812 4.7906 4.8247 —.0341 +.028 D 5.041 5.0367 5.0467 +.0100 +.023

1897 1902

J 4.784 4.7934 4.8279 —.0345 +.023 J 5.067 5.0580 5.0486 +.0094 +.027F 4.798 4.7978 4.8310 —.0332 —.013 F 3.035 5.0597 5.0504 +.0093 —.010M 4.798 4.8037 48344 —.0307 —.011 M 5.054 5.0617 5.0523 +.0094 '—.003A 4.803 4.8109 4.8378 —.0269 +.006 A 5.081 5.0641 5.0543 +.0098 +.008M 4.793 4.8192 4.8410 —.0218 +.001 M 5.081 5.0665 5.0363 +.0102 —.005J 4.818 4.8283 4.8445 —.0162 +.00! J 5.048 5.0690 5.0582 +.0108 —.001J 4.838 4.8376 4.8479 —.0103 —.016 J 5.090 5.0713 5.0600 +.0113 —.014A 4.833 4.8466 4.8314 —.0048 —.048 A 5.063 5.0734 5.0618 +.0116 —.046S 4.894 4.8547 4.8550 —.0003 —.029 S 5.089 5.0752 5.0637 +.0115 —.027O 4.858 4.8616 4.8584 +.0032 +.027 0 5.083 5.0769 3.0656 +.0113 +.026N 4.867 4.8668 4.8620 +.0048 +.028 N 5.063 5.0785 5.0675 +.0110 +.023D 4.873 4.8702 4.8658 +.0044 +.028 D 5.071 5.0801 5.0694 +.0107 +.022

1898 19033 4.867 4.8721 4.8696 +.0025 +.024 J 5.084 5.0816 5.0712 +.0104 +.027F 4.890 4.8727 4.8733 —.0006 —.012 F 5.083 5.0832 5,0731 +.0101 —.010M 4.883 4.8727 4.8771 —.0044 —.010 M 5.075 5.0847 5.0751 +.0096 —.002A 4.857 1.8727 4.8810 —.0083 +.006 A 5.087 5.0859 5.0772 +.0087 +.008M 4.866 4.8737 4.8849 —.0112 .000 M 5.075 5.0866 5.0794 +.0072 —.0063 4.888 4.8756 4.8887 —.0131 +.OO1 J 3.10! 5.0868 5.0816 +.0052 —.0023 4.831 4.8795 4.8929 —.0134 —.016 J 5.105 5.0863 5.0839 +.0024 —.013A 4.892 4.8855 4.8971 —.0116 —.048 A 3.079 5.0850 5.0864 —.0014 —.046S 4.888 4.8928 4.9014 —.0086 —.029 S 5.090 5.0831 5.0888 —.0057 —.027O 4.878 4.9024 4.9057 —.0033 +.027 0 5.090 5.0806 5.0914 —.0108 -4-.026N 4.911 4.9133 4.9101 +.0032 +.021 N 5.064 5.0779 5.0939 —.0160 +.022D 4.931 4.9249 4.9146 +.0103 +.027 D 5.078 5.0753 5,0966 —.0213 +.021

1899 1904J 4.946 4.9366 4.9190 +.0176 +.025 3 5.067 5.0731 5.0991 —.0260 +.027F 4.966 4.9483 4.9237 +.0246 —.012 F 5.076 5.0718 5.1018 —.0300 —.010M 4.983 4.9586 4.9283 +.0303 —.008 M 5.076 5.0717 5.1045 —.0328 —.001A 4.963 4.9674 4.9329 +.0345 +.007 A 5.074 5.0730 5.1072 —.0342 +.008M 4.972 4.9745 4.9374 +.0371 —.001 M 5.057 5.0756 5.1101 —.0345 —.0083 4.972 4.9797 4.9419 +.0378 +.001 J 5.080 5.0796 5.1128 —.0332 —.002J 4.970 4.9830 4.9467 +,0363 —.016 J 5.074 5.0847 5.1157 —.0310 —.013A 4.982 4.9846 4.9514 +.0332 —.048 A 5.091 5.1184. —.0278 —.045S 4.994 4.9846 4.9561 +.0285 —.029 S 5.104 5.0970 5.1211 —.0241 —.0260 4.985 4.9834 4.9606 +.0228 +.026 0 5.101 5.1035 5.1238 —.0203 +.026N 4.982 4.9814 4.9651 +.0163 +.026 N 5.133 5.1100 5.1265 —.0165 +.022D 4.977 4.9788 4.9697 +.0091 +.026 D 3.135 5.1163 5.1292 —.0129 +.020

Page 286: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 287: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A286 APPENDIX

TABLE 29—Continued

BANK CLEARINGS OUTSIDE NEw Yornc CITY

L

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1915 1917J 5.286 3.2851 5.3349 —.0498 +.019 J 5.514 5.5117 5.4876 +.0241 +.017F 5.305 5.2877 5.3386 —.0509 —.013 F 5.517 5.5212 5.4965 +.0247 —.017M 5.308 5.2923 5.3428 —.0505 +.003 M 5.532 5.5298 5.5055 +.0243 +.001A 5.315 5.2986 5.3471 —.0485 +.005 A 5.537 5.5372 5.5145 +.0227 +.002M 5.305 5.3066 5.3516 —.0450 —.014 M 5.554 5.5433 5.5233 +.0200 —.014J 5.314 5.3157 5.3561 —.0404 —.001 J 5.548 5.5482 5.5326 +.0156 +.002J 5.319 5.3257 5.3613 —.0356 —.011 J 5.541 5.5523 5.5414 +.0109 —.011A 5.313 5.3360 5.3665 —.0305 —.041 A 5.563 5.5561 5.5503 +.0058 —.036S 5.335 5.3465 5.3718 —.0253 —.019 S 5.346 5,5601 5.5592 +.0009 —.0160 5.353 5.3568 5.3774 —.0206 +.030 0 5.578 5.5648 5.5682 —.0034 +.030N 5.383 3.3670 5.3833 —.0163 +.023 N 5.596 5.5705 5.5768 —.0063 +.021D 5.393 5.3772 5.3893 —.0121 +.022 D 5.562 5.5774 5.5851 —.0077 +.024

1916 1918

3 5.384 5.3874 5.3955 —.0081 +.018 3 5.567 5.5852 5.5934 —.0082 +.015F 5.410 5.3978 5.4019 —.0041 —.015 F 5.572 5.5936 5.6014 —.0078 —.019M 5.421 5.4083 5.4086 —.0303 +.002 M 5.597 5.6021 5.6092 —.0071 .000A 5.409 5.4188 5.4157 +.0031 +.004 A 5.615 5.6104 5.6168 —.0364 +.001M 5.435 5.4293 5.4229 +.0064 —.014 M 5.626 5.6179 5.6241 —.0062 —.0133 5.432 5.4397 5.4307 +.0090 .000 J 5.616 5.6245 5.6311 —.0066 +.003J 5.423 5.4499 5.4381 +.0118 —.011 J 5.641 5.6301 5.6379 —.0078 —.010A 5.454 5.4600 5.4461 +.0139 —.039 A 5.665 5.6347 5.6441 —.0094 —.035S 5.471 5.4703 5.4537 +.0166 —.018 S 5.642 5.6387 5.6499 —.0112 —.0140 5.480 3.4806 5.4621 +.0185 +.030 0 5.661 5.6423 5.6558 —.0135 +.029N 5.509 5.4910 5.4702 +.0208 +.022 N 5.644 5.6458 5.6611 —.0153 +.018D 5.502 5.5015 5.4789 +.0226 +.023 D 5.635 5.6495 5.6659 —.0164 +.025

1919J 5.657 3.6538 5.6703 —.0165 +.01

BANK DEBITS FOR 140 OUTSIDE CITIES

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1919 1921

J 5.719 5.7158 5.7324 —.0166 +.015 3 5.751 5.7635 5.7685 —.0050 +.013F 5.709 5.7208 5.7366 —.0158 —.020 F 5.737 5.7509 5.7680 —.0171 —.020M 5.698 5.7269 5.7406 —.0137 .000 M 5.726 5.7392 5.7675 —.0283 +.00tA 5.709 5.7341 5.7443 —.0102 .000 A 5.724 5.7288 5.7668 —.0380 .000M 5.744 5.7425 5.7477 —.0052 —.013 M 5.708 5.7201 5.7660 —.0459 —.0.13J 5.764 5.7520 5.7508 +.0012 +.005 J 5.715 5.7134 5.7653 —.0519 +.008J 5.789 5.7625 5.7537 +.0088 —.010 J S.700 5.7089 5.7646 —.0557 —.010A 5.790 5.7734 5.7562 +.0172 —.034 A 5.716 5.7064 5.7637 —.0573 —.034S 5.793 3.7845 5.7584 +.0261 —.013 S 5.725 5.7059 5.7630 —.0571 —.011O 5.787 5.7952 5.7605 +.0347 +.028 0 5.707 5.7068 5.7623 —.0555 +.025N 5.791 5.8052 5.7623 +.0429 +.015 N 5.716 5.7089 5.7617 —.0528 +.010D 5.818 5.8141 5.7640 +.0501 +.027 D 5.721 5.7115 5.7611 —.0496 -f-.029

1920 1922

3 5.832 5.8215 5.7652 +.0563 +.014 J 5.697 5.7144 5.7606 —.0462 +.012F 5.806 5.8272 5.7664 +.0608 —.020 F 5.720 5.7175 5.7601 —.0426 —.020M 5.834 5,8312 5.7674 +.0638 .000 M 5.725 3.7208 5.7S98 —.0390 +.002A 5.831 5.8332 5.7682 +.0650 .000 A 5.7243 .5.7595 —.0352 +.00lM 5.816 5.8330 5.7688 +.0642 —.013 M 5.7285 3.7S93 —.0308 —.012J 5.829 5.8308 5.7693 +.0615 +.007 5.749 5.7336 5.7593 —.0257 +.009J 5.837 5.8263 5.7696 +.0567 —.010 J 5,732 5.7396 5.1594 —.0198 —.010A 5.818 5.8195 5.7697 +.0498 —.033 A 5.744 5.7465 5.7S96 —.0131 —.035S 5.831 5.8109 5.7697 +.0412 —.012 S 5.753 5.7540 3.7600 —.0060 —.0110 5.802 5.800S 5.7694 +.0311 +.027 0 5.750 5.7616 5.7604 +.0012 +.024N 5.801 3.7888 5.7691 +.0197 +.012 N 5.749 5.7689 5.7611 +.0078 +.008D 5.793 5.7763 5.7688 +.0075 +.028 D 5.771 5.7756 5.7619 +.0137 +.030

Page 288: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK . A287

TABLE 29—Continued

BANK DEBITS FOR 140 OUTSIDE CITIES

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1923 1928J 5.791 5.7813 5.7628 +.0185 +.011 J 5.898 5.9039 5.9225 —.0186 +.009F 5.800 5.7859 5.7640 +.0219 —.019 F 5.890 5.9069 5.9247 —.0178 —.015M 5.799 5.7892 5.7653 +.0239 +.003 M 5.915 5.9102 5.9267 —.0165 +.006A 5.795 5.7915 5.7667 +.0248 +.002 A 5.920 5.9134 5.9286 —.0152 +.005M 5.807 5.7928 5.7681 +,0247 —.011 M 5.936 5.9167 5.9303 —.0136 —.007j 5.804 5.7931 5.7698 +.0233 +.010 J 5.946 5.9199 5.9319 —.0120 +.0093 5.778 5.7928 5.7717 +.0211 —.010 J 5.896 5.9228 5.9332 —.0104 —.009A 5.783 5.7918 5.7738 +.0180 —.036 A 5.918 5.9256 5.9339 —.0083 —.040S 5.770 5.7904 5.7759 +.0145 —.010 S 5.921 5.9285 5.9345 —.0060 —.0100 5.781 5.7885 5.7782 +.0103 +.023 0 5.931 5.9316 5.9346 —.0030 +.020N 5.785 5.7867 5.7806 +.0061 +.006 N 5.933 5.9353 5.9345 +.0008 +.003D 5.788 5.7850 5.7831 +.0019 +.030 D 5.952 5.9396 5.9344 +.0052 +.029

1924 19293 5.785 5.7838 5.7859 —.0021 +.011 J 5.9444 5.9342 +.0102 +.009F 5.799 5.7833 5.7887 —.0054 —.018 F 5.956 5.9496 5.9333 +.0163 —.014M 5.788 5.7838 5.7916 —.0078 +.004 M 3.952 5.9546 5.9320 +.0226 +.006A 5.796 5.7850 5.7945 —.0095 +.003 A 5.946 3.9589 3.9304 +.0285 +.005M 5.789 5.7871 5.7975 —.0104 —.010 M 5.939 5.9622 5.9282 +.0340 —.007J 5.775 5.7898 5.8005 —.0107 +.010 3 5.936 5.9641 +.0093 5.790 5.7932 5.8033 —.0103 —.010 3 5.972 5.9644 —.009A 5.795 5.7970 '5.8066 —.0096 —.037 A 6.000 5.9630 —.040S 5.794 5.8012 5.8098 —.0086 —.010 S 5.969 5.9602 —.010o 5.807 5.8058 5.8127 —.0069 +.022 0 5.998 5.9558 +.019N 5.793 5.8106 5.8157 —.0051 +.OOS N 5.975 5.9500 +.003D 5.818 5.8158 5.8187 —.0029 +.030 D 5.910 5.9430 +.029

1925 1930J 5.847 5.8211 5-.8216 —.0005 +.010 J 5.911 5.9349 +.008F 5.839 5.8266 5.8245 +.0021 —.017 F 5.900 5.9259 —.014M 5.832 5,8320 5.8273 +.0347 +.004 M 5.900 5.9160 +.007A 5.834 5.8362 5.8300 +.0062 +.003' A 5.904 5.9056 +.005M 5.829 5.8410 5.8326 +.0084 —.010 M 5.902 5.8951 —.006J 5.84) 5.8454 5.8353 +.0101 +.010 3 5.906 5.8848 +.009J 5.852 5.8493 5.8379 +.0114 —.009 J 5.883 5.8750 —.009A 3.845 5.8526 5.8404 +.0122 —.038 A 5.870 5.8657 —.040S 5.853 5.8365 5.8429 +.0136 —.010 S 5.860 5.8574 —.010O 5.869 5.8589 5.8456 +.0133 +.021 0 5.864 5.8497 +.019N 5.848 5.8609 5.8481 +.0128 +.004 N 5.815 5.8424 +.002D 5.860 5.8625 5.8507 +.0118 +.030 D 5.843 5.8352 +.029

1926 1931

3 5.872 5.8636 5.8531 +.0105 +.010 J 5.837 3.8280 +.0081? 5.872 5.8643 5.8558 +.0085 —.016 F 5.799 5.8202 —.014M. 5.874 5.8646 5.8585 +.0061 +.00S M 5.790 5.8119 -t-.O07

A 5.872 5.8645 5.8611 +.0034 +.004 A 5.811 5.8030 +.005M 5.849 3.8643 5.8638 +.0005 —.009 M 5.790 5.7935 —.006J 5.844 5.8640 5.8667 —.0027 +.010 3 5.802 5.7835 -I-.009

J 5.883 5.8639 5.8696 —.0057 —.009 J 5.783 3.7726 —.009.A 5.865 5.8641 5.8725 —.0084 —.039 A 5.767 5.7608 —.040S 5.862 5.8649 5.8755 —.0106 —.010 S 5,754 5.7482 —.010O 5.864 5.8661 5.8787 —.0126 +.021 0 5.748 5.7347 +.019N 5.853 5.8679 5.8816 —.0137 +.004 N 5.667 5.7205 +.002D 5.869 5.8700 5.8847 —.0147 +.029 D 5.713 5.7058 +.029

1927 1932

3 5.870 5.8725 5.8879 —.0154 +.009 J 5.702 5.6909 +.008F 5.887 3.8751 5.8910 —.0159 —.016 F 5.661 5.6760 —.014M 5.883 5.8777 5.8942 —.0165 +.006 M 5.639 5.6613 +.007A 5.891 5.8803 5.8973 —.0170 +.004 A 5.675 5.6470 +.00SM 5.876 5.8829 5.9004 —.0175 —.008 M 5.611 5.6332 —.0063 5.890 5.8855 5.9035 —.0180 +.010 J 5.625 5.6204 +.0093 5.878 5.8881 5.9065 —.0184 —.009 J 5.615 5.6088 —.009A 5.891 5.8906 5.90)4 —.0188 —.039 A 5.619 5.5987 —.040S 5.902 5.8932 5.9122 —.0190 —.010 S 5.604 5.5906 —.0100 5.889 5.8957 5.9149 —.0192 +.020 0 5.581 5.5846 -l-.019

N 5.897 5.8983 5.9173 —.0192 +.003 N 5.560 5.5808 +.002D 5.903 5.9010 5.9200 —.0190 +.029 D 5.588 5.5789 +.029

Page 289: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A288 APPENDIX

TABLE 29—Concluded

BANK DEBITS FOR 140 OUTSIDE CITIES

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1933 1935J 5.582 5.5788 +.008 J 5.679 +.008F 5.584 5.5801 —.014 F 5.687 —.014M * 5.5826 +.007 M 5.702 +.007A 5.344 5.5859 +.005 A 5.715 +.005M 5.576 5.5902 —.006 M 5.709 —.006J 5.627 5.5952 +,009 J 5.716 +.009J 5.660 5.6010 —.009 J 5.739 —.009A 5.641 5.6075 —.040 A 5.743 —.040S 5.620 5.6144 —.010 S 5.713 —.0100 5.604 5.6213 +.019 0 5.719 +.019N 5.597 5.6279 +.002 N 5.746 +.002D 5.603 5.6338 +.029 D 5.754 +.029

1934 1936J 5.621 5.6387 +.008 J 5.744 +.008F 5.638 5.6426 —.014M 5.650 5.6458 +.007A 5.667 5.6486 +.005M 3.669 —.0063 5.683 +.009J 5.661 —.009A 5.676 —.040S 5.643 —.010o 5.650 +.019N 5.648 +.002D 5.676 +.029

*Not available, complete data not having been reported on account of bank holidays.

Page 290: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS A289

TABLE 30

DEFLATED' BANK CLEARINGS OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY, MONTHLY,JANUARY 1875-JANuARY 1919, INCLUSIVE; DEFLATEDt BANK

DEBITS FOR 140 OUTSIDE CITIES, MONTHLY,JANUARY 1919 -JANUARY 1936

Col. 1. Logarithms of Data Adjusted for Seasonal Fluctuations.Col. 2. Cyclical Curve (logarithms).Col. 3. Trend Curve (logarithms).Col. 4. Deviations of Cyclical Curve (logarithms) from Trend

Curve (logarithms).Col. 5. Changing Seasonal Fluctuations (logarithms).

For details of the nature of the graduations given in Columns 2 and3 and of the seasonal given in Column 5 of this table, see Appendix D.

by dividing the Clearings Figures of Table 27 by Carl Snyder's "Index of GeneralPrice Level."

Page 291: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 292: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS

TABLE 30—Continued

A291

DEFLATED BANK CLEAEINGS OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY

I

4.7104.6824.6864.7094.6874.7204.7394.7064.7254.7434.7584.769

2

4. 68864. 69064. 6944,4. 69954.70564.71244.71964.72664. 73354.74014.74614.7518

3

4.72974.73124. 73304. 73484. 73684.73894. 74114. 74344.74584. 74834. 75084. 7534

4

—.0411— .0406— .0386— .0353—.0312— .0265—.0215—.0168—.0123—.0082—.0047—.0016

5

+.020—.016—.018-.002—.0024.002—.014—.045—.020+.038+ .031+ .026

I

4.9174.9104.9144.9304.95 74.9354.9504.9464. 9534.95 14.9404.915

2

4. 91024.91784. 92504. 93134. 93644. 93994. 94174. 94194. 94054. 93804. 93484.9314

3

4.90744. 91014.91274, 91.534. 91794.92034. 92264. 92504. 92 724.92924.93144.9332

4

+.0028+ .0077+.0123+.0160+ .0185+. 01 96+.0191+.0169+.0133+0088+ .0034— .0018

5

+.0t1—.017—.018+ .001+ .004+ .003—.013—.046—.023+.036+.030+.024

Date

1885JFMAMJJAS0ND

1886JFMAMJJAS0ND

1887JFMAM

AS0ND

4.7484.7674.7844.7544.7454.7814.7974.7864.7964.7844.8104.822

4.75634. 75924.76224.76524. 76834.77134.77464, 7 7794.78114.78434, 78774.7913

+.0006+.0022+ .0031+.0037+ .0041+.0048+ .0058+ .0077+.0106+ .0143+.0189+ .0233

Date1890

JFMAMJ3A.S0ND

1891IFMAMJJAS0ND

1892JFMAMJIS0ND

+.018—.017—.018— .002-.001

+ .003—.013— .045—.020+.038+ .031+ .026

4.9224.9194.9074.9314.9124.9174.9374.9384.9784.9474.9374.943

4.92824. 92574. 92424. 92404.92494. 92714.93104.93484.93894. 94294. 94664,94,59

4. 75694.76144.76534. 76894. 77244.77614. 78044. 78564.79174.79884. 80664. 8146

4. 82244. 82954. 83554. 83994. 84294. 84444. 84434. 84304. 84094.83804.83514. 8325

4. 93484. 93644. 93 794.93944.94054. 94174.94284. 94364. 94444. 94504. 94564.94,60

—.0066— .0107—.0137—.0154—.0156—.0146—.0118— .0088—.0035—.0021+ .0010+ .0029

+ .018—.016—.018

+ .002+ .004+ .003—.013—.046— .025

+ .035+.0314.025

4.7994.8154.8554.8484.8414.8754.8354.8434.8464.8224.8504.826

4.79484.79834.80194. 80564.80934. 81304.81664. 82024. 82394.82744. 83104.8345

+ .0276+ .03124.03364.0343+ .0336+ .0314+ .0277+.0228+.0170+.0106+ .0041— .0020

1

4.9404.9754.9614.9524.9424.9764.9634.9824.9844.9714.9854.993

4. 95 144. 95364.95604. 95894. 96284. 96764. 97334. 97954. 983 14 .98944.99224.9915

4. 94644.94664.94694. 94684. 94694. 94684. 94664. 94654. 94624. 94604. 945 74. 9450

+ .0050+ .00 70+.0091+.0121+.0159+.0208+.0267+.0330+.0389

0434+ .0465+.0465

+.019— .016—.017+ .002+ .003+ .002—.014— .046— .026+.034+.031+.025

+ .017—.017—.018—.001

.000+.004—.012—.045—.020+.038+ .030+.025

+.016—.017—.018

.000+ .001

.004—.012— .046—.021

+ .037+,030+.024

4.8194.8314.8184.8274.5444.8364.8384.8554.8444.8784.8514.856

4. 83814. 84164. 84484.84814.85124. 85444.85744.86034. 86314. 86594. 86884. 87 13

—.0076—.0121—.0152—.0171—.0176—.0173—.0161— .0142—.0123—.0105— .0093— .0083

1893JFMAM33AS0ND

8883

MAMJJAS0ND

1889JFMAM

JAS0ND

4.9914.9964.9914.9814.9874.9414.9 104.8424.8654.8734.8984.899

4.98784. 98114. 97194. 95994. 94734.93444. 92174.90984.89954. 89134. 88604.8835

4. 83054. 82954. 82964.83104.83364. 83714. 84134.84614.85084. 85544. 85954. 8630

4.86604. 86824.87004. 87164. 87314.87484. 87714.88024. 88434.88954.89574. 9027

4. 94434. 94404. 94324. 94254. 94144.94074. 93974.93884. 93794. 93734. 93654. 9356

+.0435+.0371+.0287+ .0174+.0061—.0063—.0180— .0290—.0384—.0460—.0505—.0521

+.020—.015—.016+ .003+ .004+.002—.015— .046—.027

+ .033+.031+.026

4,8714.8754.8704.8594.8754.8704.8964.8834.8704.8974.8924.886

4.87434. 87 704. 87984. 88274. 88534. 88824. 89094. 89374. 89634. 89904. 90184. 9046

— .0083— .0088—.0098—.0111—.0122—.0134—.0138—.0135—.0120—.0095—.0061—.0019

+.017'—.017—.018+ .001+ .003+ .003—.012— .046—.022+ .037+ .030+ .024

18943FMAMJIAS0ND

4.9094.8844.9014.8964.9114.9034.8994.9344.9214.9314.9304.929

4. 88404.88694. 89164. 89744.90354. 90914. 9 138

4. 92064. 92334. 92624. 9296

4.93464. 93384. 93314.93224. 93 164.93094. 93054.93004. 92954. 92924.92874. 9284

—.0506—.0469—.0415—.0348—.0281—.0218—.0167—.0125—.0089—.0059—.0025+ .0012

4.021—.015—.015

+ .004+ . 004+.002—.016— .046—.027

+ .031+ .030+ .027

Page 293: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A292 APPENDIX

TABLE 30—Continued

DEFLATED BANK CLEARINGS OUTSIDE NEW YoRK CITY

Date 1 2 3 4 3 Date 1 2 3 4 3

1895 1900 -

J 4.941 4.9335 4.9282 +.0053 +.022 J 5.061 5.0703 5.0743 —.0040 +.026F 4.907 4.9379 4.9283 +.0096 —.014 F 5.063 5.0668 5.0777 —.0109 —.011M 4.928 4,9426 4.9283 +.0143 —.014 M 5.064 5.0636 5.0808 —.0172 —.006A 4.945 4.9474 4.9282 +.0192 +.004 A 5.059 5.0613 5.0838 —.0225 +.008M 4.958 4.9518 4.9282 +.0236 +.003 M 5.067 5.0600 3.0864 —.0264 —.002J 4.949 4.9558 4.9284 +.0274 +.002 J 5.073 5.0600 5.0892 —.0292 .000

J 4.979 4.9592 4.9284 +.0308 —.016 J 5.060 5.0616 5.0919 —.0303 —.015A 4.962 4.9616 4.9290 +.0326 —.047 A 5.067 5.0648 5.0945 —.0297 —.047S 4.952 4.9631 4.9296 +.0335 —.028 S 5.053 5.0696 5.0969 —.0273 —.0280 4.987 4.9634 4.9302 +.0332 +.030 0 5.070 3.0757 5.0994 —.0237 +.026N 4.970 4.9626 4.9312 +.0314 +.030 N 5.082 5.0829 5.1016 —.0187 +.025D 4.968 4.9607 4.9324 +.0283 +.028 D 5.080 5.0905 5.1038 —.0133 +.024

1896 1901

J 4.948 4.9577 4.9336 +.0241 +.022 J 5.102 5.0983 5.1051 —.0074 +.026F 4.940 4.9538 4.9350 +.0188 —.014 F 5.100 5.1057 5.1077 —.0020 —.011M 4.931 4.9494 4.9366 +.0128 —.013 M 5.106 5.1125 5.1095 +.0030 —.005A 4.946 4.9445 4.9384 +.0061 +.005 A 5.142 5.1183 5.1114 +.0069 +.008M 4.932 4.9396 4.9401 —.0005 +.002 M 5.150 5.1233 5.1130 +,0103 —.003J 4.945 4.9350 4.9423 —.0073 +.001 3 5.128 5.1271 5.1149 +.0122 .000

J 4.955 4.9307 4.9444 —.0137 —.016 J 5.133 5.1298 5.1165 +.0133 —.014A 4.910 4.9272 4.9465 —.0193 —.047 A 5.135 5.1317 5.1180 +.0137 —.047S 4.921 4.9245 4.9489 —.0244 —.028 S 5.110 5.1328 5.1192 +.0136 —.028O 4.926 4.9229 4.9513 —.0284 +.029 0 5.130 5.1335 5.1208 +.0127 +.026N 4.927 4.9225 4.9538 —.0313 +.029 N 5.129 5.1338 5.1221 +.0117 +.024D 4.942 4.9234 4.9565 —.0331 +.028 D 5.117 5.1342 5.1234 +.023

1897 1902

J 4.915 4.9257 4.9594 —.0337 +.023 3 5.143 5.1348 5.1246 '4-.0102 +.027F 4.929 4.9296 4.9620 —.0324 —.013 F 5.131 5.1357 5.1258 +.0099 —.010M 4.929 4.9350 4.9651 —.0301 —.011 M 5.129 5.1367 5.1270 +.0097 —.003A 4.934 4.9416 4.9680 —.0264 +.006 A 5.157 5.1381 5.1285 +.0096 +.008M 4.924 4.9493 4.9708 —.0215 +.001 M 5.152 5.1394 5.1298. +.0096 —.0051 4.949 4.9578 4.9736 —.0158 +.001 3 5.119 5.1407 5.1312 +.0095 —.001

4.968 4.9665 4.9764 —.0099 —.016 J 5.160 5.1417 5.1324 +.0093 —.014A 4.984 4.9750 4.9794 —.0044 —.048 A 5.134 5.1426 5.1337 +.0089 —.046S 5.019 4.9827 4.9825 +.0002 —.029 S 5.159 5.1431 3.1349 +.0082 —.027O 4.983 4.9892 4.9853 +.0039 +.027 0 5.148 5.1437 5.1364 +.0073 +.026N 4.998 4.9941 4.9883 +.0058 +.028 N 5.129 5.1443 5.1378 +.0065 +.023D 4.998 4.9972 4.9914 +.0058 +.028 D 5.136 5.1450 5.1392 +.0058 +.022

1898 1903J 4.992 4.9989 49944 +.0045 +.024 3 5.150 5.1459 3.1404 +.0055 +.027F 5.015 4.9994 4.9973 +.0021 —.012 F 5.143 5.1470 5.1418 +.0052 —.010M 5.008 4.9992 5.0003 —.0011 —.010 M 5.136 5.1482 5.1433 +.0049 —.002A 4.988 4.9991 5.0034 —.0043 +.006 A 5.152 5.1493 5.1448 +.0045 +.008M 4.991 4.9998 5.0065 —.0067 .000 M 5.140 5.1500 5.1465 +.0035 —.006J 5.013 5.0013 5.0094 —.0081 +.001 3 5.167 5.1504 5.1481 +.0023 —.002'J 4.976 5.0047 5.0127 —.0080 —.016 3 5.170 5.1502 5.1498 +.0004 —.013A 5.017 5.0099 5.0160 —.0061 —.048 A 5.144 5.1492 5.1517 —.0025 —.046S 5.013 5.0162 5.0194 —.0032 —.029 S 5.156 5.1477 5.1536 —.0059 —.0270 5.003 5.0245 5.0228 +.0017 +.027 0 5.155 5.1456 5.1555 —.0099 +.026N 3.029 5.0338 5.0262 +.0076 +.027 N 5.129 5.1433 3.1574 —.0141 +.022D 5.050 5.0436 5.0297 +.0139 +.027 D 5.145 5.1409 5.1594 —.0185 +.021

1899 1904J 5.060 5.0534 5.0330 +.0204 +.025 3 5.133 5.1389 5.1614 —.0225 +.027F 5.079 5.0630 5.0367 +0263 —.012 F 5.140 5.1376 5.1634 —.0258 —.010M 5.096 5.0711 5.0402 +.0309 —.008 M 5.141 5.1374 5.1654 —.0280 —.001A 5.071 5.0776 5.0437 +-0339 +.007 A 5.139 5.1384 5.1674 —.0290 +.008M 5.080 5.0824 3.0470 +.0354 —.001 M 5.123 5.1405 5.1696 —.0291 —.008J 5.079 5.0853 5.0505 +.0348 +.001 J 5.145 5.1440 5.1715 —.0275 —.002J 5.072 5.0864 5.0542 +.0322 —.016 J 5.139 5.1485 5.1737 —.0252 —.013A 5.084 5.0860 5.0577 +.0283 —.048 A 5.157 5.1536 5.1757 —.0221 —.045S 5.096 5.0841 5.0610 +.0231 —.029 S 5.169 5.1592 5.1776 —.0184 —.026O 5.082 5.0812 5.0644 +,0168 +.026 0 5.161 5.1649 5.1795 —.0146 +.026N 5,078 5.0779 5.0677 +.0102 +.026 N 5.193 5.1705 5.1815 —.0110 +.022D 5.073 5.0742 5.0711 +.0031 +.026 D 5.190 5.1738 5.1835 —.0077 +.020

Page 294: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

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Page 295: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A294 APPENDIX

TABLE 30—Continued

DEFLATED BANK CLEARINGS OursmE NEW YORK CITY

DEFLATED BANK DEBITS FOR 140 OUTSIDE CITIEs

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1919 19213F

5.5085.503

5.50355.5058

5.51215.5132

—.0086—.0074

+.015—.020

JF

5.5035.502

5.51235.5090

5.52695.5273

—.0146—.0183

+.013—.020M

A5.4895.495

5.50915.5132

5.51435.5153

—.0052—.0021

.000

.000MA

5.4975.501

5.50635.5042

5.52795.5283

—.0216—.0241

+.031.000

M 5.522 5.5180 5.5161 +.0019 —.013 M 5.493 3.5029 5.5288 —.0259 —.01333A

5.5345.5485.544

5.52335.52885.5340

5.51695.51775.5184

+.0064+.0111+.015t5

—.010—.034

JJA

5.5055.4965.512

5.50255.50325.5048

5.52945.53005.5303

—.0269—.0268—.0257

+.008—.010'—.034

S 5.548 5.5386 5.5190 +.0196 —.013 S 5.523 5.5074 5.5311 —.0237 —.0110N

5.5375.533

3.54235.5448

5.51985.5204

+.0225+.0244

+.028+.015

0N

5.5055.514

5.51055.5140

5.53185.5325

—.0213—.0185

+.025+.010

D 5.553 5.5462 5.5210 +.0252 +.027 D 5.523 5.5174 5.5333 —.0159 +.029

1920 1922

3F

5.5585.531

5.54645.5457

5.52125.5218

+.0252+.0239

+.014—.020

JF

5.5045.531

5.52065.5236

5.53435.5350

—.0137—.0114

+012—.020

M 5.551 5.5443 5.5223 +.0220 .000 M 5.535 5.5263 5.5361 —.0098 +.002A 5.539 5.5423 5.5228 +.0195 .000 A 5.524 5.5289 5.5371 —.0082 +.O01M 5.520 5.5399 5.5232 +.0167 —.013 M 5.536 5.5318 5.5382 —.0064 —.0123JA

5.5315.5405.528

5.53715.53405.5303

5.52385.52423.5246

+.0133+.0098+.0059

+.007—.010—.033

J3A

5.5505.5325.540

5.53535.53945.5442

.5.53935.54065.5418

—.0340—.0012+.0024

+009—.010—.035

S 5.541 5.5270 5.5251 +.0019 —.012 S 3.549 5.5494 5.5433 +.0061 —.0110N

5.5185.530

5.52315.5194

5.52545,5259

—.0023—.0065

+.027+.012

0N

5.5435.539

5.55475.5598

5.54475.5463

+.0100+.0135

+.024+.008

D 5.539 5.5157 5.5263 —.0106 +.028 D 5.558 5.5644 5.5477 +.0167 +.030

1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4

1917

Date

1913JFMAMJJAS0ND

1916JFMAM33AS0ND

5.4075.4035.4115.4035.411.5.39 7

5.39 15.4115.3935.4255,4475.406

5.2865.3055.3085.3115.3005.3095.3105.3005.3185.3245.3535.360

5.3435.3655.3685.3525.3785.3 725.3625.38753925.3945.4085.398

5.40115.40305.40455.40555.40605.40635.40675.4075S . 40895.41135. 41465.4187

5.28575.28785.29135.29625.30195.308153 1465.32095.327 15.33275.33825.3436

5. 34915.33475. 36065.36645.37205 . 37735.38205.38625.38995.39325.39605.3987

5.3861538965. 39335.39695.40025. 40395.40725. 41055.41385.41725.42035 .4231

5.322 15.32375.32545.32725.32935.33125. 3336.5. 33595.33795.34035. 34285.3453

5. 34795.35065-3534535645.3595536305.36595.3693537225.37585.37915.3825

S

+.017—.017+ .001+.002—.014+ .002—.011—.036—.016+.030+.021+.024

+.0150+.0134+.0112+.0086+ .0058+.0024— .0005—.0030— .0049—.0059—.0057—.0044

— .0364— .0359— .0339—.0310—.0274—.0231—.0190—.0150—.0108—.0076— .0046—.0017

+ .0012+ .0041+ .0072+ .0100+.0125+.0143+.0161+.0169+.0177+.0174+.0169+.0162

+.019—.013+.003+.005—.014—.001—.011—.041—.019+.030+.023+.022

+.018— .015+.002+.004—.014.000

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+.030+.022+ .023

JFMAM3JAS0ND

1918JFMAMJ3AS0ND

1919J

S . 4095.4085.4305.4425-4475.431S . 4515.4665.438S .4515.4345.420

5.42325.42795.43215.43565.43815. 43965.44025.44015.43975.43945. 43955.4401

5.42615.42895.43 155.43405.43645.438 75.44103.44285.44445.44615.44775.4490

— .0029—.0010+ .0006+ .0016+ .0017+ .0009— .0008—.0027— .0047— .0067— .0082— .0089

+.015—.019

.000+.001—.013

+ .003—.010—.035— .014+ .029+.018+ .025

5.446 5. 4415 5.4500 — .0085 +.015

Page 296: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

BANK CLEARINGS A295

TABLE 30—Continued

DEFLATED BANK DEBITS FOR 140 OUTSIDE CITIEs

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4 5

1923 1928

_______

J 5.579 5.5683 5.5493 +.0190 3 5.660 5.6640 5.6756 —.0116 +.009F 5.585 5.5713 5.5510 +.0203 —.019 F 5.652 5.6657 5.6772 —.0115M 5.581 5,3733 5.5528 +,0205 +.003 M 5.674 5.6678 5.6787 —.0109 +.00(A 5.579 5.5743 5.5546 +.0197 +.002 A 5.677 5.6700 5.6802 —.0102 +.005M 5.587 5.5747 5.5563 +.0184 —.011 lvi 5.688 5.6723 5.6817 —.0094 —.0W'J 5.584 5.5743 5.5583 +.0160 +.010 3 5.700 5.6747 5,6830 —.0083 +.ooc3 5.561 5.5734 5.5603 +.0131 —.010 3 5.650 5.6767 5.6841 —.0074 —.009A 5.565 5.5720 5.5623 +.0097 —.036 A 5.672 3.6786 5.6849 —.0063 —.040S 5.552 5.5704 5.5641 +.0063 —.010 S 5.671 5.6805 5.6856 —.0051 —.0100 5.561 5.5684 5,5662 +.0022 +.023 0 5.683 3.6825 5.6858 —.0033 +.02CN 5.564 5.5668 5.5683 —.0015 +.006 N 5.682 5.6851 5.6859 —.0008 +.O02D 5.567 5.5654 5.5703 —.0049 +.030 D 5.701 5.6881 5.6863 +.0018 +.029

1924 1929J 5.562 5.5645 5.5726 —.0081 +.011 3 5.696 5.6917 5.6867 +.0050 +.009F 5.576 5.5644 5.5746 —.0102 —.018 F 5.703 5.6958 5.6865 +.0093 —.0t4M 5.568 5.5653 5..5769 —.0116 +.004 M 5.697 5.6999 5.6860 +.0139 +.006A 5.578 5.5667 5.5792 —.0125 +.003 A 5.693 5.7035 5.6853 +.0182 +.005M 5,572 5.5689 5.5815 —.0126 —.010 M 5.686 5.7065 5.6842 —.0073 5.561 5.5716 5.5837 —.0121 +.010 J 5.683 5.7085 +.009J 5.572 5.5748 5.5858 —.0110 —.010 3 5.715 5.7085 —.009A 5.575 5.5783 5.5880 —.0097 —.037 A 5.742 5.7086 —.040S 5.576 5.5820 5.5903 —.0083 —.010 S 5.708 5.7069 —.010O 5.590 3.5859 5.5923' —.0064 +.022 0 5.741 5.7041 +.019N 5.574 5.5898 5.5944 —.0046 +.005 N 5.734 5.7002 +.003D 5.592 5.5939 5.5965 —.0026 +.030 D 5.669 5.6955 +.029

1925 1930J 5.619 5.5979 5.5985 —.0006 +.010 3 5.670 5.6900 +.008F 5.611 5.6019 5.6005 +.0014 —.017 F 5.663 5.6839 —.014lvi 5.605 5.6057 5.6025 +.0032 +.004 M 5.662 5.6773 +.007A 5.609 3.6083 5.6045 +.0038 +.003 A 5.664 5.6703 +.005M 5.603 3.6116 5.6064 +.0052 —.010 N 5.667 5.6634 —.006J 5.620 5.6146 5.6084 +.0062 +.010 J 5.678 5.6568 +.009J 5.621 5.6172 5.6103. +.0069 —.009 J 5.660 5.6508 —.009A 5.612 5.6195 5.6122 +.0073 —.038 A 5.650 5.6453 —.040S 5.621 5.6226 5.6141 +.0085 —.010 S 5.638 5.6408 —.010o 5.633 5.6244 5.6162 +.0082 +.021 0 5.652 5.6371 +.019N 5.610 5.6259 5.6181 +.0078 +.004 N 5.609 5.6337 +.002D 5.622 5.6271 5.6202 +.0069 +.030 D 5.645 5.6306 +.029

1926 . 1931J 5.634 5.6280 5.6221 +.0059 +.010 J 5.641 5.6275 +.008F 5.637 3.6286 5.6243 +.0043 —.016 F 5.604 5.6238 —.014N 5.642 5.6289 5.6265 +.0024 +.005 N 5.594 5.6196 +.007A 3.639 5.6290 5.6285 +.0005 +.004 A 5.620 5.6149 +.005N 5.616 5.6291 6.5306 —.0015 —.009 N 5.605 5.6097 —.006J 5.611 5.6293 5.6329 —.0036 +.010 3 5,626 5.6042 +.009J 5.653 5.6298 5.6352 —.0054 —.009 J 5.610 5.5981 —.009A 5.632 5.6307 5.6374 —.0067 —.039 A 5.594 5.5914 —.040S 5.626 5.6321 5.6398 —.0077 —.010 S 5.587 5.5841 —.010O 5.632 5.6339 5.6423 —.0084 +,021 0 5.590 5.5762 +.019N 5.618 5.6362 5.6444 —.0083 +.004 N 5.527 5.5673 +.002D 5.636 5.6387 5.6469 —.0082 +.029 D 5.567 5.5583 +.029

1927 1932J 5.639 5.6414 5.6494 —.0080 +.009 3 5.562 5.5485 +.008F 5.656 5.6442 5.6517 —.0075 —.016 F 5.527 5.5385 —.014M 5.653 5.6468 5.6542 —.0074 +.006 M 5.502 5.5283 +.007A 5.663 5.6492 5.6566 —.0074 +.004 A 5.548 5.5182 +.005N 5.646 5.6515 5.6589 —.0074 —.008 M 5.490 5.5084 —.006J 5.657 5.6536 5.6613 —.0077 +.010 J 5.514 5.4994 +.009J 5.648 5.6555 5.6637 —.0082 —.009 J 5.504 5.4915 —.009A 5.658 5.6571 5.6658 —.0087 —.039 A 5.498 5.4849 —.040S 5.664 5.6586 5.6678 —.0092 —.010 S 5.483 5.4799 —.0100 5.650 5.6599 5.6698 —.0099 +.020 0 5.464 5.4766 +.019N 5.658 3.6611 5.6718 —.0107 +.003 N 5.446 5.4750 +.002D 5.662 5.6625 5.6737 —.0112 +.029 D 5.481 5.4747 +.029

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A296 APPENDIX

TABLE 30—Concluded

DEFLATED DEBITS FOR 140 OUTsIDE CITIES

Date 1 2 3 4 5 Date 1 2 3 4

1933 1935J 5.478 5.4755 +.008 J 5.530 +.008F 5.491 5.4771 —.014 F 5.535 —.014M * 5•4793 +.007 M 5.553 +.007A 5.451 5.4816 +.005 A 5.563 +.0O5M 5.472 5.4844 —.006 M 5.554 —.006J 5.520 5.4872 +.009 J 5.558 +.009J 5.539 5.4904 —.009 J 5.578 —.009A 5.520 5.4937 —.040 A 5.579 —.040S 3.496 5.4972 —.010 S 5.546 —.010O 5.480 5.5006 +.019 0 +.0!9N 5.473 5.5039 +,002 N 5.573 +.002D 5.482 5.5067 +.029 D 5.591 +.029

1934 1936

J 5.497 5.5089 +.008 J 5.568 +.008F 5.504 5.5106 —.014M 5.516 5.5120 +.007A 5.530 5.5133 +.005M 5.535 —.006

J 5.546 +.009J 5.521 —.009A 5.536 —.040S 5.500 —.010O 5.507 +.019N 5.502 +.002D 5.530 +.029

*Not available, complete da a not having been reported on account of bank holidays.

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PIG IRON PRODUCTION A297

Q

TABLE 31

DAILY AVERAGE PIG IRON PRODUCTION' IN THE UNITED STATES, MONTHLY,JANUARY 1877 - JANUARY 1936

Col. 1. Logarithms of Data (see Table 27—Column 4).Col. 2. Cyclical Curve (logarithms).Col. 3. Trend Curve (logarithms).Col. 4. Deviations of Cyclical Curve (logarithms) from Trendl

Curve (logarithms).

For details of the nature of the graduations given in Columns 2 and3 of this table, see Appendix D.

'These figures do not include charcoal pig iron.

Page 299: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

1Except. iron.

A298 APPENDIX

TABLE 31

PIG PRODUCTION1 IN THE UNITED STATES

1 2 2 3 41

1.0411.0551 .051

1.0431.0331.0241.0131.0101.0201.0471.0631.073

1.01611.01991.02391.02811.03231 .03631.04001. 04341.04671. 05011.05351. 0569

1,01971. 02 16

1. 02331.02471.02581. 02661 .02711.02741. 02 731.02711.02671.0262

—.0036—.0017+ .0006+.0034+ 0065+.0097+.0129+.0160+.0194+.0230+.0268+. 0307

1.0791.0801.0751 .060

1.0481 .045I . 0431.0411.0381.0321.0261.016

1 .06001.06231. 06321.06231. 05931. 05421. 04 761.04011.03251.02561.01991. 0156

1.02561.02481.02411.02351.02291.02231.02191.02161 .021 1

1.02101.02101 .0213

Date1877JFMAMJ

JAS0ND

1878JFMAMJJAS0ND

1879JFMAMJJAS0ND

1880JFMAMJ

S0ND

1881JFMAMJ

JAS0ND

+ .0344+,0375+ .0391+.0388+.0364+.0319+ .0257+.0185+ .0114+ . 0046-.0011—.0057

.673

.679

.684686

• 681.674.672.676685

.699

.716

.735

.756

.771

.777

.771

.760

.751

.736

.726720

.726

.732

.738

.741

.744

.747

.751

.759.777.806.835.864.894.921.946

.966

.982

.989989

.978

.958

.935

.927

.935

.949

.961974

.987

.9971.001

.999

.991984

.977

.975.980.986.998

1.015

3

.662 7

.6652

.6681

.6715

.6752

.6789

.6831

.6877

.6926

.697 7

.70297084

.7140

.7200.7261.7324.7389.7455.7524.7595.7666.7740.7816.7890

.7963

.8040

.8119

.8 197

.82 73

.8352

.8430

.8509

.858 7

.8666

.8 7438821

.8896

.8972

.9047

.9120

.9 190

.9259

.9328

.939 7

.9463

.9528

.9592

.9653

.9 709

.976 7

.9820

.987 1

.99 18

.99661. 00091. 00481 .00841.01171.01471.0173

.6661

.6683

.6706

.6733

.677 1

.682.1

.6886

.6965

.7053

.7147

.7241.7331

.74 10

.7476

.7522

.7548

.7550

.7530

.7490

.7435

.7374

.7317

.72 73

.7254

.7269

.7323

.742 1

.7562

.7744

.795 9

.8197

.8449

.8700

.8940

.9155

.9338

.9483

.9588

.9654

.9688

.9696

.9688

.967 1

.9654

.9641

.9637.9642.965 7

.9682

.9714.9754.9798.9844.9891.9937..9980

1. 00201.00561.00911.0125

4

+.0034+.0031+.0025+.0018+ .0019+.0032+ .0055+.0088+.0127+.0170+.0212+.0247

+.0270+.0276+ .0261+.0224+.0161+.0075—.0034—.0160— .0292— .0423—.0543— .0636

— .0694—.0717— .0698— .0635— .0529— .0393— .0233— .0060+.0113+.0274+ .0412+ .0517

+ .0587+.0616+ .0607+.0568+ .0506+.0429+.0343+.0257+.0178+ .0109+ .0050+ .0004

—.0027—.0053—.0066—.0073—.0074—.0075—.0072— .0068— .0064—.0061—.0056— .0048

Date1882

FMAMJJAS0ND

1883JFMAMJ

•1AS0ND

1884JFMAMJJAS0ND

1885JFMAMJJAS0ND

1886JFMAMJJAS0ND

.997

.985

.9921.0091.0191.0251.03 11.010

.993

.9961 .004

.975

1. 01261.01051. 00921. 00821.00731.00631.00521.00371.0016

.9989

.9956

.99 18

1.02181.02241. 02321. 02421.02541.02671.02831.02991.03191 .03391. 03621. 0386

—.0092—.0119—.0140—.0160—.0181—.0204—.0231—.0262—.0303—.0350—. 0406—. 0468

.957991

1.004996

.987

.982

.993

.996

.9911.0101.0491 .083

.9877

.9840.9812.9800.9813.9852.992 1

1.00201.01441.02891.04511. 0624

1.04111.04381 .04661. 04951. 05281.03601. 05951. 06321. 06701. 0 7091.07511. 0 793

—.0534— .0598— .0654— .0695—.0715—.0708—.0674—.0612—.0526—.0420— .0300—.0169

1 .0861,0781.1081.1531.1771 . 1851.1801 . 1 701.1731.1871.1941 .200

1. 08051.09911.11791.13621.15321. 16831. 18051.18931. 19461.19661. 19611.1942

1.08371.08821.09291.09791.10311.10811. 11361. 11901.12491. 13071. 13681. 142 7

—.0032+ .0109+.0250+.0383+.0501+ .0602+.0669+.0703+ .0697+ .0659+ .0593+ .0515

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PIG IRON PRODUCTION A299

TABLE 31—Continued

Pxo IRON PRODUCTION' IN THE UNITED STATES

Date 1 2 3 4 Oate 1 2 3 4

1887 1892J 1.211 1.1921 1.1486 +.0435 J 1.412 1.4082 1.3276 +.0806F 1.219 1.1907 1.1546 +,0361 F 1.413 1.4062 1.3252 +.0810M 1.223 1.1906 1.1605 +.0301 M 1.407 1.3992 1.3228 +.0764A 1.231 1.1917 1.1665 +.0252 A 1.389 1.3895 1.3204 +.0691M 1.166 1.1939 1.1727 +.0212 M 1.370 1.3795 1.3180 +.0615J 1.084 1.1965 1.1786 +.0179 J 1.360 1.3718 1.3156 +.0562J 1.113 1.1988 1.1846 +.0142 J 1.344 1.3679 1.3132 +.0547A 1.188 1,2004 1.1905 +.0099 A 1.322 1.3681 1.3108 +.0573S 1.245 1.2011 1.1962 +.0049 S 1.326 1.3714 1.3087 +.06270 1.264 1,2009 1.2018 —.0009 0 1.354 1.3760 1.3065 +.0695N 1.266 1.2002 1.2072 —.0070 N 1.377 1.3794 1.3043 +,0751D 1.255 1.1991 1.2125 —.0134 D 1.379 1.3793 1.3024 +.0769

1888 1893

J 1.211 1'. 1982 1,2179 —.0197 J 1.372 1.3741 1.3005 +0736F 1.164 1.1978 1.2230 —.0252 F 1.376 1.3630 1.2986 +.0644M 1.161 1,198.1 1.2279 —.0298 M 1.386 1.3461 1.2968 +.0493A 1.181 1.1994 1.2328 —.0334 A 1.393 1.3240 1.2951 +,0289M 1.193 1.2020 1.2373 —.0353 M 1.388 1.2976 1.2936 +.0040J 1.183 1.2061 1.2419 —.0358 3 1.354 1.2681 1.2921 —.0240J 1.182 1.2118 1,2462 —.0344 J 1.254 1.2366 1.2907 —.0541A 1.204 1.2191 1.2504 —.0313 A 1.114 1.2045 1.2896 —.0851S 1.223 1.2276 1.2547 —.0271 S 1.027 1.1736 1.2885 —.1149O 1.245 1.2368 1.2589 —.0221 0 1.021 1.1459 1.2876 —.1417N 1.273 1,2459 1.2630 —.0171 N 1.095 1.1236 1.2870 —.1634D 1.293 1.2542 1.2671 —.0129 D 1.146 1.1092 1.2866 —.1774

1889 18943 1.291 1.2611 1.2711 —.0100 J 1.151 1.1042 1.2862 —.1820F 1.283 L2662 1.2751 —.0089 F 1.179 1.1092 1.2862 —.1770M 1.284 1.2697 1.2792 —.0095 M 1.236 1.1237 1.2865 —.1628A 1.273 1.2721 1.2832 —.0111 A 1.236 1.1459 1.2869 —.1410M 1.254 1.2741 1.2871 —.0130 M 1.095 1.1730 1.2873 —.11433 1.247 1.2764 1.2912 —.0148 J 1.026 1.2018 1.2881 —.08633 1.256 1.2799 1.2952 —.0153 J 1.159 1.2298 1.2890 —.0592A 1.260 1.2850 1.2991 —.0141 A 1,281 1.2549 1.2902 —.0353S 1.273 1.2924 1.3030 —.0106 S 1.334 1.2764 1.2918 —.0154o 1.305 1.3023 1.3069 —.0046 0 1:349 1.2947 1.2933 +.0014N 1.331 1.3146 1.3108 +.0038 N 1.371 1.3105 1.2951 +.0154D 1.346 1.3291 1.3146 +,0145 D 1.375 1.3246 1.2972 +.0274

1890 1895J 1.355 1.3449 1.3182 +.0267 J 1.363 1.3379 1.2996 +.0383F 1.366 1.3606 1.3219 +.0387 F 1.345 1.3509 1.3019 +.0490M 1.376 1.3746 1.3252 +.0494 M 1.335 1.3635 1.3046 +.0589A 1.381 1.3850 1.3283 +,0567 A 1,331 1.3758 1.3073 +.0685M 1.385 1.3903 1.3312 +.0591 M 1.329 1.3879 1.3101 +.0778J 1.379 1.3893 1.3340 +.0553 J 1.351 1.4001 1.3132 +.0869J 1.361 1.3820 1.3365 +,0455 J 1.386 1.4125 1.3166 +.0959A 1.355 1.3688 1.3386 +,0302 A 1.423 1.4251 1.3200 +.1051S 1.371 1.3515 1.3402 +.0113 S 1.453 1.4374 1.3235 +.1139o 1.377 1.3319 1.3416 —.0097 0 1.479 1.4431 1.3276 +.1205N 1.381 1.3123 1.3427 —.0304 N 1.494 1.4557 1.3316 +.1241D 1.363 1.2949 1.3436 —.0487 D 1.482 1.4583 1.3357 +.1226

1891 1896J' 1.300 1.2813 1.3440 —.0627 J 1.460 1.4547 1.3401 +.1146F 1.240 1.2729 1.3440 —.0711 F 1.437 1.4443 1,3449 +.0994M 1.179 1.2704 1.3438 —.0734 lvi 1.422 1.4276 1.3498 +.0778A 1.144 1.2739 1.3432 —.0693 A 1.420 1.4061 1.3549 +.0512M 1.211 1.2832 1.3424 —.0592 M 1.411 1.3820 1.3600 +.02203 1.312 1.2976 1.3412 —.0436 J 1.396 1.3576 1.3656 —.0080J 1.362 1.3159 1.3400 —.0241 3 1.361 1.3353 1.3712 —.0359A 1.372 1.3367 1.3384 —.0017 A 1.286 1.3167 1.3767 —.0600S 1.390 1.3580 1.3364 +.0216 S 1.208 1.3028 1.3822 —.07940 1.414 1.3776 1.3345 +.0431 0 1.200 1.2944 1.3882 —.0938N 1.423 1.3936 1.3323 +.0613 N 1.259 1.2916 1.3939 —.1023D 1.420 1.4048 1.3301 +.0747 D 1.317 1.2943 1.3998 —.1055

'Except charcoal pig iron.

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A300 APPENDIX

TABLE 31—Continued

PIG IRON PRODtyCTION1 IN ThE UNITED STATES

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1897 1902J 1.349 1.3024 1.4051 —.1027 J 1.666 1.6613 1.6359 +.0254F 1.366 1.3152 1.4107 —.0955 F 1.652 1.6625 1.6373 +.0252M 1.381 1.3321 1.4161 —.0840 M 1.668 1.6636 1.6389 +.0247A 1.386 1.3518 1.4216 —.0698 A 1.692 1.6651 1.6404 +.0247M 1.382 1.3732 1.4268 —.0536 M 1.697 1.6668 1.6421 +.0247J 1.375 1.3948 1.4318 —.0370 J 1.683 1.6690 1.6437 +.02533 1.369 1.4152 1.4367 —.0215 J 1.668 1.6723 1.6453 +.0270A 1.394 1.4335 1.4415 —.0080 A 1.675 1.6769 1.6470 +.0299S 1.434 1.4491 1.4460 +.0031 S 1.675 1.6832 1.6485 +.03470 1.466 1.4618 1.4505 +.0113 0 1.679 1.6908 1.6503 +.0405N 1.489 1.4720 1.4547 +.0173 N 1.679 1.6990 1.6519 +.0471D 1.500 1.4800 1.4589 +.0211 D 1.695 1.7069 1.6538 +.0531

1898 19033 1.500 1.4864 1.4628 +.0236 J 1.677 1.7130 1.6558 +.0572F 1.505 1.4913 1.4667 +.0246 F 1.696 1.7163 1.6579 +.0584M 1.507 1.4950 1.4704 +.0246 M 1.710 1.7160 1.6602 +.0558A 1.505 1.4974 1.4740 +.0234 A 1.729 1.7119 1.6627 +.0492M 1.497 1.4985 1.4776 +.0209 M 1.743 1.7042 1.6653 +.0389J 1.485 1.4984 1.4813 +.0171 3 1.746 1.6935 1.6682 +.02533 1.472 1.4975 1.4851 +.0124 3 1.698 1.6807 1.6714 +.0093A 1.471 1.4964 1.4889 +,0075 A 1.705 1.6664 1.6747 —.0083S 1.482 1.4958 1.4929 +.0029 S 1.714 1.6515 1.6780 —.0265o 1.499 1.4965 1.4971 —.0006 0 1.663 1.6366 1.6819 —.0453N 1.517 1.4987 1.5012 —.0025 N 1.540 1.6226 1.6858 —.0632D 1.526 1.5029 1.5054 —.0025 D 1.436 1.6093 1.6898 —.0805

1899 19043 1.526 1.5088 1.5098 —.0010 J 1.474 1.5988 1.6939 —.0951F 1.511 LSLÔ2 1.5142 +.0020 F 1.620 1.5920 1.6983 —.1063M 1.518 1.5251 1.5189 +.0062 M 1.670 1.5898 1.7029 —.1131A 1.537 1.5350 1.5238 +.0112 A 1.716 1.5930 1.7073 —.1143M 1.543 1.5459 1.5290 +.0169 M 1.695 1.6016 1.7119 —.1103J 1.554 1.5576 1.5340 +.0236 3 1.635 1.6150 1.7163 —.1013J 1.565 1.3699 1.5393 +.0306 3 1.558 1.6319 1.7208 —.0889A 1.570 1.5823 1.5444 +.0379 A 1.578 1.6507 1.7252 —.0745S 1.581 1.3940 1.5497 +.0443 S 1.656 1.6697 1.7296 —.0399o 1.598 1.6041 1.5549 +.0492 0 1.672 1.6878 1.7337 —.0439N 1.612 1.6116 1.5602 +.0514 N 1.695 1.7044 1.7375 —.0331D 1.617 1.6156 1.5653 +.0503 D 1.717 1.7195 1.7412 —.0217

1900 1905J 1.618 1.6154 1.5704 +.0450 J 1.760 1.7333 1.7449 —.0116F 1.618 1.6111 1.5753 +.0358 F 1.756 1.7464 1.7481 —.0017M 1.612 1.6028 1.5800 +.0228 M 1.796 1.7591 1.7512 +.0079A 1.613 1.5916 1.5845 +.0071 A 1.807 1.7714 1.7539 +.0175M 1.618 1.5788 1.5890 —.0102 M 1.802 1.7830 1.7566 +.0264J 1.607 1.5658 1.5931 —.0273 3 1.777 1.7933 1.7588 +.03453 1.563 1.5540 7.5970 —.0430 J 1.750 1.8018 1.7610 +.0408A 1.516 1.5449 1.6005 —.0556 A 1.774 1.8081 1.7629 +.0452S 1.496 1.5392 1.6041 —.0649 S 1.802 1.8123 1.7647 +.0476o 1.480 1.5375 1.6072 —.0697 0 1.821 1.8149 1.7662 +.0487N 1.488 1.5400 1.6102 —.0702 N 1.827 1.8165 1.7677 +.0488D 1.523 1.5466 1.6129 —.0663 D 1.819 1.8177 1.7692 +.0485

1901 1906J 1.573 1.5566 1.6152 —.0586 3 1.824 1.8190 1.7703 +.0487F 1.607 1.5694 1.6176 —.0482 F 1.833 1.8206 1.7716 +.0490M 1.614 1.5838 1.619? —.0359 1.844 1.8222 1.7727 +.0495A 1.621 1.5989 1.6216 —.0227 A 1.840 1.8236 1.7738 +.0498M 1.633 1.6134 1.6233 —.0099 M 1.831 1.8245 1.7745 +.05003 1.640 1.6265 1.6250 +.0015 J 1.819 1.8252 1.7756 +.04963 1.644 1.6375 1.6266 +.0109 3 1.813 1.8260 1.7765 +.0495A 1.638 1.6459 1.6282 +.0177 A 1.793 1.8276 1.7773 +.0503S 1.640 1.6520 1.6298 +.0222 S 1.818 1.8309 1.7780 +.05290 1.649 1.6561 1.6312 +.0249 0 1.850 1.8364 1.7788 +.0576N 1.657 1.6585 1.6328 +.0257 N 1.863 1.8446 1.7795 +.0651D 1.611 1.6601 1.6343 +.0258 D 1.858 1.8549 1.7802 +.0747

1 Except charcoal pig iron.

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1Except charcoal pig iron.

PIG IRON PRODUCTION

TABLE 31—Continued

Pia IRON PRODUCTION1 IN THE UNITED STATES

Date

A301

1 2 3 4 Date1907JFMAMJJAS0ND

1.8521.8641 .8561.8691.8701.8721 .8621.8611.8621.8171 .785

1.600

1 2 3

1.86611.87351.88441. 88 731. 88361.87221.85311. 82681. 79451.75841. 12061.6835

1. 78091. 78141.78191. 78221. 78261. 78281.78271.78261. 78241. 78201. 78151. 7809

+ .0852+.0921+.1025+. 1051+. 10 10+.0894+.0704+.0442+.0121—.0236— .0609—.0974

1908JFMAMJJAS0ND

1.5281.5701.5981 .5841.5751.5611.5941.6421.6751 . 7041.7211.749

1.64971.62141,60011,58751.58381,58901.60191 . 621 1

1.64441. 66991.69571,7205

1.78021.77951.77861.77791.77711. 7 7641. 7 7581.77541. 77511.77491.77491. 7752

—.1305—.1581—.1785—.1904—. 1933—.18 74—.1739—.1543—.1307—.1050—.0792— .0547

1.7631.7851.7721.7631.7841.8091.8321.8611.9001.9241.9291.930

1 .74351.76461.78411.80241.81991.83741. 85461.87141.88731 .90151.91291.9201

1.77571.77641. 77 741. 7 7881.78011.78191.78391.78621.78871. 79141.79441. 7977

—.0322—.0118+ .0067+.0236+.0398+.0555+.0707+.0852+.0986+. 1101+ . 1185+. 1230

1912JFMAM

AS0ND

1913JFMAMJJAS0ND

1914JFMAMJJAS0ND

19153FMAM33AS0ND

1916

MAM

AS0N

1909JFMAMJ3AS0ND

1910JFMAM33AS0ND

1.8221.8601.8901.8991.9091.9101.8911.9091.9151.9381 .9431.953

1.9551.9661 .9501.9631.9591.9431.9171.9141.9221.9151.8721.806

1.7841.8291.8791.8791.8291.8061 .8001.8091.7981.7591.7041.689

1.7131.7771.8231.8491.8631.9001.9171.9531.9782.0032.0052.014

2.0122.0272.0322 .0322 .0352.0302.0172.0142.0282.0542.0432.011

1. 84581.85671.86791.87941 .89081.90191,91251.92251.93161. 93991 .94691. 9525

1.95621.95751. 95611. 95 181.94491.93581.92521.91381. 90231.89111.88041.8699

1 .85931. 84811. 83621.82341 .81001.79651. 78361.77221.76311. 75 741. 75581. 7590

1. 76761.78191.80151. 82591.85381. 88361. 91361. 94201. 96 74

1. 98892.00592.0184

2.02692.03192.03412.03422.03282.03052.02792.02552.02392.02342.02402.0254

4

—. 0290—.0177—. 0061

+ .0182+.0305+.04-22+ .0534+.0636+.0731+.0812+.0876

+.0922±.0940+ .0930+ .0890+.0820+.0726+ .0615+.0492+.0368+.0244+.0123+ .0003

—.0120—.0251—.0389—.0538—.0696—.0855—.1009—.11.49—.1269—.1355—.1403—.1402

—.1347—.1239—.1077—.0870— .0628— .0369—.0108+.0137+.0352+.0525+0656+.0741

+.0785+ .0794+.0775+.0735+.0682+.0617+.05s0+ .0485+.0428+.0378+.0342+ .0314

1.87481.87441.87401.87351. 87261.87141.87031 .869.11.86801.86681.86571 .8649

1.86401. 86351.86311. 86281.86291.86321.86371 .86461.86551.86671.86811 .8696

1.87131.87321.87511.87721.81961.88201.88451.88711.89001.89291.89611.8992

1. 90231. 90581. 90921. 91291.91661. 92051. 92441. 92831. 93221. 93641.94031.9443

1. 94841 .95251.95661.96071.96461.96881.97291.97701. 98111. 98561.98981.9940

1.9251.9331.9271.9181.8871.8781.8411.8321.8361.8291.8041.759

1. 92431. 92301. 91721. 90711. 89371.87821. 86191.84591. 83121.81831.80771. 7994

1.80111 .80481.80861.81241.81641. 82071. 82481. 82911. 83341. 83771. 84191. 8459

+.1232+.1182+,1086+.0947+.0773+.0575+ .0371+.0168—.0022—.0194— .0342— .0465

1911

MAM

&

1.7541 .8071 . 8451.8381.7861.7751.7621.7931.8231.8311.8241.819

1. 79341. 78941. 78741. 78731. 78891. 79211. 79671.80261. 80951. 81731.82601.8356

1. 85001.85371.85741.86071.86361.86621.86841. 8 7041.87211.87321.87401.8744

— .0566— .0643—.0700— .0734— .0747—.0741—.07 17—.0678—.0626—.0559— .0480— .0388 D

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A302 APPENDIX

TABLE 31—Continued

PIG IRON PRoDUcTIoN' IN THE STATES

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1917 1922J 2.007 2.0272 1.9981 +.0291 3 1.725 1.6958 1.8407 —.1449F 1.975 2.0284 2.0023 +.0261 F 1.765 1.7357 1.8427 —.1070M 2.021 2.0286 2.0064 +.0222 lvi 1.818 1.7734 1.8452 —.0718A 2.046 2.0273 2.0104 +.0169 A 1.839 1.8071 1.8479 —.0408M 2.042 2.0243 2.0142 +.0101 M 1.872 1.8365 1.8311 —.0146J 2.037 2.0198 2.0176 +.0022 3 1.896 1.8619 1.8546 +.0073J 2.033 2.0142 2.0207 —.0065 J 1.890 1.8844 1.8583 +.026LA 2.020 2.0081 2.0237 —.0156 A 1.768 1.9049 1.8623 +.0426S 2.019 2.0021 2.0262 —.0241 S 1.831 1.9248 1.2663 +.0.5850 2.028 1.9968 2.0284 —.0316 0 1.930 1.9445 1.8707 +.0738N 2.029 1.9930 2.0296 —.0366 N 1,978 1.9643 1.8753 +.0890D 1.968 1.9912 2.0302 —.0390 D 1.998 1.9840 1.8801 +.1039

1918 1923J 1.891 1.9920 2.0304 —.0384 J 2.018 2.0033 1.8849 +.1184F 1.918 1.9956 2.0297 —.0341 F 2.029 2.0212 1.8898 +.1314M 2.016 2.0020 2.0284 —.0264 M 2.056 2.0372 1.8949 +.1423A 2.040 2.0109 2.0266 —.0157 A 2.073 2.0508 1.9001 +.1507M 2.046 2.0215 2.0242 —.0027 M 2.096 2.0614 1.9055 +.1559J 2.045 2.0327 2.0210 +.0117 J 2.088 2.0683 1.9106 +.1577J 2.043 2.0426 2.0171 +.0255 J 2.074 2.0709 1.9159 +.1550A 2.039 2.0497 2.0126 +,0371 A 2.046 2.0686 1.9212 +.1474S 2.057 2.0523 2.0070 +.0453 S 2.018 2.0606 1.9269 +.1337O 2.051 2.0492 2.0015 +.0477 0 2.007 2.0471 1.9322 +.1149N 2.048 2.0398 1.9952 +.0446 N 1.984 2.0284 1.9376 +.0908D 2.044 2.0247 1.9886 +.0361 D 1.974 2.0057 1.9429 +.0628

1919 1924J 2.027 2.0051 1.9813 +.0238 J 1.988 1.9808 1.9483 +.0325F 2.021 1.9823 1.9739 +.0084 F 2.025 1.9559 1.9536 +.0023M 1.999 1.9587 1.9664 —.0077 M 2.048 1.9333 1.9587 —.0254A 1917 1.9341 1.9590 —.0249 A 2.033 1.9148 1.9637 —.0489M 1.833 1.9165 1.9513 —.0348 M 1.926 1.9016 1.9687 —.06713 1.848 1.9010 1.9440 —.0430 3 1.830 1.8942 1.9734 —.0792J 1.894 1.8907 1.9366 —.0459 J 1.760 1.8924 1.9779 —.0835A 1.947 1.8860 1.9291 —.0431 A 1.784 1.8955 1.9822 —.0867S 1.919 1.8871 1,9215 —.0344 S 1.835 1.9028 1.9859 —.08310 1.779 1.8936 1.9146 —.0210 0 1.903 1.9132 1.9894 —.0762N 1.902 1.9054 1.9078 —.0024 N 1.923 1.9258 1.9915 —.0657D 1.929 1.9218 1.9011 +.0207 D 1.980 1.9399 1.9953 —.0554

1920 1925J 1.988 1.9418 1.8952 +.0466 J 2.036 1.9544 1.9978 —.0434F 2.012 1.9643 1.8893 +.0750 F 2.060 1.9683 1.9997 —.0314M 2.037 1,9876 1.8838 +.1038 M 2.061 1.9807 2,0013 —.0206A 1.961 2.0092 1.8787 +.1305 A 2.036 1.9904 2.0025 —.0121lvi 1.984 2.0270 1.8738 +.1532 M 1.976 1.9969 2.0034 —.0065J 2.006 2.0383 1.8693 +.1690 J 1.930 2.0000 2.0037 —.00373' 1.995 2.0407 1.8651 +.1756 J 1.934 2.0002 2.0039 —.0037A 2.007 2.0324 1.8611 +.1713 A 1.941 1.9986 2.0040 —.0054S 2.018 2.0125 1.8572 +.1553 S 1.958 1.9966 2.0039 —.0073o 2.026 1.9811 1.8537 +.1274 0 1.989 1.9959 2.0038 —.0079N 1.990 1.9388 1.8504 +.0884 N 2.003 1.9972 2.0034 —.0062D 1.941 1.8877 1.8476 +.0401 D 2.021 2.0011 2.0030 —.0019

1921 1926J 1.892 1.8308 1.8451 —.0143 J 2.029 2.0072 2.0026 +.00461? 1.840 1.7715 1.8427 —.0712 F 2.019 2.0145 2.0024 +.0123M 1.712 1.7135 1.8407 —.1272 M 2.045 2.0218 2.0025 +.0193A 1.600 1.6608 1.8391 —.1783 A 2.061 2.0281 2.0027 +.0254M 1.595 1.6168 1.8378 —.2210 M 2.050 2.0327 2.0030 +.0297J 1.550 1.5842 1.8371 —.2529 J 2.033 2.0353 2.0038 +.0315J 1.445 1.5650 1.8366 —.2716 J 2.017 2.0363 2.0048 +.0315A 1.488 1.5600 1.8364 —.2764 A 2.014 2.0359 2.0059 +.0300S 1.517 1.5684 1.8362 —.2678 S 2.019 2.0348 2.0073 +.02750 1.604 1.5890 1.8369 —.2479 0 2.032 2.0333 2.0091 +.0242N 1.674 1.6193 1.8378 —.2185 N 2.033 2.0315 2.0109 +.0206D 1.726 1.6560 1.8391 —.1831 D 1.999 2.0293 2.0131 +.0162

1 Except. charcoal pig iron.

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PIG IRON PRODUCTION A303

TABLE 31—Concluded

PIG IRON PRODUCTION' IN THE UNITED STATES

Date 1 2 3 4 Date 1 2 3 4

1927 1932j 2.001 2.0264 2.0155 +.0109 J 1.497 1.5093F 2.021 2.0226 2.0181 +,0045 F 1.522 1.4750M 2.051 2.0177 2.0207 —.0030 M 1.494 1.4407A 2.057 2.0119 2.0235 —.0116 A 1.454 1.4062M 2.039 2.0054 2.0264 —.0210 M 1.403 1.3719

J 2.013 1.9986 2.0294 —.0308 J 1.321 1.3386J 1.979 1.9920 2.0323 —.0403 J 1.266 1,3081A 1.978 1.9859 2.0351 —.0492 A 1.233 1.2827S 1.966 1.9808 2.0376 —0568 S 1.296 1.2651

0 1.953 1.9770 2.0404 —.0634 0 1.318 1.2579N 1.946 1.9748 2.0428 —.0680 N 1.323 1.2624D 1.939 1.9743 2.0450 —.0707 D 1.246 1.2787

1928 1933J 1.966 1.9756 2.0470 —.0714 j 1.264 1.3057F 2.000 1.9788 2.0487 —.0699 F 1.297 1.3411M 2.014 1.9836 —.0666 M 1.243 1.3823A 2.026 1.9896 2.0513 —.0617 A 1.318 1.4271M 2.025 1.9965 2.0522 —.0557 M 1.457 1.4734

J 2.012 2.0040 2.0523 —.0483 3 1.625 1.5200j 1.996 2.0118 2.0520 —.0402 J 1.762 1.5655A 2.005 2.0198 2.0513 —.0315 A 1.772 1.6086S 2.009 2.0280 2.0501 —.0221 S 1.705 1.6470O 2.037 2.0364 2.0484 —.0120 0 1.641 1.6785N 2.042 2.0449 2.0458 —.0009 N 1.558 1.7006ID 2.036 2.0532 2.0423 +.0109 D 1.581 1.7119

1929 1934j 2.045 2.0609 2.0380 +.0229 J [.593 1.7118F 2.059 2.0676 2.0326 +.0350 F 1.654 1.7021M 2.079 2.0726 2.0268 +.0438 M 1.718 1.6854A 2.087 2.0755 2.0205 +.0330 A 1.761 1.6650M 2.100 2.0762 2.0138 +.0624 M 1.819

3 2.093 2.0748 3 1.8083 2.087 2.0117 J 1.597A 2.083 2.0671 A 1.532S 2.067 2.0616 S 1.476O 2.064 2.0540 0 1.487

N 2.026 2.0474 N 1.504D 1.961' 2.0380 D 1.520

1930 1935

J 1.960 2.0266 3 1.678F 2.006 2.0129 F 1.759M 2.020 1.9970 M 1.757A 2.026 1.9792 A 1.744M 2.018 1.9602 1.746

J 1.990 1.9407 J 1.714J 1.930 1.9211 J 1.691A 1.911 1.9019 A 1.754S 1.880 L8829 S 1.7720 1.844 1.8638 0 1.805N 1.794 1.8444 N 1.838P 1.730 1.8246 D 1.832

1931 . 1936J 1.743 1.8046 J 1.815

F 1.785 1.7846M 1.817 1.7649A 1.828 1.7459M 1.808 1.7270J 1.737 1.7077J 1.674 1.6869A 1.616 1.6636S 1.591 1.63740 1.578 1.6081N 1.566 1.5765P 1.500 1.5433

1 Except charcoal pig iron.

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A304 APPENDIX

TABLE 32

UNITED STATES BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS INDEX NUMBER OFWHOLESALE PRICES OF COMMODITIES, MONTHLY,

JANUARY 1890- JANUARY 1936

Col. 1. Logarithms of Index.Col. 2. Cyclical Curve (logarithms).

For details of the nature of the graduation given in Column 2 ofthis table, see Appendix D.

Page 306: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

WHOLESALE PRICES

1

TABLE 32

2

A305

I 2 1 2

1.73801. 73881.74041. 7 4121.74511 .74351.74591.76191.76641.76421.75661. 7528

1

1. 73961.74061. 74201. 74381.74601.74831. 75071. 75311. 75521. 75711. 75851. 7595

2

1 .67391.61121.67391.69551. 69981. 70241 .69901. 69461. 69021. 69371. 69021.6840

1.68321.68571.68821.69041,69221.69361 .69431.69421.69321.69111 .68801.6842

1. 75591. 75821. 75821. 75 741.74901 . 74431. 74661. 74591. 74901. 742 71 . 74351. 7412

1.75241.75431.75531.75531. 75 451.75291. 75091. 74831.74561. 74311. 74081.. 7390

I

1.78251.78531.78031. 7810i.77311 .77311. 7 7381. 77891.77531.77741. 77891. 7853

1.77921.77931. 7 7931. 7 7921.77901.77881 . 77851 . 77841 . 77841. 77851.77881. 7 796

1893JFMAMJJAS0ND896JFMAMJJAS0ND

1897JFMAMJJAS0ND

1. 74901. 75281. 76191.76491. 75971. 74661. 74431.74351. 73881.73721. 73481. 7308

1.75981. 75941. 75 851.75691. 75471. 75 191. 74851. 74451. 73991. 73491. 72961. 7244

1. 68121.67671.67121. 66931.66281.65801.65421.65421.65611.66841.68221. 67 76

1.68001. 673 71. 67 181.66851.66611. 66441. 66341.66291 .66281.66291.66311.6635

1900JFMAMJJAS0ND

1901JFMAM

AS0ND

1902JFMAMJJAS0ND

1

1. 74191. 73801.73641.73561. 73321. 73321. 73641. 74351.74901.74901. 75281.7612

1. 73771. 73691.73681.73711. 73 791. 73911. 74061.74231.74411. 74621.74841. 7507

1905JFMAMJiS0ND

19063FMAM33AS0ND

1907JFMAMJ3AS0ND

1 . 78601.78391 . 78251 .78601.7875j.78751.77601 . 7868i.79031 . 79801 .80351 . 8082

1. 78041. 78151.78261.78391. 78531.78691 . 78861 . 79071.79311. 79601. 79931.8030

18903FMAM

JAS0ND

18913FMAM

JAS0ND

8923FMA

I;1893

JFMAM

0N

1894IFMAM

AS0ND

1. 72181. 7 1931. 7 1271.70331. 70591. 70501.71521. 7 1931. 72021 .72431. 73241. 7404

1. 71961. 7 1551.71261.71111. 71121. 71281.71581. 71981. 72441. 72921. 73371. 7376

1. 66931. 66561. 66561. 66091.65801.65321.65611. 67301.68571.68221.68031.6822

1.66381. 66421.66471.66531.66621.66731. 66891. 67111.67371.67671. 67991. 6829

1. 75 441. 75 361. 75211.75891. 765 71. 76941. 77161. 76341. 7 6861. 80071.78321. 7889

1. 75331. 75611. 75921. 76241.76591. 76951.77311. 7 7631. 7 7951.78201. 78371. 7846

1.80621. 81221.80821. 80961.81691. 82021. 82021. 82021. 82281. 82541.81021. 8007

1.80691. 81061. 8 1401. 81661.81831.81891.81841. 81691.81461. 81171.80851.8053

1. 75281. 75741.74971. 745 11.74041. 72591. 7 1521.70161.71601. 72351 .70931. 7024

1. 74061. 74231. 74271. 74151. 73871. 73441. 72891. 72251.71561. 70881. 70241 .6967

I1. 68121. 68661. 68841. 68931.71431. 68401.68121. 68121.67941.67851.68121 .6840

1.68551.68741.68831.68881. 68831.68741. 68611.68491. 68 391. 68351.68381. 6849

I . 79661.79241. 78031.77821.77091. 7 7091.76791.76941. 7 7451. 76861. 765 71. 7649

1. 78461.78391. 78241. 78061.77841. 7 7621. 7 7421.71241. 77 101.77001. 76951. 7694

1898JFMAMI3AS0ND

1899IFMAM3IAS0ND

1. 79451. 78821.79101. 79381.79381. 79661 .80001.79931.80141. 80281. 80691. 8116

1 .80211 .79931. 79691. 79531.79441. 79441. 79531 . 79691.79921. 80 191.80491.8080

1903JFMAMJJAS0ND

1904

I?MAMJAS0ND

1.69551 .68661.67671.67491.67211.67391.67671. 68401. 69551. 68311. 68031. 6767

1.69191.68791 .68461. 68191. 67971. 67801. 67671.67621. 67631.67721. 6787

908JFMAMJJAS0ND

1909JFMAMJJAS0ND

1. 68931 .69641.69721.70421. 70501. 7 1011.71321. 72431. 73721. 74351. 74661. 7536

1. 68721 .69061.69521. 70081. 70721. 71421. 72141. 72831 . 73481. 74061. 74551 .74941 .6808

1.77601. 78321.78181. 77311. 76721. 76641. 76721. 77231. 77671. 77 741.78321.7860

1. 76971. 7 7031. 77111. 77211. 7 7321. 7 7441.77541. 7 7641. 7 7721. 7 7801.77831 7789

1.8 1021. 8 1221. 8 1431. 82091. 82801.83121.83191. 83381. 83821. 84631. 85071 8549

1. 81121. 81441.81771.82121.82491.82881. 83301. 83741. 84181.84611.85011.8535

Page 307: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A306 APPENDIX

TABLE 32—Continued

1 2 1 2 . 1 2 1 2

1910 — 1915 1920 1925J 1.8537 1.8563 J 1.8332 1.8331 3 2.1965 J 2.0124 2.0043F 1.8531 1.8582 F 1.8363 1.8326 F 2.1962 2.2066 F 2.0170 2.0078M 1.8627 1.8590 M 1.8338 1.8323 M 2.2003 2.2141 M 2.0179 2.0110A 1.8645 1.8587 A 1.8370 1.8324 A 2.2188 2.2183 A 2.0082 2.0137M 1.8573 1.8572 M 1.8389 1.8332 M 2.2232 2.2182 M 2.0069 2.01583 1.8513 1.8544 J 1.8344 1.8351 3 2.2214 2.2134 J 2.0128 2.0170J 1.8513 1.8505 J 1.8407 1.8381 3 2.2196 2.2036 J 2.0183 2.0175A 1.8500 1.8455 A 1.8363 1.8422 A 2.2079 2.1890 A 2.0166 2.0172S 1.8445 1.8399 S 1.8344 1.8474 S 2.1909 2.1700 S 2.0145 2.01640 1.8319 1.8339 0 1.8463 1.8535 0 2.1590 2.1476 0 2.0154 2.0153N 1.8222 1.8278 N 1.8555 1.8603 N 2.1252 2.1226 N 2.0191 2.0139D 1.8235 1.8220 D 1.8592 1.8676 D 2.0817 2.0964 D 2.0145 2.0124

1911 1916 1921 19263 1,8202 1.8168 J 1.8865 1.8754 3 2.0569 2.0703 J 2.0137 2.0109F 1.8089 1.8124 F 1.8949 1.8835 F 2.0208 2.0453 F 2.0086 2.0094M 1.8109 1.8090 M 1.9053 1.8919 M 2.0103 2.0226 M 2.0026 2.0078A 1.8014 1.8067 A 1.9122 1.9006 A 1.9952 2.0031 A 2.0013 2.0061M 1.7993 1.8055 M 1.9165 1.9098 M 1.9832 1.9871 M 2.0022 2.00423 1.7993 1.8053 3 1.9186 1.9196 J 1.9704 1.9751 J 2.0017 2.0021J 1.8055 1.8062 3 1.9212 1.9300 J 1.9704 1.9668 J 1.9978 1.9998A 1.8162 1.8081 A 1.9299 1.9413 A 1.9708 1.9619 A 1.9961 1.9972S 1.8202 1.8107 S 1.9390 1.9535 S 1.9704 1.9598 S 1.9987 1.99450 1.8209 1.8139 0 1.9595 1.9667 0 1.9736 1.9600 0 1.9974 1.9918N 1.8189 1.8175 N 1.9886 1.9809 N 1.9741 1.9616 N 1.9930 1.9891D 1.8149 1.8213 D 1.9965 1.9958 D 1.9680 1.9642 D 1.9908 1.9866

1912 1917 1922 19273 1.8195 1.8252 3 2.0090 2.0111 J 1.9610 1.9673 3 1.9845 1.9842F 1.8241 1.8290 F 2.0191 2.0263 F 1.9680 1.9705 F 1.9814 1.9822M 1.8293 1.8325 M 2.0322 2.0407 M 1.9676 1.9739 M 1.9764 1.9804A 1.8432 1.8357 A 2.0573 2.0539 A 1.9694 1.9775 A 1.9736 1.9790M 1.8451 1.8386 M 2.0817 2.0654 M 1.9827 1.9812 M 1.9741 1.9779J 1,8389 1.8410 J 2.0864 2.0749 J 1.9836 1.9853 J 1.9736 1.97733 1.8382 1.8429 3 2.0899 2.0822 3 1.9974 1.9895 3 1.9745 1.9772A 1.8432 1.8444 A 2.0962 2.0876 A 1.9939 1.9939 A 1.9786 1.9176S 1.8482 1.8453 S 2.0917 2.0913 S 1.9970 1.9981 S 1.9836 1.9783o 1.8500 1.8459 0 2.0871 2.0938 0 1.9983 2.0019 0 1.9850 1.9795N 1.8463 1.8460 N 2.0892 2.0957 N 2.0022 2.OOSI N 1.9836 1.9809D 1.8457 1.8460 D 2.0896 2.0973 D 2.0030 2.0074 D 1.9841 1.9825

1913 1918 1923 19283 1.8470 1.8458 3 2.0969 2.0992 J 2.0086 2.0088 J 1.9841 1.9839F 1.8439 1.g455 F 2.0888 2.1015 F 2.0141 2.0094 F 1.9814 1.9852M 1.8445 1.8452 M 2.1018 2.1044 M 2.0191 2.0092 M 1.9800 1.9862A 1.8432 1.8448 A 2.1082 2.1078 A 2.0166 2.0083 A 1.9850 1.9868M 1.8382 1.8445 M 2.1076 2.1114 lvi 2.0082 2.0071 M 1.9890 1.9871J 1.8389 1.8440 3 2.1106 2.1152 J 2.0013 2.0055 J 1.9854 1.98703 1.8420 1.8435 3 2.1206 2.1188 3 1.9930 2.0036 J 1.9886 1.9867A 1.8432 1.8427 A 2.1281 2.1220 A 1.9903 2.0015 A 1.9895 1.9862S 1.8488 1.8419 S 2.1383 2.1246 S 1.9987 1.9992 S 1.9939 1.9865o 1.8476 1.8410 0 2.1345 2.1265 0 1.9974 1.9967 0 1.9854 1.9849N 1.8457 1.8400 N 2.1345 2.1276 N 1.9930 1.9942 N 1.9814 1.9843D 1.8395 1.8389 D 2.1345 2.1281 D 1.9917 1.9918 D 1.9814 1.9838

1914 1919 1924 1929J 1.8363 1.8378 3 2.1284 2.1281 3 1.9983 1.9896 J 1.9818 1.9833F 1.8344 1.8368 F 2.1133 2.1280 F 1.9987 1.9878 F 1.9796 1.9828M 1.8325 1.8357 M 2.1183 2.1279 M 1.9934 1.9866 M. 1.9827 1.9824A 1.8300 1.8347 A 2.1239 2.1284 A 1.9881 1.9859 A 1.9800 1.9820M 1.8287 1.8340 M 2.1313 2.1298 M 1.9818 1.9859 M 1.9764 1.9816J 1.8287 1.8334 3 2.1323 2.1326 3 1.9773 1.9865 J 1.9786 1.9811J 1.8280 1.8331 3 2.1495 2.1371 3 1.9805 1.9877 3 1.9845 1.9806A 1.8426 1.8332 A 2.1593 2.1435 A 1.9868 1.9894 A 1.9836 1.9795S 1.8463 1.8333 S 2.1495 2.1518 S 1.9872 1.9916 S 1.9827 1.97810 1.8325 1.8336 0 2.1511 2,1619 0 1.9921 1.9943 0 1.9782 1.9761N 1.8293 1.8337 N 2.1599 2.1733 N 1.9961 1.9974 N 1.9708 1.9736D 1.8280 1.8335 D 2.1775 2.1851 D 2.0065 2.0008 D 1.9699 1.9704

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WHOLESALE PRICES A307

TABLE 32—Concluded

1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2

1930 1932 —— 1934 1936J 1.9661 1.9666 3 1.8280 1.8310 3 1.8585 1.8620 3 1.9063F 1.9610 1.9622 F 1.8215 1.8275 F 1.8669 1.8658M 1.9552 1.9574 M 1.8195 1.8241 M 1.8675 1.8685A 1.9542 1.9321 A 1.8162 1.8206 A 1.8651 1.8707M 1.9484 1.9464 M 1.8089 1.8168 M 1.8675J 1.9385 1.9404 J 1.8055 1.8127 3 1.8727J 1.9263 1.9340 J 1.8096 1.8084 J 1.8739A 1.9258 1.9273 A 1.8143 1.8040 A 1.8831S 1.9263 1.9207 S 1.8149 1.7999 S 1.8899o 1.9191 1.9139 0 1.8089 1.7965 0 1.8837N 1.9101 1.9070 N 1.8055 1.7939 N 1.8837D 1.9009 1.9003 D 1.7966 1.7926 D 1.8859

1931 1933 1935J 1.8932 1.8937 J 1.7853 1.7925 3 1.8965F 1.8854 1.8873 F 1.7767 1.7939 F 1.9004M 1.8808 1.8812 M 1.7796 1.7967 M 1.8998A 1.8739 1.8754 A 1.7810 1.8009 A 1.9036M 1.8645 1.8697 M 1.7973 1.8064 M 1.9042J 1.8579 1.8641 3 1.8129 1.8130 J 1.9020J 1.8573 1.8586 J 1.8382 1.8204 3 1.8998A 1.8579 1.8532 A 1.8420 1.8283 A 1.9058S 1.8525 1.8480 S 1.8500 1.8364 S 1.90690 1.8470 1.8432 0 1.8525 1.8441 0 1.9058N 1.8463 1.8387 N 1.8519 1.8512 N 1.9063D 1.8363 1.8346 D 1.8500 1.8572 D 1.9080

Page 309: APPENDICES - National Bureau of Economic Research · APPENDICES (1. RAILROAD AND BOND YIELDS A3 APPENDIX A THE FIGURES for the cyclical and cycle-eliminating curves and other mathematical

A308 APPENDIX

TABLE 33

C. MITCHELL'S DATES OF HIGHGENERAL BUSINESS IN THE UNITED

AND Low POINTSSTATES

June. . -.

June

1857

1929

Low

March

mic Research

1933

DR. WESLEY

(See Recent Economic Changes, Vol. II, p. 892, National Bureau of EconoInc., 1929.)

High

IN

October 1860DecemberJune

18581861

April....June....

18651869

DecemberDecember

18671870

October 1873 March 1879MarchMarchJulyJanuary ..December

18821887189018931895

MayApril

MayJuneJune

18851888189118941897

June 1899 December 1900SeptemberMayJanuaryJanuaryAugustJanuaryMayOctober

19021907191019131918192019231926

AugustJuneJanuaryDecemberAprilSeptemberJulyDecember

19041908191219141919192119241927