APF Trading Technical Analysis Market commentary 22 feb 2011

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS22 FEB 2011

APF Trading

MARKET COMMENTARY

APF Trading

9 Battery Road12F Straits Trading Building

Singapore 049910   

Jay [email protected]

 Glenn Ho

[email protected] 

Website:www.apftrading.com

www.asiapacfinance.com

STOCK EXCHANGE OF THAILAND INDEX

STOCK EXCHANGE OF THAILAND INDEX

Index top was formed with the completion of TD Sequential Sell Countdown. TD Risk level at 1114.6201 was not tested and the index slide downwards slightly to break the Tenkan Sen and converged with the Kijun Sen.

Index closed below the Kijun Sen 2 weeks ago and the bulls put up a strong fight ending above the Kijun once again last week.

The Kumo would provide good support. Also notice that the Kijun Sen, Senkou A and Senkou B all angle upwards.

Looking at the current picture we expect the rally to be intact.

However we are cautious of the scenario when the Chikou Span breaks below prices and the Tenkan Sen crosses below the Kijun Sen.

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

The last time the index touched Kijun Sen was in June 2010.

Within the next month, if the index does not rally beyond the close 26 weeks ago, the bull trend would be weaken with the Chikou below prices.

The TD Sequential Risk Level at 3880.8699 serves as the near term resistance. The 23.6% Fibo Retracement level at 3153.932 serves as the near term support after the Kijun Sen.

The Kumo support is strong. We expect prices to hover above the Kumo

Bursa Malaysia

Bursa Malaysia

Stock indices of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia all show similar price developments. The interim top was also formed with the completion of the TD Sequential Sell Countdown. Risk level at 1634.99 was not tested and the index slide off.

The Kumo would provide strong support. Index has converged back to the Kijun Sen in a healthy correction move.

We expect the correction to find support at the Kijun Sen and then the Senkou A.

GOLD SPOT

GOLD SPOT

A clear bull trend with the Chikou above prices, Tenkan Sen above Kijun Sen, upward trending think Kumo and prices above the Kijun Sen

A classic rubber band effect which we always talk about happened 1 month ago which pulls prices to converge with the Kijun Sen.

Right after that prices continued its upward climb shooting above the Tenkan Sen once again.

We expect the upward trend to continue.

EURNZD

EURNZD

TD Sequential Buy Countdown was completed in Jan 2011, forming the interim bottom without testing the risk level at 1.6359. Since then the prices had a price flip and a sell setup is in play.

On the ichimoku indicators, prices are rallying for the past weeks into the strong resistance region formed by the Kumo. This is a good chance to take profits on shorts. Both the Kijun and Tenkan Sen are currently horizontal.

We expect prices to go sideways with immediate resistance being the Kumo.

USDTHB

USDTHB

US Dollars had a good bounce off the TD Sequential Risk level at 29.39. At present, the Tenkan Sen crossed above the Kijun Sen. This is a weak bullish cross over as the Kumo above is still providing good resistance.

We await confirmation from the Chikou crossing above prices to lend any extra hand to the bulls.

Shorts would find it a good time to take profits off the table after a long down trend since June 2009.

EVA AIRWAYS

EVA AIRWAYS

Eva Airways had a TD sell countdown completion and prices retreated just shy of the TD Risk Level at 38.30. Prices then broke downwards past the Tenkan Sen and Kijun while TD Buy setup is in the process.

The Kumo is seen to be at its peak thickness. At times, this is seen as a turning point.

Prices would find support at the Kumo. A drop in prices at such a fast and furious rate might see a consolidation around the Kumo. The TDST at 22.90 is another key level to watch.

YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING HOLDINGS

YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING HOLDINGS

Yangzijiang’s share price retreated back to the Kijun Sen following the completion of TD Sequential Sell Countdown, suggesting market exhaustion.

The current TD Setup is compressed together. Prices are holding well above the Kijun Sen too. At the same time the Kumo is sloping higher. The thickness of the Kumo also suggested its strength in being a key support region.

We expect the bull rally to be intact and this pullback to the Kijun Sen is a good chance to enter long.

SINGAPORE AIRLINES

SINGAPORE AIRLINES

We like this chart in particular due to the concurrent occurrence the Kumo twist, prices breaking below the Kumo and the Chikou entering the Kumo.

The Tenkan Sen had a weak bearish crossover below the Kijun Sen before these.

We expect prices to drop further.

METROPOLITAN BANK & TRUST

METROPOLITAN BANK & TRUST

After the TD Sequential Sell Countdown completion, prices retreated after testing the Risk level at 77.65 on a unqualified basis (represented by dotted line).

Tenkan Sen crossed below the Kijun Sen forming a weak bearish crossover. Prices are now inside the Kumo and Chikou had broken down of prices concurrently.

Should prices break out of the Kumo, we expect the down trend to continue.

GENTING BHD

GENTING BHD

On the weekly charts, the bullish crossover of Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen resulted in a strong bull rally that lasted for 7 months now.

For the first time since July 2010, prices are converging back to the Kijun Sen in a rubber effect, a classic mean reverting sign that we always talk about. For the past 2 weeks prices refused to close significantly lower than the Kijun Sen, clinging on to it for support. Although the Tenkan Sen is horizontal at the moment, the Kijun Sen is still sloping upwards.

The Chikou Span is still sitting well above prices. This simply means that current close price is higher than prices 26 weeks ago, suggesting the bull trend is strong.

The Kumo is thickening and sloping upwards. The strength of the support from the Kumo region is growing stronger.

We expect prices to continue its rally longer term. The current pullback could present a good chance for longs to re-enter. The first line of defence is the 23.6% retracement at 9.891.

GENTING BHD

GENTING BHD

On the longer term, the bull trend is aligned to the weekly charts. With a thickening upward sloping Kumo on the monthly charts, together with prices above Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, the bull trend is intact.

However we are cautious of a short term pullback to the Tenkan Sen in a mean reverting manner. This is in line with our weekly view that the first line of defence is at 9.891.

The next support level is the current Tenkan Sen on monthly charts at 9.31, after which is the Kijun Sen at 7.53. Kijun Sen coincides with the 50% retracement as well.

AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP

AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP

A strong bullish Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen crossover happened 2 weeks ago. At the same time the Kumo twist happened not long before with the Kumo thickening. Chikou Span is also above the prices now.

The recent pullback towards the Tenkan Sen presents a good chance to enter long with good risk reward ratio.

A stop loss level can be placed at the bottom of the Kumo at 23.09

BOC HONG KONG HOLDINGS

BOC HONG KONG HOLDINGS

TD Sequential completed Sell Countdown and prices reversed with interim resistance (stop loss) at 32.20. Prices then converged towards the Tenkan Sen and then the Kijun Sen. A current TD Setup is forming, suggesting a down trend might be forming. The Chikou Span is about to break below prices. We do not suggest anticipation. Rather it makes more sense to act upon price confirmation. Thus we are cautious of the Chikou Span and await confirmation.

Although the future Kumo is thick, the current Kumo is thinner and this could give the bears a chance to break below it.

We would watch out for any bearish signs or triggers in coming months.

CNOOC

CNOOC

<update to 26 Jan commentary> As per our past commentary on CNOOC,

we commented that a good chance to re enter longs would be a pullback to the Kijun Sen or Kumo.

Prices did pullback to the Kijun Sen and close above it. Since then prices bounced higher. We maintain the view that the bull trend is intact.

CHINA LIFE INSURANCE

CHINA LIFE INSURANCE

TD buy setup is forming with the count 6 currently achieved suggesting the possibility of the formation of bearish momentum.

This is aligned to the strong bearish Tenkan Sen/ Kijun Sen crossover. Chikou Span is below prices and the Kumo future is bearish.

We expect the bearish trend to continue with near term support being 28.15.

TOYOTA

TOYOTA

A weak bullish crossover of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen saw the prices break out of the Kumo in a significant manner. At the same time the Chikou Span broke out of the Kumo as well.

Also a Kumo twist happened at about the same time. We expect a bull trend to be starting to form. This offers a good chance to go long with a stop at the Tenkan Sen (3577.5) or Kijun Sen (3377.5)

We are mindful of the Kumo shadow giving a slight negation to the bull triggers discussed.

APF Trading is a trading advisory firm offering clients advice on multi-asset trading strategies, signals, trading systems, execution services and trading platforms. The firm also conducts research and technical analysis with a focus on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and DeMark Indicators.