Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook and New and Renewable Energy 26 th Meeting of APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert Group Meeting 3-4 April 2006 Yonghun JUNG Vice President Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook and New and Renewable Energy
APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook and New and Renewable Energy. 26 th Meeting of APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert Group Meeting 3-4 April 2006 Yonghun JUNG Vice President Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre. Outline. Regional Grouping Key Factors in the APERC Outlook - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook and New and Renewable
Energy26th Meeting of APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert Group Meeting
3-4 April 2006
Yonghun JUNGVice President
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Outline Regional Grouping Key Factors in the APERC Outlook Drivers Final Energy Demand Primary Energy Demand Oil Import Dependency Electricity Generation Investment Requirements for the Energy
Sector Environment Implications
Regional Grouping
Russia
JapanKorea
Chinese Taipei
Philippines
USA
Mexico
Canada
Chile
Peru
New Zealand
Australia
China
IndonesiaMalaysia
Singapore
Thailand
Viet Nam
Papua New Guinea
Brunei Darussalam
Hong Kong, China
North America
Oceania
Latin America
Northeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Key Factors in the APERC Outlook
Income growth and change in life style Urbanisation Pursuit for comfort and convenience
Growing number of electric appliances (Residential), escalating number of passenger vehicle (Transport), and surge in PC use (Commercial)
Industrialisation of the developing economies China’s robust growth for iron and steel, petrochemical, cement
industries and its repercussion to the global economy. Asian economies to develop automobile industries.
China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand Rising energy security concern Water availability and power demands Integration of regional energy markets into global market Technology development
Drivers for the APEC Energy Demand
Income Growth GDP per capita will grow at an
annual rate of 3.5 percent.
Urbanisation By 2030, share of urban
population will reach 68 percent of the total from 52 percent in 2003.
26 million people per year will move from rural to urban cities.
Industrialisation Industry value added will grow by
4.8 percent per year, while GDP will grow by 4.1 percent per year.
(Source) Blackwell (2005)
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
N.
Am
eri
ca
L.
Am
eri
ca
NE
Asia
SE
Asia
Ocean
ia
Ch
ina
Ru
ssia
OE
CD
Eu
rop
e
No
n-O
EC
D E
uro
pe
CIS
/FS
U
Mid
dle
East
Afr
ica
Oth
ers
Th
ou
san
d B
arr
els
per
Day
APEC
APEC economies accounted for 90
percent of the world’s increment of oil
demand (2000-2004).
Growth of Oil Demand (2000-2004)
Income Growth and Fast Pace of Motorisation (1980-2030)
1
10
100
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
Income (USD, 2001 Price)
Pas
sen
ger
Veh
icle
Ow
ner
ship
per
1,0
00P
op
ula
tio
n
AUS CHL CDA PRC INA ROK JPNMAS NZ MEX PE PNG SIN RPRUS USA THA CT
AUS USA
NZ CDAJPN
PRC
PE
ROK
CTMAS
SIN
CHLTHA
RPINA
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
Urbanisation and Residential Energy Demand in the Selected APEC Economies
Urban and Rural Residential Electricity Demand Per Person
Urbanisation
2003 2030 2003 2030
N. America 261 354 80% 87%
L. America 112 160 76% 84%
NEA Asia 146 159 71% 78%
SEA Asia 210 389 44% 63%
Oceania 22 29 76% 77%
China 504 878 39% 61%
Russia 105 94 73% 78%
APEC 1,360 2,063 52% 68%
Urban Population(Millions)
Share of UrbanPopulation
(Source) United Nations (2003), “Urban and Rural Areas” (Source) APERC Internal Database
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
China (2003) Philippines(1995)
Thailand (2003)
Resid
ential e
lectr
icity d
em
and
(kW
h p
er
pers
on)
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Share of Sectoral Value Added by Region (2002 and 2030)
North America
1 0.8
22.7 19.5
76.3 79.7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002 2030
Latin America
4.7 2.7
28.928.2
66.4 69.1
2002 2030
Northeast Asia
1.7 1
29.8 30.9
68.5 68.1
2002 2030
Southeast Asia
15.29.9
4043.6
48.8 53.5
2002 2030
Oceania
3.4 3.2
27.4 26.1
70 71.8
2002 2030
China
16.8
6.8
47.2
49.6
36.143.6
2002 2030
Russia
16.8
6.8
47.2
49.6
36.143.6
2002 2030
Service
Industry
Agriculture
Increasing Share of Services Sector across the Region
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
(Note 2) Residential demand includes demand for electricity, gas, oil products, heat and biomass.
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note 1) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
Commercial sector to grow at the fastest pace followed closely by industry and transportation sectors.
• without externalities, coal is the cheapest option and NRE (except solar) are competitive to natural gas.
Leveraged Costs of Electricity Generation (Japan)
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2005), “Renewable Electricity in the APEC Region”
NRE Share: Externality Case and BAU Case
• With the application of externality to the cost of generation, almost half of the APEC member economies would have significant changes in generation structure.
Individual sensitivities of APEC member economies to the application of externality
Implications Limited potential for fuel switching
Increasing use of coal and damaging impact on local and global environment
Need for NRE to offset likely environmental impact from BAU
Potential to increase NRE in electricity generation Time to reflect environmental cost on price
Call for realistic commitments for the expansion of NRE from the International initiatives
APEC bio fuel task force UNFCCC Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
New Project for 2006/2007 (provisional) Transportation energy: demand trend and new
supply options Urbanization Biofuel, NGV, Hybrid vehicles, and etc
APEC Energy Security in the 21st century: constraints and options
Resource constraints: conventional and NRE Input constraints: water, land(siting), public acceptance Human resources
International Energy Initiatives: fact and myth G8, APEC, UNFCCC, ASEAN, UNDP, OECD, AP6 and etc Origin, operation, impact and future