“Water- Agriculture- International Trade Nexus: Implications for Food Security in the context of Climate Change” Pr Mohamed AIT KADI President of the General Council of Agricultural Development, Rabat, Morocco Chair of the Global Water Partnership Technical Committee Montréal, Canada, October 20, 2010 Third McGill Conference on Global Food Security
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“Water- Agriculture- International Trade Nexus: Implications for Food Security in
the context of Climate Change”Pr Mohamed AIT KADI
President of the General Council of Agricultural Development, Rabat, MoroccoChair of the Global Water Partnership Technical Committee
Montréal, Canada, October 20, 2010
Third McGill Conferenceon Global Food Security
A Changing World
Cannot be solved by 1 country Problems are interconnected
Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC
Problems can’t be solved by countries acting in isolation
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
200
400
600
800
US
$/ba
rrel
US
$/to
n
CornWheatRiceOil (right scale)
Source: von Braun 2008 with data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008Source: von Braun 2008 with data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.
Diverse policy responses to food crisis
Trade Trade restrictionrestriction
Trade Trade liberaliz.liberaliz.
Consumer Consumer subsidysubsidy
Social Social protectionprotection
Increase Increase supplysupply
AsiaAsiaBangladeshBangladesh XX XX XX XXChinaChina XX XX XX XXIndiaIndia XX XX XX XX XXIndonesiaIndonesia XX XX XXMalaysiaMalaysia XX XX XXThailandThailand XX XX XX
Latin AmericaLatin AmericaArgentinaArgentina XX XX XX XXBrazilBrazil XX XX XXMexicoMexico XX XX XXPeruPeru XX XX XXVenezuela Venezuela XX XX XX XX
AfricaAfricaEgyptEgypt XX XX XX XXEthiopiaEthiopia XX XX XX XXGhanaGhana XX XXKenyaKenya XXNigeriaNigeria XX XX XXTanzaniaTanzania XX XX XX
Source: von Braun 2008 with data from IMF, FAO, and news reportsSource: von Braun 2008 with data from IMF, FAO, and news reports, 2007, 2007--08.08.
The problems are interconnectedThe problems are interconnected
Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC
Plan of this talkPlan of this talk
1. Understanding the {Water-Agriculture-Trade} Nexus “Morocco’s Example”
2. Climate Change: A Game Changer
3. What are the Implications for Food Security?
4. Conclusions
6
WATER-AGRICULTURE-TRADE NEXUS
WATER
AGRICULTURE TRADE
SS
FS
Rainfed
/ Irri
gatio
n
Blue
/Gre
en W
ater P
rodu
ctivit
y
Virtual Water
Ground Water Depletion
Commercial / Non commercial Agriculture“Super market revolution”Commodity prices volatility
IWR
MWTO, Regional
Bilateral TagAg. REFORMS
Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC
Demography/UrbanizationEconomic Social Institutions/GovernanceTechnologySolidarity
«Toute chose étant aidée et aidante, causée et causante, je tiens pour impossible de connaitre le tout sans connaitre les parties et de connaitre les parties sans connaitre le tout .. »
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Morocco’s Demographic Transition
05
101520253035404550
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Mill
ions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%
Population
Rural
Urban
Urbanity ratio
Morocco’s Economic Transition
Morocco’s GDP (BDH) Structure of the EconomyShare in GDP (%)
WATER-AGRICULTURE-TRADE NEXUS
WATER
AGRICULTURE TRADE
SS
FS
Rainfed
/ Irri
gatio
n
Blue
/Gre
en W
ater P
rodu
ctivit
y
Virtual Water
Ground Water Depletion
Commercial / Non commercial Agriculture“Super market revolution”Commodity prices volatility
IWR
MWTO, Regional
Bilateral TagAg. REFORMS
Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC
Sujets de discussion
• Présentez les principales idées que vous allez développer
Morocco is a highly water stressed country with erratic rainfall and frequent droughts.
The country is reaching the end of the water development era. Water resources management is therefore shifting to the more difficult task of ensuring economically, socially and environmentally efficient water allocation within the existing water resources constraints.
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Rewable Water Resources/ca/RB
1190
8531045
141
856
512418
1144
161
0200400600800
100012001400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
River Basins
Ren
ewab
le W
ater
R
esou
rces
m3/
ca
1
23
4
56
7
8
9
730 m3 /ca/year
Deficit/surplus
96
-219
1068
-35
-1468
-163 -126
11 -4
-2000-1500-1000
-5000
50010001500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
River Basins
Mm
3
Water resources endowment/distribution
Morroco’s Water Issues & Constraints
• Water demand is growing fast;
• Water availability is falling to crisis levels;
• Overexploitation of groundwater
• Shortages are compounded by pollution
• Low water use efficiency in irrigation;
• Etc.
WATER-AGRICULTURE-TRADE NEXUS
WATER
AGRICULTURE TRADE
SS
FS
Rainfed
/ Irri
gatio
n
Blue
/Gre
en W
ater P
rodu
ctivit
y
Virtual Water
Ground Water Depletion
Commercial / Non commercial Agriculture“Super market revolution”Commodity prices volatility
IWR
MWTO, Regional
Bilateral TagAg. REFORMS
Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC
LSI &SMSI in LSI &SMSI in MoroccoMorocco
OuarzazateOuarzazate
TafilaletTafilalet
MoulouyaMoulouyaLoukkosLoukkosGharbGharb
DoukkalaDoukkala
SoussSouss--MassaMassa
HaouzHaouz
TadlaTadla
Grands pGrands péérimrimèètres tres dd’’irrigationirrigation
Océan Atlantique
PPéérimrimèètres de Petite tres de Petite et Moyenne et Moyenne HydrauliqueHydraulique
Indices de la production des cultures et de l’élevage
Important Production Increases of Crop & Livestock
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
AG-GDP X 2
WATER-AGRICULTURE-TRADE NEXUS
WATER
AGRICULTURE TRADE
SS
FS
Rainfed
/ Irri
gatio
n
Blue
/Gre
en W
ater P
rodu
ctivit
y
Virtual Water
Ground Water Depletion
Commercial / Non commercial Agriculture“Super market revolution”Commodity prices volatility
IWR
MWTO, Regional
Bilateral TagAg. REFORMS
Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC
Evolution Export-Import Agricoles
0
5 000 000
10 000 000
15 000 000
20 000 000
25 000 000
30 000 000
35 000 000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Année
Mill
e D
hs
Import Agri ExportAgri
TRADE
Sujets de discussion• Présentez les principales idées que vous allez
développerWith its heavy dependence on imports of
wheat, maize, oilseeds and energy for domestic consumption Morocco has been severely hit by rising world food and oil prices. This has raised serious concerns about food security, macroeconomic and social stability
FOOD IMPORTS/TOTAL IMPORTS (%)
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
9
9,5
10
10,5
11
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
FOOD EXPORTS/FOOD IMPORTS
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
The agricultural trading system is not yet neither truly global nor truly free. Developing countries still have difficult access to markets of developed countries.
At present, developed countries provide trade distorting subsidies to their farmers and impose tariff barriers to developing countries exports that escalate with the value of the product.
We need a trading system that draws on the expertise of every nation and returns to every nation a more diverse and above all secure supply of food.
1. Understanding the {Water-Agriculture-Trade} Nexus “Morocco’s Example”
2. Climate Change: A Game Changer
3. What are the Implications for reforms
4. Conclusions
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Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs (compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)
Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099
Climate change impact on resources Climate change impact on resources endowment & variabilityendowment & variability
Loukkos+LaouSebouBouregregOum Er RbiaTensiftMoulouyaLinéaire (Oum Er Rbia)
Plan of this talkPlan of this talk
1. Understanding the {Water-Agriculture-Trade} Nexus “Morocco’s Example”
2. Climate Change: A Game Changer
3. What are the Implications for reforms
4. Conclusions
31
Key Questions
How much more irrigation does Morocco need to meet the future needs of a growing population?How to restructure consumption patterns from the present wasteful low value water intensive uses?How can farmers achieve a higher livelihood from every drop of water?What will the side effects on the rural community be by transferring water to cities? And what are the implications for food security?Does the import of food “virtual water” support food security and a more equitable and efficient allocation of water?
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2 Reform strategy built around 2 Pillars « The Green Morocco »
L'agriculture comme moteur majeur de développement économique et social
Refonte du cadre sectoriel et amélioration des facteurs transversaux
Pilier II
Mise à niveau solidaire:
Investissement social et lutte contre la pauvreté agricole
Pilier I
Développement d’une agriculture moderne:
Investissement industriel à haute productivité/ valeur ajoutée
Foncier Eau ALE Marchénational
Doing business
Interprofessionnelles
Refocalisation Ministère
« GREEN MOROCCO »
Water Sector Reforms (1995/2009)
• The adoption of a long term strategy for an integrated water resources management;
• The development of a new legal and institutional framework to promote decentralized management and increase stakeholder participation;
• Introducing economic incentives in water allocation decisions through rational tariff and cost recovery;
• Taking capacity enhancing measures to meet institutional challenges for the management of water resources; and
• Establishing effective monitoring and control of water quality to reduce environmental degradation