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19 Deember 2007 Workshop at TRIPP-IIT Delhi 1
“Transport, Health, Environment &
Equity in Indian cities”
Workshop Organized By
McGill University and TRIPP-IIT Delhi
On17 – 19 December 2007
“Is anyone listening out there?”By
Sudhir BadamiTransport & Urban Analyst and Activist
[email protected]
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19 Deember 2007 Workshop at TRIPP-IIT Delhi 2
I would like to put before you the case of
Mumbai’s
1. 146.5 km of Mumbai Metro Master Plan - which is being considered as the solution for Mumbai's inadequate Public Transport capacity.
2. Scuttling of Sky Bus Technology
3. Low priority to BRTS in Mumbai
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Greater Mumbai
and
Urban Agglomerate
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Mumbai Metropolitan Region
MMR • Population 2001 Census
• Mira-Bhayandar 5 lac
• Bhiwandi-Nizampur 6 lac
� Thane 13 lac
� Kalyan-Dombivili 13 lac
� Ulhasnagar 5 lac
� Navi Mumbai 7 lac
� Greater Mumbai 119 lac
7 M’Corpns, 13 M’Councils and ~900
villages exist in the MMR
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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~1870 ~1900 1950 1957
Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai
Over the years
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Western Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
Island City24 Municipal
Wards of MCGM
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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408309234 (31%)205.51771273MMR Urban
426325248 (31%)218.5189 (28%)
4355MMR
230181143 (27%)131119 (20%)
468MCGM
775945 (25%)40.536 (22%)168Eastern Suburbs
1158664 (28%)5750 (28%)226Western Suburbs
383634(3%)33.533(3%)72Island City
2031
Lacs
2021
Lacs
2011
Lacs
2006
Lacs
2001
Lacs
Area
Sq km
Population Projections (10 Lacs = 1 Million)
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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3202431841611391273MMR Urban
98755750434355MMR
492387306280254468MCGM
458351268241214168Eastern Suburbs
509381283252221226Western Suburbs
52850047246545872Island City
2031
P/Ha
2021
P/Ha
2011
P/Ha
2006
P/Ha
2001
P/Ha
Area
Sq km
Population Density Projections
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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18 %7.5 Lac42 LacChennai
20 %20 Lac98 LacDelhi
32 %15 Lac46 LacKolkatta
33 %4.2 Lac13 LacThane
36 %7.5 Lac21 LacNagpur
44 %4.7 Lac11 LacMeerat
46 %5 Lac11 LacFaridabad
50 %60 Lac119 LacGreater Mumbai
Slum%
SlumPopulation
PopulationCity
Slum Population Figures
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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18 %6 Lac35 LacHyderabad
8 %3.5 Lac45 LacBangalore
33 %4.2 Lac13 LacThane
36 %7.5 Lac21 LacNagpur
44 %4.7 Lac11 LacMeerat
46 %5 Lac11 LacFaridabad
50 %60 Lac119 LacGreater Mumbai
Slum%
SlumPopulation
PopulationCity
Slum Population Figures (Cont’d)
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
The Suburban Railway System
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The B.E.S.T. Bus Transport
334 Routes
Fleet size 3404
Route No 521
Route No 93
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10 %7 %Private Vehicle Users
5 %5 %Intermediate Public Transport (IPT)
Users
85 %88 %Public Transport (PT) Users
20071994
Atkin’s Report
Commuter Proportions
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Commuter Proportions
Commuter journeys are made using Buses. 75% of these bus journeys are related to
suburban rail journeys45 lac
Commuters use Suburban Railway daily60 – 65 lac
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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What are the ground realities?
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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This is peak hour load of
3,50,000 pph
500 to 550 p/coach
(Design load is Only 200p/coach)
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Peak hour crowd
waiting for the next
train
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Peak hour crowd trying to board a crowded
train.
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Mumbai Rail Commuters
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Inadequate ladies
compartments add to their
woes
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Any room for the Senior Citizens, Pregnant
Women, Children and the Physically Challenged?
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Peak hour traffic on
arterial roads do move, but congestion is
increasing rapidly
(Off Peak Hour Peddar Road)
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Traffic congestion affects bus through put, compelling
many commuters to opt for personal vehicles.
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
(Peak Hour Peddar Road)
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Between 1951 and 2004 there has been a
127 % increase in the length of city roads.
But population grew by 301 % over that
period while number of vehicles shot up by
3019 %, touching 20 million in 2007.
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Whither Pedestrian?
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Whither Pedestrian Safety?
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Too Smooth ?
Too Narrow ?
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Obstacles ?
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Surely there are better footpaths to walk on in Mumbai
But are these where the crowds move?
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Mantra to be followed:
Make Walking safe and comfortable.
Augment Public Transport Capacity significantly.
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Quick Overview of Mumbai’s Proposed Transportation Projects
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals
• Mumbai Urban Transport Project (MUTP) • Expected Completion – 2007 (2009) Cost Rs 4600 Cr (WB Component ~ Rs 2600 Cr)
• Mumbai Urban Infrastructure Project (MUIP) • Expected Completion – 2007 (2009) Cost Rs 2600 Cr
• Bandra Worli Sea Link (BWSL)• Expected Completion – 2008 (2009) Cost 1300 Cr
• Western Freeway Sea Link (WFSL)• Expected Completion – 5 Years Cost 3000 Cr
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
• Mumbai Trans Harbour Link (MTHL)• Expected Completion – 5 Years Cost 6500 Cr
• Mumbai Metro Master Plan (MMMP) • Expected Completion – 16 Years in phases Cost Realistic Rs 60,000 Cr plus for 146.5 km
• Water Transport Project (WTP)• Expected Completion – 3 Years Cost 600 Cr
• Exclusive Bus Lanes Project (XBLP) • Expected Completion – 2 Years Cost 80 Cr
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
• Monorail Projects• Expected Completion – 2 Years Cost 6000 Cr for 45 km
• Pedestrian Walkways
• At 21 locations at suburban railway stations
• Fleet Taxi Scheme• Meets the need of comfortable onward journeys for the affluent category
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
• Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS) • Pilot route under study
• Sky Bus Metro• Shelved ? Discarded ?
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Mumbai Metro Master Plan (MMMP)
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
MMMP
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
In Delhi
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
MMMP
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
In Delhi
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Current Proposals
(cont’d)
MMMPPhase I
1. Versova-Andheri-Ghatkopar 15 km
2. Colaba (Backbay)-Mahim-Charkop 36 km
3. Mahim-Mankhurd 12.8 km
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals
(cont’d)
MMMPPhase II
4. Charkop-Dahisar 7.5 km
5. Ghatkopar-Mulund 12.4 km
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals
(cont’d)
MMMPPhase III
6. BKC-Kanjur via Airport 19.5 km
7. Andheri (E) – Dahisar (E) 18 km
8. Hutatma Chowk-Ghatkopar 21.8 km
9. Sewri-Prabhadevi 3.5 km
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
MMMP
Phase I 12.0 u/g 51.8 Elevated 2005-’11
Phase II 0 u/g 19.9 Elevated 2011-’16
Phase III 20.5 u/g 32.3 Elevated 2016-’21
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TOTAL 32.5 u/g 114 Elevated 2005-’21
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Overall MMMP Map
Overview of Mumbai’s
Proposed Transportation Projects
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
MMMP (Revised in May 2006)
Phase I 20.0 u/g 43.8 Elevated 2005-’11
Phase II 0 u/g 19.9 Elevated 2011-’16
Phase III 20.5 u/g 32.3 Elevated 2016-’21
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TOTAL 40.5 u/g 106 Elevated 2005-’21
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Monorail Projects
Overview of Mumbai’s
Proposed Transportation Projects
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Monorail Projects
Proposed on
• Thane – Kalyan - Bhiwandi
• Lokhandwalla – Kanjur Marg
• Chembur - Mankhurd -Mahul
• Malabar Hill – Wadala - BKC
Overview of Mumbai’s
Proposed Transportation Projects
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Monorail Projects
• Thane – Kalyan - Bhiwandi
• Lokhandwalla – Kanjur Marg
• Chembur - Mankhurd - Mahul
• Malabar Hill – Wadala - BKC
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Pedestrian Walkways
Overview of Mumbai’s
Proposed Transportation Projects
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Pedestrian Walkways
Proposed at
• Twenty locations to facilitate easy dispersion of
suburban rail commuters.
Overview of Mumbai’s
Proposed Transportation Projects
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Current Proposals (cont’d)
Pedestrian Walkways
At about 20 Suburban Railway
Stations
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Fleet Taxi Scheme
Overview of Mumbai’s
Proposed Transportation Projects
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS)
Overview of Mumbai’s
Proposed Transportation Projects
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS)
Proposed a pilot route on
• Western Express Highway
Overview of Mumbai’s
Proposed Transportation Projects
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Bus Rapid Transit System
(BRTS)
Western Express Highway
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Sky Bus Metro
Overview of Mumbai’s
Proposed Transportation Projects
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Sky Bus Metro
Currently not under consideration.
Hopefully its importance is realised before it is too
late.
Overview of Mumbai’s
Proposed Transportation Projects
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Current Proposals (cont’d)
Mumbai Metropolitan Region Projects
Overview of Mumbai’s
Proposed Transportation Projects
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Current Proposals (cont’d)
Mumbai Metropolitan Region Rail Projects
•
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~ Rs 80,000 Cr with
WTP & XBLPTotal
Rs 19,525 Cr
(Rs 60,000 Cr realistic)16 years ( 2024 ?)MMMP
Rs 6500 Cr5 yearsMTHL
Rs 3000 Cr5 years (after clearance)WFSL
Rs 1300 Cr2008 (2009)BWSL
Rs 2600 Cr2007 (2009)MUIP
Rs 4600 Cr2007 (2009)MUTP
Estimated CostExpected CompletionProject
Transportation Projects
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Rs 5000 Cr5 years (after technology acceptance)
Sky Bus Metro (80 km)
Rs 2000 Cr2 years (after 1st Pilot in
operation)BRTS (200 km)
Operation commenced 2007
Fleet Taxi Scheme
2009Pedestrian Walkways
Rs 6000 Cr2010Monorail
Estimated CostExpected CompletionProject
Transportation Projects
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Capacity Computations – MUTP/MUIP
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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25%(MUTP Phase I
Estimate)
Expected reduction in congestion in
coaches =
Say: 3,50,00075 x (4500 to 5000)
i.e. 3,37,500 to 3,75,000 pph
Current load (before full
implementation of MUTP) =
4500 to 5000Current load of
persons per 9 coach train =
75Numbar of train
services per hour =
Capacity Computation – MUTP/MUIP
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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200(220aspiration figure of Mckinsie
Report
110 seated and 90 standees
Design capacity of each coach
3894,667/12 = 389
Number of persons per coach after
increasing coaches to 12 per rake =
519 4,667 / 9 = 519 Number of persons
per coach in a 9 coach train =
4,6673,50,000 / 75 = 4,667
Number of persons per train =
Capacity Computation – MUTP/MUIP
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Capacity Computation – MUTP/MUIP
69% of its capacity
(337-200) / 200 =With MUTP Phase II, each coach will be overloadedby
337(100-35) x 519 / 100 = 337
Number of persons per coach after 35% reduction in coach congestion (MUTP
Phase II) =
95% of its capacity
(389-200) / 200 = With only 12 Coach per train, coach will be overloadedby
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Capacity Computation – MUTP/MUIP
69% Overloaded337MUTP Phase II Coach Loading
95% Overloaded389MUTP Phase I Coach Loading
150% to 175% Overloaded
500 to 550(Design Load 200)
Present Coach Loading
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Capacity Computation – MUTP/MUIP
1,80,000 pph75 x 12 x 200 i.e.
1,80,000 pph
Design Capacity after full
implementation of MUTP Phase I) =
3,50,000 pphCurrent load (before full
implementation of MUTP) =
75Numbar of train
services per hour =
© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
The magic figure to remember which will enable this to happen is:
3,50,000 – 1,80,000 =
1,70,000 pph
additional capacity of Public Transport
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
What Next ?
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“Transport, Heath, Environment &
Equity in Indian cities”(5 min for this slide and then 15 min for Section 1)
Workshop Organized By
McGill University and TRIPP-IIT Delhi
On17 – 19 December 2007
XXXXXXXXXBy
Sudhir BadamiTransport & Urban Analyst ad Activist
[email protected]
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
On to Animations
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What is Skybus?
Let us understand
from
Animation Clippings
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Transmillenio, Bogota
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
The BRTS-Skybus Combine
Manual from here
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Capacity Computations
of
BRTS-Skybus Combine
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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45,000 pph180 x 250 = 45,000 pph
Hourly capacity of single route
18060 x 60 / 20 = 180Hourly services
20 secs3 every minuteFrequency of
buses
250BRTS Bus Capacity
Capacity Computations – BRTS
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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10,000 pphSurplus capacity
achieved by BRTS
1,70,000 pphRequired additional capacity
1,80,000 pph4 x 45,000 = 1,80,000 pph
Capacity of Four North South
Routes
Capacity Computations – BRTS
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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6060 / 1 = 60Hourly service at
operational headway
1 minOperational Headway
27 secs / 32 secsFor a pair / for 3 pairs of coaches
Design Headway
300Pair of coachesSkybus Coach
Capacity
Capacity Computations – Skybus
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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1,08,000 pph2 x 54,000Capacity of Two
North South Routes
54,000 pph900 x 60 = 54,000
pph
6 Coach Capacity at hourly
operational service
9003 x 300 = 9006 Coach Capacity
Capacity Computations – Skybus
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Total capacity of BRTS-Skybus
Combine
Capacity of four North South
Routes of BRTS
Capacity of Two North South
Routes of Skybus
1,18,000 pphSurplus achieved by BRTS-Skybus
Combine
1,70,000 pphRequired additional capacity
2,88,000 pph1,80,000 pph1,08,000 pph
Capacity Computations – BRTS-Skybus Combine
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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33.71 %Surplus as % of load
3,50,000 pphOverall load
1,18,000 pphSurplus achieved by BRTS-Skybus
Combine
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Capacity Computations – BRTS-Skybus Combine
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This would mean that whether it is Suburban Railways or BRTS or Skybus, the peak load will be about 34% less than the design capacity – a very comfortable state for commuters.
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Cost Computations of BRTS-Skybus-
Combine
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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Rs 4,800 Cr@ Rs 60 Cr/km
80 km2 North-South
Routes of Skybus
Rs 2,000 Cr@ Rs10 Cr/km
200 km4 North-South and 3 East-West Routes
of BRTS
TOTAL COST ~ Rs 7,000 Cr
For a surplus capacity of 1,18,000 pph
Cost Computations of BRTS-Skybus Combine
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
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The Metro Magic
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© Sudhir Badami s u d h I r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m
Although Mumbai Metro Master Plan is an attempt to augment the capacity of Public Transport, it
1. Will take 16 to 20 years
2. Cost about TEN times of what the BRTS-Skybus will cost
And
3. Provide 28% less capacity than what is needed.
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Cost Computations of MMMP
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10,5742105,4844,480Cost
Rs Cr
15520120400Rate
Rs Cr/km
68.410.545.712.2Length
km
TotalOn gradeElevatedUnderground
Table A - Delhi Metro Phase I
(at actual – alt I rates)
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10,5752104,5705,795Cost
Rs Cr
15520100475Rate
Rs Cr/km
68.410.545.712.2Length
km
TotalOn gradeElevatedUnderground
Table B - Delhi Metro Phase I
(at actual – alt II rates)
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19,525011,4008,125Cost
Rs Cr
133.30100250Rate
Rs Cr/km
146.5011432.5Length
km
TotalOn gradeElevatedUnderground
Table C - Mumbai Metro
(with rates placed at Public Consultation by MMRDA/DMRC in Feb 2004)
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26,828011,40015,438Cost
Rs Cr
18220100475Rate
Rs Cr/km
146.5011432.5Length
km
TotalOn gradeElevatedUnderground
Table D - Mumbai Metro
(with same rates as for Delhi Metro – from Table B)
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61,177021,73039,447Cost
Rs Cr
417.520205974
extrapolatedRate
Rs Cr/km
146.5010640.5Length
km
TotalOn gradeElevatedUnderground
Table E - Mumbai Metro
(with bid rates for Versova-Ghatkopar Stretch as accepted by MMRDA-Govt of Maharashtra in May 2006)
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How Metro is projected as a “Save all” Project
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A simple oft repeated statement that Metro has the capacity that other modes do not have seems to be the selling point.
Numbers tell us a different story.
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Metro As a savior !
2060 / 3 = 20Hourly service at
operationalheadway
3 minsOperational Headway
300Metro Coach
Capacity
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Metro As a savior !
1,44,000 pph2 x 72,000Capacity of Two
North South Routes
72,000 pph3600 x 20 =
72,000
12 Coach Capacity at hourly
operational service
360012 x 300 = 360012 Coach Capacity
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Metro As a savior !
1,70,000 pphThe magic figureRequired additional capacity
26,000 pph1,70,000 –1,44,000 = 26,000
The deficit comes to:
1,44,000 pph2 x 72,000
For 12 coach train
Capacity of Two North South
Routes
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Capacity Computations – of Proposed Mumbai
Metro
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2060 / 3 = 20Hourly service at
operational
3 minsOperational Headway
300Metro Coach
Capacity
Capacity Computations – Mumbai Metro
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72,000 pph2 x 36,000Capacity of Two
North South Routes
36,000 pph1800 x 20 = 36,000 pph
6 Coach Capacity at hourly
operational service
18006 x 300 = 18006 Coach Capacity
Capacity Computations – Mumbai Metro
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Capacity Computations – Mumbai Metro
1,70,000 pphThe magic figureRequired additional capacity
98,000 pph1,70,000 – 72,000 = 98,000
The deficit comes to:
72,000 pph2 x 36,000
For 6 coach train
Capacity of Two North South
Routes
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Other projects mentioned have little impact on transportation scenario with Mumbai. However, the MTHL, will throw the Mumbai Metropolitan Region open for rapid development.
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At Rs 60 Cr/km, Sky Bus may become unviable to most cities in India, but may not be so for the metro cities.
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As usual, Metro Rail is being touted as “the” solution to Urban Transport and we know the reality.
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BRTS is being considered only to get funding from JNNURM, but I see hope with some seriousness being shown lately by Government.
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“Material being shown here are from sources listed below.
Sincere thanks to them for making them available for these
presentations:
• Mumbai Metropolitan Development Authority• Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai• Census• Western and Central Railways• B.E.S.T.• Konkan Railway• Rishi Aggarwal• Delhi Metro Rail Corporation• News papers: Indian Express, Times of India, Hindustan Times, DNA• Mumbai Traffic Police• Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation• Economic & Political Weekly
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Thank You
© Sudhir Badami s u d h i r b a d a m i @ g m a i l . c o m