Slide 1. “Extreme Longevity: Secrets on the Oldest Old” by L. Stephen Coles, M.D., Ph.D., Director Supercentenarian Research Foundation UCLA Molecular Biology Institute 817 Levering Avenue, Suite 8 Los Angeles, CA 90024-2767; USA E-mails: [email protected]; [email protected]; URLs: www.grg.org ; www.supercentenarian-research-foundation.org ; Wednesday, June 8, 2011; [2:00 – 2:30] PM CDT OECD Conference Melia Reforma Hotel; Mexico City, DF; MEXICO Supercentenarians June 8, 2011
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“Extreme Longevity: Secrets on the Oldest Old” · • In 1998, there were 10,000 centenarians; oldest person = 114 yo • In 2009, there were 40,000 centenarians; oldest person
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Slide 1.
“Extreme Longevity:
Secrets on the Oldest Old” by
L. Stephen Coles, M.D., Ph.D., Director
Supercentenarian Research Foundation
UCLA Molecular Biology Institute 817 Levering Avenue, Suite 8
Extra Cellular Matrix (ECM); Trophic Factors; Cytokines
• Lipofusin Accumulation and other undigestable garbage
Slide 4. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
Metaphor with Aging:
Alchemy Chemistry
(Periodic Table of the Elements)
Goal: Transmutation of Base Metals into Gold or Silver Science
Slide 5. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
Age-1 in C. elegans
True Longevity Right Shift
Not just Rectangularization
Heterochronic Parabiosis --
Young and Old Mouse with
a common blood supply
Old Mouse Young/
Young Mouse Old
Grandparenting Effect
Queen Bee/Queen Ant
Bowhead Whale
Slide 6. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
World Population 200 KYA --> Today (7.89 B Humans in 2025; 9.85 B in 2050)
The total number of humans that have ever lived has been estimated at 110 Billion.
Approximately six percent of all those people are still alive today (6.88 B).
Slide 7. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
World Life Expectancy Throughout History
Slide 8. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
Rectangularization of US Longevity over One Century [1900 – 1950 – 2004] Data from CDC NVSS Report (2007)
Average Life Expectancy in [1900-1902] = 49.24 years or 47.3 years for 1900 alone; in 2004 = ~78 years
Slide 9. Supercentenarians
Demographics of Centenarians
June 8, 2011
Slide 10.
Supercentenarians
June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
Slide 11.
Who is a Supercentenarian?
• As of today (Thursday, May 19th), there are 88 Validated Living Supercentenarians World Wide
(USA : nonUS = 21 : 67) (Female : Male = 83 : 5)!
• Once you were to make it to becoming a Supercentenarian, the chances of living even one more year is like flipping a coin (H:T or 50 percent mortality rate)!
• Therefore, these individuals are a very precious resource for humanity, and we need to act quickly; otherwise, whatever they have to teach us about how they managed to live so long will be lost forever
June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
Slide 12.
The Oldest Documented
Supercentenarian in History
40 yo 120 yo
According to the Guinness Book of World Records, the oldest documented
Supercentenarian in history was French woman Madame Jeanne-Louise
Calment, who died in 1997 at 122 years, 164 days
June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
Slide 13. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
While Prof. James Fries‟s “Compression of Morbidity" hypothesis may not be
entirely correct, there is a definite “Rectangularization” of the human longevity
curve, and it is becoming stronger with the passage of time
If we take Japanese centenarians as one example…
• In 1992, there were 3,000 centenarians; oldest person = 114 yo
• In 1998, there were 10,000 centenarians; oldest person = 114 yo
• In 2009, there were 40,000 centenarians; oldest person = 114 yo
Rather than seeing an increase in the maximum ages, as expected,
we are seeing an increase in the mortality rates instead, especially
at ages 112, 113, 114, and 115, with very few persons anywhere
reaching age 116 (last occurrence was 2006) and age 117 or more
turns out to be an extreme outlier (last occurrence was in 1997)
Rectangularization of Longevity
Slide 14. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
Mortality and P(Survival) by Don Gennnery, Biostatistician at JPL (Jan. 19, 2010)
Slide 15. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
“It ain‟t over „til it‟s over.” – Yogi Berra
Jack LaLane (L), died at 96 yo; David Murdock (R), 87 yo
California billionaire plans his birthday party at 125 yo.
$500 million was spent on a state-of-the-art science center
dedicated to the hypothesis that food plants hold the key to
a longevity.
Slide 16. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
Country Age
France 122 (While Jeanne Calment reached age 122, she definitely was not walking around
at age 120.)
UK 115 (The oldest British person since modern birth registration began in 1837.)
Spain 114
Italy 114
Sweden 113
Oldest by Country
Slide 17. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
1. Christopher Driver, “Opinion: A Further Comment on Why the Gompertz Plot
Does Not Measure Aging” Biogerontology, Vol. 4, pp. 325-7 (2003).
2. James R. Carey, et al., “Slowing of Mortality Rates at Older Ages in Large
Medfly Cohorts,” Science Vol. 258, No. 5081, pp. 457-61 (1992).
Mortality Plateau for Fruit Flies
Slide 18. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
Human Mortality [85 -125] yo by Don Gennnery, Biostatistician at JPL (Jan. 19, 2010)
Slide 19. June 8, 2011 Supercentenarians
Supercentenarian Mortality Rates 2007 and 2010 [*]