Antigua Monday, December 7, 2009 Antigua Monday, December 7, 2009
Dec 31, 2015
AntiguaMonday, December 7, 2009
AntiguaMonday, December 7,
2009
Main objectives of the study
Assess social impacts of the Global Economic CrisisReview policy responsesRecommend a roadmap for improving social
resilience among Caribbean SIDS
Introduce PSIA to the region as a policy tool.
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Methodology
Review of reports and statistical indicators (completed)
Key informant interviews with government, civil society, private sector actors (completed)
Focus group discussions (FGD) with vulnerable and affected groups (completed)
Cross-country comparison analysis (in process)
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Methodology
FGDs Jointly conducted with Ministry (social transformation)
counterparts Affected groups
Laid off employees (hospitality sector) Construction workers Entrepreneurs
Vulnerable groups Poor men and women (urban/rural) Elderly Youth Disabled
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Key questions
Given inherent vulnerability and openness to external shocks, it is entirely expected that Caribbean countries would be affected.
However: Why are some countries more vulnerable than
others? Why are some countries more resilient than others?
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Context: Socio-economic indicators
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Country GDP per capita (PPP US$ 2007) 1
Life expectancy1
Infant mortality2
Adult literacy1
(%)
Population3 HDI rank
Barbados 17,956 77.0 12 99.7 274,700 37
Antigua and Barbuda
18,691 74.8 11 99.0 87,506 47
Saint Kitts and Nevis
14,481 72.2 18 97.8 51,967 62
Saint Lucia 9,786 73.6 18 94.8 172,034 69
Dominica 7,893 77 18 88.0 71,612 73
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
7,691 71.4 19 88.1 100,510 91
Montserrat 3,400 72.8 97 4,875 n/a
Context: Poverty rates
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Country Poverty rate (%)
Antigua and Barbuda 18.3
Dominica 39.0
Montserrat NA
St. Kitts and Nevis 21.8
St. Lucia 28.8
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
30.2
Year
2005/06
2003
2008
2007/08
2005
2007/08
Context: Unemployment
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Country Unemployment Rate (%) Year
Antigua and Barbuda 4% 2006
Barbados 9.9% 2009
Dominica* 11% 2007
Montserrat* 13.0% 2009
St. Kitts and Nevis 5.1% 2008
St. Lucia 17% 2005
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 18.8% 2008
Source: Country CPAs, *Country data
Context: Recent developments
The global economic crisis has occurred in the context of other events of social/economic significance:
Food and fuel price increase (global) Collapse of the banana sector (Windwards) Natural disasters – hurricanes (region), volcanic
eruptions (Montserrat) Increase in social problems among youth – (region-
wide)Regional airfare increases
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Main findings: Transmission channels
Primary transmission channelsUnemploymentReduced incomeHigher prices
Secondary transmission channelsReduced consumptionHealth and disabilityRising debt and delinquencies
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Potential stages of transmission
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Main findings: tourism decline
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Destination 2007 2008 2009 (YTD)
Anguilla 6.4 -12.1 -21.4
Antigua & Barbuda 3.2 1.5 -12.9
Barbados 1.8 -0.9 -8.5
Dominica -8.8 2.6 -3.5
Grenada 9.0 -4.1 -4.6
Guyana 9.0 1.0 2.7
Jamaica 1.3 3.9 3.4
Montserrat -2.7 -5.0 -15.3
St. Kitts and Nevis -7.4 -13.6 -
Saint Lucia -5.0 2.9 -9.4
St. Vincent & the Grenadines -8.0 -6.2 -8.1
Stop-over arrivals – percentage change (y.o.y)
Main findings: negative impacts
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Impact: Employment Examples of groups most commonly associated with
Taking on work atypical for gender (e.g. women engaging in construction work)
Women
Anxiety of not finding work due to age Older unemployed
Payment delays Employees,
Partial payment Employees
Employers taking advantage of employees - working them harder
Employees
Employers taking advantage of employees – pressure for sexual favors
Employees - female
More difficult finding work commensurate to qualifications
Skilled/educated workers
Accepting lower status/skilled profession to remain employed
Job seekers
Main findings: negative impacts
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Impact Examples of groups most commonly associated with
Education
Forgoing education in order to work, or because too expensive
Youth
Not buying school books Children
More difficulty in getting loans Youth
Health and diet
Inability to buy food or need to substitute for less nutritious options
Fewer visits to doctor
More difficult to obtain equipment needed since the priority now is on obtaining basic needs
Disabled
Main findings: negative impacts
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Impact: Financial/budgeting issues Examples of groups most commonly associated with
Needing extensions to credit Entrepreneurs
Banks threatening to seize property Home owners
Delinquencies on loans
Decrease in savings
Arrears on utility/telephone bills Homeowners/renters
Bills not getting paid
Drop in child support allowance Mothers
Inability to pay mortgage Homeowners
Main findings: negative impacts
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Impact: Business Examples of groups most commonly associated with
Lower sales Entrepreneurs
Increased competition Entrepreneurs
Taking losses Entrepreneurs
Minimizing wholesale purchases Entrepreneurs
Main findings: negative impacts
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Impact: Consumption Examples of groups most commonly associated with
Reduced allowance for school, etc.
Reduction in remittances and barrels Children/youth
Cost of living has increased
Overall spending down
Less spending on entertainment
Inability to pay utility bills on time
Main findings: negative impacts
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Impact: Psychological/emotional/spiritual Examples of groups most commonly associated with
Increased levels of stress
Feelings of inadequacy Men
Feelings of embarrassment Men
Rising domestic violence Families
Family breakdown Families
Depression Adults
Parents expressing anger at children Parents/children
Less socializing with friends Youth
Hyperactive behaviour Children
Main findings: positive impacts
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Impacts Examples of groups most commonly associated with
Psychological/emotional/spiritual
Helping others/neighbors
Spending more time with children (if unemployed)
Bringing people together
Praying more
Consumption/expenditures
Self-sufficiency through backyard/kitchen gardening
Conserving energy
Less meat in the diet?
Main findings: Coping strategies
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Strategy Examples of groups most commonly associated with
Employment
Migration in search of work Youth
Relocation overseas in order to have access to better healthcare
Starting own business Former employees
Turning to agriculture as an income source
Housing
Moving back in with parents Young persons
Renting smaller homes Families
Main findings: Coping strategies
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Strategy Examples of groups most commonly associated with
Health and diet
Switching to less expensive food
Fewer meals
Illegal activity
Transactional sex Women
Engaging in prostitution Women
Financial/budgeting issues
More careful budgeting/rearranging priorities Families
Doing without or with fewer discretionary purchases/leisure activities
Non-poor
Fewer clothing purchases
Main findings: Increased dependence on the state
Households that once supported elderly parents, both at home and abroad turning to Governments for assistance because they have been laid off or are afflicted by other effects of the crisis.
Care facilities and Government programs suffering from an increase in applicants for assistance at a time, when in some cases, they are introducing austerity measures.
Community and Social Development departments have recorded an increase in number of persons coming in asking for assistance in the form of food baskets, rent assistance and monetary support.
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Main findings: Country response Many Governments have responded with both economic and
social policy measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis
However, new social measures have been fairly minimal in scope. There are various possible reasons for this:1. Impact of the crisis has been relatively mild (Montserrat,
Dominica), reducing perceived need to expand or introduce programs
2. Existing social protection measures were considered adequate to forestall the worst effects of the crisis (Barbados)
3. Preference for economic policy measures over social measures (St. Kitts)
4. Inadequate resources (Antigua, St. Kitts)
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Vulnerability and resilience
Definitions
Vulnerability – Exposure of to exogenous shocks arising out of openness
Resilience – Policy-induced ability to withstand or recover from effects of a shock
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Vulnerability and resilience
The study has confirmed that a country’s and a population’s vulnerability to the crisis is related to the degree of its exposure to the global economy
Social resilience is related to a country’s ability to recover from a shock, through a stronger social protection system, greater food security,
The countries in the region can be classified according to both dimensions. The following matrix is based on the findings from the current study.
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Policy responses
INSTRUCTIONS: Based on the conceptualization above, place countries within the matrix. On a separate sheet, provide a justification for the placement
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More resilient Less resilient
Less vulnerable
More vulnerable