Anticipating and matching demand and supply of skills in ETF partner countries Lizzi Feiler, labour market specialist European Training Foundation.

Anticipating and matching demand and supply of skills in ETF partner countries

Lizzi Feiler, labour market specialistEuropean Training Foundation

Content• The knowledge continuum:

forecasting is not enough

• The challenges

• ETF innovation and learning project 2011-2013: anticipation and matching in transition and developing countries - Project outcome 2012- Key findings from stock taking- Planned activities 2013

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The knowledge continuum: a coherent approach to anticipation and

matching

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3 basic functions of anticipation and matching:

Knowledge creation, based on evidence: analysis of present and past data, future trends

Knowledge mediation:

dissemination to reach the actors

Knowledge application:

implementation of anticipation and

matching policies

The challenges

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• Labour market shocks led to high youth unemployment • Weak labour market information systems• Transition economies experience rapid change of skills demands

because of shifts from agriculture and manufacturing to services, privatisation and foreign direct investment

• The future is uncertain…. there are also external factors• Dominance of micro and small enterprises and a large informal

economy create additional challenges

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…since it is a „mission impossible“ to achieve quick fixes of current skills mismatches with education reforms, anticipation of future skills needs is requested

The challenges

Project outcome 2012

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10 country reports

Synthesis reports

Stocktaking of current practices:

Specific conditions in

transition economies and development

countries

How to measure mismatch:

a comparison of methods and

interpetations

Exploring current and future demands – what countries do (examples)

Time horizon Levels

short-term(0-1 year)

Mid-term(1-5 years)

Micro-level(people, enterprises)

• HR: online survey of SMEs • HR: transition survey of youth (1x)• EGY: tracer study; • EGY: Analysis of vacancies (monthly)• MOL: PES transition survey; • UA: ETF transition study;

Meso-level(sectors, regions,)

• ME: PES and employers’ federation: employer surveys• EGY: PROSPECT method at local level• MOL, ME, HR PES employer surveys• TR: Skill’10 project combines needs analysis, training and matching. (90% job placement expected) •UA: VET on demand of employers (90% job placement expected)

• HR: PES employer surveys • HR: Sector analysis (14 sectors) • EGY: sectoral employer surveys• UA: sector skills studies: ICT sector (ETF), coal mining (TACIS)

Macro-level(national, systems level)

• EGY: 4-yr forecast of the national observatory• HR: CES analysis and forecast of LM needs• KG: enterprise survey with trend extrapolation and multi-stakeholder surveys • MOL: Survey of public and private employers2011-2016• UA: Employer surveys (PES, WB)

HR – Croatia, TR – Turkey, UA – Ukraine, KG - Kyrgyzstan

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Conclusions and key findings from stock taking

• A robust database for the labour market and the E&T system is a key pre-condition for valid anticipation and effective matching

• A mix of approaches and continuous methodological improvement (but at the same time continuity and consistency!) is needed

• Credibility: combination of informal knowledge and research findings. Publication of research is not enough to convince decision makers

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• Anticipation aims at shaping the future, hence needs to be imbedded in a macroeconomic vision and strategy

• Strong PES capacities are important for better matching

• Active role of employers in anticipation and matching (recruitment, work based learning, adaptation to change, …)

• Micro and small enterprises might need specific support

Conclusions and key findings from stock taking

Planned activities 2012/2013

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1. Skills Mismatch Analyses will build on the project work in 2011 and enable users to choose the right and most relevant methodology 2. Macro Level Anticipationwill test and adopt the Cedefop methodology on skills forecast in 1-2 ETF pilot countries, taking into account the availability of data and resources 3. Anticipation and Matching of Skills at Sector Level will cover qualitative and quantitative sector based aspects of skills demands analyses 4. Transition Studies will look into methodologies and objectives of transition and tracer studies, to track and follow individuals on the labour market

Elaborating a compendium of guides:

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5. Supply Analyses will cover methodologies used for the assessment of capacity, efficiency and relevance of training providers 6. Enterprise Surveys will cover various types of enterprise surveys as a tool for qualitative and quantitative skills needs assessment 7. Anticipation and Matching of Skills at Regional Level will cover the key elements of sub-national demand analysis and specific methodologies and approaches used at regional (e.g. local) level 8. Intermediary Agencies and Tools in Matchingwill look into roles and modus operandi of intermediary bodies such as PES or career guidance services in matching people´s skills with jobs

Planned activities 2012/2013

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Lizzi [email protected]