Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the world tanker trade, and to adhering to all applicable laws which regulate INTERTANKO’s and its members’ activities in these markets. These laws include the anti-trust/competition laws which the United States, the European Union and many nations of the world have adopted to preserve the free enterprise system, promote competition and protect the public from monopolistic and other restrictive trade practices. INTERTANKO’s activities will be conducted in compliance with its Anti-trust/Competition Law Guidelines.
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Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the.
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Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement
INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the world tanker trade, and to adhering to all
applicable laws which regulate INTERTANKO’s and its members’ activities in these markets. These laws include the anti-trust/competition laws which the
United States, the European Union and many nations of the world have adopted to preserve the free enterprise system, promote competition and protect the public from monopolistic and other restrictive trade practices.
INTERTANKO’s activities will be conducted in compliance with its Anti-trust/Competition Law Guidelines.
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-outTankers > 10,000 dwt
m dwtm dwt
Assumed balanced market end 2008Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Assumed slippage of deliveries in 2010 which are moved to 2012
Fleet 3,837 408.6 m dwt 100% Orderbook 874 116.4 “ 28% of fleetNot DH 800 28.6 ” 7% of fleet
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Max phase out
Deletions
Delveries
Surplus zerotrade grow th
Surplus 2.5%trade grow th
Surplus 4%trade grow th
year
Assumed market balance end 2008
Minus 2% growth in 2009 and the above scenarios later
Assume tankers due for phase out before 2010 are removed 2010-2012
Tanker Prices & shipyard capacity
Source: Clarkson
Tanker newbuilding prices
m $
20
45
70
95
120
145
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sep
-10
300,000 150,000110,000 68,000
47,000
World shipyards capacity, deliveries and utilisation rates
m cgt
99%
78%
85%
74%
42%
13%
2%0
15
30
45
60
75
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sched delivery
Delivered
Capacity
Utilisation rate
Source:Worldyards
Shorttermconsiderations
Industry OECD oil stocks
Days forward demand
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Yearly average stocks
Average per decade
Floating storageby segment
Source: EA Gibson
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140D
ec-
08
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Oct
-09
No
v-0
9
De
c-0
9
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
LR1/Panamax
LR2/Aframax
Suezmax
VLCCs
Number
VLCCs arriving AG next 30 days by hull 1 Dec 2006 until 1 Oct 2010
No
Source: Pareto Bassøe ASSource: Pareto Bassøe AS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
48 3 9
15
21
27
33
39
45
51 6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48 4
10
17
23
29
35
41
47 2 8
14
20
26
32
38
43
SH DH Linear (SH) Linear (DH)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
The future
Long term opportunities
• Population growth• Many Chinese Indians African still
do not drive cars• Moderate long term economic growth?• EIA long term 1% increase in oil demand• GHG reduction measures?