Slide 1
Anthony J. MarcheseProfessor, Mechanical EngineeringDirector,
Engines and Energy Conversion LaboratoryColorado State
UniversityFort Collins, CO
80523http://www.engr.colostate.edu/~marcheseMotivation for Studying
Combustion (MECH 558): Fossil Fuel Depletion, Climate Change, Human
Health Concerns from Combustion Generated Pollutants, Fire Safety,
Energy DensityMECH 558 Lecture #1/MotivationAugust 24, 20152010
Engines and Energy Conversion LaboratoryPeak OilAre we there
yet?
The Anomalous Age of Easy Oil
FFC/GDP is fundamentally constrained by the 2nd Law of
Thermodynamics!The Master EquationFossil Fuel Depletion (A Matter
of WHENnot IF)
Fossil Fuel Consumption
Peak OilAre we there yet?
Peak OilAnomalous Age of Easy Oil is Nearing its End
Campbell, C. J. (2012). The Anomalous Age of Easy Energy.
Energy, Transport and the Environment, Springer. Peak OilAnomalous
Age of Easy Oil is Nearing its End
Campbell, C. J. (2012). The Anomalous Age of Easy Energy.
Energy, Transport and the Environment, Springer. Peak OilAnomalous
Age of Easy Oil is Nearing its EndNon-Conventional Liquid Fossil
FuelsSubstantial Resources Still Exist for GTL or CTL
Enhanced oil recoveryPotential Liquid Hydrocarbon Production
(Gbbl)Brandt, A. R and Farrell, A. E. (2007). Scraping the bottom
of the barrel: greenhouse gas emission consequences of a transition
to low-quality and synthetic petroleum resources. Climate Change,
84, pp. 241-263.Proven Fossil Fuel ReservesOil, Gas and Other
Shale Gas: Vast U.S. Resource
Shale Gas: Vast U.S. Resource
Climate ChangeRole of Anthropogenic Greenhouse CO2 Emissions
Keeling Curve, CO2 at Mauna LoaRed line is 57% of fossil fuel
CO2 emissionsClimate ChangeRole of Anthropogenic Greenhouse CO2
Emissions
Climate ChangeRole of Anthropogenic Greenhouse CO2 Emissions
Climate ChangeDisappearing Glaciers: Patagonia Glacier
Climate ChangeDisappearing Glaciers: Mt. Kilimanjaro
FebruaryFebruaryMarchClimate ChangeMelting of the Polar Ice
Sheet
Climate ChangePredicted Rise in Sea Level
Climate ChangeNatural Gas Combustion is Better than CoalRight?It
generally believed that burning natural gas for energy is better
than coal (or oil) in terms of greenhouse gas emissions:Why is it
the case that CH4 combustion should be better than coal?Is CH4
substitution advisable for stationary power plants, natural gas
vehicles, all of the above?What about emissions of unburned methane
(CH4) into the atmosphere? The global warming potential of CH4 is a
factor of 34x (or 86x) higher than CO2.
Climate ChangeNatural Gas Combustion is Better than
CoalRight?Many opportunities for CH4 to be emitted into the
atmosphere from wells, to gathering pipelines, to gathering
compressor stations, to processing plants, to transmission
pipelines, to distribution networks, to end use!If overall leakage
rate is greater than 1.5 %, replacement of diesel trucks with
natural gas is a net greenhouse penalty!Leakage rate of 3.0% is
tolerable for replacement of coal power plants with natural
gas.
#Confidential to Colorado State University Gathering and
Processing Methane Emissions ProjectClimate ChangeNatural Gas
Combustion is Better than CoalRight?Combustion research is
important here as well: methane exhaust emissions from natural gas
compression engines, on-road natural gas engines, overall engine
efficiency, etc.
MotivationHuman Health Concerns from Combustion Generated
PollutantsCOSO2NO2O3PbParticulatesAir contaminants/air toxics
MotivationHuman Health Concerns from Combustion Generated
Pollutants
Mortality Relative Risks from 10-g/m3 Increase in PM2.5
(Jarrett, et al.)MotivationHuman Health Concerns from Combustion
Generated Pollutants
U.S. EPA Diesel Emissions and Fuel
RegulationsMotivationCombustion Generated Particulate Matter
(PM)Size (and Chemical Composition) Mattersbut are not
regulated
oxy-PAHs
MotivationGlobal Human Health Concerns from Indoor Air
Pollution
MotivationGlobal Human Health Concerns from Indoor Air
PollutionIndustrialized countries have reduced combustion generated
pollutant emissions [gm/MJ] by about 98% in the past 40 yearsUrgent
public health need to reduce cooking and heating emissions in
agrarian and developing societies
MotivationGlobal Human Health Concerns from Indoor Air
PollutionIndustrialized countries have reduced combustion generated
pollutant emissions [gm/MJ] by about 98% in the past 40 yearsUrgent
public health need to reduce cooking and heating emissions in
agrarian and developing societies
MotivationFire Safety and SecurityFire kills more U.S. citizens
than all other natural disasters combined.Approximately 4,500
deaths/yearApproximately 25,000 injuries2 million reported fires
per year$10 billion/year in property damage
Why cant we prevent unwanted fires on this planet?
MotivationEnergy Density of Liquid HydrocarbonsIn terms of
energy density (MJ/m3), liquid hydrocarbons are difficult to beat,
especially when air is available as a free oxidizer.Batteries
(approx. 1 MJ/kg)Liquid hydrocarbons (approx. 50
MJ/kg)Microcombustors are very promising. What is the energy (in
kW-hr) contained is a C battery compared to the same volume of
diesel fuel?How long could you power your lap top on diesel
fuel?For some applications, batteries will NEVER be feasible in
comparison to liquid hydrocarbons.Aviation, for example
http://robobees.seas.harvard.edu/Fig1 bar +
unconv.111.16801568938.692010039153.22910940
EIAIPCCCO2 (ppmv)6004002001003000500*Oil & gas from
EIA**Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be
largeOtherMethaneHydrates
Shale Oil
Tar Sands? **Emissions (CDIAC)IPCC coalProven reserves*Reserve
growthGt CFossil Fuel Reservoirs and 17502004 Emissions
Fig1 bar + unconv.
2111.168015689Oil38.692010039Gas153.2291094Coal0Coal1200
EIAIPCCCO2 (ppmv)6004002001003000500*Oil & gas from
EIA**Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be
largeOtherMethaneHydrates
Shale Oil
Tar Sands? **Emissions (CDIAC)IPCC coalProven reserves*Reserve
growthUnconv. reserves (IPCC)Gt C
Fig stnd case
(BAU)298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226300.309285.309280.159923280.13309300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013304.006289.006280.557382280.4782304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778305.088290.088280.77052280.66074305.333290.333280.82689280.70785305.523290.523280.8777280.75119305.671290.671280.92403280.7907305.846290.846280.97624280.83575306.058291.058281.03246280.88352306.293291.293281.0948280.93671306.572291.572281.16477280.99591306.881291.881281.24715281.066307.149292.149281.32358281.1311307.435292.435281.40184281.1979307.766292.766281.48306281.2661308.104293.104281.56525281.3357308.437293.437281.6399281.3967308.787293.787281.72351281.4647309.126294.126281.82398281.5482309.352294.352281.92343281.6289309.615294.615282.02894281.7154309.95294.95282.14836281.8136310.313295.313282.2879281.9284310.642295.642282.42364282.038311.054296.054282.59141282.173311.517296.517282.78783282.3295311.977296.977282.99218282.4915312.444297.444283.20553282.661312.908297.908283.42575282.8358313.443298.443283.67626283.0369314.024299.024283.94823283.2561314.628299.628284.23462283.4836315.242300.242284.52541283.7111315.898300.898284.84426283.9586316.586301.586285.19058284.2264317.26302.26285.5596284.511317.964302.964285.9626284.8219318.717303.717286.3963285.1561319.521304.521286.8679285.5188320.363305.363287.3722285.9074321.253306.253287.9215286.3316322.163307.163288.5124286.7878323.126308.126289.1597287.2883324.157309.157289.8604287.8282325.283310.283290.6277288.4271326.443311.443291.4351289.0541327.641312.641292.2791289.7105328.907313.907293.1935290.432330.14315.14294.0818291.129331.334316.334294.8908291.75332.618317.618295.7795292.443333.938318.938296.6823293.156335.251320.251297.575293.85336.677321.677298.5386294.6338.036323.036299.424295.272339.295324.295300.2326295.868340.512325.512300.9813296.412341.708326.708301.7162296.945342.975327.975302.4844297.488344.294329.294303.2463298.016345.666330.666304.0489298.592347.07332.07304.8735299.165348.547333.547305.7543299.78350.048335.048306.6563300.407351.547336.547307.6001301.059353.055338.055308.596301.749354.475339.475309.5197302.369355.867340.867310.4485302.994357.297342.297311.3811303.624358.786343.786312.3426304.276360.314345.314313.3312304.932361.877346.877314.3537305.631363.406348.406315.3874306.334364.831349.831316.3818306.997366.309351.309317.4374307.704367.848352.848318.479308.389369.419354.419319.511309.063371.102356.102320.566309.751372.901357.901321.673310.477374.728359.728322.799311.218376.586361.586323.947311.975378.476363.476325.117312.748380.399365.399326.308313.537382.358367.358327.523314.343384.354369.354328.76315.164386.387371.387330.02316.002388.459373.459331.305316.858390.571375.571332.613317.73392.724377.724333.946318.619394.918379.918335.305319.527397.16382.16336.689320.452399.44384.44338.1321.396401.76386.76339.538322.359404.13389.13341.004323.341406.55391.55342.498324.343409.01394.01344.02325.364411.53396.53345.572326.406414.09399.09347.153327.468416.66401.66348.723328.509419.2404.2350.243329.491421.72406.72351.719330.418424.22409.22353.156331.297426.7411.7354.56332.132429.18414.18355.932332.925431.66416.66357.278333.681434.13419.13358.599334.401436.58421.58359.874335.087438.98423.98361.083335.741441.36426.36362.233336.365443.7428.7363.327336.961446.01431.01364.368337.528448.3433.3365.36338.07450.57435.57366.305338.586452.82437.82367.205339.077455.06440.06368.065339.546457.28442.28368.883339.992459.49444.49369.663340.417461.7446.7370.407340.821463.9448.9371.114341.205466.09451.09371.788341.57468.29453.29372.43341.917470.48455.48373.04342.246472.68457.68373.62342.558474.88459.88374.171342.853477.08462.08374.693343.132479.29464.29375.19343.397481.51466.51375.66343.646483.74468.74376.106343.882485.98470.98376.527344.104488.24473.24376.925344.312490.51475.51377.301344.508492.8477.8377.656344.692495.1480.1377.99344.864497.43482.43378.304345.025499.77484.77378.599345.175502.14487.14378.875345.314504.53489.53379.135345.444506.95491.95379.376345.563509.4494.4379.601345.673511.87496.87379.81345.774514.38499.38380.004345.867516.91501.91380.183345.951519.48504.48380.348346.027522.08507.08380.499346.095524.72509.72380.638346.156527.4512.4380.763346.2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OilGasCoalBiosphereBusiness-as-Usual(2% annual growth until 50%
depletion, then 2% annual decline)total fossil+biosphere 15
ppmgas+oil+coalCO2 ppm + 280gas+oil CO2 ppm + 280oil CO2 ppm +
280Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)
Fig coal
phaseout298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226300.309285.309280.159923280.13309300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013304.006289.006280.557382280.4782304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778305.088290.088280.77052280.66074305.333290.333280.82689280.70785305.523290.523280.8777280.75119305.671290.671280.92403280.7907305.846290.846280.97624280.83575306.058291.058281.03246280.88352306.293291.293281.0948280.93671306.572291.572281.16477280.99591306.881291.881281.24715281.066307.149292.149281.32358281.1311307.435292.435281.40184281.1979307.766292.766281.48306281.2661308.104293.104281.56525281.3357308.437293.437281.6399281.3967308.787293.787281.72351281.4647309.126294.126281.82398281.5482309.352294.352281.92343281.6289309.615294.615282.02894281.7154309.95294.95282.14836281.8136310.313295.313282.2879281.9284310.642295.642282.42364282.038311.054296.054282.59141282.173311.517296.517282.78783282.3295311.977296.977282.99218282.4915312.444297.444283.20553282.661312.908297.908283.42575282.8358313.443298.443283.67626283.0369314.024299.024283.94823283.2561314.628299.628284.23462283.4836315.242300.242284.52541283.7111315.898300.898284.84426283.9586316.586301.586285.19058284.2264317.26302.26285.5596284.511317.964302.964285.9626284.8219318.717303.717286.3963285.1561319.521304.521286.8679285.5188320.363305.363287.3722285.9074321.253306.253287.9215286.3316322.163307.163288.5124286.7878323.126308.126289.1597287.2883324.157309.157289.8604287.8282325.283310.283290.6277288.4271326.443311.443291.4351289.0541327.641312.641292.2791289.7105328.907313.907293.1935290.432330.14315.14294.0818291.129331.334316.334294.8908291.75332.618317.618295.7795292.443333.938318.938296.6823293.156335.251320.251297.575293.85336.677321.677298.5386294.6338.036323.036299.424295.272339.295324.295300.2326295.868340.512325.512300.9813296.412341.708326.708301.7162296.945342.975327.975302.4844297.488344.294329.294303.2463298.016345.666330.666304.0489298.592347.07332.07304.8735299.165348.547333.547305.7543299.78350.048335.048306.6563300.407351.547336.547307.6001301.059353.055338.055308.596301.749354.475339.475309.5197302.369355.867340.867310.4485302.994357.297342.297311.3811303.624358.786343.786312.3426304.276360.314345.314313.3312304.932361.877346.877314.3537305.631363.406348.406315.3874306.334364.831349.831316.3818306.997366.309351.309317.4374307.704367.848352.848318.479308.389369.419354.419319.511309.063371.102356.102320.566309.751372.901357.901321.673310.477374.728359.728322.799311.218376.586361.586323.947311.975378.476363.476325.117312.748380.399365.399326.308313.537382.358367.358327.523314.343384.354369.354328.76315.164386.387371.387330.02316.002388.459373.459331.305316.858390.555375.555332.613317.73392.677377.677333.946318.619394.826379.826335.305319.527397382336.689320.452399.21384.21338.1321.396401.45386.45339.538322.359403.72388.72341.004323.341406.02391.02342.498324.343408.35393.35344.02325.364410.72395.72345.572326.406413.11398.11347.153327.468415.48400.48348.723328.509417.78402.78350.243329.491419.96404.96351.719330.418422.03407.03353.156331.297424409354.56332.132425.87410.87355.932332.925427.66412.66357.278333.681429.36414.36358.599334.401430.96415.96359.874335.087432.45417.45361.083335.741433.82418.82362.233336.365435.08420.08363.327336.961436.24421.24364.368337.528437.3422.3365.36338.07438.27423.27366.305338.586439.14424.14367.205339.077439.93424.93368.065339.546440.63425.63368.883339.992441.25426.25369.663340.417441.79426.79370.407340.821442.25427.25371.114341.205442.64427.64371.788341.57442.94427.94372.43341.917443.18428.18373.04342.246443.35428.35373.62342.558443.44428.44374.171342.853443.47428.47374.693343.132443.5428.5375.19343.397443.54428.54375.66343.646443.57428.57376.106343.882443.59428.59376.527344.104443.61428.61376.925344.312443.62428.62377.301344.508443.62428.62377.656344.692443.61428.61377.99344.864443.6428.6378.304345.025443.57428.57378.599345.175443.54428.54378.875345.314443.49428.49379.135345.444443.44428.44379.376345.563443.38428.38379.601345.673443.31428.31379.81345.774443.24428.24380.004345.867443.15428.15380.183345.951443.06428.06380.348346.027442.96427.96380.499346.095442.86427.86380.638346.156442.75427.75380.763346.209442.63427.63380.875346.255442.5427.5380.977346.295442.37427.37381.068346.329442.23427.23381.146346.356442.09427.09381.215346.377441.94426.94381.274346.393441.79426.79381.322346.402441.63426.63381.361346.407441.46426.46381.392346.407441.3426.3381.413346.401441.12426.12381.426346.391440.95425.95381.431346.376440.77425.77381.429346.357440.58425.58381.419346.334440.39425.39381.402346.307440.2425.2381.377346.275440.01425.01381.347346.241439.81424.81381.31346.202439.61424.61381.267346.16439.4424.4381.218346.115439.2424.2381.163346.066438.99423.99381.103346.015438.77423.77381.037345.96438.23423.23380.641345.903437.72422.72380.273345.843437.24422.24379.927345.781436.77421.77379.597345.716436.32421.32379.282345.649435.88420.88378.976345.579435.01420.01378.236345.063434.2419.2377.549344.59433.42418.42376.903344.15432.69417.69376.292343.738431.99416.99375.71343.348431.31416.31375.153342.977430.66415.66374.618342.622430.02415.02374.101342.281429.41414.41373.602341.952428.81413.81373.118341.634428.23413.23372.648341.326427.66412.66372.191341.026427.11412.11371.746340.735426.57411.57371.313340.452426.04411.04370.89340.175425.52410.52370.477339.905425.02410.02370.074339.642424.52409.52369.68339.385424.04409.04369.295339.133423.57408.57368.919338.888423.1408.1368.55338.647422.64407.64368.19338.412422.2407.2367.837338.182421.76406.76367.491337.956421.33406.33367.153337.735420.9405.9366.82337.518420.49405.49366.496337.306420.08405.08366.177337.098419.68404.68365.864336.894419.29404.29365.558336.694418.9403.9365.256336.497418.52403.52364.962336.305418.15403.15364.671336.115417.78402.78364.386335.929417.42402.42364.107335.747417.07402.07363.832335.567416.72401.72363.562335.391416.37401.37363.297335.218416.03401.03363.036335.048415.7400.7362.779334.88415.37400.37362.528334.716415.05400.05362.28334.554414.73399.73362.035334.394414.42399.42361.795334.237414.11399.11361.559334.083413.8398.8361.326333.931413.5398.5361.097333.781413.21398.21360.871333.634412.91397.91360.649333.489412.63397.63360.43333.346
OilGasCoalBiosphereAlternative Case: Coal Phaseout(+2%/yr to
2012; +1%/yr to 2022; linear shutdown between 2025-2050)total
fossil+biosphere 15 ppmgas+oil+coalCO2 ppm + 280gas+oil CO2 ppm +
280oil CO2 ppm + 280Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)