Antarctic Science Global Relevance Dr Anna E Jones ATCM XXVI Madrid, June 2003 Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research.

Antarctic Science Global Relevance

Dr Anna E JonesATCM XXVI

Madrid, June 2003

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research

The Antarctic Ozone Hole

Evolution of the Antarctic Continent

Genomics as a tool for biological

investigation

Evolving global atmosphere and

climate

Antarctica as indicator of climate change

Sun-Earth connections

Evolution of the Antarctic continent

~180 Million years ago

~90 Million years ago

Antarctic fossil record…

~30 Million years ago

~30 Million years ago

~30 Million years ago

Present day

Take-Home Message:

• The break-up of Gondwana ultimately led to the formation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

• This current allowed the first exchange of water between the major oceans

• The ocean currents as we know them today were established with the formation of Antarctica, 30 million years ago

Science Issue 1

The Antarctic Ozone Hole

The Ozone Layer

Ozone amount

Curtesy of Centre for Atmospheric Science, Cambridge University, UK

ozone amount (nb)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

alti

tud

e (

km)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

July

sfdsfgstgrhthtfjyfjytg

ozone amount (nb)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

alti

tud

e (k

m)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

July October

was

Satellite image of Antarctic ozone hole in September

“Ground truth” from network of measurement stations

Antarctic ozone hole over populated areas…

Impact of the Montreal Protocol

part

Take-Home Message:

• First indisputable evidence that human activity can alter the Earth on a global scale

• Completely unexpected!

• Ozone loss developed very rapidly and could not be halted

• It will take at least 50 years before the hole disappears

Science Issue 2

Evolving atmospheric

chemistry and climate

Greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2)

Greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2)

CO2 measurements in air at South Pole

Year

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

CO

2 am

ou

nt

(pp

mv)

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

Col 1 vs Col 2 Col 1 vs Col 3

AnAas

C

O2 a

mo

un

t

Greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2)

CO2 in the recent past from air and ice core measurements

Year (AD)

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

CO

2 (p

pm

v)

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

South Pole Air Samples

CO

2 a

mo

un

t

Greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2)CO2 in the recent past from air and ice core measurements

Year (AD)

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

CO

2 (p

pm

v)

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

South Pole Air SamplesLaw Dome Ice Core Data

CO

2 a

mo

un

t

Greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2)

CO2 in the past from air and ice core measurements

Year (AD)

-400,000 -350,000 -300,000 -250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0

CO

2 (p

pm

v)

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

South Pole Air SamplesLaw Dome Ice Core DataVostok Ice Core Data

CO

2 a

mou

nt

Years before present400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000400,00 400,00 400,00 400,00 0

Past and future CO2 atmospheric concentrations

Year (AD)

Pro

ject

ion

s

Air

measu

rem

en

ts

Ice c

ore

d

ata

Adapted from IPCC Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report

Greenhouse gases: Methane (CH4)2D Graph 1

Year

-4e+5 -3e+5 -2e+5 -1e+5 0

meth

an

e (

pp

bv)

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

meth

an

e a

mou

nt

Years before present400,000

300,000 200,000

100,000 0

Temperature…

• We know CO2 has increased through time

• Wide discussion over potential for enhanced CO2 to alter global climate

• What can we learn of this association by looking at past climate..?

Climate and greenhouse gases have been very closely

connected

200

250

300

350

400

01x1052x1053x1054x1050

200

400

600

800CH

4

(right axis)

CO2

(left axis)

Years BP (before present)

CO

2 / pp

mv

CH

4 / pp

bv

-10

-5

0

5

Est

imat

ed T

diff

eren

cefr

om to

day

/ C

400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0Years before present

Esti

mate

d T

diff

ere

nce

from

tod

ay /

oC

CO

2 a

mou

nt

an

A

Meth

an

e

am

ou

nt

Take Home Message:

Ice core data shows us that:

• CO2 concentrations are currently ~30% greater than in the previous 400,000 years

• Methane is more than 2 times greater than in the previous 400,000 years

• Clear association between changes in Greenhouse gases and changes in global temperature

Deep Antarctic Ice Cores

Dome Fuji

Vostok

Dome C

Dome C drilling projectJoint European project involving 10 countries

Drilling started 1996, currently 100 m above bedrock

• Ice core now 3201m in length

• Oldest ice believed to be ~900,000 years ie. twice as old as Vostok or Fuji

Dome C ice core

Science Issue 3

Antarctica as indicator of climate

change

Surface temperature change “hotspots”

0.4Annual average temperature change (oC) from 1950 to 1998 was

Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

Faraday/Vernadsky

Break-up of the Larsen A Ice Shelf

Break-up of the Peninsula ice shelves

Wordie Ice Shelf

Take Home Message:

• The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming places on the Earth with ~2.5oC rise in temperature over the past 50 years

• However this warming is not reflected over the whole of Antarctica

• Currently viewed as a signal of regional, rather than global warming – but we must monitor it!

Science Issue 4

Sun – Earth Connections

Solar variability• The sun is not static

• The number of solar storms has increased by roughly a factor 3 during the past 100 years

• Solar variability has an influence on the Earth’s atmosphere and climate

• Need to quantify this influence for realistic representation in numerical models of the atmosphere and climate

What do we mean by Sun-Earth connection?

Include picture of magnetosphere

Radars to study Aurora!

Auroral Radar network

9 radars in the northern hemisphere

6 radars in the southern hemisphere

The future of the Antarctic Auroral Radar Network

Planned new radar:

• New Zealand

• Zhongshan Station

• Dome Concordia

• South Pole Station

Take Home Message:

• Need to understand how solar energy is affecting the Earth’s atmosphere and climate

• Solar effects are focussed in polar regions

• Example of tremendous international collaboration to yield the maximum scientific potential

Science Issue 5

Genomics as a tool for biological investigation

Genomics – a new scientific discipline

• Come about as a result of the Human Genome Project

• This project resulted in a range of new tools allowing study of genetic material - structure, function, and adaptations

• Information about genetic adaptation is providing exciting insights into biological evolution

Antarctic marine organisms evolved in a very

extreme but very stable environment

They therefore provide very useful information on how organisms adapt and respond to stresses

Anti-freeze proteins in ice fish

Example of evolution in an extreme habitat – but what is the genetic basis for this adaptation..?

Antarctica as model for ecosystems

Antarctic ecosystem is very diverse very few layers in the food chain excellent model in which to study

link between the gene and the environment

Take Home Message

• Genomics is a new scientific discipline, arising from the Human Genome Project

• This new technology is already being applied to polar regions

• It is generating knowledge of evolution and biological adaptation of wide scientific and commercial interest

The Antarctic Ozone Hole

Evolution of the Antarctic Continent

Genomics as a tool for biological

investigation

Evolving global atmosphere and

climate

Antarctica as indicator of climate change

Sun-Earth connections

Sub-

Glacial

Lake

s

Ice sheet

stability

Conservation

Cryosphere/atmosphere

interactions

Spac

e w

eath

er

Sea ice variability

Big Questions for the Future:

• What is the role of the Southern Ocean in CO2 exchange?

• What has controlled large global climate changes of the past and what is the implication for the future?

• How will Antarctica affect global sea level?

• How do ecosystems respond to climate challenges?

Overall conclusion!

Scientific study in Antarctica is critical to understanding

the Earth system

“Antarctica: Continent for peace and science”