Another Bump in the Road for Oil Marketsweb1.amchouston.com/flexshare/001/CFA/2017... · for drilling in Q2/Q3/Q4 earnings reports •Oil service and machinery stocks quickly rose

Another Bump in the Road for Oil Markets:What It Means for Houston’s Economy

Robert W. Gilmer, Ph.D.C.T. Bauer College of Business

March 2017

Is It Finally Over? Maybe Not?

• Late 2015 and early 2016 may have been the worst period ever for American oil, and we have now lost about 77,000 local oil-related jobs since December 2014

• Recent revisions to Houston’s employment data show no job growth over the first 20 months of the drilling bust. Job growth of 18,000 new jobs over the last four months are a response to higher oil prices?

• Unlike many other oil downturns, the U.S. economy continues to grow strongly, helping Houston’s employers that sell into national markets. A major expansion of petrochemicals on the ship helped carry Houston, but it is now winding down

• Optimism crept into the drilling market in recent months, with growing conviction that we put the worst behind us. Oil prices rose, the rig count followed, and OPEC added momentum to oil markets with production cuts.

• But ALL the optimism built into oil prices by OPEC disappeared in the last couple of weeks. Speculator impatience, High oil inventories, adverse comments from Saudi’s, …

• U.S. growth? A definitive turn in drilling? The end of petrochemical construction? Another drop in oil prices? How does it all add up?

For Houston, Its Problems Have Been All About Oil Prices

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WTI $/bbl. Monthly

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WTI $/bbl. Daily in 2016-17

Current Slowdown Marked The End Of A Decade Of Job Growth

(annual percent change)

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Note: December to December changes, except 2017 which is year-to-date, annualized, and seasonally adjusted. TWC estimates.

Slow But Still Positive: Houston Job Growth Revised Down to 18,500 Jobs In 2015-16

(3-month percent change at annual rates, s.a.)

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U.S.

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Texas Workforce Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Official Figures Point To Houston Job Growth That Is Stymied By the Oil Bust

December to December Changes

Jobs Change*

2012 118,600 4.3%

2013 89,800 3.2%

2014 117,800 4.0%

2015 20,700 0.7%

2016 … through 12,500 0.5%

Texas Workforce Commission

Sector Before Revision Dec to Dec

After RevisionDec to Dec

Jobs Jobs % Growth

2012 118,600 118,800 4.4%

2013 89,800 90,400 3.2%

2014 117,800 118,200 4.1%

2015 15,200 200 0.0%

2016 14,800 18,700 0.6%

Oil-Related Job Losses Grow to 77,200 After Revisions

(Net Change in Jobs, Dec. to Dec.)Sector In 2015Dec ‘14 – Dec ‘15

In 2016Dec 15 – Dec 16

New Jobs Percent New Jobs Percent

Total Payroll 200 0.0% 18,700 0.6%

Mining -19,200 -16.5% -10.400 -10.7%

Construction 5,600 5.6% -2,500 -1.1%

Manufacturing -28,700 -10.9% -11,700 -5.0%

Machinery -12,100 -20.0% -8,500 -17.6%

Fab Metal -13,800 -20.8% -4,900 -9.3%

Wholesale Trade -3,500 -2.1% -2,100 -1.2%

Prof/Buss Services -2,200 -0.5% -500 -0.0%

*Revised Texas Workforce Commission estimates. Oil –Related Jobs = Oil Producers and Services, Machinery and Fabricated Metal, Wholesale Trade, and Professional and Business Services.

Growth Of Selected Services Revised Down But Remains Strong

Number of Jobs in Key Services Revised Down, seas. adj.

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New Jobs Added Since Oil Crisis Begins in Dec 2014 (and recent revisions)

• 22,971 health care (-3,425)

• 20,836 food service (-7,850)

• 16,805 local government (+3,342)

• 10,756 retail trade (-8,679)

• 5,954 finance (+3,440)

• 4,207 arts/entertainment (-14)

• 4,148 private education (+394)

• 1,202 accommodation (-492)

• 86,026 all 8 sectors (-14,098)Texas Workforce Commission

Downward revisionof 14,098 jobs

Where Did This Service Sector Growth Come From?

• Where did this services growth come from? • Strong national markets: United Airlines, Sysco, AIG, HP• Petrochemical construction boom in East Houston• Past momentum, built on Houston’s 680,000 new jobs from

2004-2014• In-migrations continues strongly for several quarters after job

growth slows• Most direct damage is confined to oil producers, oil services,

and manufacturing … so far

• BUT … we are now 26 months into this slowdown. The chemical boom is over, momentum has waned, population growth is evaporating. Only the U.S. economy left to help out … until drilling turns up.

Plenty Of Other Signs Of A Big Slowdown Or Mild Reversal

Houston unemployment rate moves above U.S. to 5.4%

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Quarterly Sales and Use Tax Collections Down 11.4 and 8.5 Percent for City & METRO MTA

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City of Houston

Bureau of Labor Statistics

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METRO MTA

Texas Comptroller, seasonally adjusted; Through 2016Q4

Houston Purchasing Managers’ Index Makes Strong Move Up in 2017

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Index, seas. adj.

US Index Houston Index 50 Neutral

U.S.

Houston

Was It Recession? Ask The Dallas Fed Business Cycle Index

Tracks local business cycle with four variables

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We were on brink of recession in 2016, if not in It

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2013 - 2016

Oil Markets and Oil Price

Global Oil Demand Has Held SteadyThis Has Been a Supply Problem

(million bbl./d)

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Great Recession

Fracking Bust

Asian Financial Crisis/Tech Bust

Commodity Boom

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Drilling Recovery Means Oil Near $65/bbl.

Long-Run Marginal Cost of Global Oil Production

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$/bbl.

Production (million bbl./d)This is chart is stylized and illustrative

Price Of WTI Oil As Implied by Valuation Of The Stock of 40

Producers

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$/bbl.

Goldman Sachs Research, at first week of each quarter

The Commodity Super-Cycle Is Over(price index: Jan 2001 = 100)

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Food

Ag Raw Materials

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International Monetary Fund

Growth In The Demand For Oil Comes From Emerging Markets

(million b/d)

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1996-2003 2003-2016

Global

OECD

Non-OECD

International Energy Agency

Emerging Markets Lead Improving Global Economy

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World EmergingMkts

India China Brazil

Annual Growth Rate %

2016 2017 2018

IMF, World Economic Outlook

On Supply Side? U.S. Shale Reversed40 Years Of Declining Oil Production

(million barrels/day)

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DOE/EIA, Seasonally adjusted by IRF

Peak: July 2015Down 753,200 bbl./d

As Oil Prices Rose This Spring, Some Optimism Returned To The Oil Market

• The big three oil service companies all declared a bottom was in place for drilling in Q2/Q3/Q4 earnings reports

• Oil service and machinery stocks quickly rose 30% in February and March as oil prices moved off $30/bbl., and are up 30% since then

• The rig count steadily added back over 300 rigs from the March low

• But “a long, slow grind ahead,” “no V-shaped recovery in sight,” and “land recovering, but not yet international and offshore”

• IN the last two weeks, oil prices don’t quickly respond to OPEC cuts, optimism fades

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S&P Oil Service And MachineryStock Price Index

Oil prices improve

OPEC accord signed ->

All Progress Lost on Higher Oil Prices Since OPEC Pact: Oil Price Never

Close to $60

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WTI Futures $/bbl.

$60/bbl.

March 17Before OPEC Pact

March 3

After OPEC Pact

Drilling Has Definitively Turned Up from Historic Lows … But Where Now?

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Weekly Count of Working Rigs

Weeks after peak in drilling activity

488 Rig Count was previous all-time low

2008-2009

2014-2016

Thinking About RecoveryIn the Oil Patch

Recovery In Rig Count After Oil Prices Definitively Move Up

(working rigs by quarter after oil prices begin to rise, s.a.)

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Quarters after recovery

2008-09

1997-98

2001-03

1982-87

Baker Hughes, calculations of IRF

Three Scenarios for a Drilling Recovery

• Rig Count? • High Scenario: Strong recovery like 2008-09

continues to unfold • Medium Scenario: Slows in 2017Q2/Q3 but

moderate recovery continues • Low Scenario falls back in 2017 Q2, remains

low and slow trough 2018

• Rig Count Max After Recovery? • High Scenario: 1650• Medium Scenario: 1500• Low Scenario: 1300

• Return of Drilling Jobs in Houston • High Scenario: 2017Q1• Medium Scenario: 2017Q3• Low Scenario: 2018Q4

High scenario requires a quick rebound in oil prices to $55, and continued move to $60-$65 range; moderate requires a return to $55 or better; low scenario triggered by continued oil price near $45, and staying at that level through 2017 and into 2018.

Rig Count Scenarios and the Return Of Oil Employment In Houston

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Rig Count

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Oil-Related Jobs in Houston (000)

High Medium Low

U.S. Economy Continues to Work for Houston

U.S. Economy Continues To Grow Strongly And Create Jobs

• Assume in all scenarios that the U.S. economy has put the Great Recession behind it

• Consumer has deleveraged; state and local governments are collecting revenues at a healthy rate and spending; the housing market has returned to close to normal

• U.S. job growth is at 1.7 percent or about 200,000 jobs per month throughout the forecast horizon

• We see the export sector, especially manufacturing struggling with the strong dollar, but domestic growth is robust

Last Year a Split Emerged Between Growth In Production And Jobs

GDP Growth Has Slowed Sharply in Recent Quarters

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% Change at Annual Rates

While U.S. Job Growth Remains Quite Strong

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Q4

000 New Jobs Per Quarter

Results Are Consistent With Robust Domestic Growth And Weak Exports

Productivity Growth Is Slow

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% Change in Productivity12 Quarter Average

Weak Export Sector

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% Change Annual Rates

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

(percent chance of recession)

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SubprimeBlows Up

US Financial Crisis

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Percent

2001 Recession

Source: Chauvet and Piger smoothed recession probabilities, FRED, St. Louis Fed

Fed Funds Rate: What the Futures Market Says

Meeting Date Range b.p. Prob. of Increase Change

Current 75-100 --

3-May 75-100 6.40% --

14-Jun 100-125 54.00% +

15-Jul 100-125 12.10% --

20-Sep 100-125 33.70% --

1-Nov 100-125 37.50% --

13-Dec 125-150 59.10% +

31-Jan 125-150 21.60% --

CME Group, March 20. Table assumes as soon as probability of a rate increase passes 50% an increase is triggered of 25 basis points.

Downstream Boom Offsets Upstream Bust

Low Oil Prices Keep Gulf Coast Refining Margins Strong

($/bbl)

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margin

Six-mo avg

Pace refining margins, Oil and Gas Journal

Natural Gas Prices Collapsed In Late 2011

($/mcf)

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DOE/EIA

$164 Billion U.S. Construction Boom Is Based On Cheap Energy

• This $164 billion total includes many industries and all of the U.S.

• New ethylene crackers, more ethylene-related expansion in PE, PVC and other derivative plants

• LNG export terminals to sell surplus natural gas into global markets

• Refiners have joined in with additional expansions

Note: The $164 billion figure is based on all U.S. shale-related expansion, estimatedby the American Chemistry Council in April, 2016

Natural Gas Energy Content Now Equivalent $15 per Barrel

For Oil

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nat gas $/b

DOE/EIA and calculations of the author

Large Projects Headlined Over $50 Billion In East Houston Construction

Company Location Project Completion Value ($ mil)

Exxon Baytown Ethylene 2017 $5,000

Chevron Freeport Ethylene 2017 $4,000

Dow Baytown Ethylene 2017 $3,500

BASF Freeport Ethylene 2017 $3,000

Freeport LNG Freeport LNG Export 2019 $3,000

Freeport LNG Freeport LNG Export 2020 $3,000

Bayer Baytown PUR Facility 2021 $2,000

CPV Freeport Gas to Polypropylene 2017 $1,500

Freeport LNG Freeport Methane to Propylene 2018 $1,400

Projects Begin To Wind Down Rapidly After 2017

(Value of Projects Completed, $ million)

$8,319

$22,706

$4,980$4,000

$3,000$2,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Put It All Together

• Three oil scenarios: high, medium, or low. High sees solid recovery now underway in drilling; medium sees strength delayed until early 2017; low until late 2017

• Continued U.S. expansion at moderate rates

• The end of most of the petrochemical construction on the East Side. Some new construction, but nothing to replace the boom-time construction that finishes

• Data revisions that point to possible mild local recession in in early 2016.

Forecast Job Growth In Houston: 2014-2021

(000 New Jobs, Q4/Q4)

By Scenario

Year High Medium Low 25/60/15

2014 112.7 112.7 112.7 112.7

2015 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3

2016 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2

2017 54.0 37.1 8.9 34.3

2018 69.2 46.1 14.4 44.0

2019 80.3 60.0 37.0 59.3

2020 83.9 70.4 52.5 69.3

2021 87.5 76.1 64.4 76.1

Calculations of IRF, based on drilling scenarios above. Figures are Q4/Q4. The 2016 calculations include preliminary revisions, and are estimates of the March 2017 re-benchmark. They will not match 2016 total to be published in January.

In-Migration Follows Job Growth: Forecast In-Migration for Houston

• When population grows, in-migration gives biggest economic stimulus

• As job growth rises, in-migration begins to rise a year later

• In recovery, in-migration falls a year behind

• Data at right matches 25/60/15 weighted employment forecast, sees a 2019 trough for in-migration 0

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40

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120

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Annual Increase: New Jobs vs. In-Migration

(000 YoY)

New Jobs

In-Migration

Existing Home Sales: Beware the Averages

Existing Home Sales Flat In Houston Since 2012

(sales, s.a.)

3500

4500

5500

6500

7500

8500

9500

• Flat since 2012? First, due to lack of existing and new home supply, now due to mix

• Median home prices rose rapidly after 2011, at 9.4 percent annually from 2012-2014

• 2016 saw continued high level of sales, relief on inventories, prices rising but more slowly

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

Strong Growth And Lot Shortages Distorted Single-Family Housing Market

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Ap

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Jan

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Months Supply

140

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200

220

240

Jan

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No

v-…

Sep

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Jul-

10

May

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Mar

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Jan

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No

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15

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Median Price

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center, seasonal adjustment by IRF

Another Bump in the Road for Oil Markets:What It Means for Houston’s Economy

Robert W. Gilmer, Ph.D.C.T. Bauer College of Business

March 2017

Ship Channel CitiesBaytown, Channelview, Pasadena

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Sales and Home Prices Rising

Sales Price

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1.7

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2.3

2.5

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Inventory only 2.5 months

Inventory

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center, calculations of IRF

South HoustonSouth Belt, Clear Lake, League City

100120140160180200220240

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450

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Sales flat, prices rising

Sales Price

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1.6

1.8

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15

Oct

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Ap

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16

Oct

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Not much left to sell withtwo months inventory

Inventory


Close-InRice Military, Heights, Galleria

80

130

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230

280

330

380

430

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210

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250

270

290

Tho

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s

Sales and Prices Sag in 2015

Sales Price

3

4

5

6

7

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-

16

Sep

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No

v-1

6

Inventory now tightening, as oil prices rise

Inventory


South Of I-10 WestMemorial and Energy Corridor

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80100120140160180

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Prices hold up despitesagging sales

Sales Price

1.5

3.5

5.5

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Ap

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5

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Oct

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Jan

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Ap

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Jul-

16

Oct

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Inventory back to 4 months as oil prices

rise?

Inventory


The Woodlands Cools Off

250

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270

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Sales down, Price trying to recover

Sales Price

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3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

Inventories stabilizing

Inventory


KatyKaty North and South

150

170

190

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290

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350

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450

500

550

Tho

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Sales and price holding on

Sales Price

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Inventories rise, but nowfalling again

Inventory


Other Distant SuburbsPearland, Sugar Land, Kingwood

200

250

300

350

400

300

400

500

600

Tho

usa

nd

s

Sales & price still strong

Sales Price1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Inventories remain very low

Inventory


Top-end Buyers Lost To Oil Bust, Bottom Of The Market Wants Back In

• High-end market for executives and professionals is gone for the next couple of years

• There are 2.3 million households in Houston. Every time affordability ticks up one percent, it locks 23,000 families out of the market.

• Affordability down 4-5 percent means over 100,000 families were pushed out since 2013

• They have household incomes of $65-$75,000 and can qualify for $250,000 product. Can we deliver near this price point?

40

50

60

70

80

90

Affordability Index: Percentage of Houston

households that can afford median priced home

Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index

Another Bump in the Road for Oil Marketsweb1.amchouston.com/flexshare/001/CFA/2017... · for drilling in Q2/Q3/Q4 earnings reports •Oil service and machinery stocks quickly rose

Documents