Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2013: Trade and Resilience

IFPRI/Badiane  

OUSMANE  BADIANE  Director  for  Africa  

 Interna:onal  Food  Policy  Research  Ins:tute  

ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013    

Feature  Topic:  Trade  and  Resilience  

 MAIN  TOPICS  

1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS

2  

3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013  

FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

 MAIN  TOPICS  

1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS

2  

3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013  

FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

OVERALL  GDP  GROWTH  TRENDS  

Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    COMESA   Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS  

Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS   Annual  GDP  growrth  rate,  1980  –  2010    SADC  

PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  –  BY  RECs  

Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    COMESA   Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS  

Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS   Agriculture  GDP  growth,  1980  –  2010    SADC  

PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  COMESA  

Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    COMESA  

PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECCAS  

Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS  

PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECOWAS  

Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS  

PROGRESS  TOWARDS  GROWTH  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  SADC  

Agriculture  GDP  growth  by  country,  1980  –  2010    SADC  

PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  RECs  

Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    COMESA   Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    ECCAS  

Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    ECOWAS   Agriculture  expenditure  share,  1980  –  2010    SADC  

PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  COMESA  

Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    COMESA  

PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECCAS  

Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    ECCAS  

PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  ECOWAS  

Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    ECOWAS  

PROGRESS  TOWARDS  MAPUTO  TARGET  BY  COUNTRY  -­‐  SADC  

Agriculture  expenditure  share  by  country  -­‐    SADC  

ANNUAL  GROWTH  RATE  OF  PUBLIC  AG.  EXPENDITURE  –  2003  -­‐  2010  

Source:  Benin  and  Yu.  ATOR  2012.    

 MAIN  TOPICS  

1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS

2  

3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013  

FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

EXPORT GROWTH

INDUST. GROWTH

1%Growth

0.04%To

1.83%

AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Niger Senegal Zambia BurkinaFaso

The  increase  in  non-­‐agricultural  incomes  resul:ng  from  $1.00  incremental  revenue  from  sales  of  agricultural  products    

The  increase  in  non-­‐agricultural  growth  resul:ng  from  1%  incremental  revenue  from  agricultural  exports  

TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  INCOME/REVENUE  CHANNEL  

0.00%  

10.00%  

20.00%  

30.00%  

40.00%  

50.00%  

60.00%  

70.00%  

Ra:o  between  domes:c  and  global  supply  vola:lity    

GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  SUPPLY  STABILIZATION  CHANNEL  

•  World prices of maize, rice, and wheat are less volatile (0.073 – 0.082) than African prices of the same commodities (0.094 – 0.144)

•  Prices of tradable goods in Africa are less volatile (0.106) than prices of non-tradable goods (0.133)

•  Prices of processed foods (bread & cooking oil) are less volatile than prices of unprocessed foods

•  Prices of drought-resistant grains (millet & sorghum) are less volatile than prices of other non-tradable grains (maize)

GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  PRICE  STABILIZATION  CHANNEL  

-­‐1   -­‐0.8   -­‐0.6   -­‐0.4   -­‐0.2   0   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.8   1   1.2  

ZAF  ZWE  

Oceania  Africa  NGA  UGA  BFA  BWA  MOZ  SSA  

South  America  CPV  NER  ZMB  STP  

North  America  CAF  

NAM  CEMAC  

RWA  CIV  COG  SEN  GAB  TUN  Asia  

Correla:on  between  export  and  import  prices  for  agricultural  products      

TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  EXPORT  DIVERSIFICATION  CHANNEL  

 MAIN  TOPICS  

1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS

2  

3   REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

GLOBAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

ANNUAL  TRENDS  AND  OUTLOOK  REPORT  2013  

FEATURE  TOPIC:  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE  

Potential agribusiness growth and expected income to farmersUS$ billion

3 8

50

10 10.5

150

High value exports

Commodities Urban food

2000

2030

2.9 1.6 30Potential Increased farmer income in 2030

Expected sector growth to 2030

Increase  in  Demand  and  Incomes  in  Billion  US$    

IFPRI/Badiane  

REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  INCOME/REVENUE  CHANNEL  

REGIONAL  TRADE  AND  RESILIENCE:  THE  SUPPLY  STABILIZATION  CHANNEL  C

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Mal

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0

10

20

30

40

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ECOWAS Cereal Production Instability, 1980--2010

COM

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Com

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Mad

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Swaz

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Zam

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Rwan

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

COMESA Cereal Production Instability, 1980--2010

SA

DC

Sou

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Ang

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Nam

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Mal

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Moz

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Sw

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Mau

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0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

SADC cereal production instability, 1980--2010

The  difference  between  the  average  regional  produc:on  vola:lity  levels  and  individual  country  vola:lity  indicates  scope  of  domes:c  market  stabiliza:on  through  regional  trade  

0  

50  

100  

150  

200  

250  

300  

350  

0-­‐10   10-­‐20   20-­‐30   30-­‐40   40-­‐50   50-­‐60   60-­‐70   70-­‐80   80-­‐90   90-­‐100  

Num

ber  o

f  cou

ntry  Pairs  

Produc@on  Similarity  Index  

COMESA  

ECOWAS  

SADC  

Similarity  of  produc:on  paferns  within  RECs,  2007-­‐2011    

SPECIALIZATION  AND  TRADE  EXPANSION  POTENTIAL    

More  scope  for  trade   Less  scope  for  trade  

0  

100  

200  

300  

400  

500  

600  

700  

800  

0-­‐10   10-­‐20   20-­‐30   30-­‐40   40-­‐50   50-­‐60   60-­‐70   70-­‐80   80-­‐90   90-­‐100  

Num

ber  o

f  Cou

ntry  Pairs  

Export  Similarity  Index  

COMESA  

ECOWAS  

SADC  

Similarity  of  export  paferns  within  RECs,  2007-­‐2011    

SPECIALIZATION  AND  TRADE  EXPANSION  POTENTIAL    

More  scope  for  trade   Less  scope  for  trade  

q  Baseline  =  2000-­‐2007    

q  SIM1  =  0.5%  reduc:on  in  trade  cost  annually  2013  –  2020  

q  SIM2  =    50%  increase  in  yields  by  2020  

q  SIM3  =  Combine  SIM1  and  SIM2  

ALTERNATIVE  POLICY  OPTIONS  TO  EXPAND  REGIONAL  TRADE    

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  Bu

rkinaFaso  

Cape

Verde  

Chad  

Gambia  

Mali  

Mauritania  

Niger  

Sene

gal  

Percen

tage  

BASE   SIM1   SIM2   SIM3  

CHANGE  IN  REGIONAL  IMPORTS  SAHELIAN  COUNTRIES  BY  2020  UNDER  ALTERNATIVE  SCENARIOS    

-­‐15  

-­‐10  

-­‐5  

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

BurkinaFaso  

Cape

Verde  

Chad  

Gambia  

Mali  

Mauritania  

Niger  

Sene

gal  

Percen

tage    

BASE   SIM1   SIM2   SIM3  

CHANGE  IN  REGIONAL  EXPORTS  SAHELIAN  COUNTRIES  BY  2020  UNDER  ALTERNATIVE  SCENARIOS    

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

Baseline   SIM1   SIM2   SIM3  

Percen

tage  

CHANGE  IN  TOTAL  WEST  AFRICAN  INTRA-­‐REGIONAL  EXPORTS  BY  2020  UNDER  ALTERNATIVE  SCENARIOS