Energy Information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Energy Information Administration December 12, 2007 www.eia.doe.gov
Jan 03, 2016
Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
Annual Energy Outlook 2008
Energy Information AdministrationDecember 12, 2007
www.eia.doe.gov
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1995 2006 2015 2030
AEO2007 High
AEO2007 Low
AEO2007 Reference
AEO2008 High
AEO2008 Low
AEO2008 Reference
Reference
High Price
Low Price
ProjectionHistory
World oil prices are higher in all AEO2008 cases
2006 dollars per barrel
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2006 AEO2007 AEO2008 AEO2007 AEO2008 AEO2007 AEO2008
2010 2020
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Coal
2030
Renewables
100.0
123.8131.2
113.6118.2
103.6106.5
U.S. primary energy consumption is lower in all years
quadrillion Btu
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
per capita
per dollar real GDP
History Projection
Energy use per capita is constant and per dollar of GDP falls at 1.6 percent per year
(index, 1970=1.0)
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 5
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Industrial
Transportation
Residential and Commercial
Electric Power
ProjectionHistory
Transportation sector dominates liquid fuel consumption
million barrels per day
Net liquids import dependence is lower in AEO2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net Imports
History Projection
AEO2008AEO2007
million barrels per day
60%
59%61%
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 7
Domestic crude oil production grows in the near term
0
2
4
6
8
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Lower 48 Onshore
Lower 48 Offshore
ProjectionHistory
Alaska
AEO2007AEO2008
million barrels per day
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 8
0
1
2
3
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Carbon DioxideEnhanced Oil Recovery
Conventional + Other EOR
AEO2007
AEO2008
Lower-48 onshore carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery grows rapidly
million barrels per day
0
4
8
12
16
20
2006 2010 2020 2030
CornBased
Renewable Fuel Standard
Cellulose Based
Ethanol supply dominated by corn exceeds the RFS, includes strong growth in imports
Imports
billion gallons
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2006 AEO2007 AEO2008 AEO2007 AEO2008 AEO2007 AEO2008
2010 2020
Transportation
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
2030
21.823.4
26.1
24.126.3
23.224.0
Natural gas consumption is lower in all sectors in AEO2008 compared to AEO2007
Electric Power
Trillion cubic feet
Natural gas consumption and production is lower and the net import share narrows
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
History Projection
Consumption
Production
AEO2007AEO2008
Net Imports
trillion cubic feet
16%15%
21%
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 12
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ProjectionHistory
Pipeline
LNG AEO2007AEO2008
Net pipeline and, particularly, LNG imports are lower in AEO2008
trillion cubic feet
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 13
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AEO2008AEO2007
History Projection
Despite lower demand, natural gas wellhead prices are slightly higher in AEO2008
2006 dollars per thousand cubic feet
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2010 2020 2030
22.5 22.9
26.5
Coal-to-LiquidsOther
ElectricPower
32.8
U.S. coal consumption is predominantly used for electricity generation with growing use for CTL
quadrillion Btu
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2006 AEO2007
AEO2008
AEO2007
AEO2008
AEO2007
AEO2008
2010 2020
3,8214,0214,132
4,5714,756Transportation
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
2030
5,4785,149
U.S. electricity consumption is lower in AEO2008
billion kilowatthours
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 16
Coal dominates capacity additions, but nuclear/renewables play a growing role
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030
Natural Gas
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
gigawatts
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 17
2
9
2019
49
1
1214
17
55
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Renewable Petroleum
2006
2030: AEO2007
2030: AEO2008
- percent of total
Natural gas generation is offset by growth in coal, nuclear and renewable generation
57
15
16
9
2
billion kilowatthours
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Hydropower Geothermal MSW Biomass Solar Wind
2030: AEO2007
2030: AEO2008
Strongest growth in renewable electricity generation is in biomass and wind
billion kilowatthours
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 19
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AEO2008AEO2007
History Projection
U.S. electricity price follow pattern similar to delivered fuels used at power plants
2006 cents per kilowatthour
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 20
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric Power
Electricity
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
AEO20082030
AEO20072030
20065,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AEO2007
AEO2008
Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Total CO2 emissions in 2030 are down in AEO2008 with decline in energy consumption
million metric tons
Delivered, including losses
AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 21
Annual Energy Outlook 2008 reference case indicates that through 2030....
• U.S. energy demand grows at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent
• The energy efficiency of the economy improves at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent
• U.S. oil import dependence, measured as a share of U.S. oil use, does not increase over the next 25 years
• U.S. natural gas use declines over the last decade of the projection
• Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports
• Carbon dioxide emissions from energy grow at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent