Andy Stirling SPRU – science and technology policy research presentation to workshop on ‘… Management of Variation and Diversity’, Forum Chriesbach, Zurich, 15-8 April 2007 1: Diversity – much discussed but surprisingly little analysed 2: The nature of diversity and some different approaches Pathways, Politics and Diversity in the Governance of Technological Transition 3: A new general conceptual framework and heuristic explanatory / normative heuristic – destabilising / keystone concept (epistemic ‘niche’ not ‘landscape’) 4: Some implications: towards ‘Transition Portfolios’?
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Andy Stirling SPRU – science and technology policy research presentation to workshop on … Management of Variation and Diversity, Forum Chriesbach, Zurich,
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Andy Stirling SPRU – science and technology policy research
presentation to workshop on ‘… Management of Variation and Diversity’,
Forum Chriesbach, Zurich, 15-8 April 2007
1: Diversity – much discussed but surprisingly little analysed
2: The nature of diversity and some different approaches
Pathways, Politics and Diversity
in the Governance of Technological Transitions
3: A new general conceptual framework and heuristic
Conventional Approaches to Technological Diversity
- highly circumscribed in scope (eg: fuel prices)
- highly restrrictive assumptions (eg: normal probability distributions)
- assumes single objective characterisation of difference
- neglects variety
- neglects balance
need to address and explore variety, balance and disparity
ie: - number of options in the portfolio
- proportional representation of options in the portfolio
- degree to which options are different from each other
Towards a Complete, Integrated Diversity Concept
need to avoid sensitivities to arbitrary assumptions
eg: - when to start counting? when one option and when two?
- assumption that difference reduces to single parameter
- assumption uncertainty can be treated probabilistically
- assumption that past predicts future
- assumption that all data is normally distributed need symmetry on divergent contexts, views and dimensions
eg: - include wider economic, environmental and social criteria
- be flexible towards different values and priorities
For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context
option differences can be seen as dimensions in ‘disparity space’
Constructing a General Diversity Heuristic
number of dimensions represent different aspects of option disparity
Constructing a General Diversity Heuristic
For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context
option differences can be seen as dimensions in a ‘disparity space’
number of dimensions represent different aspects of option disparity
positions of options in space determined by any salient disparity attributes
eg: functions (Staffan / Marko)
features (Eva / Daniel)
capacities (Uli)
attributes (Fred)
In principle, this framework can address any perspective
on salient features of institutions, technologies, functions, networks or effects
Constructing a General Diversity Heuristic
For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context
option differences can be seen as dimensions in a ‘disparity space’
Distances between pairs of options represent their mutual disparity (da,b )
a
b
c
From Disparity to Diversity
For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context
option differences can be seen as dimensions in a ‘disparity space’
Distances between pairs of options represent their mutual disparity (da,b )
Disparity of a portfolio of options is given as a function of these pairwise distances
a
b
c
da,b db,c
and…
Variety and balance can be captured by weighting this by the product of the proportional importance in the system of each option in the pair (pi.pj) = .pi.pj ij (ij) dij
From Disparity to Diversity
For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context
option differences can be seen as dimensions in ‘disparity space’
1 Scaling of variety: where variety = 1, = 0
Formal Conditions for a General ‘Diversity Heuristic’
2 Monotonicity of variety: for equal B / D; rises monotonically with V
3 Monotonicity of balance: for given V / D; rises monotonically with B
4 Monotonicity of disparity: for given V / B; rises monotonically with D
5 Scaling of disparity: where aggregate difference = 0; = 0
6 Open Accommodation: is symmetric to any perspective on disparity
8 Parsimony of Form: has few components and simple structure
9 Explicit Aggregation: allows explicit weightings on V, B and D
7 Robust to Partitioning: is insensitive to aggregation on taxonomy
10 Ready Articulation: can be incorporated in portfolio performance
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
= ij dij.pi .pj
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
´ = ij (dij) .(pi .pj)
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
´ = ij (dij) .(pi .pj)
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
0 0
0 1
1 0
1 1
´
ij dij0
ij pi.pj
ij dij
ij dij.pi.pj
diversity property
variety
balance
disparity
diversity
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
10 Additional single term allows heuristic attention to interactions
(eg: Kornelia, Frans)
= ij dij.iij.pi .pj
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
75% CCGT 25% wind
PORTFOLIO A
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
10 Additional single term allows heuristic attention to
interactions
= ij dij.iij.pi .pj
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
75% CCGT 25% wind
PORTFOLIO A
+
+
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
10 Additional single term allows heuristic attention to
interactions
= ij dij.iij.pi .pj
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
75% CCGT 25% wind
PORTFOLIO A
+
+
75% nuclear 25% wind
PORTFOLIO B
value [ { A } ] > value [ { B } ]
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
10 Additional single term allows heuristic attention to
interactions
= ij dij.iij.pi .pj
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio relationships, system effects
ANALYSE PRIORITIESdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity – Performance Relationships
DELIBERATE OVER
FINDINGS
divergent assumptions
and perspectives
Look for Pareto dominance in all possible portfolios
under each particular perspective (eg: for three options)
diversity
aggregate portfolio performance
(economic, functions, sustainability)
dominant portfolios lie on this boundary
Mapping Links between Diversity and Performance
Results of a Schematic Energy Example
Identifies ‘efficient frontier’ for each perspective
portfolio
contribution
not optimisation – each perspective treated separately
max max
performance diversity
but a ‘heuristic’ – allows exploration of divergent perspectives
Reflexivity on Diversity in Analysis and Policy
Per
spec
tive
X
Per
spec
tive
Y
Per
spec
tive
Z
HEURISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS / CATALYST FOR REFLEXIVE DELIBERATION
Implications: towards ‘Transition Portfolios’?
• diversity is crucial in building & understanding technological transitions
- fosters innovation of a kind essential to radical infrastructure change- mitigates ‘autonomy’, ‘momentum’, ‘lock-in’ and ‘entrapment’- hedges ignorance, so helps promote resilience and precaution- accommodates divergent social interests and values
• diversity is not a ‘free lunch’, but analysis remains strangely neglected
therefore vulnerable to incoherent, rhetorical and expedient arguments
• ‘variety’, ‘balance’, ‘disparity’ are necessary properties of diversity
crucial issue is how to articulate these properties and strike a balance
between diversity and other aspects of science and technology portfolios
• heuristic framework for explanatory analysis and normative engagement
allows open, reflexive deliberation – engaging different perspectives• aids move from managerial view: unitary niches, single transition paths
towards reflexive, robust, accountable politics of transition portfolios
ANNEXES
functional application
Social, cultural, economic, historic and geographic studies converge
Diversity and Innovation
easily shown to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
= ij dij.pi .pj
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
1: if variety = 1; = 0
2: rises monotonically with variety
3: rises monotonically with balance
4: rises monotonically with disparity
5: if disparity = 0; = 0
6: accommodates any perspective on disparity
8: is simple and parsimonious
= ij dij.pi .pj
in particular: takes full account of disparity (criterion 9)
Easily shown to fulfill first eight quality criteria
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
coal gas wind coal gas wind
PORTFOLIO A PORTFOLIO B
70% 5% 25% 70% 25% 5%
{ A } > { B }
in particular: takes full account of disparity (criterion 9)
= ij dij.pi .pj
fulfils basic quality criteria outlined earlier
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
in particular: takes full account of disparity (criterion 9)
= ij dij.pi .pj
fulfils basic quality criteria outlined earlier
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
allows exploration of different weights on variety, balance, disparity