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1. Crisis, climate change, conflict or commercialization? The
future of pastoralism in the Horn of Africa Andy Catley September
2010
2. Dominant narratives, 2010
Pastoralism in crisis(again)
Unprecedented evidence that climate change drives pastoralist
vulnerability
Destitution, food aid, safety nets
The settlement narrative (still) especially government
Conflict, counter-insurgency, counter terrorism
Quiet narratives, 2010
Histories of pastoralism elsewhere (N Africa, Middle East)
Human population growth
Growing commercialization of livestock production & trade,
and benefits by wealth group
Land policy
3. History lessons
Pastoralist areas rarely absorb excess people. Excess people
are sloughed off - pushed out of pastoralism and pastoralist
areas
Commercialization and shifting livestock ownership from poor to
rich
Especially high export areas (Somalia, parts of Ethiopia and
Sudan)
Displacement processes e.g. Somali central rangeland, from
1980s
Declining access to rangeland e.g.
Private enclosure
Commercial (subsidized) irrigation
Bush encroachment
Farmers
Pastoralism survives in a more commercialized form larger herds
(units) owed by fewer people cf. trends in agriculture
elsewhere
4. Trend analysis, from 1922
Changes
Human population doubling every 25-35 years
Decreasing access to productive rangeland
- bush encroachment
cultivation
internal borders
Commercialization of pastoralism livestock assets from poor to
wealthier groups
OutcomesIncreasing impact of dry seasons and drought
Constants
Rainfall variability
Conflict
Land policies People moving up People moving out
5. Trends Somaliland, 1922 to 2009
6. Policy implications
Livestock exports for poverty reduction,but benefits mainly
wealthier herders, traders etc.
Safety nets and the economic logic of retaining increasing
numbers of destitute/poor in drylands
Alternative livelihoods for a few, but limited non-livestock
economic opportunities for most